According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of August 29, 2023, the reference price for domestic n-propanol was 7966 yuan/ton. Compared with August 1, 2023 (reference price for n-propanol was 7733 yuan/ton), the price increased by 233 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.02%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that since August (8.1-8.29), the overall market situation of n-propanol in China has shown a fluctuating and upward trend. In early August, the n-propanol market as a whole fell first and then rose. At the beginning of the month, some n-propanol suppliers in Shandong slightly lowered the price of n-propanol based on their own inventory and shipping situation, with a reduction of around 100 yuan/ton. Subsequently, with stable downstream demand support, the n-propanol market began to steadily rise and operate. As of August 15th, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong region was around 7100-7600 yuan/ton.

In late August, the supply and demand side of the n-propanol market conducted normally, and the support provided by the supply and demand side to the market was relatively stable. The focus of the n-propanol market in Shandong region continued to move towards the high-end. As of August 29, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region was around 7400-8000 yuan/ton. The market for n-propanol in Nanjing is relatively stable, and the market price for n-propanol is around 9000 yuan/ton. Distributors in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus. Up and running, as of August 15th, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7100-7600 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the Future Market Trend of n-propanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-propanol on the market is mild, and there is not much adjustment in the supply and demand side. Downstream demand continues to be just needed to replenish and purchase goods, and supply side inventory is normal. Business Society’s n-propanol data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will be mainly stable with minor fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in the supply and demand side news.

The price of plasticizer DBP increased significantly in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 28th, the DBP price was 10450 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.43% compared to the DBP price of 9637.50 yuan/ton on August 1st. The price of DBP raw material butanol has significantly increased, the price of phthalic anhydride has stabilized, the cost of plasticizer DBP has significantly increased, the demand for plasticizers has rebounded, plasticizer enterprises have started operating at a low level, and the supply of plasticizers has tightened. In August, the price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and increased.

The price of isooctanol increased in August

 
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on August 28th was 12200 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.20% compared to the price of 9983.33 yuan/ton on August 1st. The planned production of domestic isooctanol units and unexpected vehicle pick-up have led to a tight supply of isooctanol, low inventory of isooctanol, and an upward shift in market focus. In August, the price of isooctanol continued to skyrocket. The price of isooctanol has skyrocketed, and the cost of plasticizer DBP raw materials has increased. As the price of isooctanol has risen to a high level, buying sentiment towards pursuing higher prices has become cautious. With the restart of the isooctanol plant, the supply expectation of the isooctanol market is loose, and the sustained rise of isooctanol in the future is limited in support.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 28th, the price of n-butanol was 9233.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.63% compared to the price of n-butanol on August 1st, which was 7916.67 yuan/ton. In August, some regions in China underwent centralized maintenance of n-butanol plants, resulting in tight on-site supply and tight spot circulation, which supported the rise of n-butanol market. Downstream demand was flat, and downstream enterprises had average purchasing enthusiasm. The price of n-butanol rose strongly, and the cost support for plasticizer DBP remained.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 28th, the price increases of various products in the plastic sector compared to July 1st, from high to low, are PVC (12.48%), PP (wire drawing) (7.28%), and LLDPE (4.89%). Since July, as the plastic industry approaches the traditional peak season, the market has started to heat up, and various products in the plastic sector have seen a rise, with plastic futures rising at the same time. In the two months since July, the plastic industry has been dominated by Lido. On the macro level, inflation in the United States has cooled beyond expectations, the necessity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has decreased, and concerns about economic recession have eased. In terms of cost, the seasonal peak demand from refineries and OPEC production cuts in oil producing countries have led to a strengthening of international crude oil prices. At the same time, downstream plastic enterprises are gradually increasing their stocking, improving consumption follow-up, and enhancing market momentum. Under the dual support of rebounding consumption and high costs, the prices of plastic futures and three materials have fluctuated and risen.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that although August is the traditional off-season for plasticizers, the upstream and downstream of the plasticizer industry chain are both rising against the trend. In terms of raw materials, in August, the production of isooctanol was at a low level, and the supply of isooctanol was insufficient. The price of isooctanol continued to rise sharply, and the downstream demand for phthalic anhydride was weak. The support for benzene raw materials was no longer there. In August, the price of phthalic anhydride stopped rising and fell, and the overall cost of plasticizer product DBP raw materials increased significantly; The downstream plastic futures market has rebounded, and the demand for plasticizers has rebounded; The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is low, the supply of plasticizers is tight, and both upstream and downstream prices are rising. The support for the rise of plasticizer DBP is increasing, and DBP prices surged in August. In the future, as the peak season approaches, the demand for plasticizers is expected to rebound. However, in September, upstream and downstream enterprises of plasticizers are expected to resume construction, and the supply of raw materials such as isooctanol, n-butanol, and plasticizer DBP is expected to increase, resulting in a double increase in supply and demand; The supply of isooctanol and n-butanol has increased, and the support for the rise of isooctanol and n-butanol has weakened. The expected high prices of raw materials such as isooctanol and n-butanol have fallen back; Downstream customers have a low acceptance of high prices. As the supply of plasticizers increases, the downward pressure on plasticizers increases, and it is expected that DBP prices will fall back from high levels in the future.

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market continued to rebound, continuing its upward trend last week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, polycrystalline silicon rose 0.82% this week. At present, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of first grade solar energy is maintained at 70-85000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the production of silicon material manufacturers has significantly decreased, mainly due to the impact of power restrictions on their devices, resulting in a decrease in operating rates and a natural impact on production. In addition, although the new production capacity of silicon materials has been gradually released, the increment is limited, and the overall inventory is at a low level; The short-term shortage of silicon materials remains relatively tight, which is also the main reason why silicon material prices can continue to rise. At present, most silicon material companies have signed long-term orders for next month, and some individual orders continue to rise slightly due to tight market supply; Downstream silicon wafers have seen a rebound in demand for silicon materials.

From the demand side, the downstream silicon wafer production rate is normal, which brings stable incremental demand for silicon materials. The recent high temperature power restrictions have little impact on the actual output of silicon wafers. Silicon wafer companies operate at high operating rates, resulting in an increase in silicon wafer inventory, which may hinder prices in the later stages; From the perspective of terminal demand, there is no significant increase in the procurement demand for silicon wafers in the battery and component sectors; And the export sector still faces uncertain prospects. This may result in the price increase of silicon material being difficult to maintain for too long.

Future forecast: In the near future, the silicon material market may still remain relatively rigid and strong, but demand has not improved significantly. Therefore, the tight supply of silicon materials may gradually ease, and there is little possibility of retaliatory rebound in the future. Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that prices are expected to maintain a narrow adjustment pattern in the near future, with a slight increase as the main focus.

Overview of 441 # Silicon Price Trends

The current market situation of metal silicon this week is divided. The spot market continued to rise this week, with prices reaching 200 yuan/ton month on month. In the early stage, due to the rise of major factories in the northwest region, there were many orders in the northwest region, and silicon factories were actively quoting. The futures market experienced weak volatility this week, with SI2310 rising and falling by -0.84% throughout the week, closing at 13530 yuan/ton.

The prices of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 21st are as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 14000-14200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14100 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port area is 13900-14100 yuan/ton, with an average of 14000 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming region is 14100-14300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14200 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 13800-13900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13850 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 14400-14600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14500 yuan/ton.

Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

On the supply side:

As of August 18th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 350, with an overall furnace opening rate of 48.75%, an increase of 5 units compared to the previous month. After the recent Universiade, production in Sichuan has gradually resumed, while overall production in Yunnan has remained stable, while the number of furnaces in Xinjiang has maintained an increase.

In terms of demand:

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market continued to rebound and gradually stabilized, with the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials of grade 1 solar energy maintained at 67000 to 80000 yuan/ton. Multiple polysilicon companies have released new production capacity, supporting the demand for metallic silicon.

This week, the organic silicon DMC market saw a slight increase, with a market price reference of 13460 yuan/ton. I have heard that some devices in the organic silicon field are expected to restart, and there may be an increase in on-site supply. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will remain stable in the short term.

The aluminum alloy market is operating steadily, with the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 being 18900 yuan/ton. There has been no significant change in the operation of aluminum alloy factories, and the demand for metallic silicon continues to be weak.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, there has been an increase in short-term supply, while organic silicon and aluminum alloys on the demand side remain on the sidelines. There is expected to be an increase in the production capacity of polycrystalline silicon in the future, and it is expected that the price of metal silicon will be relatively strong in the short term.

Zinc prices fell first and then rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 21, the zinc price was 20276 yuan/ton, which decreased first and then increased compared to the zinc price of 20716 yuan/ton on August 13 last weekend, a decrease of 2.12%. After a significant increase in zinc ingot inventory in the LME market, it decreased. The zinc market has sufficient supply, but the macroeconomic recovery is less than expected. The demand for zinc is poor, and the metal zinc market is bearish. Zinc prices fell first and then rose this week.

Zinc ingot inventory in the LME market plummeted after a surge

From the inventory statistics of zinc ingots in the LME market, it can be seen that the inventory of zinc ingots in the LME market has significantly increased and slightly decreased, resulting in a significant increase in zinc supply in the market. The supply of zinc in the market is sufficient, and the downward pressure on the zinc market has increased. This week, zinc prices have fallen, but as the inventory growth in the zinc market weakens, the downward pressure on zinc prices has weakened and there has been a slight rebound.

Poor demand in the zinc market

The construction of domestic infrastructure and other related projects has not started well, with weak orders from galvanized enterprises, and the operating rate of enterprises has decreased month on month. The US dollar index rose sharply and then fell, while the non-ferrous metal market weakened but showed a rebound trend; The real estate market has experienced losses in the first half of the year due to the phenomenon of “buying houses but not loans”. The real estate market has not seen a significant improvement, and expectations of a rebound in demand in the zinc market have weakened, resulting in weak spot trading.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the inventory of zinc ingots in the LME market has skyrocketed, leading to a significant increase in zinc supply and significant downward pressure on the zinc market; In terms of demand, the macroeconomic recovery is poor, and the demand growth in the zinc market is less than expected, with insufficient support for the rise of the zinc market; However, at present, zinc prices have fallen to a two-year low, and there is limited room for a decline in zinc prices. In the future, there will be a double increase in supply and demand in the zinc market, but the demand growth is not as expected, and the supply is stable. It is expected that the zinc price will be weak and consolidate in the future.

This week (8.11-8.19), the market for butadiene rubber continued to rise slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 19th, the price of butadiene rubber in East China was 11440 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62% from last Friday’s 11370 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene continues to rise slightly, and the cost support of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber continues to strengthen; This week, the supply price of butadiene rubber has temporarily stabilized, and merchant offers have fluctuated slightly.

This week (8.11-8.19), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants slightly decreased.

This week (8.11-8.19), the price of raw material butadiene continued to rebound, and the cost center of butadiene rubber continued to slightly increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 19th, the price of butadiene was 7613 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83% from last Friday’s 7551 yuan/ton.

This week (8.11-8.19), the natural rubber market slightly declined, with a bearish impact on butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 19th, the price of natural rubber was 11775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01% from last Friday’s 11895 yuan/ton.

Recently, the tire operating rate has fluctuated slightly, with all steel tire operating slightly higher than at the beginning of the month, and half steel tire operating basically stable compared to the beginning of the month. The demand for rubber rigid support is stable. It is understood that as of mid August 2023, the operating load of rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province is 6.4% for all steel tires and around 7.2% for half steel tires.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the high raw material prices of butadiene rubber have support in terms of cost. This week, the production of butadiene rubber has slightly decreased, and the supply of butadiene rubber has slightly tightened; Downstream all steel tires slightly increased, slightly improving support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber; In summary, it is expected that the price of butadiene rubber will be relatively strong in the short term, but if the price of natural rubber continues to be low in the later stage, it will be difficult for butadiene rubber to strengthen again.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price decline of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to increase this week. On August 17th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 222000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.48% compared to the average price of 248000 yuan/ton on August 13th. The average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate on August 17th was 238600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.83% compared to the average price of 264600 yuan/ton on August 13th.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate has continued to decline and expand this week. In terms of supply, the current upstream inventory is relatively high, and the production output of lithium salt plants fluctuates little, resulting in sufficient circulation of goods in the spot market. In addition, the continuous decline in lithium carbonate futures prices has driven the price of lithium carbonate to continue to decline.

In terms of demand, due to the continuous downward trend of lithium carbonate prices and a weak market mentality, downstream procurement has become more cautious, and the atmosphere of loose orders and transactions in the market has remained weak. However, downstream procurement has not yet started on a large scale, and there has been no significant improvement on the demand side. The overall market situation of oversupply is maintained. At present, many businesses are bearish about the future market, so the trend of purchasing underpricing is not decreasing.

The price of lithium hydroxide has shown a downward trend, but due to the weak and stable operation of the lithium ore market recently, the price of lithium carbonate has continued to be low, and cost support is weak. In addition, downstream demand is weak, and the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement is not high. Market transactions are mainly based on demand, and the market is operating weakly.

The price trend of downstream lithium iron phosphate is downward, with weak support for upstream raw material costs and poor market demand. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, with weak willingness to stock up. The overall procurement atmosphere is cold and deserted, and the inventory level is currently high, with a stable operating rate.

In terms of futures, on August 17th, the opening price of the LC2401 contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 196000 yuan/ton, with the latest price of 194000 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.7%, with 68000 transactions and 26791 positions.

Lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society believe that some businesses are still affected by inventory pressure and bearish aftermarket conditions, and the phenomenon of reducing prices to promote transactions still exists. In the future, it is still necessary to pay attention to the actual demand for downstream procurement and replenishment, and it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to decline weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the focus of the domestic ethanol market continues to rise. From August 7th to 15th, the domestic ethanol price increased from 6687 yuan/ton to 6750 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.93%. The price remained stable month on month and decreased by 0.18% year-on-year. There are slight differences between regions in the domestic ethanol market, with different periods of increase. Henan region has a large number of orders, inventory has decreased, and companies have maintenance plans. Under the influence of favorable factors such as a significant increase in corn prices, the price has increased significantly. Large factories in Northeast Heilongjiang have limited shipments of food, resulting in a slight increase in prices.

On the cost side, due to the recent typhoon causing heavy rainfall in the north, the expected high yield of domestic corn has decreased. In addition, it will still take some time for the new season corn to go public, and the domestic corn market is gradually running out of high-quality and tradable grain sources. The domestic corn market is relatively strong. On August 15th, the benchmark price of corn in Shangshang Society was 2801.43 yuan/ton. There are temporary positive factors in the cost of ethanol.

On the supply side, the Fukang device was shut down and the Tianyu device resumed in mid August; Zhaodong Food resumed around August 15th, but production was limited. Longhe and Romet have plans to start production after the raw materials arrive at the port in the middle of the year. Henan Houyuan Device Storage and Maintenance Plan. The ethanol supply is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream chemical companies are just in need of procurement, and large ethyl acetate factories are gradually returning to full capacity. At the end of August, some factories in East China have maintenance plans. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, cost and supply support are high, and demand is expected to break through. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may experience strong fluctuations in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of petroleum coke from local refineries increased first and then stabilized this week. On August 13th, the average market price in Shandong was 2009.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.21% compared to the price of 1946.50 yuan/ton on August 7th.

On August 13th, the petroleum coke commodity index was 156.26, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 61.77% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 points (2022-05-11), and an increase of 133.61% from the lowest point of 66.89 points on March 28th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 30th, 2012 to the present)

This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose. Due to concerns about market supply and continued fermentation, coupled with the positive phase of the peak oil consumption season, OPEC+, an oil producing country, has continued to reduce production by an additional scale, and the decline in finished oil storage in the United States has exceeded expectations.

Supply side: Port petroleum coke storage continues to decline, refining petroleum coke storage remains low

The inventory of petroleum coke in domestic ports continues to decline. Recently, there have been fewer imported petroleum coke arriving at ports. In addition, downstream procurement is active, and import traders have a strong willingness to ship. The speed of port shipment is relatively high, and the inventory of petroleum coke in ports is still mainly destocking. This week, the shipment of refined petroleum coke was good, and the overall inventory of the refinery was low. The main focus was on executing early orders, and downstream demand was good, driving up the price of refined petroleum coke. With the high price of petroleum coke, some downstream wait-and-see sentiment has increased, with local refining petroleum coke prices mainly stabilizing.

On the demand side: terminal operating rate increases, demand increases

The price of metal silicon has increased this week. As of August 10th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 345, with an overall furnace opening rate of 48.05%, an increase of 22 units compared to the previous month. The Sichuan Universiade has ended, and some silicon factories have slowly resumed production; Stable resumption of work and production in Xinjiang region; Due to natural disasters, some smelting furnaces in the Yunnan region have been affected and have been basically restored, with little impact on supply. The operating rate of metal silicon has slightly increased, providing slight support for the procurement of petroleum coke, with mostly small orders in demand.

The local refining petroleum coke market has risen, while the calcined coke market has slightly increased. The release of new and resumed production capacity at Yunnan Aluminum Plant is nearing completion, and most aluminum carbon enterprises are operating at full capacity, which still provides favorable support for the petroleum coke market.

Aftermarket forecast: Overall low inventory in the refinery this week, with more execution of early orders as the main focus, and good downstream demand, driving up the price of refined petroleum coke. With the high price of petroleum coke, some downstream wait-and-see sentiment has increased, and it is expected that the recent refining of petroleum coke may be the main focus.

From August 4th to August 11th, 2023, the antimony ingot market in East China fell first and then rose. The price was 75750 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week, and 76750 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, an increase of 1.32%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above figure, it can be seen that the trend of the antimony ingot market was relatively stable in April, and the overall market was weak in June. After seven consecutive weeks of decline, prices slightly rebounded at the end of July.

The price of European strategic small metal antimony has temporarily stabilized this week, reaching $11450 per ton as of August 11th. The price has remained stable this week, and the overall market atmosphere is on the wait-and-see side.

This week, the antimony ingot market continued its slight upward trend over the weekend, with prices rising by about 1000 yuan/ton during the week. The recent changes in supply and demand have been limited, and they still show weak supply and demand, especially the sluggish downstream demand. The market has a strong bearish sentiment, but since the weekend, antimony ingot manufacturers have had a strong attitude of price support, resulting in a slight increase in antimony ingot prices. The stabilization of overseas markets also provides some support for the market. Overall, the supply and demand in the antimony ingot market are weak, with refinery prices rising and antimony ingot prices rebounding. However, downstream demand is weak, and there is limited room for further upward growth in the future. It is expected to maintain temporary stable operation in the short term.

This week, the antimony oxide market is operating weakly, with weak downstream demand and overall soft market transactions. The demand for antimony ingots remains strong, while the intention to receive goods from upstream is weak, and on-demand procurement is maintained.