According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 23, the average price quoted by domestic top grade DMF enterprises was 5425 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.46% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the overall market is stable and strong, with smooth shipments.

This week, the DMF trend is stable, moderate to strong, and the purchasing atmosphere is average. Currently, the mainstream price range is around 5400 yuan/ton, and the operating rate is mainly stable. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and downstream purchases are made on demand. Merchants are willing to make concessions and take orders, and shipments are normal.

Chemical Index: On April 22, the chemical index stood at 907 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 35.21% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 51.67% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, DMF will operate steadily, moderately, and strongly.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the “V” shaped trend of the 1 # tin ingot market in East China this week (4.07-4.14) was observed. On April 7th, the average market price was 196000 yuan/ton, and on April 14th, the average market price was 197160 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.59%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors, and have fallen by 11.35% in a single month since February 2023. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has been fluctuating frequently recently and the overall trend is weak.

In terms of the futures market, Shanghai Tin fell first and then rose this week. On the 13th, the US dollar index fell 0.51% to 101.01, the lowest point in nearly two months. Thursday’s data showed a slowdown in US inflation, boosting the metal market, and the metal market rose generally. As of the close on the 14th, the main 2305 contract of Shanghai Tin rose 2.52% in a single day.

Fundamentally speaking, there is not much change in domestic supply and demand at present. The mentality of high prices in smelters still exists, and the overall domestic production remains at a relatively stable level of around 60%. The supply at the mining end is still slightly tight. In terms of demand, it remains weak and there are few signs of recovery in the short term. However, recent domestic inventory has slightly declined overall, which has boosted tin prices to some extent. Overall, downstream demand is still weak, and it is expected that the overall operation of the tin market will remain weak due to the lack of actual demand support. In the short term, the impact of domestic macro factors on tin prices is still limited, and it is necessary to focus on the impact of domestic and foreign macro factors on the market.

On April 15th, the base metal index stood at 1229 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 23.95% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 91.43% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 15th week of 2023 (4.10-4.14), there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices. Among them, there was 1 commodity that increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were magnesium (25.38%), silver (4.82%), and nickel (4.53%). There are a total of 11 products with a month on month decrease, and 5 products with a decrease of over 5%, accounting for 21.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products in the decline were neodymium oxide (-8.26%), praseodymium oxide (-7.48%), and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-6.00%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.27%.

Zinc prices slightly increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 14th, the zinc price was 22436 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.27% compared to April 7th’s zinc price of 22154 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 1.52% compared to April 1st’s zinc price of 22782 yuan/ton. US inflation data has fallen, international market conditions are expected to improve, and zinc prices have slightly increased this week.

US inflation growth rate data has fallen

On Wednesday, the US March CPI data was released and the Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes were released. The US March CPI rose by 5% year-on-year, with an expected 5.2%, the lowest since May 2021 and the ninth consecutive month of slower growth; The month on month increase is 0.1%, with an expected 0.2%. The US CPI in March decreased from 6.0% in February to 5.0%, indicating a significant decline in US inflation growth data, a significant decline in the US dollar index, and a rebound in international market economic expectations.

>Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the growth rate of inflation in the United States has fallen, the international market economy is expected to warm up, the zinc price in the London LME market has increased, and the upward momentum of zinc prices in the domestic zinc market has increased. China’s imports and exports have gradually rebounded, with an increase in downstream zinc oxide orders and a rebound in downstream demand in the zinc market. Yunnan’s recent power shortage is expected to lead to a decrease in zinc smelting operations in the future, and the supply of zinc in the market is expected to be tight. Overall, the supply of zinc in the future is tight, and demand is expected to rebound. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate slightly in the future.

The butadiene rubber market saw a significant decline in March. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of March 31, the price of butadiene rubber was 11220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.27% from the beginning of the month at 12100 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has weakened; In March, the construction of downstream tire factories fluctuated slightly, and the new demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was weak. In the late March, the market turnover was light, the ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber dropped significantly, and the market price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell.

Supply side: The supply side of butadiene rubber fluctuated slightly in March. The supply of butadiene rubber increased slightly in the later stage.

Cost side: In March, the price of butadiene decreased, while the cost side of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber significantly decreased. According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of March 31, the price of butadiene was 8551 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.96% from 9712 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The natural rubber market fell in March, which had a bearish impact on butadiene rubber. As of March 31st, the price was at 11525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.11% from 12020 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: The operating rate of downstream tire enterprises in March has temporarily remained around 70%, and there has been no significant increase in demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. In addition, the low price of natural rubber makes cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber even less advantageous. The demand side for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in March was mainly weak.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that downstream construction has not significantly improved the demand for butadiene rubber. In the short term, the demand for butadiene rubber is weak, and raw material prices are low. The cost of butadiene rubber is declining. However, multiple oil producing countries are jointly reducing production, and international crude oil prices may be operating at high levels. The cost of butadiene rubber may be further supported. Overall, it is expected that butadiene rubber will consolidate weakly in the short term, and there is still an upward opportunity in the medium to long term.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, the average mainstream price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refiners in March was 2806.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 1626.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month. During the month, it fell by 1180 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 42.05%.

The petroleum coke commodity index on March 31 was 126.51, down 1.94 points from yesterday, down 69.05% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 points (2022-05-11), and up 89.13% from the lowest point of 66.89 points on March 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In March, the price of refined petroleum coke plummeted by more than 42%. The storage of petroleum coke in domestic ports is at a high level, and port traders are actively selling imported petroleum coke to recover funds. However, recently, imported petroleum coke has gradually arrived and warehoused in ports, making it difficult to change the high storage trend of petroleum coke in ports. The operating rate of delayed coking units in China remains high, with sufficient market supply. Local refineries actively reduce prices and arrange inventory, resulting in poor delivery and investment. Currently, the petroleum coke market is in a situation of oversupply.

In early March, the price of crude oil rose, and China, as the largest importer and second largest consumer of crude oil, had a profound impact on the oil market. The recent strong performance of macroeconomic data has further strengthened market bullish expectations. The collapse of a Silicon Valley bank in the United States in mid March, coupled with the disappointing inflation report data from the United States, has raised concerns about financial risks in the market. In addition, the jitters of Credit Suisse have hit the financial market, putting pressure on risky assets such as stock markets and crude oil, as well as the negative impact of a more than expected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and a decrease in China’s crude oil imports, which has subsequently dragged down crude oil prices. In the second half of the year, Iraq stopped exporting crude oil from its semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, while the impact of risks on the banking industry in Europe and the United States weakened, and the easing of supply and demand concerns drove up oil prices.

In 2023, the downstream metal silicon spot market continues to decline, and market transactions are light. In a short period of time, the weak situation of metal silicon is difficult to change. Southwest Silicon Plant suffered a comprehensive loss and increased shutdown and maintenance. Recently, Yunnan issued a notice on the special rectification work plan for safety production, and silicon enterprises in Yunnan have been involved. Currently, due to the continuous downward impact of the petroleum coke market, the calcined coke market continues to decline, with a decline of over 40% since 2023. Aluminum carbon companies are in a strong wait-and-see mood, mainly purchasing on demand, mainly consuming pre inventory, and with limited support for the local refining petroleum coke market. The terminal spot electrolytic aluminum market has recently reduced production in Yunnan-Guizhou region, but the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is still relatively high, with a trend of destocking. On the 31st, the spot price was 18676.67 yuan/ton.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

The petroleum coke analyst from Business News predicts that the inventory of petroleum coke in domestic ports is currently at a high level for a long time, with a stable operation rate of delayed coking units in China, sufficient market supply, limited procurement at the downstream demand end, and excessive market supply. In the near future, the situation of oversupply in the domestic market will continue. Local refining enterprises are actively reducing prices to inventory, and prices continue to plummet in late March. Some local refining enterprises are closing their stocks and waiting. On the 31st, the petroleum coke refining market was mixed, with some easing in the decline. It is expected that the petroleum coke refining market in the near future may be dominated by weakness.

According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, the domestic cyclohexanone market was weak in March. From March 1st to 30th, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China fell from 9483 yuan/ton to 9440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46%, with a maximum amplitude of 1.19% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.09%.

At the beginning of the month, the raw material pure benzene rose, with upward cost support. The supply of cyclohexanone has decreased, and manufacturers have raised their external quotations. However, the demand for cyclohexanone in the downstream market is mainly high, and the market transaction is average. Therefore, the market growth of cyclohexanone is limited. In the first ten days of this month, the raw material pure benzene was relatively strong, with good cost support. At the same time, some cyclohexanone shipments decreased, resulting in good supply, but terminal demand was weak. Downstream chemical fibers just needed to follow up, and the transaction was average. In the middle of June, the raw material pure benzene significantly decreased, and cost support weakened. Downstream chemical fibers and solvents are just in need of procurement, and the actual price per unit is weakening. Near the end of the month, the spot price of raw material pure benzene was weak and volatile, and cost support weakened. At the same time, some manufacturers increased their supply, while downstream demand was general, the industry’s mentality was weak, and the focus of the cyclohexanone market fell.

On the cost side, on March 30, the benchmark price of pure benzene for the business community was 7213.83 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.55% compared to the beginning of this month (7103.83 yuan/ton). The domestic market price of pure benzene has increased slightly, and the production has decreased. Pure benzene has been removed from warehouses in East China ports, and there are still maintenance plans for later supply devices, easing the pressure on domestic pure benzene supply. The cost of cyclohexanone is significantly positive.

On the supply side, the unit operating rate in the cyclohexanone industry remained at around 70%, with a slight increase in supply. The main production enterprise, Shanxi Lanhua, is scheduled to stop for maintenance on February 28th, with a plan of one month; Jining Bank of China parking and maintenance; Shutdown and maintenance of Shijiazhuang coking unit. The short-term supply of cyclohexanone was slightly negative.

On the demand side, on March 30, the benchmark price of caprolactam for the business community was 12100.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.82% compared to the beginning of this month (12200.00 yuan/ton). The price of caprolactam, the main downstream product of cyclohexanone, fell. The recent weakening of upstream crude oil prices has affected the purchasing mentality in the downstream market. The overall caprolactam market is still cautious. In addition, some enterprises in the north have increased inventory pressure and partially reduced prices for sales. The overall price center of the cyclohexanone spot market is tending to be lower. The demand side for cyclohexanone was negatively affected.

In the future market forecast, cyclohexanone analysts from the business agency predict that the short-term domestic cyclohexanone market volatility will be dominated by consolidation.

Aluminum fluoride prices fluctuated and fell in March

According to data from the Business News Agency, as of March 29, domestic aluminum fluoride prices were quoted at 9925 yuan/ton, down 6.15% from 10575 yuan/ton on March 1. Downstream demand is poor, and costs decrease. In March, aluminum fluoride prices fluctuated and fell.

Raw material prices fell first and then rose in March

According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, as of March 29, the price of fluorite was 3037.50 yuan/ton, down from 2981.25 yuan/ton on March 1 and up by 1.89%. Compared with 3050 yuan/ton at the end of last month and February 28, the price of fluorite decreased by 0.41%; As of March 29, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9800 yuan/ton, down from 9771.43 yuan/ton on March 1 and up by 0.29%. Compared with 9828.57 yuan/ton at the end of last month and February 28, the price of hydrofluoric acid fluctuated by 0.29%. In March, the prices of raw materials such as fluorite and hydrofluoric acid fell first and then rose, while the cost support for aluminum fluoride remained. In the future, the prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid rebounded and rose at the end of the month, increasing the upward momentum for aluminum fluoride.

Stable downstream demand

As can be seen from the electrolytic aluminum price trend chart of the Business Club, as of March 29, the quoted price of electrolytic aluminum was 18603.33 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 1.01% compared to the volatile price of 18416.67 yuan/ton on March 1. In March, the electrolytic aluminum market fluctuated and consolidated, and the demand for aluminum fluoride temporarily stabilized, while the support for the rising price of aluminum fluoride remained.

As can be seen from the cryolite price trend chart of the business agency, as of March 29, the cryolite price was quoted at 7825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.88% compared to the price of 7975 yuan/ton on March 1. In March, the cryolite market fluctuated and fell, resulting in poor demand for aluminum fluoride. The downward pressure on aluminum fluoride prices was significant.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the aluminum fluoride industry at the Business Society believe that in March, the prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid first fell and then rose, while the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials increased; The downstream electrolytic aluminum market fell first and then rose, while the price of cryolite fluctuated and fell, resulting in poor demand for aluminum fluoride. In the future, the rising cost of aluminum fluoride and weak demand remain. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will rise slightly in the future.

According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, as of March 28, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 367500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.48% compared to the price on March 1.

The lithium hydroxide market fell in March. In the first ten days, upstream lithium carbonate continued its downward trend, with insufficient support for cost in the face of lithium hydroxide. Production and operation at the supply side were relatively stable, and market supply was relatively sufficient. However, the demand side slowly recovered, and downstream follow-up was less than expected. The market atmosphere was weak, and corporate quotations declined. In the middle of the year, there was a lack of support on the cost side, and the demand side was weak. Manufacturers mainly delivered long-term orders and clinched deals. Current market transactions were limited, and lithium hydroxide prices fell again. In the second half of the year, the support for the cost side weakened again, and the market purchasing atmosphere was depressed. Under the mentality of downstream enterprises not buying up or down, the market actually traded poorly, and the decline in lithium hydroxide continued.

Upstream lithium carbonate: According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, the prices of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate significantly decreased in March 2023. As of March 27, the reference price for lithium carbonate – industrial grade was 240600.00, a decrease of 37.11% compared to March 1 (382600.00).

According to lithium hydroxide analysts from Business News, the current cost and demand side is weak, the market transaction atmosphere is flat, and there is a strong cautious wait-and-see mentality. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may continue to operate weakly, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index stood at 101.49 on March 26, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 142.64 (2021-11-01), and up 20.36% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the market price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride in China was basically stable at around 1877.5 yuan/ton during the week of March 20-26. Currently, the production of water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas is normal, with occasional short-term shutdown by manufacturers, and relatively abundant inventory in stock. Downstream procurement costs have not changed much. The cost of raw hydrochloric acid was stable, while fuel prices were slightly reduced. The market for polyaluminum chloride remained stable during the current week.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data of the Business Society, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid for the week from March 20 to 26 was basically maintained at around 198 yuan/ton. The upstream liquid chlorine market has consolidated at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride markets have declined slightly, and the downstream purchasing willingness is generally. The analysis indicates that hydrochloric acid is currently under insufficient support, with a steady decline being the main trend.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to data from Business News Agency, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas continued to decline during the week from March 20 to 26. As of March 26, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 4252 yuan/ton, down 3.58% from the average price of 4412 yuan/ton on March 20. Cost support weakened due to lower feed gas prices in the city. Under cost pressure, domestic liquid prices have continuously declined. Currently, the market has sufficient supply and weak terminal demand. The heating season in the north is about to end, with a low industrial operating rate and a significant oversupply in the market. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to be weak in the short term.

Future forecast: The market for raw materials is flat, fuel costs are reduced, and the spot inventory of polyaluminum chloride is still sufficient. There is no impact on downstream demand. It is expected that the recent market for polyaluminum chloride will continue to be stable.

1、 Price trend

According to data from Business News Agency, as of March 24, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8116 yuan/ton, which was 0.71% lower than the reference average price of 8175 yuan/ton on March 20.

According to data from Business News Agency, as of March 24, the reference average price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 8300 yuan/ton, which was stable compared to the reference average price of 8300 yuan/ton on March 20.

2、 Market analysis

The price of thermal phosphoric acid decreased slightly this week. At present, the demand for phosphoric acid is low and the market is weak. The trend of raw material yellow phosphorus is stagnant, with phosphoric acid manufacturers and distributors mainly on the sidelines. The price of wet process phosphoric acid was stable this week. The price of raw phosphate rock has risen at a high level, with good cost support. As of March 24th, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is around 7800-8200 yuan/ton, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan is around 8200 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei is around 7800-8200 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet-process phosphoric acid is around 7500-8900 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the market price of Yungui yellow phosphorus was stable this week. “The manufacturer issues multiple early stage orders, and most enterprises do not offer prices for the time being. Detailed discussions on actual orders will be conducted.”. At present, the supply and demand of yellow phosphorus market is still relatively stagnant, and overall, there are fewer transactions in the market. Up to now, the mainstream quotation is around 28200-32000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated on a single basis.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore. The domestic phosphorus ore market price rose this week. The boost in downstream demand has strengthened the support for phosphorus ore, with the supply of phosphorus ore in the field continuing to be tight. Both supply and demand have driven the overall strong operation of the dual driven phosphorus ore market.

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

According to phosphoric acid analysts from the Business Society, the current market trend of raw material yellow phosphorus is uncertain, and the demand for phosphoric acid in the market is sluggish. The industry is still dominated by wait-and-see. In the absence of positive factors, it is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will continue to be weak in the short term, mainly through consolidation and operation.