1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam on December 11th was 13112 yuan/ton, and on December 18th, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 13075 yuan/ton. This week, the price of caprolactam fell by 0.29%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of caprolactam has slightly increased after a decline. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, leading to increased cost support. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and procurement is relatively cautious. The supply side of caprolactam is gradually recovering, and market confidence is increasing. As of December 18th, the settlement price of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam this week is 13350 yuan/ton. It is a liquid premium product and will be accepted and self picked up in June.

The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On December 11th, the price of pure benzene was 6742 yuan/ton, and on December 18th, the price of pure benzene was 6837 yuan/ton, an increase from last week. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 6800 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions are synchronized).

This week, the downstream PA6 market stabilized and saw a narrow rise. The load of domestic polymerization plants is almost horizontal, and the inventory position remains low. The demand side is cautious in purchasing goods, and market trading tends towards the low-end. It is expected that the supply of goods in the future may increase due to new production facilities, and the PA6 market may continue to consolidate and operate in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that the market price of caprolactam has slightly increased recently. The raw material pure benzene market has started to recover, and the downstream PA6 market has risen, indicating a decent demand for raw materials. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will continue to improve in the short term.

Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart of para xylene, it can be seen that the price trend of para xylene has remained stable this week. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of para xylene was 8300 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 8300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 11.41%.

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical has restarted, but some units are still undergoing maintenance, and spot supply is normal. This week, the international crude oil price trend has fluctuated, and the external PX price has not changed much. As of the 14th, the closing price in Asia is 944-946 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 969-971 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene units in the Asian region is nearly 80%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region is normal. Recently, crude oil prices have fallen first and then increased, and the trend of crude oil is fluctuating. The domestic xylene market prices are temporarily stable.

In recent times, the international crude oil price trend has dropped first and then increased. As of the 14th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was reported at $71.58 per barrel; The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract is 76.61 yuan/barrel. The unexpected increase in CPI data and the rebound in inflation have lowered market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut at the beginning of next year; The crude oil market has shown a downward trend due to market concerns about oversupply. Previously, there was a oversold in the market, with the weakening of the US dollar driving up oil price valuations. Coupled with the International Energy Agency (IEA) raising its forecast for next year’s oil demand, the oil market was boosted. Overall, the crude oil price range fluctuated, and the domestic para xylene market prices remained weak.

The domestic PTA spot market has slightly declined, with an average price of 5657.5 yuan/ton in the East China market as of the weekend, a 1.52% decrease from the price of 5745 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. From the recent changes in PTA equipment, it can be seen that the PTA equipment has been operating relatively steadily this week, with an industry operating rate of around 86%. The downstream polyester production load is 87%, and cost support is weakening. The polyester filament market is cautious and cautious, with the consumption of early raw material stocking as the main focus, resulting in a stalemate in transaction focus. The trading atmosphere in the short fiber market is light, with many traders offering discounts on prices, and customers from yarn factories have limited orders and low purchasing willingness. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving has moderately decreased to around 75%, coupled with low profits from raw fabrics, it is expected that a small amount of raw materials will be purchased at a low price by the end of the month. The unfavorable downstream market is bearish for the xylene market, and the PX market trend is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society PX, believes that there is not much change in the domestic PX supply. The upstream crude oil market is a long short game, and overall, crude oil prices are mainly fluctuating in the range. In the early stages of downstream PTA maintenance equipment, new equipment is being restarted and put into operation. With the decrease in downstream polyester production load, the PTA market is under pressure, and it is expected that the terminal’s sustained replenishment may be difficult to sustain. It is expected that the price trend in the xylene market will remain stable in the later stage.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 14, 2023, the factory price reference for domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is 4150 yuan/ton. Compared with December 9 (reference price for dimethyl carbonate is 4200 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.19%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that this week (12.9-12.14), the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a downward trend. During the week, the overall performance of downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate remained average, and the overall operating rate on the supply side was low. Some factories in Shandong continued to undergo maintenance but have not yet started. At the beginning of the week, after the supply of dimethyl carbonate in some factories was slowly released, the supply pressure of factories was reduced, and the price of dimethyl carbonate was narrowly increased by about 50 yuan/ton. As the weekend approaches, the downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate remains weak, and the overall focus on the market has slightly declined. The price of dimethyl carbonate has been lowered by about 50-100 yuan/ton. As of December 14th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 3900-4300 yuan/ton, and the lower price is around 3800 yuan/ton.

Analysis of future market trends

At present, the trading atmosphere of domestic dimethyl carbonate on the exchange is relatively light, and the transmission of supply and demand on the exchange is still relatively slow. The mentality of the industry is average, and downstream stocking is cautious. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic light rare earth market prices have been continuously falling recently. On December 11th, the rare earth index was 470 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 53.33% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 73.43% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy have all declined, while the price of metallic praseodymium remains low; As of the 12th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 552500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 4.74%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 447500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 5.29%; The price of neodymium oxide was 457500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 5.18%; The price of neodymium metal is 582500 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 4.90%; The price of praseodymium metal is 600000 yuan/ton, and the weekly price trend is temporarily stable; The price of praseodymium oxide is 465000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decline of 4.12%.

The domestic light rare earth market has been in a continuous decline, with limited transactions and few new orders recently. The purchasing willingness of enterprises is low, and the overall decline in the market is difficult to change. Recently, some companies have lowered their negative guarantee prices, putting pressure on metal spot transactions. Downstream magnetic material companies have a sluggish purchasing willingness, mainly focusing on consuming inventory. In addition, the procurement of waste recycling is not active, the overall support of the market is insufficient, and pessimism has intensified, resulting in a sustained decline in rare earth market prices. Some small and medium-sized manufacturers are struggling to survive, with prices of praseodymium neodymium metal still hanging upside down, poor transaction performance, and sluggish purchasing sentiment, leading to a decline in prices in the domestic light rare earth market.

According to statistics, the production of new energy vehicles in November 2023 was 1.074 million units, with sales of 1.026 million units, a year-on-year increase of 39.2% and 30%. From January to November 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 8.426 million and 8.34 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 34.5% and 36.7%, and a market share of 30.8%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles still provides support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth exports in November were 4205.8 tons; The cumulative total export volume of rare earths from China from January to November was 48867.7 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The corresponding increase in export volume supported the prices of some products, but poor domestic demand led to a sustained decline in the light rare earth market.

Market forecast: In the near future, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises has been sluggish, and the situation of new orders is quiet. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will slightly decrease in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 7466.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7833.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 4.91%, and the weekend price increased by 26.01% year-on-year. On December 10th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 39.76, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 62.34% from the highest point in the cycle of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 32.01% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have seen a slight increase in their quotations this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 7105.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6968.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.94%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.27% over the weekend. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, and cost support has weakened. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market situation of new pentanediol has slightly declined, with the market price dropping from 9725.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9650.00 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.77%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.62% over the weekend. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

In mid to late December, the trend of isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and decline. The downstream market for new pentanediol has slightly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic market price of ortho phthalic anhydride has slightly declined this week. As of the weekend, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 7400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17% from the beginning of the week price of 7487.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.20%.

Supply side: The device operates stably and the supply of goods is normal

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a current operating rate of over 60%. The supply of phthalic anhydride goods is relatively sufficient, coupled with normal production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride goods. The price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride fluctuates at a low level, which has correspondingly impacted the neighboring phthalic anhydride market, causing a slight decline in the phthalic anhydride market.

Cost side: Low prices of ortho benzene, insufficient cost support

This week, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene remained low. As of the weekend, the price of ortho benzene was 7500 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the price of 7500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The supply of ortho benzene was normal, and the operation of on-site equipment was stable. This week, the crude oil price trend decreased, the mixed xylene price fell, and the raw material price fell. As a result, the domestic ortho benzene price remained low. The sluggish ortho benzene market brought a negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market, and the phthalic anhydride market price trend slightly declined.

Demand side: DOP market focuses on on-demand procurement

The downstream DOP market price has slightly increased, with a price of 11808 yuan/ton as of the weekend, an increase of 3.13% compared to the price of 11450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Domestic DOP enterprises have maintained their operations, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises are still operating at a loss, with plasticizer manufacturers operating at low loads and downstream demand being weak. The mainstream DOP price is 11800-11900 yuan/ton, and the downstream plasticizer price trend has slightly increased. The overall demand has not improved, and the purchase of phthalic anhydride is average, The market price of phthalic anhydride remained weak this week.

In the future, the crude oil price range has been fluctuating recently, and the price trend of ortho xylene has slightly declined and remained stable. However, the downstream plasticizer market has recently fallen, and the price of phthalic anhydride has reached its bottom. It is expected that the market price trend of ortho xylene will be mainly volatile in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on December 1st was 5533 yuan/ton. On December 7th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5433 yuan/ton. This week, the price of chlorinated paraffin decreased by 1.81%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin has fallen this week. This week, the prices of raw material liquid wax and liquid chlorine have been lowered, resulting in insufficient cost support. At present, there is no significant improvement in the demand side of downstream procurement for essential needs. Manufacturers and distributors are mainly observing and adjusting prices flexibly. As of December 7th, the ex factory price of 52 environmentally friendly chlorinated paraffins in Anhui region is around 5600 yuan/ton, and the national standard market price of 52 chlorinated paraffins in Shandong region is around 5000-5500 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax has slightly decreased this week, and liquid wax fluctuates with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has dropped this week. At present, the device is operating normally, and on-site trading is still acceptable, with transaction negotiations being the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s chlorinated paraffin analyst believes that the market for chlorinated paraffin raw materials has stabilized recently, with downstream on-demand procurement, weak market demand, and limited trading. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will remain stable in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to changes in cost and demand.

Aluminum fluoride prices plummeted this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 5th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 11075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.12% from the price of aluminum fluoride at 11200 yuan/ton as of November 30th last month. From the end of November to early December, the resumption of work in aluminum fluoride enterprises increased, the supply of aluminum fluoride increased, and the bidding and procurement prices of large factories decreased. The ex factory prices of large aluminum fluoride factories such as polytetrafluoroethylene decreased by 500 yuan/ton. In addition, with the decrease in raw material prices, the cost of aluminum fluoride decreased, and the price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and fell this week.

Reduced raw material costs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 5th, the price of fluorite was 3612.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.36% compared to the price of 3700 yuan/ton on November 27th. As of December 5th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 10750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.30% from the quoted price of 11066.67 yuan/ton on November 27th. The downstream demand for fluorite is sluggish, the fluorite market is weakening, and the price of fluorite is weak and falling. Downstream refrigerant manufacturers of hydrofluoric acid are operating at low loads, and downstream procurement of hydrofluoric acid is poor. In addition, the export of hydrofluoric acid is weak, resulting in a decrease in hydrofluoric acid prices. The prices of raw materials have fallen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials has decreased.

Market Overview and Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society’s aluminum fluoride industry, prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have fluctuated and fallen, leading to a decrease in the cost of aluminum fluoride; At the beginning of the month, the bidding prices of large aluminum fluoride factories decreased, and the factory prices of aluminum fluoride enterprises such as polytetrafluoroethylene decreased by about 500 yuan/ton; As the stocking season approaches, the demand for aluminum fluoride has rebounded, but the number of aluminum fluoride resumption enterprises has increased, and the supply of aluminum fluoride has increased recently. In the future, there will be an oversupply of aluminum fluoride, and the purchasing prices of large factories will drop at the beginning of the month. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, from November 27th to December 4th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market dropped from 9425 yuan/ton to 9368 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% during the cycle, with a month on month decrease of 0.86% and a year-on-year increase of 0.74%. The raw material pure benzene has weakened and declined. Sinopec has lowered its listing to 7200 yuan/ton, with a weaker cost side. Downstream chemical fibers and solvents are purchased on demand, and the spot supply of cyclohexanone is not high. However, under the resistance of high price shipments, some companies have lowered their prices, and the transaction center of the cyclohexanone market has fallen.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The pure benzene market continues to decline, and inventory in East China ports continues to accumulate, making it difficult to provide positive support for market negotiations. As of December 4th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 6992.17 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is affected by negative factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is about 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to equipment maintenance. The weekly average operating load of cyclohexanone is 64.33%, which is+0.22% higher than last week. The weekly production is 89400 tons, which is+0.08 million tons compared to last week.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The market price of caprolactam has fallen, and the upstream pure benzene price has continued to decline. In addition, the cost is weak, and some caprolactam units have returned to normal. The tight supply situation has been alleviated, and the atmosphere in the caprolactam market has weakened. The demand side for cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.

According to future market forecasts, the raw material pure benzene is expected to experience weak fluctuations, with a lack of cost support. The spot supply and demand of cyclohexanone are both low. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market situation will be mainly wait-and-see consolidation.

This week (11.27-12.1), the domestic polycrystalline silicon market fell, with domestic supply prices slightly decreasing and imported supply sources also experiencing a certain degree of decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, polycrystalline silicon experienced a weekly decline of 2.44%. At present, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 55-65000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the devices affected by the accident in the early stage have now resumed operation, and with the release of new production capacity, mass production has been achieved. The domestic supply has significantly increased, and the slowdown in shipment speed has led to silicon material manufacturers starting to accumulate inventory. The weakening of bargaining power has forced silicon material manufacturers to lower prices for shipments.

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, the operating load of silicon wafer enterprises has decreased, mainly due to the backlog of inventory from manufacturers in the early stage, coupled with a slowdown in downstream procurement, the inventory level of silicon wafers has gradually decreased, and the pulling end has lowered its own operating rate to alleviate the situation of oversupply. So the price decline has slowed down this week. The mainstream transaction price of M10 single crystal silicon wafer is 2.30 yuan/piece; The current mainstream transaction price for G12 single crystal silicon wafers is 3.3 yuan per wafer.

From the perspective of terminal demand, the prices of battery cells and components continue to be inverted, and the quoted prices of battery cells remain unchanged. The demand for component installation has decreased, and the overall terminal demand remains stable.

Market forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that the demand increment in the silicon material market is insufficient in the near future, and the immediate need to continue to follow up. Coupled with expectations of increased supply, it is not ruled out that prices will continue to loosen and decline in the future.