According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on November 29 was 109.26, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.40% from the peak of 142.64 (2021-11-01) in the cycle, and up 29.58%% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Spot goods: The monitoring data of the business community showed that the domestic solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market in the second half of November (16-29) remained stable after a slight increase, and the main report was 2021.25 yuan/ton in the second half of November. With the rapid cooling of the weather and the violent impact of recent public health events in many places, the demand for water treatment pharmaceutical products has decreased sharply. The business of water treatment enterprises in Gongyi, Henan is more difficult than in previous years, with limited transportation and weak demand; The market of raw material hydrochloric acid rose, but due to the sufficient inventory of manufacturers, the recent price change of raw materials had little impact on it. In the short term, the polyaluminum chloride market is mainly stable, supplemented by small fluctuations.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic hydrochloric acid market in the second half of November (16-29) rose from 163.33 yuan/ton to about 198 yuan/ton. From the perspective of manufacturers, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose slightly this month, and downstream demand increased. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, with average cost support; Downstream market rose slightly, and downstream manufacturers became more active in purchasing hydrochloric acid. According to the analysis, the recent market of hydrochloric acid may increase slightly.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business society, the price of domestic LNG fell by 6.93% in the second half of November (16-29): the market price of LNG was about 4414 yuan/ton on November 21, and the average market price was 4108 yuan/ton on November 25. Recently, due to the weakening of cost support, on-site supply exceeds demand, terminal demand release is limited, and the LNG market continues to decline. The new raw gas auction is about to start, and the industry is mainly cautious. It is expected that the LNG market will consolidate and operate in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in cost side and downstream demand.

Future forecast: The recent public health events in many places across the country have had a strong impact, sealed and controlled management, the economy is expected to decline, the demand is not as good as in previous years, and the water treatment market in 2022 is not as good as the same period last year. The light snow has passed, the weather is cold, the demand for downstream construction continues to be weak, the inventory is sufficient, and the cost of raw materials has risen, but the purchasing enthusiasm is not high in the near future. As the raw material market continues to rise, the manufacturer’s raw material inventory is exhausted, and the purchase cost rises, the future market will rise with it. It is expected that the polyaluminum chloride market will continue to fluctuate steadily, moderately and slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, toluene continued its downward trend this week, with a wider decline. The price was 7230 yuan/ton on November 25 and 6640 yuan/ton on Friday (December 2), down 8.16% from last week; 10.12% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Due to the weak trend of crude oil, combined with poor domestic demand for toluene, the market discussion was light, and the industry was bearish about the future market, and the price continued to decline last week.

In terms of external markets, the price of toluene in Asia fell this week. On Thursday (December 1), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was 777 US dollars/ton, down 67 US dollars/ton year on year, or 7.94%.

In terms of crude oil, concerns about the risk of global economic recession remain, and oil demand is under pressure. However, the OPEC+production reduction rumors and the news that the US crude oil inventory fell more than expected brought good news, and the oil price rebounded after falling in the week. As of December 2, Brent price this week rose by 1.94 dollars/barrel, or 2.32%, compared with last week; WTI rose by 3.7 dollars/barrel, or 4.85%.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell this week. On November 25, it was 17500 yuan/ton, and on December 2, it was 17233 yuan/ton, down 1.52% from last week and up 19.88% from the same period last year.

In terms of PX, domestic PX prices fell this week. On November 25, the price was 8600 yuan/ton, and on December 2, the price was 8300 yuan/ton, down 3.49% from last week and up 23.88% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, this week’s gasoline continued its downward trend. The price was 8082 yuan/ton on November 25 and 7836 yuan/ton on December 2, down 3.04% from last week and 0.64% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

In terms of crude oil, major oil producing countries decided to maintain the established production reduction target, and the oil price was somewhat suppressed. Under the background of the risk of global economic recession, energy demand is depressed; However, the supply side is still tight, and the short-term market will maintain a volatile pattern. We will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The market fundamentals are poor, and the short-term trend of crude oil is weak. It is expected that toluene will be dominated by weak operation. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.

1、 Price trend

The price of aniline rose slightly this week, according to the data from the bulk list of business cooperatives. On November 25, the price was 10350 yuan/ton, and on December 2, the price was 10438 yuan/ton, 0.85% higher than last week and 13.04% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

On the cost side, pure benzene: the fundamentals of pure benzene are not good, and the supply side continues to increase due to the accumulation of stocks in ports in East China; Downstream market is generally weak, and just need to buy. The trend of superimposed crude oil is weak, and the cost support is poor. The price of pure benzene fell due to multiple negative pressures. After the fall of pure benzene, the downstream buying recovered, and prices rebounded slightly in the coming weekend. On Friday (December 2), the price of pure benzene was 6559 yuan/ton, 3.32% lower than last week and 3.95% higher than the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The price of domestic nitric acid rose this week. The price was 2400 yuan/ton on November 25 and 2433 yuan/ton on December 2. The price rose 1.39% last week, 3.55% higher than the same period last year.

The operating rate of some plants in North China decreased slightly. In addition, under the influence of public health events, logistics and transportation were limited, and the supply of aniline in the market decreased. The price of aniline is at a low level, and the purchase enthusiasm of the downstream is fair, and the factory shipment is normal within the week. Fundamentals recovered and prices rebounded slightly.

3、 Future market expectation

General cost support; The downstream is in the low demand season, and the overall follow-up is limited. At present, the supply and demand of aniline market is temporarily stable, the short-term trend is relatively stable, and the rising trend is limited. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the dynamics of aniline device and the downstream picking mood.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 2, 2022, the market price reference of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 7833 yuan/ton, and on November 27 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 7900 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 67 yuan/ton, or 0.84%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (11.28-12.02), the domestic propylene glycol market as a whole showed a weak decline. The overall shipment of propylene glycol factory is slow, the wait-and-see mood is strong, and the supply and demand transmission is generally in a stalemate. Some propylene glycol factories store the pressure of shipment, and slightly reduce the price of propylene glycol by 100-200 yuan/ton. At present, the atmosphere of propylene glycol trading in the market is general, and new orders are mostly negotiated. As of December 2, the domestic propylene glycol market price is around 7700-8000 yuan/ton.

1、 Supply: Most of the new propylene glycol orders this week were just due to the need to be cautious, and were mainly negotiated. Therefore, some propylene glycol plants were under pressure in inventory. In addition, in the fourth quarter, some devices were put into production, and the overall on-site supply was also at a high level. The mentality of the operators was general, and the supply side gave propylene glycol a loose support.

2、 In terms of demand, at present, the UPR market of propylene glycol downstream is in a general situation, the consumption of raw materials is relatively slow, the mentality of the industry is general, and the stock is cautious. Therefore, the support given to propylene glycol in terms of demand is also insufficient.

Future trend analysis

At present, the propylene glycol market is weak as a whole, and the short-term pre added capacity has injected a strong wait-and-see mood into the market. The propylene glycol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the change of information on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business community, the average factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid on November 1 was 12500 yuan/ton, and on November 30, the average factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 12200 yuan/ton, down 2.10% this month.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the domestic caprolactam market trend is mainly downward. The price of raw material pure benzene fell, the cost support weakened, and the pure benzene market had a strong negative atmosphere. Most caprolactam manufacturers operate under reduced load, and the on-site supply is stable. Downstream demand is sluggish, and deals are light. The caprolactam market is weak under the negative factors. As of November 30, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 12800 yuan/ton.

This month, the raw material pure benzene market was hit by various negative effects, and the price fell due to shocks. Crude oil fell broadly and the cost was negative. The Asian American arbitrage window was closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China was at a high level, so the import volume of pure benzene in November was at a high level. Moreover, the overall supply of pure benzene market is sufficient. Downstream profitability is poor, styrene continues to decline, and the market is generally interested in buying pure benzene, which is a drag on the demand side. The price of Sinopec’s pure benzene fell by 950 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton this month.

The domestic market of downstream PA6 fell this month. The load of domestic polymerization plants has decreased by a narrow margin, and the supply is still sufficient. On the demand side, the demand is relatively weak, and the rigid demand support is weakened. The contradiction between supply and demand has a certain drag on the market. Generally speaking, the market fundamentals are weak, and the market may continue to be weak.

3、 Future market forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw materials has fallen recently and the cost support of caprolactam is insufficient. On site supply is stable and downstream demand is weak. Led by negative factors, caprolactam market is expected to continue its weak operation in the short term.

In November, the domestic asphalt market declined significantly, mainly due to the demand side. The weather gradually turned cold, limited commencement in some areas, and weak demand for asphalt. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the spot price of domestic asphalt at the beginning of the month was 4400 yuan/ton, and the domestic asphalt market price at the end of the month was 3655 yuan/ton. The price fell by 16.94% in the month, up 14.68% year on year.

At the beginning of the month, the spot market price of asphalt fell, and the price in South China fell significantly. The price reduction and batch discount of major refineries drove the market price down. At the same time, the demand is weak, transportation is limited in some regions, and the spot asphalt market has declined significantly.

In the first ten days of this month, the spot market price of asphalt continued to decline, mainly because of the end of demand, the refinery reduced the price for shipment, and the downstream factories mainly purchased on demand. The actual delivery atmosphere was not good.

In the last ten days of this month, the domestic asphalt market price continued to fall. In some regions, Sinopec lowered the price and had preferential policies for batch production. The price competition among brands intensified, and the market price fell significantly. The downstream terminal is dominated by just demand, coupled with rapid price decline, poor purchasing enthusiasm and weak overall trading and investment atmosphere.

At the end of the month, the mainstream quotation continued to decline, and the overall bearish atmosphere was heavy. The downstream is just about to end, traders are not enthusiastic about warehousing, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.

At present, the supply is sufficient and the demand is weak. Business agency asphalt analysts expect that the domestic asphalt market may continue to fall in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the copper price rose and fell in November. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 64376.67 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price rose to 64906.67 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.82%, down 9.39% year on year. The main reason is that the Federal Reserve is expected to slow down the pace of interest rate increase. The weakening of the dollar index and tight fundamentals resonate with strong copper prices. However, many weak economic data suggest that economic growth is slowing down, and copper prices have been under pressure since mid month.

According to the current chart of business futures, the spot price of copper was higher than the futures price in November, and the main contract was the expected price two months later. Near the end of the month, the main basis difference becomes larger, which is bad for buying hedging.

According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory rose after falling in November, just opposite to the copper price in November and lower than the overall inventory in October.

Macro: In November, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that most Fed officials supported slowing down the pace of interest rate increase. The quarterly adjusted annual CPI rate of the United States recorded 7.7% at the end of October, and fell back to below 8% again seven months later, the smallest increase since January 2022; The quarterly core CPI annual rate recorded 6.3%, lower than the expected 6.50%. The final annual rate of CPI in the euro area in October recorded 10.6%, a record high. Data released by the People’s Bank of China on October 10 showed that the increase in social financing scale in October 2022 was 907.9 billion yuan, 709.7 billion yuan less than the same period last year.

In terms of supply: the domestic refined copper output has maintained a steady growth. In October, the refined copper output increased by 10.90% year on year. From the partial overhaul of domestic smelters in November, the output growth has slowed down. Affected by exchange rate fluctuations and reduced overseas supply, the marginal decline of domestic copper related imports.

Demand: The overall demand is weak, and the growth rate of investment in power infrastructure has dropped significantly. From January to October, the investment in power grid has increased by 3% year-on-year, 6.1 percentage points lower than that from January to September. In terms of real estate, real estate investment from January to October decreased by 8.80% year on year, 0.8 percentage points lower than that from January to September. In terms of household appliances, from January to October, the cumulative year-on-year changes in the output of domestic major household appliances appeared differentiation, and the monthly data of air conditioners, refrigerators and freezers declined in an all-round way, but the washing machines grew on a month on month basis. In terms of automobiles, the growth rate in October declined significantly, and the year-on-year growth rate of passenger cars dropped significantly to 7.40%, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 2.70%.

To sum up, China will cut its reserve ratio by 0.25% to release liquidity and support copper prices with policies of multiple real estate initiatives. However, higher profits of smelters will increase production capacity. There is still expectation for incremental release before the end of the year. In addition, the severe and complex domestic epidemic situation is worrying, making supply and demand weak. The trend of copper prices will not be optimistic. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate and weaken in December.

In November, the market of polybutadiene rubber fell first and then stabilized. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the price of cis polybutadiene rubber was 11420 yuan/ton as of November 25, down 3.79% from 11870 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, affected by the downturn in demand and the sharp drop in raw materials, the factory price of two barrels of oil cis polybutadiene rubber fell continuously. The market price of cis polybutadiene rubber fell 4.55% within four days. After the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell sharply, the downstream inquiries increased, and the overall market was stable.

Supply side: the commencement of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in November decreased slightly compared with that in October, and the pressure on the supply side eased slightly.

On the cost side: butadiene prices fell sharply in November, while cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber costs fell. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 25, the price of butadiene was 6763 yuan/ton, down 11.05% from 7603 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In November, the natural rubber market fluctuated upward, and the support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber increased. As of November 25, the price was 12016 yuan/ton, up 4.22% from 11530 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: The commencement of tires in major downstream consumer industries in November was slightly lower than that in October. According to the business community, the commencement of all steel tires in Shandong in the middle of November was around 5.0%, and the commencement of semi steel tires was 5.9% (the commencement load in the middle of October was 5.2% and 6.5% respectively), which had weak support for styrene butadiene rubber.

Future market forecast: The analysts of the business community believe that although the supply side pressure of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber eased slightly in November, the plans of Hopu and Jinzhou were restarted in the later period. In addition, Shandong Yihua has produced high-quality products, the supply side pressure of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will increase again in the later period. The cost side is low and the consolidation support is weak. If the demand side does not improve in the future, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will continue to operate weakly in December.

In November, the domestic polyurethane fiber market declined slightly. As of November 24, the average market price was 36700 yuan/ton, down 3.42% from the beginning of the month and 53.89% year on year. At present, about 70% of the polyurethane fiber industry is under construction, and the market supply is sufficient.

Current mainstream price statistics of polyurethane fiber market (unit: yuan/ton)

20D./ 30D./ 40D

Zhejiang./37000-43000./36000-40000./33000-36000

Shandong./37000-43000./36000-40000./33500-36000

Fujian./37000-47000./36000-40000./33500-39000

Jiangsu./37000-43000./36000-40000./33000-36000

The supporting role of the cost side is weakened, the PTMEG market is weak, and the factory still intends to keep the price. The market price of PTMEG (1800 molecular weight) is 19000-19500 yuan/ton. The overall negotiation atmosphere of the pure MDI market is not good, and the traders’ quotations have been lowered. At present, the market reference is 17500-18000 yuan/ton telegraphic transfer barreled self lifting.

Downstream end customers are not enthusiastic about picking up goods and follow up conservatively. At present, terminal textile orders are difficult, and many small and medium-sized textile mills have been unable to obtain orders. At the same time, due to the epidemic situation, the logistics is limited, and it is difficult for finished products and raw materials to enter or exit. Many regions have frequent control, which has affected the factory operation to some extent. In addition, in the off-season, it is hard to hide the weakness of the loom operating rate. The loom operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has decreased to below 56%.

Analysts from the business community believe that the current raw material market is weak, and the support for the cost side of spandex is declining. At the same time, the demand of the downstream terminal market is insufficient to follow up, and the rigid demand procurement is the main demand. It is expected that the price of spandex will still move downward in the short term.

This week (11.14-18), the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 18, the decline this week was 2.37%. At present, the adipic acid market price range is 9700-9900 yuan/ton. The main reasons for the decline: the upstream raw material pure benzene continued to be weak, the supply pressure remained and the demand was sluggish.

Industrial chain

The above figure shows that the adipic acid industry chain is weak as a whole this week, with the whole line declining. Adipic acid and the downstream declined strongly, especially the downstream PA66 dropped nearly 3% in the week.

Cost side: pure benzene continued to decline

This week, pure benzene continued its downward trend. Since the middle of October, pure benzene has been falling continuously. This week’s decline was 0.59%, slightly narrower than last week’s 2%. On the one hand, the market is still sluggish. However, the signs of stopping the decline are gradually emerging, mainly due to the decline of port inventory in East China and the strong performance of downstream styrene export. The shipment of pure benzene increased. The supply and demand fundamentals improved slightly. However, the situation of oversupply has not been reversed. Near the weekend, the price of pure benzene in East China was 6850-6950 yuan/ton.

It can be seen from the price comparison chart of pure benzene adipic acid above that the two are positively correlated and have a highly consistent trend. However, the curve opening shrinks in the near future, mainly because the decline of adipic acid is too strong, and the decline of pure benzene is restrained.

Supply side: Start up and stabilize the accumulated warehouse of the manufacturer

In terms of market supply: in terms of devices, the overall operating rate of adipic acid was flat this week, about 60%. Previously, Xinjiang Tianli devices resumed operation and Taihua increased its load, releasing supply; However, last week, Shenma entered the maintenance period at the beginning of the month for a set of devices. This week, Haili maintained a set of devices to stabilize the supply increase. Other units have not changed much, and the supply has not changed much, but the manufacturer is still in the stage of destocking.

Demand side: weak downstream demand

The downstream performance of adipic acid is weak, the market is weak, and the early inventory is mainly digested. The downstream factories are cautious in taking the goods, and sporadic orders need to be supplemented to ensure the normal start-up demand. Take PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of the business community, PA66 rose or dropped by 2.97% this week. The downstream still resisted the high price supply, and the shipment speed slowed down. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was 24500-25000 yuan/ton.

Future outlook

The business community believes that, on the cost side, crude oil shocks and declines, pure benzene continues to be weak, and the cost side cannot benefit in the short term. There are too many maintenance devices at the supply side, and the market continues to go out of stock, so the supply pressure may be relieved in the future. The demand side is relatively weak, and the supply and demand game will continue. Considering comprehensively, adipic acid may maintain a weak adjustment pattern. In the later stage, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the manufacturer’s commencement and the upstream pure benzene price trend.