1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the isopropanol market has slightly decreased this week. The average price of isopropanol in China was 6690 yuan/ton on Monday and 6670 yuan/ton on Friday, with a price reduction of 0.3%.

The isopropanol market has slightly decreased this week. The market for acetone on the raw material side has declined, with average cost support. The attitude of the cargo holder is still acceptable, the quotation remains at the previous level, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream market. They are cautious when picking up goods due to urgent needs and are cautious when placing actual orders. The majority of isopropanol market prices in Shandong region are around 6600-6700 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol market prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 6650-6700 yuan/ton, while prices in the South China region are around 7050-7100 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the market price of acetone has fallen this week. The average price of acetone on Monday was 5890 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 5857.5 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.55%. Market participants are mainly cautious and observing, with quotes maintaining range fluctuations and actual orders being cautious.

In terms of raw material propylene, the propylene market has been fluctuating this week. On Monday, the average domestic propylene price was 6843.25 yuan/ton, and on Friday, the average price was 6843.25 yuan/ton, unchanged. At present, inventory is low, downstream demand is good, the focus of propylene offers has increased, and market trading is still acceptable.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the isopropanol market has slightly decreased this week. The market for acetone on the raw material side has declined, while propylene has fluctuated within the range, with average cost support. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and actual orders are handled with caution. It is expected that the isopropanol market will experience slight fluctuations within the short-term range.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has been raised twice recently, with a 100 yuan/ton increase on Thursday and a 100 yuan/ton increase on Friday. As of this Friday, the spot price of aniline in East China has risen to 9450 yuan/ton, with acceptance of 9550 yuan/ton. It is reported that due to the continuous rise in the price of raw material pure benzene, aniline enterprises have reduced their profits and faced losses. Factories have rationally pushed up prices, and downstream market entry enthusiasm is still acceptable. It is expected that there will be limited room for aniline to continue to rise in the short term, and the main focus will be on digesting the increase.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic BDO market first rose and then fell. From November 1st to 29th, the MTBE price first rose from 8664 yuan/ton and then fell to 8624 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.25% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 10.24%.

In the first half of the month, there were frequent fluctuations in the operation and maintenance of the equipment, with a mainly wait-and-see attitude. The industry continues to suffer losses, and suppliers actively support the market, limiting the room for market price fluctuations. The overall downstream demand is average, and there is a game between supply and demand, resulting in a stalemate in the focus of the domestic BDO market.

In mid month, the domestic BDO market remained on the sidelines, with orders in urgent need being delivered. At present, it is in a period of transition between the old and new cycles, lacking clear news guidance. Industry players are mostly holding steady and observing, while spot negotiations are light, and the overall market situation is temporarily stable.

At the end of the month, although the existing equipment was replaced, the temporary faulty equipment was restarted and some equipment was put into negative operation, resulting in an increase in industry capacity utilization and a weakening of supply side support. Downstream industry contracts are following up, spot trading is light, holders are cautious, and the market focus is stable with a downward trend.

Supply side: In terms of equipment, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has significantly improved, the market supply has increased, and the expected increase in market supply of goods has weakened supply side support.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The power restrictions in Inner Mongolia have eased, and the market supply capacity has increased. With the rise in prices in the early stage, trade inversion has led to a trading environment list. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market was relatively strong in September, and the cost of BDO was influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, most downstream industries such as PTMEG, PBAT, and polyurethane have reduced production loads due to equipment load reduction or maintenance, resulting in a decrease in raw material digestion. The demand side of BDO is negatively affected.

In the future market forecast, the supply of goods in the market will increase, while the pace of downstream demand will follow suit. Spot trading volume will be light, and the supply-demand contradiction will intensify. The BDO analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic BDO market is weak and consolidating.

Analysis: This week (11.25-29), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong continued to be sluggish, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 2.22%. The main reason for the loose supply performance is that the early maintenance equipment has gradually resumed, the manufacturer’s operating rate has increased, and coupled with the increase in the manufacturer’s urea to ammonia conversion volume, the supply has significantly increased. The increase in ammonia volume has put pressure on the price of liquid ammonia. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 50-150 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2650-2800 yuan/ton.

Prediction: As winter approaches and fertilizer procurement is off-season, downstream operating rates will significantly decrease, industrial demand will follow suit, and supply will be sufficient. In the later stage, supply pressure may be partially alleviated. On the one hand, operating rates will decline with lower prices. In addition, rainy and snowy weather in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and other areas may put pressure on transportation, and local supply may be scarce. Taking all factors into consideration, liquid ammonia may stop falling next week, but local localization may bring about price fluctuations.

This week, the epoxy propane market hit bottom and rebounded. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8505 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.31% compared to the beginning of this week (8617.5 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: From November to December at the end of the year, maintenance will be concentrated in the East China region. The 400000 tons/year HPPO unit in the Lianyungang region will be shut down for maintenance on November 11th, with an estimated 45 days. The 270000 tons/year PO/SM unit in Zhejiang Petrochemical may also be scheduled for maintenance in mid November, with only the 200000 tons/year PO/SM unit in Shenghong operating normally. The market supply is tight, and the epoxy propane market is rising in price.

Raw material side: The price of liquid chloropropene on the raw material side fluctuates, and the cost side of epoxy propane enterprises is under high pressure. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6825.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59% compared to the beginning of this month (6785.75 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: Insufficient follow-up on downstream procurement, sluggish actual market transactions, and a focus on essential procurement, cautious observation.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that the market supply is tight, downstream procurement follow-up is insufficient, and a wait-and-see attitude is strong. Demand based procurement is the main focus, and it is expected that the short-term epoxy propane market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. More attention should be paid to market news guidance.

The price of plasticizer DOP first rose and then fell in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 27th, the DOP price was 9176.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.93% compared to the DOP price of 9551.25 yuan/ton on November 14th; Compared to November 1st, the DOP price of 9101.25 yuan/ton first rose and then fell, with an increase of 0.82%. The equipment of isooctanol enterprises stopped short, and the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell. The cost of plasticizers increased, and the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises remained stable, with sufficient supply of plasticizers. The downstream PVC off-season is approaching, and the demand for plasticizers is falling, causing the price of plasticizer DOP to rise first and then fall.

Downstream demand declines

Downstream PVC product enterprises are gradually experiencing a decline in production, and as we enter November, the traditional off-season in the market, downstream PVC production is expected to decrease. As the weather in the north gradually turns cold, demand is weak; The downstream market is declining, and the downward pressure on plasticizers is increasing.

The cost of raw materials first increased and then decreased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 27th, the price of isooctanol was 9300 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.78% compared to the price of 9766.67 yuan/ton on November 14th; Compared to November 1st, the price of isooctanol at 9033.33 yuan/ton first increased and then decreased, with a rise of 2.95%. In mid November, the equipment of isooctanol enterprises experienced a short shutdown, resulting in a decrease in isooctanol supply and a fluctuating rise in isooctanol prices. During the off-season of the market, the demand support for isooctanol is insufficient, and the supply of isooctanol is weakened. The demand is average, and the price of isooctanol first rises and then falls.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, and the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased; In terms of demand, the off-season is approaching, and downstream production and inventory are expected to decrease, leading to a decline in demand for plasticizers. In the future, the prices of raw materials will fluctuate and fall, the downward pressure of isooctanol will increase, and the cost of plasticizers will decrease; The off-season is approaching, and demand expectations are decreasing, resulting in cost reduction and weak demand. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market remained stable this week. As of November 24th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 6260 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price on November 18th.

In terms of supply, the operating rate of maleic anhydride remained stable this week, while Wanhua began to increase its burden. The resumption time of production for the Qingdao plant has not yet been determined; This week, the prices of the main factories for maleic anhydride have increased, while dealer quotations remain stable. The market is cautious in chasing higher prices, and new orders with urgent needs are mainly being followed up. As of November 24th, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 5500 yuan/ton.

Upstream: The international crude oil market has risen this week, while the n-butane market is weak. As of November 24th, the price in Shandong is around 5150 yuan/ton.

Downstream: The unsaturated resin market remained stable this week, with downstream essential purchases being the main focus. There is limited support for unsaturated resin, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that downstream unsaturated resins maintain a strong demand and provide limited support for the maleic anhydride market; In the early stage, the ex factory price of maleic anhydride increased, and the dealer price slightly followed suit. Currently, downstream buyers are cautious about chasing higher prices, and first-time purchases are the main focus. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 18th to 22nd, the domestic ethanol price remained at 5520 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 18.52%. The domestic ethanol market is experiencing a weak decline, with some previously shut down maintenance facilities resuming production and the operating load gradually increasing, resulting in an increase in spot supply; The prices of raw corn production areas are fluctuating, but the demand side support is flat, with accompanying replenishment being the main trend, and the ethanol market price is weak and stagnant.

In terms of cost, domestic corn prices have fluctuated and stabilized. As the weather gradually turns colder in production areas, the quality of new grain is gradually recovering, and farmers’ reluctance to sell is becoming stronger. Traders’ purchase prices have stabilized after a slight increase. The impact of ethanol cost is mixed.

On the supply side, the supply in various regions remains stable with small fluctuations. The Fukang Fourth Line, Heilongjiang Shenglong, and Dongfeng Hualiang facilities have resumed production, and the operating load is gradually increasing. Some areas may see an increase in spot supply. There are hardly any favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

Demand side, demand side Baijiu consumption support is acceptable; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; There is not much change in the production of ethyl acetate. The impact of short-term ethanol demand is mostly stable.

In the future, it is predicted that the supply side spot supply will rise by a narrow margin, the demand side Baijiu consumption will not change much, and the overall production and sales will be slightly flat. The ethanol analysts of the business community predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will mainly operate weakly and stably.

Ethylene glycol prices fall in November

The price of ethylene glycol fell in November. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of November 19th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4583.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01% from the average price of 4630 yuan/ton on November 1st.

On November 19, 2024, the spot operating price of ethylene glycol at the port was between 4570-4590 yuan/ton. The basis of the ethylene glycol spot contract at the port remained stable during the day, with a slight increase. In the morning session, the basis price of the spot contract for this week was+39 to+42, in the afternoon session it was+40 to+42, and in the lower session of November, the basis price was+42 to+44.

On November 19th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4230-4350 yuan/ton, including taxes.

On November 18, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $535/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $548/ton.

The weak performance of ethylene glycol prices in November is mainly due to the following two factors. Firstly, there is an expectation of a rebound in port inventory; Secondly, there is an expectation of an increase in the domestic ethylene glycol production rate.

The expectation of a rebound in port inventory remains high

The explicit inventory data of ethylene glycol at the port is still relatively low, but there is an expectation of an increase in recent arrivals. Last week, the total amount of goods received at the main port was about 119000 tons, with concentrated arrivals and a slight increase in inventory. Next week, the total planned arrival at the main port is 157000 tons, with 20000 tons at other ports; As of November 18, 2024, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in major ports in East China was 575300 tons, up from 525400 tons on October 4, with a cumulative inventory of 49900 tons. This week, it is expected that there will be a large amount of ethylene glycol arriving at the port, and there is still an expectation of a rebound in port inventory.

Domestic supply rebounds

On the supply side, due to the impact of price recovery factors in the early stage, the total operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol began to recover, and the operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol slightly increased, resulting in a slight increase in production.

Demand side: The downstream polyester load is relatively high, and the filament maintains a high operating load, with little room for further improvement. Terminal autumn and winter orders have still fallen short of expectations recently, with no improvement seen in the short term.

Future expectations

The previous surge in ethylene glycol prices was mainly due to favorable domestic macroeconomic conditions, coupled with low port supply; In addition, the resonance of rising prices in the polyester sector has caused the price of ethylene glycol to climb to a high level for the year.

Recently, international crude oil prices have weakened and cost support has been weak. Coupled with the concentration of ports, inventory data has shown a short-term upward trend, and ethylene glycol prices have begun to fall.

The future price variables of ethylene glycol mainly depend on overseas supply and cost support, and it is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will fluctuate weakly in the short term.

This week (11.9-11.18), dichloromethane continued to rise, reaching a new high for the year. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 17th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 3180 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 8.35%, a 20% increase from the beginning of the month, and a 32.36% increase from the beginning of the year. Today, there are signs of a decline in the market.

Dichloromethane continues to rise, with reduced production load on the supply side and increased raw material prices on the cost side, resulting in firm quotes from manufacturers. At present, the market trading sentiment is weak, and traders are under great pressure to ship. The market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and there are signs of a decline in ex factory prices today. As of November 18th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region is around 3130-3170 yuan/ton.

On the supply side: Within the week, the main manufacturers have reduced their operations to 20% and now maintain 50%. Supply is tight and manufacturers have no inventory pressure. The manufacturer has resumed production due to scheduled maintenance on the 17th, and the rise in dichloromethane has been hindered.

In terms of raw materials: The rise in raw materials is favorable for dichloromethane, while the methanol market is slightly sluggish. Supply pressure is still present, and the upward drive is weak. As of November 18th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2510 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.18% from the beginning of the month. The liquid chlorine market in Shandong continues to rise, but with a narrow increase in operating rates, supply will increase.

In terms of demand: Dichloromethane is widely used, and it is often purchased as needed and restocked at low prices. The refrigerant market continues to have good production and sales, and refrigerant prices are running steadily. R32 maintains a tight supply situation, with factories showing reluctance to sell and controlling orders, resulting in continued high refrigerant prices in the future.

Business analysts believe that the maintenance of enterprise equipment fluctuates narrowly, the driving force of raw material prices is weak, and the demand side urgently needs to purchase. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will consolidate in the short term.