Price Trend

Market Analysis of Potassium Carbonate Products

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of potassium carbonate fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average tax-bearing price of the mainstream domestic light potassium carbonate factory was 6487.50 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the average tax-bearing price of the mainstream domestic light potassium carbonate factory was 6437.50 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.77%, and the current price fell by 6.87% compared with the previous year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week’s potassium carbonate Market Trading atmosphere is light, the actual volume is not much, the attitude of potassium carbonate manufacturers is empty, enthusiasm is not high, downstream procurement is mostly wait-and-see, maintaining just needed, while the plant start-up rate of manufacturers is at a low level, the overall inventory of low procurement market momentum is low, the domestic potassium carbonate Market fell. According to the statistics of business associations: in August, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate factory is about 6400-6800 yuan/ton (quotation only for reference). The quotation varies according to the purchasing situation.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium carbonate analysts believe that the market of potassium carbonate has fallen this week and entered September. The traditional peak season of “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten” has come. Potassium carbonate prices are still not improving. But potassium carbonate manufacturers are looking for changes. Later, driven by many factors, they mainly focus on whether the demand side has increased after the festival and the price of potassium carbonate. The market may pick up somewhat.

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Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of September 10, 2019, the domestic market price of n-propanol had stabilized after a slight decline. The latest monitoring data of domestic n-propanol price showed that on September 11, 2019, the average price of domestic n-propanol was around 10,800 yuan/ton, which was the same as that on September 10. Compared with September 1, it dropped by about 200 yuan/ton, or 1.82%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Since the beginning of September, the prices of n-propanol in the domestic market are different and the price difference is large, but the price fluctuation is not large. After a small number of distributors of n-propanol lowered their quotation at the beginning of this month, the domestic n-propanol has maintained a stable operation in general. On September 11, the price of n-propanol from scattered water storage in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai areas was 8900-9200 yuan/ton, Dalian, Taiwan. The barreled price ranges from 10,100 to 11,600 yuan/ton. The average price of barreled n-propanol in Taiwan is around 11,000 yuan per ton. Shandong Fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd., September 11, n-propanol (content (%): 99.5); grade: superior;) market quotation is 10500 yuan/ton, which is the same as September 10, and 300 yuan/ton lower than September 1; Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone Yexing Chemical Trading Co., Ltd., September 11, n-propanol (content (%): 99.5; grade: superior;) market quotation For 10,100 yuan/ton, the same as September 10, the same as September 1; Ningbo Haorui Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd., September 11, n-propanol (content (%): 99.5; grade: superior;) market quotation is 10,500 yuan/ton, the same as September 10, 300 yuan/ton lower than September 1; in view of the reservations of dealers on price, the price is not easy to monitor. Measurements may lead to specific negotiations or discrepancies, and there are differences in each region, with actual negotiations being the main one. The plant of Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. is running normally, and the price of n-propanol is 9200 yuan/ton (bulk water) for normal delivery.

Industry chain: Starting in early September, propylene oxide market fell first and then rose. On September 2nd, the average price of propylene oxide was around 10166.67 yuan/ton, the atmosphere of profit was strong in the field, the factory actively shipped, the new orders downstream were insufficient to follow up. On September 4th, the average price of propylene oxide was around 1100 yuan/ton, the price fell to a low level, the downstream purchasing volume increased, the stock was quickly digested, and the market of propylene oxide stopped falling and rebounded with the downstream polycondensation. The demand for ether is increasing gradually. On September 6, the average price of propylene oxide was around 10,200 yuan/ton. The factory stock is low and the market turnover is stable. As of September 11, propylene oxide Market as a whole remained stable and slightly increased. Currently, the cash delivery price of Wanhua Chemicals Shandong mainstream market is 10 300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from September 6. The cash delivery price in East China mainstream market is 10,600 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan per ton from September 6.

3. Future Market Forecast

According to the business association’s forecast, the price of n-propanol is expected to remain stable in late September, but considering the approaching National Day, the price of n-propanol is still likely to rise.

Price Trend

The domestic butadiene market has been rising slightly recently. As of September 10, the price of butadiene was 10 384 yuan/ton, up 4.53% annually and down 18.81% year-on-year, according to business association monitoring.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Domestic butadiene market is slightly up-going, downstream parts just need to replenish warehouses before the holidays, Panjin supply price increase transaction, driving the prices of other export manufacturers in the north to rise, coupled with the East China spot resources have not yet been significantly supplemented, the middleman offer followed the supplier and slightly increased. The delivery price of high-grade products in Shandong is about 10 500-10 550 yuan/ton, while that in East China is about 10 800-10 900 yuan/ton.

On the market side, the market of butadiene in Shandong area has been tidied up slightly, and the price of Northeast China has increased slightly, which has boosted the prices of other export manufacturers. Some of the lower reaches just need to replenish their warehouses before the festival, so as to jointly boost the market. The middleman delivers the high-quality products to the offer at around 1050-10550 yuan/ton for negotiation. Eastern China butadiene market is mainly a small upward consolidation, Northeast supply price increase transaction, and the region’s limited spot resources, just before the downstream Festival need to replenish the warehouse boost, middlemen offer a small upward push, high-quality goods delivered to the price of about 10,800-10,900 yuan/ton, single discussion.

Installation: Yangtze Petrochemical 220,000 tons/year plant, 3 Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, operates at low load with a small amount of export. Puyang Bluestar 50,000 tons/year extraction unit operates steadily and is exported normally.

3. Future Market Forecast

Short-term East China spot resource supplement is limited, some businessmen are cautious about the arrival of Iranian ships; due to the approaching holidays, downstream parts just need to enter the market for inquiries, spot transactions in the North improved, boosting the market slightly upward. Short-term market supply and demand fundamentals are not obviously under pressure. Business analysts predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market will continue to consolidate. They suggest that attention should be paid to supply changes and trading guidance.

On September 8, the fluorite commodity index was 104.17, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.29% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 111.68% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, domestic fluorite prices fluctuated at a low level, with an average price of 2968.75 yuan/ton as of 9 th. Recently, domestic fluorite plants started to operate normally, mines and flotation plants in the field started to operate normally, fluorite supply in the field was sufficient, and hydrofluoric acid prices in the downstream maintained a low level in the near future. For the fluorite market, purchasing on demand, fluorite went on the field. Goods are in poor condition and fluorite market prices are low and volatile. Recent downstream installation start-up situation is general, fluorite spot supply is normal, terminal downstream demand is not improving, resulting in a decline in market prices. As of September 9, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2800-3000 yuan/ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2800-3000 yuan/ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2800-3000 yuan/ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2800-3100 yuan/ton. The price trend of fluorite wet powder remained low.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite maintained a low trend. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10 370 yuan/ton as of the 9th day. The decline of the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a negative impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant is general. The demand for fluorite has weakened and the price of fluorite has decreased. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, downstream air-conditioning manufacturers’overhaul, the demand has only decreased but not increased, and the price of domestic large enterprises has fallen to 14,000-14,500 yuan per ton. The domestic market price of R134a has declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the market demand for refrigerants has decreased, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, businesses purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined but not increased, the fluorite market affected prices remain low.

Generally speaking, the downstream refrigerant industry is declining, and the supply of fluorite market is sufficient, and the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is not good. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, believes that the price of fluorite market may continue to decline.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the price trend of cryolite market was stable this week, and the average price of cryolite market was stable at about 6333.33 yuan/ton during the week, down 3.62% from the same period last year. The Cryolite Commodity Index on September 6 was 76.92, which was unchanged from yesterday. It was 24.00% lower than the cyclical peak of 101.21 points (2011-10-31), and 15.93% higher than the lowest point of 66.35 on September 05, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: Cryolite prices have been running steadily this week, and there is no obvious price adjustment for manufacturers. As of the 6th day, Zibo Kunyu industry and trade cryolite quoted 6500 yuan/ton; Changshu Hongjiafu Co., Ltd. cryolite quoted 7200 yuan/ton; Jiaozuo Minli industrial cryolite quoted 7000 yuan/ton; Zhengzhou Tianrui crystal technology cryolite quoted 6500 yuan/ton; Shandong Botao Group Co., Ltd. cryolite price 7000 yuan/ton, enterprise shipment smoothly, The deal is still acceptable.

Industry chain: This week, the price of fluorite in the upstream of cryolite slightly decreased. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic market was about 2981.25 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the average price of domestic market was about 2968.75 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.42%, an increase of 10.81% over the previous year. The price trend of fluorite in the upstream continued to decline, mainly due to the imbalance between domestic supply and demand. In recent years, the demand for fluorite in the downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant industries has declined. At the end of the peak season of the refrigerant industry, the market of fluorite on-site is poor. In addition, the operating rate of fluorite devices on-site remains high, but the downstream demand situation is general. Spot supply of fluorite is abundant, and the price of fluorite on-site has a downward trend. As for downstream electrolytic aluminium, the price trend of aluminium rose slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the price remained around 14310.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was about 14413.33 yuan/ton, with a 0.72% rise.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 35th week (9.2-9.6) of 2019, there were 31 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 8 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were butanone (13.06%), yellow phosphorus (11.51%) and mixed xylene (8.50%). There are 21 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are trichloromethane (-8.16%), lithium hydroxide (-6.14%) and lithium carbonate (-6.00%). This week’s average rise and fall was 0.61%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of cryolite products from business associations believe that the current multi-dimensional and stable quotations from cryolite manufacturers are the main ones. The equipment is running normally, the stock is sufficient, and the shipment is acceptable. The market of cryolite is expected to operate steadily in the later period, with specific attention to market demand.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the domestic PC market showed an upward trend in the first week of September. As of September 05, domestic producers and TRADERS’offer price for Bayer 2805 averaged about 1920.00 yuan/ton, up 1.23% from the beginning of the month.

II. Cause Analysis

In early September, bisphenol A in PC upstream began to enter the upstream channel as soon as it changed from last month’s weak market. The reason is that China began to impose anti-dumping duties on American phenol, which is an important raw material for direct upstream bisphenol A of PC. Influenced by the strong support of raw material cost, the domestic market of bisphenol A has shifted upward, and the willingness of merchants to bid has emerged. The downstream follow-up is limited, and the purchase, trading and just-in-demand strategy of factories is the main one. Businessmen speculate that the market still has room for growth. In the near future, domestic bisphenol A spot or will rise narrowly, which will strengthen the cost support of domestic PC. At present, the domestic market is gradually entering “nine gold and ten silver”, and the atmosphere of replenishment is growing. In addition, the supply of bisphenol A in the upstream tends to be tense, and the enthusiasm of the downstream factories to stock up slightly improved, but the downstream operators are still cautious and in a wait-and-see stage, taking the just-in-demand strategy as the main one. As of Thursday, the supply of low-priced PCs in China began to decrease, and some traders reacted to the warming of the trading atmosphere.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business PC analysts believe that in early September domestic PC upstream bisphenol A was boosted by the release of positive signals from raw materials, related to strengthening PC cost support. Downstream demand has improved slightly, and the purchase of stock is prudent. The domestic PC market is gradually entering a “golden nine silver ten” atmosphere, and the upstream raw material supply is tightening. It is expected that PC will continue to rise narrowly in the near future. It is suggested that close attention be paid to the domestic supply situation.

Price Trend

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been tidied up slightly. As of September 4, the price of butadiene was 10434 yuan/ton, rising by 12.59% annually and falling by 21.84% year-on-year, according to business association monitoring.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: The domestic butadiene market has risen slightly. Although the supplier’s price has not been significantly adjusted for the time being, some business offers are relatively firm, but the downstream inquiry intention is weak, and sporadic negotiations are mainly low-end. Fushun Petrochemical announced its export plan, together with a certain amount of other export manufacturers, the expected increase in market supply is obvious; however, the downstream rubber market is weak, some private enterprises parked, the supply and demand fundamentals weakened, and the business mentality is empty.

On the market side, the supply and demand of butadiene market in East China are weak. Although the spot resources are limited in the region, the downstream inquiry atmosphere is weak. The market atmosphere is cautious and bearish. The delivery price of high-grade products is tentatively referred to at around 10900-11000 yuan/ton, and they are discussed separately. The butadiene market in Shandong is weak, the spot resources in the region are relatively abundant, the prices of some export manufacturers are lower, and the downstream wait-and-see situation remains unchanged. The high-quality products of intermediaries are sent to the offer for reference of about 10400-10500 yuan/ton for discussion.

Installation: Yangtze Petrochemical 220,000 tons/year plant, 3 Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, operates at low load with a small amount of export. Puyang Bluestar 50,000 tons/year extraction unit operates steadily and is exported normally.

3. Future Market Forecast

Although the price in the north is slightly higher and slightly lower, the spot supply in the short-term East China market is tight, and there is no obvious expectation of expansion of the market supply. There is a certain consumption of domestic spot in the downstream. Business analysts expect that the short-term domestic butadiene market will be maintained and tidied up. They suggest that attention should be paid to the guidance of market turnover.

Price trends:

In August 2019, the crude benzol Market rose after stabilization. The ex-factory price in North China was 3716.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 3930 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 5.74%.

The crude benzol commodity index on August 31 was 61.54, unchanged from yesterday, down 53.32% from the cyclical peak of 131.84 points (2013-01-28), and up 56.79% from the lowest point of 39.25 on December 22, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: The crude benzol Market rose 5.74% monthly after this month’s turbulence, and the price entered a stable channel at the end of the month. Since August, the crude benzol market prices have fallen slightly, down by about 100 yuan/ton, mainly due to excessive pre-rise, increased downstream cost pressures, narrowed profit margin, and strong resistance to crude benzol’s high level. Ring. On the 20th or so, the positive factors of the market were released centrally, the external market of pure benzene rose continuously, and downstream profits such as hydrobenzene increased gradually, bringing benefits to the crude benzene market. As of Shandong and Shanxi, the prices of the main markets had risen to about 4100 yuan/ton and 500-550 yuan/ton per week. However, due to the lack of downstream support, hydrobenzene enterprises have more overhauls, limited demand for crude benzene, downstream maintenance just need to replenish, and insufficient market support. By the end of the month, the price of crude benzol in Shandong, Hebei and other places was relatively strong. The price of crude benzol in Shanxi and Henan decreased slightly. By the end of the month, the mainstream price in Shandong was around 4100 yuan/ton, while that in Shanxi was about 3950 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: Crude Oil: In August, crude oil shocks in Europe and the United States declined. Oil distribution fell 6.54% from the end of last month, while U.S. oil fell 3.91% from the end of last month. Bear: Mainly affected by trade disputes, market concerns about slowing economic growth, declining demand for crude oil intensified, and oil prices fell. Game with other positive factors, leading to this month’s international oil price shocks. Pure benzene: At the beginning of the month, the price of crude oil and external pure benzene continued to fall, which had a negative impact on the domestic market, and the downstream market was relatively weak, and the price of pure benzene fell. Affected by typhoon in the middle of the year, some installations in Shandong stopped, the supply decreased, and the price of pure benzene rebounded. Subsequently, due to the shortfall in the supply of pure benzene in the United States, the price of pure benzene in the U.S. dollar disk continued to rise, and the arbitrage window between the United States and South Korea remained open, supporting the domestic pure benzene market to improve.

3. Trend forecast:

With the National Day approaching in September, manufacturers are facing increasing pressure on environmental protection and cautious market mentality. In addition, domestic pure benzene stocks are relatively small, and Korean plant overhaul and European overhaul are not over yet. Global supply is tight, which boosts the market. The crude benzene industry chain is expected to rise slightly next week.

Price Trend

In August 2019, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China fluctuated and remained stable as a whole. In August, the average price of mainstream hydrochloric acid quotation in North China rose from 123.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 146.67 yuan/ton at the middle of the month, an increase of 18.92%, and then fell to 123.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month. On the whole, the hydrochloric acid Market in North China fluctuated in August and remained stable as a whole. On August 31, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 32.46.

II. Market Analysis

(1) Products:

This month, some manufacturers in the hydrochloric acid market quoted higher prices, but the overall continuation of the previous general market. Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid quotation is 100 yuan/ton, the quotation is temporarily stable; Dezhou Meihua hydrochloric acid quotation fell from 60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10 yuan/ton at the end of the month, the quotation fell by 50 yuan/ton, Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid quotation is 200 yuan/ton, the quotation is temporarily stable; Hengtai chemical hydrochloric acid quotation is 180 yuan/ton, the quotation is temporarily stable; Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid quotation is first from month. The initial 110 yuan/ton rose to 190 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, an increase of 80 yuan/ton, and then fell to 160 yuan/ton at the end of the month.

(2) Industrial chain:

The positive price consumption of liquid chlorine in the upstream market supports hydrochloric acid to some extent. The downstream dyes, calcium chloride and chloroethane still buy hydrochloric acid on demand in the early stage. The hydrochloric acid market as a whole is still weak. By-product acid shocks the market. The pressure of hydrochloric acid shipment is high. The quality of by-product hydrochloric acid produced by TDI, chloropropene, propylene oxide and methane chloride is relatively good. For the purpose of shipment, each manufacturer has the situation of inverted freight shipment. Overall, the difficulty of delivery of hydrochloric acid is still a major problem.

(3) Industry:

In August 2019, there were 37 commodities on the rise and fall list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5% accounted for 17.9% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (39.93%), acetic acid (20.90%) and butadiene (14.47%).

There are 39 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 15.5% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-27.58%), epichlorohydrin (-23.28%) and sulfur (-19.38%).

This month’s average rise and fall was 0.03%. Generally speaking, the market of chlor-alkali industry has not increased much, and the slight increase of chlor-alkali market has limited impact on the demand for hydrochloric acid.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Business analysts believe that the upstream liquid chlorine is good in the near future, but the downstream demand for rare earth and fuel is still general, and by-product acid shocks the market. Business analysts believe that the late hydrochloric acid market is still more vulnerable to consolidation.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the price of aniline rose in August as a whole compared with last month. At the beginning of this month, the price of aniline was 5570-5900 yuan/ton. At the end of this month, the price of aniline was 6000-6300 yuan/ton. The monthly increase was 7.7%. The highest price of this month appeared in July 22-24.

II. Analytical Review

1. Raw materials: At the beginning of the month, the price of crude oil and external pure benzene continued to fall, which had a negative impact on the domestic market, and the downstream market was relatively weak, with the price of pure benzene falling. Affected by typhoon in the middle of the year, some installations in Shandong stopped, the supply decreased, and the price of pure benzene rebounded. Subsequently, due to the shortfall in the supply of pure benzene in the United States, the price of pure benzene in the U.S. dollar disk continued to rise, and the arbitrage window between the United States and South Korea remained open, supporting the domestic pure benzene market to improve.

2. Products: Aniline cost support weakened at the beginning of the month, and downstream demand weakened, prices weakened, to 14 to reach the lowest price. On the 15th, it began to warm up along with the cost side. Affected by typhoon in mid-August, both upstream and downstream facilities were parked, aniline was also affected, and the supply was reduced. In the latter part of the year, Nanhua mainly prepared its cargo and reduced its external supply.

3. Downstream: In August, there were more production restrictions and weak demand, which limited the increase of aniline.

3. Future Market Forecast

1. Raw materials: At present, domestic pure benzene stock is relatively small, and Korean plant overhaul, European overhaul is not yet over, global supply is tight, boosting the market. Hearing that the current CFR China talks in September are still on the low side, it is expected that shipments will be limited throughout September. At present, the price difference between Sinopec and other domestic pure benzene enterprises is relatively small, and there is still an upward possibility.

2. Domestic market: Environmental protection supervision will continue until the end of October, the start-up load is still not high, and the limited demand for aniline will still restrict the growth rate of aniline.

Considering comprehensively, the cost support is strong, and the price of aniline has been on the strong side recently.