I. price trend

II. Market analysis

This week, the operation rate of Mannheim industry recovered. Some of the enterprises that had been shut down before resumed production, but the sales did not see a significant improvement. The inventory is still large, and the high-end products are still being gradually pulled down. At present, the factory price of 50% mainstream powder is about 2650-2700 yuan, that of 50% particles is about 2750-2800 yuan, and that of 52% fully water-soluble powder is about 2800 yuan. It is high in the South and low in the north, with large preferential space. At the same time, the price of potassium sulphate in Mannheim keeps decreasing, which also increases the pressure of potassium sulphate in water salt system.

III. future forecast

Potassium sulphate analysts believe that: this week, the upstream potassium chloride market slightly decreased, potassium sulphate prices are difficult to improve.

I. price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I product was 5200 yuan / ton on November 20 On November 20, the paraffin commodity index was 77.42, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.25% from 109.43 (2013-12-03), the highest point in the cycle, and up 21.25% from 63.85, the lowest point on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: at present, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4600-5300 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4500-5500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 5000 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Central China is 5000-5500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of grade I product of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 5000-5500 yuan / ton 。 The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 5000-5500 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of grade I chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is about 5000-5500 yuan / ton.

Crude oil: WTI futures rose $1.90 per barrel on Wednesday (November 20) at $57.11 in December 2019, and Brent futures rose $1.49 per barrel at $62.40 in January 2020. China’s SC crude oil futures fell 5.1 yuan to 447.6 yuan / barrel in 2001.

Industrial chain: the market of raw materials is basically stable in the near future. The upstream liquid wax market is running smoothly, and the mainstream manufacturers are shipping stably. The purchasing power of liquid chlorine market is weak, and the prices in some areas have been lowered, so it is difficult to improve in the future.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 11 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on November 20, 2019, among which the top three commodities are acrylic acid (2.31%), mixed xylene (1.83%) and hydrobenzene (1.61%). There are 10 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top three products were maleic anhydride (- 3.11%), epichlorohydrin (- 2.81%) and lithium carbonate (- 1.59%). The average increase and decrease of this day is 0.01%.

III. future forecast

According to the chlorinated paraffin analyst of business association, at present, the supply of domestic chlorinated paraffin Market exceeds the demand, the terminal follow-up is insufficient, and the demand of downstream customers is weak. Some manufacturers adjust prices sporadically, most of the prices tend to be stable, and the overall market has not changed significantly. It is expected that the chlorinated paraffin market will maintain stable operation in the later stage.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of Friday (November 15) of this week, the average market price of butanone was around 8966 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton, or 1.70% compared with Monday (November 11).

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic butanone market overall maintained stability and slightly pushed up. From the beginning of this week (November 11), the rising situation began to show. With the overall trend of the market, the confidence of the on-site operators increased. At present, the factory has insufficient inventory, the quotation has been raised, the spot resources are still limited, and the market has kept pace with the increase, mainly receiving pre-sale orders. The longest pre-sale reached the beginning of December. At present, by the end of this week On November 15, the overall operation of the market returned to stability, and the purchasing atmosphere fell. The butanone market in Jiangsu Province operated steadily. The reference price of the market was 8800-9000 yuan / ton in spot exchange; the butanone market in Ningbo operated steadily, and the price of the main factories in the market was heard to be 8800-9000 yuan / ton in spot exchange; the butanone market in South China operated steadily, and the reference price of the market was around 9100-9400 yuan / ton The butanone market in East China is running smoothly, with a reference price of 9100 yuan / ton; the butanone market in North China is running smoothly, with a reference price of 9000 yuan / ton; the butanone plant of Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Group (Lishu chemical) operates at a low load, with a good sales situation in the near future, with a large number of pre-sale orders, mainly order delivery at present, and the current factory price is around 9000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: this week, the mainstream transaction price of civil gas market is 3650-3700 yuan / ton. Today, the transaction is relatively smooth, and it is expected that the pressure of stability is not great in the later stage; the mainstream transaction price of carbon 4 after ether is 4150-4200 yuan / ton, the downstream alkylation transaction after ether is relatively light, and the raw material or stability is relatively weak.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, it is expected that the high level of domestic butanone market will continue in the short term under the condition of low load operation of butanone plant and insufficient inventory.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers fell from 2713.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2680.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.23%, down 6.10% year-on-year from the same period last year. Overall, carbide fell this week, with the carbide commodity index at 70.22 on November 15.

II. Trend analysis

(I) products:

The ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oveganeng’s price of calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2620 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this week; Shaanxi coal industry’s price of calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2520 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with the beginning of this week; Neimenggu Zhonglian’s price of calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2770 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with the beginning of this week; Ningxia Xingping’s price of calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2650 yuan / ton , compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation dropped 50 yuan / ton.

This weekend, the actual transaction price of carbide in Northwest China is about 2500-2700 yuan / ton: the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Shaanxi is about 2500-2600 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Ningxia is about 2600 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2700 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

(II) industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: the ex factory quotation of coke this week is temporarily stable, with the quotation of 1616.67 yuan / ton, down 36.85% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of raw materials in the upper reaches was lower and consolidated. Compared with last year, the price dropped a lot and the cost support was insufficient, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC factory price slightly increased this week. PVC price rose from 6670.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6742.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.09%, up 5.88% year on year. PVC market in the lower reaches rose slightly, and customers in the lower reaches were more active in purchasing calcium carbide. As a whole, PVC market rose this week, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

III. future forecast

After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The price of upstream raw materials fell slightly. Compared with last year, the price dropped a lot and the cost support was not enough. However, the PVC market in the downstream began to rise, and the enthusiasm of downstream customers for purchasing calcium carbide increased. The aftermarket forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest will rise in shock in late November.

I. price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business agency: as of November 18, according to the data of several sample quoted enterprises, the main quoted price in the market of n-propanol dealers is about 10600 yuan / ton, down by 1.8% compared with last Friday (November 15).

II. Market analysis

Product: last week, the market of n-propanol was stable in a narrow range, the overall trend of upstream ethylene market was stable and rising, and the cost support was relatively stable. Recently, the inventory of some manufacturers in Nanjing is normal, domestic bulk demand and supply are contracted, production and operation are normal, and the supply-demand relationship is generally in a relatively balanced state. The market sales of n-propanol industry is general. As a solvent, the demand of the factory is relatively stable, the trade between factories is more, and the sales through distributors is less. At present, the ex factory price of n-propanol in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai is 8900-9300 yuan / ton, and the normal operation of 60000 tons / year n-propanol plant in Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. today, the ex factory price of the plant is 9100 yuan / ton. On November 18, the quotation of domestic n-propanol dealers was lowered compared with that of last week, with an adjustment range of 200 yuan / ton. At present, the quotation of domestic n-propanol dealers is around 10100-11000 yuan / ton. In view of the dealers’ reservation on the price, the price is not easy to monitor, leading to specific negotiation conditions or differences, and there are differences in each region, and the actual negotiation is the main one.

Industrial chain: since last week, the overall trend of ethylene has been rising. Prices in the Asian ethylene market rose sharply. As of the end of last week, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $797-805 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $827-835 / ton. Prices in the European ethylene market fell slightly. As of the end of last week, the price in the European ethylene market was FD northwest Europe, which closed at $909-912 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe, which closed at $821-832 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region rose. As of the end of last week, the price was 435-447 USD / ton. Overall, the market of ethylene rose. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

III. future forecast

According to the prediction of the business agency, it is expected that the domestic n-propanol market will run smoothly and fluctuate in a narrow range in the near future. In the later stage, we need to pay more attention to the cost of raw materials and the supply of goods.

I. market price trend chart of polyformaldehyde

Price curve of POM

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of POM (96) in Shandong at the beginning of the week was 4783 yuan / ton, while the average price of POM at the end of the week was 4716 yuan / ton, down 1.39%.

II. Market analysis

Products: Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of POM. The ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4550 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton compared with last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4600 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton from last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of polyoxymethylene. The factory quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) is 5000 yuan / ton, which is stable. The demand for downstream resin and pesticide is general.

Industry chain: according to the price monitoring of the upstream methanol, the domestic methanol market continues to decline. As of November 12, the average price of the domestic methanol market is 2134 yuan / ton. Prices fell 10.79% month on month and 24.19% year on year.

III. future forecast

The price of raw material methanol is weak, and the polyoxymethylene analyst of the business association thinks that the price of polyoxymethylene may be mainly adjusted.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on November 13, the ex factory price of domestic refrigerant R134a slightly increased, which was 0.74% higher than the average ex factory price of the mainstream manufacturers on November 6, 22666.. 7 yuan / ton, and 22.16% lower than the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: the market price of R134a in refrigerant market has been at a low level in the near future, with the base close to the bottom and few transactions in the market. In the near future, due to the fact that the automobile refrigerant will start to enter the cycle of goods preparation, it just needs to improve, and some enterprises’ maintenance, the market supply will decrease, which will benefit the price of refrigerant. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid at the raw material end is slightly lower, and the delivery situation of manufacturers in the field is still not improved. In addition, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintains a high operating rate, and the domestic spot supply is sufficient. Some manufacturers continue to reduce the factory price, and the cost is negative in the face of refrigerant. As of November 13, the quotation of R134a of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. is 25500 yuan / ton, that of Quzhou Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 21000 yuan / ton, that of Zhejiang lengwang Technology Co., Ltd. is 22000 yuan / ton, that of Yuemei Chemical Co., Ltd. is 24000 yuan / ton, that of Longxun trade is 21000 yuan / ton, that of Yumei Chemical Co., Ltd. is 25000 yuan / ton, and that of blue planet is 25000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid at the raw material end is slightly lower, and the delivery situation of manufacturers in the field is still not improved. In addition, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintains a high operating rate, and the domestic spot supply is sufficient. Some manufacturers continue to reduce the factory price, and the cost is negative in the face of refrigerant.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 10 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on November 13, 2019, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three commodities are hydrochloric acid (19.18%), R22 (4.80%) and chloroform (3.81%) There are 18 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and one kind of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are epichlorohydrin (- 11.45%), urea (- 3.23%) and lithium carbonate (- 2.70%) The average price of this day is 0.06%.

III. future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of the business club: in the near future, due to the fact that the automobile refrigerant will start to enter the stock cycle and just need to improve, coupled with the maintenance of some enterprises, the market supply will be reduced, which is good for the refrigerant price to rise. It is expected that the R134a market will continue to rise slightly in the short term.

I. price trend

Recently, China’s domestic butadiene market has been weak. As of November 12, the price of butadiene was 8790 yuan / ton, down 23.98% on a month on month basis and 12.98% on a year-on-year basis, according to the monitoring of business club.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Products: the domestic butadiene market is weak, the downstream inquiry intention is low, the North just needs to support the market is limited, the price of the northern export manufacturers is lowered, dragging the market down. The delivery price of superior products in Shandong Province is 9400-9500 yuan / ton, and the price in East China is about 9500 yuan / ton. The weak market drags merchants’ mentality, and the actual order transaction is limited.

In terms of market, the butadiene market in Shandong Province has been in a downward trend. Prices of some manufacturers in the north have been lowered, and the offers of middlemen have been lowered. The price of superior products is about 9200-9300 yuan / ton. The downstream is still cautious, and some of them pay attention to the latest price guidance of suppliers in the afternoon. The inquiry atmosphere of butadiene market in East China is weak, and the middleman has no intention to lower the offer. The price of superior products is about 9400 yuan / ton, and the actual order is waiting to be seen. Affected by the atmosphere in the north, the downstream inquiry intention is in a low state.

In terms of units: Yangzi Petrochemical’s 220000 T / a unit, 3 × long-term shutdown; 1 × 120000 T / a unit and 2 × 120000 T / a unit are in normal operation; Zhenhai Refining and chemical’s 165000 T / a unit is in normal operation, mainly for mutual supply, with a small amount of export; Jiangsu silbang’s 100000 t / a oxidation and dehydrogenation unit is in normal operation, with supply contract. Inner Mongolia Jiutai 70000 T / a unit is in normal operation and the goods are exported normally.

III. future forecast

Butadiene external market continued to decline, and the trend of downstream product market was not good, and butadiene spot market was short of sustained support. With the price correction of some manufacturers, butadiene analysts of the business agency predicted that the short-term domestic butadiene market was not short of a small downward consolidation expectation. It is recommended to note the information of domestic manufacturers’ devices and price guidance.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of octanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of main octanol in Shandong fell from 7083.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7050.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.47%, down 26.33% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the octanol market fell slightly this week, with the octanol commodity index at 51.84 on November 8.

II. Market analysis

(I) products:

At present, the operating rate of domestic octanol plant is acceptable; Hualu Hengsheng’s 80000 T / a octanol plant is operating normally, and this week’s offer is firm; the annual capacity of Jiangsu Huachang Chemical octanol plant is 80000 tons, and there is no maintenance plan.

This week, the factory quotation of main octanol manufacturers in Shandong slightly fell: hualuhengsheng’s factory quotation of this week’s octanol is 7100 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Jianlan chemical’s quotation of this weekend’s octanol is 7000 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s quotation of this week’s octanol is 7050 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

(II) industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: propylene market rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 7265.77 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7323.08 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.79%, down 20.13% year on year. The price of raw materials in the upstream market rose slightly, which had a positive impact on the price of octanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

Downstream market situation: this week, DOP factory price is temporarily stable. DOP quoted 7433.33 yuan / ton, down 23.17% year on year. Downstream customers have general enthusiasm for octanol procurement, general demand for octanol, and low price consolidation of DOP has a negative impact on octanol market. The aftermarket operators mostly wait and see the trend of DOP.

III. future forecast

In mid November, Shandong octanol market trend or low consolidation. After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream propylene price rose slightly, and the cost support was strong, but the downstream DOP market was low and consolidated, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was general. At present, the octanol inventory in Shandong is low, and the delivery is tight. According to the octanol analysts of the business agency, in the middle of November, the octanol market in Shandong Province may be consolidated at a low level under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

I. price trend:

According to statistics, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week is temporarily stable. The weekend average price is 6800 yuan / ton, which is flat compared with the price at the beginning of the week of 6800 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decline of 34.62%.

II. Market analysis:

Products: this week, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable, the domestic PX operation rate is maintained at more than 70%, the operation of new 600000 ton Hongrun unit is stable, the operation of Huizhou refining and chemical unit is stable, the first line of Fuhai Chuang unit is started, the operation of Pengzhou petrochemical unit is stable, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit is normal, the operation of Jinling Petrochemical unit is stable, the operation of Qingdao Lidong unit is full load, Qilu Petrochemical equipment is stable The plant is stable in operation, with the Urumqi petrochemical plant operating at about 50%, Hengli petrochemical plant operating normally, the domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. This week, the operating rate of PX plant in Asia is more than 70%. The supply of PX in Asia is normal. The price of PX outside this week fluctuates. As of the weekend, the closing price of PX market in Asia is 767-769 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 787-789 US dollars / ton CFR China. Affected by the fluctuation of the original international oil price, the price of PX outside this week has little change. More than 50% of domestic products need to be imported, P X external closing price shocks to the domestic market to bring some support, the domestic PX market price trend is temporarily stable.

Industry chain: the domestic crude oil closing price is mainly volatile this week. As of the 7th, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price was $57.15/barrel, and Brent crude oil futures price was $62.29/barrel. Overall, the crude oil closing price rose slightly this week. According to the statistics published by the EIA, the U.S. crude oil inventory (excluding strategic oil reserves) ended on November 1 It is 7.9 million barrels higher than the previous week, and the total crude oil inventory in the United States is 446.8 million barrels, 3% higher than the five-year average. Crude oil price volatility has a certain cost support impact on the price of downstream petrochemical products, and PX market price trend is temporarily stable. This week, the price trend of PTA Market in the downstream slightly declined. As of the end of the week, the price trend of PX market in the East China PTA market was around 4800-4900 yuan, and the price trend of PX market in the upstream raw material was temporarily stable. In the near future, the starting load of PTA was about 91.5%. The restart of multiple units at the supply end was bad for PX market, and the terminal demand slightly changed, and the polyester starting remained stable. The starting load of downstream polyester is about 87%, and the starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 75%. The profit of the terminal weaving and texturing enterprises is not optimistic. The comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 75%, and the purchasing and stock up mood is general. The prices of polyester mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are mainly stable, the terminal demand is not significantly improved, and the market price trend of p-xylene is stable.

Industry: this week, the textile industry market trend remained volatile, the textile industry operating rate changed little, the crude oil price was mainly volatile, and the raw material PX market was temporarily stable.

3. Future forecast:

Chen Ling, an PX analyst at business club, thinks that the crude oil price range is fluctuating in the near future, but PTA market price is weak, the price of PX external market changes little, the operating rate of downstream textile industry remains high, the supply of domestic PX market is normal, and the PX market price is expected to maintain 6800 yuan / ton next week.