In July, the market of Nitrile rubber continued to fall slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 29th, the price was at 13800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.60% from 14025 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In July, the price of butadiene, the raw material of Nitrile rubber, rose significantly, the price of acrylonitrile rose slightly, and the cost of nitrile rubber rose to a certain extent; A small amount of downstream inquiries of Nitrile rubber, and the market transaction is generally flat; The operation of the industrial chain is mainly weak. In late July, some Nitrile rubber units of Lanhua were restarted, and the market supply was more relaxed than in the early period. As of July 29, the mainstream report of Lanhua’s nitrile 3305 market in East China was 13300~13400 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of Nandi Nitrile 1052 is 15100-15300 yuan/ton; Sibur Nitrile 3365 mainstream reported 12300~12500 yuan/ton; Shunze nitrile 3355 mainstream reported at 13700~14000 yuan/ton.

In July, the domestic Nitrile rubber plant started slightly higher, the plant of Nandi, Shunze and other enterprises operated normally, and part of the nitrile plant of Lanhua was restarted. The market resource supply increased compared with the previous period, but Jinpu plant was scheduled to be overhauled in August, when the supply of some brands in the market was expected to be tight.

In July, the price of raw material butadiene rose significantly, the price of acrylonitrile rose slightly, and the cost of Nitrile rubber rose. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 29th, the price of butadiene was 7201 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.56% from 5973 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of July 29th, the price of acrylonitrile was 8025 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.74% from 7887 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The downstream of Nitrile rubber starts at a low level, and the rubber hose industry starts at a low level. The overall downstream purchase volume is small, and the low price supply shipment is relatively smooth. The demand for Nitrile rubber is weak.

Future forecast: NBR analysts from the business community believe that the downstream demand side of Nitrile rubber is weak and the supply side is slightly increased. It is expected that the market of Nitrile rubber is weak and consolidated in the short term.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 27th, the price of DOP was 10216.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.16% compared to last week’s July 20th price of 10100 yuan/ton; Compared to July 1st, the price increased by 5.69% to 9666.67 yuan/ton. The price of raw material isooctanol has fluctuated and increased, while the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and increased. The cost of plasticizer DOP raw materials has increased, and downstream demand has rebounded. The support for plasticizer increase has increased, and the price of plasticizer DOP has fluctuated and increased.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on July 27th was 9866.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.42% compared to the price of 9633.33 yuan/ton on July 20th; Compared to 9350 yuan/ton on July 1st, it increased by 5.53%. The inventory of isooctanol is low, and the market center has shifted upwards. This week, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and increased, leading to an increase in the cost of plasticizer DOP raw materials and an increase in the price of plasticizer DOP.

The market of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuates and rises

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of July 27th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8425 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.66% compared to the 8050 yuan/ton price of phthalic anhydride on July 20th; The price of phthalic anhydride increased by 9.42% compared to 7700 yuan/ton on July 1st. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and increased, while the price of crude oil fluctuated and increased. The upstream market of phthalic anhydride rose, and the operation of phthalic anhydride enterprises was stable. The supply of phthalic anhydride was sufficient, and downstream demand for on-demand procurement stabilized. The cost of raw materials increased, and the driving force for the increase in plasticizer costs increased.

Downstream PVC market fluctuates and rises

According to the PVC product market analysis system of the Business Society, as of July 27th, the PVC quotation was 5691.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.12% compared to the fluctuating PVC price of 2698.33 yuan/ton on July 20th; Compared to July 1st, the price of PVC increased by 3.51% to 5505 yuan/ton. This week, PVC prices fluctuated and consolidated. In July, PVC prices fluctuated and increased, while crude oil prices fluctuated and increased. PVC costs also increased. The postponement of two policies in the “16 Financial Measures” helped promote the completion and delivery of real estate projects, and PVC demand is expected to rise. However, PVC prices have slightly declined this week, leading to a lack of enthusiasm for market procurement, weak downstream demand, and a weakened driving force for plasticizer cost increases.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that this week, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride have fluctuated and increased, the cost of plasticizer product DOP has increased, downstream PVC procurement enthusiasm has decreased, plasticizer demand has weakened, and the upward momentum of plasticizer product DOP prices has weakened. In the future, with rising costs and weaker demand, the upward momentum of plasticizers remains, and it is expected that plasticizer DOP prices will fluctuate and consolidate.

According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of July 26, 2023, the reference price for domestic n-propanol was 7766 yuan/ton. Compared to July 21, 2023, the price remained basically unchanged. Compared to July 1, 2023 (reference price for n-propanol was 7833 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (7.21-7.26), the overall market situation of n-propanol in China showed a fluctuating range. At the beginning of the week, some suppliers of n-propanol in Shandong region adjusted the price of n-propanol based on their own inventory and shipment situation, with an adjustment range of about 200 yuan/ton. The overall market of n-propanol fluctuated. From mid week to weekend, the n-propanol market remained stable, with consolidation and operation being the main focus. As of July 26th, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 6700-7600 yuan/ton. The market for n-propanol in Nanjing is relatively stable. Distributors in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of the Future Market Trend of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-propanol market is mild, with relatively stable supply and demand. Downstream customers mainly purchase just in need, and new orders in the market are traded normally. The business company’s n-propanol data analyst predicts that in the short term, the overall domestic n-propanol market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in news on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the domestic market of imported Potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week, with the price of 2750.00 yuan/ton. On July 24, the Potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 86.51, down 0.79 points from yesterday, down 50.45% from the cycle’s highest point of 174.60 (2022-06-21), and up 48.52% from the lowest point of 58.25 on August 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of domestic mainstream Potassium chloride dealers is temporarily stable this week. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 2400 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium in ports is around 2300-2400 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 2600-2700 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2200-2300 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market of Potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate continued to fall this week, from 7380.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7340.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a drop of 0.54%, and the price at the weekend fell 27.33% year on year. The price of Potassium nitrate market fell slightly this week, from 5550.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5555.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.45%. The price at the end of the week fell 24.05% year on year. On the whole, the downstream market of Potassium chloride declined slightly, and downstream customers’ demand for Potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The overall trend of Potassium chloride market in late July may fall in a narrow range, mainly finishing. Salt Lake and Zangger Potassium chloride prices were adjusted at a low level. The downstream market of Potassium chloride declined slightly, and the downstream demand was weakened, with rigid demand as the main demand. Potassium chloride analysts from the business agency believe that the domestic Potassium chloride import price may fall slightly in the short term.

The price of ethylene oxide slightly increased in some regions in July

According to the data of the business society, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic Spot market will be 6000 yuan/ton on July 24, 2023, which will be the same as that at the beginning of the month; Compared to the beginning of the year, the price was 6800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.76%.

In terms of regions, the quotation in South China rose, with an external quotation of 6200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last Friday.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

The main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer prices have slightly increased, and market participants believe that the price increase may stimulate the enthusiasm of monomer enterprises to start construction, thus providing some positive support for the ethylene oxide market.

Overview of Fundamentals

Affected by the continued strength of upstream raw material ethylene prices, the production cost of ethylene oxide in July moved up. At present, the operating pressure of ethylene oxide manufacturers is increasing, and some enterprises have lowered their operating rates, leading to expectations of a decrease in market supply. Especially in South China, the load of Zhongke equipment dropped to a low level due to force majeure, and the supply in some areas was gradually tightened.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the Aluminium chlorohydrate market rose first, then fell, and then remained flat in the middle of July, showing a small upward trend in general: China’s solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) Aluminium chlorohydrate market reported about 1712 yuan/ton on the 11th, and 1718 yuan/ton on the 20th, an increase of only 0.36%. The operating rate of water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas has decreased, the overall market inventory is sufficient, and the downstream procurement demand is average; Affected by the price rise of raw material hydrochloric acid, the market of Aluminium chlorohydrate increased slightly.

As shown in the figure, at the beginning of the third quarter of 2023, the domestic market of Aluminium chlorohydrate showed a slight decline in the first ten days of July, while the market rose in the middle of July.

Raw material hydrochloric acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic price of hydrochloric acid has increased from 173 yuan/ton to about 179.6 yuan/ton since July. Recently, the price of hydrochloric acid in Henan, the main production area of water treatment in China, has risen, leading to an increase in the cost of Aluminium chlorohydrate, which has driven its market upward.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas market in mid July fell first and then rose. Among them, on the 11th, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 4056 yuan/ton, and on the 20th, the average price was 4148 yuan/ton, with a ten-day increase of 2.27%.

Future forecast: In the near future, the market of raw materials and fuels will rise, and the cost of Aluminium chlorohydrate will increase; The Aluminium chlorohydrate manufacturers in China have normal production, sufficient inventory and little change in downstream demand. With regard to the future market, the analysis believes that the Aluminium chlorohydrate market will continue to be affected by the cost, and it is likely that it will be slightly stronger in the short term. In the medium and long term, it still needs to see the support of downstream demand.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of 1 # electrolytic manganese market fell slightly this week (from July 7 to July 14). The price of Spot market in East China was 16050 yuan/ton on July 14, down 0.31%.

In terms of manganese ore: Manganese ore prices have slightly increased this week, with steel bidding boosting the market during the week. Inquiries on the market have increased, transactions have slightly improved, prices have slightly increased, and market sentiment has slightly improved. Among them, the Australian dollar is 39.5 yuan/ton, and Gabon is 37.5 yuan/ton. The transaction price of Gaogao Aozi is 36.5-37 yuan/ton, Gabon is 37-37.5 yuan/ton, and South Africa’s high-speed rail is 31-31.3 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that prices have been declining for five consecutive months since December 2022. After a slight recovery in May, prices continued to decline in June.

The electrolytic manganese market continues to maintain stable, moderate, and weak operation, with mainstream market prices ranging from 14300 to 14400 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from last week. The electrolytic manganese market continued to be weak throughout July, with slightly lower market sentiment and a narrow decline in the market, making it difficult to break the weak balance between supply and demand. At the beginning of this week, market news on the supply side stated that some manganese manufacturers had plans to resume production, which affected market sentiment. In terms of demand, the market is about to enter a low season, with slightly weaker demand. Although the pricing of steel recruitment has slightly declined this week, the overall performance is still good. The game mentality between the supply and demand sides is strong, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The FOB price is between 1950 and 1980 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 30 to 50 US dollars per ton compared to last week. Overall, Business Society expects that downstream demand will remain weak overall, and there is an expectation of increased supply in the market. It is expected that the future market will continue to operate weakly, waiting for more guidance on steel bidding prices.

Related data:

On July 16th, the base metal index stood at 1222 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 24.38% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 90.34% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, there were a total of 14 commodities in the non-ferrous sector on the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 28th week of 2023 (7.10-7.14), with 2 commodities increasing by more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities were Dysprosium(III) oxide (6.00%), silver (5.08%) and zinc (3.05%). There are a total of 8 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with the top 3 products falling respectively being neodymium metal (-3.39%), antimony (-3.14%), and praseodymium metal (-2.39%). This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.95%.

The price of Aluminium fluoride drops in shock this week

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 14, the quotation of domestic Aluminium fluoride was 9650 yuan/ton, down 2.03% from the price of Aluminium fluoride of 9850 yuan/ton on July 7 last weekend; The price of Aluminium fluoride dropped by 2.53% from 9900 yuan/ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of raw materials fell weakly, the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell, downstream demand was weak, and the price of Aluminium fluoride fell in shock this week.

The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is weak and temporarily stable

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 14th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9585.71 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of 9585.71 yuan/ton on July 7th last weekend; Compared to July 1st, the price of hydrofluoric acid dropped by 9657.14, a decrease of 0.74%. In the slack season of refrigerant, the demand for hydrofluoric acid is weak, the price of hydrofluoric acid is weak and stable this week, the cost of Aluminium fluoride is weak and stable, and the downward pressure of Aluminium fluoride remains.

Fluorite prices remain weak and stable this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 14th, the price of fluorite was 3062.50 yuan/ton, which has stabilized compared to the price of fluorite on July 7th last weekend, which was 3062.50 yuan/ton; The price of fluorite decreased by 1.76% compared to 3117.50 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month. In the slack season of the market, the demand is weak, the price of fluorite is weak and stable this week, the cost of Aluminium fluoride drops, and the downward pressure of Aluminium fluoride remains.

Aluminum prices fluctuate and rise this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 14th, the price of aluminum ingots was 18530 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.68% compared to last weekend’s July 7th aluminum price of 18223.33 yuan/ton; The aluminum price decreased by 0.11% compared to 18550 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month. The nonferrous metal plate jumped collectively, and the aluminum price followed the rise. The downstream demand supported the aluminum price. However, the high temperature power rationing in Sichuan has limited the start of Sichuan electrolytic aluminum enterprises. It is expected that the demand for Aluminium fluoride will weaken in the future market.

Market Overview and Forecast

The analysts of Aluminium fluoride industry from the business agency believe that: the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite are weak and stable this week, and the costs of Aluminium fluoride raw materials are weak and stable; The power supply in Sichuan is limited, the electrolytic aluminum starts to decline, and the demand for Aluminium fluoride is expected to decline. In the future, the cost will stabilize, and the demand will decline. The downward pressure of Aluminium fluoride will increase. It is expected that the price of Aluminium fluoride will fall in the future.

In the first half of 2023, the domestic market of Lithium hydroxide first declined and then rose, and the overall trend was sluggish. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of domestic industrial Lithium hydroxide enterprises was 553333.31 yuan/ton on January 1, 2023, and the average price of domestic industrial Lithium hydroxide enterprises was 332500.00 yuan/ton as of June 30. The market fell 39.91% in half a year, 29.75% lower than the same period last year.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of Lithium hydroxide from January to June 2023, the monthly price of Lithium hydroxide in the first half of 2023 has a small rise, a large decline and an overall decline. The market situation rose in May and June, while other months fell. The largest decline was in April (29.93%) and the largest increase was in May (18.45%).

Price decline stage (January April): the decline of upstream Lithium carbonate prices dragged down the weak downstream demand, with a 53.46% decline from January to April

In January, the upstream Lithium carbonate operated weakly, which weakened the support for the Lithium hydroxide market, and the domestic downstream purchase intention was not high. The deal was mainly just needed, and the price of Lithium hydroxide fell slightly. In February, the upstream Lithium carbonate price fell, dragging down the market mentality. In addition, the domestic demand was weak, and the actual market transactions were limited. Most of them were low price orders. The focus of Lithium hydroxide negotiations was weak. In March, the downtrend of upstream Lithium carbonate continued, and the support for Lithium hydroxide weakened again. The manufacturers mainly delivered long-term orders, and the market buying atmosphere was depressed. Under the mentality of downstream enterprises buying up rather than buying down, the actual orders in the market were not good, and the market was weak. The downturn in the upstream Lithium carbonate market continued in the first half of April, with insufficient support for Lithium hydroxide, abundant market supply, weak demand, poor mentality of the industry, pressure on high market prices, and continued weak market.

Price rise stage (May June): the rise of Lithium carbonate price supports the rise of downstream procurement demand, and the rise of 29.13% in May June

In May, the upstream Lithium carbonate market rose mainly, and the Lithium hydroxide market was strongly supported. The manufacturers mainly executed long orders. The enthusiasm of downstream inquiry was slightly improved, the price mentality of the industry was strengthened, the enterprise quotation rose, and the Spot market was just in need of transactions. In the first ten days of June, the cost support continued, driving the price of Lithium hydroxide to keep up. The manufacturer mainly made long-term orders, and the downstream needs to follow up. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

In July, the domestic industrial Lithium hydroxide market was weak, the support from the upstream Lithium carbonate was insufficient, the downstream purchased on demand, and the trading atmosphere in the Spot market was light. Lithium hydroxide analysts from the business agency believed that the domestic Lithium hydroxide market was expected to be weak and stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the domestic market of imported Potassium chloride fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 2775.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2750.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.90%. On July 10, the Potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 87.30, unchanged from yesterday, 50.00% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 174.60 (2022-06-21), and 49.87% higher than the lowest point of 58.25 on August 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of domestic mainstream Potassium chloride dealers fell slightly this week.

From the downstream market of Potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate market fell slightly this week, from 7700.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7580.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 1.56%, and the price at the weekend fell 25.14% year on year. The price of Potassium nitrate market rose slightly this week, from 5425.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5525.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 1.84%, and the price at the weekend fell 26.70% year on year. On the whole, the downstream market of Potassium chloride fluctuated with each other, and the downstream customers’ demand for Potassium chloride was average.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The overall trend of Potassium chloride market in the middle and late July may fall in a narrow range, mainly finishing. Salt Lake and Zangger Potassium chloride prices were adjusted at a low level. The downstream market of Potassium chloride fluctuates with each other. The downstream demand is general, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand. International potassium fertilizer prices continue to decline. Potassium chloride analysts from the business agency believe that the domestic Potassium chloride import price may fall slightly in the short term.