In October, the domestic epoxy propane market first rose and then consolidated. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of October 31st, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 7700 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.86% compared to October 1st.

Price influencing factors:
On the raw material side: In October, the market price of propylene raw material declined slightly, but the significant rebound in liquid chlorine prices increased the cost of the chlorohydrin process, putting greater pressure on production enterprises to incur losses and weakening their willingness to supply at low prices, resulting in an increase in the market price of epoxy propane in the first half of the month. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of October 31st, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6095.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.84% compared to the beginning of this month (6543.25 yuan/ton).
Supply side: In the first half of the month, major factories such as Lihua Yi underwent equipment maintenance, resulting in a decrease in spot circulation and a reduction in market supply, leading to a significant increase in the market price of epoxy propane. In the second half of the month, due to the reduction of refinery maintenance and the gradual resumption of production by previous maintenance companies, the domestic supply of epichlorohydrin has increased. The market price of epichlorohydrin has declined in the second half of the month.
Demand side: The downstream demand side showed weak performance in October, and polyether enterprises held onto rigid demand procurement in multiple dimensions, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The demand side has limited support for the epoxy propane market. The demand follow-up in the first half of the month was relatively concentrated, but the order volume decreased in the second half, and the trading atmosphere was relatively cold. Overall, the demand side’s support for epoxy propane has weakened, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market will consolidate and operate in the later stage.
Market forecast:
An epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the market price of propylene on the raw material side has declined, providing weak support for epoxy propane. Downstream demand is weak, and rigid demand is the main focus, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. In addition, the restart of the Lihua Yi plant has increased market supply, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market will mainly consolidate and operate in the later stage. More attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

In October, the domestic ABS market was weak and spread, and most spot prices of various grades were lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 31st, the average price of ABS sample products was 9145 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -7.16% compared to early October.

Fundamental analysis
Supply level: During October, the overall operating rate of the domestic ABS industry remained stable with small fluctuations. Shandong Haijiang, which was originally scheduled to restart at the end of September, has been postponed to start driving on early October 5th. Since then, except for Haijiang, which has reduced its load to 60% again in late September, no other maintenance tasks for aggregation plants have been announced. The industry load level has been slightly raised to around 73%. The average weekly output remains stable at over 140000 tons. On the other hand, the news of Huajin Chemical restarting the front line and Zhejiang Petrochemical’s production increase plan have both pushed up supply expectations. The on-site supply remains abundant, and the inventory position of the aggregation enterprise is close to 260000 tons, holding firm at a high level. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and the supply side’s support for ABS spot prices continues to be weak.
Cost factor: The overall weakness of the ABS upstream three materials market in October has a negative impact on the ABS cost side. Among them, the overall supply of acrylonitrile is loose and the reduction in burden is rare, while the overall demand remains weak and rigid. Buying and purchasing are mainly done as needed, and manufacturers continue to lower prices, resulting in a gradual decline in acrylonitrile. The changes in the future supply side are the direct factors that determine whether the market can truly bottom out, and it is recommended to closely monitor them.
The domestic butadiene market experienced a broad decline in October. After the holiday, the overall operation of the butadiene market was weak, and the ex factory prices of domestic main refineries were generally significantly reduced. The overall performance of downstream demand side is poor, the trend of synthetic rubber market is weak, the enthusiasm for entering the market is low, and the purchasing intention is weak. By the end of the month, under the dual impact of the restart of maintenance equipment and the production of new production capacity, the degree of supply looseness has once again increased, and the external market continues to decline. There are many negative factors in the market, and it is expected that the butadiene market will continue to operate weakly in the near future, with a focus on downstream demand.
The styrene market fluctuated and fell in October, with both new plant production and fluctuations within the range. Overall supply was loose, and port inventories remained high. The price of raw material pure benzene followed the weak trend of crude oil and fell weakly, with limited rebound. The operating rate of downstream industries has slightly rebounded, providing some support, but there has been no significant increase in orders for terminal home appliances and other fields. Market follow-up is limited, and procurement enthusiasm is not high, with overall rigid demand as the main factor. At the end of the month, styrene has fallen to a low level. In the short term, the supply and demand of styrene remain weak, and the styrene market may still be prone to decline but difficult to rise in the future.
On the demand side: In the medium to long term, the downstream factories of ABS have had average loads. In October, the aggregation plant experienced a double period of inventory accumulation, resulting in increased shipping pressure. On the other hand, due to the weakened profitability of terminal enterprises and the drag of US trade barriers, the consumption of the main downstream electrical appliance shell industry is still in a dormant state, and there is no increase in production scheduling. The cautious atmosphere in the external market remains unchanged, and the industry’s export situation is poor. The overall stocking logic still maintains the urgent need for replenishment, and the flow rate of goods is slow. The inventory position of merchants is also high, and under the increasing pressure of on-site sales, enterprises and merchants continue to offer discounts and take orders. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side’s support for the ABS market.

Future forecast
The domestic ABS market continued to decline in October. The production load of the aggregation plant has been increased, but there has been no increase in consumer demand. Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the long-term drag on spot prices of ABS due to supply and demand contradictions makes it difficult for the market momentum to improve. However, in October, all three upstream indicators fell, and the fundamentals of the future market are unlikely to show positive results. Many industry players have a bearish mentality. It is expected that there will still be downward pressure on ABS in the short term.

The price trend of domestic fluorite in October has declined slightly. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3537.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.01% from the beginning of the month at 3610 yuan/ton, and an increase of 0.71% year-on-year.

Supply side: Low level fluorite in stock is normal for mining operations
The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is still tight, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to reform fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operating rate of fluorite enterprises. The operating rate of some mines in the south is relatively low, and the supply of fluorite enterprises in the field is tight. However, due to the mentality of buying up rather than buying down, the purchasing intention of merchants in the field is not obvious, and the fluorite market. With the decrease in temperature in the north, the winter shutdown period for mines and beneficiation plants in the northern region is approaching, and market supply is further tightening. At the same time, demand is not improving, and the supply and demand sides continue to play a game, causing the fluorite market to fall from a high level.
Demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid has declined, and the refrigerant market is still acceptable
In October, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid declined, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China was negotiated at 12000-12500 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid units are still shut down, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, while hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. Recently, hydrofluoric acid merchants have not been actively purchasing, and the fluorite market is in a fierce game between supply and demand, falling into a “price but no market” deadlock. In the absence of strong demand support, the price of fluorite market has rebounded.
The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal is still promising, and the terminal policies of the refrigerant industry are being strengthened. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement, and fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of high price procurement is relatively slow, but the industry’s inventory is transmitting in a positive and orderly manner, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The trend of refrigerant market has increased, but caution is still held towards upstream procurement. Hydrofluoric acid enterprises are cautious in procurement, and the price of fluorite market is declining.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market. In addition, the supply of fluorite in the north will become tighter in the later period. However, downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises will mainly purchase on demand, and demand has not actually improved. The fierce game between supply and demand, overall, the fluorite market price is mainly volatile in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 12766 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it was 12633/ton, a decrease of 1.04% in price.

Domestic manufacturers’ quotations for activated carbon have fallen this month, with the ex factory price of coconut shell water purification activated carbon (iodine value 1000) ranging from 11000 to 13500 yuan/ton. The demand for coconut shell activated carbon in traditional fields such as water treatment and air purification continues to grow, and high prices limit the enthusiasm for transactions, resulting in lower than expected transactions in the activated carbon market.
With the implementation of production expansion plans in major producing countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines, as well as the popularization of alternative raw material technologies, prices may fall. Currently, raw material supply is tight, and the main production areas in Southeast Asia are affected by natural disasters and planting structure adjustments, resulting in a decrease in coconut production, a shortage of carbonization materials, an increase in processing enterprises in production areas, and intensified competition, leading to a rise in raw material prices.
Prediction: High prices of coconut shell activated carbon in China limit transactions, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 28th, the price of ethyl acetate was 5473.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26.67 yuan/ton or 0.48% compared to the price of 5500.00 yuan/ton on October 21st. The production of ethyl acetate plant has increased, but downstream purchasing follow-up is limited, resulting in a decline in raw material prices and a weak downward trend in the ethyl acetate market.

Recently, some of the maintenance facilities for ethyl acetate in China have resumed operation, resulting in an increase in on-site capacity utilization and market inventory. The intention of enterprises to ship is more obvious, and the price of raw material acetic acid continues to fall. The weak cost support has had a negative impact on the market atmosphere for ethyl acetate. At the same time, downstream buyers are cautious when entering the market, and demand performance is average. The mentality of ethyl acetate enterprises is weak, and the focus of negotiations has shifted downward.
In the future, downstream consumption of ethyl acetate is slow, actual market trading is limited, and inventory and shipment pressure of enterprises may increase. The upstream acetic acid market is weak, and cost support is insufficient. It is expected that the short-term price of ethyl acetate will continue to operate weakly. Specific attention should be paid to device fluctuations and downstream follow-up in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of pure benzene in Shandong Province first fell and then rose this week, indicating an overall decline in prices. On Monday, the price of pure benzene was 5318.67 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 5305.33 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.25% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Pure benzene: This week, Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China have lowered the price of pure benzene by 200 yuan to 5450 yuan/ton. Recently, there have been reports of maintenance plans for market supply equipment, which has increased the purchasing enthusiasm of traders. In addition, yesterday’s increase in crude oil prices and the rise in external pure benzene prices have boosted confidence in the market, resulting in a slight increase in pure benzene market prices today.
Downstream aspects
3、 Future forecast
Crude oil futures: On October 23rd, international crude oil futures rose sharply. The settlement price of the December WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $61.79 per barrel, an increase of $3.29 or 5.6%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December was $65.99 per barrel, an increase of $3.40 or 5.4%.
Foreign pure benzene: On October 23rd, FOB Korea rose by 11 to 677 US dollars per ton, and CFR China rose by 10 to 692 US dollars per ton. FOB Rotterdam rose by $17 to $676 per ton, while FOB US Gulf rose by $1 to $247 per gallon.
Overall forecast: Short term pure benzene prices are expected to experience strong fluctuations, with cautious trading. Observe the cost and demand side news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

The domestic fluorite price trend has slightly declined this week, with an average price of 3625 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of 0.68% from the early week price of 3650 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 4.50%.
Supply side: Low level fluorite in stock is normal for mining operations

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is still tight, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department needs to reform fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operating rate of fluorite enterprises. The operating rate of some mines in the south is relatively low, and the supply of fluorite enterprises in the field is tight, leading to obvious intentions of holders to raise prices. As the temperature in the north drops, the winter shutdown period for mines and beneficiation plants in the northern region is approaching, further tightening market supply and maintaining a high level of fluorite market.
Demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable, and the refrigerant market is average
This week, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has remained stable, with mainstream prices ranging from 12200-12700 yuan/ton in various regions of China. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. Recently, hydrofluoric acid merchants have not been actively purchasing, and the fluorite market is in a fierce game between supply and demand, falling into a “price but no market” deadlock, in the absence of strong demand support. The price of fluorite market has weakened and rebounded.
The downstream refrigerant market continues to rise, and the refrigerant industry is strengthening its terminal policies. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement, and fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of purchasing at high prices is relatively slow, but the good inventory of the industry is orderly transmitted, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The trend of refrigerant market has increased, but caution is still held towards upstream procurement, and the price of fluorite market has slightly decreased.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market. In addition, the supply of fluorite in the north will become tighter in the later period. However, downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises will mainly purchase on demand, and demand has not actually improved. The fierce game between supply and demand, overall, the fluorite market price is mainly volatile in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 17th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 1582 yuan/ton, which is 0.64% higher than the reference average price of 1572 yuan/ton on October 13th.
2、 Market analysis
market situation
This week, the domestic urea market prices have slightly increased. This week, the urea futures market price has risen, and the spot market has followed the fluctuations of the futures market. As of October 17th, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1520-1590 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1550-1590 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1510-1570 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1580 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1620 yuan/ton.
supply and demand situation
This week, the supply and demand of the domestic urea market remained stable. In terms of supply, the daily production of urea is still high, and the market supply is sufficient. In terms of demand, the autumn procurement is coming to an end, and downstream consumers are following up on the low price of urea, creating a good market trading atmosphere.
3、 Future forecast
The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic urea market has been stabilizing recently. At present, there is no significant change in the supply and demand of the urea market, inventory remains high, and terminal demand still needs to be released. It is expected that the short-term fluctuation and consolidation of domestic urea prices will be the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from October 13th to 17th, the domestic aggregated MDI market experienced a slight decline, with an average price of 14633 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 14500 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.91% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 20.36%. The performance of the MDI aggregation market during the week was average, with mainstream manufacturers lowering prices and traders frequently offering low prices. The messaging platform is relatively quiet, with insufficient support and low downstream demand, mainly consisting of small transactions. The mentality of the industry is relatively pessimistic, and prices continue to decline.

On the supply side, the 200000 ton/year MDI in Jinhu, South Korea will undergo maintenance in early September, with a duration of 20-30 days. Wanhua Ningbo has a maintenance plan in November, and the rest of the equipment is running smoothly.
On the cost side, the pure benzene market has been weak and declining this week, exacerbating the supply-demand contradiction. Domestic pure benzene inventories remain high, and downstream industries such as phenol and aniline are generally in a loss making state. Only caprolactam maintains rigid procurement supported by textile demand, and the fundamentals are weak and difficult to change.
On the demand side, the downstream market is not prosperous during the peak season, and the market situation has not improved significantly. With weak fundamentals, the aggregated MDI market is difficult to pick up.
Future forecast: Currently, the production of suppliers is stable, and the filling of goods is stable. In the face of cold news and weak demand, it is expected that the aggregated MDI market will maintain a weak trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on October 16th was 1063 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.76% compared to the average price of 960 yuan/ton on October 9th.
2、 Market analysis
supply and demand situation
The price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has continued to rise this week. This week, the internal level operating rate has decreased, the market supply has decreased, and the coking level operating rate has remained stable. The demand for downstream replenishment has increased after the holiday, and the market transaction atmosphere is good. This week, the market supply has decreased, and manufacturers are mainly raising prices. At present, the ammonium sulfate market maintains an optimistic attitude, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm has not decreased. The price of ammonium sulfate in the market continues to rise.
market situation
As of October 16th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 1000 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1020-1080 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts of ammonium sulfate believe that the market trend of ammonium sulfate has been relatively strong recently. At present, the demand for ammonium sulfate in the market is increasing, and with the continuous rise, the cautious mentality has increased. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will be relatively strong in the short term and will continue to consolidate and operate.