This week, the epoxy chloropropane market has maintained its upward momentum. At present, there is a shortage of spot goods in the market, and supply remains tight. After the price increase, low-priced spot goods are difficult to find, and there has been a decrease in trading orders in the market, with a focus on purchasing small orders for essential needs. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of November 15th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 8875 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.9% compared to the beginning of this month (8625 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors: On the raw material side, there has been a significant increase in the market price of raw material propylene recently, and the supply is tight, resulting in an increase in the production cost of epichlorohydrin. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 15th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6770.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.22% compared to the beginning of this month (6785.75 yuan/ton).

Equipment situation: In early October, Jiangsu Haixing Chemical, a leading enterprise in epoxy chloropropane production, stopped maintenance of its 130000 tons/year propylene method epoxy chloropropane unit.

Downstream demand side: The downstream epoxy resin demand is mainly based on small orders, and the raw material side continues to rise. The cost of epoxy resin is supported, and suppliers are cautious in purchasing, resulting in low enthusiasm for inquiries.

Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the cost side price will rise, the supply will be insufficient, downstream demand will be the main source, new orders will be insufficient, and raw materials will be purchased cautiously. In addition, leading enterprises will stop for maintenance, and the market supply will be tight. It is expected that the epoxy chloropropane market may have a slight increase in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in market prices.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone type titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market has been declining this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market was 15316.67 yuan/ton, and the average price of titanium dioxide over the weekend was 15166.67 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.98%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market is trending downwards this week. Internationally, due to the impact of anti-dumping tariffs, some export orders have been temporarily suspended from shipment. The domestic market is currently in a low season, and the demand for titanium dioxide continues to be sluggish. Enterprises face significant shipping pressure, with some experiencing a decline in new order prices of 100-200 yuan/ton to promote inventory reduction. Due to inspections by environmental protection groups, some companies have started to reduce or shut down production. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid method pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 14500-15900 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 13200-13500 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region is running weakly. At present, the market is weak, the downstream purchasing atmosphere is average, and the market for titanium dioxide enterprises is sluggish. As of now, the price of 38-42 grade titanium ore without tax is around 1480-1530 yuan/ton, the price of 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2050-2120 yuan/ton, and the price of 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2250-2350 yuan/ton. In the short term, downstream markets are mostly observing, and the price of Panxi titanium concentrate continues to be weak. The specific transaction price will be discussed on a case by case basis.

3、 Future forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market has fallen this week, with light trading on the market, so it is advisable to be cautious and wait. Overall, downstream market demand is weak, and titanium dioxide companies face significant shipping pressure. It is expected that the market will operate weakly and steadily in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated one by one.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this month (10.1-10.31), with an average market price of 257560 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 253660 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.51%.

The tin price showed an upward trend in the first half of this month, followed by a range oscillation, and then rebounded in the second half.

In October, the Wa State of Myanmar issued a notice regarding the mining end. Detailed explanation: Companies applying for exploration and mining licenses, as well as factory operation licenses, must complete the payment within the prescribed time. Otherwise, the company’s application will be cancelled and the relevant mining rights and materials will be reclaimed by the Industrial and Mining Bureau for re planning. As a result, the expectation of resuming production in the Wa State of Myanmar continues to increase, but considering the specific timeline of the process, the probability of resuming production within this year is relatively low, and may be reflected in next year. Supported by the continued shortage of raw materials, tin prices showed an upward trend in the first half of the month.

On the refining end, with the completion of maintenance for large domestic refineries in October, it is expected that production will steadily rebound this month. The operating rate of tin ingots in Yunnan and Jiangxi has significantly returned to normal levels. The export of Indonesian tin ingots continues to recover, and it is expected that they will continue to flow into the domestic market. The import volume of domestic tin ingots in the second half of the year will significantly increase compared to the previous year. The expected increase in accumulated inventory has led to a rebound in tin prices.

On the demand side, there is differentiation in performance. The production of tin solder has improved compared to last month, but overall it is still at a low level. The semiconductor industry is still in the stage of recovery, with sales growth continuing to rebound; The performance in the photovoltaic field remains sluggish.

Overall, there are many uncertain factors at present, but the strengthening of the non-ferrous sector in the short term may drive up tin prices. The recovery of raw material supply poses resistance to the rise in tin prices. At present, it still maintains a range oscillation trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline in October 2024. From October 1st to 30th, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 13700 yuan/ton to 12325 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 10.04% during the period.

In the first half of the month: This cycle coincides with the National Day holiday, and the overall butadiene market is weak. The market trend before the holiday is relatively weak, and downstream purchasing intentions are more cautious, resulting in an overall decline in prices. After the holiday, the opening of the market was affected by the strengthening of the downstream synthetic rubber market, and spot market prices slightly increased. However, due to insufficient follow-up of downstream demand, the market’s wait-and-see atmosphere gradually emerged, and the fundamentals weakened, causing the market to fall back. At the same time, due to the recent loose market supply, it has dragged down the mentality of holders and led to a wide decline in market prices.

Mid month: The domestic butadiene market continued to decline. Although there was some demand for replenishment after the holiday, which boosted the market, the downstream synthetic rubber market weakened, dragging down market purchasing sentiment and lacking demand support. The spot market sentiment was weak, and prices generally declined. On the supply side, some shipments from the East China region arrived at the port this week, and there are expectations of loose supply in the market. Downstream pressure on prices is gradually rising, and the overall market atmosphere is weak.

Late of the month: The domestic butadiene market continues to decline, and the downstream synthetic rubber futures market has a weak trend, which has a weak impact on the spot market mentality. The downstream has a strong wait-and-see attitude and lacks demand support. The butadiene market has a weak trend this week.

Cost aspect: The international oil price market rose first and then fell during this cycle, with international crude oil futures closing down as of October 29th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States is $67.21 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $70.73 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated at high levels, which is partly due to the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East. This news is positive for international oil prices. On the other hand, the supply of crude oil remains tight. The OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. The supply shortage still exists, and the international crude oil price trend is rising. In addition, the local economy in Asia has improved, and the market’s panic on demand has eased, boosting the international oil market. The crude oil market is mainly volatile.

Supply side: The comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much recently, and the overall supply is relatively stable.

On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for butadiene rubber continued to decline in October. As the price of raw material butadiene continued to fall, the cost support for butadiene rubber weakened; Shunding rubber production is still at a low level; The downstream tires shall be adjusted when starting. Shunding rubber suppliers have lowered their supply prices, and merchants have adjusted their offers. As of October 30th, the mainstream prices for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 15500~15750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500-600 yuan/ton compared to the same period last month.

External market: The butadiene market experienced a wide decline in October, with FOB prices in South Korea ranging from $1445 to $1455 per ton as of October 29th, a decrease of $100 per ton during the period; China CFR reported 1460-1470 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 125 US dollars/ton during the cycle; European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at $1135-1145/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1035-1045 euros/ton, a decrease of 70 euros/ton during the cycle.

Market forecast: Due to the increase in supply in the near future, the overall atmosphere of the spot market is weak, and port cargo sources have continued to accumulate, resulting in loose market supply. In terms of demand, the overall downstream synthetic rubber market has been weak in recent times, providing essential support for the butadiene market. However, overall, the market atmosphere is still relatively weak due to the impact of loose supply, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On October 28th, the average market price was 7311.33 yuan/ton.

Analysis: Today, the focus of the domestic pure benzene market is downward. Although the arrival of the ship at the port has been delayed and the port inventory has decreased compared to the previous period, both buyers and sellers are cautious and watching, and market transactions are mainly based on monthly swaps. Shandong’s local refineries offer discounts and promotions, but overall transaction pressure remains high. It is expected that the pure benzene market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

This week (October 21-25), the upstream raw material trend is strong, cost support is stable, adhesive short fiber shipments are stable, market prices are stable, and factories are mainly responsible for stable delivery and order execution. At present, the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber device remains stable with little change, and the supply is still acceptable. However, the inventory is low and there is no sales pressure at the moment. Downstream cotton yarn procurement is still mainly based on essential needs.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 25th, the domestic factory price of 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13820 yuan/ton, and the price remains stable.

Stable support of raw materials

This week (October 21-25), the market for the main raw material of viscose staple fiber, dissolution slurry, has been consolidating at a high level, with average cost support. Currently, domestic dissolution slurry prices are around 7800 yuan/ton. The price quotation for imported broad-leaved soluble pulp is around 960 US dollars per ton, while the price for coniferous soluble pulp remains around 1040 US dollars per ton.

Low inventory level

Most of the adhesive short fiber market devices are operating stably, with high market supply and a daily operating rate of around 85.8% in the industry. Due to the increase in downstream demand, the overall inventory level of the adhesive short fiber market continues to decline and is at a low level. Some models in the market are experiencing tight shipments, and there is still positive support from the supply side.

Demand side support is still limited

The downstream cotton yarn market has a flat trading atmosphere and stable prices. As of October 25th, the average factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) is 17700 yuan/ton. Although the demand in the terminal market is still weak, the downstream vortex spinning market equipment continues to increase, and yarn mills are holding onto the demand for essential orders, resulting in an increase in demand for adhesive short fibers. However, the new round of orders in the market is still expected to last for about a month, with limited support from the demand side.

Future forecast

The upstream raw material market prices may continue to remain firm and stable, with tight on-site supply as the main factor. Downstream yarn factories will follow up as needed, and the market will enter a new round of order delivery period. Many adhesive short fiber manufacturers will queue up to ship, and coupled with the lack of significant improvement in the end market, it may be difficult for the demand side to improve. Therefore, it is expected that the demand side of adhesive short fiber will perform averagely in the later stage. Business analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will maintain stable prices in the short term, with limited price fluctuations, and prices are expected to be between 13700-13900 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the 21st, the price center of polyester filament shifted downward. On October 21st, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, POY (150D/48F), quoted between 7200-7350 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity), quoted between 8700-9100 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F), quoted between 7850-7950 yuan/ton. In terms of cost, the crude oil market has recently experienced a decline in crude oil prices, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is controllable. In addition, the future demand for crude oil market is worrying, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market; However, the recent decline in US crude oil inventories still provides support for the crude oil market, and overall, crude oil market prices are expected to slightly decrease. Under the traditional peak season, the demand for PTA remains stable. However, the market is concerned about the demand outlook, with weak cost support and many external instability factors. The market lacks directional driving force. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of October 20th, the average spot price of PTA in the East China region was 4912 yuan per ton, a decrease of more than 200 yuan per ton compared to October 11th. The weakening of cost support and the increase in PTA supply and demand are the main reasons for the price decline. The short-term PTA spot market is mainly consolidating weakly. In terms of supply and demand, the demand remains stable during the traditional peak season. With the decline in raw material costs, the terminal market is affected by the mentality of “buying up, not buying down”, and the purchasing willingness is generally low. Confidence in the subsequent market also appears relatively insufficient. Overall, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the willingness of filament enterprises to ship still exists, and it is expected that the filament market prices will remain stable and fluctuate in the short term. In the game of cost and supply and demand, it is necessary to pay attention to the trend of the raw material market and the downstream order placement situation in the future.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on October 18th, the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 was based on 12020 yuan/ton. Compared with October 14th, the price remained stable. Compared with October 1st, the price increased by 60 yuan/ton. Compared with September 1st (the market price of silicon metal # 441 was 11980 yuan/ton), the price increased by 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.33%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that this week (October 14-1018), the overall market situation of domestic silicon metal # 441 showed a consolidation and operation, with little fluctuation in the overall market, and the market has stabilized. On October 18th, the market price reference for metal silicon # 441 in East China was 11900-12000 yuan/ton, and the market price reference for metal silicon # 441 in Kunming was 12100-12200 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the spot market price of silicon metal supply side is basically stable, and the overall demand for silicon metal downstream is mainly based on on-demand procurement. Although downstream users have weak purchasing intentions, the quotes of silicon companies on the supply side are mostly stable and firm, with weak willingness to lower prices. The supply and demand transmission of silicon metal is clearly deadlocked.

In terms of raw materials: Currently, the overall market price of raw silica remains stable, with relatively loose supply. It is heard that silicon companies in the southwest region have plans to shut down production this month, and the demand for silica may decrease in the future. At present, the reference ex factory price for high-grade silica ore in Jiangxi is around 440-460 yuan/ton, the reference ex factory price for high-grade silica ore in Inner Mongolia is around 370-390 yuan/ton, and the reference ex factory price for high-grade silica ore in Hubei is 420-470 yuan/ton.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, and the mentality of market participants is average. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from October 8th to 12th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 7400 yuan/ton to 7342 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 31.28%. The capacity utilization rate of the BDO industry remains low, the market supply of goods is tight, and online listing sales are relatively high, indicating a willingness of suppliers to keep prices. Downstream production has increased, but multiple contract orders are being followed up, and spot purchases are being cautious. The supply-demand game continues, and the domestic BDO market is deadlocked.

On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of the BDO industry has dropped below 50%; Some devices have also released news of maintenance and replacement in late October, and short-term supply side support continues. And within the week, Dongjing Biotechnology’s online listing sales were relatively high, and the supplier’s mentality of being reluctant to sell at low prices continued, which is favorable for the market’s supply of goods.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market has once again risen. Recently, with the rise in calcium carbide prices, the enthusiasm of calcium carbide production enterprises to start production has increased, the number of power transmission devices has increased, and some calcium carbide furnaces have completed maintenance, resulting in an increase in calcium carbide supply. Raw material methanol: The market price of methanol fluctuates at a relatively high level. As of 3:00 pm on October 12th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2551 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol have both increased, and the favorable factors affecting BDO costs have strengthened.

On the demand side, with the increase in the load of PTMEG, PBT, PBAT, and PU pulp industries, the overall downstream digestion of raw materials has increased, but the loss of profits in multiple industries has suppressed raw material prices. The impact of BDO demand remains to be seen.

In the future market forecast, multiple sets of equipment are still under maintenance and load reduction, and there is no increase in new production capacity. The tight market supply continues to support the mentality of suppliers to sell at low prices. The overall production of downstream industries has increased, leading to an increase in the digestion of raw materials. However, many downstream industries are experiencing losses and are resistant to high priced raw materials, suppressing market trends.. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market is mainly in a stalemate and wait-and-see state.

The construction peak season for the Golden September and Silver October has already passed halfway, but there is no positive impact on supply, demand, and cost, leading to an overall decline in the asphalt market. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price in Shandong region was 3520 yuan/ton on September 1st, and dropped to 3390 yuan/ton on September 30th, a decrease of 3.69%.

The cost side is running at a low level, and the crude oil trend in September has significantly declined. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has affected the trend of the crude oil market, and the easing of the situation at the beginning of the month has led to a significant decline in the crude oil market; Since September, there have been concerns about the future demand for crude oil market, which has led to a continuous decline in the oil market; Finally, due to the rise in US crude oil inventories and negative factors, the overall crude oil market prices have significantly decreased

From a supply side perspective, the overall operating rate of the industry is poor, with operating rates at a relatively low level in the past five years. It is expected that the total asphalt production will increase in October, with an estimated output of 2.32 million tons, an increase of 300000 tons compared to the previous month.

September is the traditional peak season, and on the demand side, due to factors such as funding and weather, demand is not as good as in previous years. It is expected that a cold air will hit in the future, causing some areas to rush to work due to a decrease in temperature. However, due to insufficient infrastructure funds and increased demand for advance payments, asphalt stocking is hindered under financial pressure. If the demand for asphalt cannot further increase in October, there will be significant pressure to reduce inventory after the holiday.

From the perspective of Business Society, paying attention to the destocking situation of asphalt after the holiday, the overall asphalt market trading in October is expected to improve.