Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the price of aniline rose in August as a whole compared with last month. At the beginning of this month, the price of aniline was 5570-5900 yuan/ton. At the end of this month, the price of aniline was 6000-6300 yuan/ton. The monthly increase was 7.7%. The highest price of this month appeared in July 22-24.

II. Analytical Review

1. Raw materials: At the beginning of the month, the price of crude oil and external pure benzene continued to fall, which had a negative impact on the domestic market, and the downstream market was relatively weak, with the price of pure benzene falling. Affected by typhoon in the middle of the year, some installations in Shandong stopped, the supply decreased, and the price of pure benzene rebounded. Subsequently, due to the shortfall in the supply of pure benzene in the United States, the price of pure benzene in the U.S. dollar disk continued to rise, and the arbitrage window between the United States and South Korea remained open, supporting the domestic pure benzene market to improve.

2. Products: Aniline cost support weakened at the beginning of the month, and downstream demand weakened, prices weakened, to 14 to reach the lowest price. On the 15th, it began to warm up along with the cost side. Affected by typhoon in mid-August, both upstream and downstream facilities were parked, aniline was also affected, and the supply was reduced. In the latter part of the year, Nanhua mainly prepared its cargo and reduced its external supply.

3. Downstream: In August, there were more production restrictions and weak demand, which limited the increase of aniline.

3. Future Market Forecast

1. Raw materials: At present, domestic pure benzene stock is relatively small, and Korean plant overhaul, European overhaul is not yet over, global supply is tight, boosting the market. Hearing that the current CFR China talks in September are still on the low side, it is expected that shipments will be limited throughout September. At present, the price difference between Sinopec and other domestic pure benzene enterprises is relatively small, and there is still an upward possibility.

2. Domestic market: Environmental protection supervision will continue until the end of October, the start-up load is still not high, and the limited demand for aniline will still restrict the growth rate of aniline.

Considering comprehensively, the cost support is strong, and the price of aniline has been on the strong side recently.

Price trends:

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic PA6 market was weak in August, with prices falling. Traders’mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 for Sino-Viscose is about 13650.00 yuan/ton, which is 2.50% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

2. Analysis of influencing factors:

In August, the starting rate of caprolactam liquids in the upstream of PA66 has increased, the spot supply in the market has improved, and the support of supply and demand has weakened. In July, amide liquids market declined this month, while the spot turnover of caprolactam liquids in East China declined. Upstream product cyclohexanone shock adjustment, cost support weakened. The downstream slice Market is light, the profit of the aggregation plant is difficult, and the enthusiasm of raw material procurement is not high. At the end of the month, the spot supply tends to be balanced, the profit margin of the factory is narrowed, and the price of the merchants is mainly competitive. At present, the market of caprolactam is running steadily. The weakening of caprolactam weakens the support for the cost of PA6. The domestic spot supply of PA6 is relatively sufficient, and the follow-up improvement of downstream demand is limited to maintain the purchasing just needed. In the mid-term, the US news of the postponement of the release of China’s tariff policy was positive. Domestic business confidence improved and the decline of PA6 eased. However, high-price orders were still difficult to deliver, traders had greater resistance to shipment, and buyers and sellers were cautious in their operation.

3. Future market forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in August PA6 upstream caprolactam fell at the beginning of the month, weak and stable adjustment. The cost-side support for PA6 is weakened. Sino-US trade frictions release easing signals to boost business confidence, but PA6 downstream stock follow-up mood is general, demand has not improved, there is resistance to delivery. Spot supply of domestic PA6 is stable, and it is expected that PA6 will dominate in the near future.

On August 28, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 102.63, which was the same as yesterday. It was 13.33% lower than the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and 32.65% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Domestic ammonium nitrate market prices were temporarily stable on the 28th. Domestic ammonium nitrate plants were running smoothly and in the off-season of downstream demand. Ammonium nitrate manufacturers’shipments were general and downstream purchases were on demand. In addition, affected by environmental protection control, the downstream civil explosion industry in China was shut down a lot. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers had limited start-up and their prices maintained low on-site. Bit level. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream in Shaanxi was 190-2000 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 190-2000 yuan/ton, and in Hebei was 1850-1950 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, some downstream factories were forced to limit production or stop production and overhaul for environmental protection inspection. Demand for ammonium nitrate was at a low level, and the market price of ammonium nitrate went away. The situation is temporarily stable.

Recently, the price of nitric acid in domestic market has been weakly lowered. The price quoted by mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu is 1600 yuan/ton, and the quotation is stable. Anhui mainstream manufacturers quoted 1600 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan per ton from last week. Shandong manufacturers quote 1600 yuan/ton, the price is stable. Quotations from most manufacturers are stable, while those from a few manufacturers are declining. Nitric acid shipment situation is still poor, the low price trend of nitric acid has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate remains low; the domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream is volatile, the market performance is general, the market turnover is still acceptable, the market price of liquid ammonia is 3210 yuan/ton, and the upstream cost of liquid ammonia is lower. In addition, the inventory pressure of most manufacturers has increased compared with the previous period. Some plants have been restarted and local ammonia supply in the region has increased. Especially in Shanxi and North China, most manufacturers have sufficient supply of ammonia. The price quoted by manufacturers in North China is maintained in the range of 2900-3400 yuan/ton, in Northwest China in the range of 2500-2600 yuan/ton, and in liquid ammonia banks. The low price has a negative impact on the downstream ammonium nitrate market. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has increased. However, the price trend of liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable, and the market of ammonium nitrate is shaking at a low level due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market prices remain volatile, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the later period.

Price Trend

Potassium sulphate prices have remained stable this week, according to business community price monitoring.

II. Market Analysis

Potassium sulfate domestic sales of new single reduction, business owners depend on the volume of support, high temporary stability. In the late autumn, potassium chloride will be limited in the consumption area of fertilizer production. However, the demand for potassium sulfate is expected to decline, and the price center will be under pressure and the preferential space will be widened. The overall starting rate of potassium sulfate in China is about 60%. Mannheim’s factory is under the pressure of high-price potassium chloride, and the cost pressure is high. At present, the 50% powder ex-factory price is more than 2850-2900 yuan/ton. The 52% potassium sulfate content is slightly better, and the ex-factory price is more than 3000-3050 yuan/ton. In autumn, the demand for downstream compound fertilizers has been pushing forward slowly, but there is no obvious advantage.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium sulphate analysts of business associations believe that the domestic potassium sulphate market is expected to stabilize in the later period, with local fluctuations dominating.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the domestic adipic acid market has not changed much this week compared with last week. The quotations of dealers are mostly stable, and the range of increase and fall is controlled at 50-100 yuan/ton. By the end of the weekend, the quotation is generally between 8500 and 8650 yuan/ton.

II. Analytical Review

This week, adipic acid market tends to stabilize, the market continued last week’s weak market, there is still no improvement, the market performance is weak, the market atmosphere is slightly cold, distributors actively shipped mainly, adipic acid market rise and fall within 100 yuan, the market maintains a weak volatile pattern, the current downstream market wait-and-see mentality is relatively strong. Heavily, the transaction is slightly deadlocked, and there is room for business to concede profits. Social inventories are still under pressure, with shipments slightly lower than last week.

On the supply side, the market supply is stable, and the local performance is mainly excessive supply. For example, East China, and many distributors say that the inventory pressure is high, the start-up rate of the plant is high, the market inventory and the inventory of the manufacturer are rising. This week, distributors actively take goods, so there are also relatively low-cost supplies flooding the market. There is a certain bargaining space, the market price quotation and the stock price difference are still in stock. The quotations of distributors in North China, East China and South China have been adjusted to varying degrees. Most regions maintain a stable market.

In terms of demand, downstream demand is still weak, nylon 66 factories do not have centralized purchasing behavior, downstream start-up rate is still slightly insufficient, the start-up rate is basically around 50%, the upstream adipic acid did not form a strong boost, because the previous rebound basically depends on upstream pure benzol, cost-effective driving. In the passive follow-up, at present, the cost and profit are more than enough, the market gradually returns to rationality, and the market also enters the de-inventory cycle. According to the monitoring of business associations, the reference price of East China market is about 8500-8650 yuan/ton, while that of South China is generally between 8500-8700 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of adipic acid in Business Society Chemical Branch believe that the price performance is not satisfactory at present. The supply and demand of adipic acid are basically in a balanced pattern. Therefore, Business Society believes that adipic acid market may continue to maintain a narrow adjustment pattern in the short term.

Price data

According to the price monitoring of business associations, gasoline and diesel prices fell slightly this week. Domestic gasoline prices were 6,694 yuan/ton, down 0.88% from last week’s gasoline prices; domestic diesel prices were 6,519 yuan/ton, down 0.37% from last week’s diesel prices.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, international crude oil prices rose first and then fell, the overall slight rise, but since 24:00 on August 20, domestic gasoline and diesel prices were reduced by 210 yuan and 205 yuan per ton, respectively. In the early part of this week, the domestic oil product market was shrouded in the haze of price reduction and the recovery of refinery unit start-up rate suppressed the rise in oil product prices.

Industry Chain: API report earlier this week showed that crude oil stocks in the U.S. decreased by 3.454 million barrels last week and active drilling in July decreased by 17. The report data showed that crude oil was on the rise, but UBS lowered oil price expectations for six months and 12 months later, OPEC also lowered global crude oil demand growth expectations by 40,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million in 2019. Barrel/day, while worries about the global recession continue to rise. International crude oil prices rose first and then fell this week, while WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose slightly by 1.62% and 2.90% this week.

On the market side: In the early part of this week, with the continuous rise of crude oil and the tense situation of gasoline resources in eastern and southern China, downstream suppliers actively replenished, and the main units pushed up the price of gasoline. As for diesel oil, with the price of diesel oil gradually rising to a relatively high level in the near future, the industry’s wait-and-see mood gradually rises, and the shipment situation of refineries gradually weakens. Earlier affected by typhoon, Eastern China and Shandong provincial refineries have been reworked one after another, which has suppressed the domestic oil product market.

3. Future Market Forecast

Lu Xingjun, a product oil analyst at Business Association, believes that the international crude oil market is on the rise, and the gasoline and diesel market is still confident of the demand growth brought about by the “gold, silver and ten”. The price of the product oil market is expected to rise steadily next week.

Recent fluctuations in the domestic rare earth market, since August, the rare earth market has shown a “reverse V” trend. In early August, the price of the rare earth market rebounded, but began to decline gradually in mid-August. As of No. 16, the price of some rare earth in China has risen slightly, which is affected by domestic policy and Sino-US trade war. The trend of the soil market is fluctuating. According to the Shangshu rare earth plate index, on August 18, the rare earth index was 370 points, down 63.00% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 36.53% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015.

As of August 18, the average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals in China was 386,500 yuan/ton, 2.3 million yuan/ton and 695,000 yuan/ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, praseodymium oxide and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 3.325 million yuan/ton, 1.94 million yuan/ton, 3.825 million yuan/ton and 3.345 million yuan/ton respectively. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 386,500 yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 193,000 yuan per ton.

After mid-August, the price trend of heavy rare earth dysprosium-terbium system is relatively stable, Myanmar still restricts the export of rare earth, the supply pattern of domestic heavy rare earth market has not changed, the domestic supply is still tense, the domestic price maintains a high level, and the recent domestic policy is still fermenting, bringing certain benefits to the domestic heavy rare earth market. Expect.

Since August, the price of light rare earth has changed frequently. In the first ten days of August, the price of praseodymium and neodymium products has risen by 4.5%. The price of neodymium oxide and praseodymium neodymium oxide has risen first. However, the downstream demand for light rare earth has not improved significantly. A small number of downstream merchants replenish their products on demand, and the actual transaction price is still at a low level. Looking forward to a strong mood, in mid-August the market prices of light rare earth have fallen, prices fell back to the beginning of August. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under strict environmental protection inspection, manufacturers control sales reasonably, but in the near future, they are greatly affected by external environment. They mainly benefit from the active distribution of new energy fields by mainstream automobile factories at home and abroad. The increasing number of new energy vehicles has brought some favorable support to the rare earth market. The price of domestic rare earth market has changed a lot, but in the near future, the market has changed a lot. Large conglomerates are also cautious about pricing their products.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. At the recent press conference on macroeconomic operation held by the Development and Reform Commission, Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), answering reporters’questions on rare earth, said that on the basis of in-depth investigation and scientific demonstration, relevant policies and measures would be put forward to give full play to the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news of the policy and the national reserve.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that in the near future, domestic environmental stringent inspection will not be reduced, coupled with domestic rectification of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar’s export restrictions and normal supply, but the recent rare earth market trading situation is general, focusing on national storage and Sino-US trade and other factors, the national policy has brought rare earth to a certain extent. Good support, rare earth market prices are expected to remain volatile.

On August 19, the PX commodity index was 56.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.31% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 22.94% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the market price trend of p-xylene in China was temporarily stable on the 19th. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Created Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started one line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On August 16, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 6 US dollars per ton. The closing price is 771-773 US dollars per ton FOB in Korea and 790-792 US dollars per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On August 16, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to 54.87 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.40 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil futures rose to 58.64 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.41 U.S. dollars. Crude oil prices rose, which had a positive impact on downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of xylene market was temporarily stable. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA price trend temporarily stabilized 19 days, the average price of East China in the vicinity of 5300-5400 yuan/ton self-raised, as of 16 days domestic PTA start-up rate is about 88%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 87%, downstream production and marketing rate has not changed much, but PTA market price trend is temporarily stable, the PX market price is expected to be later. Maintain shock.

First, the trend of the market:

According to statistics, the price trend of phthalic anhydride remained low, with the price at the end of the weekend at 5833.33 yuan/ton, down 15.66% from the same period last year. The main stream of phthalic anhydride negotiation in Jiangsu is 5700-6000 yuan/ton, and the spot supply in the market is normal. The naphthalene phthalic anhydride plant starts normally, and the current quotation is 5200-5400 yuan/ton. Even though the market price of phthalic anhydride has a short upward trend, it is like a flash in the pan, and the price keeps low all the time. Level.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has maintained a low level. The market of No. 14 has risen slightly due to the increase of orders from some factories. However, the rising trend of the market price of phthalic anhydride is relatively short. The market opening rate of phthalic anhydride in the field has been maintained at about 70%, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is sufficient, the downstream factories have just needed to purchase and the factory war Inventory situation is general, high-end transactions are blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbourhood source negotiation is 5600-6000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiation is 5200-5400 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5700-5800 yuan/ton, the market price changes little, the quotation trend of enterprises in North China is temporarily stable, downstream construction is not high, and purchasing on demand. Mainly, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant operation is stable, phthalic anhydride on-site goods generally, phthalic anhydride market prices have maintained a low level, phthalic anhydride market manufacturers have been in a loss stage, the recent loss price of 100-200 yuan/ton, while Nafa phthalic anhydride although there is profit space, but almost at the cost line. Nearby, the profit of phthalic anhydride market is difficult to improve.

Upstream: Recently, the execution price of phthalic anhydride upstream product, Sinopec o-phthalic acid, is 6000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is about 6000 yuan/ton. This week, the quotation of o-phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the port supply is general. The price of raw materials mixed xylene in the upstream of phthalic acid remained volatile, the turnover of phthalic acid was normal, the stock of phthalic acid in the port was low, the quotation of phthalic acid external market was temporarily stable, the actual transaction price of imported phthalic acid was discussed in detail, the upstream price trend remained stable, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market slightly declined.

Downstream: DOP prices have remained low in the recent downstream. The domestic DOP market price was 7266.67 yuan/ton by the end of the weekend. Recently, DOP external quotation has been adjusted concussively. Overall, the price of plasticizer DOP external quotation has remained stable, and the market interest of DOP is limited. The price of DOP in China is 915 US dollars/ton, which is stable compared with last month’s. The price of DOP in Southeast Asia is 1185 US dollars/ton, which is 15 US dollars/ton compared with last week’s. The DOP equipment of plasticizer enterprises has increased, the supply is stable, and DOP transactions are mostly at low prices. The overall price of DOP plasticizer is stable and declining slightly in the future market. Recently, in the DOP market of Zhejiang, the quotation of merchants is about 7350 yuan/ton, the downstream price is slightly lower, the demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is slightly lower.

Industry: Recent plasticizer industry market remains at a low level, terminal downstream demand has not changed much, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has slightly declined.

3. Future market forecast:

At present, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the upstream remains volatile, and the terminal demand is still off-season. At the same time, the measures of restricting production in some areas are in progress, combined with the trade war between China and the United States, and other factors, the demand side of the downstream refrigerant industry is difficult to improve. The phthalic anhydride market continues to be in a passive situation. Low volatility will be maintained with prices ranging from 5800 to 5900 yuan/ton.

Price trends:

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the external price of ethylene showed an upward trend on August 15. The average price of ethylene was $945.25/ton, up 2.12% from the previous day’s price of $836.75/ton, and down 2.15% from the previous year.

Market analysis:

Products: Ethylene showed an overall upward trend on August 15. Ethylene prices in Asia rose, with CFR closing at $957-965 per ton in Northeast Asia and $857-865 per ton in Southeast Asia. Upstream crude oil prices rose, European ethylene market prices for FD in Northwest Europe closed at $1021-1032 per ton, CIF in Northwest Europe closed at $925-936 per ton. The price of ethylene in the United States rose, ranging from $368 to $381 per ton. Overall, the price of crude oil in the upstream rose sharply, which helped to support the rise of the whole ethylene market, and the market atmosphere was strong. Businessmen pay more attention to the situation of supply and demand after the festival.

International: On August 13, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose to $57.10 per barrel, or $2.17. Brent crude oil futures rose to $61.30 per barrel, or $2.73. The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office said Wednesday that the Trump Administration will postpone the 10% tariff on some Chinese imports to the United States. Market fears about the trade war between China and the United States have eased. International crude oil closing rose sharply. WTI crude oil in the United States reached a two-week high, and Brent crude oil recorded the largest percentage increase in the year. The price of crude oil has risen, while the cost of ethylene has improved. The price of downstream styrene has rebounded slightly and the price of ethylene glycol has consolidated, which also supports the price of ethylene.

3. Future market forecast:

Ethylene analysts from Business Society Chemical Branch believe that crude oil is still in a burning market atmosphere. Macro-level economic worries will continue to plague the market. Overlapping the unresolved problems of Iran in the Middle East, the current factors affecting the crude oil market are still multi-empty and complex. Cost may support the ethylene market, and business community data analysts expect ethylene prices to remain narrowly volatile next.