According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of May 15, 2024, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1048 yuan/ton. Compared with the reference price of 1042 yuan/ton on May 5 and 1, the price increased by 6 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.58%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in early May, the overall domestic phosphate ore market showed a slight increase and then remained stable and consolidated. In the first week after the holiday, the demand for phosphate ore in the terminal market has improved, and the enthusiasm for purchasing upstream raw materials has increased. The overall pace of phosphate ore shipments has been boosted, and the overall supply and demand in the market have improved. Some mining areas have a tight supply of phosphate ore, and the price of mid to high end phosphate ore has been raised by about 20 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the overall phosphorus ore market remained high and consolidated. As of May 15th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1100 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to block ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated based on actual orders.

Attached are the market prices of phosphate ore in some domestic regions (for reference only):

Product/ Region/ Taste/ Price/ Remarks/ Date

Phosphate ore/ Guizhou region/ 30 grade/ 1030-1100 yuan/ton/ Stable operation/ May 15th

Phosphate ore/ Guangxi region/ 30 grade/ 1050-1090 yuan/ton/ Organize and run/ May 15th

Phosphate ore/ Sichuan region/ 30 grade/ 1050-1080 yuan/ton/ Stable operation/ May 15th

Phosphate ore/ Yunnan region/ 30 grade/ 1050-1080 yuan/ton/ Stable operation/ May 15th

Phosphate ore/ Hubei region/ 30 grade/ 1070-1100 yuan/ton/ Stable operation/ May 15th

Downstream ammonium phosphate: In early May, the domestic ammonium phosphate market showed an overall upward trend. On May 14th, the reference average price of monoammonium phosphate in the domestic market was 2893 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.4% compared to May 1st (2853.33 yuan/ton). At present, the supply of monoammonium phosphate is tight, market demand is increasing, the trading atmosphere is good, and the market is operating at a high price.

Future analysis

At present, the inquiry atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and some areas have a clear pace of phosphate ore shipments. The mentality of the industry is good. The phosphate ore data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly operate with stable and minor adjustments, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 13, 2024, the reference price of domestic n-propanol market was 7866 yuan/ton, which was basically unchanged compared to May 1. Compared with April 1 (reference price of n-propanol was 7916 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.63%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in the recent period (5.9-5.13), the domestic n-propanol market has remained stable and consolidated, with limited fluctuations in the n-propanol market. The fundamentals of n-propanol have remained calm, with stable production on the supply side, normal shipments from large factories in Shandong, and stable prices. The normal operation of the n-propanol plant in Nanjing is normal, and n-propanol is mainly used for self use, and external quotations remain stable. At present, the overall supply and demand transmission in the n-propanol market is normal, and downstream purchases are made on demand. As of May 13th, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7200-7600 yuan/ton, with a relatively high price of around 7700-7800 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of n-propanol in Nanjing region is around 8500-8800 yuan/ton, and specific orders need to be negotiated based on actual transactions.

Prediction of future market trends of n-propanol

At present, the trading atmosphere in the domestic n-propanol market is mild, and downstream inquiries are made on demand. The mentality of the operators is stable. According to the n-propanol data analyst of Business Society, in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, on May 11, 2024, the reference market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 7500 yuan/ton. Compared with May 5 (reference price of propylene glycol was 7650 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.37%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in the first week after May Day Labor Day, the overall domestic propylene glycol market continued to be weak and decline. Looking back at the pre holiday period, the overall pre holiday stocking performance of the propylene glycol market was poor. However, with the return after the holiday, the propylene glycol market did not receive effective market support. The trading atmosphere on the propylene glycol market remained weak, with poor new order inquiries. The downstream demand side continued to be weak, and the focus of the propylene glycol market continued to explore downwards. As of May 11th, the domestic propylene glycol market price is around 7300-7600 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream epoxy propane: After the holiday, the overall epoxy propane market in Shandong region remained stable at a high level, with a reference price of 9225 yuan/ton on May 11th. The high and stable operation of epoxy propane has not reduced the cost pressure on the propylene glycol market, and the overall pressure on the propylene glycol market has declined during the week.

Future analysis

At present, downstream demand for propylene glycol is still sluggish, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on the market. However, with high cost prices and almost bottoming out prices, the risk of a significant downturn in the propylene glycol market in the future is relatively small. A propylene glycol data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly undergo narrow adjustments, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in fundamental news.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the isobutene market has remained stable this week. As of May 9th, the mainstream price of isobutene (≥ 99, loose water) in China was 12125 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week and increased by 100 yuan or 4.04% compared to April.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side:

The concentrated release of bearish news in the early May crude oil market has put pressure on the risk premium of crude oil. International crude oil has experienced a significant decline. As of today, the mainstream price of MTBE is 7187.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38% from May 1st and a decrease of 4.1% from April. In early May, the maintenance equipment started construction one after another, and the inventory on site gradually increased.

Demand side:

Downstream factories mainly purchase based on actual needs and adopt a relatively cautious attitude. Although the main downstream factories maintain a normal production rhythm, the operating rate of the terminal factories is relatively low, and the procurement enthusiasm is not high.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Based on the current situation, the on-site inventory status of isobutene is still good, and the supply of goods is relatively abundant in the short term. However, due to the combined influence of multiple factors, cost support shows a weakening trend. Presenting a dual bearish outlook, it is expected that the isobutene market will be dominated by weak consolidation in the short term.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 8th, the average market price of methyl acetate was 4462 yuan/ton, and on May 1st, the average market price of methyl acetate was 4387 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.71 yuan from last week.

In terms of cost

Methanol: Domestic methanol prices have slightly increased this week. On May 8th, the price of methanol was 2670 yuan/ton, and on May 1st, the price of methanol was 2651 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69% compared to last week. In the first part of May, some large methanol maintenance still exists, and there is still a need for replenishment support after the holiday.

Acetic acid: The domestic price of acetic acid has increased this week. On May 8th, the price of acetic acid was 3300 yuan/ton, and on May 1st, the price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.54% from last week. At present, the operating rate of acetic acid enterprises has returned to a relatively high level, and the supply of goods from suppliers is sufficient. Enterprises actively arrange inventory before the holiday, and the focus of market negotiations increases after the holiday.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the rising prices of upstream acetic acid and methanol have led to increased cost benefits. Downstream procurement follows up on demand, with better shipments from enterprises and fluctuations in trading quotes from traders, resulting in overall narrow fluctuations in market prices. It is expected that the methyl acetate market will consolidate and rise in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate showed a mixed trend in April, maintaining a range of price fluctuations. On April 30th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 108400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.31% compared to the average price of 107000 yuan/ton on April 1st. On April 30th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 115400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52% compared to the average price of 116000 yuan/ton on April 1st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate maintained an upward trend in early April. In terms of supply, smelting enterprises generally have a more obvious reluctance to sell individual orders, while the sentiment of individual orders supporting prices has not changed significantly. Most lithium salt enterprises have raised their prices. In addition, the current inventory level of salt lake enterprises is relatively low, and the overall production recovery pace of lithium salt recycling enterprises is generally slower than that of raw material lithium salt enterprises. This makes the overall supply of spot liquid goods tend to be tight.

In terms of demand, during the Qingming holiday, the trading status of the spot market was basically stagnant, and downstream enterprises such as positive electrodes basically maintained their normal production rhythm by consuming existing inventory. After the end of the holiday, downstream market inquiries are more active, and companies are more likely to purchase essential goods to replenish inventory, which also drives the overall transaction price focus to gradually increase.

In mid to late April, the price difference between industrial grade lithium carbonate and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to narrow, and the price decline of electric carbon was greater than that of industrial carbon. In terms of supply, the production recovery and profit margin restoration after maintenance by lithium salt enterprises have led to a continuous increase in lithium carbonate production. With the rise of domestic temperatures, the mining and production of lithium salts have been relatively smooth. Except for long-term contract orders, lithium salt enterprises have continued to maintain a positive attitude towards selling individual orders, and the price of individual orders has not changed significantly.

In terms of demand, downstream positive electrode enterprises purchase low-priced goods from a small number of lithium salt enterprises and the trading market to supplement the supply of scattered orders outside the long-term contract. However, their wait-and-see sentiment rises as prices fall, and there has been no replenishment action by positive electrode enterprises in the spot market. However, most enterprises have completed the stocking during the May Day period, and currently have no urgent purchasing ideas. They are generally waiting for lower or more favorable prices in the future market before proceeding with essential purchases, resulting in a relatively light overall situation of individual transactions in the market.

The market price of lithium hydroxide fluctuated slightly in April, with strong cost support for upstream spodumene concentrate and lithium carbonate prices. The supply side finished product inventory was in the middle range, and downstream high nickel production was extremely stable with an increase. The market inquiry atmosphere was active, but the mentality of following up on high priced raw materials was still cautious, with low rigid demand as the main focus. The market wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, and prices fluctuated and rose narrowly. At the end of the month and before the holiday, there has been an increase in downstream rigid demand stocking, and enterprises are observing the market to adjust their prices flexibly and ship according to the market. The lithium hydroxide market fluctuates narrowly.

Downstream prices of lithium iron phosphate continued to rise in April, while upstream prices of iron phosphate and lithium carbonate were dominant, forming favorable support on the cost side. The demand terminal new energy vehicle market is showing a continuous upward trend, and the market share is also constantly increasing, which is beneficial for the demand for lithium iron phosphate. The export volume of lithium iron phosphate has also continued to rise, and in the context of the transformation of new energy, the new energy storage market has shown strong growth momentum.

In terms of futures, the price of lithium carbonate futures in April maintained a range of fluctuations and consolidation. On April 30th, the opening price of the LC2407 contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 116000 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 117200 yuan/ton and a closing price of 111450 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 2.15%. The trading volume was 242300 lots and the position was 179848 lots.

According to lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society, the current market’s May Day holiday inventory of raw materials is also nearing its end, and downstream enterprises have little willingness to purchase. The market has entered a state of price but no market. From the current procurement and sales situation and attitudes of both supply and demand sides, the overall fluctuation of lithium carbonate prices is jointly limited. However, with the continuous recovery

of the supply side, it is expected that the short-term price of lithium carbonate will remain stable and wait-and-see.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of anhydrous calcium chloride in China slightly declined in April, with a content of 94%. At the end of the month, the price of anhydrous calcium chloride remained at 1325.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.39% compared to the price of 1357.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Supply side: In April, mainstream domestic distributors with a 94% content of anhydrous calcium chloride offered slightly lower prices. Calcium chloride manufacturers started operating normally and production was stable, but sales showed some weakness. Due to fierce market competition, some manufacturers may have offered certain discounts on prices in order to compete for market share, but overall demand has not shown significant growth.

Cost side: According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price increased by 5.41% in April. As of the end of the month, the average market price was 97.5 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month still fell by 45% year-on-year. From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market performed relatively strong in April, with manufacturers maintaining a low operating rate and low inventory. The manufacturer’s equipment remains stable, the price of acid production remains rigid and stable, and the sales are relatively active.

On the demand side, calcium chloride has a wide range of applications, including industrial production, water treatment, refrigeration and other industries. Based on current market feedback, the demand for calcium chloride in these industries is still at a normal level and has not experienced significant fluctuations. Therefore, despite slightly weak sales, calcium chloride manufacturers still have stable shipping performance.

Looking at the future market: Although the price of hydrochloric acid has recently risen, the supply side has remained stable, and enterprises in the main production areas are producing normally, with sufficient market supply. On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, with little change in market transactions. At present, the market is still in a situation of oversupply, so it is expected that the domestic anhydrous calcium chloride market will remain weak and mainly consolidate in the near future.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in April, the mainstream market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China fluctuated and declined. On the 30th, the market reported around 13310 yuan/ton, and on the 1st, it reported around 13440 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 0.97%. This month, the prices of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid have risen, fuel prices have risen, and the cost of polyacrylamide has risen. Enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally, and the market supply is abundant. The mainstream market trend of polyacrylamide is mainly weak and consolidating.

Raw material acrylonitrile: After the continuous increase in acrylic acid prices in April, it remained stable and operated on a wait-and-see basis. In the first half of the month, cost support was still acceptable, with companies mainly executing pre received orders in the early stage, with tight spot prices and supply side pressure free support for continuous increases in acrylic acid prices. The downstream inquiry atmosphere was active, and there was a high intention to replenish at low prices. The follow-up of high priced raw materials was relatively cautious, and the overall performance of the demand side was average, with a focus on continuing rigid demand procurement. In the second half of the month, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated and fell, with some equipment fluctuating. Costs and supply support still exist. Downstream companies chose to lower their rigid demand and stock up in moderation before the holiday, and their follow-up to high prices is still average. Most production companies remained stable in their quotes, while distributors mainly followed the market and shipped according to the market.

Raw material acrylic acid: In April, the market for acrylonitrile saw a significant increase. As of April 29th, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile from the tank was 10850 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.91% from 9962 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Narrow consolidation of raw material propylene prices, slight decrease in liquid ammonia prices, and weak cost support for acrylonitrile; One of the main downstream industries, ABS, continues to experience a slight decline in production, with weak support from demand for acrylonitrile; Acrylonitrile production remains low, providing strong support for the market; As of the 29th, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile from the tank in East China was between 10800 and 11000 yuan/ton.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic liquefied natural gas market prices were relatively strong and increased in April. In early April, domestic demand for liquefied natural gas performed poorly, with the market mainly oversupplied and liquid prices slightly declining. During the Qingming Festival, hazardous chemical vehicles were restricted and transportation was not smooth. After the Qingming Festival, transportation resumed smoothly and market trading increased. Maintenance of some domestic liquid plants has led to a decrease in the supply of liquefied natural gas. In the context of tight supply, low liquid prices are starting to push upwards. Downstream restocking enthusiasm has increased, market demand has recovered, and the atmosphere of liquid factory adjustment is obvious. In mid April, due to the rise in import gas prices, domestic liquefied natural gas prices followed suit, stimulating an increase in domestic terminal prices, and both sea and land prices of liquefied natural gas rose. At the end of the month, the rise of domestic liquefied natural gas slowed down, and the market was mainly wait-and-see.

Market forecast: In April, raw material cost prices will rise, fuel prices will rise, and polyacrylamide costs will rise. On the supply side, enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally and the market supply is abundant; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, with stable market transactions being the main focus. At present, the market is still in a situation of oversupply, and it is expected that weak domestic polyacrylamide will be mainly consolidated after the holiday.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 29th, the quotation for isooctanol was 9680 yuan/ton, a fluctuation of 3.78% compared to the price of 10060 yuan/ton on April 1st. In April, isooctanol did not continue its decline in March, and the price of isooctanol weakened and consolidated. The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and consolidates, with limited cost support; The production of plasticizer enterprises has slightly decreased, and downstream customers have average purchasing enthusiasm. Isooctanol manufacturers sell at low prices, and the positive support for Isooctanol has weakened.

Propylene prices fluctuated and consolidated in April

According to the propylene commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 29th, the propylene price was quoted at 6794.60 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 0.79% compared to the propylene price of 6848.60 yuan/ton on April 1st. The high price of crude oil has fallen, and the cost of propylene has decreased. In April, the price of propylene first rose and then fell; Downstream production of propylene has decreased, downstream customers are in urgent need of procurement, propylene enterprises have sufficient supply, propylene enterprises have decreased willingness to raise prices, and propylene prices are weak and consolidating.

Downstream fluctuations and declines in the isooctanol industry chain in April

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the isooctanol industry chain experienced a complete decline in April. The downstream products of the isooctanol industry chain have all experienced varying degrees of decline, and the demand support for isooctanol has weakened. In April, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell. Downstream demand has decreased, and the downward pressure on isooctanol will increase in the future.

Future expectations

According to analysts from Business Society’s octanol product data, in terms of cost, propylene prices are weak and consolidating, while support for isooctanol costs is weakened; On the supply side, the inventory of isooctanol manufacturers is low, and manufacturers are actively shipping at low prices, resulting in sufficient supply of isooctanol; In terms of demand, downstream product prices of isooctanol fluctuated and fell in April, with limited support for downstream demand. Stock up before the May Day holiday, and support for downstream demand growth still exists. In the future, with sufficient supply of octanol and limited demand support, cost support is weakened, and it is expected that octanol prices will fluctuate and consolidate weakly in the future.

This week (4.22-28), domestic adipic acid maintained stable operation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 28th, the weekly increase and decrease of succinic acid for this week was 0. At present, the market quotation range for adipic acid is between 9500-9700 yuan/ton. The main reason is that there is not much positive impact on the cost side, supply and demand remain stable, and the market lacks momentum to push up.

Cost side: Overall profit from raw material costs

Since entering April, crude oil has maintained a range adjustment as the main trend, and the cost side has gradually weakened compared to the previous period. The domestic pure benzene price has not changed much this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, pure benzene has slightly declined this week, with a decline of 0.1%. The main refinery’s quotation has not changed much. Although the price of pure benzene has slightly fallen this week, there is still some support on the cost side at present; By the weekend, the spot trading range in East China is between 8700-8750 yuan/ton.

Supply side: Rumors of continuous supply and tightening expectations for equipment maintenance in enterprises

From the perspective of market supply: At the end of the month, domestic large factories of adipic acid introduced settlement prices, which have not changed much compared to the previous month. But the listing price in May was generally lower than last month. There may be room for price loosening by the manufacturer in the later stage. This is mainly based on the current situation where there is not much change in the equipment. But with the continuous release of maintenance news in the later stage, the expected decrease in supply may lead to a sustained strong operation of adipic acid. Specifically, in terms of equipment, both Haili and Tianli High tech have maintenance plans next month. In the later stage of supply, it may be beneficial for the formation of adipic acid.

Demand side: Difficulty in forming a strong boost on the demand side

The downstream of adipic acid is relatively sluggish. Terminal procurement maintains essential needs. Taking PA66 as an example, the price remained low and unchanged this week. Currently, the price has reached a high level, and downstream consumers generally have resistance to high prices. The demand in the end market is average, and more purchases are made on demand. The market spot supply and demand remain stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the price of PA66 this week was 0. During the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang region is around 23000 yuan/ton.

Future prospects

Regarding the future market, analysts from Shengyishe Adipic Acid believe that the current cost side is favorable or downplayed, with crude oil at a high level, but the possibility of further upward movement in the future is small. Pure benzene prices may remain weak, and factories have shown a clear willingness to support the market. The supply side will still maintain a tight pattern, which will continue to support the strong pattern of Adipic Acid prices. Considering the constraints on the demand side, the increase in adipic acid will be limited.