441 # silicon price trend

As the Spring Festival approaches, the actual trading days of the metal silicon market decrease day by day, and the downstream enterprises take leave in advance, so the demand support is still insufficient. Although futures have recovered, spot prices continue to weaken. As of January 9, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the domestic market was 18780 yuan/ton, according to the monitoring of the Business Society.

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on September 9 is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Huangpu Port area is 18800-18900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 18850 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port area is 18600-18700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 18650 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming is 18400-18600 yuan/ton, with an average of 18500 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Sichuan is 18400-18600 yuan/ton, with an average of 18500 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 19300-19500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 19400 yuan/ton.

Influential factors of falling price of metal silicon

Supply:

The overall number of silicon metal furnaces this week is basically stable, with an increase of 1 compared with last week. It is understood that the total number of silicon metal furnaces is 709 at present. As of January 6, the silicon metal furnace opening rate is about 50.21%, 143 in Xinjiang, 43 in Sichuan and 59 in Yunnan. With the rise of power cost in dry season, the operating rate in Sichuan-Yunnan region continues to decline. Xinjiang’s output increased and supply was relatively loose.

Demand:

The mainstream price of polysilicon is in the range of 180-20000 yuan/ton. At present, the operating rate of enterprises’ devices remains high, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak, which causes the price of polysilicon to fall sharply. The downstream silicon wafer manufacturers are affected by the poor delivery and overstock of inventory, and the operating rate is reduced to below 80%, and the digestion of raw metal silicon inventory is slowed; The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 fell by 200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation was 18700 yuan/ton. The aluminum enterprises had holidays in succession, and the weekly operating rate of the aluminum alloy industry continued to decline; The organosilicon DMC market rose slightly, with the quotation of 16580 yuan/ton as reference. The trading atmosphere in the organosilicon DMC market was tepid, and the downstream demand was generally boosted. Some organosilicon DMC factories may still have some supply pressure, and it is expected that the operation will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range in the short term.

Aftermarket forecast

In general, the main reason for the weak decline of metal silicon is that the terminal demand is relatively weak, and under the stable supply and output in Xinjiang, the inventory pressure is large. Due to the shortage of funds at the end of the year, it is not excluded that the silicon factory will ship at a loss. It is expected that the price of metal silicon will continue to be under pressure in the short term.

Price trend

At the beginning of January, the domestic PA66 market trend was stagnating. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic PA66 was 21750 yuan/ton on January 6, which was the same as the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

At the beginning of this month, the market of PA66 was stable, and the spot price ran sideways. In terms of supply, the current overall load of PA66 industry in China is about 65%, which is also stable. The enterprise has undertaken the trend of stock removal in the early stage, and the inventory pressure is fair, while the supply is relatively abundant. On the upstream side, hexamethylene diamine runs smoothly. Adiponitrile rose at the beginning of the month, boosted by the cost side. In addition to the early low load operation, the recent cost support for PA66 is fair. The weak demand situation is hard to change. The terminal enterprises just need to follow up on the purchase of goods. Enterprises have entered the holidays one after another. The impact of the pre holiday stock surge has been diluted. Buyers generally have strong resistance to high priced goods, and are also relatively cautious about price cuts. The flow of goods is average.

Future market forecast

At the beginning of January, the spot price of PA66 stabilized. The raw material market rose, and the support for the cost side of PA66 gradually improved. The load of PA66 enterprises was stable, the ex factory price was sideways, and the overall inventory position was low. The demand side just needs to follow up the goods slowly, and it is expected that PA66 will continue to run sideways in the short term.

The price of ethylene oxide moves down after coming back on New Year’s Day

According to the data of the business cooperative, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic spot market on January 4, 2023 was 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday, and 500 yuan/ton lower than the average price of 6800 yuan/ton in the spot market before New Year’s Day.

At present, the listing price of ethylene oxide in all regions in China has been lowered by 300-500 yuan/ton compared with that before New Year’s Day. The factory listing price of mainstream markets in all regions is as follows:

The external implementation of ethylene oxide market in East China is 6300 yuan/ton; Ethylene oxide market in South China is 6300 yuan/ton; The listing price of ethylene oxide market in central China is 6300 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in North China is 6300 yuan/ton, and that of some manufacturers in Northeast China is 6300 yuan/ton.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

On the whole, weak downstream demand is the main reason for the weak and stable price of ethylene oxide.

Fundamentals Overview

On the supply side, ethylene oxide production capacity is relatively stable, the price of raw ethylene changes little, and support is limited. On the demand side, the main downstream polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer is facing the long holiday of the Spring Festival. The operating rate of the terminal real estate is under pressure. The construction conditions of the terminal terminal buildings are insufficient, and the demand is expected to weaken significantly. At present, the inventory of polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer enterprises has accumulated to a medium high level, the enthusiasm of enterprises for production has declined, and the purchasing atmosphere for ethylene oxide is weak. In the early stage, when the fundamentals of ethylene oxide were weak, the ethylene oxide manufacturers and traders holding the goods had been holding prices for a long time. After New Year’s Day, the willingness to reduce prices and ship goods was enhanced. As the Spring Festival approached, the willingness to realize increased.

Future market forecast

The price of raw ethylene is relatively stable, the terminal demand is weak, and the downstream demand is restrained. The market of polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer in the main downstream is facing the Spring Festival holiday. The operating rate of the terminal real estate is under downward pressure, and the demand for ethylene oxide is expected to weaken. In the early stage, the price of ethylene oxide has been trading sideways for a long time, and the supply and demand fundamentals have not improved. When we come back after the New Year’s Day, it is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will remain weak and stable in the short term after moving down.

In December 2022, the nylon filament market continued to be weak and the price fell. The supply of goods in the market remained sufficient and stable, the spot supply of raw material caprolactam was sufficient, the downstream demand was further cooled, and the weakness of nylon chips was followed up. The wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream enterprises has increased, the terminal textile and clothing consumption is still insufficient, the enthusiasm for fabric procurement is not high, and the market transaction atmosphere continues to be weak.

Market price trend

Nylon price chart

Price trend chart of nylon POY (86D/24F)

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of nylon filament fell in December. As of December 31, 2022, the price of nylon filament DTY (superior product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu Province was 16980 yuan/ton, 460 yuan/ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month, with a monthly drop of 2.64%; Nylon POY (superior product; 86D/24F) quoted 14725 yuan/ton, down 425 yuan/ton compared with the price at the beginning of the month, with a monthly drop of 2.81%; Nylon FDY (Premium: 40D/12F) price was 17750 yuan/ton, down 425 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly drop of 2.34%.

Upstream raw material market

Price rise and fall chart of nylon filament industry chain

Raw material caprolactam: according to the data of the business association, the domestic caprolactam was consolidated after falling in December, with the decline concentrated in the first ten days. On December 1, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 12200 yuan/ton, and on December 30, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 11066 yuan/ton, with a monthly price drop of 1134 yuan/ton, or 9.30%. Some caprolactam manufacturers have overhauled their devices, and some manufacturers have restarted their devices. The supply side has not changed much. The terminal demand is weak, a small amount of raw materials are purchased, and there are few deals on the market. In the case of weak supply and demand, caprolactam market is weak.

Raw material PA6: In December, the domestic PA6 market trend was negative, and the spot price gradually fell. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic PA6 was 13333.33 yuan/ton on December 30, up or down by – 4.31% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Supply and demand

At present, nylon yarn starts stably, 70% of the total starts are on the high side, the on-site supply is sufficient, the inventory is high, and the market is dominated by many main forces to digest the inventory. On the whole, the textile market is hard to hide the weak trend this month. Weaving manufacturers’ enthusiasm for stocking raw materials has declined. The market atmosphere is cold and the terminal demand is weak. The weaving machine rate has also weakened again. Bad news has flowed out from many places. Most weaving factories maintain the minimum load production.

Future market forecast

The upstream raw materials are weak and low, and the supply of goods in the market remains stable. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the downstream demand will further weaken, and the overall demand for textile terminals will show a decreasing trend. Analysts from the business community expect that the nylon filament market will continue its weak finishing operation in the later period.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic asphalt market fell first and then rose in December, which generally rose. From December 1 to 29, the average price of asphalt producers in Shandong Province rose from 3573 yuan/ton to 3691 yuan/ton, up 3.28%, and the price rose 17.28% year on year.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic asphalt market declined significantly, mainly due to the demand side. The weather gradually turned cold, and pavement construction was limited in some areas, so the demand for asphalt was weakened. Specifically, on the macro level, the international crude oil price fluctuated and fell in the same period, causing the spread of negative sentiment throughout the industry chain. Although there are signs of recovery recently, it has little impact on the current asphalt market. In the first ten days of this month, the asphalt price continued to decline, mainly due to the demand side. Affected by weather factors, downstream terminal demand continues to be sluggish. In the middle of this month, the price of asphalt market stopped falling and rising, mainly due to the rebound of crude oil price, the implementation of asphalt winter storage policy, the emergence of bottom price, and the release of some expediting and stock demand, which led to the price rise. In the last ten days of this month, the price of asphalt market continued to rise in a narrow range, mainly due to the rise of crude oil, the strengthening of cost support, and the obvious destocking of some refineries, which led to the tight spot resources, driving the price up.

In terms of cost, on December 29, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil of the business community was $79.53 per barrel, down – 1.27% compared with December 1 ($80.55 per barrel). Since December, oil prices have continued to fall, recording a decline in six trading days. WTI and Brent crude oil both fell by about $10. The results of the OPEC meeting of oil producing countries were released at the beginning of this month, which failed to further reduce production; As well as the EU’s oil price limit policy for Russian seaborne oil has been implemented, but in the short term, it is virtually non-existent. The oil price fell to the annual low against the background of demand depression at the far end. It has completely returned to the level before the Russian Ukrainian conflict. The domestic oil industry chain MTBE product market was affected by the market shock and fell.

In terms of supply, the decrease in supply is mainly due to the reduction of production in some places in North China and the intermittent shutdown of asphalt production by Yunnan Petrochemical in Southwest China.

On the demand side, there is a demand for centralized goods preparation in northwest and south China, while refineries in other regions mainly implement contracts.

It is predicted that the rise of international crude oil will support the sentiment of asphalt market to some extent. Influenced by a new round of cold air factors, the temperature drop in the northern region is obvious, and the demand has slowed down. At present, most of the demand is small purchase and warehousing, while the southern region still has a certain demand for acceleration. The asphalt analysts of the business association predict that the domestic asphalt market may rise in a narrow range in the short term.

Zinc price fell in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the zinc price was 23894 yuan/ton as of December 26, down 2.70% from 24556 yuan/ton on December 18. Zinc supply is expected to increase and demand is less than expected. This week, zinc prices fell in shock.

European gas price ceiling is set, and zinc smelting output is expected to increase

All EU countries agreed that the price ceiling of natural gas is set at 180 euros/megawatt hour, which is far lower than the price proposed by the EU last month. Natural gas prices fell, zinc smelting costs fell, zinc smelting output is expected to increase, and European zinc supply is expected to increase.

Demand is less than expected

The domestic prevention and control measures for zinc have changed, but the macroeconomic recovery is less than expected. The output of domestic factories has slowed down, retail sales continue to decline, and the supply and demand of zinc market have not met expectations. The impact of the epidemic has affected some employment. Most enterprises plan to take holidays in advance. The off-season effect may be greater than in previous years, and the downward pressure on zinc prices has increased.

Future market forecast

According to the data analysts of the business association, the cost of zinc smelting in Europe has decreased, the supply of zinc is expected to increase, while the recovery of the domestic market is less than expected, and the demand of zinc is less than expected. In general, the expected increase in zinc supply and demand is less than expected, and the zinc price is expected to fall slightly in the future.

Recent calcium carbide price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China dropped from 3766.67 yuan/ton at the weekend to 3700.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a drop of 1.77%. A year-on-year decrease of 24.49%. On December 18, the carbide commodity index was 96.94, unchanged from yesterday, down 54.32% from the highest point of 212.23 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 74.70% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream support is general, and the downstream demand is good

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week.

The price of the upstream semicarbon market was consolidated at a high level, while the price of the downstream PVC market rose slightly. The price of Shenmulan charcoal this weekend is about 1450-1800 yuan/ton, with average cost support. The PVC market price this week rose from 6025.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6116.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 1.52%. A year-on-year drop of 28.38%. The PVC market price rose slightly. Downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement increased. Downstream PVC market had a positive impact on calcium carbide price.

Calcium carbide may rise in the market after shocks

In late December, calcium carbide market rose mainly due to narrow fluctuations. The price of raw material semicarbon was consolidated at a high level, with good cost support. The PVC market in the downstream rose in a narrow range, and the demand in the downstream increased. In late December, calcium carbide prices in northwest China may rise in a narrow range.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of December 19, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 5500.00 yuan/ton, which was higher than that of the same period last week. The overall DMF market price rose 1.85%, maintaining a strong operation in the short term.

The domestic DMF price trend is relatively strong. At present, the mainstream price range is 5500.00 yuan/ton. The overall DMF market price has risen 1.85%. The operating rate is stable, the readiness of goods is poor, the logistics operation is slow, and the manufacturers give up profits and take orders.

Chemical commodity index: On December 18, the chemical index was 930 points, unchanged from yesterday, 33.57% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and 55.52% higher than the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

The DMF analyst of Business Agency believes that the DMF market is expected to run strongly next week.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the PP (wiredrawing) market in 2022 started to rise at 8130 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, and began to fall at a high level in March. As of December 18, the PP price was 7941.67 yuan/ton, down 2.32% for the whole year, with the overall trend rising first and then declining.

The PP market trend in 2022 is mainly divided into four stages:

The first stage: rapid expansion stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of PP wire drawing material was 8130 yuan/ton on January 1, and reached an annual high of 9360 yuan/ton as of March 9, with a range increase of 15.13%. During the period, the demand for goods preparation before the festival at the beginning of the year was met. Although the downstream enterprises’ work resumption and shipment after the Spring Festival were slowly released due to the impact of health events, the downstream enterprises’ demand for support was solid. In addition, at the end of last year, the coal falling market ended in January and the direct upstream propylene strengthened, so the polypropylene fundamental benefit was superimposed. In addition, the uncertainty of European situation in March is still strong, the market’s expectation of future energy supply interruption is further strengthened, the petrochemical industry chain continues to rise strongly, and the price position of polypropylene is rising rapidly due to various favorable factors.

The second stage: high shock stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of PP wire drawing material from 9360 yuan/ton on March 9 to 8941 yuan/ton on June 9 was high and volatile, with a range drop of 4.47%. At this stage, the divergence of the international market on the crude oil market caused sharp price fluctuations, the petrochemical industry chain was not smooth, and the direct upstream propylene gradually weakened. The purchase follow-up of PP downstream enterprises slowed down, and buyers were more resistant to high price goods. The merchants have a general mentality, and the offer follows the market. The smoothness of freight transport in some regions is not ideal, and the market gradually returns to the dominant role of fundamental game, but the overall position of PP price in the second quarter is still strong at a high position.

The third stage: off-season falling stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of August 22, the price of PP wire drawing material fell to a stage low of 7983.33 yuan/ton, 14.71% lower than 8941 yuan/ton in the first ten days of June. During this period, the trend of crude oil was weak due to the impact of macro inflation such as interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, propylene fell due to the weakness of downstream industrial chain, and PP cost support weakened. The consumption of terminal enterprises was at the off-season level, the operating rate decreased, and the PP inventory position reached a high level year on year. The petrochemical plant and the traders took orders for the delivery of profits, mainly for stock removal, resulting in a large drop in the price of PP in the three stages.

The fourth stage: shock adjustment stage. According to the monitoring of the business community, the PP (wire drawing) price was 7941.67 yuan/ton as of December 18, down 0.52% from 7983 yuan/ton on August 22. At this stage, the main fulcrum is the traditional peak demand season of “golden nine and silver ten”. Seasonal digestion and inventory operations have boosted the market from September to early October. However, with the end of the stock boom, the price increase gradually gave up. Looking back on the demand in the peak season of this year, its performance was not as good as that of previous years, and the pattern of PP weakening was not improved subsequently. In addition, the product market of major downstream enterprises such as plastic knitting and BOPP was poor, and the spot price of PP had fallen below the 8000 yuan/ton mark by the end of the year.

Overall, the PP market trend in 2022 is mainly affected by the following aspects:

Long term loose expectation of supply due to rapid expansion of industrial capacity

In recent years, China’s polypropylene industry has been in the big cycle of capacity expansion. Since 2018, the domestic average annual capacity growth rate has been 10.27%. Under the background of rapid growth of domestic total capacity, the pressure on the supply side is gradually increasing, and the price level is difficult to rise or fall.

According to the business community, the distribution of time points for the production of new capacity in 2022 is relatively average. In the first half of the year, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s third and fourth line oil made PP plants with a total annual output of 900000 tons were put into production in January and March respectively. The 10 t/a unit of Daqing Haiding was completed in February, and the process of producing PP from propylene was adopted. In addition, Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Phase II, Weifang Comfortable and Tianjin Bohai Chemical all have 300000 t/a units put into production. In the second half of the year, except that Ningbo Daxie (300000 t/a) and Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase II (600000 t/a) were put into production in September, other units are expected to be put into production successively in November and December. As of October, 2.8 million tons of new PP had been put into production, and the total domestic PP production capacity reached 34.87 million tons. If the capacity of six new projects such as Sinochem Hongrun is realized on time, the total new PP capacity will reach 5.4 million tons/year this year. In the long run, the expectation of supply easing will not change, and the pressure on suppliers will increase significantly.

Consumption is restricted by many parties and demand side lags behind

The downstream of polypropylene is mainly concentrated in plastic knitting. In 2022, plastic knitting will account for 32.5% of the overall consumption of polypropylene, and the main application fields are plastic knitting, net rope, fishing net, etc. However, the low technical threshold of the plastic knitting industry and the low profit of the enterprise have restricted the development of the industry. Although the downstream consumption of wire drawing increased by 0.94% this year, its follow-up is relatively lagging in the face of the rapid expansion of polypropylene production capacity.

In addition, various downstream polypropylene industries, including plastic knitting industry, were affected by imported inflation to varying degrees this year, resulting in high cost pressure and low profits, which restricted the orders of enterprises. Due to the decline of the general consumption index of daily necessities and fuel vehicles in 2022, the consumption of polypropylene decreased. Compared with last year’s consumption, low melt copolymerization decreased by 0.51%, homopolymer injection molding decreased by 0.28%, high melt copolymerization decreased by 0.36%, and medium melt copolymerization decreased by 0.01%. It will take some time to tap the demand for polypropylene downstream industry in the domestic market.

The polypropylene market is dragged down by the increased loss of raw propylene industry

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of December 17, the average spot price of domestic propylene was 7608.60 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from 7548 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. It rose first and then fell, with the decline concentrated in the third quarter. The supply and demand of propylene continued to grow, the demand follow-up was relatively weak, and the price of raw materials remained high, resulting in a continuous decline in the profitability of the industrial chain. During the year, the propylene market was highly competitive, and the industry suffered more losses. The support for PP price gradually weakened throughout the year.

Future market forecast: Polypropylene analysts from the business community believe that the PP industry will expand significantly in 2022. If all new production lines are put into production on time at the end of the year, it will be difficult for the terminal enterprises to follow up the demand for the time being. By then, the staged mismatch of production and marketing will be deepened, and the pressure on the supply side will inevitably have a peak. The current macro inflationary economic environment remains unchanged, and the profits of petrochemical enterprises have shrunk due to its impact. The overall support of the cost side for PP has weakened, and the market returns to the basic guidance of the supply and demand game. To sum up the influencing factors, the current PP industry chain is full of empty space, the mentality of practitioners is not strong, downstream activities tend to be conservative, and the market momentum is general. It is expected that the PP price will fluctuate in a narrow range, mainly for consolidation and operation.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic spandex market has been weak since December. As of December 15, the average market price was 35500 yuan/ton, down 3.27%% from the beginning of the month and 50.83% year on year. Spandex manufacturers adjust their prices appropriately, making small profits but quick turnover.

Current mainstream price statistics of polyurethane fiber market (unit: yuan/ton)

20D./ 30D./ 40D

Zhejiang./36000-42000./34000-38000./32000-35500

Shandong./36000-42000./34000-38000./32000-36000

Fujian./36000-46000./34000-40000./32000-38000

Jiangsu./36000-42000./34000-38000./32000-35500

PTMEG industry started to fall below 70%. The factory mainly keeps the price, the inventory pressure is fair, and the interest giving intention is temporarily limited, of which (1800 molecular weight) is temporarily assessed as 18500-19000 yuan/ton through market negotiation. The pure MDI market is stable, traders are reluctant to sell and bullish, and the market reference is 16200-16500 yuan/ton T/T barreled self lifting.

Downstream customers purchase conservatively. Most of them have the mentality of “buying up but not buying down”. The demand of the terminal market is flat, and the actual transaction receipt is discussed in detail. The order volume of textile enterprises this year is also far lower than that of the same period in previous years, and the demand has not been centralized. At present, the operating rate of circular machine industry is around 40%, and that of warp knitting industry is 60% to 70%.

Analysts from the business community believe that at present, the cost side support is maintained, but the downstream end customers are not very enthusiastic about taking goods, and they are resistant to the high price supply, focusing on just need. It is expected that the spandex market will be mainly stable in the short term.