1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the copper price rose and fell in November. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 64376.67 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price rose to 64906.67 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.82%, down 9.39% year on year. The main reason is that the Federal Reserve is expected to slow down the pace of interest rate increase. The weakening of the dollar index and tight fundamentals resonate with strong copper prices. However, many weak economic data suggest that economic growth is slowing down, and copper prices have been under pressure since mid month.

According to the current chart of business futures, the spot price of copper was higher than the futures price in November, and the main contract was the expected price two months later. Near the end of the month, the main basis difference becomes larger, which is bad for buying hedging.

According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory rose after falling in November, just opposite to the copper price in November and lower than the overall inventory in October.

Macro: In November, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that most Fed officials supported slowing down the pace of interest rate increase. The quarterly adjusted annual CPI rate of the United States recorded 7.7% at the end of October, and fell back to below 8% again seven months later, the smallest increase since January 2022; The quarterly core CPI annual rate recorded 6.3%, lower than the expected 6.50%. The final annual rate of CPI in the euro area in October recorded 10.6%, a record high. Data released by the People’s Bank of China on October 10 showed that the increase in social financing scale in October 2022 was 907.9 billion yuan, 709.7 billion yuan less than the same period last year.

In terms of supply: the domestic refined copper output has maintained a steady growth. In October, the refined copper output increased by 10.90% year on year. From the partial overhaul of domestic smelters in November, the output growth has slowed down. Affected by exchange rate fluctuations and reduced overseas supply, the marginal decline of domestic copper related imports.

Demand: The overall demand is weak, and the growth rate of investment in power infrastructure has dropped significantly. From January to October, the investment in power grid has increased by 3% year-on-year, 6.1 percentage points lower than that from January to September. In terms of real estate, real estate investment from January to October decreased by 8.80% year on year, 0.8 percentage points lower than that from January to September. In terms of household appliances, from January to October, the cumulative year-on-year changes in the output of domestic major household appliances appeared differentiation, and the monthly data of air conditioners, refrigerators and freezers declined in an all-round way, but the washing machines grew on a month on month basis. In terms of automobiles, the growth rate in October declined significantly, and the year-on-year growth rate of passenger cars dropped significantly to 7.40%, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 2.70%.

To sum up, China will cut its reserve ratio by 0.25% to release liquidity and support copper prices with policies of multiple real estate initiatives. However, higher profits of smelters will increase production capacity. There is still expectation for incremental release before the end of the year. In addition, the severe and complex domestic epidemic situation is worrying, making supply and demand weak. The trend of copper prices will not be optimistic. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate and weaken in December.

In November, the market of polybutadiene rubber fell first and then stabilized. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the price of cis polybutadiene rubber was 11420 yuan/ton as of November 25, down 3.79% from 11870 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, affected by the downturn in demand and the sharp drop in raw materials, the factory price of two barrels of oil cis polybutadiene rubber fell continuously. The market price of cis polybutadiene rubber fell 4.55% within four days. After the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell sharply, the downstream inquiries increased, and the overall market was stable.

Supply side: the commencement of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in November decreased slightly compared with that in October, and the pressure on the supply side eased slightly.

On the cost side: butadiene prices fell sharply in November, while cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber costs fell. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 25, the price of butadiene was 6763 yuan/ton, down 11.05% from 7603 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In November, the natural rubber market fluctuated upward, and the support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber increased. As of November 25, the price was 12016 yuan/ton, up 4.22% from 11530 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: The commencement of tires in major downstream consumer industries in November was slightly lower than that in October. According to the business community, the commencement of all steel tires in Shandong in the middle of November was around 5.0%, and the commencement of semi steel tires was 5.9% (the commencement load in the middle of October was 5.2% and 6.5% respectively), which had weak support for styrene butadiene rubber.

Future market forecast: The analysts of the business community believe that although the supply side pressure of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber eased slightly in November, the plans of Hopu and Jinzhou were restarted in the later period. In addition, Shandong Yihua has produced high-quality products, the supply side pressure of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will increase again in the later period. The cost side is low and the consolidation support is weak. If the demand side does not improve in the future, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will continue to operate weakly in December.

In November, the domestic polyurethane fiber market declined slightly. As of November 24, the average market price was 36700 yuan/ton, down 3.42% from the beginning of the month and 53.89% year on year. At present, about 70% of the polyurethane fiber industry is under construction, and the market supply is sufficient.

Current mainstream price statistics of polyurethane fiber market (unit: yuan/ton)

20D./ 30D./ 40D

Zhejiang./37000-43000./36000-40000./33000-36000

Shandong./37000-43000./36000-40000./33500-36000

Fujian./37000-47000./36000-40000./33500-39000

Jiangsu./37000-43000./36000-40000./33000-36000

The supporting role of the cost side is weakened, the PTMEG market is weak, and the factory still intends to keep the price. The market price of PTMEG (1800 molecular weight) is 19000-19500 yuan/ton. The overall negotiation atmosphere of the pure MDI market is not good, and the traders’ quotations have been lowered. At present, the market reference is 17500-18000 yuan/ton telegraphic transfer barreled self lifting.

Downstream end customers are not enthusiastic about picking up goods and follow up conservatively. At present, terminal textile orders are difficult, and many small and medium-sized textile mills have been unable to obtain orders. At the same time, due to the epidemic situation, the logistics is limited, and it is difficult for finished products and raw materials to enter or exit. Many regions have frequent control, which has affected the factory operation to some extent. In addition, in the off-season, it is hard to hide the weakness of the loom operating rate. The loom operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has decreased to below 56%.

Analysts from the business community believe that the current raw material market is weak, and the support for the cost side of spandex is declining. At the same time, the demand of the downstream terminal market is insufficient to follow up, and the rigid demand procurement is the main demand. It is expected that the price of spandex will still move downward in the short term.

This week (11.14-18), the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 18, the decline this week was 2.37%. At present, the adipic acid market price range is 9700-9900 yuan/ton. The main reasons for the decline: the upstream raw material pure benzene continued to be weak, the supply pressure remained and the demand was sluggish.

Industrial chain

The above figure shows that the adipic acid industry chain is weak as a whole this week, with the whole line declining. Adipic acid and the downstream declined strongly, especially the downstream PA66 dropped nearly 3% in the week.

Cost side: pure benzene continued to decline

This week, pure benzene continued its downward trend. Since the middle of October, pure benzene has been falling continuously. This week’s decline was 0.59%, slightly narrower than last week’s 2%. On the one hand, the market is still sluggish. However, the signs of stopping the decline are gradually emerging, mainly due to the decline of port inventory in East China and the strong performance of downstream styrene export. The shipment of pure benzene increased. The supply and demand fundamentals improved slightly. However, the situation of oversupply has not been reversed. Near the weekend, the price of pure benzene in East China was 6850-6950 yuan/ton.

It can be seen from the price comparison chart of pure benzene adipic acid above that the two are positively correlated and have a highly consistent trend. However, the curve opening shrinks in the near future, mainly because the decline of adipic acid is too strong, and the decline of pure benzene is restrained.

Supply side: Start up and stabilize the accumulated warehouse of the manufacturer

In terms of market supply: in terms of devices, the overall operating rate of adipic acid was flat this week, about 60%. Previously, Xinjiang Tianli devices resumed operation and Taihua increased its load, releasing supply; However, last week, Shenma entered the maintenance period at the beginning of the month for a set of devices. This week, Haili maintained a set of devices to stabilize the supply increase. Other units have not changed much, and the supply has not changed much, but the manufacturer is still in the stage of destocking.

Demand side: weak downstream demand

The downstream performance of adipic acid is weak, the market is weak, and the early inventory is mainly digested. The downstream factories are cautious in taking the goods, and sporadic orders need to be supplemented to ensure the normal start-up demand. Take PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of the business community, PA66 rose or dropped by 2.97% this week. The downstream still resisted the high price supply, and the shipment speed slowed down. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was 24500-25000 yuan/ton.

Future outlook

The business community believes that, on the cost side, crude oil shocks and declines, pure benzene continues to be weak, and the cost side cannot benefit in the short term. There are too many maintenance devices at the supply side, and the market continues to go out of stock, so the supply pressure may be relieved in the future. The demand side is relatively weak, and the supply and demand game will continue. Considering comprehensively, adipic acid may maintain a weak adjustment pattern. In the later stage, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the manufacturer’s commencement and the upstream pure benzene price trend.

The price of phthalic anhydride in the domestic market declined. As of the 22nd, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8987.5 yuan/ton, down 1.78% from last week’s price. The phthalic anhydride market continued to decline.

The market of phthalic anhydride declined, and the main influencing factors are as follows:

Supply side: sufficient supply of phthalic anhydride after unit restart

The supply of phthalic anhydride increased. Some domestic overhaul devices were restarted. Anhui Tongling Neighborhood phthalic anhydride began to ship normally. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride device of Xinyang Group operated stably. Affected by the restart of the device, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate rose to about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride production capacity was seriously overcapacity, the phthalic anhydride supply was sufficient, and the market price fell.

Cost end: raw orthobenzene remains low

The price of domestic ortho benzene remained low. As of the 22nd, the price of ortho benzene was 9000 yuan/ton, down 6.25% from the middle of October. Some units in the plant are still under repair. According to the manufacturer, the supply of raw materials for reaction is still tight. Affected by the decline of mixed xylene market, the market for ortho benzene is lower. Affected by this, the price trend of phthalic anhydride is downward.

Demand side: plasticizer market shocks and demand is sluggish

The price trend of the downstream DOP market of phthalic anhydride fluctuates. At present, the domestic DOP price is 10100 yuan/ton, and the domestic DOP enterprises start construction at a low level of about 50%. For phthalic anhydride, it is mainly purchased on demand, and the mainstream DOP price is 10000-1200 yuan/ton. Poor downstream demand is a negative impact of the phthalic anhydride market, and the phthalic anhydride market continues to decline.

In the future, the price of o-xylene is weak in the short term, the downstream plasticizer industry is sluggish, and the supply of phthalic anhydride has increased, adding negative factors. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will still fall in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market on November 14 was 12366 yuan/ton, and the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market on November 21 was 12333 yuan/ton. The domestic caprolactam price fell 0.27% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market prices fell slightly this week. The price of raw material pure benzene rebounded after falling, and the cost support of caprolactam was strengthened. This week, caprolactam units of some enterprises recovered and market supply increased. The downstream PA enterprises started steadily, and their demand for caprolactam was stable, so they bought as needed.

Raw material pure benzene market, this week, the price of pure benzene rose after falling. Due to the overall poor profitability of downstream products, the market trend continues to be weak, and the demand for pure benzene is weak. In the second half of the week, the crude oil fell continuously. The market atmosphere was depressed by bad news, and the price fell back. This week, the inventory of pure benzene at East China port dropped to 87300 tons, and the inventory was consumed slightly.

3、 Future market forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believed that the recent raw material pure benzene market rebounded after falling, and the cost side support was strengthened. The market supply of caprolactam increased, and the downstream demand continued to be sluggish. The transaction was average. It is expected that the caprolactam market will be dominated by weak and stable operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the isopropyl alcohol market fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic isopropyl alcohol was 6990 yuan/ton, and this Friday, the average price was 6920 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 1% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The isopropanol market fell this week. The price of raw material acetone is tepid, and the price of propylene is lowered. Downstream buying enthusiasm is not high, cautious operation. Up to now, most of the isopropanol market quotations in Shandong are around 6800-7000 yuan/ton; Most of the quotations in Jiangsu and Zhejiang isopropanol markets are about 7000-7100 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the price of acetone was stable this week. Up to now, acetone has been quoted at 5800-6100 yuan/ton. The market is more wait-and-see, and the transaction is cautious.

In terms of propylene, as of this Friday, the mainstream quotation of propylene market was 7200-7250 yuan/ton. Due to the large increase last week, the downstream appeared to wait and see, and the demand was restrained. In order to stabilize the flow of goods, the refinery lowered the price and gave up the increase. The current long short game in the propylene market is affected by the sharp drop of crude oil. Under the leadership of bad news, propylene prices are expected to continue to decline in a narrow range next week.

3、 Future market forecast

Isopropyl alcohol analysts from Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative believed that the price of raw material acetone was tepid and the price of propylene fell. The market price of isopropanol was lowered. At present, the market is light and the transaction is cautious. It is expected that the isopropanol market will operate in a narrow range in the short term. Pay attention to the subsequent raw material market trend.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 17, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9700.00 yuan/ton, 0.26% higher than the price on Monday, and 1.39% higher than the price on November 1.

The propylene oxide market rose slightly this week. From the perspective of cost, the market price of raw propylene has fallen recently, and the cost support is insufficient. From the perspective of supply and demand: some units have fluctuated in the near future, the supply has shrunk for a short time, the factory shipments have been smooth, and the prices are not subject to pressure. The downstream follow up on demand, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is getting stronger. On the 17th, the mainstream quotation of the propylene oxide market in Shandong was around 9150-9300 yuan/ton.

On November 16, the reference price of upstream propylene was 7236.60, up 2.84% compared with November 1 (7036.60).

The propylene oxide analysts of the business community believe that the current cost support is average, and the supply side is not under pressure at present. However, under the expectation of supply increase, the downstream is mainly wait-and-see, and the market is cautious. It is expected that the propylene oxide market will be weak in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

The price of domestic fluorite rose slightly. As of the 14th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3200 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from 3175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. At present, the price remains at a high level.

Supply side: the supply of low level raw materials is tight when the mine starts

The operating rate of domestic supply side remains low, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral survey is still difficult. Mining enterprises are faced with increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient starting of fluorite mines, shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials, limited starting of fluorite flotation, insufficient spot supply, serious epidemic in some regions, difficult transportation of fluorite, very tight supply of fluorite, and high fluorite prices.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid market rose, refrigerant price temporarily stabilized

The price trend of downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose. As of the 14th, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was 11185.71 yuan/ton, up 6.97% from the end of October. The domestic hydrofluoric acid market trend rose. In some northern regions, the epidemic situation was repeated, some devices were stopped, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid was reduced. The rising price of the hydrofluoric acid market formed a positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the fluorite market price remained high.

The market of downstream refrigerant products of the terminal is fair, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the demand for R22 market applications is guaranteed. The market quotation of R22 is between 18000-20000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price has not changed much, the trichloroethylene price remains unchanged, the cost support is still in place, and the R134a trading focus remains stable. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 25000-27000 yuan/ton. Previously, downstream refrigerant enterprises were all trading at a loss in order to compete for HFC production quota. With the implementation of three generation refrigerant quota, the history of quota competition in the refrigerant industry is coming to an end, which also provides a basis for the price increase of the industrial chain.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry in the downstream, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, has been continuously developed in emerging fields. It is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite cathode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand of new energy, semiconductor and other fields driving, the outlook of the fluorochemical industry chain has been supported in the long run.

Future market forecast: North fluorite enterprises are about to enter a seasonal shutdown period. In addition to the recent shortage of raw material fluorite ore supply, the refrigerant industry began to stock up in the fourth quarter. The new energy, semiconductor and new material industries developed rapidly, supporting the demand for fluorite for a long time. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, believes that the price of fluorite market is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price index of the domestic rare earth market fell slightly, and the domestic rare earth market was weak and hard to change. On November 14, the rare earth index was 628 points, down 2.90% from the beginning of the month, down 37.64% from the peak of 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and up 131.73% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The prices of domestic metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have declined to varying degrees. As of the 15th, the price of praseodymium and neodymium metal was 785000 yuan/ton, down 0.63% from the beginning of the month; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 642500 yuan/ton, 0.39% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of neodymium oxide was 715,000 yuan/ton, down 2.72% from the beginning of the month; The price of neodymium metal was 905000 yuan/ton, 0.55% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of praseodymium metal was 905000 yuan/ton, 4.23% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of praseodymium oxide was 665,000 yuan/ton, 8.28% lower than the price at the beginning of the month.

The circulation of light rare earths in China has decreased, the inventory of enterprises is overstocked, and the downstream inquiry list is cold. The procurement is poor, and the market situation of light rare earths is weak. The supply of light rare earths is mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia. Due to the limited transportation in Baotou and other regions, the manufacturer’s shipment is limited, and the production of enterprises is relatively normal, but the transportation is relatively difficult, and the spot supply has decreased.

Recently, the inventory of downstream magnetic material merchants still exists, and some manufacturers mainly digest the inventory. The purchasing mood is not good, resulting in the scarcity of orders, the difficulty of dealers in shipping, and the decline of rare earth market.

According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in China will reach 2.599 million and 2.505 million respectively in October 2022, up 11.1% and 6.9% year on year. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 762000 and 714000 respectively, with year-on-year growth of 87.6% and 81.7%, and the market share reached 28.5%. The production and sales of automobiles rose, the demand in the new energy field was still supported, and the decline in the domestic rare earth market was limited.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioners in the downstream of rare earths are in sustainable development. In the short term, the epidemic situation in some regions is repeated, the downstream procurement is limited, and the orders of magnetic material manufacturers are poor. The downstream businesses mainly digest the inventory. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, expects that the rare earth market is weak and difficult to change. In the long run, the demand for rare earths is still guaranteed, and there is no lack of the possibility of recovery.