According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 30th, the price of refined petroleum coke in the Shandong market was 1667.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.92% from November 23rd at 1772.50 yuan/ton.

Cost side: Rising crude oil market supported by rising cost of petroleum coke

The expectation of OPEC+crude oil production reduction in the near future has supported the continuous rise in crude oil market prices. As of the 29th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was $77.86 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.88 per barrel. On the one hand, OPEC+has the possibility of extending and deepening production cuts, mainly due to the organization’s concerns about weak global crude oil demand and member countries’ demands for high oil prices. Saudi Arabia may continue to implement additional production cuts, and the voluntary policy of reducing production by 1 million barrels per day may be extended until the second/third quarter of 2024. This news has boosted the crude oil market. On the other hand, US crude oil and gasoline inventories have decreased. As of the week ending November 24th, US crude oil inventories decreased by 817000 barrels, which to some extent supported international oil prices. Overall, supported by positive news recently, the crude oil market has shown an upward trend.

Supply side: Port inventory rising, pressure on refined petroleum coke shipments

Recently, ships importing petroleum coke have arrived at ports one after another, but domestic petroleum coke prices have continued to decline, sponge coke costs have been inverted, traders have a moderate shipping sentiment, and the overall inventory of petroleum coke in ports has increased. The price of ground refined petroleum coke fluctuates, with limited downstream demand and average hoarding enthusiasm. Refinery shipments are under pressure, and trading is light. Refineries adjust prices based on changes in their own indicators.

On the demand side, the reduction in production of metallic silicon and electrolytic aluminum is mainly due to the rigid demand for petroleum coke

As of November 23rd, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 407, with an overall start-up rate of 55.83%, a decrease of 6 furnaces compared to the previous month. The number of silicon metal furnaces continues to decrease, continuing to be less in the south and more in the north. The cost of electricity prices in the southwest has increased, and the profits of silicon plants have been compressed. It is expected that further production reduction will occur next week; A small increase in the opening of furnaces in the northwest partially compensates for the decrease in supply in the southwest, while the overall supply slightly decreases. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

Recently, the shipment of medium sulfur calcined coke has been average, with poor trading performance. The price of raw material petroleum coke continues to decline, and the downstream aluminum carbon and negative electrode markets have shown weak performance. They mainly purchase according to demand and maintain production, with limited support for calcined coke prices. In addition, the high inventory of medium sulfur calcined coke has led to an overall weak consolidation.

At present, the electrolytic aluminum market is declining, and as of November 30th, the price is 18643 yuan/ton. Electrolytic aluminum production enterprises mainly maintain stable production, with large operating capacity. In the southwest direction, Yunnan’s production reduction effect is gradually showing, and the output has significantly decreased. However, in terms of downstream demand, there is a seasonal weakening trend, but the possibility of a significant short-term weakening is not high. The overall market situation for aluminum carbon is weak, and the purchase of petroleum coke is maintained as a necessity.

Market forecast: Currently, the overall inventory of petroleum coke in the local refining market is high, coupled with weak downstream demand, and overall on-demand procurement is the main focus. But as the current price of locally refined petroleum coke continues to decline, downstream enterprises will replenish as needed, and it is expected that locally refined petroleum coke will be mainly consolidated in the near future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in November 2023, the domestic 1 # tin ingot market first rose and then fell, with an overall decline. The average price in the domestic market was 205260 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 196260 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 4.38%.

On November 28th, the base metal index was 1139 points, a decrease of 8 points from yesterday, a decrease of 29.52% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 77.41% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On November 28th, the tin commodity index was 98.87, a decrease of 3.52 points from yesterday, a decrease of 47.33% from the highest point in the cycle of 187.70 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 130.68% from the lowest point of 42.86 points on December 9th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The monthly K-bar chart shows significant fluctuations in tin prices. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin market has experienced more recent declines and less recent gains.

In November 2013, the tin ingot market first rose and then fell. In the first half of the month, Shanghai tin fluctuated upwards, while in the second half, it fell under pressure. The trend of London tin and spot markets basically followed the fluctuations of Shanghai tin. From the perspective of supply and demand, the overall operation of smelters is relatively high, and the supply of domestically produced tin ingots is relatively loose. According to customs data on imported tin ingots, the cumulative import volume from January to October 2023 was 23100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.57%. With the good profitability of imported tin ingots in China, the number of imported tin ingots in China has increased significantly recently. In October, the monthly import volume increased by 13.6% compared to the previous month, and the import volume continues to increase. Overall, the domestic supply of tin ingots is relatively loose. In terms of demand, the downstream terminal consumer market still performs weakly, and the overall expectation of solder demand is still weak. Most consumer terminals maintain a wait-and-see attitude, and have actively reduced inventory. The procurement of raw material tin ingots is in high demand, but with the decrease in market prices, downstream entry enthusiasm has increased, and some low-priced transactions have been made in the market, resulting in overall active trading. From a comprehensive perspective in the future market, there is sufficient supply of tin ingots and weak downstream demand. Domestic inventory is generally at a high level, and fundamental tin prices are under overall pressure. It is expected that the tin ingot market will continue to operate steadily with a weak trend in the future. In the near future, we will focus on the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on the market.

Related data:

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of tin ore sand and concentrate in China in October 2023 was 25299 tons, an increase of 85.59% year-on-year and 112.26% month on month.

According to data released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS), in September 2023, the global refined tin production was 31300 tons, the consumption was 31600 tons, and there was a supply shortage of 0300 tons. The global tin ore production in September 2023 was 27800 tons.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 1066 yuan/ton on November 1st, and 733 yuan/ton on November 28th. This month, the price of ammonium sulfate has dropped by 31.25%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate has dropped significantly this month. In the first half of November, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price slightly decreased. The market demand is weak, and downstream and dealer inquiries have decreased. The decrease in international market transaction prices has an impact on the domestic market. The industry operates cautiously, with a clear bearish sentiment. In the second half of November, the domestic bidding price for ammonium sulfate was significantly reduced. Market demand remains sluggish, with light trading. The export market of ammonium sulfate continues to weaken, coupled with the continuous decline in urea prices, which has a negative impact on the ammonium sulfate market. As of November 28th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Henan region is around 700 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 700-750 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from August 28, 2023 to November 20, 2023, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle has seen mixed ups and downs. There was a significant decline in November, with the largest decline being -17.79% in the week of November 20th.

The downstream compound fertilizer market has slightly increased this month, with narrow price adjustments. This month, the price of raw material urea rose first and then fell, and the price of raw material ammonium phosphate increased significantly, putting increased cost pressure. Compound fertilizer enterprises have a large amount of demand, and the market is mainly driven by high prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Shengyishe Ammonium Sulfate believe that the sulfuric acid market has been continuously declining in recent days. At present, downstream delivery capacity is weak, and market trading is scarce. The continuous weakness of the urea market, coupled with the downturn in foreign markets, makes it difficult for the domestic ammonium sulfate market to improve in the short term. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will continue to decline weakly in the short term.

Acetic anhydride prices fluctuated and fell in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 27th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5662.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.03% compared to the price of 5900 yuan/ton as of October 31st last month. The prices of raw materials have fluctuated and fallen, and acetic anhydride enterprises have resumed production. In November, the prices of acetic anhydride have fluctuated and fallen.

In early November, the operating load of domestic acetic anhydride manufacturers decreased, and some of Yankuang’s acetic anhydride equipment briefly shut down. The inventory of acetic anhydride manufacturers was insufficient, and the supply of acetic anhydride spot market decreased. In late November, domestic acetic anhydride manufacturers resumed production of equipment, increasing the operating load of acetic anhydride equipment. The spot market supply of acetic anhydride was sufficient, but the inventory of acetic anhydride manufacturers remained low, and downward pressure on acetic anhydride remained.

Acetic acid prices fell first and then rose in November

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid commodity market in Shengyishe, as of November 27th, the price of acetic acid was 3175 yuan/ton, which decreased and then increased compared to the 3250 yuan/ton price on October 31st of last month, with a decrease of 2.31%. Some acetic acid enterprises have started production and stopped production of equipment, while Guangxi acetic acid enterprises have started operating at low loads. Anhui acetic acid enterprises have restarted their facilities, coupled with low inventory levels among manufacturers, resulting in a decrease in acetic acid supply. However, downstream demand for acetic acid is flat, and acetic acid manufacturers have limited willingness to raise prices. The price of acetic acid has first fallen and then risen, and the cost support for acetic anhydride is weak.

Statistics on the export volume of acetic anhydride in October

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, the export volume of acetic anhydride in October was 724.5 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.44%. The cumulative export volume of acetic anhydride from January to October was 11951.5 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.73%. The increase in exports of acetic anhydride and the expected increase in domestic demand for acetic anhydride are favorable for the acetic anhydride market.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society Acetic Anhydride Data, some acetic acid companies shut down in November, resulting in a decrease in operating load and weak downstream demand. The supply and demand of acetic acid are both weak, and the price of acetic acid first fell and then rose. In the latter half of the year, some acetic acid companies restarted their facilities, and the supply of acetic acid resumed. The cost support for acetic anhydride still exists; After a brief shutdown of the acetic anhydride manufacturer’s operating load in November, the device restarted and the supply of acetic anhydride increased, resulting in significant downward pressure on acetic anhydride; The increase in exports has led to an increase in demand for acetic anhydride. In the future, cost support still exists, and the supply and demand of acetic anhydride have increased. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the NMP market continued to decline this week, with an average price of 13766 yuan/ton on November 20th and 13166 yuan/ton on November 24th, a decrease of 1.36%.

2、 Analysis and Review

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the NMP market continued to decline this week, with mainstream retail prices in the domestic electronic grade NMP market reaching 12500-135000 yuan/ton as of Friday. The BDO market on the raw material side has been consolidating at a low level, and the current price has dropped to a low level, with limited room for further decline. The recent consolidation operation has provided weak support for the NMP market. Insufficient follow-up on NMP demand side, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and a focus on just needs. The NMP factory on the production side remains stable, but due to the prolonged market downturn and weak price support mentality, the market focus has shifted downwards.

As of November 24th, the mainstream prices of NMP bulk water in different regions of China are as follows:

Region/ November 24th

East China region/ 13500-14000 yuan/ton

Central China region/ 12500-13000 yuan/ton

Southwest region/ 12500-135000 yuan/ton

Raw materials: The domestic BDO market has slightly increased. From November 20th to November 24th, the average price of domestic BDO increased from 9935 yuan/ton to 9942 yuan/ton, with a 0.07% increase during the cycle. The market situation is still weak, and the impact on NMP support is minimal.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to NMP analysts from Business Society, the downstream follow-up of NMP prices is slow, and production remains low. It is expected that the NMP market will continue to remain sluggish in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 7483.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7750.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.56%, and the weekend price increased by 22.37% year-on-year. On November 20th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 39.34, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 62.74% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 30.61% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have slightly increased their quotations this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 7203.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7198.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.07%. The weekend prices have dropped by 0.45% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, and cost support has weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, dropping from 10325.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10110.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.18%, and the weekend price has increased by 9.78% year-on-year. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late November may be mainly fluctuating and declining. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. The upstream propylene market has shown a downward trend over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene for the week from November 10 to November 17, 2023 increased by 0.99% to 6401.25 yuan/ton this weekend, compared to 6338.75 yuan/ton last weekend.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures plummeted on November 16th. The settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $72.90 per barrel, a decrease of $3.76 or 4.9%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 77.42 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 3.76 US dollars or 4.6%. The US crude oil inventory has significantly increased, and more importantly, weak economic data has exacerbated concerns about future demand. Business Society crude oil analysts believe that the current logic of crude oil trading is still a supply-demand game, and the pressure of tight supply has eased as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has not shown a worsening trend of expansion. At present, market attention is more focused on various economic data indicators, which will become a barometer of demand prospects. Recently, multiple data releases have shown that economic data from important regions in the West and Asia are biased towards weakness, which will further exacerbate bearish demand sentiment in the future. In the short term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices, but the market still needs to pay attention to OPEC policy trends, which will limit the downward space of oil prices.

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene and the listed price of Sinopec pure benzene will continue to be 7750 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7700 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7653 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7700 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On November 13th, the price of pure benzene was 7675 yuan/ton, and on Friday (November 17th), the price of pure benzene was 7750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.64% compared to last week and an increase of 11.25% compared to the same period last year.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times.

In terms of the industrial chain, the crude oil market rose first and then fell this week. The overall strength of the styrene market was boosted by the positive news, and the pure benzene market rose slightly next week. Downstream inquiries were relatively positive, and market trading was good. The hydrogenation benzene market has been on the rise this week, with overall market prices slightly increasing by 150-200 yuan/ton.

This week, the pure benzene market slightly increased, with Sinopec’s listed price continuing to reach 7750 yuan/ton. The hydrogenation benzene market has slightly increased, with a current price of 7800 to 7850 yuan/ton in East China, and an increase of 150 to 200 yuan/ton within the week. In terms of supply and demand, coking enterprises started slightly higher this week, but the overall operating rate fluctuated around 75%, and the supply of crude benzene has been relatively stable in the near future. In terms of demand, as the hydrogenation benzene enterprises undergoing preliminary maintenance continue to operate, the overall demand for crude benzene from downstream hydrogenation benzene enterprises is still good and the demand performance is good. Overall, the current overall strength of the industrial chain has boosted the prices of most commodities. However, with the recent increase in supply of pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene, the market is slightly under pressure. Over the weekend, crude oil weakened again, which has a certain impact on market sentiment. In the future, market bearishness is expected to emerge, and the pure benzene industrial chain is expected to be under pressure in the future, with the market operating steadily and weakly.

Zinc prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 17th, the zinc price was 21388 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.06% compared to the zinc price of 21618 yuan/ton on November 10th. The zinc mine in Russia has been on fire, and the supply of zinc in the market has tightened. Zinc prices briefly rose from the 14th to the 15th, but demand in the zinc market remains weak, and both supply and demand in the zinc market are weak. Zinc prices have fluctuated and fallen this week.

Sudden fire at a zinc mine in Russia

A sudden fire in the Ozernoye mining and processing complex in Russia is expected to delay production. The complex produces 600000 tons of zinc ore annually, and zinc prices have risen after the fire. Zinc mines are facing the impact of grade decline and continuous disturbance from accidents, as well as the fact that closure is gradually increasing, and have long faced the problem of insufficient ore growth. The zinc mine fire in Russia has raised concerns about a decrease in zinc mine supply.

London Zinc Ingot Inventory Doubles

On November 16th, LME zinc ingot inventory was 133200 tons, with an increase of 65075 tons, accounting for 95.52% of the increase. Zinc ingot inventory increased, and zinc prices fell 2.54% to $2574 per ton in London overnight trading. Due to the arrival of a large amount of metal in warehouses, the inventory of zinc ingots in London futures market warehouses has nearly doubled, and the zinc market still has an oversupply.

Cautious sentiment spread during the meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States

After a year, the two heads of state once again had face-to-face exchanges. However, during the meeting between the two heads of state, crude oil prices plummeted to a new low in April and the largest drop in January. Macromarket data was weak, market risks intensified, and the zinc market remained cautious. The market was under pressure, and the downward pressure on zinc prices increased.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the fire in Russia’s zinc mines has caused a brief rise in zinc prices, but the macro market is weak and the sustained rise in the zinc market lacks support. However, with a surge in zinc ingot inventory in London and the spread of market caution during the China US dollar summit, zinc prices have fluctuated and fallen. In the future, the China US dollar summit has released an important signal of stabilizing global expectations, which is beneficial for global economic development and is beneficial for the zinc market. Zinc prices may stabilize after a decline, but the weak supply and demand situation in the zinc market has not changed, and the support for zinc price increases is insufficient. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of November 14, 2023, the market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was referenced at 8100 yuan/ton, which was basically unchanged compared to early November. Compared with October 1 (propylene glycol reference price 8466), the price was reduced by 366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.33%.

Entering November, the domestic propylene glycol market price has been hovering at a low level, resulting in a stalemate in supply and demand, and limited price fluctuations in the propylene glycol market. In terms of demand, currently, downstream demand for propylene glycol continues to be weak, and it is difficult for the demand side to bring significant benefits to the market. Enquiries for propylene glycol on the market are light, and new orders are limited. In terms of cost, the raw material epoxy propane market is weak, and the support for propylene glycol on the cost side is weak. In terms of supply, currently, due to insufficient follow-up of downstream demand, some devices in the propylene glycol field have delayed start-up and are still in a shutdown and maintenance state. However, the overall supply in the field is still slightly sufficient, and some factories have tight spot inventory. Therefore, the willingness to continue reducing production is not strong. In addition, the propylene glycol market is currently at a low level, and factories mainly maintain stable quotations. As of November 14th, the domestic market price of propylene glycol is based on around 7900-8100 yuan/ton, while the higher price is based on around 8300 yuan/ton.

Analysis of the Future Market of Propylene Glycol

At present, the dimethyl carbonate market, which is co produced with propylene glycol, is also operating at a weak and low level. The comprehensive profit of propylene glycol is constantly decreasing, and the market is in a wait-and-see mood. The overall shipment of unsaturated resin factories downstream of the terminal is slow, and the transmission of propylene glycol to the terminal is slow. Currently, there are many bearish factors for propylene glycol, but due to the constraints of comprehensive profit, the market situation has limited room for further downward adjustment. In the short term, propylene glycol data analysts from Business Society believe that, The domestic propylene glycol market will mostly focus on weak adjustment and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in cost and supply and demand information.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of carbon black continued to decline in the second week of November. On November 13th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 10466 yuan/ton

Cost side: The price trend of coal tar has declined this week, with severe losses in downstream deep processing products. The operating rate of enterprises has significantly declined, and the market performance in various regions has differentiated. Some regions have already experienced a situation where the prices of coal tar and raw coal tar are inverted, and their willingness to purchase raw coal tar is relatively negative. There is a strong bearish atmosphere on the market. As of now, the domestic price of coal tar in the market is 4437 yuan/ton, and the trend of the coal tar market is relatively pessimistic. The support for the cost side of carbon black is weakened, and the price decline in the coal tar market is increasing. It is expected that the price of coal tar will be weak in the short term.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and the overall inventory of the carbon black industry is not high. Although the operating situation of carbon black enterprises has declined, their profits are still good, and they have a certain demand for coal tar oil.

In terms of terminals, the downstream tire and rubber industry’s domestic market demand is weak and flat, with a small amount of replenishment mainly for raw material carbon black. Affected by the market’s tendency to buy up rather than down, the acceptance of carbon black is relatively negative, and the market has a strong bearish atmosphere. Inquiries into the market are mainly focused on price suppression, while the demand side remains in high demand.

Overall, the current carbon black market is operating in a weak and volatile manner, with downstream tire companies maintaining just in demand for goods, and the raw material end continues to weaken with moderate support. The bearish factors on the market are dominant, and it is expected that the carbon black market will operate weakly in the short term. The future trend will focus on downstream demand.