Under the constraints of difficult cost support and weak demand, the domestic phenol market experienced more declines and less gains in March. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 7897 yuan/ton on March 1st and 7275 yuan/ton on March 31st, a decrease of 7.88%.

With the replenishment of imported cargo at the beginning of the month, the port inventory increased to 25000 tons, and the decline in raw material pure benzene intensified at the beginning of the month, making it difficult to support the cost aspect. With sufficient supply, the phenol market was unable to support a rapid decline.
After the middle of the month, there was slight support in terms of cost, and Huaxi phenol shipments were gradually dispatched. Port inventories declined, and the market rebounded from the decline. However, overall demand was weak, and after a brief period of urgent procurement and replenishment, the market was difficult to support. With the further decline of raw material pure benzene, the phenol market had limited gains and entered a downward trend again.
As of the 31st, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:
Region/ 31 day quotation/ March’s ups and downs
East China region/ 7220./ -700
Shandong region/ 7250./ -650
Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 7300./ -600
South China region/ 7350./ -600
In March, China’s phenol production was 450400 tons, an increase of 27800 tons from February and a month on month increase of 6.58%. In March, there were 10 phenol ketone enterprises in China that underwent parking maintenance, involving a phenol production capacity of 2.07 million tons. The phenol loss of the parking enterprises was 96900 tons, and some units outside the parking were not fully operated. In March, the utilization rate of phenol production capacity in China increased by 1.60 percentage points month on month, reaching 77.75%.
Business Society predicts that the phenol market will mainly fluctuate within a certain range in April. On the one hand, we are concerned about the replenishment of imported goods. It is reported that Saudi Arabia’s phenol ketone plant plans to shut down in April, and the subsequent replenishment of imported goods may decrease. We will continue to follow Business Society’s information release for details. On the other hand, the situation of domestic phenol ketone plants seems to be basically stable, with a slight increase in supply, but the increment is limited and should not be significant. The supply of raw material pure benzene is sufficient, and the expected decrease in significant fluctuations. The demand for bisphenol A equipment is declining, and the demand may decrease. Overall, market fluctuations were predominant in April.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 24th to 28th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2720 yuan/ton to 2654 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 2.42% during the period, a month on month increase of 0.95%, and a year-on-year increase of 3.74%. The domestic methanol market is weakly consolidating. Some regions have abundant supply of goods and actively reduce inventory. The overall market trading atmosphere has weakened, with a decrease in the number of new orders signed by most companies, resulting in a general decline in pending orders.

As of the close on March 28th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2505 for methanol futures opened at 2563 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2573 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2525 yuan/ton. It closed at 2541 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 24 yuan or 0.94% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 782186 lots, the position is 691192 lots, and the daily increase position is -8908 lots.
In terms of cost, the supply of thermal coal in the market has been continuously loose recently, the recovery of domestic coal mining capacity has accelerated, the role of imported coal in supplementing has been strengthened, and the purchase prices of large coal enterprises and power plants have been continuously lowered. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.
Demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: increasing demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream acetic acid: Increased demand for acetic acid; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream chloride: Increased demand for chloride; Downstream formaldehyde: There are no plans to stop driving formaldehyde in the near future, and the demand fluctuation is not significant. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the supply side, the overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of March 27th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 367.50-368.50 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 94.00-95.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 318.50-319.50 euros/ton, down 10 euros/ton.
The future forecast is that the supply will remain abundant, and inventory will continue to be widely depleted. The traditional downstream demand continues to rebound, especially in the acetic acid industry, which has shown significant performance. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly focus on strong consolidation.

1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, this week (3.24-28), the PVC spot market reversed its decline and prices rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4930 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74% during the week.

2、 Market analysis
Supply side: The PVC spot market atmosphere has improved this week, reversing the decline in the first half of the year. Driven by the futures market, the spot market has significantly improved and prices have rebounded. The market performance has improved in terms of supply and demand, and the PVC operating rate has remained stable this week. Although some companies have taken actions to reduce their negative load in the early stage, the operating rate has slightly increased, but the market transaction volume has significantly improved. This is mainly based on the increase in trading volume and the improvement of market sentiment.
In terms of inventory, there has been a temporary increase in transaction volume in the market recently, and social inventory continues to decrease. However, considering the previously large basic inventory, the current spot supply side remains abundant.
On the cost side: The price of calcium carbide in the market remained stable this week, and the market entered a bottoming stage. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the price fluctuation of calcium carbide has been zero since March. Although there is no positive news on the cost side, the increase in downstream procurement volume has a certain stimulating effect, and the upstream and downstream linkage has led to a rebound trend in PVC prices. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electric aggregate in China is mostly around 4900-4950 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that PVC supply is relatively abundant in the short term, and the operating rate of manufacturers this week is generally higher than at the beginning of the month. Although enterprise inventory continues to decrease, the process is slow. The rebound of short-term futures market is mainly due to the improvement of market sentiment, and the lack of sustained improvement momentum in PVC fundamentals. As downstream procurement returns to rationality, the positive support effect is not significant. We should be cautious about the magnitude of the increase.

The price of ethylene glycol fell in March

The price of ethylene glycol will decrease in March 2025. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of March 26th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4551.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.29% from the average price of 4681.67 yuan/ton on March 1st.

On March 26, 2025, the basis of Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol spot contract remained basically stable, and the contract transaction price range for this week was 4500-4515 yuan/ton. This week’s spot contract basis price ranges from+36 to+38, next week’s spot contract basis price ranges from+43 to+45, and April’s spot contract basis price ranges from+74 to+75.

The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) per unit is 4170-4240 yuan/ton.

In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of March 25th, the landed price of ethylene glycol in China is 525-528 US dollars/ton, and the landed price of ethylene glycol in Southeast Asia is 536 US dollars/ton.

Port inventory fluctuated horizontally in March

From January to mid February, there was a significant accumulation of ethylene glycol inventory in the port, and in March, the port inventory fluctuated horizontally. On March 24, 2025, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 627600 tons, a decrease of 43600 tons from the total inventory of 671200 tons on March 3; The total inventory as of December 30, 2024 was 397300 tons, an increase of 230300 tons.

Recent favorable factors

Recently, international crude oil prices have stopped falling and rebounded, with cost drag slowing down. Coupled with the significant decline in ethylene glycol, the downward space has narrowed.

Recent bearish factors

There is news of a production reduction in downstream polyester, with weak terminal demand and doubts about the subsequent consumption demand for ethylene glycol.

Overall, it is expected that the probability of horizontal fluctuations in the future market of ethylene glycol will increase.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 17th to 21st, MTBE prices fell from 5750 yuan/ton to 5737 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.22% during the cycle, a month on month drop of 2.75%, and a year-on-year drop of 18.76%. The MTBE market trend is weak, with sporadic price adjustments as the main trend, and overall showing a sideways trend. The trend of international crude oil is fluctuating, and the demand for gasoline terminals continues to be weak, with only sporadic periods of terminal replenishment.

In terms of cost and crude oil, the rise in international oil prices is mainly due to the positive factors of the United States taking action against the Houthi militants in Yemen and insisting on sanctions against Iran and Russia, which increases potential supply risks. As of March 20th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $71.47 per barrel.

On the demand side, international crude oil futures have fluctuated downwards, and the refined oil market has continued to decline. Refineries have lowered prices and promoted sales. Intermediate traders are digesting their previous inventory, and new orders are cautious. Downstream merchants purchase according to demand. There is no short-term holiday boost, and there is no significant positive impact on private car travel for the public. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

Supply side: There is an expectation of an increase in resource supply. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on March 20th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $4.09/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $708.58-710.58/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $3/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $773.74-774.24/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $31.52/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $782.02-782.38/ton (220.81-220.91 cents/gallon).

There is a narrow expectation of an increase in MTBE resource supply in the future, while terminal demand remains weak. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market is mainly consolidating due to weak market conditions.

Aluminum prices fluctuate in March

Aluminum prices first rose and then fell in March, and have recently experienced a slight decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 21, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20823.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.23% compared to the market average price of 20570 yuan/ton on March 1.

In the early stage, aluminum prices continued their strong trend from January to February. Recently, aluminum prices have fluctuated and remained strong overall, especially in the context of a significant drop in raw material alumina prices. The logical basis for the strong aluminum prices is as follows:

At present, the non-ferrous metal sector is greatly affected by macro factors, and the overall trend is in the macro pricing cycle. Macro sentiment focuses on the follow-up interest rate cut path of the Federal Reserve. As a non-ferrous sector with good international liquidity, it is easily affected by overseas funding factors. The overall trend of macro sentiment is currently bullish on aluminum prices.

2. With the imposition of tariffs on aluminum products, the increase in overseas aluminum prices, the ceiling restrictions on domestic production capacity, and the support of the “trade in” policy for terminal demand, as well as the continuous efforts of sectors such as new energy and A1, the end consumption path of aluminum products has expanded significantly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 14th, the average price of acetic acid was 2880 yuan/ton, which was the same as the acetic acid price of 2880 yuan/ton on March 7th, and increased by 2.86% compared to the beginning of the month.

This week, the acetic acid market fluctuated and consolidated, with enterprise quotations rising first and then falling. On the supply side, the main factories in the northern region have delayed maintenance, leading to an increase in shipping sentiment among enterprises. Downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high, and there is resistance to high prices. On site trading is poor, and under the game of supply and demand, the price of acetic acid has been adjusted downward.

As of March 14th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ On March 7th/ On March 14th/ rise and fall

South China region/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 2875 yuan/ton/ -100

North China region/ 2840 yuan/ton/ 2775 yuan/ton/ -65

Shandong region/ 2850 yuan/ton/ 2820 yuan/ton/ -30

Jiangsu region/ 2750 yuan/ton/ 2700 yuan/ton/ -50

Zhejiang region/ 2950 yuan/ton/ 2900 yuan/ton/ -50

The upstream methanol market is fluctuating. From March 7th to 14th, the average price in the domestic market decreased from 2669 yuan/ton to 2656 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 0.47%. At the beginning of the week, some traders restocked and production companies limited their shipments, driving up the domestic methanol market. However, downstream consumers still have resistance to high prices, and their willingness to purchase is average, which suppresses the market and weakens the market negotiation atmosphere. Overall, prices are running weakly.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is weak and declining. On March 14th, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 4920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.43% compared to the price of 5095 yuan/ton on March 7th. The upstream acetic acid market fluctuated, and the cost of acetic anhydride had limited positive effects. Enterprise quotations were lowered, and the demand side followed suit with weakness. Market transactions were poor, and acetic anhydride prices were weak during the week.

In terms of future predictions, the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the supply of acetic acid in the market is stable, with companies actively shipping and downstream entry based on demand. There is a game of supply and demand in the market. However, if the supply side plans to maintain the equipment on schedule, the utilization rate of production capacity in the market may decrease. It is expected that the acetic acid market will remain stagnant in the later stage, and specific attention will be paid to equipment changes and downstream follow-up situations.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has increased this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 979 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 993 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.43% and a year-on-year increase of 23.82%. On March 13th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 840 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 40.00% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 40.47% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been rising this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 960-1050 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 950-1050 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 3050-3150 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). The overall increase in caustic soda prices is mainly due to manufacturers stopping for maintenance, which has eased the pressure on caustic soda inventory. But with the rise in prices, downstream consumers are resistant, and downstream alumina mainly purchases caustic soda on demand.

Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in recent times, the price of caustic soda has risen and the operating market has improved. Enterprises are undergoing maintenance, inventory pressure has been alleviated, and downstream demand is still acceptable. However, with the rise in prices and downstream resistance, the comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a stable operation in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China continued to decline this week. As of March 7th, the average market price in East China was 12150 yuan/ton, and on March 3rd, the average price was 12500 yuan/ton. It fell 2.8% within the week and 30.17% year-on-year.

This week, the TDI market continued to weaken and the decline slowed down. During the week, Shanghai’s major factories lowered their guidance prices, and the market’s trading center shifted downwards in the atmosphere of price decline. The TDI market has sufficient supply of goods, and downstream market entry is cautious, with a focus on essential needs. Traders’ quotes follow the market trend, with low-end quotes falling below 12000 yuan/ton. There are maintenance plans for the northwest unit, and the mentality of operators is slightly supported. TDI’s decline is slowing down.

Supply side: The TDI unit in Xinjiang is temporarily shut down, while other units are maintaining medium to high load operation, and the market supply is filling up quickly.

Cost wise: Upstream toluene has recently experienced a weak decline, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

Market analysis shows that the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current TDI price has fallen to a recent low, compressing corporate profits and limiting the room for further decline. It is expected that the TDI market will consolidate and operate after a short-term decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the average production price of ethyl acetate was 5613.33 yuan/ton, a narrow decrease from the beginning of the month price of 5630.00 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 0.30%. The main reason for the fluctuation in the price range of ethyl acetate is due to weak support from the supply side, poor downstream demand, and cautious mentality among industry players.

Market analysis: This month, the market for ethyl acetate fluctuated within a certain range. The overall utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity increased during the month, and the market supply was relatively sufficient. The upstream acetic acid price fell, and the negative impact of cost was felt. The mentality of ethyl acetate was not good, and the downstream side maintained a focus on demand. The trading atmosphere on the market was average, and under the supply-demand game, the price of ethyl acetate fluctuated narrowly throughout the month.

According to the Business Society Acetic Acid Commodity Market Analysis System, as of February 28th, the price was 2800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.08% compared to the acetic acid price of 2950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The raw material side acetic acid market is weak and volatile, with weak cost support and lower profits for ethyl acetate.

Looking at the future market, the current price of ethyl acetate is running weakly and steadily, with lukewarm downstream support for the market. In the later stage, some enterprises plan to increase the load of ethyl acetate equipment, and the expected increase in on-site supply will increase the pressure on market supply. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will continue to run weakly in the future, and specific attention will be paid to changes in supplier equipment and downstream follow-up.