1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data from Business News, the price of petroleum coke from local refiners continued to decline this week. On March 19, the average price in the Shandong market was 2601.50 yuan/ton, down 3.70% from the price of 2701.50 yuan/ton on March 13.

The petroleum coke commodity index on March 19 was 202.34, unchanged from yesterday, down 50.49% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 (2022-05-11), and up 202.50% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of petroleum coke in refineries continued to decline, and local refineries actively scheduled their inventories, resulting in poor delivery and investment. Downstream enterprises were cautious in receiving goods. In addition to high domestic port inventory, the current petroleum coke market is still in a situation of oversupply.

International crude oil plummeted this week: The collapse of a Silicon Valley bank in the United States, coupled with the disappointing inflation report data from the United States, has raised concerns about financial risks in the market. In addition, the jitters of Credit Suisse have hit the financial market, putting pressure on risky assets such as stock markets and crude oil, and adding to the negative impact of a more than expected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, which has subsequently dragged down oil demand and caused crude oil prices to plummet.

The price of calcined coke decreased this week; The contradiction between supply and demand of metallic silicon is fierce, and downstream demand is poor. At the same time, the supply end has a slight increase in furnace opening, and the output continues to increase. The pressure for silicon factories to go to storage is high; The downstream electrolytic aluminum price fluctuated downward, and as of March 19, the price was 18166.67 yuan/ton; Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises mainly purchase based on demand, and are cautious in receiving goods.

Oil coke analysts from Business News believe that international crude oil plummeted this week, with limited cost support for oil coke; Currently, the storage of petroleum coke in domestic ports is at a high level for a long time, with sufficient market supply and strong wait-and-see sentiment; Local refining enterprises are actively destocking, while downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, and their enthusiasm for entering the market is not good. It is expected that petroleum coke refining in the near future may decline.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by the Business News Agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 fell this week, with the average domestic PVC price of 6225 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 6183.33 yuan/ton on Friday. The price fell by 0.94% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic spot market price of PVC was lowered this week. Currently, the spot market is relatively light, and the enthusiasm of downstream and traders to take goods is not high. The poor performance of futures prices this week has affected confidence in the spot market. In addition, due to the decrease in the price of raw calcium carbide, raw material support is limited. The market inquiry atmosphere was weak and fell, with downstream customers waiting and watching, and the actual transaction was cautious. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic PVC5 carbide materials is mostly around 5800-6300 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, on March 16th, international crude oil futures rose. The main contract settlement price for US WTI crude oil futures was USD 68.35/barrel, up USD 0.74 or 1.1%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.70 per barrel, up $1.01 or 1.4%. Financial market panic eased and US stocks rebounded. There is news that Saudi Arabia and Russia have met to discuss measures to stabilize the market, and oil prices have bottomed out and rebounded.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by the Business Society, the average price of calcium carbide at the beginning of the week was 3483.33 yuan/ton, compared to 3466.67 yuan/ton on Friday, with a decrease of 0.48% during the week. Calcium carbide manufacturers’ prices fell this week. The price of upstream blue charcoal decreased slightly, with insufficient cost support. The downstream PVC market declined slightly, and the demand for calcium carbide weakened.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

PVC analysts from Business News believe that the spot price of PVC fell this week. Currently, the demand for PVC spot market is general. Downstream customers are more wait-and-see, cautious in actual orders and transactions, and primarily on demand. It is expected that in the short term, the PVC market will continue to fluctuate, consolidate and operate, and pay close attention to changes in the news.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, as of March 10, the average price of cyclohexane, a domestic industrial top-grade product, was 7333.33 yuan/ton. The price trend of cyclohexane rose slightly this week, up 1.38% from the same period last week. The purchasing atmosphere was general and the focus of negotiation was stable.

This week, the average price of cyclohexane, a domestic industrial top-grade product, was 7333.33 yuan/ton. At present, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains around 7300 yuan/ton. The supply range is normal, the operating rate is stable, and the purchasing atmosphere is general. The downstream just needs to purchase, and the shipment volume is acceptable.

Chemical index: The chemical index reached 923 points on March 9, which was the same as yesterday, down 34.07% from the highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23) in the cycle, and up 54.35% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

 
Cyclohexane analysts of the Business Agency believe that the stable operation of cyclohexane market price is the main factor in the short term.

The market of nitrile rubber has declined slightly since the beginning of March. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of nitrile rubber was 17150 yuan/ton as of March 13, down 1.58% from 17425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw butadiene fell and the price of acrylonitrile fluctuated in a narrow range. The factory price of nitrile rubber of enterprises was temporarily stable. However, with the rising price of nitrile rubber, the fear of high prices in the downstream increased, and the weak demand in the downstream, the market price fell slightly.

Since March, the price of raw material butadiene has declined, the price of acrylonitrile has fluctuated slightly, and the cost of nitrile rubber has weakened slightly. As of March 13, the price of butadiene was 9166 yuan/ton, down 5.62% from 9712 yuan/ton at the beginning of March, according to the monitoring of the Business News Agency; As of March 13, the price of acrylonitrile was 10400 yuan/ton, down 0.95% from 10500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The supply of nitrile rubber has declined slightly since March.

Since March, the downstream rubber products industry, such as rubber hose and auto parts, has been dominated by small inquiries, with a small number of transactions in the market.

Future forecast: NBR analysts from the business agency believe that the supply of NBR has decreased slightly at present, but the price of raw material butadiene has declined, while the cost of NBR has declined; At present, the improvement of downstream construction is not obvious, and the nitrile rubber market is expected to be weak and consolidated in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market is mixed, and the spot price is mixed. As of March 13, the average price of ABS sample products was 11833.33 yuan/ton, up and down by – 1.39% from the average price level a month ago, according to the data monitoring of Business News Agency.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: the ABS industry has been running at a high load for more than a month. Due to the pressure from the supply side and the fierce competition for new materials, the petrochemical plant began to reduce the burden independently. Last week, the industry load dropped by 6% from the beginning of the month, but the 90% operating rate is still high. At present, the supply of goods in the field continues to be abundant, and domestic inventory accumulates. The factory still has plans to reduce the negative load in the future, and the news has formed a bottom for some spot goods.

In terms of raw materials: the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials is weak recently. Among them, the market of acrylonitrile stabilized slightly last week. The load of some factories has increased, and the future supply is expected to increase. The goods are generally transported in the field, and the downstream goods are mainly just needed. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will be consolidated in a narrow range in the short term.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has declined. Affected by the continuation of plant restart, the short-term supply increment was less than expected. The market of downstream products also fell, while demand was difficult to provide effective support, and profit performance was under pressure. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will be dominated by weak consolidation in the short term.

Last week, the styrene market in Shandong Province was shaken and sorted out. The improvement of terminal demand is limited, and the effect of de-stocking of the seller camp is poor. In the early stage, the international crude oil fell three times and rebounded recently, but the support of pure benzene and ethylene as raw materials for styrene was limited. It is expected that the short-term volatility of styrene market will be mainly lower.

Demand: Downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, are generally motivated to stock goods recently, and some manufacturers still have raw material inventory to digest. The overall demand improvement is limited, the actual transaction is weak, and the flow of goods in the market is poor.

Aftermarket forecast

In the near future, the overall trend of ABS upstream three materials is weak, and the support for ABS cost side is poor. The high starting point of petrochemical plants fell slightly, and the market supply continued to be abundant. The demand-side support is poor, the mentality of merchants is weak, and the operation is biased to yield profits and take orders. It will take time for the petrochemical plant to reduce the negative pressure. It is expected that the ABS market will continue to digest the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of the Business Agency, as of March 10, 2023, the price of domestic n-propanol was referenced at 8000 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as that of March 1, 2023.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that in the first ten days of March (3.1-3.10), the overall range of the domestic n-propanol market was dominated by small fluctuations. Recently, the supply and demand information of n-propanol in the market changed little. The market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province was mostly adjusted by suppliers in a narrow range according to their own inventory and other factors, with an adjustment range of around 100 yuan/ton. As of March 10, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province was around 7400-7600 yuan/ton, and the barrel price was around 9000 yuan/ton. Dealers in different regions have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. There are also differences in each region, and the negotiation is based on the actual order.

Prediction of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-propanol on the market is mild, the downstream demand is relatively stable, and the operators are in a good mood. The n-propanol statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market is mostly stable, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

Futures:

Since the early opening of the domestic futures market in early February, the rubber futures have been sharply reduced by about 4%. After that, the main market has continued to fluctuate around 12400-12550, and has been down since then.

goods in stock:

Commodity market: The monitoring of the business society shows that in the early February 2023, the spot market of natural rubber in China followed the trend of futures, with a decline of 4.28% in the three days of the week, from 12610 yuan to 12070 yuan/ton; Subsequently, the trend of spot rubber continued to decline after the decline. On March 7, the market reported 12000 yuan/ton, down 4.84% from 12610 yuan/ton on February 1, basically close to the price of 12070 yuan/ton on the third day. Among them, the highest price in this stage is 12610 yuan/ton on February 1, and the lowest price is 11980 yuan/ton on February 13, with a maximum amplitude of 5%. During the annual trough of global natural rubber supply, the number of new purchases after the inventory consumption of downstream product factories is sparse, and the market transaction is unfavorable, with the market mainly falling.

Supply side: At present, the global natural rubber production is in the seasonal and annual low production period. The foreign production areas have basically stopped cutting, and the domestic production areas, Hainan and Yunnan, are currently in the cutting period. It is said that Yunnan will try to cut rubber as soon as the end of this month. According to the practice, the initial production is also very low, which has limited impact on the market supply pattern. At present, the global supply situation conforms to the global natural rubber production law.

Demand side: operating rate: since the start of construction in early February, domestic rubber products enterprises have mainly consumed the pre-year inventory, and the procurement began to recover slowly in the late part of the month. Over the past two months, the factory operating rate has gradually risen. The data shows that as of March 3, the operating load of all-steel tires of rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 68.98%, 0.44 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, 8.54 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year; The starting load of semi-steel tires of domestic rubber tire enterprises was 74.15%, 0.19 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, and 6.01 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. Heavy truck sales data: In January 2023, China’s heavy truck market sold about 46000 vehicles of various types, – 52% year-on-year and – 15% month-on-month. In February, China’s heavy truck market sold about 68000 vehicles, up nearly 50% month-on-month and 15% year-on-year, ending the continuous decline of the heavy truck market since May 2021. It had been 21 consecutive months of decline, and the market sales volume was extremely severe. This was mainly due to the lower year-on-year base, strong exports and the release of the pent-up demand for car change last year. Although the purchase demand is sparse and the market transaction is poor after the year, the decline of the natural rubber market in the current month fully covers the previous increase, and it has continued to decline until now; However, in view of the increase in the operating rate and the sharp increase in the sales data of heavy trucks in February, the natural rubber market has an important upward support.

Import and export: In terms of export: in December 2022, China’s total rubber tire export volume was 660000 tons, an increase of 90000 tons on a month-on-month basis and a year-on-year increase of 1.1%; The export value was 11.839 billion yuan, up 12.6% year on year, and the average export price maintained an upward trend. From January to December, China’s rubber tire exports totaled 7.65 million tons, up 4.7% year on year; The export value was 131.418 billion yuan, up 16%. Some analysts said that the expectation of China’s tire export in the later stage was not optimistic. Import: According to the data, Thailand exported 427000 tons of natural rubber and mixed rubber in January, up 2.2% year-on-year and 12.7% month-on-month; Total exports to China were 288000 tons, up 40% year-on-year and 20% month-on-month; Vietnam exported 41000 tons of natural rubber in January, down 37% year on year. In terms of various varieties, the export of standard rubber was 23000 tons, down 41% year on year; Tobacco adhesive decreased by 67% year-on-year; Latex decreased by 25% year on year. The export of natural rubber to China was 13000 tons, up 30% year on year. It can be seen that China’s imports of natural rubber from Thailand and Vietnam have increased significantly.

Inventory side: Since 2023, China’s import of rubber has continued to increase. The main port of Tianjiao has a high social inventory, slow market digestion and poor circulation.

Industry hotspot:

1. According to the recent report of ANRPC, the global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 2.2% to 14.672 million tons in 2023; In 2023, global natural rubber consumption is expected to decrease by 0.1% to 14.738 million tons. The decline in consumption is mainly due to the uncertainty of the global economy in 2023.

2. According to the latest data released by the Association of European Automobile Manufacturers (ACEA), the European passenger car market increased by 11.3% to 760041 vehicles in January 2023, opening a new year in a positive way. However, this is mainly due to the exceptionally mild comparative base in 2022, when the trading volume in January reached the lowest level since the record.

3. At the keynote press conference of the National Development and Reform Office on the 2nd, the Minister of Commerce said that in 2022, a series of policies were introduced for new energy vehicles, with obvious effects. The sales of new energy vehicles had nearly doubled to more than 6.8 million. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased significantly. In 2023, while implementing the policies, we will actively introduce new policies and measures to guide local governments to carry out new energy vehicle activities in the countryside, optimize the use environment of charging, support the consumption of new energy vehicles, improve the construction of charging piles and other supporting facilities, and work with relevant departments to make plans, strengthen efforts, and steadily advance.

Figure 5: Comparison of annual spot market trend of natural rubber in 2021-2023

Future forecast: From a macro perspective, 2023 is still full of challenges, the global economic recovery is uncertain, the economic growth rate is slowing, and the recovery expectation is cautious and optimistic. From the perspective of industry, the favorable global supply during the trough period supported the continuous fluctuation of rubber in more than 12 thousand, but the short-term purchase demand of downstream product enterprises was sparse, resulting in the current weak market of natural rubber and the continuous slight fluctuation of market price. It is expected that the short-term market is still waiting for the sharp recovery of downstream demand and the continuous consumption of high inventory. The lowest supply in the late part of this month coincides with the depletion of factory demand inventory. Maybe the natural rubber market will usher in a big adjustment period. In the future, the natural rubber market is in the traditional rising expectation of the industry. It is in urgent need of a substantial boost in downstream demand. At the same time, it is also necessary to beware of the impact of external factors such as inflation pressure, geopolitical tension, global crude oil market, etc. on the natural rubber market.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 3866.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3850.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.43%. The arrival price of domestic salt lake potassium chloride this week is 3500-3600 yuan/ton. About 2.5 million tons are stored in the port. The commodity index of potassium chloride (import) on March 5 was 101.32, which was the same as yesterday, down 30.00% from the highest point of 144.74 (2022-06-21) in the cycle, and up 4.77% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotations of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers fell slightly.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex-factory price of potassium carbonate was at a low level this week, with a price of 9120.00 yuan/ton, up 7.29% year-on-year. The ex-factory price of potassium nitrate dropped slightly this week, from 5960.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5940.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.34%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.70%. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride declined slightly, and the demand of downstream customers for potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In the first half of March, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fall in a narrow range. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangger were low. The downstream market of potassium chloride is low, and the downstream demand is weakened, and the purchase is mainly in demand. International potash fertilizer prices continued to fall. Analysts of KCl from the Business Agency believe that the import price of domestic KCl may fall slightly in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate this week was 9120.00 yuan/ton, with the current price rising by 0.22% month-on-month and 7.29% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate fluctuated and consolidated this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the market of potassium carbonate has fluctuated slightly recently, and the market continues to be stable this week. The supply of domestic potassium chloride market is relatively sufficient, and the market is weak and consolidated. The market of potassium carbonate is cold and the market of potassium carbonate fluctuates little. According to the statistics of the Business News Agency, this week’s domestic industrial potassium carbonate mainstream ex-factory quotation range is around 9000-9300 yuan/ton (the quotation is for reference only), which varies according to different procurement conditions.

Recently, the quotations of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers fell. The international potassium chloride market is in short demand recently, and the price is in a downward trend. The domestic spot market of potassium chloride has a general trading volume, and the price of potassium chloride has fallen slightly. It is expected that the market of potassium chloride will consolidate at a high level in the future.

The domestic potash fertilizer market consolidates, the market supply is relatively sufficient, the cost support is general, and the downstream is just in need of procurement. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will fall mainly in the short term, and the long-term market will still need to wait and see.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the domestic PC market fell in February, and the spot prices of various brands were generally reduced. As of February 28, the reference offer of the sample PC enterprises of the Business Club was about 16466.67 yuan/ton, up and down by – 5.64% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: it can be seen from the above figure that the market demand for bisphenol A is low and the market is weak this month. The raw material phenol/acetone rose, and the decline in the factory price of bisphenol A plant tightened under the support of cost. However, the demand side is hard to be stimulated by good news. It is expected that BPA will have a high probability of fluctuation around the cost. In the later stage, it will continue to pay attention to the raw material market and downstream demand information.

Supply: In February, the total PC load in China was more than 70%, the operating rate was the highest in recent years, and the pressure at the supply side was too high. At the same time, there was news of new devices being put into operation recently. The flow of domestic goods is sluggish, and the pressure on the supply side is also increased.

In terms of demand: In February, the downstream of PC just needed to maintain production, and the operators had a heavy wait-and-see attitude. At present, the resumption of work of terminal enterprises is slow, and there is pre-holiday inventory that needs to be digested, resulting in weak intra-field trading. The traders’ mentality is weak, and the operation is biased to yield profits and take orders.

Aftermarket forecast

In February, the PC market fell, the upstream bisphenol A market weakened, and the PC cost support weakened. The domestic polymerization plant load is at a high level, while the demand side is weak in follow-up, and the pressure on the supply side is increasing sharply. It is expected that the PC market will continue to weaken due to the impact of supply and demand contradiction in the near future.