Cobalt prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 15th, the cobalt price was 252600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.94% compared to the cobalt price of 255000 yuan/ton on September 8th; The cobalt price increased by 0.88% compared to 250400 yuan/ton on September 1st. The supply of electrolytic cobalt is stable, and downstream demand for magnetic materials and high-temperature alloys is weak or even weakening. The growth of new energy vehicles is less than expected, and the demand for cobalt in the market is poor. International cobalt prices continue to decline, and cobalt prices have fluctuated and fallen this week.

International cobalt price decline

From the trend chart of MB cobalt prices, it can be seen that in September, MB cobalt prices continued their decline in August, experiencing a significant fluctuation and decline. International cobalt prices fell, which was negative for the domestic cobalt market and increased pressure on domestic cobalt prices to decline.

Stable supply and poor demand in cobalt market

From the supply side perspective, the production of the smelting plant has maintained growth this week. Although the increase is mainly for preparation for delivery and storage, there is a large inventory in the trading sector, and the spot supply in the cobalt market is relatively stable. From the demand side, the demand for downstream magnetic materials and high-temperature alloys is weak or even weakening, and the short-term supply and demand relationship is still slightly surplus. The demand for new energy vehicles and mobile phones has rebounded less than expected, with poor demand for cobalt prices.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, international cobalt prices continued to decline in September, while the international cobalt market remained weak. The domestic cobalt market still has a slight oversupply of supply and demand, and the sustained rise in cobalt prices lacks support. Overall, the stable supply and demand in the cobalt market are less than expected, with insufficient support for the rise of cobalt prices. The cobalt price has hit a bottom of 250000 yuan, and there is limited room for the decline of cobalt prices. In the future, cobalt prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate widely.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 1140 yuan/ton on September 8th, and 1090 yuan/ton on September 14th. This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price fell by 4.39%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price fell this week. The price of urea has fallen, negatively affecting the ammonium sulfate market. The international market for ammonium sulfate is poor, and domestic bidding prices have declined. Downstream cautious procurement is the main focus, and distributors are actively shipping, with a wait-and-see attitude in the industry. As of September 14th, the mainstream market quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 1050 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 1080-1140 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society’s ammonium sulfate market believe that the recent trend of ammonium sulfate price is weak and downward. Downstream just needs to purchase, market demand is average, and the focus of transaction is exploring. At present, there are no positive factors in the market, and it is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will be weak in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of September 13, 2023, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at 13500 yuan/ton. Compared with September 8 (organic silicon DMC reference 13340 yuan/ton), the price increased by 160 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.20%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that in the recent period (9.8-9.13), the overall domestic silicone DMC market has shown a slight upward trend. Entering September, the domestic organic silicon DMC market has finally experienced an upward trend. With the upcoming Mid Autumn Festival and National Day, downstream demand for organic silicon DMC has improved, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm has increased. The overall order acceptance situation of organic silicon DMC factories is good, and the market situation is steadily upward driven by demand. As of September 13th, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference is around 13300-13700 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the organic silicon DMC market is mild, and the mentality of the industry is good. The supply and demand transmission of organic silicon DMC has improved. The organic silicon DMC data analyst of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mostly operate steadily, with a strong trend. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream domestic market for neopentyl glycol increased from 9733.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10033.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.08%. Weekend prices fell by 3.83% year-on-year. On September 12th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 49.64, an increase of 0.8 points from yesterday, a decrease of 52.09% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 15.31% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol has risen this week.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 8933.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9000.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.75%. Weekend prices increased by 14.41% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of new pentanediol.

3、 Future prospects

In mid to late September, the market trend of new pentanediol may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market slightly increased, with increased cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market is operating on a wait-and-see basis. From September 4th to 11th, the average price of domestic BDO remained at 11642 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.58% month on month and 9.45% year on year. The maintenance equipment has been restarted one after another, and the market supply has increased; However, the increase in demand downstream of the terminal is limited, the pressure on supply and demand increases, the intention of production enterprises to maintain prices continues, the negotiation game intensifies, and the overall market fluctuation is not significant.

On the supply side, the devices have gradually restarted, the industry’s operating rate has significantly increased, and the positive support on the supply side has weakened, exacerbating the cautious wait-and-see sentiment on the market. There are currently no planned changes to other devices. The supply side of BDO is mixed.

Cost side, raw material calcium carbide: With the improvement of calcium carbide arrival, downstream demand is gradually increasing. In September, there have been new and resumed production of calcium carbide furnaces, and there are expectations of a continuous increase in supply. Recently, there has been a significant increase in inventory in the calcium carbide market, and the decline has begun. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market has been experiencing high volatility recently. As of 15:00 on September 11th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2510 yuan/ton. Recently, the market for calcium carbide and methanol has been at a high level, and the cost side of BDO is relatively favorable.

On the demand side, except for the restart of maintenance equipment in the main PTMEG industry and the improvement of new production capacity, the performance of other downstream industries is average. And some downstream industries are in a state of loss, with poor transmission of cost pressure and weak acceptance of high prices. Short term bearish factors on the demand side of BDO.

In the future market forecast, although entering the traditional peak season, the increase in demand downstream of the terminal is not significant, and the contradiction between supply and demand is intensifying. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market may fluctuate and decline.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of September 8, 2023, the factory price of domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was set at 4300 yuan/ton. Compared to September 3, the price progress remained unchanged, and compared to August 1 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 4666 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.86%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (9.3-9.8), the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market remained stable and organized. During the week, the overall news on the dimethyl carbonate site was relatively calm, with little change in supply and demand. The overall performance of downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate was average, and the boost given to the market by the demand side was limited. Some factories had some supply pressure, and the market was generally weak and consolidating. As of September 8th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate was referenced around 4000-4300 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on the market is light, and downstream procurement is relatively cautious. New orders are mainly negotiated and new orders are sold. According to the dimethyl carbonate data analyst of Business Society, in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is mainly subject to narrow adjustment and operation, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

This week’s lead market (8.28-9.4) fluctuated upwards, with the average price in the domestic market at 16175 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 16515 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, up 2.10%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar indicates the range of rise and fall, and the recent market trend is relatively strong, with the lead ingot market rising for 8 consecutive weeks.

In terms of the futures market, the recent macro trend has been good, with the overall domestic and international environment warming, inflation in the United States falling, expectations for interest rate hikes lowered, and the external market showing a good trend. The domestic market continues to release heavyweight positive news, with economic expectations improving and overall macroeconomic performance improving, driving the metal market up. Shanghai lead fluctuated and rose, with Shanghai lead leading the way up 2.3% on Thursday night, hitting a new high of 16810 yuan/ton in about four years. On Friday morning, Shanghai lead continued its overnight rise and opened higher. As of the close of the 1st, the main 2310 contract of Shanghai lead rose 4.47%, leading the domestic metal market to a four-year high.

In terms of supply and demand, domestic and foreign mining supply is still tight, and primary lead manufacturers have recently resumed production, with supply slightly recovering. Under the dual impact of tight supply of recycled lead raw materials and high raw material prices, prices have slightly increased. In terms of demand, the downstream peak season performance did not meet expectations. Recently, lead prices have risen, cost pressure has increased, and the overall operating rate has slightly decreased. Overall, the lead ingot market has been relatively weak in recent times due to fundamental factors, mainly following macro fluctuations. The impact of capital games on the market far exceeds the supply and demand side, and it is expected that the market trend will be weak and volatile in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the recent macro and fund performance.

On September 3rd, the base metal index stood at 1231 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 23.82% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 91.74% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were 14 commodities in the non-ferrous sector on the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 35th week of 2023 (8.28-9.1), with aluminum (3.65%), dysprosium metal (2.94%), and lead (2.32%) ranking among the top three commodities. There are two products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with nickel (-1.68%) and cobalt (-1.65%) being the top two products in terms of decline. This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.68%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from August 28th to September 1st, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China dropped from 9700 yuan/ton to 9650 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.52% during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 1.05% in price. The raw material pure benzene market continues to be high, and the cost pressure is on the high side, which has slightly reduced the impact on the operation of production enterprises’ devices. Downstream procurement is more on demand, with a market mentality of organizing and watching.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene and the domestic pure benzene market continue to be on the high side. The rise in crude oil has boosted market confidence, and the Shandong refinery’s quotation has steadily risen. Downstream and traders have actively followed suit within the day, and the transaction is still acceptable. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the supply side, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is around 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to device maintenance. The short-term supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream caprolactam production, and caprolactam is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market is undergoing consolidation and operation, with downstream procurement on demand, and the price center is temporarily stable. The demand side for cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.

In the future market forecast, from a cost perspective, the raw material prices are high and the cost pressure will not decrease. The supply and demand game of cyclohexanone commodity volume is predicted by cyclohexanone analysts from Business Society. In the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly consolidate.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 31, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21100.00 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.78% compared to the beginning of the month’s price of 21266.67 yuan/ton, and an increase of 20.57% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 31, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24766.67 yuan/ton, which was generally unchanged from the beginning of the month and increased by 1.78% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In August, the upstream raw material prices of R22 remained stable and weak, while the cost remained low. The overall domestic R22 market prices remained stable and weak, supported by the high demand season for refrigerants in summer, and the overall domestic R22 price fluctuated slightly. At the end of the month, the price of chloroform bottomed out and rebounded, rising by 8.85% within the month. The price of hydrofluoric acid rebounded in the later part of the month, rising by 3.52% within the month. The sustained rebound in raw material costs will provide strong support for the R22 market price in September.

In August, the domestic price of trichloroethylene continued to operate at a low level during the month, while the price of hydrofluoric acid rebounded at the end of August, with an overall increase of 3.52%. The overall cost of upstream raw materials continued to fluctuate and move forward. The overall price of R134a was in a dilemma, and the overall quotation of enterprises remained stable. In August, the domestic price of R134a remained stable and moved forward.

In terms of raw materials, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices bottomed out and rebounded at the end of the month, rising by 3.52% within the month. A slight increase in raw material costs will provide some support for the future price of R134a.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to refrigerant analysts from Business Society, the cost of raw materials has rebounded comprehensively at the end of August, and with the support of higher costs, it is expected that there will be varying degrees of room for domestic R22 and R134a prices to rise in September.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, the spot market price of PVC increased in August. On August 1st, the average domestic PVC price was 6052 yuan/ton, and on August 30th, the average price was 6184 yuan/ton, with a monthly price increase of 2.18%.

2、 Market analysis

The spot market price of PVC rose in August. The spot price of PVC fluctuated slightly in the first and middle of this month. The trading atmosphere in the spot market is poor, and the market trading is light. Traders have low enthusiasm for purchasing goods, and downstream purchases are made on demand, with caution in actual orders. The futures market prices have risen frequently in the latter half of the year, and the atmosphere in the spot market has also improved. It is difficult to find low-priced goods, and prices continue to rise. However, downstream market demand is average, resisting high prices, and actual order follow-up is slightly insufficient. At present, the confidence in the PVC spot market is still good, with prices mainly remaining stable at the end of the month. As of now, the quotation range for PVC 5 type carbide materials in China is mostly around 6150-6350 yuan/ton.

In August, crude oil emerged from a trend of rising and falling, and in the first half of the year, the market continued to rise amidst supply concerns and the positive trend of the peak oil consumption season. Brent crude oil topped $87 per barrel, while WTI crude oil approached $83, reaching a nearly 9-month high. Afterwards, with the deterioration of macro data, the market turned sharply downwards, and near the end of the month, the WTI fell below $80. Under the combined effect of OPEC+production control and weak economic data in oil producing countries, the supply-demand game intensifies, and the market shifts into a narrow range of fluctuations. In the short term, the driving force for the oil market to continue to rise is limited. Under the hedging of weak demand expectations and tight supply, the high probability range is mainly characterized by narrow fluctuations.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region increased significantly in August, with the price of calcium carbide rising from 2950.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3283.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 11.30%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 11.26% year-on-year. Looking at the future market: In mid to early September, the calcium carbide market may slightly increase, with consolidation being the main focus. The prices of upstream raw materials such as blue charcoal have stabilized at a high level, and the cost of calcium carbide is well supported. The downstream PVC market has slightly increased, and downstream demand is good. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly in mid to early September, with consolidation being the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that the factory price of calcium carbide increased significantly in August, with strong cost support. Recently, PVC futures prices have been rising frequently, but the market’s acceptance of high priced goods is not good, and the trading situation is average. Downstream procurement is on demand, and actual orders are cautious. It is expected that the PVC market will continue to fluctuate within the range in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.