According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the industrial grade first class potassium nitrate in Shanxi was reported at 5425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 5375 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.92% and a month on month decrease of 3.59%. The current price has decreased by 26.87% compared to last year.

potassium nitrate

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market fluctuated and fell. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent potassium nitrate market has fluctuated slightly, and the market has continued to decline this week. Domestic potassium manufacturers have sufficient supply, and ports are still arriving at new ships, causing prices to decline. The potassium nitrate market is trading poorly, with poor sales and a weak decline in the market. According to statistics from Business Society, mainstream domestic manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 5200-5700 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), and the prices vary depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, there has been insufficient demand in the international potassium chloride market, and prices have shown a downward trend. The domestic spot market for potassium chloride has average trading volume, and the price of potassium chloride has slightly fluctuated and decreased. It is expected that the potassium chloride market will consolidate at a high level in the future.

Recently, there has been a large supply of potassium chloride, and the market has been declining, with poor cost support. Downstream purchases remain in demand, and it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term. The long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 11th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises in China was 263750.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.65% compared to Monday’s price.

The domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market rose this week (5.8-5.11). Recently, the upstream lithium carbonate market has continued to rise, gradually increasing support for the lithium hydroxide market. In addition, downstream demand has improved, and the market has a positive attitude towards price. The focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market has risen.

As for upstream lithium carbonate, according to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the market price of lithium carbonate has risen recently. On May 10, the reference price of lithium carbonate industrial grade was 209000.00, up 20.11% from May 1 (174000.00); On May 10th, the reference price for lithium carbonate battery grade was 235000.00, an increase of 17.5% compared to May 1st (200000.00).

Lithium hydroxide analysts from Business Society believe that the recent strong cost support in the lithium hydroxide market has boosted the mindset of businesses, and the supply and demand support is still acceptable. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may operate stronger, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

After the May Day holiday, the price trend of domestic fluorite has increased. As of the 6th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3125 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.63% compared to the price of 3075 yuan/ton on the 1st. However, the tight spot supply of fluorite has not improved, and the price of fluorite is “outstanding”.

Supply side: Difficulty in starting mining, shortage of fluorite in stock

Recently, the operating rate of domestic fluorite enterprises is relatively low, and outdated mines will continue to be phased out. In terms of adding new mines, mineral investigation work is still facing many difficulties. Mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and the operation of fluorite mines is severely insufficient. In addition, in some areas, non-metallic mine accidents have occurred, and the requirements of environmental protection and emergency management departments have become stricter. The difficulty of mine operation has increased, and domestic fluorite raw materials are tightening. The operation of fluorite flotation devices is limited, and the price trend of fluorite has slightly increased in May.

On the demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid is declining, and the refrigerant market is not good

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid has declined, with the mainstream price negotiated by various regions in China ranging from 10000 to 10400 yuan/ton. Recently, some units are still in shutdown, but the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, and the order situation of manufacturers for hydrofluoric acid is weak. As a result, the market trend of hydrofluoric acid has declined. Recently, the price of fluorite has risen, and downstream demand is poor. The dual impact has led to serious losses for hydrofluoric acid production enterprises.

The market of downstream refrigerant products at the terminal has slightly declined, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. Recently, there has been sufficient refrigerant supply, which has led to a slight decrease in the price of domestic refrigerant R22. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and inventory is within a reasonable range. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price trend of R134a is declining. Currently, on-demand procurement is the main trend, while downstream enterprises are not operating high. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the actual transaction situation is light. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 25000-25500 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not resumed production. The demand orders are still small, and the market is stagnant and declining. Overall, the refrigerant market is not good, and the operating rate is less than 30%, Due to the scarcity of upstream raw material procurement, the growth of the raw material fluorite market has been somewhat suppressed.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry in the downstream, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, has been growing in demand in emerging fields. It is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, and in fields such as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite anode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand of new energy and semiconductor, the fluorite market has been supported to some extent.

Future market forecast: In the near future, the supply of raw material fluorite ore is tight, fluorite production is limited, and spot supply is tight. However, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is lower, and the demand of refrigerant industry is not significantly improved. Under the long short game, Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, believes that the fluorite price will remain temporarily stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 28th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 20500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.60% from the beginning of the month’s price of 20833.33 yuan/ton, and an increase of 16.04% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 28th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25333.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65% from the beginning of the month’s price of 25500.00 yuan/ton, and an increase of 4.83% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In April, the domestic price of chloroform continued to decline, with a sharp decline of 11.21% in the month as a whole, and the price of hydrofluoric acid rebounded slightly from the bottom, with an overall increase of 4.81% in the month. In general, the price of R22 upstream raw materials continued to decline, and under the pressure of raw material costs, the domestic price of R22 continued to operate under pressure in April. Supported by the reduction of domestic R22 production quota in 2023 and the demand in the peak season, the overall decline space of domestic R22 market price in April was limited.

In April, the domestic price of trichloroethylene continued to decline, with an overall significant drop of over 10% at the end of the month. The price of hydrofluoric acid rebounded slightly from the bottom, rising by 4.81% within the month. Overall, the upstream raw material cost price of R134a still showed a weak downward trend, and under cost suppression, the overall pressure on the domestic R134a price in April was weak and adjusted.

In terms of raw materials, on the whole, although the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid rebounded from the bottom in April, the overall price was still at a low level, and the cost of raw materials continued to fluctuate at a low level. In the future, the price of domestic refrigerant market could not keep rising.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business Society believe that the cost of raw materials continues to decline, and under cost suppression, it is expected that the domestic prices of R22 and R134a will decline to varying degrees in May. Supported by low inventory and the gradual recovery of demand for hot refrigerants due to weather conditions, the overall price decline space for domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a in May is limited.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 27th, the average price of acrylic acid in the East China region was 6800.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.23% compared to the price on April 1st.

The acrylic acid market slightly declined in April. In the early days, the price of raw material propylene was narrowed, with some support from the cost side and an increase in supply side operating rates. However, downstream enterprises have low operating loads, and some are just in need of buying on dips. The market mentality is cautious, and the price center of acrylic acid has declined. In the middle of the month, the price of raw material propylene first rose and then fell, with limited cost impact. Some factories on the supply side have completed maintenance, and downstream procurement is mainly in demand. The market trading atmosphere is average, and acrylic acid companies’ prices are mainly stable, while some companies’ prices are adjusted. In the latter half of the year, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated and sorted out, with little impact on the cost side. Downstream stores were prepared according to demand before festivals, and market negotiations were mild and orderly. The price center of acrylic acid was mainly stable.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on April 26th, the reference price for propylene was 7130.60, a decrease of 0.11% compared to April 1st (7138.60).

Acrylic acid analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost support is still acceptable, with downstream inquiries and purchases mainly in demand. The market atmosphere is average, and it is expected that the acrylic acid market may be on the sidelines for consolidation in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of April 26, 2023, the domestic silicone DMC market price reference was 15080 yuan/ton, and on April 1 (the silicone DMC reference was 15760 yuan/ton), the price fell 680 yuan/ton, or 4.31%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that since April (04.1-4.27), the overall domestic silicone DMC market has shown a weak and declining trend. At the beginning of April, organic silicon DMC experienced a small stage of stocking in the downstream market. With some improvement in downstream demand, the focus of the organic silicon DMC market briefly moved upwards,. However, after the phased demand, the downstream demand for organic silicon DMC has generally returned to a cold state. Starting from April 7th, the organic silicon DMC market has experienced a continuous decline due to the cold weather. As of April 18th, the low price of the domestic organic silicon DMC market has fallen below the 15000 yuan/ton mark. Subsequently, the organic silicon DMC market started consolidation operation. On the one hand, it was the pressure of cost, and on the other hand, it was the fatigue of demand. The organic silicon DMC market had limited adjustment for rise and fall, and the overall market was stable. As of April 26, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price was around 14800-15500 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is average, and the news on the market is relatively calm. As the May Day holiday approaches, it remains to be seen whether the market can usher in a wave of price trends. The organic silicon DMC data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mostly operate steadily and slightly, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of April 25th, the price of PET water bottle level is relatively strong, with an average price of 7896.00 yuan/ton. This week, PET prices have remained stable, with no significant changes compared to the same period last week. The mainstream price is around 7800 yuan/ton, and the overall focus of market negotiations is stable.

This week, the domestic PET price has been running smoothly, with the mainstream price currently around 7800 yuan/ton. The overall market is stable and strong, and the focus of negotiations is stable. Manufacturers are actively shipping, and downstream procurement is on demand. Logistics is smooth, and manufacturers are offering discounts and orders. PET enterprise quotations include Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. at 7750 yuan/ton, Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. at 7700 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang Wankai at 7400 yuan/ton.

Rubber and Plastic Commodity Index: On April 24th, the rubber and plastic index stood at 679 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 35.94% from the cycle’s highest point of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 28.60% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate steadily in the short term.

This week (4.17-4.24), the market for butadiene rubber slightly increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 24th, the domestic price of butadiene rubber was 11340 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.70% from last Monday’s 11150 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has increased, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has strengthened compared to the previous period; During the cycle, the factory price of polybutadiene rubber supplier polybutadiene rubber increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the merchant’s quotation slightly increased. According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of April 24th, the factory price of butadiene rubber at Sinopec North China Sales Company was reported at 11100 yuan/ton. As of April 24th, Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi, Sichuan and other mainstream markets of butadiene rubber in East China reported 11200-11450 yuan/ton.

The supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is temporarily stable this week (4.17-4.24).

This week (4.17-4.24), the price of raw material butadiene has increased, and the cost support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has strengthened compared to the previous period. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 24th, the price of butadiene was 8784 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.77% from last Monday’s 8384 yuan/ton.

This week (4.17-4.24), the natural rubber market fluctuated narrowly, and the impact on butadiene rubber continued to be biased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 24th, the price of natural rubber was 11400 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.09% from last Monday’s 11410 yuan/ton, and the highest point in the cycle was 11520 yuan/ton.

This week (4.17-4.24), downstream tire production fluctuated slightly, with a strong demand for rubber support but no significant increase. It is understood that as of mid April 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.7%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.3%.

Future Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that although some butadiene rubber plants have been shut down recently, the pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber will be slightly alleviated in the short term; Downstream construction has remained stable, but due to the low price of natural rubber, the procurement of butadiene rubber is not good, and it is expected that the low price of butadiene rubber will consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 23, the average price quoted by domestic top grade DMF enterprises was 5425 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.46% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the overall market is stable and strong, with smooth shipments.

This week, the DMF trend is stable, moderate to strong, and the purchasing atmosphere is average. Currently, the mainstream price range is around 5400 yuan/ton, and the operating rate is mainly stable. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and downstream purchases are made on demand. Merchants are willing to make concessions and take orders, and shipments are normal.

Chemical Index: On April 22, the chemical index stood at 907 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 35.21% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 51.67% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, DMF will operate steadily, moderately, and strongly.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the “V” shaped trend of the 1 # tin ingot market in East China this week (4.07-4.14) was observed. On April 7th, the average market price was 196000 yuan/ton, and on April 14th, the average market price was 197160 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.59%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors, and have fallen by 11.35% in a single month since February 2023. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has been fluctuating frequently recently and the overall trend is weak.

In terms of the futures market, Shanghai Tin fell first and then rose this week. On the 13th, the US dollar index fell 0.51% to 101.01, the lowest point in nearly two months. Thursday’s data showed a slowdown in US inflation, boosting the metal market, and the metal market rose generally. As of the close on the 14th, the main 2305 contract of Shanghai Tin rose 2.52% in a single day.

Fundamentally speaking, there is not much change in domestic supply and demand at present. The mentality of high prices in smelters still exists, and the overall domestic production remains at a relatively stable level of around 60%. The supply at the mining end is still slightly tight. In terms of demand, it remains weak and there are few signs of recovery in the short term. However, recent domestic inventory has slightly declined overall, which has boosted tin prices to some extent. Overall, downstream demand is still weak, and it is expected that the overall operation of the tin market will remain weak due to the lack of actual demand support. In the short term, the impact of domestic macro factors on tin prices is still limited, and it is necessary to focus on the impact of domestic and foreign macro factors on the market.

On April 15th, the base metal index stood at 1229 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 23.95% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 91.43% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 15th week of 2023 (4.10-4.14), there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices. Among them, there was 1 commodity that increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were magnesium (25.38%), silver (4.82%), and nickel (4.53%). There are a total of 11 products with a month on month decrease, and 5 products with a decrease of over 5%, accounting for 21.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products in the decline were neodymium oxide (-8.26%), praseodymium oxide (-7.48%), and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-6.00%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.27%.