1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market fell from 6833.33 yuan/ton at the weekend to 6500.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 4.88%. On November 13, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 32.99, unchanged from yesterday, 68.75% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and 9.53% higher than the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell slightly this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market of isobutyraldehyde upstream raw material market rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 7000.60 yuan/ton at the weekend to 7330.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 4.71%. The upstream raw material market price rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand, it had a positive impact on the isobutyraldehyde price. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol was adjusted at a low level, with the price of 9666.67 yuan/ton. The market of neopentyl glycol was consolidated at a low level, and the downstream demand was general, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future market forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in the middle and late November may fall slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly, with good cost support. However, the market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream market was consolidated at a low level, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement was general. The isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business community believe that the short-term isobutyraldehyde market may be subject to slight shock and decline under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, since November 6, the hydrogen peroxide market has warmed up and the price has risen. On November 6, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 823 yuan/ton. On November 11, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 846 yuan/ton, up 2.83%.

Increase in terminal demand Hydrogen peroxide market rose in a volatile manner

Since November 6, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals has improved, the number of orders has increased, and the market has improved. The prices of some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have risen. The hydrogen peroxide market in Anhui is relatively stable, with the mainstream quotation of 950 yuan/ton. The overall domestic hydrogen peroxide market has improved from the beginning of the month.

Li Bing, an hydrogen peroxide analyst from the business community, believes that the terminal demand will recover and the hydrogen peroxide market will rise in the future.

According to the data of the bulk commodity list of the business community, the formaldehyde market in Shandong was consolidated this week. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1383.33 yuan/ton. The current price fell 3.04% month on month and 16.16% year on year.

formaldehyde

This week, the formaldehyde market price in Shandong was stable. From the above figure, we can see that the recent fluctuation of formaldehyde market is not large, and this week it continues to be weak and consolidated. As of November 9, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1350-1400 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range, with average cost support. Due to the impact of public security incidents, logistics and transportation were not smooth, and the formaldehyde market was rarely traded. Recently, the situation has improved slightly, but the market has not improved significantly.

Upstream methanol: the market in East China rebounded at a low level, and the transaction was fair. Futures stopped falling and rebounded, production facilities of major enterprises in some regions stopped, supply decreased, and market buying improved. The logistics in some regions is limited but the demand is weak, and the downstream receiving price is weak.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has slightly retreated, giving formaldehyde a certain cost support. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative predicted that the formaldehyde price in Shandong would increase mainly due to shocks in the near future.

On November 7, Hong Kong stock fell to 15000 tons, which was the lowest point in the new year. The acetone market rebounded from the bottom, and major mainstream markets rose one after another. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average offer of acetone market in East China on November 7 was 5800 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton or 6.8% compared with the previous trading day; Across the country, acetone was quoted at 5887 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton or 3.2% compared with the previous trading day. On November 7, the offer was around 5800 yuan/ton in the East China market, 5900 yuan/ton in the South China region, and 5900-5950 yuan/ton in the North China and Shandong surrounding regions

Hong Kong stock fell to a new low in the year, and the expected arrivals were insufficient. In November, the supply of imported goods was obviously insufficient. It was reported that only a ship of 1000 tons from South Korea arrived at the port, while the port replenishment in November was mainly concentrated in the first ten days. It was reported that 6000 and 1000 tons were added to West China and Hengyang ports on the 8th, 3000 tons were added to West China ports on the 11th, and 10000 tons were still arriving at West China ports on the way until the 15th. At present, only 5000 tons from Saudi Arabia were added to West China ports at the end of the month.

The domestic operating rate is 70%, which is low compared with 90% of the annual level.

Some factories raised their listing prices to boost the market. Although there are only a small number of enterprises in this increase, it still provides a good support for the market. The mentality of the commodity holders is extremely large. In the case of relatively tight supply, the offer has been greatly raised, and it is difficult to clinch a deal at a low price of the actual order.

The market continued to decline for 15 days, with a large decline and rebounded from the bottom. Since the end of October, with the start of the settlement day, a new round of pricing cycle has been started, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is not high. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the daily price in East China was 6100 yuan/ton on October 20, and the acetone market had dropped to 5430 yuan/ton by November 6. The market continued to fall. The end plants mainly digested the contracts, and the market once entered a half month downturn, However, as the market fell all the way, some intermediate traders had low inventory expectations and market inquiry intentions, and the trading atmosphere was improved.

From the perspective of the business community, on the morning of the 8th, Lihua Yiweiyuan Acetone increased by 200 yuan/ton again, and executed 6100 yuan/ton. However, HKEx is currently at a low level, and there is no inventory pressure on the production enterprises. Today, we focus on the adjustment of major factories. It is expected that the market will continue to rise today. In the short term, acetone will still have a rising trend, and in the long term, we will focus on the production of new devices.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong Province increased from 9000.00 yuan/ton at the weekend to 9533.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 5.93%, and a year-on-year decrease of 27.04%. On November 6, the isooctanol commodity index was 70.10, unchanged from yesterday, down 49.02% from the highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle, and up 99.43% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and increased downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong mainstream isooctanol manufacturers rose slightly this week.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week, with the price dropping from 7340.60 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7000.60 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decline of 4.63%, 12.59% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market price fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand, the price of isooctanol was negatively affected.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP factory price rose slightly this week. The DOP price rose from 10,030.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10,320.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 2.89%, and a year-on-year drop of 17.11%. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly, and downstream customers increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol.

Insufficient upstream support, increased downstream demand, and the future market of isooctanol is bullish

In the middle and late November, Shandong’s isooctanol market may rise slightly. Although the upstream propylene market declined slightly and the cost support was insufficient, the downstream DOP market rose slightly and the downstream demand increased. According to the isooctanol analysts of the business community, the short-term domestic isooctanol market may rise slightly due to the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

Price trend of ethylene oxide in October

According to the data of the business cooperative, the average price of domestic ethylene oxide spot market on November 4 was 6800 yuan/ton, which was the same as the market average price at the beginning of the month (11.1); It was 9.33% lower than the average market price of 7500 yuan/ton on October 1.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

The price of ethylene oxide was dragged down by the downstream and moved down in October.

Fundamentals Overview

1. The domestic production capacity increased slightly. In October, 730,000 tons of new units were put into production in Satellite Petrochemical, and the domestic ethylene oxide production capacity increased to 7.51 million tons.

Later, Sanjiang Chemical, Shenghong Refining and Chemical, Hainan Refining and Chemical and other units are planned to be put into production. Among them, the 500000 t/a ethylene oxide unit of Sanjiang Chemical, which was originally planned to be put into operation in October 2022, will be put into operation in 2023, and the 100000 t/a ethylene oxide unit of Shenghong Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. and the 300000 t/a ethylene oxide unit of Hainan Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. are expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter.

2. The downstream demand is poor. The demand for polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer in the main downstream is expected to weaken greatly due to insufficient terminal building construction conditions. At present, the inventory of polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer enterprises has accumulated to a medium high level, the enthusiasm of enterprises for production has decreased, and the purchasing atmosphere for ethylene oxide is weak.

Future market forecast

The terminal demand is weak and the demand is restrained. Ethylene oxide mainly operates weakly in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 3, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 7533 yuan/ton, which was 533 yuan/ton higher than that on October 30 before the festival (the reference average price of n-butanol was 7000 yuan/ton), or 7.62% higher.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (10.31-11.03), the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province saw a rebound in the rising market, which has risen by more than 7% this week. The main factors supporting the rising market of n-butanol are from the following two aspects:

First, on the supply side, in the near future, due to the impact of special periods, the logistics and transportation in some areas of Shandong Province are limited, and the delivery to some n-butanol manufacturers is limited. In addition, the previous shutdown and maintenance of the factory currently occupy the space and restart, the spot supply inventory in the n-butanol plant is not high, and the overall supply pressure is small. The supply side gave support to the n-butanol market.

Second, on the demand side, at the end of October (October 30), the market price of n-butanol had fallen to a lower level, and the buying atmosphere in the downstream market had warmed up. In this week, the supply side of n-butanol had decreased. Under the condition that the downstream construction was stable, the on-site trading atmosphere had improved, the purchasing mentality was good, the goods were actively prepared, and the demand was ushering in a phased increase. The demand side also gives high support to n-butanol.

As of November 3, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China was around 7500-7700 yuan/ton, and the price increase this week was around 300-600 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream propylene, in November, the domestic propylene market as a whole continued the downward trend at the end of October. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene was 7004.60 yuan/ton on November 2, a decrease of 0.45% compared with November 1 (7036.60 yuan/ton).

Post market analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market is good, the sales pressure of n-butanol is not big, and the mentality of the industry is strong. In terms of cost, the downward trend of propylene price is difficult to provide effective support for n-butanol. The n-butanol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the situation of the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province is mainly rising slightly, and the momentum for continuous growth is limited. More attention should be paid to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride fell slightly this month, and the price of potassium chloride fell from 4066.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3900.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 4.10%. On October 30, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 102.63, unchanged from yesterday, 29.09% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 144.74 (2022-06-21), and 6.12% higher than the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of domestic mainstream potassium chloride dealers fell slightly this month: the arrival price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake at the end of the month was about 3660-3880 yuan/ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the price was temporarily stable, mainly based on contracts. At the end of this month, Xiangyang Youdeshi’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 3800 yuan/ton, a drop of 200 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month. At the end of this month, Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 4200 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the month. At the end of this month, Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 3700 yuan/ton, a drop of 300 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of this month. At the end of the month, 62% of the white potassium in the port was about 3600-3700 yuan/ton, 60% of the red granules in the port was about 3600-3700 yuan/ton, and 62% of the Russian white potassium in the border trade was about 3500-3600 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate fell slightly this month, from 9375.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9250.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 1.33%, up 15.99% year-on-year. The factory price of potassium nitrate fell slightly this month, from 6425.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6162.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a 4.09% drop, 8.59% higher than the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, and the downstream demand for potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Future market forecast

The market trend of potassium chloride in the first half of November may slightly fluctuate and fall, mainly finishing. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangger is stable, mainly based on contracts. The price of imported potassium chloride fell slightly. The downstream agricultural demand is weakened, the industrial demand is general, and the rigid demand procurement is dominant. In the future, the price of potassium chloride may fall in shock.

1、 Trend analysis

On the 1st, the nickel price rose significantly. According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the average price of nickel in the spot market was 194716.67 yuan/ton, up 4.56% from the previous trading day and 33.6% year on year; Nickel futures note rose 3.94% on the day.

Typhoon Landed Philippines Nickel Mine and Its Transportation Was Blocked

Typhoon “Nig” has landed in the Philippines and is gradually close to the coast of South China. Affected by the typhoon, the transportation of nickel ore is blocked. The price of nickel ore is still strong and the cost support is strong. In addition, with the arrival of the rainy season in the Philippines, shipments began to decrease, mine bidding prices soared, and supply side disturbances drove up mine prices.

LME may restrict the Russian nickel transaction

It is rumored that the London Metal Exchange (LME) in September issued a discussion on metal processing in Russia, which ended on October 28. Most market participants expect that the decision to restrict Russian nickel trading will be announced soon. The possibility of supply interruption of Russian Nickel as the main deliverable in LME nickel market has sharply increased the market sentiment.

The typhoon rainy season superimposed Russian nickel trade or limited rumors, and the new energy industry has a strong momentum of development. The demand for nickel for power batteries is growing, the price of battery grade nickel sulfate is rising, and the explicit inventory of pure nickel still remains destocking, leading to a sharp rise in nickel prices. However, the seasonal demand of “Gold Nine Silver Ten” faded, the demand growth slowed down, and the nickel fundamentals were weak. In addition, the factors that Russian nickel or a large number of domestic nickel and nickel beans joined the delivery in the previous period in the later period limited the space for nickel price to rise.

Downstream stainless steel price drop

In the first half of October, the price of stainless steel kept rising, which drove large steel mills to step up procurement. However, since the last ten days, the price of stainless steel has fallen back, and the recovery of terminal consumption has slowed down. The downward transmission of demand is limited. At present, the downstream are mostly wait-and-see.

According to the annual nickel price comparison chart of the business community in recent three years, the price in November is still stronger than that in October. The supply side is tight, but the demand for “Gold Nine Silver Ten” has subsided. In the case of weak supply and demand, nickel price is easily affected by macro factors, and the price fluctuates greatly. It is expected that the nickel price will continue to fluctuate in a wide range in the short term, and there is no condition for unilateral rise temporarily.

Commodity index: According to the monitoring of the business community, the natural rubber commodity index on October 31 was 33.12, down 0.92 points from yesterday, down 66.88% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01) in the cycle, and up 21.41% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: Trend of mainstream prices of natural rubber in October 2022

Commodity market: According to the monitoring of the business agency, the main spot market of natural rubber (Baodao full milk) in East China was about 12310 yuan/ton on October 1, and about 11170 yuan/ton on October 31, with a monthly drop of 9.26%. This price is not only the lowest since the same period in October 2021, but also the lowest since the same period in 2020. The market is very poor.

Figure 3: Weekly K Histogram of Natural Rubber Market in 2022

Industry: The monitoring of the business community shows that the current market atmosphere is empty, and the situation of oversupply is prominent. Supply: The global supply is stable, the current rubber production is still in the peak season, and the spot inventory continues to be high. Demand: The foreign demand continues to be sluggish, the tire enterprises’ orders are limited, the operating rate is low, the tire inventory is high, the supply pressure is high, and the demand for natural rubber procurement continues to be weak. Import: Statistics show that the export volume of natural rubber from Thailand, the main producer, in the first three quarters of the year increased by about 1% to 870000 tons. The export volume of Vietnam in the first three quarters is expected to increase by about 50% year on year. As the largest consumer of natural rubber, China’s import volume from the two countries in the first three quarters of the year is expected to increase by about 14% compared with last year. Exports: customs data show that China’s tire exports fell in September on a month on month basis, and the year-on-year growth rate of export value also fell significantly. Inventory: By the end of last week, the number of arrivals had increased, and domestic port inventory and social inventory had rebounded slightly. In terms of replacement rubber, the price of mixed rubber has continued to decline recently, and the price difference between all latex and mixed rubber has continued to widen.

Recent hot spots:

1. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers disclosed that from January to September 2022, the industrial added value of China’s automobile manufacturing industry increased by 6.9% year on year, 2.4 percentage points higher than that from January to August, and 3.7 percentage points higher than that of the manufacturing industry in the same period.

2. On October 25, the European Tyre and Rubber Manufacturers Association (ETRMA) released market data showing that in the third quarter of 2022, the sales volume of replacement tyres in Europe fell by 9% year-on-year to 63.53 million.

3. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in September 2022, China’s output of rubber tire casings was 754.54 million, an increase of 9.2% year on year. From January to September, the output of rubber tire casing decreased by 4.1% over the same period of last year to 63931.7 million.

4. On October 24, the General Administration of Customs released tire export data for September 2022 and the first three quarters. Among them, in September, China’s rubber tire exports totaled 600000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 70000 tons, or 1.8%; The export amount was RMB 10.601 billion, up 9.1% year on year, down 5.8 percentage points.

5. According to the data of the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), the sales volume of passenger cars in the European Union increased by 9.6% to 787870 in September, two consecutive months and 4.4% in August. However, this growth is mainly due to the low comparison base in September 2021, when the shortage of semiconductors hindered automobile production; In the first three quarters of 2022, the European passenger car market shrank by 9.9% to 6.78 million vehicles.

6. In September 2022, China’s heavy truck market will sell about 52000 vehicles (invoicing caliber), up 13% month on month and 12% lower than 59200 vehicles in the same period last year. 52,000 units are the lowest sales volume in September since 2016, and September this year is also the 17th consecutive month of decline in the heavy truck market since May last year. Downstream demand is sluggish and inventory is high, and heavy truck sales are less than expected..

Figure 4: Comparison Chart of Annual Spot Market Trend of Natural Rubber from 2020 to 2022

As can be seen from the above figure, the natural rubber market continued to fall in October 2022, much worse than that in the same period of 2020 and 2021.

Future forecast: China’s tire export was under pressure in the third quarter, and continued to fall back in September. At present, the market pessimism is spreading. Many exporters report poor sales in foreign markets, economic recession expectations, weak overseas demand, and the impact of multiple public health events on the industry continues to be negative. The supply is strong, the downstream demand of natural rubber continues to be weak, the market is pessimistic, and the export situation is poor. Excluding the factors of technical rebound, it is expected that the weakness of natural rubber in the future market will continue in the short term.