The butadiene rubber market rose slightly this week (9.16-9.23). According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China was 13040 yuan/ton as of September 23, up 0.46% from 12980 yuan/ton last Friday. The ex factory price of two barrels of oil of butadiene rubber was basically stable this week. Only the northeast sales company of CNPC raised the ex factory price of butadiene rubber by 100 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 23, the ex factory price of butadiene rubber of northeast sales company of CNPC reported 12700 yuan/ton The offer from merchants was firm. As of the 23rd, the offer from the butadiene rubber market was 12800~13400 yuan/ton, and the private butadiene mainstream was 12500~12700 yuan/ton.

 

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The short-term maintenance of 150000 t/a cis-1,4-polybutadiene unit of Sichuan Petrochemical Corporation, the shutdown of Taixiang Yubu for maintenance, the load reduction operation of Haopu and Zhenhua units, the pressure on the short-term supply side is relieved, and the supply side forms a support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber.

 

The butadiene market fell slightly this week (9.14-9.21), but the price has still risen since September, which continues to support the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 23, the price of butadiene was 8937 yuan/ton, down 1.74% from 9096 yuan/ton last Friday, and up 3.18% from 8662 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

 

The natural rubber market rose slightly this week, but the price was lower than that of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, which was insufficient to support cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of natural rubber was 12152 yuan/ton as of September 23, up 0.43% from 12100 yuan/ton last Friday.

 

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Since September, the commencement of downstream tire enterprises has not seen a significant increase, and the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has been supported to some extent, but the strength is not great. In addition, the domestic tire output from January to August declined year on year, and the overall demand was weaker than last year. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in August 2022, China’s output of rubber tire casings was 72.265 million, down 2.2% year on year. From January to August, the output of rubber tire casing decreased by 5.6% to 56422.1 million pieces compared with the same period last year.

 

Future market forecast: according to the analysts of the business community, the supply pressure of the butadiene rubber production chain has eased, the demand side just needs weak support, and the cost side is going up. It is expected that the price of butadiene rubber will be strong in the short term, and the changes in the supply and demand side still need to be concerned in the medium and long term.

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After the domestic butadiene market rose, the main reason was the increase in supply. This week, the major producers in Northeast China, Beibei Huajin and Fushun Petrochemical, started external bidding. At the same time, the external market performance was weak, the downstream cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber starting load decreased, and the demand was poor. It was difficult to continue the rise in the domestic butadiene market.

 

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According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from September 16 to 22, the domestic butadiene market price rose from 9032 yuan/ton to 9148 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.28%, 16.15% month on month and 19.56% year on year. In terms of price, the delivery price in Shandong Luzhong is 9300-9400 yuan/ton, and the self lifting price in East China is 8700-8900 yuan/ton.

 

For enterprises, the butadiene price of Sinopec sales companies is 9000 yuan/ton. The 160000 t/a butadiene extraction unit of Fushun Petrochemical was in stable operation, 210 tons of goods were sold abroad through competitive bidding, and the bidding base price was 9000 yuan/ton. The 64000 t/a butadiene extraction unit of Shenhua Ningxia Coal is operating normally. At present, a small amount of goods are exported, and the price is reduced by 700 yuan/ton to 8600 yuan/ton.

 

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In terms of external market: as of the closing on September 21, the price of Asian butadiene external market remained stable: FOB Korea closed at 945-955 US dollars/ton; CFR China closed at US $985-995 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 1495-1505 dollars/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1485-1495 euros/ton.

 

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia, FOB Korea, 945-955 US dollars/ton, 0 yuan/ton

Asia, CFR China, 985-995 USD/ton, 0 USD/ton

Europe and America, FOB Rotterdam, 1495-1505 USD/ton, 0 USD/ton

Europe., FD Northwest Europe., 1485-1495 euros/ton., 0 euros/ton

 

At present, the supply side benefits disappear, while the downstream synthetic rubber market trend is weak, and the demand side support is relatively limited. Butadiene analysts from the business community predict that the domestic butadiene market may decline in the short term.

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1. Related information

 

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1.1 In August, China’s refined copper (electrolytic copper) output was 917000 tons, up 3.9% year on year

 

From January to August, the output of refined copper (electrolytic copper) was 7.118 million tons, up 2.6% year on year; China’s copper production in August was 1.965 million tons, up 7.3% year on year. From January to August, the copper production was 14.184 million tons, up 4.3% year on year.

 

1.2 China Nonferrous Metals News: Can China’s crude copper refining capacity continue to expand?

 

By the end of 2021, China has a worldwide copper rough refining capacity of 8.82 million tons/year, and a global copper concentrate copper bearing capacity of 3.24 million tons/year in the same period.

 

In terms of production capacity, the self-sufficiency rate of crude copper refining resources in China is only 36.7%, while the copper bearing capacity of two major copper mine projects, Las Bambas Copper Mine and Toromocho Copper Mine, which are held by Chinese enterprises in Peru, totals 700000 tons/year. Both normal production is affected by different degrees due to community problems, and the actual resource security is lower.

 

From the perspective of resource supply, industrial operation, demand situation and corporate responsibility, China’s copper rough refining capacity should not continue to expand without the supply of its own copper resources.

 

2. Panel condition

 

The copper price continued to fluctuate in a narrow range yesterday, with 2714 net positions reduced and 8875 net positions reduced in the domestic market.

 

On the macro level, the results of the interest meeting are about to be released. Today, the market sentiment is weak. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 75bp with a high probability in September. Within the market expectation, the market sentiment will recover after the boots are landed.

 

Fundamentally, the average premium of Copper Changjiang Nonferrous Metals is 830 yuan/ton, which is still at a historical high. The LME (0-3) premium is 68 dollars/ton. At the same time, the inventory of the world’s three major exchanges continues to decline to 184100 tons. Both sides of the copper market may be playing a game around delivery, which is weaker than at the beginning of the week.

 

In the short term, the macro emotional disturbance will intensify next week, but the back structure of high premium+low inventory will continue to strengthen, and the long short game will intensify. It is expected that the volatility of copper prices will intensify in the week.

 

Strong supply and demand support.

 

On the supply side, the copper concentrate port stock is 971000 tons, and the TC is at 81.6 dollars/dry ton, so the supply at the mine side is acceptable. In August, the domestic refined copper output was 917000 tons, up 3.9% year on year, and the smelting capacity was running smoothly.

 

From the perspective of copper exports and output, exports in August fell by 38.6% year on year, but the overall growth from January to August was still 6% year on year; The domestic output in August was 1.965 million tons, up 7.3% year on year. The domestic market and export consumption are performing well, and the current peak consumption season of Jinjiuyinshi is still expected.

 

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3. Core logic

 

In the short term, with the support of fundamentals, the mood at the early stage of the interest meeting was weak. After the boots landed, the copper price may be strengthened by stages, and it is expected that the copper price will first decrease and then increase. Short term focus on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase plan in September.

 

4. Spot transaction

 

According to Shanghai Metal Network, transactions in the spot market were average yesterday, with the premium falling by 95 yuan/ton. Copper prices rebounded slightly. The spot premium was lower than the day before yesterday. In the session, the main stream of Pingshui copper rose by 630 yuan, and the good copper rose by about 650 yuan. The wet copper and differential copper were reported to be scarce.

 

5. Strategy Suggestions

 

It is suggested that speculators operate in a range, and short-term periodic bull opportunities can be concerned; It is better to purchase on demand at the industrial end. Pay attention to the risk points such as the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate increase signal, consumption and epidemic situation.

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The domestic methanol market rose and fell back, the methanol price rose significantly in the early stage, the recent rise slowed down, and the prices in some regions fell back. The international crude oil price fluctuated at a high level, while the coal price supported at a high level. At present, the main reasons that affect the methanol price are supply and demand. Most of the early maintenance devices have been restarted, and new devices such as Jiutai and Kunpeng have been put into operation. The supply has increased. However, the demand is general, most of them are rigid, and there is no sign of increase in the short term. Traders are mainly wait-and-see, and the international demand is poor. The rise of methanol market has slowed down, and the market is mainly volatile.

 

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According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market fell from 2726 yuan/ton to 2710 yuan/ton from September 13 to 20. During the cycle, the price fell by 0.60%, with the maximum amplitude of 2.77%. The price rose by 14.25% month on month and fell by 11.55% year on year.

 

As of the closing of September 20, the methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell back in shock. The MA2301 contract was opened at 2686 yuan/ton, with the highest price of 2722 yuan/ton and the lowest price of 2657 yuan/ton. The closing price of the MA2301 contract was 2660 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, the position of the MA2301 contract was 1332300 hands, up 71100 hands from the previous trading day.

 

Summary of methanol market prices by regions as of September 20:

 

Region, price

Qinghai region, no quotation

Shanxi Province, 2600-2630 yuan/ton

Liaoning Province, about 2900-2920 yuan/ton

Fujian, 2700-2730 yuan/ton

Two Lakes region, about 2785-2830 yuan/ton

Anhui Province, about 2820-2870 yuan/ton

Henan Province, 2800 yuan/ton

 

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The price of products in the methanol industry chain has risen and fallen, the price of natural gas in the upstream product of methanol has been stable, the average price of coal has risen in a narrow range, and the cost of methanol is well supported; Among the downstream products, the price of methane chloride in Shandong increased the most; Among related products, Shandong’s ethylene glycol price rose the most.

 

In terms of external market, as of September 19, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 365.00-366.00 dollars/ton. US Gulf Methanol Market closed at 104.75-105.75 cents/gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market was closed.

 

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 365.00-366.00 USD/ton, 0 USD/ton

Europe, America, Gulf of America, 104.75-105.75 cents/gallon, 0 cents/gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam,/Euro/ton,/Euro/ton

In the early stage, the shortage of supply has absorbed some of the benefits. In terms of downstream demand, each product is slightly different: BMW Hebi, the main producer of dimethyl ether, plans to restart and its output may increase; In terms of acetic acid, Hualu plans to reduce the output of acetic acid around the 20th; In terms of formaldehyde, Shandong Lianyi’s inventory decreased as expected, and the output may decrease; The start-up of other downstream MTBE and MTO units is relatively stable. The short-term supply has increased, while the demand side has no obvious positive effect. Methanol analysts of the business community predict that the domestic methanol market may weaken.

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On September 19, the domestic futures market closed, with most of the commodity futures falling, led by energy chemicals, among which PTA fell by more than 3%. PTA spot price fell with each other. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of the domestic PTA spot market was 6579 yuan/ton on September 19, down 2.02% from the previous trading day and up 33.10% year on year.

 

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In terms of devices, with the restart of Sichuan Energy Chemical’s 1 million ton device after a short shutdown, the load of two sets of 3.3 million ton devices of Eason New Materials increased by 80%, and the PTA load increased to more than 70%. However, in general, PTA spot stocks are still relatively small and continue to be de stocked. According to statistics, as of September 15, the domestic PTA social inventory was 2025900 tons.

 

In the crude oil market, the good news on the supply side and the bad news on the demand side are playing a game. In particular, the geopolitical tension is becoming more serious, and the oil price is subject to more interference factors, which will further aggravate the shock of the oil market. Under the tight supply and demand of PX itself, PTA cost side support is relatively strong.

 

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Due to the gradual easing of the high-temperature weather in the terminal weaving in the near future, the starting load continues to rise, and the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is more than 71%. However, even in the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” inventory level, it is difficult to achieve the level of previous years. Therefore, the demand side of polyester remained flat, which led to the increased pressure on the polyester factory to go out of the warehouse and the difficulty in effectively improving the commencement.

 

Analysts from the business community believe that although some devices have been restarted or the load has been increased recently, the short-term supply of PTA is difficult to increase significantly, which will still support the price of PTA. However, the sustainability of the downstream demand side warming remains to be further observed.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 16, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 18166.67 yuan/ton, 0.93% higher than the price of 18000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 21.01% lower than the same period last year

 

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 16, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25666.67 yuan/ton, 0.65% higher than the price of 25500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 10.98% lower than the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Refrigerant R22 fundamentals ran slightly stronger overall this week, and the prices quoted by enterprises rose slightly. The price of raw material trichloromethane continued to rise in the month, hydrofluoric acid was weak and stable as a whole, and the cost of raw materials rose slightly. Supported by the cost, the price of R22 rose slightly.

 

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Since September, the price of hydrofluoric acid has remained weak and stable as a whole, the price of trichloroethylene has remained strong, and the cost of raw materials has continued to rise. Supported by the cost and demand, the price of domestic refrigerant R134a has continued to rise.

 

In terms of raw materials, the overall domestic hydrofluoric acid price remained relatively low in September, which will suppress the domestic R134a price in the future.

 

3、 Future market forecast

 

Refrigerant analysts from the business community believe that the cost of raw materials continues to rise, the manufacturer’s inventory is relatively low, and it is expected that domestic R22 and R134a prices will continue to run strongly in the short term, supported by costs and demand.

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After returning from the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the domestic DME market price returned to the rising trend, and the Henan market price increased significantly. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4115.00 yuan/ton on September 12 and 4160 yuan/ton on September 15, with a rise of 1.09% during the period and a drop of 3.95% compared with the same period last year.

 

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As of September 15, the market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, mainstream quotation

Jiangxi, 4300 yuan/ton

Hebei, 4560 yuan/ton

Henan Province, 4050-4160 yuan/ton

After the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the domestic dimethyl ether market generally rose. There are obvious positive factors in the market. In terms of cost, the rise of the raw material methanol market has provided some support. Although the civil market of liquefied gas related products has insufficient momentum to continue to rise, the overall price is firm. The supply in Shandong and Hebei is low, which is good for the market mentality. The downstream will focus on replenishment after the festival. The enthusiasm for entering the market is good. The manufacturer’s shipment is mild, the mentality is strong, and the price has been adjusted continuously.

 

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On September 15, the methanol market in Northeast China rose partially, and the shipments of some mainstream enterprises in Heilongjiang Province were about 2700 yuan/ton; The main traders delivered Liaoning Panjin at about 2900-2920 yuan/ton. The prices of enterprises in southern Shandong are concentrated around 2850 yuan/ton, while the local prices in Linyi are around 2870-2910 yuan/ton.

 

At present, the raw material methanol market is mainly adjusted, which brings some support in terms of cost. The supply in Shandong and Hebei markets is low, which is good for the market mentality. In addition, there is a demand for replenishment in the downstream after the festival. The enthusiasm for entering the market is good. The mentality of the manufacturers is relatively strong, and the price is higher. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market is still dominated by gains.

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On the second day after the festival, the domestic MIBK market rose slightly. The overall negotiation range was 9550-9700 yuan/ton, which was 50-100 yuan/ton higher than the previous long-term stalemate.

 

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First of all, the cost support is strong. With the increase of acetone at the raw material end, the pressure from the cost side increases. The acetone negotiation in East China is 5150 yuan/ton, and that in South China is 5300 yuan/ton. In the afternoon, it was mainly affected by the typhoon, and the short futures of interval transportation were restricted. The price holding sentiment of the holders increased, and the offer rose, which was strongly supported by the cost.

 

At present, the operating rate of MIBK industry is around 80%, and the supply side is generally stable. It is estimated that there may be a shutdown maintenance plan in the later period, and the details are being followed up.

 

The business agency expects that the domestic MIBK market will be stable or increase, but the increase is limited by the demand side release. It is expected that the market in East China will negotiate 9600-9700 yuan/ton in the near future.

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1、 Price trend

 

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As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell slightly this week, with the price dropping 1.08% from 4633.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 4583.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week. The factory price of potassium chloride in China is temporarily stable this week. This week, the factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is 4480 yuan/ton. On September 12, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 120.61, unchanged from yesterday, 16.67% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 144.74 (2022-06-21), and 24.71% higher than the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The quotation of domestic mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers fell slightly this week: the ex factory price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake at the weekend was about 4480 yuan/ton. Xiangyang youdeshi’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 4400 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 4850 yuan/ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 4500 yuan/ton this weekend, a drop of 150 yuan/ton compared with last weekend. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is about 4000-4200 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is about 4100-4300 yuan/ton. 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade is about 4000 yuan/ton.

 

From the perspective of the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate was adjusted at a low level this week, with the price of 9475.00 yuan/ton, up 16.74% year on year. This week, the factory price of potassium nitrate was adjusted at a low level, with a price of 6800.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 24.39% over the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride has consolidated at a low level, and the demand of downstream customers for potassium chloride has weakened.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

In the middle of September, the overall trend of potassium chloride market was dominated by narrow fluctuation and decline. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has been consolidated at a high level, the downstream market of potassium chloride has declined slightly, the downstream demand has weakened, and the purchase is just needed. International potash fertilizer prices fell slightly. Potassium chloride analysts from the business community believe that the domestic potassium chloride import price may fall slightly in the short term.

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According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of September 6, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of silicone DMC market quotation in the mainstream regions of China is referenced at 19320 yuan / ton, which is 320 yuan / ton lower than the price on September 1, 2022 (reference price of 19640 yuan / ton), a decrease of 1.63%.

 

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It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that in the first ten days of August, with the support of the high raw material market, the focus of the silicone DMC market was also moving upward. However, with the fall of the raw material market in the second ten days, the cost support became weaker, and the silicone DMC market was also weak. In September, the appearance of traditional Jinjiu in the silicone DMC market was not obvious. In the first two days of the month, the silicone DMC market was still dominated by the continuation of the decline at the end of August. Some suppliers with higher prices in the previous period continued to adjust the silicone DMC price downward, and the gap between the high and low prices in the silicone DMC market narrowed. Then the market was weak and consolidated, and there was no obvious rise and fall. It can be said that the adjustment of the rise and fall in the market was more cautious. Until September 5, Shandong large factories slightly increased the ex factory price of silicone DMC, with a cumulative increase of around 200 yuan / ton in the past two days. Other monomer factories and suppliers mostly kept stable quotations. At present, as of September 6, the domestic silicone DMC market price is around 18900-19800 yuan / ton.

 

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In terms of upstream metal silicon, since September (9.1-9.5), the domestic metal silicon (Product Name: 441 #) market has shown an overall upward trend. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, on September 5, the reference price of metallic silicon was 19760 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.02% compared with September 1 (19560.00 yuan / ton).

 

Silicone DMC market forecast

 

In recent days, the market of raw metal silicon has recovered, which has led to a slight rise in the market of silicone DMC. The overall trend of the silicone DMC market is relatively conservative, and the rhythm of downstream stock preparation before the festival is slowly opened. The silicone DMC data analyst of business club believes that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market will mainly operate in a stable and small dynamic range, and the specific trend needs to pay attention to the news changes on the supply and demand side.

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