Futures:

 

Figure 1: The trend of the main contracts of natural rubber futures since 2023

 

In February, rubber futures continued to fluctuate slightly, mainly in the negative direction, and the market remained around 12400-12580.

 

goods in stock:

 

Figure 2: Trend chart of natural rubber spot commodity index in recent 2 months

 

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the natural rubber commodity index on February 28 was 35.64, which was the same as yesterday, down 64.36% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01) in the cycle, and up 30.65% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

 

Figure 3: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market in the last three months of 2022

 

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Commodity market: The monitoring by the Business News Agency showed that the spot price of domestic standard rubber in the East China market of natural rubber in February 2023 was mainly fluctuating and falling: the market reported 12610 yuan/ton on the 1st and 12020 yuan/ton on the 28th, ending with a monthly drop of 4.68%. The highest price of this month was 12610 yuan/ton on February 1, and the lowest price was 11980 yuan/ton on February 13. The maximum amplitude of this month was 05%. During the annual trough of global natural rubber supply, the annual inventory of downstream product factories is mainly consumed, resulting in sparse procurement. The market transaction is not good, and the market price is mainly negative this month.

 

Industrial factors: At present, the global natural rubber production has been at the annual low point: in foreign production areas, the continuous rainfall in southern Thailand and most parts of Malaysia in the last two months of the year has reduced the production of new rubber, and the main production areas in Vietnam have been in the cutting period this month, and the cutting and production reduction in northeastern and southern Thailand have been stopped; Malaysia and northern Indonesia have entered a period of production reduction, and the global natural latex production has reached an annual low in March. In late February, the demand of China’s downstream latex products enterprises began to recover. First of all, the consumption of stocks prepared before the year began to dominate. The purchase of new orders was small, the market turnover was weak, and the market rebounded from the increase after the Spring Festival. It is expected that the sharp adjustment of the market will be possible when the annual supply is at the lowest level next month and the inventory of product manufacturers is exhausted.

 

macroscopic:

 

Figure 4: Trend of the mainstream international crude oil prices in the last three months of 2022

 

In February, the crude oil market fell first, then rose and then fell, similar to the “W” trend. Among them, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $78.87/barrel on the 1st, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $85.46/barrel; On the 27th, international crude oil futures closed lower: the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 75.68 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 82.04 dollars/barrel. The global economic recession is expected to be superimposed with high oil inventories in the United States to limit the rise of oil prices.

 

Industry hotspot:

 

1. According to the recent report of ANRPC, the global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 2.2% to 14.672 million tons in 2023; In 2023, global natural rubber consumption is expected to decrease by 0.1% to 14.738 million tons. The decline in consumption is mainly due to the uncertainty of the global economy in 2023.

 

2. According to Yunnan report, in order to promote the high-quality development of natural rubber industry in Yunnan Province, the Rural Work Leading Group Office of Yunnan Provincial Party Committee, the Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the Provincial Bureau of Agricultural Reclamation recently jointly issued the Three-year Action Implementation Plan for Natural Rubber Industry in Yunnan Province (2022-2024), which made it clear that by 2024, the planting area and output of natural rubber in Yunnan Province will be stabilized at 8.5 million mu and 460000 tons respectively, The output value of the whole industrial chain increased from 18 billion yuan in 2021 to 25 billion yuan.

 

3. According to foreign media reports, an insider said that the increase in rubber production in Bangladesh is helping local tire manufacturers reduce their dependence on imported rubber. It is reported that, according to the data of the Bangladesh Rubber Bureau and producers, 67939 tons of raw rubber were produced in 2022 due to the increase in planting area, an increase of 58% from 43000 tons in 2021.

 

4. According to the data, Vietnam exported 135000 tons of natural rubber and mixed rubber in January 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 30%; Exports to China totaled 107000 tons, down 23% year on year.

 

6. According to the latest data released by the Association of European Automobile Manufacturers (ACEA), the European passenger car market increased by 11.3% to 760041 vehicles in January 2023, opening a new year in a positive way. However, this is mainly due to the exceptionally mild comparative base in 2022, when the trading volume in January reached the lowest level since the record.

 

7. Foreign media reported on the 20th that an insider said that the increase in rubber production in Bangladesh was helping local tire manufacturers reduce their dependence on imported rubber. It is reported that, according to the data of the Bangladesh Rubber Bureau and producers, 67939 tons of raw rubber were produced in 2022 due to the increase in planting area, an increase of 58% from 43000 tons in 2021.

 

8. According to the data, the export volume of natural rubber from C ô te d’Ivoire, the largest natural rubber producer in Africa, was 134452 tons in January 2023, an increase of 14.7% over the same period last year..

 

9. In January 2023, the sales volume of heavy truck market in China was 45000, down 53% year on year. This single month’s sales volume is not only far lower than that of the first year of 2022, but also lower than that of 2019 before the epidemic, which is mainly affected by the high base before the epidemic and the Spring Festival holiday.

 

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10. The Ministry of Commerce said that it would continue to work with relevant departments to stabilize and expand auto consumption, focusing on: first, stabilize new car consumption; (ii) Support the consumption of new energy vehicles and guide all regions to further optimize the use environment of new energy vehicles in various aspects such as license plate, charging and transportation; 3 Continue to expand the circulation of second-hand cars; Fourth, smooth the renewal of automobile scrapping, revise and improve the regulations on the management of automobile scrapping, improve the recycling system of scrapped automobiles, encourage the development of automobile scrapping in places where conditions permit, and promote automobile recycling consumption.

 

11. According to the data, Indonesia’s total export of natural rubber and mixed rubber in 2022 was 2.059 million tons, down 12.3% year on year; Exports to China totaled 174000 tons, down 11.8% year on year.

 

12. According to foreign media reports on February 2, the executive director of the Indian Rubber Commission said that India announced in the federal budget that it would increase the import tax rate of rubber in line with the import tariff of natural rubber, which is expected to make the domestic rubber farmers in the country obtain higher selling prices. The same tariff will help to close the loophole of importing natural rubber disguised as composite rubber to enjoy lower tariffs.

 

13. On February 1, 2023, the Department of Internal Market Protection of the Eurasian Economic Commission issued Announcement No. 2023/350/AD18R2, according to the resolution of the Eurasian Economic Commission No. 14 of January 31, 2023, to make a final anti-circumvention decision on the anti-dumping case of truck tyres originating from China, and to impose an anti-dumping duty of 14.79% to 35.35% determined in the resolution 154 of November 17, 2015 on the truck tyres added with rims and exported with tyres and disc or non-disc rim components, The measures will take effect three months from the date of issuance.

 

14. According to the information of the Passenger Car Federation on February 7, preliminary statistics showed that from January 1 to 31, the retail sales of 1.241 million passenger cars in the passenger car market decreased by 41% year-on-year and 43% year-on-year; Domestic passenger car manufacturers wholesale 1.341 million vehicles, down 38% year-on-year and 40% year-on-year.

 

15. According to the Malaysian Bureau of Statistics on February 7, Malaysia’s total rubber output in 2022 was 377047 tons, down 19.7% from 469669 tons last year..

 

16. According to the statistics and analysis of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the performance of China’s automobile market was flat in January, and the production and sales of automobiles showed a double-digit decline both on a month-on-month basis and on a year-on-year basis. The monthly production and sales were 1.594 million and 1.649 million respectively, down 33.1% and 35.5% month-on-month and 34.3% and 35% year-on-year.

 

Figure 5: Comparison of annual spot market trend of natural rubber in 2021-2023

 

Aftermarket forecast: At present, the global supply is at its lowest point in the recent year. The purchase demand of downstream product enterprises is gradually recovering and is in the pre-year inventory consumption stage. At present, the purchase order of Tianjiao is scarce, the market is weak, and the price of natural latex is declining. It is expected that the supply trough next month coincides with the increase of factory demand and the depletion of inventories, and the natural rubber market will usher in a big adjustment period.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1206 yuan/ton on February 1, and 1116 yuan/ton on February 27. The price of ammonium sulfate fell by 7.46% this month.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The price of ammonium sulfate fell sharply this month. In the first ten days of February, the bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate was increased due to the increase in downstream demand and the low inventory in the site. The operating rate of domestic enterprises increased, the supply of domestic enterprises increased, and the price of domestic ammonium sulfate decreased. Since the middle of February, the downstream demand has weakened, the bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate has been significantly reduced, and the domestic grade ammonium sulfate has continued to be weak. The export order of ammonium sulfate was limited this month, and the international market performance was weak. As of February 27, the mainstream ex-factory price of coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong was about 1080 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price of ammonium sulfate in Hebei was about 1100 yuan/ton. For domestic ammonium sulfate, Shandong’s mainstream ex-factory price is about 1080-1170 yuan/ton.

 

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According to the weekly rise and fall from November 28, 2022 to February 20, 2023, it can be seen that the rise and fall of domestic ammonium sulfate cycle are mixed. February fell a lot, with the largest decline of -5.62% in the week of February 20.

 

3、 Aftermarket forecast

 

Analysts of ammonium sulfate from the Business Agency believe that the domestic market demand for ammonium sulfate has declined recently, the intra-field trading has been weak, and the downstream purchases are mostly at low prices. In addition, the performance of the international market is still weak. It is expected that the market price of ammonium sulfate will continue to decline in the short term.

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According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, at the beginning of the month, the price of Shanxi’s industrial first class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5875.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of Shanxi’s industrial first class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5960.00 yuan/ton, up 1.45%. The current price fell 5.40% year-on-year.

 

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potassium nitrate

 

The domestic potassium nitrate market fluctuated and consolidated in February. From the figure above, it can be seen that the potassium nitrate market has fluctuated and declined for four consecutive months since 2023, and the market has not fluctuated much this month. The supply of raw potassium chloride is mostly concentrated in the hands of large traders, and the market is limited. The market of potassium nitrate is basically stable. According to the statistics of the business agency, the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate have recently quoted 5700-6100 yuan/ton (for reference only), which varies according to the purchase situation.

 

In February, the quotation of domestic potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers was temporarily stable: the price of 62% white potassium at the port was mostly 3500~3550 yuan/ton. The price of potassium chloride in the port also declined slightly. The price of 62% white potassium in the port rose to 3750 yuan/ton, which was the same as last week; The self-raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is about 3875 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from last week.

 

At present, the price of potash fertilizer market is weak and consolidated, and the cost support is general. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will fall mainly in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

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According to the data of the bulk commodity list of the Business News Agency, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province fell sharply in February. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province at the beginning of the month was 1246.67 yuan/ton, and the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province at the end of the month was 1233.33 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The current price fell 3.39% year on year.

 

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formaldehyde

 

In February, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell sharply. From the figure above, it can be seen that formaldehyde has fluctuated slightly in the past three months, and the price of this month has also fluctuated little. As of February 23, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1170-1280 yuan/ton. In February, after the Spring Festival, the formaldehyde manufacturers started work normally, and the formaldehyde shipments were general. The formaldehyde market rose and fell slightly, and was basically stable.

 

The situation of upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market fluctuated slightly in February, and the coal price remained stable. At present, the supply of coal in the main production areas has been repaired and improved. Under the influence of negative factors such as high inventory in the middle and downstream links, the market demand lacks substantive support. The temporary storage of methanol cost is good. The temporary storage of methanol supply side is good.

 

Recently, the domestic methanol market fluctuated slightly, with good expectations and supported by costs. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predicted that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was mainly rising in the near future.

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According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range. From February 14 to 21 (as of 15:00 p.m.), the average price of the eastern China port in the domestic methanol market rose from 2691 yuan/ton to 2714 yuan/ton. During the period, the price rose by 0.85%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.90% and a year-on-year increase of 5.00%. The cost coal market is relatively stable, the downstream demand recovers slowly, and the methanol price fluctuates.

 

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As of the close on February 21, methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main methanol futures contract 2305 opened at 2578 yuan/ton, with the highest price of 2605 yuan/ton and the lowest price of 2569 yuan/ton, and closed at 2604 yuan/ton at the end of the day, up 35 yuan/ton or 2.20% from the settlement on the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1231861, the positions were 1262368, and the daily positions were increased by 59106.

 

Summary of methanol market prices by regions as of 2.21:

 

Region/ Price

Shanxi Province/ 2410-2450 yuan/ton ex-factory

Liaoning region/ About 2550-2600 yuan/ton

Anhui Province/ About 2640-2700 yuan/ton

Henan Province/ 2550 yuan/ton

On the cost side, the coal price is stable. At present, the supply of coal in the main production areas has been improved. Under the influence of negative factors such as high inventory in the middle and lower reaches, the market demand lacks substantive support. The temporary storage of methanol cost is good.

 

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Demand side, downstream acetic acid: Henan Shunda is expected to restart, and the demand for acetic acid may increase; Downstream formaldehyde: Liuyang Jinggang and Lankao Huitong devices are planned to restart, and formaldehyde demand may increase. The temporary storage of methanol is favorable.

 

On the supply side, Jingmen Yingde and a set of devices in Hebei were overhauled. Jiangyou Wanli, Sichuan Daxing and Yunnan Yuntianhua have been restored. The overall loss was more than the recovery, and the capacity utilization rate fell. The temporary storage of methanol supply side is good.

 

In the external market, as of the close of February 20, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 373.5-375.50 US dollars/ton. The US Gulf methanol market is closed; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 336.00-338.00 euros/ton, up 4 euros/ton.

 

Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Up and down

Asia/ CFR Southeast Asia/ 373.5-375.50 USD/ton./- 1.5 USD/ton

Europe and America/ US Gulf/ /Cents per gallon/ /Min/gal

Europe/ FOB Rotterdam/ 336.00-338.00 euro/ton./4 euro/ton

In the future, with the recovery of Yuntianhua 260000 tons/year and other devices, the supply is relatively abundant, while the coal price is relatively stable, and the cost support is insufficient. Methanol analysts of the business agency predict that the domestic methanol market will be dominated by narrow consolidation.

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Price trend

 

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In the middle of February, the domestic POM market continued to operate actively, and the overall price performance rose. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 20, the average ex-factory price of domestic POM was 14333.33 yuan/ton, and the price level was+2.38% higher than the beginning of the month.

 

Cause analysis

 

In terms of raw materials: the formaldehyde market in Shandong Province has been volatile and consolidated recently. The methanol market of raw materials has not fluctuated much recently, and the cost support is not good. The downstream market remains just in need of purchase, and the formaldehyde market is temporarily on the sidelines. It is expected that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the short term.

 

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Supply: In mid-February, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises continued to decline at a high level, and the industry load was about 95%. The inventory situation of the enterprise is stable, the inventory position is low, and the processing profit has recovered.

 

Demand: In terms of demand, there is an atmosphere of speculation in the market due to the tight supply in the near future. In addition to the promotion of the resumption of work and stock preparation of terminal enterprises after the holiday, the current demand is gradually released, which has a driving effect on the spot price.

 

Aftermarket forecast

 

The POM market continued to rise in mid-February. The domestic polymerization plant has a high operating rate, low inventory pressure, a tight supply of goods on the site, and an increase in the factory price of domestic materials. The demand side is gradually developing, and it is expected that the downstream enterprises will still have room to expand the scale of resumption of work, and some customers will have upward-seeking operations. It is expected that the POM market will continue to run strongly in the short term due to the support of the supply side.

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Price trend

 

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According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the price trend of sulfur in East China fell first and then rose this week. The average price of sulfur was 1153.33 yuan/ton on February 17, up 0.58% from 1146.67 yuan/ton on February 11, down 1.42% from the beginning of the month.

 

The range of sulfur market in East China is sorted out. The domestic refinery units are operating normally, the market supply of goods is stable, the enthusiasm of taking goods from the downstream is not good at the beginning of the week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is sufficient. In order to stimulate the shipment, the sulfur price is reduced, and the downstream procurement is increased at the end of the week, and the enterprise’s shipment is stable. Some manufacturers raise their prices according to their own inventory, and the overall price fluctuation during the week is not large. As of the 17th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong was around 1120-1190 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 1080-1150 yuan/ton.

 

Downstream market of industrial chain

 

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The downstream sulfuric acid market was dominated by the average price of domestic sulfuric acid at 238.33 yuan/ton as of February 17, up 2.87% from 231.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week. The sulphuric acid plant operates normally, the market supply is stable, the downstream demand is increased compared with the previous period, the market trading atmosphere is improved, and the sulphuric acid enterprises raise their prices according to their own shipments.

 

The market of monoammonium phosphate rose first and then fell. On February 17, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate was 3320.00 yuan/ton. On February 11, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate was 3317.50 yuan/ton. The market price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 0.08%. Downstream customers are cautious, with general purchasing enthusiasm, few new orders on the market, poor overall trading atmosphere, fluctuating market trading focus, and the weekly market of monoammonium phosphate.

 

Aftermarket forecast

 

According to the sulfur analyst of the Business Society, the domestic refinery units operate smoothly, the market supply of goods is stable, the sulfur price is greatly affected by the downstream demand, the terminal phosphate fertilizer market is not performing well, the sulfur market is lack of positive, the refinery is mainly temporarily stable delivery, the operators are wait-and-see attitude, and the short-term sulfur market is expected to operate smoothly, and the follow-up situation of the downstream is specifically concerned.

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Acetic anhydride price fell this week

 

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According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 16, the price of acetic anhydride was 5300 yuan/ton, down 2.53% from 5437.50 yuan/ton on February 9. This week, the price of acetic acid fell, the price of raw materials fell, and the price of acetic anhydride fell in shock.

 

The price of acetic acid fell sharply this week

 

As can be seen from the chart of acetic acid price trend of the business community, as of February 16, the price of acetic acid was 3266.67 yuan/ton, down 0.86% from the price of acetic anhydride of 3295 yuan/ton on February 9; The price of acetic acid rose by 0.67% from 3245 yuan/ton on February 1. In February, the price of acetic acid rose first and then fell. This week, the price of acetic acid fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased.

 

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Methanol prices fell first and then rose this week

 

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business community, as of February 16, the methanol price was 2715 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the price of 2711.43 yuan/ton on February 9; Compared with the price of 2780 yuan/ton on February 1, the price fell by 2.34%. In February, the price of methanol fell in shock. This week, the price of methanol fell first and then rose. The downward pressure of acetic anhydride remained.

 

Future prospects

 

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of the Business Agency, the price of acetic acid fell in shock this week, the price of methanol fell first and then rose, and the cost of acetic anhydride fell; The downstream demand of acetic anhydride is insufficient. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride fell and the demand was poor, and the price of acetic anhydride fell in shock.

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The price of acetic anhydride fell on February 14

 

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According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price of acetic anhydride was 5350 yuan/ton on February 14, down by 0.70% from 5387.50 yuan/ton on February 13. The price of acetic anhydride fell due to weak demand.

 

Analysis points

 

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The price of acetic acid dropped, the price of methanol fluctuated and stabilized, the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride decreased, the start of acetic acid enterprises was stable, the supply of acetic acid was stable, and the cost of acetic anhydride was temporarily stable; The sales situation of acetic anhydride is poor, the downstream just needs to purchase, the customer’s purchase intention is general, and wait-and-see is the main reason. The acetic anhydride manufacturer starts at a high level, and the supply of acetic anhydride is sufficient. Acetic anhydride has great downward pressure.

 

Future prospects

 

The recent cost decline, weak demand for acetic anhydride and sufficient supply are expected to stabilize the price of acetic anhydride in the future.

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Price trend

 

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Recently, the domestic ABS market has been shaken and sorted out. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 13, the average price of ABS sample products was 12000 yuan/ton, up and down by -0.83% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

 

Cause analysis

 

In terms of raw materials: the recent performance of ABS upstream three materials is generally fair. Among them, the acrylonitrile market fluctuated after rising, the manufacturer’s listing price rose at the beginning of the month, the raw material propylene was supported, the industry started at a low level, and the business offer rose. The demand side gave a general feedback on the supply of goods after the rise this week, but the rise was hindered, mainly by the shock operation.

 

Recently, the domestic butadiene market has been stagnant. Although the price increase of mainstream manufacturers is obvious, the transmission is not smooth. Downstream synthetic rubber prices declined, terminal demand did not improve significantly, market atmosphere weakened, and price growth narrowed.

 

The mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has risen recently. The price of crude oil rebounded at the weekend, the cost support was good, and styrene manufacturers actively shipped. Downstream maintain just needed replenishment, and the styrene market is expected to rise in a narrow range in the short term.

 

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In terms of supply: the recent high level of load in ABS industry, the high and stable start of the plant, the weekly output increase, and the ample supply of goods in the site. The factory continued the early destocking operation, the overall inventory position was general, and the supply side supported the spot price generally.

 

In terms of demand: in the near future, downstream factories including the main terminal appliance industry have prepared goods in a regular manner. The volume of goods in the field before the festival is general, the overall demand tends to be stable, and the goods in the field are normal. Buyers and merchants follow the market after the festival.

 

Aftermarket forecast

 

Last week, the trend of ABS upstream three materials was mixed, and the support for ABS cost side was acceptable. The petrochemical plant started at a high level and the supply increased. The demand-side support is poor, the seller’s inventory position is high, and the offer follows the market. It is expected that the ABS market will continue to be weak and volatile in the short term.

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