1、 Price trend

In March, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong region showed a trend of “first rapid rise, then high-level consolidation”. In the first ten days, the market was rapidly boosted by multiple favorable factors. In the middle of the month, the market was affected by macro and supply and demand changes, and prices maintained a high level after a slight correction, with a cumulative increase of 31.03% for the whole month.
2、 Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
Cost side: Strong support formed by resonance between raw materials and geopolitical disturbances
The core raw material of cyclohexanone is pure benzene, which accounts for a relatively high proportion of the cost. Therefore, the trend of raw material prices directly affects the production cost of cyclohexanone. In early March, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East led to a significant increase in international crude oil prices, which in turn drove up the price of pure benzene and significantly increased the production cost of cyclohexanone. Enterprises have sufficient motivation to keep up with the price increase, forming strong cost support.
In the middle of the month, with the temporary easing of the geopolitical situation, crude oil prices rebounded, pure benzene prices also fell, and the marginal cost support weakened, creating conditions for a slight correction in cyclohexanone prices.
Supply and demand pattern: from tight to loose, supporting sustained dynamic variables
Firstly, let’s take a look at the supply side. After reducing maintenance and resuming production, the pattern will gradually tighten and then loosen. In early March, some mainstream devices entered the planned maintenance phase, coupled with some enterprises’ negative load reduction operations in the early stage, the effective supply in the market will shrink, and spot inventory will remain low, forming a temporary tight balance and directly driving up prices rapidly.
In the later stage, with the restart of maintenance equipment, the market supply steadily rebounded, and the tight supply situation in the early stage gradually eased, weakening the support of the supply side for prices.
On the demand side, as spring arrives, downstream chemical fiber and coating industries such as cyclohexanone, adipic acid, and nylon 66 enter the traditional peak season. Coupled with the release of demand for low-priced raw materials in the early stage, there is a significant increase in first-time purchases, which provides some support for prices. However, with prices rapidly rising to around 10000 yuan, downstream enterprises face a sharp increase in cost pressure, and their purchasing intentions quickly cool down. In the middle of the month, on-demand small order purchases are the main focus, and there is insufficient supply of high priced goods, which is an important reason for the temporary rise in prices and subsequent decline.
3、 Future forecast
Analysis from the perspectives of supply, demand, and cost
From the supply side, the cyclohexanone maintenance unit has basically resumed production, and the market supply will steadily rebound. The supply pressure continues to increase, and the support for prices will further weaken. Although downstream demand has increased due to the impact of peak season, the overall demand for essential purchases is difficult to sustain, and there is insufficient supply of high priced goods, which will constrain demand. In terms of cost, if crude oil and pure benzene prices remain high, they will still provide some cost support for cyclohexanone prices.
Analyze from a technical perspective
From the spot market analysis system of Business Society, it can be seen that in early March, the 10 day moving average of cyclohexanone crossed the 20 day moving average, and the short-term (10 day) moving averages were all higher than the long-term (20 day) moving averages. Starting from early March, the overall cyclohexanone market trend showed an upward trend. At the end of March, the 10 day moving average of cyclohexanone crossed the 20 day moving average, indicating a high probability of a downward trend in the spot market price of cyclohexanone during the forecast period. According to auxiliary indicators, the price of cyclohexanone is expected to be at a medium low level on the 10th and 20th of the 5th, indicating a limited decline in the future price of cyclohexanone. Special attention should be paid to fluctuations in crude oil prices, equipment operation, and changes in downstream orders.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 1 to 31, 2026, the domestic toluene market price increased from 5400 yuan/ton to 8067.67 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price increase of 49.4% during the period. After a sharp rise at the beginning of the month, the price rebounded and overall fluctuated upwards, closing significantly higher.

In March 2026, the domestic toluene market showed a strong operating trend of “first rising, then falling, and steadily rising”, with prices rising sharply and fluctuating significantly. The core driving force came from the strong rise of crude oil on the cost side and the continuous tightening of the supply side. At the same time, the weak downstream demand pattern formed a certain constraint on the market. Under the joint action of multiple factors, the market achieved a significant increase in March.
Cost aspect:
The overall trend of the international crude oil market in March was strong, becoming the core cost driving force supporting the upward trend of toluene prices. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to be tense, with significant disruptions to regional supply chain circulation. The tight global crude oil supply situation has yet to ease, and international oil prices have continued to rise and maintain a high operating trend. The significant increase in upstream crude oil prices has driven the simultaneous strengthening of naphtha related raw materials, further raising the production and processing costs of toluene. The periodic fluctuations in the crude oil market were also transmitted to the toluene market, causing a short-term pullback after the toluene market surged at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, as crude oil strengthened again, it returned to an upward trend, and the overall cost support continued throughout the month.
Supply side:
The overall tightening of domestic toluene supply pattern in March provided stable support for market prices. Due to the pressure of raw material costs and equipment maintenance arrangements, many domestic main production enterprises have voluntarily reduced their production load, and some equipment has been temporarily shut down for maintenance, directly leading to a reduction in the production of toluene self-produced goods on site. At the same time, the pace of supplementing external imported goods has slowed down, coupled with restrictions on international shipping and trade circulation, resulting in a significant decrease in the amount of imported goods arriving at the port, and the overall domestic spot circulation resources have become increasingly tight. Market holding merchants generally have a strong mentality of being reluctant to sell and raising prices, and the tight circulation of spot goods has further contributed to the steady rise in toluene prices this month.
Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 1st to 30th, the domestic PX market price showed a strong upward trend followed by a slight downward trend. As of March 31st, the executed price in the four major regions of East China, North China, Central China, and South China was 9700 yuan/ton, a significant increase from the price of 7600 yuan/ton on March 1st. The main units of Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical operated stably, and the product sales situation was normal.
In terms of international markets, from March 1st to 30th, the prices of para xylene (PX) in the Asian region fluctuated upwards, with a closing price range of 902-1252 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 924-1277 US dollars/ton CFR China for the whole month. As of March 30th, the closing prices of the Asian PX market were 1250-1252 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 1275-1277 US dollars/ton CFR China, with a significant increase in prices compared to March 1st, and the overall fluctuation range was quite obvious.

The overall demand for toluene downstream is weak, which significantly constrains the high priced raw materials. The core downstream PX industry has entered a centralized maintenance cycle this month, with multiple main units reducing their operating loads or suspending operations, significantly reducing the raw material procurement and consumption of toluene. The recovery pace of downstream polyester and textile terminal market demand is relatively slow, and the overall profitability of the industry is under pressure. Enterprises have strong resistance to high-level raw material procurement, and daily procurement only maintains the level of essential needs, with insufficient willingness to actively replenish. Downstream oil blending and solvent industries are also suppressed by high prices, with weak demand follow-up. The overall demand has failed to keep up with the pace of price increases, which to some extent constrains the upward space of the toluene market.
Market forecast:
Taking into account the fundamental factors of cost, supply, and demand in March, it is highly likely that the toluene market will maintain a high volatility pattern in the future. At the cost level, the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are difficult to completely ease in the short term, and international crude oil will continue to maintain high levels. The cost support foundation for toluene is still solid. The impact of maintenance on domestic production facilities on the supply side has not completely subsided, and the replenishment of imported goods is still relatively limited. The tight supply situation on site may continue. The resumption pace of downstream equipment on the demand side is relatively slow, and it will take time for terminal consumption to recover. The acceptance of high priced raw materials is still limited, which will continue to suppress the upward trend of the market. Overall, in the future, toluene will operate in a game of strong costs, tight supply, and weak demand, and the market is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations. The overall trend will be dominated by small fluctuations at high levels.

Core market trend

In March, the domestic propylene glycol market showed a complete operational trend of rapid cost driven increase, prominent high-level supply-demand contradictions, and gradually entering a stagnant consolidation trend.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 27th, the average production price of propylene glycol in Shandong Province has risen from 5983 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9500 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 58.77%, setting a new three-year high.
In terms of market rhythm, from early to mid March, the market steadily rose supported by the surge in raw materials and tight supply. After accelerating in late March, with the recovery of the supply side and the manifestation of weak demand side, market sentiment turned cautious, and the upward trend significantly slowed down, gradually entering a high-level oscillation stage.
Breaking down the market logic:
Cost side: High volatility of epoxy propane, cost support still exists but marginal weakening
The core logic behind the recent surge in propylene glycol is the strong cost transmission of upstream propylene oxide. The epoxy propane market continued to rise at a high level in March, and the supply side was affected by fluctuations in equipment and reduced volume operations, resulting in factories operating without pressure and providing rigid support for prices.
According to data from Shengyi Society, the spot price increase of epichlorohydrin is highly synchronized with that of propylene glycol, with a cumulative increase of over 58%. However, it is worth noting that propylene is the most essential direct raw material for epichlorohydrin. Affected by the supply chain disruption caused by geopolitical conflicts, the price of propylene has recently risen and fallen, coupled with a decrease in downstream acceptance of high priced epoxy propane, intensifying the wait-and-see sentiment and weakening the market’s upward momentum. It is expected that epoxy propane will show a slightly slow stabilization trend in the short term and enter a high-level digestion stage. The cost side support for propylene glycol will also shift from “unilateral upward push” to “high-level stability maintenance”, and the upward momentum will significantly weaken.
Supply side: tighten first and then loosen, resume work in the latter half of the year to alleviate the supply gap
The supply pattern showed significant differentiation in March: from early to mid month: equipment maintenance, low inventory, tight market circulation, strong willingness of manufacturers to raise prices, scarce low-priced sources, providing a solid foundation for price increases; Late stage: With the gradual resumption of production of maintenance equipment, the operating rate of equipment gradually recovers, and the market supply increases. The tight supply balance pattern in the early stage is broken, and the support of the supply side for prices is further weakened, laying the foundation for the subsequent market correction.
On the demand side, there is a clear resistance to high prices, leading to a significant decrease in purchasing enthusiasm
The weak demand side is the core contradiction that suppresses the market:
Downstream production reduction and burden reduction in domestic trade: Downstream polyether export demand weakened due to the end of tax rebate policies, and prices hit a three-year high. Unsaturated polyester resin, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, coatings and other industries have been unable to keep up with high prices and have generally adopted measures to reduce production and burden. The focus of procurement has shifted to small orders for essential needs, and the willingness to replenish inventory has significantly decreased. Overall demand shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing.
The performance of export orders is flat: although there is strong demand support on the export side, the overall order volume is lower than expected, making it difficult to effectively digest high priced goods;
There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market: traders and downstream factories remain cautious about the high point market, and trading activity has significantly decreased, with the characteristic of “having a price but no market” gradually emerging.

Prediction of future market trends
Short term trend: large, stable, minor, high, stagnant and fluctuating
Integrated cost, supply, and demand logic:
On the cost side, epoxy propane has stabilized at a high level and still provides some support, but the price lacks a foundation for a significant decline;
On the supply side: resuming work in the latter half of the year, increasing supply, and alleviating the previous supply gap;
On the demand side: high price resistance persists, procurement enthusiasm is low, and there is a lack of continued upward momentum.
Therefore, in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly be characterized by “large, stable, small, and stagnant fluctuations”, with a narrow range of price fluctuations, making it difficult to reach new highs, and some high-level sources may offer small discounts.
Core focus variable
Raw material trend: The stabilization progress of epichlorohydrin and fluctuations in upstream propylene and crude oil prices directly determine the strength of cost support;
Supply recovery rhythm: The progress of equipment resumption will further affect the supply-demand balance;
Changes in the international situation: external factors such as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East are transmitted to the domestic market through the energy supply chain;
Downstream demand recovery: It is necessary to observe the duration of production reduction in downstream factories and when rigid procurement will return to rational increment.
summary
The March propylene glycol market is the result of the combined effects of strong cost support, tight supply followed by looseness, and weak demand. In the early stage, a significant increase was achieved due to the surge in epoxy propane and tight supply. In the later stage, as supply recovered and demand weakened, the market shifted from a “unilateral rise” to a “high-level oscillation”.
In the short term, the price of propylene glycol will maintain a pattern of large, stable, and small fluctuations. Enterprises need to closely track raw material prices, equipment start-up, and changes in the international situation, reasonably control inventory, flexibly adjust production and procurement strategies, and avoid price fluctuation risks.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 24th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3443.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton or 11.31% compared to the price of 3093.33 yuan/ton on March 16th.

Recently (3.16-3.24), domestic acetic acid prices have continued to rise. In terms of supply, some acetic acid plants are not operating at full capacity, the overall market operating rate is not high, large factories are shipping smoothly, inventory is relatively low, and manufacturers have a strong upward trend; On the demand side, downstream products such as ethyl acetate, butyl acetate, and acetic anhydride have shown strong trends, providing strong support for the acetic acid market; At the same time, the high price of raw material methanol has increased the cost pressure of acetic acid. Under the influence of multiple factors, the price of acetic acid continues to rise, and the market situation is running strongly.
Recently, the raw material methanol market has been consolidating at a high level. As of March 24th, the average price in the domestic market was 3170 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.62% compared to the price of 2840 yuan/ton on March 16th. Affected by geopolitical factors, methanol imports have tightened, and the futures market has shown strong trends, driving up the spot market. Downstream demand for methanol has followed suit, and holders are optimistic. Methanol prices are running steadily, and there is significant pressure on the cost side of acetic acid.
The downstream acetic anhydride market continues to rise, with the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride increasing from 4832.50 yuan/ton to 5512.50 yuan/ton from March 16th to 24th, an increase of 14.07%. The production of acetic anhydride on the supply side is stable, while downstream purchases at high prices are average, and entry into the market is mainly based on demand. The price of acetic anhydride on the raw material side continues to rise, with strong cost support, driving the price of acetic anhydride to continue to rise.
Market forecast: Business Society’s acetic acid analyst believes that the positive factors in the domestic acetic acid market are relatively strong, and industry players are optimistic. The price trend is expected to continue to be strong, and while the high prices persist, downstream resistance may arise, causing fluctuations in demand. It is expected that the acetic acid market will stabilize and operate at a high level in the short term, and the market supply situation will be closely monitored in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite has risen this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2486 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 2583 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.89%.
This week, the market price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite (with a content of 96.5%) in China has increased. The upstream price of sodium metabisulfite is stable, while the price of sulfur has increased by 4.33% and the downstream price of caprolactam has increased by 1.61%. The growth of upstream raw materials such as soda ash and sulfur is difficult to stop, which has driven up the price of sodium metabisulfite. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).
Future forecast
The continuous rise in domestic raw material costs of sodium metabisulfite supports prices, and it is expected that the domestic market prices will mainly fluctuate with a strong trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of formic acid has recently risen. As of March 9th, the benchmark price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in Shengyi Society was 2500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.04% compared to the same period last week (March 2nd), a month on month increase of 2.46%, and a year-on-year decrease of 18%.

（1） Supply side: Maintenance expectations support, short-term supply temporarily stable
This week, the supply side of the formic acid market showed a characteristic of “expected tightening, actual stability”. In March, a total of 350000 tons of formic acid plants in domestic core production areas were scheduled for maintenance, which became a core variable supporting the market. As of March 9th, the maintenance plan has not yet been implemented on a large scale, the operating rate of enterprises remains at a normal level, and the market supply of goods is sufficient.
Meanwhile, around March 4th, due to the expected fluctuations in future sea freight rates, domestic enterprises concentrated on shipping export orders, effectively digesting the above median inventory in the early stage, alleviating potential pressure on the supply side, and laying the foundation for price stability.
（2） Demand side: Expected increase in peak season, weak terminal transactions
The demand side is showing a trend of “expectation and reality differentiation”. On the one hand, March and April are the traditional recovery period for downstream industries such as formic acid pesticides, leather, printing and dyeing. The start of spring plowing and stocking up, as well as the rise in temperature, will drive up downstream production rates, and there is a strong expectation of demand recovery; On the other hand, the actual transaction performance in the terminal market this week was weak, and the effect of manufacturers raising prices to guide procurement in the early stage was not good. The shipment of high priced goods was hindered, ultimately leading to the failure of price adjustment.
（3） Transaction and Inventory: Slowdown of Inventory Clearance Rhythm, Return to Rational Trading
This week’s inventory and transaction pace are changing synchronously. Before March 4th, centralized export shipments drove inventory digestion, and the market trading atmosphere slightly warmed up; But with the sluggish shipment of high priced goods, the pace of enterprise shipments has slowed down, inventory levels have returned to stability, and there has been no significant backlog or shortage. On March 9th, the market trading atmosphere returned to stability, the supply-demand balance was restored, and prices remained stable.
Market outlook: Significant increase in raw materials, expected to have a transmission impact on formic acid prices
Methanol: Over 60% of China’s imports come from Iran, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed, causing delays in the arrival of imported goods at the port; The domestic spring inspection efforts fell short of expectations, coupled with the resumption of downstream formaldehyde and dimethyl ether production, and tight supply and demand, driving prices to soar.
Sulfuric acid: The high dependence on imported raw material sulfur has led to a surge in sulfur prices due to supply disruptions in the Middle East; The maintenance of acid plants and the strong demand for spring plowing and fertilizer preparation have driven up the price of sulfuric acid due to the resonance between cost and supply and demand.
The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the price of formic acid has been stable recently, and a significant increase in raw materials may lead to an increase in formic acid prices. Specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

1、 Market trend

Under the influence of the macro situation, since March 1st, the overall price of butanone in China has shown a rapid upward trend in a stepped manner, rising from 7000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8300 yuan/ton, reaching a high point in the first quarter, with a cumulative increase of 18.57% within 5 days.
2、 Core influencing factors
Macro situation: Geopolitical conflicts dominate the cost side
On February 28th, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global crude oil and 30% of liquefied natural gas trade. The closure directly led to a significant increase in Brent crude oil prices, which transmitted the cost of crude oil to the entire chemical industry chain. As an upstream raw material for butanone, the soaring price of crude oil directly pushed up the production cost of butanone.
Supply side: Some butanone enterprises have undergone equipment maintenance or reduced production, resulting in tight spot supply in the market. Leading enterprises have successively raised their butanone prices, driving up industry prices.
On the demand side: The traditional peak season of “gold, silver, and four” combined with downstream industries such as coatings and adhesives resuming work and production, the domestic macroeconomic recovery, and the gradual release of demand for butanone replenishment have provided demand side support for the rise in butanone product prices.
3、 Future prospects
In the short term, against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical conflicts and high crude oil prices, the price of butanone is expected to remain at a high level, and there is even a possibility of further surge. In the long run, if geopolitical conflicts ease, crude oil prices fall, or downstream demand falls short of expectations, the price of butanone may face the risk of correction.

On March 4th, the market for n-propanol in Shandong Province surged, with a daily price increase of about 600 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 10.4%, and a three-day increase of 12.75%. Affected by the international situation, concerns about costs and potential supply disruptions have dominated the n-propanol market, coupled with factory reluctance to sell, resulting in a broad upward trend in the n-propanol market.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
International Energy and Macro Situation: Implicit Driving of Price Upward
Currently, the global energy geopolitical situation remains complex, with a decline in shipping efficiency in key energy channels, driving up international energy and chemical logistics costs, and increasing market risk aversion to supply disruptions. The concern about supply risk has become an important implicit support for the n-propanol market.
Cost side support: Strong cost support for crude oil ethylene transmission
International crude oil is operating at a high level due to macroeconomic disturbances, driving up the cost of ethylene, a raw material for n-propanol. The current cost support is strong, and the profit margin of enterprises is significantly driven by raw material prices, becoming the core driving force for this round of price increases.
Supply and demand pattern: tight supply, downstream resumption of work resonance
On the supply side, the inventory of Shandong’s n-propanol market is at a medium low level, and imports are affected by the continuation of trade policies and the rise in international supply costs, resulting in limited import replenishment and a tight overall domestic supply pattern. On the demand side, downstream industries such as coatings, inks, and pharmaceutical intermediates are gradually resuming work after the holiday, and the replenishment of essential inventory is steadily released. Good supply and demand transmission further supports price strength.
Future prospects
In the short term, influenced by the international energy situation, the pattern of cost support and tight supply will continue, and the market situation is likely to remain strong; In the long run, it is necessary to pay more attention to factors such as on-site construction, raw material costs, and the sustainability of downstream demand.

1、 Current price trend

spot price
At the beginning of the month, it fluctuated around 6300 yuan/ton. In the middle of the month, with the rise of crude oil costs and the strengthening of downstream resumption expectations, it gradually rebounded to above 6400 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, it was reported at 6411 yuan/ton (the benchmark price of Shengyi Society), up about 1.8% from the beginning of the month, showing an overall trend of first suppression and then rise, with a strong range.
Main Contract:
Following the resonance of spot prices, it fluctuated around 6300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and quickly rose in the middle of the month. At the end of the month, it was reported at 6470 yuan/ton, an increase of about 2.7% compared to the beginning of the month. Futures prices were slightly higher than spot prices, reflecting the market’s optimism towards short-term trends.
Recent contracts:
The volatility is more intense, with multiple ups and downs within the month, following the rhythm of the main contract as a whole, reflecting short-term financial games and emotional changes.
2、 Main basis rate
Since February, the basis rate has fluctuated narrowly around the zero axis, mostly within the range of -2% to+3%. On February 12th and 21st, it rebounded to 2.59% and 1.96% respectively, and turned negative again at the end of the month. Futures slightly increased in price compared to spot, indicating a close linkage between futures and cash, and the market’s pricing for cost increases and resumption of work expectations is relatively sufficient.
Long term average: As of February 27, 2026, the 180 day average basis rate of propylene is 2.73%, and the 90 day average basis rate is 2.49%. The current basis rate is within a reasonable repair range and has not shown extreme deviation.
Overall, the fluctuation of the main basis rate of propylene in February accurately reflects the rise in costs, changes in supply and demand patterns, and the evolution of market expectations, providing important references for judging the relationship between the present and future market trends.
3、 Core driver
1. Cost side: The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to Brent crude oil hitting a high of $83 per barrel this month, up about 4.2% from the beginning of the month, driving up the cost of propane raw materials and providing strong support for propylene prices.
2. Supply side: The operating load of domestic propylene plants remains at 78.44%, with a slight decrease of 0.30% in the weekly cycle ratio. The maintenance of PDH plants continues, and the pace of releasing new production capacity slows down. The market commodity volume remains stable and there is no centralized supply pressure.
3. Demand side: The operating rates of downstream PP, octanol, and acrylonitrile have increased by 3-5 percentage points compared to the previous period, and the resumption rate of packaging, film, plastic weaving and other fields has exceeded 85%. The demand for replenishment of essential inventory is gradually released, supporting spot transactions, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is gradually recovering.
4. Futures side: The average daily trading volume of the main contract for propylene futures in February increased by 12.3% month on month, and the holding volume increased by 8.7% month on month. The preference of funds for the chemical sector has increased, and the price has reflected positive expectations in advance, forming a traction for spot trading.
4、 Future prospects
In the short term, the range oscillation will continue to be strong, with a core range reference of 6350-6650 yuan/ton. Key focus: crude oil trend, downstream resumption progress, equipment maintenance plan, and basis repair rhythm.
Investment side: Upstream PDH and refining enterprises benefit from price increases, while downstream product enterprises face cost pressures. They can track price transmission through the Business Society Stock Connect and lock in the target beneficiaries.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the average price quoted by domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 3940 yuan/ton. Currently, the overall market supply exceeds demand, downstream demand is insufficient, and the driving force for price increases is insufficient.
2、 Cause analysis
In terms of market: Currently, the DMF market has a loose supply side and overcapacity. The total domestic DMF production capacity has increased from 910000 tons/year in 2021 to 1.77 million tons/year in 2025, an increase of over 94%. However, downstream demand growth is slow, leading to a long-term “oversupply” in the market. On the supply side, there is a serious overcapacity. The total domestic DMF production capacity has reached 1.77 million tons/year (2025 data), while the industry operating rate has been maintained at around 40% for a long time, and actual demand is far below production capacity, resulting in a long-term “oversupply” in the market. There has been no new capacity investment from 2025 to 2026, and multiple planned projects have been put on hold. The suspension of capacity expansion has eased further downward pressure, but the overcapacity pattern has not changed.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, the DMF market will remain stable with small fluctuations, and the overall market will mainly operate steadily.