According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic BDO market experienced narrow fluctuations in July. From July 1st to 30th, the average price of BDO in China first rose from 9035 yuan/ton and then fell to 8942 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.03% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 18.54%.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic BDO market was deadlocked and negotiations were slow. There are many maintenance and replacement devices, and the market supply of goods has decreased. Production enterprises mainly have the intention to maintain prices. Downstream on-demand procurement, and the main downstream PTMEG market is declining. The industry is adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude, and the market trading focus is temporarily stable

In mid month, the domestic BDO market operated weakly, with contract orders trading and light spot negotiations. Recently, the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry has decreased, the supply of spot goods in the market has decreased, and the supply side’s stable market mentality continues. But the actual demand downstream is average, and the export price of new production capacity is relatively low. The overall market situation is deadlocked due to the game between supply and demand.

At the end of the month, the domestic BDO market was weak and deadlocked, approaching the settlement cycle, with a mainly cautious and wait-and-see attitude. Follow up on urgent orders downstream of the terminal, the game between supply and demand continues, and the market trading center is deadlocked.

As the end of the month approaches, the domestic BDO market has shifted downwards, with light trading volume in spot orders. The actual follow-up of downstream terminals is average, and the purchasing and sales mentality of operators is bearish, with sporadic small spot orders negotiated for discounts, resulting in a downward shift in the market price range.

Supply side: In terms of equipment, the Shaanxi Black Cat equipment stopped and replaced the agent, but after some maintenance equipment was restarted in the early stage, the negative operation increased. The market supply of goods showed an increasing trend, and the positive support from the supply side weakened. The impact of favorable factors on the BDO supply side has weakened.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The maintenance of some PVC enterprises in Inner Mongolia has led to an increase in external sales of calcium carbide, and some enterprises have experienced an increase in load. The overall market supply is sufficient, and the calcium carbide market has narrowly declined. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market was mainly weak and volatile in July, and the BDO cost side was affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, downstream industries such as PTMEG spandex, PBT, and PBAT have seen a decline in market conditions, with most downstream terminals experiencing losses in profits. Under cost pressure, there is a bargaining sentiment towards raw material inventory. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

Future predictions indicate that most maintenance equipment will restart, leading to a significant increase in market supply and weak support from the supply side. Although the main downstream PTMEG maintenance equipment has also restarted, other downstream operations are average, with limited increase in raw material digestion and intensified pressure on the supply and demand sides. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market will mainly operate weakly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak and fluctuating recently (July 17-July 29). As of July 29, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 14011 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50% from 14082 yuan/ton on July 17, with a peak of 14223 yuan/ton during the cycle. On the one hand, raw material prices have slightly decreased, and on the other hand, downstream production has decreased, and there is resistance to high priced sources of goods. The overall market is in a weak consolidation state.

On the one hand, in recent days (7.17-7.29), there has been a certain increase in the supply of raw materials from domestic and foreign raw material production areas. The price of natural rubber raw materials has slightly decreased, and the cost has weakened in the face of the domestic natural rubber market support. As of July 26th, the price of Thai glue was 63.00 baht/kg, slightly lower than the price in mid July; As of the 29th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas was around 13400 yuan/ton, slightly lower than the price in mid July.

On the other hand, the speed of natural rubber inventory turnover has slowed down. As of July 21, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 476100 tons, a decrease of 0.38% compared to the previous period.

Downstream all steel tire production has slightly decreased, and demand has weakened due to the weak support of the natural rubber market. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, resulting in a slight drop in natural rubber prices. As of July 24th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.4%.

Market forecast: Currently, the supply of raw materials at home and abroad is gradually increasing, and the price of natural rubber raw materials is slightly falling; In addition, downstream tire companies have seen a slight decrease in production and are cautious about purchasing high priced goods; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will consolidate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic isopropanol market fluctuated and fell this week. On Monday, the average price of isopropanol in China was 8450 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 8380 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 0.83% during the week.

This week, the domestic isopropanol market fluctuated and fell. On Wednesday, the propylene process unit of Zhejiang Xinhua was shut down for maintenance, resulting in a slight increase in on-site prices in Jiangsu. Prices have fallen again over the weekend. Overall, the market performance is average, with a strong wait-and-see attitude within the market. Downstream inquiries are average, and there is a strong need to purchase goods. Actual orders are cautious. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 8200-8350 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 8500-8600 yuan/ton, while in the South China region, the price is around 8775 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the market price of acetone has fallen this week. The average price of acetone on Monday was 7742.5 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 7450 yuan/ton. Overall, the price decreased by 3.78%. At present, the fundamentals of acetone continue to decline, and traders are actively shipping at low prices. Downstream factories purchase according to demand, and it is expected that the short-term acetone price in the East China market will be between 7300-7400 yuan/ton.

In terms of propylene, the propylene market fell first and then rose this week. On Monday, the average domestic propylene price was 7145.75 yuan/ton, and on Friday, the average price was 7140.75 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.07%. At present, the inventory of enterprises is low and there is no pressure. Downstream purchases are made according to demand, and it is expected that the market will experience slight fluctuations and consolidation in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the isopropanol market price has fluctuated and fallen this week. The acetone market is declining, while the propylene market prices are fluctuating and consolidating, with average cost support. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average, with a focus on essential needs. It is expected that the isopropanol market will operate weakly in the short term.

This week, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 19th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9725 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 1.89% compared to the DOP price of 9912.50 yuan/ton on July 12th last weekend. The market for phthalic anhydride, a raw material for plasticizers, has fluctuated and stabilized, while the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen. The cost of plasticizers has also decreased, and the price of DOP, a plasticizer, has fluctuated and fallen this week.

This week, the price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 19th, the price of isooctanol was 9480 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 2.67% compared to the price of 9740 yuan/ton on July 12th last weekend. Downstream factories purchase according to demand, the plasticizer market is declining, and enterprises have poor enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Shandong’s large factories sell at a discount, and the market transaction center is shifting downwards, resulting in significant downward pressure on isooctanol.

This week, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride has slightly fallen

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the domestic phthalic anhydride market has slightly declined this week. As of July 19th, the price of phthalic anhydride in the phthalic anhydride market was 8075 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.15% compared to the price of 8087.50 yuan/ton on July 12th last weekend. Domestic neighboring phthalic anhydride is priced at 7900-8100 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic naphthalene phthalic anhydride is priced at 7450-7550 yuan/ton before leaving the factory. The domestic production rate of phthalic anhydride is around 60%, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is stable. The sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. This week, the price of industrial naphthalene fluctuated and fell, and the naphthalene based phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell. The ortho benzene market is temporarily stable, and the ortho benzene based phthalic anhydride market is stabilizing. This week, the phthalic anhydride market has been weak and stabilizing.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, the price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week, the price of phthalic anhydride slightly fell, and the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased; Downstream manufacturers have poor demand for plasticizers during the off-season. In the future, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride will fluctuate and fall, the cost of raw materials will decrease, and downstream demand will be sluggish. The price of plasticizer DOP will remain weak and consolidate in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon was 11900 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, and the price of activated carbon was 11933/ton over the weekend, with a price increase of 0.28%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers’ quotations have remained stable this week, with some increases. The market transaction atmosphere is positive, and most of the shipments are based on orders. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan/ton, and demand has limited support for prices. The focus is on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; Fruit shell charcoal can be shipped smoothly from low to medium index sources. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, and the industry should pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The trading atmosphere in the activated carbon market is active, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average price of baking soda in the market is 2224 yuan/ton. On July 8th, the baking soda commodity index was 147.61, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.41% from the cycle’s highest point of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 67.23% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda is weak and the market is running smoothly, and the company’s shipment is still acceptable. At present, the price of baking soda in China is operating weakly, with the mainstream market average price of around 1900-2300 yuan/ton, and downstream demand is average. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The average market price is 1956 yuan/ton.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, and the upstream raw material soda ash has been weak in recent times. Downstream pharmaceutical, textile, food, and other sectors of baking soda have been purchasing on demand, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will be weak in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of July 8, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8500 yuan/ton. Compared with July 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 8433 yuan/ton), the price increased by 67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.79%.

From the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, it can be seen that as July approaches, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong region has seen an overall recovery, with market prices steadily rising and rising at low levels. As of July 8th, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 8400-8600 yuan/ton, with an increase of about 100-200 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month.

Analysis of factors influencing the market situation of n-butanol

In terms of demand: As we enter July, the downstream market demand for n-butanol is gradually releasing. Compared with the end of June, the overall performance of the downstream demand side for n-butanol has improved, providing stronger market support for the n-butanol market.

In terms of supply: Currently, the supply side of n-butanol is performing steadily, the market is operating steadily, and the overall pressure on the supply side is not high. Shipments are made on demand, and the support provided by the supply side for n-butanol is still acceptable.

Future analysis

At present, the trading temperature of n-butanol on the market is relatively smooth, and the transmission between supply and demand is relatively smooth. The downstream demand for n-butanol will continue to be slightly released. The n-butanol data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the expected stable and positive operation of the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong region is mainly focused on, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of June 28th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4280 yuan/ton. In June, DMF prices were mainly weak, with an overall price drop of 6.96%. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4300 yuan/ton, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. Enterprises mainly offer discounts and take orders, and the overall market negotiation focus is stable.

2、 Market analysis

In June, the overall market price of DMF was mainly weak with a narrow range, falling by 6.96% overall. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4300/ton. Manufacturers are actively shipping, logistics are smooth, and downstream demand is insufficient. At present, the cost side of DMF is slightly supported, and it will maintain stable, medium, and strong operation in the near future. Downstream enterprises need to purchase urgently.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, the DMF market will maintain its current trend, with mainstream prices remaining at 4700-4800 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic BDO market did not fluctuate significantly in May. From May 1st to 31st, the average price of domestic BDO decreased from 9071 yuan/ton to 9028 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.47% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 20.10%.

After the holiday, the domestic BDO market has experienced a downward trend, and there have been few reports of spot negotiations. After the holiday, the market news is light, and there is a lack of significant positive news on both the supply and demand sides. Business owners have a bearish purchasing and sales mentality, dragging down small orders in the market.

In mid month, the domestic BDO market is weak and wait-and-see, with little talk about spot trading. Although there has been an increase in maintenance and replacement equipment, the supply side support has been strengthened, and the supplier is willing to maintain prices. However, the actual demand downstream of the terminal is average, and supply and demand pressure still exists.

In the latter half of the month, the domestic BDO market was weak and deadlocked, with few spot negotiations. The increase in device maintenance and agent replacement has led to a significant decline in industry capacity utilization, and there is a certain positive outlook on the supply side. The supplier has a stable market mentality. The overall downstream load has also declined, leading to a reduction in the digestion of raw materials.

As the end of the month approaches, the domestic BDO market is operating weakly, with light spot and actual trading. There are no significant changes in the equipment, overall support is still acceptable, and the supplier’s intention to maintain prices continues. The actual performance of downstream demand in the terminal is average, and contract orders are maintained for follow-up. The supply and demand sides are in a tug of war, and the BDO market is weak and deadlocked.

Supply side: In terms of equipment, the overall construction of the BDO industry has increased, and the supply side support is currently average. However, some devices have released maintenance news in late April and early May, leading to an expected decrease in market supply in the later period; And currently, the industry’s profits are meager or even at a loss, and the supplier’s price mentality continues. The supply side of BDO is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market continues to be weak, with an increase in supply and a certain accumulation of inventory in production enterprises. Downstream centralized maintenance has led to a decrease in demand. In terms of methanol, the price increase caused by the tight supply of goods at the port is gradually being digested, market supply is increasing, downstream receiving sentiment is average, and rigid demand procurement is the main focus. The cost side of BDO is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, due to poor demand follow-up or maintenance of storage equipment, downstream industries such as PTMEG, PBT, PU slurry have reduced production, resulting in a decrease in raw material digestion. At the same time, the main downstream industries such as PTMEG spandex industry chain, PBT, PBAT, TPU, etc. saw a decline in market prices, leading to an increase in cautious bearish sentiment on the market. However, given the current low market prices, there is limited room for profit margins; Moreover, downstream spot procurement intentions are not strong, and holding companies are delivering more contract orders. The overall market situation is weak and stagnant, and major players continue to pay attention to the impact of changes in supply and demand. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

According to future predictions, as maintenance equipment is gradually restarted, the supply of goods in the market will increase, and the support from the supply side will weaken. As the PTMEG device restarts and new production capacity is put into operation downstream, the amount of raw material digestion also increases. But supply and demand pressures still exist. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market is mainly weak.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic ethanol market in May first rose and then fell. From May 1st to 31st, the average price of domestic ethanol producers first increased from 6012 yuan/ton and then dropped to 5987 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.42% during the cycle and a maximum amplitude of 1.57%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.28%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic ethanol market rebounded slightly, and it was difficult to find logistics vehicles before the holiday, resulting in an increase in shipping costs. Some factories have raised their prices and shown a strong willingness to ship. In mid month, the domestic ethanol market saw a narrow rise with slight regional differences. Individual factories have seen significant price increases, with an increase in maintenance equipment and a decrease in supply, providing support for the mentality of all parties. However, considering the weak demand and weak enthusiasm for receiving new orders, downstream companies continue to be cautious. In the latter half of the month, the domestic ethanol market rebounded, with some regions pulling up in the early stage. However, the actual signing of orders was not ideal, and demand was not smooth in following orders, putting pressure on high priced transactions. With the increase of market inventory, the ethanol market has returned to a weak position.

On the cost side, with the support of enterprise price hikes and replenishment, there is still some room for price recovery in the domestic corn market. Overall, the supply and demand of the domestic corn market remain stable in the short term, with imported corn and its substitutes arriving in ports one after another. Downstream demand for corn continues to be weak, and the price of new season wheat in Linchi is opening low and closing low, playing a long short game. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; Less than 40% of construction in East China has started; About 80% of the construction in Northeast China has started; The operating rate in southern and southwestern regions is about 20%. All Jixian devices have been shut down, and after merging, they will be replaced for maintenance; The extended Yushen device has officially entered shutdown; Anhui Carbon Xin restarted on May 20th. The supply side of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the demand for Baijiu continues to be weak, with limited efforts to boost the market; The market for chemical ethyl ester procurement is smooth, with a focus on price reduction procurement; Methyl ethyl ester production is stable with little fluctuation. Short term ethanol demand is affected by bearish factors.

In the future, it is predicted that at present, the cost side and the supply side are supported by favorable factors, Baijiu and chemical procurement are not good, and the receiving price has declined month on month. Ethanol analysts from the Supply and Demand Game Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market will mainly consolidate.