First, the price trend

According to business figures, the market trend of powdery ammonium is stable this week, the average price of the domestic market is 2183 yuan/ton, the average price at the beginning of the week is 2183 yuan/ton, the weekend price is 2183 yuan/ton.

Second, the market analysis Products: At present, the domestic ammonium market stable operation, market demand is relatively flat, at present, most enterprises are still to carry out pre-order mainly. At present, Hubei area 60% ammonium Powder mainstream factory quotation 2200-2400 yuan/ton, the overall stable operation; Henan region Market stable operation, 55% ammonium Powder Factory Quotation 2000 Yuan-2200 yuan/ton, start smoothly; Anhui Region Market stable operation, 55% ammonium Powder Factory Quotation 2000 Yuan-2200 yuan/ton, Start smoothly.

Most of the enterprise equipment normal operation, normal orders, normal delivery. Industrial chain: Upstream raw material phosphoric acid market price decline, new single volume in general. Phosphorus ore prices remain stable. Sulfur prices fell.

Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have weaker demand for ammonium.

Third, the forecast of the aftermarket Business Society ammonium phosphate analysts believe that the company’s inventory gradually declined, but the transaction is flat, ammonium phosphate market in the short term may still maintain the stability.

The hydrofluoric acid Commodity Index of May 22 was 101.00, the same as yesterday, down 28.08% from 140.43 at the highest point in the cycle (2018-02-21), up 88.47% from the lowest 53.59 point on November 30, 2016.

(Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to present) According to statistics, 23rd domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend rose, the current domestic hydrofluoric acid market price of 11160 yuan/ton, domestic hydrofluoric acid start rate of less than 60%, enterprises reflect the current field of hydrofluoric acid spot supply tension, the recent field cargo situation improved, due to the higher raw materials fluorite, Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers raised the factory price, hydrofluoric acid market price trend rose. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid talks in the south is about 11000-11500 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 11000-12000 yuan/ton.

Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price increase, spot supply is slightly reduced, but the demand change is not very large, hydrofluoric acid market price trend rose. Recently downstream refrigerant product plant started in low, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand in general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market in general, hydrofluoric acid product price shock. Recently terminal downstream refrigerant market trading market has improved, R22 refrigerant device surface started in 60%,R22 market installation rate of temporary stability, the main production enterprises Scatterwater factory price of 18000-19000 yuan/ton between, but the production enterprises do not have scatterwater spot, more to the cylinder small shipment mainly. In addition, the actual demand for the market changes little, the shipment market compared to the previous increase. Domestic R134A market price trend is not good, production enterprises plant construction rate to maintain low, refrigerant market demand in general, manufacturers shipped to export-oriented.

But the market transaction price changes are not big, merchants on demand procurement, recently due to tight supply, hydrofluoric acid price trend rose. Refrigerant field transaction situation in general, refrigerant industry installation rate to maintain a low, for the upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is normal, but hydrofluoric acid spot supply is tight, business analyst Chen Ling think hydrofluoric acid market may continue to rise.

May 21, the hydrofluoric Acid Commodity Index was 100.54, up 0.63 points from yesterday, down 28.41% from 140.43 at the highest point in the cycle (2018-02-21), up 53.59 from its lowest point of 87.61% on November 30, 2016.

(Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to present) According to statistics, 22nd domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend rose, the current domestic hydrofluoric acid market price of 11130 yuan/ton, domestic hydrofluoric acid start rate of less than 60%, enterprises reflect the current field of hydrofluoric acid spot supply tension, the recent field cargo situation improved, due to the higher raw materials fluorite, Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers raised the factory price, hydrofluoric acid market price trend rose. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid talks in the south is about 11000 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 11000-11500 yuan/ton.

Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price increase, spot supply is slightly reduced, but the demand change is not very large, hydrofluoric acid market price trend rose. Recently downstream refrigerant product plant started in low, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand in general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market in general, hydrofluoric acid product price shock. Recently terminal downstream refrigerant market trading market has improved, R22 refrigerant device surface started in 60%,R22 market installation rate of temporary stability, the main production enterprises Scatterwater factory price of 18000-19000 yuan/ton between, but the production enterprises do not have scatterwater spot, more to the cylinder small shipment mainly. In addition, the actual demand for the market changes little, the shipment market compared to the previous increase. Domestic R134A market price trend is not good, production enterprises plant construction rate to maintain low, refrigerant market demand in general, manufacturers shipped to export-oriented.

But the market transaction price changes are not big, merchants on demand procurement, recently due to tight supply, hydrofluoric acid price trend rose. Refrigerant field transaction situation in general, refrigerant industry installation rate to maintain a low, for the upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is normal, but hydrofluoric acid spot supply is tight, business analyst Chen Ling think hydrofluoric acid market may continue to rise.

First, the price trend

According to business figures, the overall price of domestic xylene fell this week, with an average of 5625 yuan/ton of business at the beginning of the week, and the average price of an enterprise on weekends was a weekly low price, 5576 yuan/ton, and a weekly amplitude of 0.09%.

Ii. Analysis and review 1, crude oil: Sino-US trade talks bearish, the market waiting for OPEC and the alliance to cut production this weekend to discuss the relaxation of production cuts, coupled with a slight easing of tensions in the Middle East, international oil prices fell slightly in Friday.

The crude oil market is expected to remain volatile in the short term. 2, FOB South Korea xylene Reference price is also affected by crude oil, prices fluctuate up and down. Sinopec Branch, Xylene listed prices in some areas cut.

Port inventories fell in east China last week, at around 110,000 tonnes. 3, from the beginning of the Thursday, Xylene market has recovered, the price rebound. But the current market news is complex, some operators still hold the wait-and-see sentiment, continue to wait for the fundamentals of more information guidelines, short-term xylene prices still maintain a volatile trend.

Price Trend

This week the propane Market shocked down. At the beginning of the week, the average market price of propane was 4490 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 4477.5 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 0.23%, which was 0.57% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the domestic propane market is mainly downward, and the trading atmosphere is general. As of May 17, Dongming Petrochemical Company of Shandong Province has not offered any price for the time being. The ex-factory price of propane in Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Group is 4700 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group is 4600 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Huifeng Petrochemical Company is 4480 yuan/ton, that in Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Company is 4480 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong Binzhou Dayou Group is 4450 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of propane in Shandong Zhonghai Fine Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4350 yuan/ton, and that in Sinopec Qingdao Refinery and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4400 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The domestic liquefied petroleum gas (Shandong) market first restrained and then rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied petroleum gas market was 4466.67 yuan/ton, and the average price of the weekend was 4383.33 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price fell by 1.87%, which was 0.9% higher than that of the same period last year. Propylene (Shandong) in China rose steadily this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propylene (Shandong) was 6,659 yuan/ton per week. On Friday, the average price of propylene (Shandong) was 6,975 yuan/ton per week, with a weekly increase of 1.69%. May Saudi Amy CP: $525 per ton of propane, 10% higher than last month, equivalent to about 4137 yuan per ton of onshore cost. Butane is 530 US dollars per ton, down 5% from last month, equivalent to about 414 yuan per ton on shore.

This week, the trend of international crude oil oscillated, liquefied petroleum gas spot prices fell, bearish market mentality. In addition, the weather is gradually warming up, the market demand is not high, and the enthusiasm for purchasing has been reduced. CPs were introduced in May, although rising, but the increase was not large. The import wharf continues to reverse, and the market is in a situation of oversupply. At present, the market is short of favorable conditions. After the early replenishment downstream, the wait-and-see mood increases, the enthusiasm of entering the market is not high, and one after another, delisting consumes inventory. The shipment situation of the manufacturer is general, and the price center of gravity is lowered.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 18th week (5.6-5.10) of 2019, there were 24 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 3 commodities increased by more than 5% accounted for 4.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were dichloromethane (13.33%), trichloromethane (10.98%) and acetone (5.15%). There are 31 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrochloric acid (-34.43%), sulfuric acid (-21.48%) and ammonium chloride (-8.20%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.76%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propane analysts believe that the current demand is off-season, the market is in a situation of oversupply, coupled with the fluctuation of international oil prices, the downward trend of international spot, and the weak operation of propane under the influence of bad luck. Downstream market entry is more cautious, but the price has approached the cost, weekend prices have been revised back. Horizontal market adjustment is expected to dominate.

Last week (May 6, 2019 May 10, 2019), the port potassium stock was higher and the price of potassium chloride operated weakly.

May 13 China Potassium chloride Wholesale price index (CKPI) was 2212.07 points, down 5.37 points, or 0.24%, an increase of 132.44 points, or 6.37%, and a decrease of 1078.53 points over the base period. Supply situation: Domestic potassium, Qinghai Salt Lake Plant normal operation, Nissan 14000 tons or so, Salt Lake Benchmark products 60% Crystal powder to the station price to maintain 2350 yuan/ton, rebate policy to restore 50 yuan/ton, regional transaction price stabilization, maintain 2200-2250 yuan/ton or so. Imports of potassium, new sources continue to arrive, port inventory rose to about 2.18 million tons, by the port potassium high inventory impact, 62% Russian white potassium offer slightly lower, in 2350-2380 yuan/ton or so.

In terms of potassium trade, the northeast market demand decreased, the trading decreased, 62% Russian white potassium quotes fell to about 2100 yuan/ton. Demand situation: Northeast Spring ploughing demand is also basically over, the demand for potash fertilizer is light.

Affected by the demand of maize summer fertilizer in east China and North China, the construction rate of compound fertilizer enterprises remained high, and the overall starting rate was about 63.2%, because the demand was mainly high nitrogen compound fertilizer, and the support of potash fertilizer was insufficient. International market: International potash demand suspended, last week international potassium chloride prices remained stable. In Europe and Southeast Asia, demand is low and prices are stable; prices have remained stable in Brazil and Southeast Asia; and demand in the United States has declined, with prices slightly lower than last week. On the price side, the lower end of the fob price of potassium chloride in the Russian Federation decreased by 1 US dollars/ton, the high-end price of potassium chloride in Jordan increased by 2 U.S. dollars/ton, and the fob prices of potassium chloride in Canada, Israel, Southeast Asia and Brazil remained stable, at 253-298 USD/ton, 263-312 USD/ton, 290-310 USD/ton

340-350 USD/ton.
Table: International potassium chloride price change table
Products
Regional
Degree of change
(USD/T)
Spot price (USD/T)
2019-5-9
2019-5-2
Potassium chloride
(FOB Bulk)
Canada
0-0
253-298
253-298
Russian Federation
↓1-0
235-311
236-311
Jordan
0-↑2
263-289
263-287
Israel
0-0
263-312
263-312
CFR Southeast Asia
0-0
290-310
290-310
CFR Brazil
0-0
340-350
340-350

Data source: According to the relevant material collation Domestic market: The recent domestic potassium chloride market price is basically stable. Association monitoring data show that the price of domestic potassium chloride provinces, Hubei, Fujian province prices rose 54 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous week, other provinces prices remained stable; import potassium chloride in the provinces wholesale prices, Fujian province price compared to the previous week rose 33.3 Yuan/ton,

Hainan Province prices fell 25.7 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, and prices remained stable in other provinces.
Table: Domestic potassium chloride price change table
Varieties
Provinces
2019-5-9
(RMB/ton)
2019-5-2
(RMB/ton)
Price
(RMB/ton)
Chain
Domestic potassium chloride
Wholesale price
Hubei
2,300.0
2,246.0
54
2.4%
Fujian
3,200.0
3,150.0
50
1.6%
Imported Potassium chloride
Wholesale price
Fujian
2,850.0
2,816.7
33.3
1.2%
Hubei
2,761.0
2,786.7
-25.7
-0.9%

Source: China Agricultural Capital Circulation Association At present, the port potassium inventory pressure is large, the market potassium fertilizer supply is more abundant, and the northeast Spring ploughing fertilizer basically ended, the demand slightly reduced, the domestic potassium chloride price fell slightly. After the market, compound fertilizer enterprises into the production cycle of high nitrogen fertilizer for maize, the production of high potassium compound fertilizer still has a certain period of time, the demand for potash fertilizer is limited; in international markets, international potash demand has slowed and prices have stabilized in the short term. In summary, it is expected that the domestic potassium chloride price in the short term will be weak and stable, focusing on the procurement of raw materials in compound fertilizer enterprises.

Recently, aluminium prices have excelled. Following last Friday’s sharp rise, this week continued to work hard and again moved near the previous high. As of May 13, the Shanghai Aluminum 1906 contract closed at 14225 yuan/ton, with two consecutive trading gains of 1.6%. At present, the stock of society continues to decline, and the rising price of alumina pushes up the cost line. It is expected that the short-term oscillation of aluminium price will be strong, while the medium and long-term supply pressure will continue to be faced.

The macro-level is not good for the time being.

Previously, the official PMI of manufacturing industry in April was 50.1 and Caixin was 50.2, which were all down from March. At the end of April, the increase of social financing scale was 1.36 trillion yuan, which was 408 billion yuan less than the same period last year. In April, RMB loan was 102 trillion yuan, which was 16.15 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Export growth in April was -2.7% year-on-year, lower than expected by 3.0%, down from 14.2% of the previous value. No agreement was reached in the Sino-US trade negotiations. The United States has imposed tariffs on 200 billion US dollars of imported goods from our country. At the same time, it threatens to start the relevant procedures of taxing 25% of the remaining 325 billion US dollars of imported goods from our country. On the evening of May 13, China introduced counter-measures to raise tariff rates on some imported goods originating from the United States. The tariff rates have been implemented since 10:00 on June 1, 1919.

Cost Line Continues to Move Up

Domestic alumina prices have been declining since September, 2018, reaching a low of 2645 yuan/ton since August 21, 2017 on April 15, this year. The decline in alumina prices has gradually touched the cost line of some smelters. At the same time, with stricter environmental control, production cuts and shutdowns have begun to increase, and the price of alumina has rebounded. Recently, the environmental protection news of Shanxi has been frequently reported. The intersection of Lvliang area and Xiaoyi have been successively reported by the media about the dust and leakage of red mud reservoir. The red mud emission problem of alumina plants in Shanxi Province may face environmental protection inspection, which will cause the market to worry about the decline of alumina supply. Recently, some alumina factories in Shanxi Province have been ordered to suspend production due to environmental protection supervision. Two production lines of 2.8 million tons of alumina have been suspended due to the red mud problem. The remaining two production lines will be suspended in recent days. Xiaoyi Huaqing Aluminum Industry has been forced to suspend production due to the local environmental pollution of 450,000 tons of alumina. The price of alumina continued to rise. As of May 13, the average price of SMM alumina was 2,803 yuan per ton. As the price of alumina rises, the cost line of electrolytic aluminium continues to move up, which supports the price of electrolytic aluminium.

Increased decline in output

The data show that the total domestic production of electrolytic aluminium in the first four months is 11523,000 tons, a decrease of 1.42% compared with the same period last year. In the first four months of 2019, it continued to be affected by the loss reduction of electrolytic aluminium enterprises from June 2018 to February 2019, thus keeping the operating capacity scale relatively low. Since April, although some of the production capacity has gradually resumed, its contribution to the overall production in April is limited. At the end of April, the domestic capacity of electrolytic aluminium was 36.23 million tons, and the average start-up rate of the industry was 88.8%, which was 0.3 percentage points higher than that at the end of March. But after May, the contribution of re-production to production increased gradually. It is estimated that the output of electrolytic aluminium in May will be 3.025 million tons, a decrease of 1.56% compared with the same period last year, and the reduction of output growth rate will be narrowed. Under the steady consumption situation, the domestic stock level of electrolytic aluminium is expected to drop to 1.3 million tons by the end of May.

Generally speaking, in the short run, alumina production is affected by environmental protection in Shanxi, and the rising alumina price pushes up the cost line. At present, the overall profit of electrolytic aluminium has been repaired, which leads to the acceleration of resumption. However, the contribution of short-term output is limited, and the inventory declines rapidly in the peak consumption season. It is expected that the short-term aluminium price will continue to be strong. However, in the medium and long term, the new capacity of alumina is still at a high level during the year. The price of superimposed grid power is lowered, the new production and re-production capacity are increased, the supply pressure will gradually appear, and the price of aluminium is facing pressure.

On May 12, the fluorite commodity index was 100.44, unchanged from yesterday, down 21.22% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 104.10% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, the average domestic fluorite price is 2862.5 yuan/ton as of the 13th day. Recently, the domestic fluorite plant started normally, the mine and flotation plant started normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is normal, and the recent downstream commodity market is general. For the fluorite market purchasing on demand, the price trend of fluorite market fluctuates. In recent years, the downstream units have been operating poorly, the fluorite spot supply in the field is normal, and the downstream terminal receipt is not good, resulting in a temporary stable market price trend. As of the 13th day, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2700-3000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2700-3000 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2600-3000 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2800-3000 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite is temporarily stable.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite market is temporarily stable. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10 820 yuan/ton as of the 13th day. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant has declined, the demand for fluorite has weakened, and the price fluctuation of fluorite has been running. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price trend is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant plant surface starts at 60%, R22 market device start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-18,800 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the on-site transaction price does not change very much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal. The fluorite price has risen slightly. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the fluorite market price may remain stable.

First, the price trend:

Second, the market analysis: Domestic market: The market price of hydrogenation is higher this week, as of Friday, the mainstream quotation range of hydrogenated benzene market in Shandong area is 4150-4200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation range of hydrogenation in east China is 4400-4500 yuan/ton.

This week, the construction of hydrocracking enterprises gradually resumed, the construction rate in Shandong has been improved, some devices in Hebei region recently planned to stop short-term maintenance. Industrial chain: Crude oil: Oil prices overall wide concussion this week, multi-day change over 2%. Pure benzene aspect: this week pure benzene domestic fundamentals change little, the market to Yu Hengli will gradually mass production news has been digested, the impact on the mentality began to gradually reduce. Midweek due to the decline of pure benzene in east China port, pure benzene market slightly improved, the overall market slightly upward trend of more than two quarters of foreign centralized maintenance, the expected supply will be reduced. And the United States, South Korea and Taiwan downstream installations are about to end, demand will be further improved, the market is expected to be more optimistic. Crude benzene aspect: this week crude benzene market offer mixed, the market mainstream price in 3200-3400 yuan/ton, the recent pure benzene external disk slightly rebound, the price of hydrogenation slightly increased, but the crude benzene market has a limited boost. As of Friday, Shandong region processing crude benzene quotation stable quotation range in 3200-3300 yuan/ton, Shanxi region processing with crude benzene price stable in 3200-3250 yuan/ton.

Inner Mongolia area processing with crude benzene quotation stable quotation in 3100 yuan/ton.

Third, the trend forecast: This month, Hydrogenation Enterprises will continue to drive, the supply of the field increased, but pure benzene port inventory is still increasing, manufacturers of high cargo blocked, the actual transaction is limited. It is expected that the market consolidation of hydrogenated benzene is the main.

First, the price trend

Domestic BDO Market stable operation, according to the business Community monitoring sample data show that as of May 6, the domestic BDO market average price reported 9064 yuan/ton.

Second, the market analysis Products: Domestic BDO Market stable operation. Pre-overhaul factory driving, the overall start of the load gradually improved, the industry more wait and see the market, the focus of the offer is stable, long about shipping mainly, the real single negotiation is light.

Under the cost pressure, some factories keep the price mentality, but the downstream demand continues to be depressed, the industry’s steady price intention is obvious. On the market side, the BDO market in north China is running steadily, downstream demand is light, the market just needs to pay, the implementation of the main, brokers to steady, follow suit shipping mainly. East China BDO market wait and see finishing, after the festival market news is light, middlemen offer cautious, downstream market enthusiasm in general, the spot supply of cash is sufficient, the trading atmosphere is light, the industry is more follow suit. South China BDO Market consolidation wait and see.

Downstream market enthusiasm is not high, the field inquiry atmosphere is light, the factory delivery of pre-orders mainly, the real single trading difficult to release. Industrial chain: Raw materials, methanol: Northwest Methanol market small shock, Inner Mongolia region, the main manufacturers have not quoted, some manufacturers in the inventory of high. Guanzhong area market Shock to 1980-2020 yuan/ton, factory shipments in general. It is expected that the methanol market in northwest China is mainly volatile or declining in the short term.

Calcium carbide: 51 holiday period, calcium carbide market continued to weaken, production enterprises to step up shipments, with the downstream PVC maintenance centralization, it is expected that in the short term the domestic calcium carbide market continued to reduce the main.

Third, the forecast of the aftermarket On the positive side, upstream calcium carbide cost support. On the negative side, downstream demand is light. At present, the domestic BDO spot supply increased, downstream long about the demand is OK, business society BDO analysts expect that in the short term domestic BDO market stable operation, specifically waiting for downstream demand information guidelines.