Acetic anhydride prices continue to decline this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 20th, the price of acetic anhydride was 6100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.79% compared to the price of 6475 yuan/ton on October 13th; The price of acetic anhydride plummeted by 18.56% compared to 7490 yuan/ton on October 1st. The positive support is not there, and the price of acetic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen this week.

Acetic acid prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the market analysis system of acetic acid products in the Business Society, as of October 20th, the price of acetic acid was 3575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.30% compared to the price of 3775 yuan/ton on October 13th; The price of acetic acid plummeted by 27.53% compared to 4933.33 yuan/ton on October 1st. Acetic acid enterprises have resumed operations, with accumulated inventory and sufficient supply of acetic acid. However, downstream procurement enthusiasm remains weak. This week, acetic acid prices have fallen, acetic anhydride costs have decreased, and the pressure on acetic anhydride to decline has increased.

Future prospects

Analysts from Business Society’s Acetic Anhydride Data believe that the supply of acetic acid is sufficient and the demand is poor. This week, the price of acetic acid has dropped, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride has increased; Downstream demand for acetic anhydride is weak, with many traders holding a wait-and-see attitude. Customers’ purchasing enthusiasm is poor, and manufacturers’ shipments are hindered, increasing the downward pressure on acetic anhydride; The production of acetic anhydride enterprises has decreased, and the supply of acetic anhydride has decreased. In the future, cost support is not there, and the demand for acetic anhydride is weak and the supply is decreasing. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 17th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6150.00 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of white carbon black declined narrowly, with an overall decrease of 1.2%. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6100 yuan/ton.

This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with the mainstream price of around 6100 yuan/ton. The negotiation atmosphere was decent, with downstream procurement being the main demand and average demand. The enthusiasm for stocking up was not strong, and manufacturers were mainly willing to offer discounts and take orders. The number of new orders was limited.

Chemical index: On October 16, the chemical index was 926 points, a decrease of 5 points from yesterday, a decrease of 33.86% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 54.85% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that in the short term, the white carbon black market is stable and weak.

Price trend

The domestic PA66 market remained stable in the first half of October. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the mixed benchmark price of PA66 in China was 20166.67 yuan/ton on October 16th, with a 0% increase or decrease compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In the early peak season of PA66, there was an increase in market prices. Overall, after the holiday, the spot prices of various brands fluctuated horizontally. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry has been maintained at over 65% recently, which is basically horizontal compared to the previous period. The production line situation of the enterprise has remained stable with minor changes. The on-site supply of goods has been digested during the peak season, and the pressure on inventory positions is not significant. The support from suppliers is still sufficient. Terminal enterprises still focus on maintaining production, with weak demand for on-site stock preparation, and moderate support for spot goods on the demand side. On the upstream side, the domestic market for hexamethylene diamine continues to be weak due to the weakness of the raw material pure benzene. On the market side, the quotation remained stagnant and trading was light. The cost side has poor support for the PA66 market. The current market performance is balanced, and the overall price of PA66 is sideways.

Future Market Forecast

The spot price of PA66 remained stable in the first half of October. The price trend of raw materials is weak, and the cost support for PA66 is average. The load of PA66 enterprise is almost horizontal, and the inventory position is low. The demand side still focuses on maintaining production, and it is expected that PA66 may continue its sideways trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 13th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 7120 yuan/ton, which is 7080 yuan/ton compared to the reference average price on October 7th. This week, the domestic price of thermal phosphoric acid increased by 0.85%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 13th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 7016 yuan/ton, which is lower than the reference average price of 7016 yuan/ton on October 7th. The domestic wet process phosphoric acid price remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of thermal phosphoric acid was slightly adjusted and operated, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid remained stable. This week’s raw material prices have risen, and cost support has strengthened. There is no significant increase in downstream demand, and market trading is weak. As of October 13th, the factory quotation for 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 7100 yuan/ton, the factory quotation for 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6800-7000 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6900 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore. After the end of the National Day holiday, the overall trend of phosphorus ore market prices continues to rise. As of October 13th, the domestic market price of 30 grade phosphate ore is based on 998 yuan/ton, with a post holiday price increase of 2.89%.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the market situation in Yungui yellow phosphorus has been improving this week. Yellow phosphorus enterprises have started operations steadily, with an increase in market inquiries and an increase in transaction prices. However, downstream procurement is still relatively cautious. As of October 13th, the reference price for yellow phosphorus in the market is around 25293 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is subject to negotiation.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society phosphoric acid analysts believe that the recent narrow range consolidation and operation of the phosphoric acid market is the main focus. Although the raw material market has risen, downstream demand is weak, and phosphoric acid enterprises have not made significant adjustments for the time being. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will stabilize and operate smoothly.

Acetic anhydride prices surged in September

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 28th, the price of acetic anhydride was 7490 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.14% compared to the price of 6132.50 yuan/ton on September 1st; The price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and increased by 1.18% compared to 7402.50 yuan/ton on September 20th. The price of acetic anhydride increased significantly in the first and second half of the year, while the price increase in acetic anhydride slowed down in the latter half of the year.

Acetic acid prices fluctuated and rose in September

According to the market analysis system of acetic acid products in the Business Society, as of September 28th, the price of acetic acid was 4933.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 21.31% compared to September 1st, which was 4066.67 yuan/ton; The price of acetic acid increased by 0.68% compared to 4900 yuan/ton on September 20th. In the early days, many acetic acid enterprises ceased production, resulting in insufficient supply of acetic acid and a significant increase in acetic acid prices; In the second half of the year, some acetic acid enterprises resumed construction, and the supply of acetic acid increased. In addition, the dual stocking period has basically ended, leading to a decrease in downstream procurement enthusiasm. The rise in acetic acid prices has slowed down, and the cost support for acetic anhydride has decreased.

Future prospects

Analysts from Business Society Acetic Anhydride Data believe that in terms of raw materials, in early September, acetic acid companies had a lot of parking, low acetic acid inventory, tight acetic acid supply, and a sharp rise in acetic acid prices. As acetic acid manufacturers resumed operations, acetic acid inventory increased, acetic acid supply increased, and the rise in acetic acid prices slowed down, weakening the cost support for acetic acid anhydride. In terms of supply and demand, the supply of raw material acetic acid is limited, and acetic anhydride enterprises have no raw material to start at full capacity. Some acetic anhydride manufacturers have shut down, and the supply of acetic anhydride is insufficient. The operating load of Shandong acetic anhydride manufacturers has decreased, and the spot supply of acetic anhydride has tightened; Double stocking led to an increase in downstream purchasing enthusiasm. In the first and second half of the year, the price of acetic anhydride surged. In the second half of the year, as stocking ended, downstream purchasing enthusiasm decreased and demand for acetic anhydride weakened. In the future, the quality of gold, silver, and ten is limited, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is less than expected. With the resumption of construction by acetic anhydride enterprises, the expected recovery of acetic anhydride supply and cost support are weakening, and the expected price fluctuation of acetic anhydride is stabilizing.

Gold prices rose first and then fell in September

The price of precious metal gold rose in September. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the spot market price of gold on September 28, 2023 was 462.87 yuan/g, an increase from the spot market price of 462.84 yuan/g at the beginning of this month (September 1).

Silver prices fell by 0.89%

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average silver market price on September 28, 2023 was 5766 yuan/kg, a decrease of 2.33% compared to the average silver market price of 5903.67 yuan/kg at the beginning of this month (September 1).

Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil

In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation. The trend of precious metals and crude oil began to converge in late March, but after mid April, the trend began to diverge again. Mainly due to the increased impact of risk aversion on the rise of precious metal prices. Recently, crude oil prices have rebounded, and precious metal prices have also followed suit.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise. Silver prices began to decline in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices reached a high level and silver prices began to rise. After July, gold prices have become stronger.

Macro news surface

According to data released by the US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday, the personal consumption expenditure price index, also known as the PCE price index, rose 0.4% month on month in August, lower than the market’s expected 0.5%; Excluding food and energy prices, the core PCE price index in August increased by 0.1% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9%.

Future Market Forecast

At present, the price of precious metals has been fluctuating in the high range after hitting a 10-year high in the early stage. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively strong sense of risk aversion, which is currently reflected in prices. Some central banks around the world have increased their holdings of gold reserves, which has also provided some support for gold prices.

However, as market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for a long time continue to rise, the US dollar index has significantly risen, reducing the attractiveness of gold to investors. The international gold price in the US dollar has started to decline, while the domestic RMB gold price was relatively strong in the early stage, and has slightly declined today. At present, the premium level of domestic gold prices compared to international gold prices has set a record, reaching over $100 per ounce, while the average premium level in the past decade has been less than $6. Therefore, precious metal prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of September 22, 2023, the factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was set at 4333 yuan/ton. Compared to September 18 (referring to the price of dimethyl carbonate at 4300 yuan/ton), the price increased by 33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.78%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (9.18-9.22), the overall market situation of dimethyl carbonate in China has slightly increased. Entering this week, the overall news of the domestic dimethyl carbonate market has been relatively calm, with the overall load switch maintenance being the main focus. Downstream procurement and stocking are mainly based on demand and quantity. At the beginning of the week, supported by the upward trend of raw materials and the good shipment situation of some Shandong factories, the price of dimethyl carbonate increased narrowly, with an increase of around 100 yuan/ton. However, the downstream demand side continued to purchase on demand, and the overall market remained stable and consolidated, As of September 21st, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is around 4100-4300 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the on-site supply of dimethyl carbonate is relatively stable, and the demand side of polycarbonate is generally stable. Other industries are stable, and the market is mainly consolidation. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic market for dimethyl carbonate will mostly be stable with small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of polyformaldehyde in Shandong have been fluctuating and declining recently. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5462.50 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5412.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.92%, a month on month decrease of 0.23%, and a year-on-year decrease of 1.14%.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is on the rise, driven by demand, and the methanol market continues to improve, with a significant increase in order volume. The market atmosphere is relatively high, and shipments are smooth. In terms of supply and demand, there have been breakthroughs in pre holiday stocking by netizens. Methanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic methanol market is mainly characterized by high volatility.

Recently, the methanol market has been fluctuating and rising, and cost support is still acceptable. However, downstream demand is poor, and polyformaldehyde manufacturers are facing difficulties in shipping. Polyformaldehyde analysts from the business company predict that prices may decline slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 19, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 7120 yuan/ton, which is lower than the reference average price of 7120 yuan/ton on September 13. The domestic thermal phosphoric acid price remained stable this week.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 19, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6983 yuan/ton, which is lower than the reference average price of 6983 yuan/ton on September 13. The domestic wet process phosphoric acid price remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The phosphoric acid market price remained stable this week. The price of raw material phosphate rock has increased, while the price of raw material yellow phosphorus has first decreased and then increased, providing positive cost support. Downstream on-demand procurement, low enthusiasm, and temporarily stable operation of the phosphoric acid market. As of September 19th, the factory quotation for 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 7300 yuan/ton, while the factory quotation for 85 industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 7000 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6350-7800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, this week the market price of Yungui yellow phosphorus was first suppressed and then increased. At the beginning of the week, the overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus was average, with downstream procurement being priced down and being resistant to high-end prices, resulting in a downward shift in the focus of market transactions. Recently, the price of yellow phosphorus has started to rise, and downstream inquiries have increased. As of now, the market quotation is around 26000-26500 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphorus ore, the domestic mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore market has seen an overall upward trend this week. The downstream demand for domestic phosphate ore is gradually recovering, and with demand boosting, the phosphate ore industry has a good mentality. The supply of mid to high-end grade ore in phosphate rock yards is tight, and spot circulation is tight. With the support of both supply and demand sides, the focus of the phosphate ore market has been constantly moving upwards in recent days.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to phosphoric acid analysts from Business Society, the recent stable consolidation and operation of phosphoric acid is the main focus. The raw material yellow phosphorus market is pushing up, and cost support is strengthening. However, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and cautious wait-and-see is still the main focus. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market price will slightly adjust with the raw materials.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of September 18, 2023, the factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was set at 4300 yuan/ton. Compared to September 10, the price progress remained unchanged, and compared to August 18 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 4433 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.01%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that in the recent period (9.10 to 9.18), the overall range of the domestic dimethyl carbonate market has stabilized and operated. Recently, the overall news of dimethyl carbonate on the market has been relatively calm, with little adjustment in the supply and demand side. Downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate is relatively flat, and the overall opening of pre holiday stocking is relatively slow. The market is in a stage of interval consolidation and operation. As of September 18th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is referenced around 4000 to 4300 yuan/ton, and the price of the higher end is referenced around 4500 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on the market is average, and the market is relatively stable. The slight decline in the raw material market provides general support for dimethyl carbonate, and new orders on the market are relatively cautious. According to the dimethyl carbonate data analyst of the Business Society, in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.