1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 17th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 1582 yuan/ton, which is 0.64% higher than the reference average price of 1572 yuan/ton on October 13th.
2、 Market analysis
market situation
This week, the domestic urea market prices have slightly increased. This week, the urea futures market price has risen, and the spot market has followed the fluctuations of the futures market. As of October 17th, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1520-1590 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1550-1590 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1510-1570 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1580 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1620 yuan/ton.
supply and demand situation
This week, the supply and demand of the domestic urea market remained stable. In terms of supply, the daily production of urea is still high, and the market supply is sufficient. In terms of demand, the autumn procurement is coming to an end, and downstream consumers are following up on the low price of urea, creating a good market trading atmosphere.
3、 Future forecast
The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic urea market has been stabilizing recently. At present, there is no significant change in the supply and demand of the urea market, inventory remains high, and terminal demand still needs to be released. It is expected that the short-term fluctuation and consolidation of domestic urea prices will be the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from October 13th to 17th, the domestic aggregated MDI market experienced a slight decline, with an average price of 14633 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 14500 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.91% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 20.36%. The performance of the MDI aggregation market during the week was average, with mainstream manufacturers lowering prices and traders frequently offering low prices. The messaging platform is relatively quiet, with insufficient support and low downstream demand, mainly consisting of small transactions. The mentality of the industry is relatively pessimistic, and prices continue to decline.

On the supply side, the 200000 ton/year MDI in Jinhu, South Korea will undergo maintenance in early September, with a duration of 20-30 days. Wanhua Ningbo has a maintenance plan in November, and the rest of the equipment is running smoothly.
On the cost side, the pure benzene market has been weak and declining this week, exacerbating the supply-demand contradiction. Domestic pure benzene inventories remain high, and downstream industries such as phenol and aniline are generally in a loss making state. Only caprolactam maintains rigid procurement supported by textile demand, and the fundamentals are weak and difficult to change.
On the demand side, the downstream market is not prosperous during the peak season, and the market situation has not improved significantly. With weak fundamentals, the aggregated MDI market is difficult to pick up.
Future forecast: Currently, the production of suppliers is stable, and the filling of goods is stable. In the face of cold news and weak demand, it is expected that the aggregated MDI market will maintain a weak trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on October 16th was 1063 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.76% compared to the average price of 960 yuan/ton on October 9th.
2、 Market analysis
supply and demand situation
The price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market has continued to rise this week. This week, the internal level operating rate has decreased, the market supply has decreased, and the coking level operating rate has remained stable. The demand for downstream replenishment has increased after the holiday, and the market transaction atmosphere is good. This week, the market supply has decreased, and manufacturers are mainly raising prices. At present, the ammonium sulfate market maintains an optimistic attitude, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm has not decreased. The price of ammonium sulfate in the market continues to rise.
market situation
As of October 16th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 1000 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1020-1080 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts of ammonium sulfate believe that the market trend of ammonium sulfate has been relatively strong recently. At present, the demand for ammonium sulfate in the market is increasing, and with the continuous rise, the cautious mentality has increased. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will be relatively strong in the short term and will continue to consolidate and operate.

In September, the overall domestic ABS market situation was weak, and most spot prices of various grades were lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the average price of ABS sample products was 9850 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -2.48% compared to early September.

Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Since September, the domestic ABS industry has experienced a combination of load reduction and restart, with overall load being high, stable, and fluctuating. At the beginning of the month, due to the poor profit situation of the aggregation plant, some enterprises had cost maintenance operations, but the magnitude was relatively narrow. In the middle of the month, aggregation plants such as Tianjin Dagu experienced a return to production capacity, while some enterprises experienced an increase in load in the later part of the month. The industry’s load level fluctuated and remained at around 70% at the end of the month, with limited changes in domestic equipment dynamics compared to the beginning of the month. The average weekly output is over 140000 tons, and the inventory position of the aggregation enterprise is at a high level of 240000 tons, with ample supply maintained on site. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and industry inventory is relatively controllable. Overall, the supply side has weak support for ABS spot prices.
Cost factor: In September, the ABS upstream three material market was generally weak, which had a negative impact on the ABS cost side. At the beginning of the month, the supply of acrylonitrile in the East China region decreased and prices increased. However, the follow-up of spot transactions is relatively slow, and the northern maintenance equipment is gradually recovering, so the spot prices will stop rising and fall in the second half of the month. However, spot buying remains in a state of rigid demand, resulting in limited demand growth and a temporary market downturn. However, considering cost pressures and future stocking expectations, the market’s downward space in the short term is still limited.
The domestic butadiene market experienced a stepwise decline in September. Within the range, the load of Sinopec’s factories has steadily increased, while the listed prices of butadiene by various sales companies have loosened and fallen. Combined with the weak trend of the downstream synthetic rubber market, the enthusiasm of buyers to enter the market is low, and the weak demand side is expected to have a weak and volatile trend in the butadiene market in the short term, with a focus on post holiday procurement demand.
Styrene fluctuated in September. Domestic factories are operating at a high level, with sufficient supply of goods on site and rising port inventories. Downstream stocking into the market is cautious, and traders are watching closely, resulting in weak transactions. The raw material pure benzene market continues to decline, and in the future, the volatility of crude oil and raw materials may be limited. With weak fundamentals, it is expected that styrene will continue to operate at a low level in the short term.
On the demand side: In the medium to long term, the downstream factories of ABS have had average loads. The market in September was not prosperous during the peak season, and the characteristics of the off-season were still significant. The terminal enterprise’s pre holiday stocking has not been initiated yet, and the logic still maintains the urgent need for supplementary orders. The consumption of the main downstream electrical appliance shell industry is quiet, and there is no increase in production scheduling. The cautious atmosphere in the external market remains unchanged, and the flow of goods is slow. Domestic inventory levels remain strong at high levels, supply continues to be loose, and there is increased pressure to sell on the market. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side’s support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
In September, the domestic ABS market remained weak. The overall weakness of the upstream three materials is due to the high and stable production load of the ABS polymerization plant, with little fluctuation, and no increase in consumer demand. Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the long-term drag on spot prices of ABS due to supply and demand contradictions makes it difficult for the market momentum to improve. The industry load is expected to increase in the future, and many businesses are bearish, with a tendency for merchants to lower prices and sell more goods. It is expected that ABS may continue to decline in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 28th, the price of ethyl acetate was 5390.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.50% compared to the price of 5363.33 yuan/ton on September 22nd. The price of acetic acid continues to be strong, and the raw material market is boosted positively. Supply side production has increased, which has suppressed a slight increase in the price of ethyl acetate.

This week, the utilization rate of domestic ethyl acetate production capacity has increased, the market inventory has increased, and downstream pre holiday stocking demand is average. A small amount of trading is mainly based on demand. The price of raw material acetic acid continues to rise, which provides good support for the market mentality of ethyl acetate. The price of ethyl acetate has been raised narrowly this week.
Looking at the future, the inventory of ethyl acetate in the market is currently high, and companies are maintaining active shipments. The pre holiday and downstream replenishment sentiment is not good, and the market trading needs to be followed up. The support of the raw material market is limited, and it is expected that ethyl acetate will fluctuate steadily in the short term. Please pay attention to the trend of raw materials and downstream follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on September 28th, the ex factory price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China was referenced to 6900 yuan/ton. Compared with September 1st (cyclohexanone price reference 7087 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 187 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.65%.
The “Golden Nine Effect” has not yet emerged, and the focus of the cyclohexanone market has fallen
From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in September, the domestic cyclohexanone market in Shandong Province showed an overall downward trend. In the first ten days, the cyclohexanone market had little fluctuation, with a relatively calm supply and demand situation, and the market was weakly consolidating and operating. In the latter half of the year, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong began to decline, and the focus of market negotiations gradually decreased, with a cumulative reduction of around 150-200 yuan/ton. As of September 26th, the ex factory price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province, China is around 6850-6950 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
In terms of demand: In September, the overall downstream demand for cyclohexanone was lower than expected. In the early stage of the Double Festival, the purchasing activity of downstream users before the holiday was average, and the overall performance of cyclohexanone demand was poor, providing insufficient market support.
On the supply side: In September, the overall supply performance of the cyclohexanone market in Shandong was loose, with slow demand transmission, and the overall supply pressure in the market was difficult to reduce. The factory shipment status was positive, and the negotiation market continued to move downward. Therefore, in September, the support provided by the supply side to the cyclohexanone market remained weak.
Market analysis in the future
At present, as the end of the month approaches, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is mild, and downstream customers are picking up goods according to demand. The market supply is relatively stable. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that after the holiday, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and specific changes in supply and demand need to be closely monitored.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has fallen this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 838 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 834 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% and a year-on-year increase of 0.12%. On September 25th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 765 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 45.36% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 27.93% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda fell over the weekend this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 760-850 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 890-990 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 2700-2800 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). From the perspective of Shandong region, the supply is relatively abundant. The low concentration alkali prices in Shandong region are under pressure, and the recent continuous decline in alumina prices at home and abroad has led to a narrowing of profit margins for domestic alumina enterprises. Therefore, downstream alumina is mostly purchased on demand, and non aluminum receiving is mainly purchased on demand. In addition, due to the upcoming National Day holiday, caustic soda companies have softened their inventory prices, but overall, they mainly focus on consolidating operations in the later stages.
Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been operating weakly, and the price of caustic soda has been operating weakly. Recently, domestic downstream buyers have been purchasing on demand, and caustic soda companies have sufficient inventory. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a stable operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

This week, the price center of the domestic epoxy propane market has shifted upward. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of September 19th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 7683.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.13% compared to the beginning of the month.

Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: This week, the price of raw material propylene has risen, supported by high costs, providing strong cost support for epoxy propane, and the market price center has shifted upward. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 19th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6730.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.01% compared to the beginning of this month (6663.25 yuan/ton).
On the demand side, downstream demand for epoxy propane is being replenished, and the transaction volume of new orders in polyether factories has increased. The purchasing atmosphere for epoxy propane is positive, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market price will mainly consolidate in the near future.
Market forecast:
Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that the high support of epoxy propane raw materials is still acceptable, downstream market purchasing is active, trading atmosphere is positive, and the market price center has shifted upward. It is expected that the short-term epoxy propane market will mainly operate in a narrow and strong range, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material prices and upstream and downstream supply and demand.

The domestic fluorite prices have continued to rise this week, with an average price of 3350 yuan/ton as of the weekend, an increase of 0.94% from the early week price of 3318.75 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.74%.

Supply side: Low mining operation, tight supply of fluorite
The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has increased. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operating rate of fluorite enterprises. The operating rate of some mines in the south is relatively low, and the supply of fluorite enterprises in the field is tight. In addition, the market’s bullish expectations have led to an increase in the reluctance of holders to sell, making it difficult to find low-priced sources of goods. Fluorite mining enterprises choose factories and hold up prices to sell, resulting. With the decrease in temperature in the north, the winter shutdown period for mines and beneficiation plants in the northern region is approaching, and the market supply is further tightening, leading to an upward trend in the fluorite market.
Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid prices temporarily stable, refrigerant market rises
This week, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has remained stable, with mainstream prices ranging from 10800-11500 yuan/ton in various regions of China. The downstream hydrofluoric acid units are still shut down, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. Recently, the hydrofluoric acid market has risen, and the enthusiasm for purchasing fluorite has increased. This news has affected the price of fluorite to rise.
The downstream refrigerant market continues to rise, and the refrigerant industry is strengthening its terminal policies. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement, and fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of purchasing at high prices is relatively slow, but the good inventory of the industry is orderly transmitted, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The trend of refrigerant market has increased, and the fluorite market has risen.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market, with a clear mentality of buying up rather than buying down, and strong reluctance among holders to sell; In addition, the supply of fluorite in the northern region will become tighter in the later stage, and the downstream market for hydrofluoric acid and refrigerants will be stronger. However, hydrofluoric acid enterprises will mainly purchase according to demand. Overall, the fluorite market price trend is expected to rise in the short term.

This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 15th, the price of isooctanol was 7016.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.71% compared to the price of 7066.67 yuan/ton on September 8th. This week, the production capacity of isooctanol enterprises remained stable at a high level, and the operating rate of isooctanol equipment slightly increased to 96%. In addition, there was a significant increase in new isooctanol production capacity, resulting in an increase in isooctanol supply; Downstream plasticizer companies have stable production, but the demand support for isooctanol by plasticizers is limited. The increase in supply and demand support is limited, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen.
Downstream plasticizer DOP prices stop falling and rebound
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 15th, the DOP price was 7509.16 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.56% compared to the DOP price of 7467.50 yuan/ton on September 10th. DOP prices have rebounded and stopped falling, while DOP enterprises have increased their operating load. The demand for isooctanol has increased, and the support for the rise in isooctanol prices still exists.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, on the supply side, the equipment operating load of isooctanol enterprises remains stable at a high level, coupled with a large amount of new production capacity of isooctanol, resulting in an oversupply of isooctanol. In terms of demand, DOP prices have rebounded and stopped falling, while support for isooctanol demand still exists. In the future, with the increase in supply and demand support of isooctanol, it is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and stabilize.