The price of plasticizer DBP rose first and then fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 10th, the DBP price was 9537.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% compared to the DBP price of 9500 yuan/ton on November 1st; The DBP price increased by 0.53% compared to 9487.50 yuan/ton on November 3rd. The raw material n-butanol rebounded and rose, while the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell. The cost was mixed, and downstream demand remained weak. This week, the price of plasticizer DBP rose first and then fell.

The price of n-butanol rebounded and rose in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 10th, the price of n-butanol was 7700 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.12% compared to the price of 7466.67 yuan/ton on November 1st. In November, the n-butanol market experienced a slight rebound after a trough period. Downstream users’ small-scale stocking gave confidence to the n-butanol market. Subsequently, the overall n-butanol market continued to steadily decline, with some regions experiencing maintenance of n-butanol units and a decrease in n-butanol supply. In addition, the n-butanol market is currently operating at a relatively low level, with downstream markets seeking bargains to replenish goods and the demand side experiencing staged stocking. In November, n-butanol prices fluctuated and rose.

The market for raw material phthalic anhydride continued to decline in November

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of November 10th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 7525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.53% compared to the price of 7800 yuan/ton on November 1st. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate of about 60%. The supply of phthalic anhydride goods is sufficient, and the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride goods is normal. The price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has increased, impacting the neighboring phthalic anhydride market. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, and some phthalic anhydride manufacturers have reduced prices to promote sales, resulting in a continuous decline in the phthalic anhydride market.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in terms of raw materials, the prices of n-butanol fluctuate and rise, while the prices of phthalic anhydride continue to decline, and the cost of DBP raw materials is mixed; In terms of demand, the plastic market is weak and the demand for plasticizer DBP is weak. Overall, raw materials are mixed, with insufficient cost support for plasticizers. It is expected that DBP prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of yellow phosphorus in the domestic market has increased. Last Thursday, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 25960 yuan/ton, and this Thursday’s average price was 26493.33 yuan/ton. The price has increased by 2.05% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic yellow phosphorus market prices have risen this week. The overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus is still good, and due to the impact of power rationing policies in Yunnan, yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan have suspended their quotations. The yellow phosphorus market in Sichuan has shown an upward trend, with strong reluctance from enterprises to sell and prices rising. Downstream procurement is relatively cautious, with a wait-and-see attitude towards high priced sources. The purchasing enthusiasm is average, and the main focus is on just what is needed. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 26300-27000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the overall domestic phosphate ore market showed an upward trend this week. Last Thursday, the average price of phosphorus ore was 1024 yuan/ton, while this Thursday’s average price was 1046 yuan/ton. During the week, the price increased by 2.15%. At present, the supply in the phosphate ore field is still tight, downstream demand is stable, supply and demand transmission is smooth, and the overall market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is once again approaching high levels. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mostly operate in a stable, medium to strong manner.

In terms of coke, according to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the coke market in Shandong Port has slightly increased, with the quasi first level ex-warehouse price at around 2300-2350 yuan/ton and the first level ex-warehouse price at 2400-2450 yuan/ton. The atmosphere of the port market is acceptable, and the inventory of the two ports has slightly increased. The atmosphere of gathering at the port has improved compared to the previous period, and the market trading is slightly cold. The shipping cost remains temporarily stable, with 205 yuan/ton from Xiaoyi to Rizhao Port and 195 yuan/ton from Jiexiu to Rizhao Port as of the 9th.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the market price of phosphoric acid has slightly increased this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of phosphoric acid was 7140 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, it was 7160 yuan/ton. During the week, the price increased by 0.28%. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will remain stable in the short term, and we will be watching the trend of raw materials.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the current increase in upstream phosphate rock prices and a slight increase in the coke market provide strong cost support. Downstream demand is average, with primary demand being rigid and relatively resistant to high priced yellow phosphorus. Overall, it is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will remain stagnant and operate in the short term, with attention to changes in the news.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of domestic carbon black has slightly declined in November. On November 5th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 11033 yuan/ton

Cost side: The coal tar market prices have started to decline this week, with differentiated market performance across different regions. Downstream deep processing products suffer severe losses, with a significant decline in enterprise operating rates. The willingness to purchase raw coal tar is relatively negative, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods is average. As of now, the domestic price of coal tar in the market is 4750 yuan/ton. The trend of the coal tar market is relatively pessimistic, with weakened support for the cost side of carbon black. Although the operating situation of carbon black enterprises has declined, their profits are still good, and there is a certain demand for coal tar.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and currently the overall inventory of the carbon black industry is not high, resulting in a tight overall supply.

In terms of terminals, downstream tire companies have some raw material support this week, and their enthusiasm for purchasing goods is average. The domestic market demand for downstream tires and rubber industry is weak and flat, with a small amount of replenishment of raw material carbon black as the main focus. There is a strong bearish atmosphere in the market, with most inquiries entering the market mainly focused on price suppression, and the demand side still maintains strong demand.

Overall, the carbon black market is currently operating at a high level of volatility, with downstream tire companies maintaining just in need of goods, and the raw material end continues to weaken with moderate support. It is expected that the carbon black market will operate weakly in the short term, and future trends will focus on downstream demand.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of November 3, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was 7500 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7466 yuan/ton), the price increased by 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45%.

Looking back at October, the n-butanol market can be described as a “continuous decline”, with a decline of over 16% in October. In the first week of November, the decline in the n-butanol market has not stopped, and the focus of the n-butanol market in Shandong region continues to decline. On the 1st and 2nd, Shandong large factories successively lowered the price of n-butanol, with a reduction of 100-400 yuan/ton. On the 3rd, the market for n-butanol experienced a decline and then rebounded, with increased trading activity. The market price for n-butanol increased by a narrow range of about 50-100 yuan/ton. As of the 3rd, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 7400-7600 yuan/ton.

In terms of demand: On the first few days of the month, the main impact of the trend of the n-butanol market falling first and then rising is the release of the demand side, and the downstream is experiencing phased replenishment. The improvement in demand drives the market to recover and operate.

In terms of supply: Currently, the overall supply level of n-butanol on site is relatively stable, and there is little change in the adjustment of on-site construction compared to the previous period.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is mild, and the good downstream demand brings some confidence to the market. The phased stocking provides some positive support to the market. Therefore, the n-butanol data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market may steadily rebound and operate, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

The price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and fell in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 31, the price of DOTP was 11270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.93% compared to the price of 11610 yuan/ton on October 1. In October, the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell, while PTA prices rebounded after a sharp drop. The cost support for plasticizer DOTP was insufficient, and the price of DOTP fluctuated and fell in October.

PTA prices rebounded after a sharp drop in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PTA price on October 31st was 5915 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.81% compared to the price of 6213.64 yuan/ton on October 1st. The demand for “Silver Ten” is weak, the chemical fiber market is operating weakly, and the market trading atmosphere is average. PTA demand is poor, crude oil prices fluctuate and fall widely, PTA costs decrease, and PTA prices fluctuate and fall in October.

The price of isooctanol rose first and then fell in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on October 31st was 12120 yuan/ton, which increased and then decreased compared to the price of 12020 yuan/ton on October 1st, with an increase of 0.83%. The price of propylene fluctuated and fell, while the cost of isooctanol decreased. Downstream plasticizer companies did not start production enough, resulting in poor demand for isooctanol. In October, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell.

The plastic market fell in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, during the traditional peak season of “Jinjiu”, the plastic market is soaring. In October, it took on the high position of the “Golden Nine”, but the market for plastic futures products quickly cooled down and failed to continue the upward trend, resulting in a situation where the “Silver Ten” is not silver, and the plastic industry is dominated by bearish sentiment. Downstream plastic enterprises have low willingness to stock up, lagging consumption follow-up, and weak market momentum. Under the influence of declining consumption and cost fluctuations, the plastic market has seen a significant decline in plastic prices. The downstream plastic market is declining, and the demand for plasticizers is insufficient, increasing the downward pressure on plasticizer DOTP.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in October, PTA prices fluctuated and fell, while isooctanol prices first rose and then fell, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP decreased; The plastic market has declined, downstream customers have poor purchasing enthusiasm, and the demand for plasticizer DOTP is weak. Overall, due to insufficient cost support and weak demand, it is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the sulfur price trend in East China fell first and then rose in October, resulting in a weak market situation. On October 31st, the average ex factory price of sulfur in the East China region was 936.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.87% compared to the average ex factory price of 1016.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

After the holiday, the sulfur market in East China continued its trend in September, with prices continuously decreasing. The main reason is that the terminal autumn fertilizer use has entered the closing stage, downstream procurement has recovered smoothly, and the shipment of sulfur refineries is poor. In order to alleviate inventory pressure, manufacturers’ quotations have been continuously lowered, and the sulfur market has moved downwards; Starting from the 18th, downstream procurement will follow up on demand. Some refineries have smooth shipments, no inventory pressure, and sulfur prices have slightly increased. However, demand is limited, and the overall increase in sulfur is not significant.

The downstream sulfuric acid market fell significantly in October, with a market price of 306.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 258.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 15.69% within the month. The mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in China operate normally, with stable market supply and average downstream demand. The shipment of sulfuric acid enterprises is not smooth, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers increases. The price of sulfuric acid continues to decrease.

The market of monoammonium phosphate stabilized at a high level in October, with fertilizer usage gradually ending in the autumn and downstream demand weakening. However, monoammonium enterprises issued sufficient orders, manufacturers had a good mentality, and with cost support, the price of monoammonium continued to operate at a high level. As of October 31, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3150.00 yuan/ton, which was 3083.33 yuan/ton compared to the average price on October 1, with a price increase of 2.16%.

In the future market forecast, sulfur analysts from the Business Society believe that the sulfur enterprise’s equipment is operating normally, the supply of goods is stable, manufacturers are actively shipping, and there is currently no inventory pressure. The terminal winter storage market has not yet opened, and downstream customers are following up on demand. Market demand is limited. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the sulfur sulfur market will stagnate and consolidate in the future.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 30th, the price of DOP was 11275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.66% compared to the price of 11583.33 yuan/ton on October 1st. Insufficient support for raw material prices and weak demand remain, with DOP prices fluctuating and falling in October.

The price of isooctanol rose first and then fell in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on October 30th was 12120 yuan/ton, which increased and then decreased compared to the price of 12020 yuan/ton on October 1st, with an increase of 0.83%. The price of propylene fluctuated and fell, while the cost of isooctanol decreased. Downstream plasticizer companies did not start production enough, resulting in poor demand for isooctanol. In October, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 30th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8012.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.03% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on October 1st, which was 8712.50 yuan/ton. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable. Currently, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China remains over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has dropped, impacting the neighboring phthalic anhydride market. In October, downstream procurement enthusiasm was poor, and some phthalic anhydride manufacturers reduced prices to promote sales, resulting in a significant decline in the phthalic anhydride market.

The plastic market fell back in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the plastic industry was in the traditional peak season of the “Golden Nine” period last month, with a high market trend. In October, it took on the high position of the “Golden Nine”, but the market for plastic futures products quickly cooled down and failed to continue the upward trend, resulting in a situation where the “Silver Ten” is not silver, and the plastic industry is dominated by bearish sentiment. Downstream plastic enterprises have low willingness to stock up, lagging consumption follow-up, and weak market momentum. Under the influence of declining consumption and cost fluctuations, the plastic market has seen a significant decline in plastic prices. The downstream plastic market is declining, and the demand for plasticizers is insufficient, increasing the downward pressure on plasticizer DOP.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the raw material isooctanol fluctuates and consolidates, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuates and falls, and the cost of plasticizers decreases; The plastic market is declining, downstream customers have poor purchasing enthusiasm, and downstream demand for plasticizers is weak. Overall, the demand for plasticizer DOP is weak due to cost reduction, and there is insufficient support for its positive performance. The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuates and consolidates.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, at the beginning of the month, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7550.00 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7420.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.72%. The current price has decreased by 19.78% compared to last year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate fell in October. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has been declining for two consecutive months recently, and the market has continued to decline this month. The overall market of raw potassium chloride fluctuates at a low level, with poor cost support, poor downstream operating rates, and light trading volume in the potassium carbonate market, resulting in a continuous decline in the market. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate is around 7300-7500 yuan/ton recently (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the overall market for potassium chloride in October showed a trend of first falling and then rising. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with primary demand for procurement. The circulation of potassium chloride is tight, and the supply of goods at the port has slightly increased. Analysts from the Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term.

At present, the circulating supply of potassium chloride in the domestic market is limited, and there is an expectation of a rise in potassium chloride, with good cost support. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 26th, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8075.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22% compared to Monday’s price.

The epichlorohydrin market is mainly stable this week, with some companies adjusting their prices. Recently, the price of raw material glycerol has remained stable, while the market for raw material propylene has declined. Cost support is weak, and there is no pressure on supply side inventory to boost prices. Downstream follow-up is still cautious, with small purchases mainly on demand, and the market transaction atmosphere is average.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on October 25th, the reference price for propylene was 6963.25, a decrease of 4.23% compared to October 1st (7270.75), and recent support for the epichlorohydrin market has weakened.

Downstream epoxy resin, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of epoxy resin on October 25th was 13933.33, a decrease of 8.13% compared to October 1st (15166.67), providing general support for the epichlorohydrin market.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current strong supply side support has boosted the mentality of businesses, but the purchasing mentality on the demand side is cautious. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may remain stagnant and operate on a wait-and-see basis in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Recent price trends of tetrahydrofuran

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market price has temporarily stabilized this week. The average price of tetrahydrofuran in the mainstream domestic market this week was 13075.00 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 29.99% over the weekend.

Insufficient upstream support, average downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors are temporarily stable this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of tetrahydrofuran, the market for 1,4-butanediol has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 10685.71 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10400.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.67%, and a year-on-year decrease of 29.25% over the weekend. The market situation of maleic anhydride has slightly declined this week, with the price dropping from 7980.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7790.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.38%. The weekend price has decreased by 0.26% year-on-year. Overall, the upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a bearish impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the downstream market situation of tetrahydrofuran, the spandex market price has stabilized at a high level this week. The price of spandex is 34250.00 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.87% over the weekend. Downstream spandex market prices have stabilized at high levels, and downstream customers are generally proactive in purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Future prospects

In late October, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream 1,4-butanediol and maleic anhydride markets have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream spandex market has stabilized at a high level, and downstream demand is average. Business Society tetrahydrofuran analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience minor fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.