This week, the price of isooctyl acrylate increased significantly, and the rise in the isooctyl acrylate market was mainly affected by the rise in raw materials. During the week, the price of raw material octanol increased, and the cost of isooctyl acrylate manufacturers increased, leading to stronger market support. However, the traditional off-season terminal downstream transmission speed is still slow, and as of this Friday, the market reference price is around 13425 yuan/ton.

Overall, the cost side octanol market price of isooctyl acrylate has increased, and there is currently no significant improvement in demand. Business Society’s isooctyl acrylate analyst predicts that the market for isooctyl acrylate will mainly fluctuate and consolidate next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride remained stable in December, with potassium chloride prices around 3080.00 yuan/ton. On December 28th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 97.78, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 44.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 67.86% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-03-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have remained stable this month. The monthly terminal price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is around 2860 yuan/ton; At the end of the month, 62% of the port’s white potassium was around 2800 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 150 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month; At the end of the month, the self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port was around 2900-3100 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 100 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month; At the end of the month, 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade was around 2700 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 150 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. There are approximately 3.1 to 3.2 million tons of potassium chloride stored in the port.

From the demand side, the market price of potassium carbonate has slightly declined this month, dropping from 7550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7510 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.53%. The end of month price has decreased by 17.47% compared to the same period last year. The factory price of potassium nitrate has slightly decreased this month, dropping from 5475 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5425 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.91%. The price at the end of the month has decreased by 8.44% compared to the same period last year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined. Agricultural demand is average, industrial demand is weakening, and downstream manufacturers are less proactive in purchasing potassium chloride.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to early January, the trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly and fall, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable, and the market situation is average. Downstream agricultural demand is average, industrial demand weakens, and the price of potassium chloride may fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for maleic anhydride continued to rise in December. As of December 30th, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 7860.00 yuan/ton (including tax), an increase of 10.70% from 7100.00 yuan/ton on December 1st.

In terms of supply: In early December, a local unit of maleic anhydride unexpectedly shut down, resulting in a tight supply of maleic anhydride; In addition, the northern rainy and snowy weather has hindered logistics, supporting the maleic anhydride market. In late December, the factory mainly executed preliminary orders, with tight spot prices. However, there was a strong wait-and-see sentiment downstream at the end of the month, and caution was exercised in chasing higher prices. As of December 30th, the factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 7700-7800 yuan/ton, and the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 7600-7700 yuan/ton.

Upstream aspect: The hydrogenation benzene market saw an overall upward trend in December. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China was 7066.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 7183.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.65%. In December, the pure benzene market followed the overall trend of crude oil, falling first and then rising. In the first half of the month, it continued to decline, and in the second half, it steadily rose and recovered the month’s decline, ultimately closing up 8.03%. Sinopec’s listed price first fell and then rose, with a cumulative increase of 50 yuan/ton. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene fluctuated, and by the end of the month, mainstream manufacturers in the main production areas were executing 7200 yuan/ton, indicating a strong overall operation of the industrial chain.

In December, the international crude oil market was volatile, while the naphtha market was volatile and downward. Recently, the market for n-butane was volatile and downward. As of December 30th, the price in Shandong was around 5100-5200 yuan/ton.

Downstream: In December, the unsaturated resin market continued to rise due to the continuous rise in raw materials. However, towards the end of the year, downstream demand for resin was weak, and overall market trading was average, with cautious operations.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that currently, the upstream hydrogenation benzene market of maleic anhydride is rising, and the cost of maleic anhydride is supported; Downstream unsaturated resin transactions are limited, and the market often follows the trend of entering the market; At present, the prices of the main factories of maleic anhydride remain stable, with the execution of preliminary orders being the main focus. The price of maleic anhydride is high, and downstream purchasing sentiment is average. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate at high levels after the holiday.

Recently (12.18-12.28), the market situation of nitrile rubber has slightly improved. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 28th, the price of nitrile rubber was 14475 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35% from 14425 yuan/ton on December 18th, and the low point during the cycle was 14300 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, while the price of acrylonitrile has narrowed, leading to an increase in the cost center of nitrile rubber; The downstream gradually enters the low season in winter, with low inquiries and low market transactions. The market price of nitrile rubber has slightly increased in the short term due to the expected reduction in butadiene production.

Recently (12.18-12.28), the price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, while the price of acrylonitrile has weakened, resulting in a slight increase in the cost center of nitrile rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 28th, the price of butadiene was 8575 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.41% from 8058 yuan/ton on December 18th; As of December 28th, the price of acrylonitrile was 9812 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% from 9862 yuan/ton on December 18th.

Recently (from December 18th to December 28th), the construction of domestic nitrile rubber plants has been generally stable.

The production of downstream nitrile rubber hoses in China has remained stable at a low level of around 5.9%, while the production of rubber insulation foam has been around 6.3%. Be cautious about inquiries about nitrile rubber, with a slightly stagnant trading atmosphere on the exchange, resulting in a weakening of the nitrile rubber market.

Market forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that currently, nitrile rubber plants are operating normally with relatively sufficient supply and weak downstream inquiries. However, due to the impact of rising raw material prices, the cost of nitrile rubber has some support. Overall, it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will experience a narrow consolidation in the short term.

The price of aluminum fluoride fell in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 27th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 10575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.58% from the price of aluminum fluoride on December 1st, which was 11200 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have fallen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has decreased. In addition, the import of aluminum fluoride increased and the export decreased in November, leading to an increase in aluminum fluoride supply and a decrease in demand. As a result, the price of aluminum fluoride fell in December.

Reduced raw material costs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 27th, the price of fluorite was 3543.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.90% compared to the price of 3612.50 yuan/ton on November 27th. As of December 27th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 10683.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77% from the quoted price of 10766.67 yuan/ton on December 1st. The downstream demand for fluorite is sluggish, the fluorite market is weakening, and the price of fluorite is weak and falling. Downstream refrigerant manufacturers of hydrofluoric acid are operating at low loads, and downstream procurement of hydrofluoric acid is poor, resulting in a decrease in hydrofluoric acid prices. In addition, sulfuric acid prices have plummeted, raw material prices have fallen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has decreased.

In November, imports of aluminum fluoride increased and exports decreased

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of aluminum fluoride in November was 999000 kilograms, and the cumulative import volume of aluminum fluoride in 2023 was 1038629 kilograms, a significant increase of 345.55% compared to the import volume in 2022. The import volume of aluminum fluoride has increased significantly, coupled with an increase in domestic aluminum fluoride enterprises resuming work in December, the supply of domestic aluminum fluoride market has increased.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, the export volume of aluminum fluoride in November was 7779023 kilograms; The export volume decreased by 23.4% month on month compared to October; A year-on-year decrease of 12.0%. The export volume of aluminum fluoride has significantly decreased, and the domestic demand for aluminum fluoride has decreased, increasing the pressure on the price decline of aluminum fluoride.

Market Overview and Forecast

According to analysts from the Business Society’s aluminum fluoride industry, in terms of raw materials, the prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid fell in December, leading to a decrease in the cost of aluminum fluoride; In terms of supply, the import of aluminum fluoride increased in November, coupled with an increase in the resumption of work by aluminum fluoride enterprises in late November and early December, resulting in an increase in aluminum fluoride supply; In terms of demand, the export of aluminum fluoride has decreased, coupled with a significant decrease in the bidding and procurement prices of large factories at the beginning of the month, resulting in a decrease in demand for aluminum fluoride. In the future, costs will decrease, coupled with an increase in aluminum fluoride supply and a decrease in demand, and it is expected that aluminum fluoride prices will fluctuate and fall in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference average price of 55% powdered ammonium was 3500 yuan/ton on December 1st, and the reference average price of 55% powdered ammonium on December 26th was 3370 yuan/ton. The market price of ammonium phosphate fell by 3.71% this month.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference average price of 64% diammonium on December 1st was 4056 yuan/ton, and on December 26th, the reference average price of 64% diammonium was 4040 yuan/ton. The market price of diammonium phosphate fell by 0.41% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium phosphate is weak and has fallen this month. In the first half of December, the price of ammonium phosphate stabilized and stabilized. The prices of raw materials fluctuate, and there is still support on the cost side. The market inquiries for ammonium phosphate decreased, and trading weakened. The factory’s pending orders are the main focus, and the market is steadily consolidating and operating. The purchasing atmosphere in the diammonium phosphate market has weakened, but the supply of goods remains tight, with manufacturers and distributors mainly offering high prices. In the second half of December, the focus of ammonium phosphate transactions declined. Downstream demand is weak, market inquiries have decreased, new transactions are limited, and many ammonium phosphate manufacturers have suspended their quotations. Although there is support from pending orders, as the volume of pending orders decreases, the later support gradually weakens. As of December 26th, the factory price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is around 3300-3400 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 55 powder ammonium in Henan region is around 3300-3400 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The market quotation for 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3920-4100 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. This month, the overall domestic phosphate ore market showed a slight weak decline and then remained stable and consolidated. At the beginning of the month, the domestic phosphate ore market remained stable overall, and the supply and demand news on the market was relatively calm. As the mid month stage approaches, downstream demand for phosphate ore has weakened, and some regions have a mediocre shipping pace. In the early stage, mining companies have lowered the prices of mid to high end grade phosphate ore by a narrow margin, while the price of 30% grade phosphate ore has decreased by about 20-30 yuan/ton. The price difference between high and low prices on site has narrowed. At the end of the month, due to the overall tight supply of mid to high end grade phosphate ore, although downstream demand is weak, the phosphate ore market still shows a stable operation after a slight decline. As of December 26th, the domestic phosphate ore market price is based on around 1020-1080 yuan/ton.

The raw material sulfur market saw domestic sulfur prices rise first and then fall this month. In the first half of this month, domestic sulfur prices increased. The sulfur refinery unit is operating normally, the market supply of goods is stable, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and manufacturers are shipping smoothly. In the later part of this month, sulfur prices in East China fell, and terminal winter storage demand slowed down, with downstream demand being the main focus. Some companies have poor shipments and have lowered their quotes based on their own inventory situation. Towards the end of the month, sulfur prices rebounded and rose. As of December 26th, the reference price for domestic sulfur market is 1096.67 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s ammonium phosphate analyst believes that the price trend of ammonium phosphate has been weak and declining recently. The demand in the winter storage market is poor, with weak market transactions and relatively low trading volume for new orders. At present, there is no favorable situation in the market, and it is expected that the short-term price of ammonium phosphate will continue to be weak and downward.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of chlorinated paraffin has fallen this month. On December 1st, the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5533 yuan/ton. On December 25th, the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5433 yuan/ton. This month, the price of chlorinated paraffin decreased by 1.81%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic price of chlorinated paraffin slightly decreased in December. In early December, the price of chlorinated paraffin decreased. The prices of raw material liquid wax and liquid chlorine have been lowered, resulting in insufficient cost support. Downstream demand procurement, there is no significant improvement on the demand side. Manufacturers and distributors are mainly observing and adjusting prices flexibly according to costs. In mid to late December, the price of chlorinated paraffin remained stable. The prices of raw materials fluctuate, with market fluctuations and average cost support. Downstream on-demand procurement, limited market trading, and manufacturers and distributors mainly observe and stabilize prices. As of December 25th, the ex factory price of 52 environmentally friendly chlorinated paraffins in Anhui region is around 5600 yuan/ton, and the national standard market price of 52 chlorinated paraffins in Shandong region is around 5100-5400 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly ups and downs from September 25, 2023 to December 18, 2023, it can be seen that the domestic chlorinated paraffin cycle saw mixed ups and downs. There was a significant decline in December, with the largest decline of -1.81% in the week of December 4th.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax has fluctuated this month, fluctuating with fluctuations in the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has fluctuated and fallen this month. The market trading atmosphere is weak, and manufacturers are flexible in adjusting prices and shipping.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyishe Chlorinated Paraffin, the market trend of raw material liquid wax has been improving recently, and the price of raw material liquid chlorine is weakening, resulting in a mix of rising and falling costs. Downstream demand performance is poor, with multi-dimensional support for essential procurement, average market trading, and stable pricing for enterprise shipments. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will stabilize and operate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 22, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21600.00 yuan/ton, which remained stable overall compared to the beginning of the month and increased by 16.76% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 22, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 27666.67 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the beginning of the month and increased by 12.93% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic price of trichloromethane slightly increased, with a 2.5% increase during the week. The overall price of hydrofluoric acid remained stable and the upstream raw materials stabilized. In addition, the quota surplus of domestic R22 enterprises reached the bottom, and enterprises continued to raise prices. The domestic R22 market price continued to remain stable and move forward this week.

This week, the overall domestic price of hydrofluoric acid remained stable, while upstream raw material prices remained stable. The domestic inventory of R134a was relatively low, and with the support of the sustained price support attitude of enterprises, the domestic R134a price continued to remain stable and move forward.

In terms of raw materials, the overall price of domestic hydrofluoric acid remains stable, which will support the continued stability of the domestic refrigerant market price.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society refrigerant analysts believe that raw material costs have stabilized, enterprise quotas have bottomed out, and market supply and demand are weak. In the short term, domestic refrigerant R22 and R134a market prices will continue to operate steadily.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the TDI price in East China fell first and then rose in mid December. On December 20th, the average market price in East China was 16700 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of 16700 yuan/ton on December 11th. The price increased by 0.40% compared to the beginning of the month.

The domestic TDI market has been fluctuating this cycle, with little price fluctuation. On the 11th, the market learned that the TDI devices of major factories in Xinjiang have restarted, and spot supply has increased. Business owners have a bearish mentality, and TDI quotations have been consolidated and declined; Afterwards, the market news remained quiet, with quiet trading on the exchange and stable trading by holders; On the 19th, the market learned that the restart of TDI devices in Shanghai’s major factories was delayed, causing the factories to close and temporarily not accept orders. The trading market showed an increasing intention to explore price increases, and the prices offered by holders slightly increased. Overall, demand is sluggish, supply side benefits are lacking, and the TDI market is weak and consolidating.

The upstream toluene price remains low, and the market situation is weak and volatile during the cycle. On December 20th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 6510 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the price of 6510 yuan/ton on December 11th. The international crude oil price fluctuates narrowly, with weak support for the cost of toluene. Downstream demand is in the off-season, market inquiries are weak, and support for toluene demand is weak. In addition, domestic toluene production continues to increase slightly and port inventory pressure continues, which has a negative impact on the supply side. The toluene market lacks support and the market trend is weak and consolidating.

In the future market analysis, TDI data analysts from Business Society believe that the mainstream devices on the market have not yet restarted, and TDI spot filling is slow. Holders are mainly supportive of the market, while downstream demand is sluggish, with a small amount of rigid demand procurement. Market trading is limited, and the negative impact on the demand side is more obvious. Currently, the market supply and demand are in a dilemma, causing TDI prices to fluctuate more. In the later stage, the TDI market may continue to remain stagnant and consolidate. Specific attention should be paid to downstream follow-up situations.

Price trend

In mid December, the domestic ABS market continued to experience weak consolidation, with spot prices of various brands fluctuating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 18th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11050.00 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -0.79% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: In mid December, the domestic ABS industry continued to bear the high load from the previous period, with an average operating rate of over 74% recently, which is relatively stable compared to the previous period. The production of the enterprise is stable, and inventory is steadily increasing. In addition, in the early stage, the new equipment and new goods of Ineos Benling continued to expand, leading to further filling of the on-site supply of goods. The company’s loss situation continues, with high supply pressure. The supply side’s drag on the spot market continues.

In terms of raw materials: In mid December, the trend of ABS upstream three materials was weak, with the acrylonitrile market basically stabilizing. Insufficient repair of raw material prices and average cost support for acrylonitrile; The main downstream construction is still stable, and the negative impact of the increase in load on the acrylonitrile unit has been exhausted. The on-site supply of goods has been tightened, and the on-site quotation is operating steadily.

In mid December, the domestic butadiene market experienced a significant decline. The main production enterprise Sinopec has significantly lowered its ex factory quotation, while the supply is relatively abundant. The main production enterprises in Northeast China are bidding to the outside world at lower prices, which has significantly dragged down the market atmosphere. The main downstream industries have not seen a significant improvement in production, and there is little positive news to boost demand in the short term. The domestic market price of butadiene has sharply declined.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the styrene market prices remained stagnant in mid December. The international oil prices are consolidating at a low level, with upward expectations. Due to its impact, pure benzene has seen a narrow increase, while the cost support for styrene has slightly increased. But the main downstream market is not good, and on exchange trading remains at the off-season level. Merchants are cautious in their quotations, and spot transactions of styrene are average, with limited expected increases.

In terms of demand: In recent times, downstream factories, including the home appliance industry, have shown a sustained lack of enthusiasm for stocking up on ABS’s main terminals. The main logic revolves around digesting existing inventory. Enterprises tend to maintain production in their procurement operations, making it difficult to increase demand. Mid stream traders have a heavy wait-and-see attitude and low willingness to purchase goods, resulting in weak demand and dragging down the spot market.

Future Market Forecast

In mid December, the overall performance of ABS upstream materials was poor, and the support for ABS cost was weak. The operation of petrochemical plants has generally maintained its early stage, with continuous increase in interval production and high supply pressure. The demand side consumption is poor, and merchants are often bearish about the future market. How much profit there is on the market, causing the price of ABS to be weak and difficult to improve. The main contradiction between supply and demand in the current market is expected to be difficult to ease in the short term, and the ABS market may have downward momentum. It is recommended to closely monitor the adjustment of supply side production capacity.