Commodity index: According to the monitoring of the business community, the natural rubber commodity index on October 31 was 33.12, down 0.92 points from yesterday, down 66.88% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01) in the cycle, and up 21.41% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: Trend of mainstream prices of natural rubber in October 2022

Commodity market: According to the monitoring of the business agency, the main spot market of natural rubber (Baodao full milk) in East China was about 12310 yuan/ton on October 1, and about 11170 yuan/ton on October 31, with a monthly drop of 9.26%. This price is not only the lowest since the same period in October 2021, but also the lowest since the same period in 2020. The market is very poor.

Figure 3: Weekly K Histogram of Natural Rubber Market in 2022

Industry: The monitoring of the business community shows that the current market atmosphere is empty, and the situation of oversupply is prominent. Supply: The global supply is stable, the current rubber production is still in the peak season, and the spot inventory continues to be high. Demand: The foreign demand continues to be sluggish, the tire enterprises’ orders are limited, the operating rate is low, the tire inventory is high, the supply pressure is high, and the demand for natural rubber procurement continues to be weak. Import: Statistics show that the export volume of natural rubber from Thailand, the main producer, in the first three quarters of the year increased by about 1% to 870000 tons. The export volume of Vietnam in the first three quarters is expected to increase by about 50% year on year. As the largest consumer of natural rubber, China’s import volume from the two countries in the first three quarters of the year is expected to increase by about 14% compared with last year. Exports: customs data show that China’s tire exports fell in September on a month on month basis, and the year-on-year growth rate of export value also fell significantly. Inventory: By the end of last week, the number of arrivals had increased, and domestic port inventory and social inventory had rebounded slightly. In terms of replacement rubber, the price of mixed rubber has continued to decline recently, and the price difference between all latex and mixed rubber has continued to widen.

Recent hot spots:

1. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers disclosed that from January to September 2022, the industrial added value of China’s automobile manufacturing industry increased by 6.9% year on year, 2.4 percentage points higher than that from January to August, and 3.7 percentage points higher than that of the manufacturing industry in the same period.

2. On October 25, the European Tyre and Rubber Manufacturers Association (ETRMA) released market data showing that in the third quarter of 2022, the sales volume of replacement tyres in Europe fell by 9% year-on-year to 63.53 million.

3. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in September 2022, China’s output of rubber tire casings was 754.54 million, an increase of 9.2% year on year. From January to September, the output of rubber tire casing decreased by 4.1% over the same period of last year to 63931.7 million.

4. On October 24, the General Administration of Customs released tire export data for September 2022 and the first three quarters. Among them, in September, China’s rubber tire exports totaled 600000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 70000 tons, or 1.8%; The export amount was RMB 10.601 billion, up 9.1% year on year, down 5.8 percentage points.

5. According to the data of the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), the sales volume of passenger cars in the European Union increased by 9.6% to 787870 in September, two consecutive months and 4.4% in August. However, this growth is mainly due to the low comparison base in September 2021, when the shortage of semiconductors hindered automobile production; In the first three quarters of 2022, the European passenger car market shrank by 9.9% to 6.78 million vehicles.

6. In September 2022, China’s heavy truck market will sell about 52000 vehicles (invoicing caliber), up 13% month on month and 12% lower than 59200 vehicles in the same period last year. 52,000 units are the lowest sales volume in September since 2016, and September this year is also the 17th consecutive month of decline in the heavy truck market since May last year. Downstream demand is sluggish and inventory is high, and heavy truck sales are less than expected..

Figure 4: Comparison Chart of Annual Spot Market Trend of Natural Rubber from 2020 to 2022

As can be seen from the above figure, the natural rubber market continued to fall in October 2022, much worse than that in the same period of 2020 and 2021.

Future forecast: China’s tire export was under pressure in the third quarter, and continued to fall back in September. At present, the market pessimism is spreading. Many exporters report poor sales in foreign markets, economic recession expectations, weak overseas demand, and the impact of multiple public health events on the industry continues to be negative. The supply is strong, the downstream demand of natural rubber continues to be weak, the market is pessimistic, and the export situation is poor. Excluding the factors of technical rebound, it is expected that the weakness of natural rubber in the future market will continue in the short term.

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, as of October 28, 2022, the domestic market price of diethylene glycol was 5600 yuan/ton. Compared with October 1, 2022 (the reference price of diethylene glycol was 5193 yuan/ton), the price increased by 307 yuan/ton, or 7.83%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring of the business community that the diethylene glycol market has been rising as a whole since October (10.1-10.28). In early October, after the National Day holiday, the diethylene glycol market ushered in a broad upward trend. There are two main factors supporting the rise of the market focus of diethylene glycol. In terms of cost, the high rise of raw material ethylene glycol after the festival gives diethylene glycol cost support. In terms of supply, the low volume of goods in the diethylene glycol warehouse area after the festival gave support to the diethylene glycol market due to the tight supply side. As of October 19, the market price of diethylene glycol was around 5550-5650 yuan/ton.

In the middle and late October, the downstream’s acceptance of high prices decreased, and the diethylene glycol market fell slightly, but the fundamentals were good and continued to support the market. From the 24th, the diethylene glycol market was strong and rising again. The diethylene glycol market price was around 5600-5800 yuan/ton. However, near the end of the month, the diethylene glycol market price fell slightly due to the decline of crude oil and the reduction of shipments.

As of October 28, the market price of diethylene glycol was around 5500-5700 yuan/ton, exceeding 7% in October. At present, the trading atmosphere in the diethylene glycol field is general, and the actual orders are mainly negotiated according to the quantity.

At present, the trading and investment atmosphere in the diethylene glycol market is slightly weak, and the supply and demand transmission is general. The diethylene glycol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the diethylene glycol market will mostly adjust its operation in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1440 yuan/ton on October 1, and 1510 yuan/ton on October 27. The price of ammonium sulfate rose 4.86% this month.

2、 Market analysis

According to the weekly rise and fall chart from August 1, 2022 to October 23, 2022, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate has increased a lot in the cycle. The maximum increase was 9.96% in the week of August 29, and the maximum decrease was -5.61% in the week of August 1. Since October, it has risen slightly, with the largest increase of 1.85% in the week of October 3.

Ammonium sulfate prices rose sharply this month. Ammonium sulfate market fluctuated slightly, with fair trading atmosphere and increased inquiries. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the high price is still a wait-and-see attitude. Due to the stable terminal demand, the manufacturer’s price is mainly high. Due to the epidemic situation and environmental protection, the operating rate of coke plants decreased, and the supply of ammonium sulfate decreased. At present, the market is not very volatile, and the industry is mainly cautious. As of October 27, the main factory quotation of coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong was about 1490 yuan/ton, and that in Hebei was about 1450 yuan/ton. Domestic ammonium sulfate, the factory quotation in Shandong is 1450-1590 yuan/ton.

The downstream compound fertilizer market demand was flat this month, with weak stable operation as the main factor. The wait-and-see mood was strong, waiting for the introduction of the winter reserve policy. The construction of compound fertilizer plants declined, and the demand for raw materials weakened. The urea cost is well supported, and the agricultural demand is small. The production of urea in Shanxi is limited to 150000 tons per day. In the future, urea rose slightly in shock, which was beneficial to the ammonium sulfate market.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the ammonium sulfate analyst of the business agency, the demand for ammonium sulfate has been flat in recent days, and the transactions on the market are average. The downstream still resists the high price of ammonium sulfate, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. The supply of ammonium sulfate in the plant is reduced due to the reduction of the operating rate of the manufacturer. It is expected that in the short term, the ammonium sulfate market will continue to operate mainly in shock and consolidation, and the price will fluctuate in a narrow range.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 26, 2022, the reference price of the domestic silicone DMC market was 17640 yuan/ton. Compared with the price on October 1, 2022 (the reference price of the silicone DMC was 18200 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 560 yuan/ton, or 3.08%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since October (10.1-10.26), the overall domestic silicone DMC market has shown a weak downward trend, and the market focus has been gradually explored in the sorting process. The main factors influencing the decline of silicone DMC market are as follows:

1、 On the demand side, after the National Day holiday, the silicone DMC market started steadily. However, after the festival, the demand side was cautious, the downstream had a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the market mentality was general. The overall stock removal after the festival was less than expected. In the middle of October, with insufficient demand support, some manufacturers began to reduce the price of organic silicon DMC, with a reduction rate of 200-500 yuan/ton.

2、 In terms of cost, after the National Day holiday, although the metal silicon market was operating at a high level, due to the general impact of trading orders, most monomer plants still actively took orders by exchanging price for quantity. Therefore, the overall support of cost was general.

3、 In terms of supply, in October, the overall inventory of silicone DMC was under pressure, the shipment was slow, the downstream replenishment was rigorous, and the contradiction between supply and demand was prominent.

Near the end of the month, the overall market situation of silicone DMC has a slight recovery trend. Since October 24, Shandong Dachang has raised the ex factory price of silicone DMC twice, with a cumulative increase of 300 yuan/ton. In the past two days, the market order taking phenomenon has improved. In addition, the monomer factory is actively adjusting the operating rate and moderately reducing the supply pressure. As of October 26, the domestic market price of silicone DMC has referred to 17600-18000 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, since October (10.1-10.25), the domestic metal silicon (product name: 441 #) market has been running steadily and upward. On October 25, the reference price of metal silicon was 21690 yuan/ton, up 2.02% compared with October 1 (21260 yuan/ton).

Prediction of the future trend of silicone DMC market

At present, the trading and investment atmosphere in the silicone DMC market is moderate. Towards the end of the month, Shandong’s big factories have continuously raised the price of silicone DMC to give the industry some confidence. The silicone DMC data analyst of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market will mainly operate stably and in a consolidated way, and more attention should be paid to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

The market of plasticizer rose sharply and fell sharply

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the plasticizer market will rise and fall sharply in 2022, with the highest prices of DOP and DOTP being 13400 yuan/ton and 13550 yuan/ton respectively, the lowest prices of DOP and DOTP being 8775 yuan/ton and 8975 yuan/ton respectively, and the price difference being 4625 yuan/ton and 4575 yuan/ton respectively; The corresponding maximum price of DBP is 12333.33 yuan/ton, the minimum price is 8600 yuan/ton, and the price difference is 3733.33 yuan/ton. The price difference between the highest and lowest prices of DBP is significantly lower than that of DOP and DOTP. The overall plasticizer market is choppy and the trend of DBP is relatively stable.

DBP capacity and operating rate

DBP capacity expanded to reach the peak of 1.05 million tons/year in 2015, and then the capacity contracted, and some units were in a long-term shutdown or unstable production state; By 2021, the DBP capacity will shrink to 850000 tons (including some long-term shutdown devices); In recent years, some small DBP enterprises have begun to withdraw from the market, and the capacity of DBP plants has shown signs of shrinking. However, due to the expansion of major large plants, the capacity of DBP plants is relatively stable. The overcapacity of plasticizer market will be particularly prominent in 2022, and the operating rate of DOP and DOTP enterprises will drop from about 60% in previous years to less than 50% in 2022; However, the situation of DBP overcapacity is relatively stable. The operating rate of DBP enterprises is maintained at about 30% to 40% all the year round. With its unique performance and specific downstream, the market is relatively stable for the time being. The capacity and operating rate of DBP in 2022 will not change much compared with previous years.

Future market expectation

Analysts of DBP data from Business Press believed that DBP could not completely exit the plasticizer industry in a short time. First of all, it has experienced time and quality inspection in the application of plastic processing fields such as film, leather products, wire and cable, footwear and other terminal products; Second, there is a certain gap between the application performance of some environment-friendly plasticizers and DBP in aging resistance, flexibility, etc. The decline in the proportion of DBP plasticizers will be the trend of the times, and the elimination or conversion of backward DBP production capacity will also be the mainstream of future enterprises. As the downstream demand, capacity and operating rate of DBP have been relatively stable in recent years, the future price trend of plasticizer DBP mainly depends on the price trend of raw materials phthalic anhydride and n-butanol. Recently, the prices of phthalic anhydride and n-butanol have fallen, and it is expected that the future DBP prices will fall in shock.

According to the data of the business community, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil as of October 23 was 6630.00 yuan/ton (tax included), which was stable compared with the price of 6610.00 yuan/ton on October 17.

On October 23, the fuel oil commodity index was 134.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 1.05% from the peak of 135.70 (2022-06-21) in the cycle, and up 191.41% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The international crude oil price fluctuated downward, and the cost support of the ship fuel market was limited. According to the business community, as of October 23, the self raised low sulfur price of 180cst fuel oil in the Zhoushan area was 6600 yuan/ton, and the self raised low sulfur price of 120cst fuel oil was 6700 yuan/ton; The price of 180cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil in CNGC Shanghai is 6650 yuan/ton, and the price of 120cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil is 6750 yuan/ton.

International crude oil prices fell in shock. Since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to cut their production target by 2 million barrels per day during the National Day holiday, the expectation of tight crude oil supply has led to a rise in oil prices. However, the release of reserves in the United States followed. In addition, against the background of high global inflation, the market strengthened the expectation of the central bank to significantly increase interest rates. The expectation of economic recession risk weakened the demand for fuel. In the short term, it offset the positive impact of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies (OPEC+) to significantly reduce production, and the price of crude oil fell accordingly.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory increased, providing limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG): As of the week ended October 19, Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory fell 1.393 million barrels to 15.184 million barrels, a three-month low. Singapore’s medium distillate oil inventory decreased by 1.176 million barrels to 6.963 million barrels, the lowest level in four months. Singapore’s fuel oil inventory rose 839000 barrels to a two-week high of 21.04 million barrels.

Future forecast: the international crude oil market has been in shock recently, and the domestic raw material price is strong at present; Affected by the domestic epidemic situation, port refueling is currently limited, and the transaction is mainly just in demand. In the near future, the ship fuel market is mainly stable. At present, the 180CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6700 yuan/ton, and the 120CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6800 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be dominated in the near future.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business community, the domestic potassium sulfate market is stable and weak in the near future, and the spot prices of various brands are temporarily stable. As of October 22, the average price of 50 domestic potassium sulfate granules was 4100 yuan/ton, up or down by – 4.65% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Recently, the momentum of domestic potash fertilizer market continues to be low, the trading atmosphere is weak, the operating rate of potassium sulfate Mannheim type enterprises remains low, and the load of resource-based enterprises is yet to be restored. Before the festival, some enterprises such as SDIC Luoke produced compound fertilizer in autumn to increase the load, but the effect was limited, and the industry load was still around 24%. The supply of potassium sulfate enterprises is low, but there is generally a certain amount of inventory. There are abundant goods on the market, and the pressure on the supply side is obvious. The spot price is dragged down. The upstream potassium chloride is weak. Recently, the volume of goods passing through border trade and ports has decreased, but the overall supply of goods is abundant and the transaction is insufficient. Downstream potassium carbonate, potassium nitrate and other enterprises purchase slowly, and potassium chloride does not support processing potassium sulfate enterprises. Downstream consumption is weak, trading and investment in the northern market are rarely heard, the supply of goods is slow to ship, the mentality of businessmen is weak, and the market offer is low.

3、 Future market forecast

The potassium sulfate analysts of the business community believed that the domestic potassium sulfate market was stable in the middle of October, while the potassium chloride market was weak. The domestic potassium sulfate cost support is weak, the supply side is sufficient, and the demand side follow-up is poor. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price will operate at a low level due to the continuous poor demand in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 17, the price of lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product, was 160000 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium iron phosphate remained stable. Compared with the same period last week, the price of lithium iron phosphate remained unchanged. At present, the downstream just needs to purchase. The purchasing atmosphere is general, the supply is normal, and the operating rate is normal. Lithium iron phosphate is mainly ordered and delivered by contract customers. New orders are not accepted, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is fair, At present, the mainstream price range is 155000-160000 yuan/ton.

The price of lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product, is 160000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate is mainly stable, and the price range is maintained at 155000-160000 yuan/ton. At present, the downstream just needs to purchase. The purchasing atmosphere is general, and the overall market remains stable. The manufacturer’s supply of goods is limited to new customers. The contract customers are mainly responsible for ordering and shipping. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is fair.

Upstream lithium carbonate: As of October 13, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 521000 yuan/ton, up 3.95% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (October 9, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 501200 yuan/ton). Stable operation is the main factor. The industrial level is 505000 yuan/ton. The battery level is 530000 yuan/ton. With the arrival of the fourth quarter, there is a strong bullish atmosphere.

Chemical commodity index: On October 16, the chemical index was 1005 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.21% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 68.06% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the analysts of LiFePO4 from the business community, the market of LiFePO4 will remain stable and the mainstream price will remain at 155000-160000 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price trend of TDI in East China continued to rise. On October 18, the average market price in East China was 27166.67 yuan/ton, 26.95% higher than the price of 21400.00 yuan/ton on October 10, and 35.33% higher than the beginning of the month.

The TDI market is running on the strong side. The demand for TDI in the overseas market is strong. The factory maintains export orders as the main part. In terms of domestic supply, the TDI factory continues to supply in limited quantities. The spot market is tight, and the bullish atmosphere is strong. The holders of goods are reluctant to sell, and the quotations follow the market sharply. As of the 18th, the quotation range of domestic goods in the distribution market in East China is about 26000-27000 yuan/ton, and the quotation range of Shanghai goods is 27000-27500 yuan/ton. The actual order negotiation is the main part.

The upstream toluene market ran smoothly, and the price trend was temporarily stable. As of October 18, the domestic average price of toluene was about 7790 yuan/ton, up 1.43% from the beginning of the month. The downstream demand of toluene is weak, the terminal gasoline continues to fall, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the toluene market is weak.

According to the analysis of the future market trend, TDI data engineer of the business agency believed that the overseas market demand was strong, the domestic downstream demand was average, the factory continued to supply in limited quantities, the market spot was tight, the bullish atmosphere was strong, the supplier’s offer was firm, and the supplier’s benefit continued. It was expected that the TDI market would operate at a high level, and the downstream follow-up situation would be specifically concerned.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8368.57 yuan/ton on October 7, and the average price was 8528.57 yuan/ton on October 17, with an increase of 1.91% during the period, 6.87% higher than that on September 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 9980 yuan/ton on October 7 and 10050.00 yuan/ton on October 17, with an increase of 0.70% during the period, up 5.60% compared with August 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 8416.67 yuan/ton on October 7 and 8533.33 yuan/ton on October 17, with an increase of 1.39% during the period, 0.39% higher than that on August 1.

After the festival (October 7-17), the domestic polyethylene spot market rose as a whole, and the three major spot varieties showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with the increase greater than the decrease. During the holidays, international crude oil rose one after another, bringing obvious benefits to the market on the cost side. After the festival, the polyethylene market was driven higher by this. In addition, the downstream storage and replenishment demand after the festival, petrochemical enterprises had a strong mentality, and the ex factory price was higher. However, as the international crude oil stopped rising and fell after the festival, the market was in a bad mood. With the price rising, the downstream acceptance was limited, and they were somewhat resistant to the high price. The enthusiasm for entering the market became weaker, and the market transaction atmosphere became weaker than in the early stage. The price of polyethylene fell back, and the majority of shipments were made at the margin.

From October 7 to 17, the futures market of Liansu rose first and then fell. The decline was greater than the increase, which brought some bad news to the spot. On October 17, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2301 was 7896, the highest price was 7926, the lowest price was 7791, the closing price was 7809, the previous settlement price was 7898, the settlement price was 7855, down 89, the trading volume was 421259, the position was 421870, and the daily position increased 3908. (Quotation unit: yuan/ton)

In terms of current raw materials, the international crude oil price is weak and the cost side brings bad news. On the demand side, with the end of replenishment after the festival, the downstream has limited ability to accept high prices, and the enthusiasm for entering the market has weakened. On the supply side, the current market supply is mainly increased, and the market lacks of advantages. It is expected that the polyethylene spot market will mainly decline in the short term.