Price trend in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of cryolite in May remained stable and increased. As of May 31st, the average market price in Henan Province was 7850 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton compared to the initial price of 7825 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%.

In May, the domestic cryolite market was observed and sorted out. During the month, the prices of cryolite enterprises remained stable and there were slight fluctuations. Some enterprises in Henan region slightly increased their prices based on their own shipment situation. The prices of raw materials continued to be high, and upstream cost support was good. The production of cryolite enterprises was under pressure, and the market quotation was stabilizing. The enthusiasm for downstream market entry on the demand side was average, and the demand for goods was followed up according to demand. The shipment of cryolite enterprises was acceptable, and the market situation was mainly on a wait-and-see basis.

Analysis of upstream and downstream market conditions

On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite market slightly increased in May, with low operating rates of mining enterprises and tight spot performance of fluorite. The price of fluorite remained high, while the demand side hydrofluoric acid market declined, which had a negative impact on the fluorite market. The price increase of fluorite was limited, and as of the end of the month, the average price of fluorite was 3143.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.24% compared to the beginning price of 3075.00 yuan/ton.

The downstream aluminum market fluctuated widely in May, with an average price of 18290.00 yuan/ton in the East China market for domestic aluminum ingots at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.08% compared to the average price of 18490.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In May, there was a significant reduction in electrolytic aluminum inventory, resulting in poor end market consumption, while domestic aluminum production increased. Under the supply and demand game, the aluminum market fluctuated and operated.

Future Market Forecast

The equipment of the cryolite enterprise is operating normally, with tight raw materials and good cost support. The cryolite enterprise is actively shipping, and downstream demand is average. Purchasing in the market is mainly based on demand, with insufficient demand benefits. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the cryolite market will remain stagnant in the future.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8350 yuan/ton on May 1, and the average price on May 30 was 8014 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 4.02% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 8725 yuan/ton on May 1st, and 8107 yuan/ton on May 30th, with a decrease of 7.08% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 9090 yuan/ton on May 1st, and the average price on May 30th was 8937 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.68% during the period.

The focus of polyethylene quotation in May continues to shift downwards. In May, petrochemical companies continuously lowered their prices, and traders had a poor mentality, leading them to lower their prices. There are many polyethylene parking inspections in China, and the supply pressure has been alleviated. Agricultural film is in the off-season of demand, with an increase in shutdown and maintenance devices. Although some factories are buying at low prices, the market demand boost is limited. In terms of pipes, the operating rate of enterprises has shown a downward trend, and market transactions are not good.

The second quarter is a concentrated period for device maintenance, and the domestic polyethylene supply pressure has eased. However, agricultural film is in the traditional off-season, with the focus of spot prices constantly shifting downwards and the demand side taking the lead. It is expected that polyethylene may be mainly reduced in a weak position.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic MTBE market fluctuates significantly. From May 1st to 29th, the price of MTBE remained at 7487 yuan/ton, with a flat increase or decrease of% during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 5.10% and a year-on-year increase of 0.82%.

At the beginning of the month, after the May Day holiday, international crude oil prices fell broadly. Although multiple MTBE units were shut down for maintenance and resource supply decreased, demand was sluggish and the decline in the MTBE market intensified. In mid month, news was released last weekend that products such as isooctane, which are also used for blending oil, will be subject to consumption tax, promoting production enterprises to significantly increase their factory quotations. At the same time, MTBE saw a significant increase compared to other gasoline raw materials, while gasoline saw limited growth. As news gradually digested and terminals resisted high prices, manufacturers moderately increased their profit margins in the second half of the week, leading to a slight price correction. In the latter half of the month, as MTBE prices fell to a certain low point and downstream companies entered the market on dips, MTBE manufacturers’ profit margins slowed down, and MTBE growth was around 200-300 yuan/ton.

On the cost side, the debt problem of the United States remains unresolved. Recently, the oil market still has pressure from the macro side, but the supply and demand side is relatively good. First, the North American driving season is coming, and the demand for refined oil products is rising. Second, OPEC+production is expected to tighten. It is expected that the oil price will probably consolidate upward and recover lost ground. The domestic oil industry chain MTBE product market has been affected by the high level of market consolidation.

On the demand side, crude oil prices have fluctuated and decreased since May, which has affected the domestic refined oil market and put pressure on it. The gasoline market has declined, but the price of MTBE is on the high side. As businesses adjust the proportion of MTBE added to gasoline, demand for MTBE is limited. The demand side for MTBE is weak.

On the enterprise side, MTBE production continues to decline, with a positive impact on the supply side.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on May 26th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $26.5 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at $976.49- $978.49 per ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $11/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $1017.74- $1018.24/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $45.86 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf price closed at $994.27-994.63 per ton (280.08-280.18 cents per gallon).

According to future forecasts, compared to other gasoline raw materials, MTBE prices are still relatively high, with end users maintaining strong demand and manufacturers increasing inventory. MTBE analysts from the business company believe that the domestic MTBE market is mainly volatile in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 26th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 19000.00 yuan/ton, which was generally unchanged from the beginning of the month and increased by 17.14% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 26th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25166.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66% compared to the beginning of the month price of 25333.33 yuan/ton, and an increase of 18.9% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

As of May 26, the domestic chloroform price continued to decline in a weak way, falling 6.38% in the month, hydrofluoric acid price fell 2.5% in the month, and the cost of raw materials continued to be weak. Supported by the peak season, the overall price of enterprises was stable, and the domestic R22 market price was stable this week.

As of May 26th, the overall price of trichloroethylene in China remained relatively low and stable, while the price of hydrofluoric acid fell by 2.50% during the month. The overall raw material cost was weak, and the lower cost had a certain inhibitory effect on the domestic R134a price. Supported by demand expectations, the company’s quotation this week was temporarily stable.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid continues to operate at the bottom, and the continuous low cost of raw materials will have a certain suppression on the domestic refrigerant prices in the future.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business Society believe that the cost of raw materials continues to be weak, and under cost suppression, the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will be under pressure in the short term, with overall stable to weak operation being the main focus.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market this week has an upward focus. The average price of yellow phosphorus last Thursday was 20000 yuan/ton, and this Thursday was 20900 yuan/ton. The price has increased by 4.5% within the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market stopped falling and picked up, with the market price focus rising. At present, the overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus is still average, and the price of yellow phosphorus in the market is tentatively increasing. The cost pressure of yellow phosphorus manufacturers is relatively high, and the price is mainly high. We will not provide external quotations for the time being, and will discuss the actual order in detail. Downstream procurement is relatively cautious. As of now, the mainstream market quotation is around 20800-21000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, the domestic phosphate ore market has been declining this week. As of May 19, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China last Thursday was 1066 yuan/ton, while this Thursday’s average price was 1030 yuan/ton. The price was reduced by 3.38% during the week. At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is light, and the mentality of the industry is average. The overall domestic phosphate ore market is weak and declining, and the market focus is generally downward.

In terms of coke, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average market price of coke this week was 1846 yuan/ton. The coke market is currently operating steadily, with some companies increasing their prices, but downstream companies have not responded yet. At present, the construction of coking enterprises has declined, and some enterprises have increased their reluctance to sell. Downstream steel mills have slightly recovered their procurement.

As for phosphoric acid, the price of phosphoric acid market rose sharply this week. Last Thursday, the average price of phosphoric acid was 5890 yuan/ton, while this Thursday’s average price was 5910 yuan/ton. During the week, the price increased by 0.34%. At present, the demand in the phosphoric acid market is average, with phosphoric acid enterprises mainly operating at high prices, and market trading is still relatively light. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid market will fluctuate slightly in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that currently, upstream phosphate rock prices are downward, coke prices are temporarily stable, and cost support is average. The downstream phosphoric acid market rebounded and increased, but market trading remained relatively light. Overall, the upstream and downstream markets are showing a cautious wait-and-see trend. It is expected that in the short term, yellow phosphorus prices will mainly increase, and attention will be paid to changes in the news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of 1 # electrolytic manganese rose slightly this week (May 12 to May 19). The spot market price in East China was 16325 yuan/ton on May 1 and 16400 yuan/ton on May 15, up 0.46%.

In terms of manganese ore: The decline in manganese ore prices has slowed down this week, and downstream restocking inquiries have increased, leading to an improvement in manganese ore transactions; With the gradual sale of low-priced goods in the early stage, the market power gradually concentrates, and the source of low-priced goods decreases, showing a trend of stopping the decline in prices. As of May 19th, Tianjin Port’s semi carbonated carbon dioxide costs 31-31.5 yuan/ton, Australia’s 40 40.5 yuan/ton, and Gabon’s 37.3 yuan/ton; Qinzhou Port Macao Block is priced at 40.5 yuan/ton, Gabon is priced at 37 yuan/ton, and South African semi carbonated carbon is priced at 30.8 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that prices have been declining for 5 consecutive months since December 2022, and have slightly increased after temporarily stabilizing for 4 consecutive weeks.

In this cycle, the market price of electrolytic manganese rose slightly, with the mainstream price of 14900-15000 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton higher than the low market price last week. In the first half of this week, boosted by the expected tightening of supply, market trading slightly improved. Later, as the news was digested and downstream demand was weak, market trading declined in the later stage. There has been no significant change in supply and demand. The overall downstream demand is operating at a low level, with a strong game mentality between the supply and demand sides, and a strong market wait-and-see atmosphere. The recent stable performance of steel recruitment has also boosted market sentiment. The FOB price ranges from $2150 to $2200 per ton, with a slight increase of $30 per ton. Overall, Business Society predicts that the market is expected to have a tight supply and a strong reluctance to sell, but downstream demand is limited, making it difficult to have significant upward potential. It is expected that the trend will be mainly stable, moderate, and strong in the future, and we are waiting for more guidance on steel bidding prices.

This week, the bidding process for steel mills has been slow, with some of the silicon and manganese bidding prices for steel mills that had previously been offered continuously lowering. Without obvious positive market factors to support, in order to stimulate transactions, some holding companies have increased their willingness to sell at lower prices. However, downstream purchasing customers’ inquiry activity has not shown a significant improvement, and the market’s psychological price level is not consistent. Under the game, the spot price of silicon and manganese continues to weaken slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market quotation for silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 6800-6900 yuan/ton on May 19th, with an average market price of 6883 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67% compared to the beginning of the week.

Related data:

According to customs data, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) in April 2023 was approximately 20600.3 tons, a decrease of 38.42% compared to the previous month; The total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) in April 2023 is approximately 47%

Price trend

Last week, the domestic POM market was negative, with a significant drop in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 22, the average factory price of domestic POM was 12950.00 yuan/ton, a 2.63% decrease from the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

Recently, the price of formaldehyde market in Shandong has fluctuated and dropped. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent market of formaldehyde mainly fluctuates slightly, and the market fell last week. The price of raw material methanol fluctuated slightly, with moderate support for formaldehyde. Downstream panel factories started smoothly, with moderate demand support on the market. Market trading sentiment was poor, and the formaldehyde market declined.

On the supply side:

The high operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has decreased, with some enterprises undergoing maintenance in the early stage, and the industry load has decreased to about 79%. The situation of high load has eased narrowly, but most enterprises’ inventory has not decreased but increased, and processing profits have gradually decreased.

In terms of demand:

At present, POM terminal enterprises have weak stocking enthusiasm, low operating rates, poor consumption release, and limited impact on spot prices. Traders lack confidence and are forced to lower prices to complete tasks. Buyers tend to buy up rather than down, with a wait-and-see mentality. The actual order is light and tends towards a single negotiation.

Future Market Forecast

Last week, the POM market fell again. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants is still acceptable, but there are multiple companies resuming work in the later stage, with expectations of rising supply. In addition, the industry’s inventory pressure continues to increase, and suppliers are unable to support spot goods. The demand side enterprises just need to replenish less, and some downstream operating rates are low, resulting in few actual transactions. Based on various bearish and bearish factors, it is predicted that the POM market may continue to decline in the short term.

The focus of MIBK market rebounded during the week. According to the market analysis system of the business community, as of May 19, the market price in East China was 12100-12400 yuan/ton, up 500-700 yuan/ton during the week, up 5.75%

The decline in operating rates has boosted the market’s upward trend.

During the week, the industry’s operating rate declined, and companies had a positive attitude, driving up prices.

Long term decline, low inventory of manufacturers, and limited trading resources for traders.

The MIBK market has entered a downward trend since early February, bottoming out in May and falling to 11500-11600 yuan/ton. Manufacturers are clearing inventory at low prices, reducing pressure, and traders are also actively shipping. The mentality of enterprises has improved, and prices have been pushed up.

The terminal just needs to follow up, and the procurement pace has not significantly improved, but the market has widened and there is a mentality of speculation in the market.

During the week, the MIBK market was on the rise, with a tight supply of spot resources. Sellers still had a competitive attitude, and previously, traders had high inventory costs for imported resources and had little intention of lowering prices. However, terminal demand remained the main focus, with limited future growth. The focus is on downstream procurement.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of hydrochloric acid in China has significantly decreased this week, with the average market price dropping from 195.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 175.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 10.26%. Weekend prices fell 41.67% year-on-year. On May 15th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 46.05, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 66.60% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 156.12% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient upstream support, weakened downstream procurement

From the supply side, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid market fell slightly this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with average cost support. The price of downstream polyaluminum chloride market fell slightly, from 1788.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1781.25 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 0.42%. Weekend prices fell by 21.49% year-on-year; The market price of ammonium chloride fell sharply, from 795.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 692.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 12.89%. Overall, upstream support is insufficient and downstream demand is weakening.

Future Market Forecast

In the middle and last ten days of May, the market price of hydrochloric acid dropped mainly due to narrow fluctuations. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with insufficient cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride markets have slightly declined, and downstream purchasing willingness is weak. Analysts from Business Society believe that hydrochloric acid has been experiencing a slight fluctuation and decline in recent times.

Aluminum fluoride prices fluctuate and rise this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 15th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 9825 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.51% compared to the price of 9775 yuan/ton on May 7th. Cost increases and demand rebounds, with aluminum fluoride prices fluctuating and rising this week.

Raw material prices fluctuate and rise this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 15th, the price of fluorite was 3137.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.40% compared to May 7th, when the price of fluorite was 3125 yuan/ton; As of May 15th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 10114.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14% compared to the price of hydrofluoric acid on May 7th, which was 10128.57 yuan/ton. The price of fluorite has fluctuated and increased, while the price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly decreased. The cost of aluminum fluoride has increased, and the support for the increase in aluminum fluoride still exists.

Ice crystal prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 15th, the price of cryolite was 7850 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32% compared to the price of cryolite on May 7th, which was 7825 yuan/ton. The price of cryolite has increased, downstream demand has rebounded, and demand for aluminum fluoride has increased, providing greater support for the rise in aluminum fluoride.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry of the Business Society believe that this week, the raw material fluorite fluctuated and increased, the price of hydrofluoric acid stabilized, and the cost of fluoride aluminum raw materials fluctuated and increased; The price of cryolite has increased, and the demand for aluminum fluoride has rebounded. In the future, the cost of aluminum fluoride has risen, and demand has rebounded. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will slightly increase in the future.