According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the hydrogen peroxide market has been weak and stabilizing since mid April. On April 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 683 yuan/ton. On April 21st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide will be 686 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.49%.

Supply reduction, hydrogen peroxide market stabilizing
Since mid April, the terminal demand in the printing and papermaking industry has been average, and some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in supply pressure. The price of hydrogen peroxide has remained weak and stable, with the average domestic market price falling to around 680 yuan/ton and a price increase of 10-20 yuan/ton. The hydrogen peroxide market has rebounded, with improved market transactions and a slight increase in prices.
Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide analyst believes that at the end of April, the demand for terminal printing and papermaking industry increased, and the pressure on hydrogen peroxide supply decreased. It is expected that the market will rise in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of TDI in the domestic market has been continuously declining recently. Currently, the price of domestically produced TDI products is around 10000-10400 yuan/ton, while the price of Shanghai products is around 10500-10600 yuan/ton. The market has sufficient spot supply, but downstream demand continues to be poor. With an oversupply situation, the market atmosphere is pessimistic and there is a lack of trading volume. The news is bleak and lacks positive support, so it is expected that the TDI market will remain weak in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, there was a slight rebound in the price of lithium carbonate in mid April. As of the 14th of April, the average price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate was 70933 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.1% from the beginning of the month at 73966 yuan/ton and a decrease of 39.27% from the same period last year at 116800 yuan/ton; The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in China is 69333 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.37% from the beginning of the month at 72500 yuan/ton and a decrease of 36.27% from the same period last year at 108800 yuan/ton.

Low price selling of old inventory in the field
The inventory of the entire lithium battery industry chain increased by 2900 tons to 129000 tons compared to last week, with a significant increase in inventory at smelters to 51000 tons and downstream material factories to 39700 tons. Some traders sold off low-quality old inventory at prices lower than 300-500 yuan/ton for new goods, and some February battery grade lithium carbonate transaction prices even fell below 68000 yuan/ton, stimulating material factories to replenish inventory at low prices.
Tariff policies affect terminal shipments
The new round of mutual tariffs between China and the United States involves lithium battery cathode materials, with an 8% increase in export costs for ternary materials and a 5% increase for lithium iron phosphate materials, which may suppress overseas orders in the second quarter. According to estimates, tariff adjustments may lead to a reduction of 120000 tons in the annual export volume of lithium batteries, corresponding to a decrease of 18000 tons in demand for lithium carbonate.
The fundamental situation of oversupply remains unchanged
As production enterprises resume work and production, the social inventory of lithium carbonate continues to accumulate. Although some lithium salt factories with high costs have reduced production to varying degrees, the reduction is relatively limited. Domestic lithium carbonate production still maintains a high level of operation, and downstream demand growth has slightly slowed down. The pattern of excess lithium carbonate is difficult to change.
Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the lithium carbonate market is currently in a weak equilibrium state, and the short-term rebound is constrained by inventory pressure and weak demand. Prices will not experience a significant rebound, and it is expected to continue to bottom out and fluctuate. Specific market changes still need to be monitored.

Analysis: This week (4.7-11), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong was sluggish, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 5.93%. The main reason is that the maintenance equipment has resumed work one after another, and the supply side has shown loose performance. Coupled with the increase in urea to ammonia conversion by manufacturers, the supply has significantly increased, and the rise in ammonia volume has dragged down ammonia prices. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 200-300 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2600-2800 yuan/ton.

Prediction: In the near future, agricultural demand procurement will slow down, industrial demand will follow suit, and supply will be sufficient. However, supply pressure may partially ease in the later stage. On the one hand, the main production areas in the north will hover or tighten supply with low prices. From the demand side, agricultural demand may be affected by inventory consumption, and there is room for improvement in later orders. Industrial demand will follow suit. Taking all factors into consideration, liquid ammonia may stop falling next week, with price range fluctuations being the main trend.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for locally refined petroleum coke in March first fell and then rose, with prices falling overall. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries was 2387.50 yuan/ton on March 31 and 2545.00 yuan/ton on March 1, with a monthly decline of 6.19%.

Cost wise: The overall trend of international oil prices in March has declined. On the one hand, the United States is increasing its crude oil production, coupled with escalating trade tariffs that may suppress global economic growth, which is bearish for the international oil market. On the other hand, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has eased. If the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine ends, the US oil sanctions against Russia will also be relaxed, and international oil prices will fall due to this impact.

Supply side: In early March, the shipment of refined petroleum coke was poor, and there was a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream. Multiple parties mainly focused on purchasing for essential needs, which limited support for the petroleum coke market and led to a continuous decline in petroleum coke prices; In mid March, the transaction of petroleum coke in the local refining industry was good, with prices continuing to rise. Refinery petroleum coke shipments were still acceptable, and downstream carbon enterprises had good purchasing enthusiasm, which supported the petroleum coke industry; At the end of March, the shipment of petroleum coke from underground refineries was still acceptable, with prices fluctuating, mainly affected by changes in petroleum coke indicators from some refineries. Recently, imported petroleum coke has been gradually entering the port for storage, mainly consisting of medium and high sulfur petroleum coke. Traders are actively shipping, and the speed of port petroleum coke shipments is relatively fast.

On the demand side: In March, some silicon companies in certain regions experienced production shutdowns and reductions, while also resuming production and adding new capacity, resulting in a slight increase in overall supply of metallic silicon in the field. There is a certain supply pressure on the overall supply side of silicon metal, and the downstream demand for silicon metal is weak. The recovery of the demand side is slow, and the overall supply and demand transmission is hindered. The overall market confidence is poor, and the demand for petroleum coke in the silicon industry still exists.

In March, the market for medium sulfur calcined coke fluctuated and fell, mainly affected by the rise and fall of petroleum coke prices. The price of calcined coke fluctuated. Currently, the overall supply of calcined coke market is sufficient, and coupled with limited downstream demand, calcined coke is mainly on the sidelines.

In March, the comprehensive PMI of the domestic aluminum processing industry rose to 61.6% and entered the expansion zone. Policy dividends and peak season effects drove the recovery of aluminum consumption, and social inventories continued to decrease. As of March 31, 2025, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the mainstream domestic market was 806000 tons, which is 77000 tons lower than the social inventory of 883000 tons on February 27. Downstream aluminum uses carbon as the main demand in the petroleum coke market.

Market forecast: Currently, the benchmark price for pre baked anode procurement at a certain aluminum plant in Shandong province has risen in April. A new round of procurement will begin downstream in early April, and it is expected that petroleum coke will have an upward trend in the near future.

1、 Price trend
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash first rose and then fell in March. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1498 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1470 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 28 yuan/ton during the month, with an overall decline of 1.87%. On March 31, 2025, there were 0 products that rose, 4 products that fell, and 2 products that rose or fell in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are caustic soda (-0.90%), baking soda (-0.79%), and light soda ash (-0.68%). Today’s average increase or decrease is -0.5%.
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for soda ash this month first fell and then rose. With the recovery of maintenance equipment within the month, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity continues to increase, and the market supply of goods is sufficient. The sales pressure of spot soda ash plants has increased, while the overall downstream glass market is weak, and the consumption of inventory is slow. The demand for soda ash is average, and the overall soda ash price is weak and downward.
As of March 31, 2025, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is around 1330-1500 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price of light soda ash in Central China is around 1300-1500 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price of light soda ash in North China is around 1450-1570 yuan/ton.
On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of glass this month first fell and then rose. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 15.62 yuan/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 15.21 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 2.62%. The utilization rate of glass market production capacity has increased within the month, with sufficient spot supply and weak downstream market demand. Market trading is limited, and glass destocking is average, resulting in a weak price trend.
On April 1st, the Business Society’s soda ash to glass commodity price index was 82.28, a decrease of 0.56 points from yesterday, a decrease of 26.78% from the highest point of 112.37 points during the cycle (October 6, 2023), and an increase of 11.64% from the lowest point of 73.70 points on February 16, 2025. (Note: Cycle refers to January 1, 2012 to present)
Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the load of some domestic soda ash plants has increased, the utilization rate of production capacity is high, and the mentality of spot alkali factories is bearish. Recently, the price of light soda ash has weakened and fallen, and downstream demand for soda ash is weak. There is a lack of favorable market conditions, and it is expected that the price of soda ash will operate weakly in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

Under the constraints of difficult cost support and weak demand, the domestic phenol market experienced more declines and less gains in March. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 7897 yuan/ton on March 1st and 7275 yuan/ton on March 31st, a decrease of 7.88%.

With the replenishment of imported cargo at the beginning of the month, the port inventory increased to 25000 tons, and the decline in raw material pure benzene intensified at the beginning of the month, making it difficult to support the cost aspect. With sufficient supply, the phenol market was unable to support a rapid decline.
After the middle of the month, there was slight support in terms of cost, and Huaxi phenol shipments were gradually dispatched. Port inventories declined, and the market rebounded from the decline. However, overall demand was weak, and after a brief period of urgent procurement and replenishment, the market was difficult to support. With the further decline of raw material pure benzene, the phenol market had limited gains and entered a downward trend again.
As of the 31st, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:
Region/ 31 day quotation/ March’s ups and downs
East China region/ 7220./ -700
Shandong region/ 7250./ -650
Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 7300./ -600
South China region/ 7350./ -600
In March, China’s phenol production was 450400 tons, an increase of 27800 tons from February and a month on month increase of 6.58%. In March, there were 10 phenol ketone enterprises in China that underwent parking maintenance, involving a phenol production capacity of 2.07 million tons. The phenol loss of the parking enterprises was 96900 tons, and some units outside the parking were not fully operated. In March, the utilization rate of phenol production capacity in China increased by 1.60 percentage points month on month, reaching 77.75%.
Business Society predicts that the phenol market will mainly fluctuate within a certain range in April. On the one hand, we are concerned about the replenishment of imported goods. It is reported that Saudi Arabia’s phenol ketone plant plans to shut down in April, and the subsequent replenishment of imported goods may decrease. We will continue to follow Business Society’s information release for details. On the other hand, the situation of domestic phenol ketone plants seems to be basically stable, with a slight increase in supply, but the increment is limited and should not be significant. The supply of raw material pure benzene is sufficient, and the expected decrease in significant fluctuations. The demand for bisphenol A equipment is declining, and the demand may decrease. Overall, market fluctuations were predominant in April.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 24th to 28th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2720 yuan/ton to 2654 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 2.42% during the period, a month on month increase of 0.95%, and a year-on-year increase of 3.74%. The domestic methanol market is weakly consolidating. Some regions have abundant supply of goods and actively reduce inventory. The overall market trading atmosphere has weakened, with a decrease in the number of new orders signed by most companies, resulting in a general decline in pending orders.

As of the close on March 28th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2505 for methanol futures opened at 2563 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2573 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2525 yuan/ton. It closed at 2541 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 24 yuan or 0.94% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 782186 lots, the position is 691192 lots, and the daily increase position is -8908 lots.
In terms of cost, the supply of thermal coal in the market has been continuously loose recently, the recovery of domestic coal mining capacity has accelerated, the role of imported coal in supplementing has been strengthened, and the purchase prices of large coal enterprises and power plants have been continuously lowered. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.
Demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: increasing demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream acetic acid: Increased demand for acetic acid; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream chloride: Increased demand for chloride; Downstream formaldehyde: There are no plans to stop driving formaldehyde in the near future, and the demand fluctuation is not significant. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the supply side, the overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of March 27th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 367.50-368.50 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 94.00-95.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 318.50-319.50 euros/ton, down 10 euros/ton.
The future forecast is that the supply will remain abundant, and inventory will continue to be widely depleted. The traditional downstream demand continues to rebound, especially in the acetic acid industry, which has shown significant performance. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly focus on strong consolidation.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, this week (3.24-28), the PVC spot market reversed its decline and prices rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4930 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74% during the week.

2、 Market analysis
Supply side: The PVC spot market atmosphere has improved this week, reversing the decline in the first half of the year. Driven by the futures market, the spot market has significantly improved and prices have rebounded. The market performance has improved in terms of supply and demand, and the PVC operating rate has remained stable this week. Although some companies have taken actions to reduce their negative load in the early stage, the operating rate has slightly increased, but the market transaction volume has significantly improved. This is mainly based on the increase in trading volume and the improvement of market sentiment.
In terms of inventory, there has been a temporary increase in transaction volume in the market recently, and social inventory continues to decrease. However, considering the previously large basic inventory, the current spot supply side remains abundant.
On the cost side: The price of calcium carbide in the market remained stable this week, and the market entered a bottoming stage. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the price fluctuation of calcium carbide has been zero since March. Although there is no positive news on the cost side, the increase in downstream procurement volume has a certain stimulating effect, and the upstream and downstream linkage has led to a rebound trend in PVC prices. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electric aggregate in China is mostly around 4900-4950 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that PVC supply is relatively abundant in the short term, and the operating rate of manufacturers this week is generally higher than at the beginning of the month. Although enterprise inventory continues to decrease, the process is slow. The rebound of short-term futures market is mainly due to the improvement of market sentiment, and the lack of sustained improvement momentum in PVC fundamentals. As downstream procurement returns to rationality, the positive support effect is not significant. We should be cautious about the magnitude of the increase.

The price of ethylene glycol fell in March

The price of ethylene glycol will decrease in March 2025. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of March 26th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4551.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.29% from the average price of 4681.67 yuan/ton on March 1st.

On March 26, 2025, the basis of Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol spot contract remained basically stable, and the contract transaction price range for this week was 4500-4515 yuan/ton. This week’s spot contract basis price ranges from+36 to+38, next week’s spot contract basis price ranges from+43 to+45, and April’s spot contract basis price ranges from+74 to+75.

The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) per unit is 4170-4240 yuan/ton.

In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of March 25th, the landed price of ethylene glycol in China is 525-528 US dollars/ton, and the landed price of ethylene glycol in Southeast Asia is 536 US dollars/ton.

Port inventory fluctuated horizontally in March

From January to mid February, there was a significant accumulation of ethylene glycol inventory in the port, and in March, the port inventory fluctuated horizontally. On March 24, 2025, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 627600 tons, a decrease of 43600 tons from the total inventory of 671200 tons on March 3; The total inventory as of December 30, 2024 was 397300 tons, an increase of 230300 tons.

Recent favorable factors

Recently, international crude oil prices have stopped falling and rebounded, with cost drag slowing down. Coupled with the significant decline in ethylene glycol, the downward space has narrowed.

Recent bearish factors

There is news of a production reduction in downstream polyester, with weak terminal demand and doubts about the subsequent consumption demand for ethylene glycol.

Overall, it is expected that the probability of horizontal fluctuations in the future market of ethylene glycol will increase.