On April 28, the PX commodity index was 67.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.38% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 47.53% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Domestic market price trend of p-xylene fell sharply on the 29th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Created an aromatic hydrocarbon plant started one line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled and Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant put into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily. As the new plant put into operation, domestic market supply of p-xylene increased and p-xylene increased. Market prices have fallen sharply. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On April 26, the market of p-xylene in Asia rose by 2 US dollars/ton. The closing price was 930-932 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 949-951 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The low price of foreign units has a negative effect on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the price trend of p-xylene in the market declined sharply.

On April 26, the price of WTI crude oil in June fell to $63.30 per barrel, a decline of $1.91. Brent crude oil in July fell to $72.15 per barrel, a decline of $2.20. The price of crude oil declined, losing some cost support for the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price of paraxylene declined. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA price trend shocks 29 days, the average price of East China bid in the vicinity of 6750-6850 yuan/ton, as of 28 days domestic PTA start-up rate is about 78%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 91%, downstream production and sales rate maintained high, but PTA market price changes little, the PX market price is expected to be lower in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, DOP prices in East China fell this week, and overall DOP prices fell. As of April 26, the price of DOP in East China was 7950.00 yuan/ton, down 2.05% from 8116.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, and 6.93% from the same period last year. 总体DOP华东本周行情下跌。

II. Market Analysis

Product analysis

DOP market demand is general this week, but the plasticizer enterprises DOP equipment start-up rate remains high, the overall market supply and demand for the performance of market demand decline, while adequate supply, overall plasticizer DOP market difficult to maintain, the May Day holiday is imminent, downstream customers to carry out production stocks, in the short term demand has warmed up, DOP market is expected to stabilize before May 1.

Analysis of Industrial Chain

As can be seen from the chart above, octanol prices fell sharply this week, with octanol falling by 1.06% this week; phthalic anhydride prices fluctuated steadily, overall DOP costs fell, overall DOP prices fell, and DOP still has downward pressure in the future.

3. Future Market Forecast

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business association, believes that the current DOP market demand is general, plasticizer manufacturers DOP equipment start-up rate maintains a high level, sufficient supply, overall demand for DOP market is negative; raw material octanol prices and phthalic anhydride prices are stable, raw material prices are falling, DOP costs are falling, the market is negative; May 1st is a short-term holiday, downstream customers production stocks, short-term demand There is a slight rebound in the DOP market, good for DOP market, downstream plastic market has recently rebounded, to promote DOP, good for DOP market is mixed, future plasticizer DOP market showed a warming demand, but not enough to support the rise in DOP prices, DOP price volatility in the future maintained stability.

China’s domestic potassium chloride market is temporarily stable and weak. Spring fertilizer trade is in the end stage, just need to decline. Northeast China is gradually entering the end, market prices have fallen slightly, and the new single transaction center of gravity is low signal release.

The first arrival quotation of 60% Jing official national railway in domestic potassium salt lake is 2350 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of traders is 2220-2250 yuan/ton.

Domestic import 62% white potassium mainstream port price 2340-2380 yuan/ton, Russian red 2260-2280 yuan/ton, large particles 2430-2470 yuan/ton, the actual transaction is a single negotiation. New sources of frontier trade may be crossing the shore this week. 62% of the white potassium ports are priced at 2150-2180 yuan/ton. There are not many surplus sources of big grains in squid circles and the price is more than 2370 yuan/ton. However, the new orders are not active and small orders are dominant, and the early orders are still centralized.

On April 22, the fluorite commodity index was 98.77, down 0.35 points from yesterday, down 22.53% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 100.71% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable. The average domestic fluorite price is 2815 yuan/ton as of 23 days. Recently, the domestic fluorite plant has been operating normally, the mine and flotation plant have been operating normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is normal, and the recent downstream market is general. For the fluorite market, the price trend of fluorite market fluctuates. In recent years, the downstream units started poorly, the fluorite spot supply in the field was normal, and the downstream terminal receiving situation was not good, which led to a slight decline in market price trend. As of the 23rd, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2700-3000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2600-3000 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-3000 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2700-3000 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite remained volatile.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite is stable temporarily. As of 23 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10400 yuan/ton. The fluctuation of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a certain positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant has declined, the demand for fluorite has weakened, and the price of fluorite has oscillated. Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid products prices slightly lower. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-18,800 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal. Fluorite prices are stable temporarily. Business analyst Chen Ling believes that the fluorite market price may maintain a volatile trend.

On April 21, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 94.22, which was the same as yesterday. It was 32.91% lower than the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and 75.82% higher than the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly on the 22nd. Up to now, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10400 yuan/ton, and the domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot has declined. Recently, the market situation of hydrofluoric acid is general. Because of the high raw material fluorite, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers limit production and guarantee prices, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is small. The price has gone up. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 10,000-10,500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10,000-11,000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices rose slightly, spot supply decreased slightly, but demand was not actually good, hydrofluoric acid market prices rose.

Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid products prices rose slightly. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-18,800 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. The domestic market price trend of R134a is not good, the start-up rate of production enterprises remains low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Recently, due to the poor condition of goods, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is shaking.

Refrigerant on-site transactions are general, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is normal, but the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has decreased, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may rise slightly.

Price Trend

This week, the domestic ethanol market was mainly in a weak downward trend. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of domestic ethanol market was 5356 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 5333 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price of domestic ethanol market fell by 0.44% in the week, 2.91% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Alcohol market prices continued to decline this week. Parking start-up time of some small plants in Northeast China has not been determined yet. After the accumulation of stable production stocks in large enterprises, the quotation was lowered to stimulate shipment. The parking of ethyl acetate plant in Shandong Yankuang Mine in the lower reaches of Shandong Province continued, and the situation of alcohol extraction was less. Enterprises continuously lowered their quotations in order to seek shipment opportunities; The top-grade prices in Henan region declined slightly, and the prices in Sichuan region were higher than those in Henan Province. Source-to-price, part of Sichuan picks up goods from Henan, and Henan’s shipments are doing well this week; the parking situation of enterprises in eastern China is increasing, and there is no clear attitude about when to drive downstream. The downstream is basically in a light state. Driving enterprises are lowering their offer. Under the influence of cost pressure, one-time reduction of imports in South China is not large. Sources and shipments are in good condition, Guangxi enterprises’quotations remain weak, market transactions continue to explode at low prices, some parking enterprises watch the market more, driving time remains to be inspected, Ganhua plant starts this week, liquor enterprises in downstream areas basically maintain just need to purchase.

3. Future Market ForecastIndustry Chain: Corn: less than 30% of the grain available for sale at the grassroots level in China. With the decrease of the quantity of grain sources at the grassroots level, the purchase price of deep processing enterprises in production areas continues to be strong. China has begun to buy American corn in bulk and will arrive in Hong Kong later. At present, the domestic corn supply is sufficient, but the demand is obviously insufficient. Therefore, we believe that the trend of corn market in the first half of April will continue to be under pressure, and there will be an opportunity to rise after the second half of April. If grain auctions start in May, prices will weaken again. Ethyl acetate: This week, the domestic market of ethyl acetate is obviously weak. Affected by the parking overhaul of some factories, the overall start-up of domestic ethyl acetate plant has decreased, alleviating the market downturn trend, but the downstream demand has continued to weaken. Jiangsu and other areas in East China market are the most obvious, resulting in the poor digestion of market supply and the continuous accumulation of domestic social inventory.

The raw materials in Northeast China are also likely to decline under the impact of the import of American goods. Under the condition of normal plant production and continuous decrease of export volume, the possibility of continuous reduction of enterprise’s offer will not be excluded. Under the influence of cost and downstream two-way shortfall, some enterprises in East China choose to stop and shelter from the market and downstream ethyl acetate loading. In South China, some parking enterprises are in a high market sentiment and liquor demand is gradually entering the off-season. It is expected that there will be downward expectations under the active support of the shipment mentality of start-up enterprises. In summary, ethanol analysts from business associations predict that the domestic ethanol market may decline in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of April 16, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 17925 yuan/ton, and the overall market price range was sorted out.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Domestic aggregated MDI market price continued last week’s disadvantaged range collation, trading is still not good. This week, the company’s guided price is stable, limited supply, Wanhua continues to offer a discount; the company’s cost support is strong, the agent’s quotation is high, the profitable price is positive and low, but the follow-up is weak. It is expected that this week’s market fluctuation will dominate, waiting for digestion and consolidation downstream. With the large-scale expansion of factory maintenance in the future, the supply of manufacturers will be tight, and the low-price supply downstream will gradually digest, and the price will still have an upward trend.

On the market side, South China has aggregated the weak price of MDI. On-site quotation is confused, agent quotation is high, middleman actively delivers goods, and transaction is general. Eastern China Polymerized MDI Price Disadvantaged Arrangement. Trading in the market is weak, on-site quotations are chaotic, profitable offers are active, downstream inquiries are prudent purchasing. The price of aggregated MDI in North China is weak. On-the-spot buying is flat, the traders follow the market to deliver goods, negotiate the shortage of turnover, and short-term boost factors are scarce.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: East China pure benzene prices continue to oscillate pattern, including spot selling 4350-4400 yuan/ton, purchasing 4420 yuan/ton in April, selling 4450 yuan/ton. May buy 4470 yuan / ton, sell 4560 yuan / ton. Purchase in June is 4480-4500 yuan/ton and sale is 4750-4620 yuan/ton. The pressure of picking up goods in the port area is high and the center of gravity is weak. Aniline: Shandong Jinling Dongying factory parked and repaired on Friday, and when the price fell earlier, it stimulated downstream demand and released the inventory of aniline enterprises. Over the weekend, Jinling led the market. At present, the aniline Market is stable. Shandong mainstream negotiation price reference 5820 yuan/ton acceptance. East China market refers to 6000-6200 yuan/ton acceptance.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives Viewpoint: Business Cooperatives aggregate MDI analysts predict that this week aggregate MDI market range shocks mainly, waiting for downstream digestion and consolidation. With the large-scale expansion of factory maintenance in the future, manufacturers’supply is tight, downstream low-price supply gradually digestion, prices are still on the upward trend.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the overall price of xylene in China increased this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of xylene was 5 612 yuan per ton, while on Friday, the average price of xylene was 5 722 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 1.96%.

II. Analytical Review

1. Upstream: IEA said the pace of global crude oil demand may slow down. Russia said it had the ability to increase production to ease the supply contraction caused by geographical situation such as Venezuela. International oil prices rose steadily, with spot Brent between $70.82 and $71.585 per barrel. Crude oil outside high support, xylene prices all the way up.

2. FOB Korean toluene reference price also rose from $716 per ton at the beginning of the week to $723 per ton (closing on Friday). Since Tuesday, the price of xylene in Sinopec’s subsidiary has been raised by 100-200 yuan per ton.

3. Downstream: The inventory of xylene port has declined. The inventory of East China is about 89,000 tons. The market atmosphere has been cold since midweek, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, but the overall turnover is considerable.

3. Future Market Forecast

The Xylene Analyst of Business Society Chemical Branch thinks that in the near future, the Xylene plant of large factories has entered the overhaul period one after another, the output has decreased slightly, the international crude oil market is more ideal, while the Xylene market is more stable and the market turnover is good, so it is expected that the price of Xylene will be more stable in the near future.

The listing price of Sinopec’s enterprises has been raised in central China, while other areas are stable. Last night, international oil prices both fell, and yesterday the toluene market turnover was small, the atmosphere was cold, so today’s prices fell, the latest quotation is about 5400 yuan – 5450 / ton.

Price Trend

March 2019 # lead ingot Market fluctuated lower, the domestic market average price at the beginning of 17 550 yuan / ton, at the end of the month at 17012.50 yuan / ton, a decline of 3.06%.

II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: In March, Lunpb declined from around $2150 at the beginning of the month to over $2000 at the end of the month. The overall trend of the main lead contracts in Shanghai futures market turned to 1905, with a peak of 17850 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, but then declined rapidly. By the end of the month, it had fallen to 16700 yuan/ton. Affected by this, the monthly decline in the domestic spot market was 3.06%, and the mainstream market price at the end of the month was about 16950-17200 yuan/ton.

International market: This week, the US dollar continued to rise, returned to 97 points above, basic metals first suppressed and then recovered. Under the guidance of the tax reduction of VAT, domestic short positions were liquidated and left the market. Spot performance of various items was stronger than futures. The weekend price rebound recovered some of the decline in the week.

Supply and demand: Washington, March 6, 2008. The U.S. Department of Commerce released data showing lead exports of 5,626,577 kg in December, 13,199,617 kg in November and 47,275,078 kg in the whole year of 2018.

Data released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) on March 11 show that the global lead supply gap in January increased to 255,000 tons, compared with 16,000 tons in December last year.

Domestic events:

Ministry of Environment: Combining with the Central Environmental Protection Supervision, we should crack down on illegal collection and treatment of waste lead-acid batteries: On March 28, Qiu Qiwen, Director of the Department of Solid Waste and Chemicals of the Ministry of Ecological Environment, said at the release meeting that China has become the largest producer and consumer of lead-acid batteries in the world. In order to further improve the prevention and control of waste lead-acid battery pollution, the Ministry of Ecological Environment jointly issued the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Waste Lead-acid Battery Pollution, and carried out the pilot work of centralized collection and trans-regional transportation system for lead-acid battery manufacturers. At the same time, the illegal collection and disposal of waste lead-acid batteries will be severely cracked down on in combination with the central ecological environmental protection supervision and special actions for hazardous waste treatment. In addition, in conjunction with relevant departments such as the Ministry of Public Security, we will focus on cracking down on illegal collection and dismantling of waste lead-acid batteries and indigenous lead smelting.

Shandong Province establishes the environmental risk management and control system of lead-acid battery life cycle: In order to promote the clean production and pollution prevention technology progress of lead-acid battery manufacturers and recycled lead enterprises, establish and improve the lead-acid battery recycling system, standardize the collection, transfer and storage of waste lead-acid batteries, Shandong Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment has organized and compiled “Lead-acid battery life cycle pollution”. Technical Specification for Prevention and Control (hereinafter referred to as “Technical Specification”).

Lead-acid battery double giants’revenue grew last year, but their net profit increased and decreased. At present, low-speed electric vehicles such as electric bicycles and tricycles still mainly use lead-acid batteries because of the advantages of lead-acid batteries in safety and cost-effectiveness. Frost & Sullivan, an American consulting firm, predicted in its report that lead-acid battery sales in China’s electric bicycle market would maintain a compound annual growth rate of 5.4% between 2016 and 2021.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

The US dollar is still rebounding strongly in the data set of European and American economy in early next month. On April 1st, VAT in domestic market dropped to 13% and was officially implemented. With the coming Qingming Mini-long Holiday, consumer expectations once again become the focus of the market. Market sentiment has been boosted. It is expected that a rebound will continue, with lead as the main factor.