Price trend in 2023

According to data from Business Society, the average market price of thermal phosphoric acid on January 1st was 9025 yuan/ton, and on December 31st, the average market price of thermal phosphoric acid was 6580 yuan/ton. In 2023, the domestic thermal phosphoric acid market fell by 27.09% for the whole year. The highest value of thermal phosphoric acid for the year was 9050 yuan/ton on January 10th, and the lowest value for the year was 5810 yuan/ton on May 19th.

According to data from Business Society, the average market price of wet process phosphoric acid was 8966 yuan/ton on January 1st, and 6450 yuan/ton on December 31st. In 2023, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid market fell by 28.07% for the whole year. The highest value of wet process phosphoric acid for the year was 9116 yuan/ton on January 29th, and the lowest value for the year was 5983 yuan/ton on May 26th.

2023 Market Analysis

The phosphoric acid market experienced a significant decline in the first half of 2023, followed by a slight increase in the second half and a subsequent decline. In January, the phosphoric acid market fluctuated and stabilized. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been adjusted and operated, and there has been no significant change in the cost side for the time being. Before the Spring Festival, downstream phosphoric acid enterprises gradually stopped work and had holidays, resulting in a decrease in terminal procurement. The phosphoric acid market is operating in a stalemate, and the industry is mostly wait-and-see. The post holiday phosphoric acid market is gradually recovering. From February to May, the phosphoric acid market continued to decline. The prices of raw materials such as yellow phosphorus and phosphate ore have been lowered, resulting in insufficient cost support. Downstream demand is weak, overall trading is weak, and the market is mainly bearish. Both cost and demand are weak, and domestic phosphoric acid prices have continuously decreased. From June to October, the prices of phosphoric acid in the market have risen. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has risen, and cost support is favorable. Downstream rigid demand procurement is the main focus, and the supply of wet acid is relatively tight. From November to December, the market price of phosphoric acid fell again. The market for raw material yellow phosphorus and phosphate ore continues to weaken, and the cost support for phosphoric acid is insufficient. The market demand is sluggish, trading is weak, and enterprise quotations have been lowered, resulting in a strong bearish sentiment in the market.

According to the K-bar chart of the year 2023, it can be seen that the maximum increase in phosphoric acid for the year was in July, with a growth rate of 5.4%. The largest decline of the year in April was 13.41%.

2024 Aftermarket Forecast

Cost situation

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. In 2023, a year of supply-demand contradiction in the yellow phosphorus market, the overall market price fell, with a price drop of 30.68% within the year. Overall, the future will maintain stable development. Domestic yellow phosphorus production enterprises need to increase investment in environmental protection, improve production processes, reduce energy consumption and pollution emissions, and promote the industry’s development towards green and sustainable direction.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. In 2023, the phosphate ore market has seen a wide range of ups and downs, but has stabilized and ended. In 2024, the overall supply side of phosphate ore will remain tight, providing market support and increasing downstream demand. The overall phosphate ore market is still on the rise, but the current market price is already at a high level. Therefore, the expected price increase in the phosphate ore market in 2024 is limited.

Supply situation

Since 2017, the production capacity of thermal phosphoric acid has gradually decreased, while the production capacity of wet process purified acid has gradually increased, and the overall production capacity has continued to increase. In 2022, the demand for new energy battery materials in China will increase, and the scale of the phosphoric acid market will increase. The market size of wet process phosphoric acid is 19.879 billion yuan, and the market size of thermal process phosphoric acid is 6.372 billion yuan. It is expected that the industrial phosphoric acid production capacity will reach 2.3188 million tons by 2023.

Export situation

The export volume of food grade phosphoric acid from China in 2023 was 363900 tons, a decrease of 19.63% compared to the same period last year. The export amount was 396 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 45.02% compared to 2022. Due to significant fluctuations in raw materials this year, foreign buyers have been more cautious, resulting in a decrease in export volume. There is little improvement in the short term, and it is expected that the export market in 2024 will not be optimistic.

Demand situation

The downstream demand in the phosphoric acid market in 2023 is mainly in industries such as phosphate, food additives, and surface treatment (phosphating and oxidation). Most of it is used for the production of phosphates. Phosphoric acid is one of the main raw materials for lithium iron phosphate. Due to the rapid development of the new energy industry in recent years, the demand for phosphoric acid has significantly increased.

summary

In summary, in 2023, the domestic phosphoric acid market was affected by weakened costs, high market supply, and reduced export orders, resulting in an overall weak and downward trend in the market. It is expected that the cost side and demand will be supported in 2024, but there will still be oversupply and poor export conditions. The domestic phosphoric acid market will mainly fluctuate, consolidate and operate. In recent years, under the pressure of environmental protection policies for phosphorus chemical industry, China’s phosphoric acid production technology will continue to improve and optimize.

Price trend:

According to monitoring data from Shengyishe, as of January 26th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe sponge titanium was 51500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.74% compared to the beginning of this week (53500.00 yuan/ton).

Analysis of influencing factors:

The production capacity of sponge titanium enterprises throughout the entire process has been released, and inventory levels have increased, resulting in oversupply of domestic sponge titanium. Among them, Liaoning has the largest increase in production, with a growth rate of 45%. At present, there is overcapacity in sponge titanium production, and the raw material end continues to rise, resulting in high costs. Downstream titanium material market demand is weak. However, as the end of the year approaches, the stocking sentiment has improved and the inventory has eased, but the signing price remains negotiable.

Post forecast:

Business Society Sponge Titanium Analyst believes that there is not much room for price increase in the sponge titanium market next week and it will continue to operate weakly and steadily.

Last week’s review: The domestic MIBK market continued to decline, with the focus of negotiations dropping to 14400 yuan/ton. The current industry operating rate is around 60%, and there is little short-term fluctuation.

The raw material acetone market has risen narrowly. As of now, the negotiated price in the acetone market in East China is between 6850-6900 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere in the market was average during the week. At the beginning of the week, with the arrival of port supplies, domestic factories are still in a loss making state. Traders are firm in their offers, and low prices are not offered. Petrochemical enterprises are maintaining stability and shipping according to plan, and downstream demand is following up. Purchasing sentiment is average, and transactions are flat.

From a terminal perspective, the intention to purchase large orders has decreased, and the demand is mostly for small orders to follow up. Large enterprises enter the market with caution and tend to operate targeted contracts, but traders are holding onto the market and reluctant to sell, resulting in a significant increase in small order prices.

The planned quantity on the demand side is poor, and traders have a clear intention to ship. The actual supply exceeds the demand, and it is expected that the MIBK market will continue to decline today.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 22, the price of DOP was 11900 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.49% compared to the price of 12080 yuan/ton on January 15. The cost support for plasticizer DOP has weakened, and the price of DOP has fluctuated and fallen this week.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 22, the price of isooctanol was 12900 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.19% compared to the price of isooctanol on January 15, which was 12925 yuan/ton. Large plasticizer manufacturers are in urgent need of procurement, resulting in weaker transactions of isooctanol. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, and the support for rising raw materials has weakened. The downward pressure on DOP has increased. Isooctanol manufacturers are offering discounts to sell, leading to an increase in transactions and increased support for the rise of isooctanol in the future.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that this week, the raw material isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost support for plasticizer DOP is insufficient. In addition, isooctanol manufacturers are offering discounts to sell, resulting in an increase in isooctanol transactions and increased support for the rise of isooctanol in the future. In the future, with stable supply and increased cost support, it is expected that DOP prices will consolidate strongly.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and spot prices have mostly remained stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 19th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13050 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market in Shengyishe, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region rose rapidly this week, with the increase concentrated in the second half of the week. Boosted by the rise in raw material methanol prices, formaldehyde has risen upstream. But as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream panel factories are taking more vacations, making it difficult to release demand. In addition, it will take time for the positive news to spread to POM, and overall support for POM costs is gradually warming.

In terms of supply:

The overall operating rate of domestic POM enterprises continued to rebound this week. The industry equipment load is approximately 84%. There are relatively few maintenance arrangements in the future, and it is expected that POM production will remain at a high level. Most enterprises have relatively low inventory levels and a strong willingness to support the market. The supply side still has sufficient support for POM spot goods.

In terms of demand:

This week, downstream POM enterprises in China have had a poor level of production, with companies mainly digesting inventory. On exchange trading was weak, and POM consumption continued to be weak. The operator needs to follow up with a small amount of urgent needs, operates cautiously, and resists high priced sources of goods. There has been no concentrated release of pre holiday stocking operations, and overall, the demand side’s support for POM spot prices is weak.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market has been stagnant this week. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has increased narrowly, and the inventory position of enterprises is low, resulting in moderate pressure on the supply side. Manufacturers have stabilized market confidence through market support operations, but the enthusiasm of downstream buyers is poor, and some merchants are under high shipping pressure. Terminal enterprises are operating at a low level, and the number of enterprises taking holidays before holidays continues to increase. The overall load is decreasing, and purchasing operations are cautious. On exchange trading is weak, and it is expected that the POM market will continue to consolidate at a high level in the near future.

Recently (1.8-1.16), the price of isooctyl acrylate has remained stable. According to data from Business Society, as of January 16th, the average price of isooctyl acrylate in East China was 13425 yuan/ton, and the prices in various regions are as follows:

The reference price for the East China market is 14500 yuan/ton; The reference price for the North China market is 14600 yuan/ton, while the reference price for the South China market is 14700 yuan/ton;

In terms of isooctyl acrylate, although there is still a slight increase in the price of raw material octanol, after the price of isooctyl acrylate rose to a high level in the early stage, high priced shipments were hindered, market inquiries and trading volume weakened, leading to a certain price decline.

The downstream lotion, tape master roll and other industries of isooctyl acrylate give priority to consuming their own inventory. The overall purchasing enthusiasm is weak, and the overall performance of the end consumer end is flat. Although there is a possibility of stocking up before the festival in the future, the downstream expectation is cautious, which may affect the stocking rhythm of the market.

According to an analyst at Business Society, the raw material side is currently showing a slight weak performance, which lacks further driving force for the isooctyl acrylate market in the short term. However, demand constraints still constrain the market from achieving sustained improvement. It is expected that the market for isooctyl acrylate will fluctuate narrowly in the near future.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have fallen this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China dropped from 3016.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3000 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.55%, and the weekend price fell by 22.08% year-on-year. On January 15th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 78.60, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 62.96% from the highest point in the cycle of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 41.65% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have fallen this week, and the inventory levels of manufacturers are average.

The upstream blue charcoal market is consolidating at a low level, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly declined. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal for intermediate materials was around 1110 yuan/ton, with prices consolidating at a low level and cost support average. The PVC market price has slightly declined this week, dropping from 5572 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5550 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.39%. Weekend prices fell 10.72% year-on-year. The PVC market price has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may experience a volatile decline in the future market

In late January, the calcium carbide market may experience narrow fluctuations and mainly decline. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, downstream demand has weakened, raw material blue charcoal prices have stabilized at low levels, and cost support is average. In the future, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall narrowly in late January, with consolidation being the main trend.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the beginning of this week was 3543 yuan/ton, and the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the end of this week was 3510 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.94%.

The domestic potassium sulfate market is affected by the price of raw material potassium chloride, and the price continues to decline, with a decrease of 50-100 yuan/ton. The production of resource-based potassium sulfate manufacturers is normal, and most of the previous orders are being executed gradually. Currently, the market price of 52% potassium powder in Guotou Luo is mostly between 3600-3700 yuan/ton, and the market price of 50% potassium powder in Qinghai is mostly between 3450-3500 yuan/ton. The actual transaction may vary slightly in different regions.

The overall operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer factories has been continuously declining recently, especially for small and medium-sized compound fertilizer factories who have stated that they have no plans to resume production before the year, and the operating rate of some large compound fertilizer factories is also weakening. Therefore, the demand for raw materials is not sufficient, and procurement is limited.

Prediction: The supply-demand contradiction in the domestic potassium fertilizer market is more prominent, and there is a lack of positive support in the short term. It is expected that the domestic potassium fertilizer market prices will be mainly weak and declining in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of soda ash in 2023 is in a “W” shape. At the beginning of the year, the average market price of soda ash was 2648 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the price of soda ash was 2790 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.36%.

Take a look at the comparison chart of soda ash prices: The annual price comparison chart of Business Society shows that the price of soda ash in 2023 is at a relatively low price level. Can soda ash operate strongly in 2024?

Firstly, let’s take a look at the specific price trend of pure alkali in 2023. Prices increased from January to mid March, decreased from the end of March to the end of May, increased from early June to mid to late September, decreased from the end of September to late October, increased from early November to mid December, and stabilized after mid December.

Price increase stage from January to mid March: After the Spring Festival, the supply of soda ash is relatively stable, and downstream glass is mostly purchased according to demand, resulting in a relatively balanced supply and demand of soda ash. From the end of March to the end of May, prices fell. From the supply side, data shows that the inventory of soda ash manufacturers has increased from 250000 tons to 520000 tons, and the overall operating rate of soda ash is around 90%. There are currently no new maintenance plans, and the supply of soda ash has increased. The downstream demand for glass is average, and the price of soda ash has decreased. From early June to mid to late September, prices increased, while the price of soda ash increased. Soda ash enterprises are undergoing maintenance, and the maintenance plan exceeds expectations. The supply of soda ash is slightly tight, and upstream soda ash manufacturers have the initiative. Prices have continued to rise, while downstream companies can only accept significant price increases. From the end of September to the end of October, prices fell, and the price of soda ash operated weakly. Mainly due to the recovery of the soda ash plant and the restoration of supply. Moreover, downstream imports of soda ash have increased, resulting in a decrease in soda ash prices. From early November to mid December, prices rose, and the price of soda ash remained strong. Recently, the production of soda ash has remained at around 84%, and the amount of soda ash has decreased in the short term. Soda ash manufacturers have continued to raise prices. After mid December, prices have stabilized, and data shows that there were around 350000 tons of pure alkali inventory during the week, and downstream purchases were made on demand.

What is the trend of pure alkali in 2024, despite the ups and downs in 2023?

From a supply perspective, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative production of soda ash from January to November 2023 was 29.575 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. The expected annual production is around 32.4 million tons, an increase of about 11% compared to 2022. The production in 2024 is expected to reach over 36 million tons according to the plan, with an increase of over 3.5 million tons. Firstly, all three lines of Yuanxing Energy Phase I and Jinshan Phase V will be completed, while the ignition and commissioning of the fourth line will be postponed until 2024. Lianyungang Alkali Industry is expected to start production with 1.2 million tons in the second half of 2024. It is expected that the new production capacity will be limited in 2024, but the new production will be relatively large.

In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of soda ash in 2023 was at a low level in previous years, with an extremely low inventory of less than 500000 tons throughout the year. Especially during the maintenance season from August to September, the lowest inventory reached a historical low of around 130000 yuan. From the inventory, it can be seen that there was no serious overcapacity in 2023 for soda ash, but rather a shortage of supply. With the release of production capacity, it is expected that the total inventory of soda ash will exceed 3 million to 4 million tons in 2024, indicating significant supply pressure.

In terms of imports and exports: According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative import volume from January to November 2023 was 617500 tons, an increase of 505100 tons compared to the same period last year, with a growth rate of 449.38%; The cumulative export volume from January to November 2023 was 1.4036 million tons, a decrease of 462300 tons or 24.78% compared to the same period last year. In 2023, the import volume of domestic soda ash was relatively small, while the export volume increased significantly, mainly due to the rising price difference between domestic and foreign markets. From the current price difference between domestic and foreign markets, there is still an expectation of imports for domestic clothing, as the price of caustic soda has decreased and the downward pressure on spot prices has increased. In 2024, there may be less imports of caustic soda and more exports.

In terms of demand: In 2023, the demand for soda ash will maintain a rapid growth, mainly affected by the increase in photovoltaic glass production. Although the real estate industry is in a downturn overall, under policy guidance, the completed area from January to November increased by 17.9% year-on-year. Perhaps the growth rate of domestic housing completed area in 2024 may turn negative. However, in the case of guaranteed delivery in the real estate market in 2024, glass has a rigid demand for soda ash, and the possibility of reducing the quantity of float glass is unlikely.

Comprehensive prediction: Business Society analysts believe that the supply side will maintain a loose situation, and the production of soda ash will continue to increase in 2024. Inventory will also exceed 3 million tons or about 4 million tons. In terms of imports, there may be less imports and more exports in 2024. Downstream glass has a rigid demand for soda ash, and prices in the second half of the year may be better than those in the first half. It is expected that the price of soda ash will first decrease and then increase, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride has slightly declined this week. The price of potassium chloride has dropped from 3080 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3005 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.44%, a year-on-year decrease of 22.70%. On January 7th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 95.40, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 45.36% from the highest point in the cycle of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 63.78% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-03-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

The prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have declined this week. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 2860 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is around 2750-2800 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port is around 2900-2950 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2650 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market has slightly decreased this week. The price has dropped from 75310 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7480 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.40%. The weekend price has dropped by 17.80% year-on-year. The market price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5375 yuan/ton over the weekend, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.28%. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their demand for potassium chloride.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to late January, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall narrowly, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with rigid demand procurement being the main focus. The circulation of potassium chloride is tight, and the supply of goods at the port has slightly increased. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.