1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of neopentyl glycol in the mainstream domestic market fell from 10000.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 9966.67 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.33%. On September 4, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 48.03, which was the same as yesterday, down 53.64% from the highest point 103.61 in the cycle (September 22, 2021), and up 3.09% from the lowest point 46.59 on August 20, 2022. (Note: period refers to September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of the mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol fell: the weekend sales price of Jinan aochen Wanhua neopentyl glycol was 9900 yuan / ton, which decreased by 1000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The weekend sales price of Zibo deshengfeng neopentyl glycol is 10200 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend. The weekend sales price of kemico Shandong neopentyl glycol is 9800 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market rose from 7166.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7733.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 7.91%. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost was well supported. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of September, the market trend of neopentyl glycol mainly rose slightly. The market price of isobutyraldehyde in the upstream rose slightly, and the cost support was good. The market price of coatings in the downstream was general, and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement was weakened. Analysts of neopentyl glycol of business club believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the market price of neopentyl glycol in the short term may rise slightly.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of September 2, 2022, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol was 8533 yuan / ton, which was 200 yuan / ton lower than that on August 29 (8733 yuan / ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business association that this week (8.29-9.2), the domestic n-propanol market was in a downward trend. At the beginning of the week, there was little change in the market of zhengpropanol, and the news was relatively calm. Since the middle of the week, the market of n-propanol in Shandong has been in a downward trend. Large factories in Shandong have reduced the ex factory price of n-propanol, which has driven the market of n-propanol downward as a whole, with a reduction range of around 100-300 yuan / ton. As of September 2 this weekend, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 8000-8200 yuan / ton, and the high-end price is around 8500 yuan / ton. At present, the trading atmosphere of zhengpropanol in the market is OK, and the downstream continues to be dominated by just needed purchases. Dealers around the world still have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has its own differences. Actual single negotiation is the main way, and we will wait and see the price change and shipment of raw materials in the future market.

Prediction of the future market trend of n-propanol

N-propanol is mainly used as a solvent, and also used in pharmaceuticals, paints and cosmetics. It has low toxicity. At present, the domestic downstream demand side of n-propanol is relatively stable, and the supply and demand side is quite normal. The business community’s n-propanol statistician believes that in the short term, how stable and dynamic China’s domestic n-propanol market will be? More attention should be paid to the news changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the data monitoring of business association, the dichloromethane market fluctuated and rose slightly in August. As of August 31, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2900 yuan / ton, up 2.20% from 2837 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point in the month was 3177 yuan / ton. Since the beginning of the year, dichloromethane has been declining all the way. After falling to the lowest point of the year in July, manufacturers supported by costs have a strong willingness to support prices, and the price of dichloromethane rose in the first and middle of August; However, restricted by the supply and demand side, the increase was limited, and the price of dichloromethane fell slightly in the middle and late August.

In August, the start-up of domestic methane chloride plants did not change much, and the overall supply was loose.

In August, the market of raw material methanol fell first and then rose. The spot price fluctuated and consolidated in the range of 150 yuan / ton, which has a certain support for dichloromethane. According to the business agency, as of August 31, the price of methanol was 2540 yuan / ton, down 0.59% from 2555 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The low point in the month was 2412 yuan / ton and the high point was 2568 yuan / ton. In August, the high-temperature weather was the peak of electricity consumption, and the coal supply was relatively tight. In addition, the methanol supply for the maintenance of the methanol unit in the early stage was too tight. The cost of methanol was supported by the supply side, and the price was adjusted in a narrow range at a high level. It can be seen from the “methanol dichloromethane price trend comparison” chart that the current methanol cost continued to support dichloromethane.

In August, the high-temperature weather had a certain after-sales demand support for refrigerant R32. The start-up of pharmaceutical, detergent and other industries was stable but weak, and the demand for dichloromethane had a certain support.

Future forecast: the analysts of methane chloride data of business club believe that the supply side is under pressure at present, and there is no obvious bright spot in demand. It is expected that dichloromethane will continue to shake and consolidate in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate was 4650 yuan / ton on August 1, and the average market price of powdered monoammonium phosphate was 3400 yuan / ton on August 31. The market price of monoammonium phosphate fell by 26.88% this month.

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 4425 yuan / ton on August 1, and the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 4350 yuan / ton on August 31. The market price of diammonium phosphate fell by 1.69% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price trend of monoammonium phosphate declined this month. The price of raw sulfur has stopped falling and rebounded, but the market is still unstable, and the market is still in a wait-and-see mood. The high level of raw phosphate rock fell slightly. Most of the ammonium phosphate manufacturers suspended their quotations, the traders’ quotations were chaotic, and the ammonium phosphate market was quiet. In late August, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises picked up, and the raw material monoammonium was still mainly purchased on demand. As of August 31, the ex factory price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei is 2800-3000 yuan / ton, and the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 3000-3500 yuan / ton. The actual transaction can be negotiated.

The market price of diammonium phosphate fell this month. The domestic demand for diammonium is relatively small in the off-season, and the export market is not good. It is waiting for the release of market demand in autumn. A small amount of downstream procurement. Most of the manufacturers of ammonium phosphate still suspended their quotations, and the dealers’ quotations were chaotic, and most of them were sold at reduced prices. As of August 31, the market price of 64% of diammonium in Guizhou was 4150-4350 yuan / ton, and the market price of 64% of diammonium in Yunnan was 4200-4600 yuan / ton. The actual transaction was negotiated.

The raw material is phosphorus ore. In the middle and early ten days of August, the domestic medium and high-grade phosphate ore market continued to be consolidated and operated at a high level. The on-site supply was still tight, and the downstream demand was mainly based on demand. Near the end of the month, after the downstream phosphate fertilizer market turned cold, the terminal demand support of the phosphate ore market was loosened, and the market price in the field was weaker than that in the previous period. On August 22, some mining enterprises with higher prices in the previous period slightly reduced the price of 30% phosphate rock by 50-80 yuan / ton, and the difference between high and low prices in the field was narrowed. As of August 31, the market price of 30% phosphate ore in China was near 1068 yuan / ton, The specific price is also related to factors such as powder to block ratio. The specific price is discussed on a single basis. The market price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 850-980 yuan / ton. The specific price is discussed on a single basis. At present, the market of phosphate rock quarry is light, and the downstream purchase is moderate, and the transaction is generally general.

Raw material sulfur. Sulfur prices in East China rose slightly this month. The sulfur market is waiting to be sorted out and put into operation. The port cargo carriers are bullish and reluctant to sell. Due to the weak downstream market, the demand for sulfur in the domestic market is weak. The operators in the field have different attitudes. Most of the sulfur is mainly stable. Some manufacturers increase their prices according to their own shipping conditions. The overall downstream demand is general. The market purchase just needs to be followed up. The mood of waiting and waiting in the field is strong. As of the 30th, the price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong Province was between 1190-1290 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur was between 990-1150 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium phosphate analyst of the business community believes that the current market trend of ammonium phosphate raw materials is weak and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream demand side has not been improved yet, waiting for the release of fertilizer in autumn. The quotation of traders is disorderly, and a single negotiation is the main one. The market performance of ammonium phosphate is still flat, and it is expected that the price trend of ammonium phosphate will remain weak in the short term.

It can be seen from the above figure that the mainstream market price of domestic urea in this month generally fell first and then rose: the price of urea first fell from 2438.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2312.00 yuan / ton on August 10, down 5.17%, and then rose to 2400.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 3.81%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease was 2.04%.

On August 30, the urea commodity index was 111.63, which was the same as yesterday, down 26.72% from the highest point 152.33 in the cycle (May 15, 2022), and up 100.77% from the lowest point 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

In August, the urea price fluctuated and fell, with the highest drop of 1.01% in a single week. According to the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream market price of urea in China has risen and fallen this month.

Insufficient upstream support and general downstream demand

From the data of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream products of urea in this month as a whole have seen a slight drop: the price of liquefied natural gas has dropped slightly, from 6520.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 5752.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 11.78%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.67% compared with the same period of last year. The price of liquid ammonia was adjusted at a low level. The price fluctuated in a narrow range of 3780 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 1.73% over the same period of last year. In this month, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose sharply, from 7233.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8466.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 17.05%.

From the demand side, the agricultural demand is weakened and the industrial demand is insufficient. The agricultural demand in some areas has been eliminated. The operating load of compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants is low, the industrial demand is insufficient, the price of melamine rises sharply, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is enhanced. In terms of supply, some areas in the South have limited power and stopped production, and the daily output of urea has dropped to about 140000 tons.

Urea may rebound at the bottom in the future

The urea market may rebound at the bottom in the middle and early September. Although the prices of anthracite and natural gas in the upstream have dropped slightly, the cost support is insufficient. However, in September, the production of compound fertilizer manufacturers is expected to gradually increase, the industrial demand increases, and the agricultural demand follows up as needed. Urea may rebound at the bottom in the future.

Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the copper price in August surged. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 61571.67 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the copper price rose to 63808.33 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 3.63% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.75%.

According to the current chart of the business community, in August, the spot price of copper was basically higher than the futures price. The main contract was the expected price in two months. The main basis became larger, which was bad for buying hedging.

According to the LME inventory, the LME copper inventory in August was lower than that in July, and fell to the same level in June at the end of the month.

Macroscopically, the data of industrial added value, retail sales of consumer goods and fixed asset investment above designated scale in July were all lower than expected, while the real estate data weakened again to a new low. In August, the global energy crisis became more severe, and the economic prospects of Europe were even less ideal. However, the economic data of the United States is not ideal, and the global economy is in recession.

On the supply side, global copper smelting activities decreased in July, and the global copper dispersion index dropped to 46.5 from 46.7 in the previous month. There is still some interference in the global refined copper production. On the one hand, the energy supply problem in Europe is still fermenting, and the copper smelting operation rate may be affected and reduced by the natural gas consumption reduction plan implemented by EU countries; On the other hand, although the domestic smelting and maintenance activities are marginally reduced, some copper production areas have reduced the operating rate due to power limitation, and the growth of refined copper output may continue to be lower than expected. In addition, the reduction of crude copper produced from scrap copper leads to the tight supply of domestic cold materials, which also restricts the growth of refined copper output.

Demand: the recovery of terminal demand is not obvious, and the primary processing market has recovered. On the real estate side, due to the “loan suspension” and the financing problems of private real estate enterprises, the market confidence is insufficient, the supply and demand are weak, and the front and back end data are poor. In the household appliance sector, both domestic and external demand are weak, or it is difficult to have a good performance. At present, the proportion of copper used for new energy vehicles in the automobile sector is not high, and the overall demand is limited.

From the above, in August, copper showed a weak trend of both supply and demand. Rumors of domestic storage stimulated the market, and copper prices kept a moderate rebound trend. There is great uncertainty in the future China-U.S. relations. On September 21, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. The market sentiment is conservative and the rebound is still weak. In September, the domestic traditional peak season has a certain support for the copper price, and it is expected that the copper price may continue to fluctuate strongly in general.

Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic sodium pyrosulfite price has been steadily advancing this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 2683.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2683.33 yuan / ton at the weekend.

This week, the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite has been steadily advancing. The market price range of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite is 2600-2800 yuan / ton, and most of the prices are concentrated around 2600-2750 yuan / ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, mainly to complete the orders of old customers. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some enterprises that have not reported are not included in the scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact the manufacturers for details.).

This week, the price of domestic soda ash is weak and stable, falling by 0.38% in the week. The price of sulfur rises slightly, rising by 0.57% in the week. In general, the cost of raw materials in the upstream of sodium pyrosulfite is weak and stable, and the market price of sodium pyrosulfite is expected to be weak and stable in the future.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the overall cost of upstream raw materials is weak and stable, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will follow the overall cost and gradually weaken and stabilize.

1、 Price trend

Take the sulfuric acid rutile titanium dioxide with a large amount of goods sold in the domestic market as an example. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of titanium dioxide decreased this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide on August 1 was 18866.67 yuan / ton, and the average price on August 25 was 17500 yuan / ton. The price reduction rate within the month was 7.24%.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the domestic titanium dioxide market price continued to decline. The domestic titanium dioxide market is light, the market is weak, the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, and the order is more cautious. The inventory pressure of titanium dioxide manufacturers is large, and the factory price is reduced. After the two enterprises sent a letter to announce the rise in late this month, the price of some low-priced titanium dioxide in the market stopped falling and stabilized. Up to now, the quotation of domestic rutile titanium dioxide is between 15500-19500 yuan / ton; The quotation of anatase titanium dioxide is between 14000-16000 yuan / ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panzhihua Xichang region decreased this month. At present, the market operation is insufficient and the spot is tight. However, the downstream purchasers are under great pressure. They mainly wait and see, and the actual transaction situation is general. Small and medium-sized miners are under great pressure. Most enterprises are mainly supporting prices, and the overall market is weak. Up to now, the quotation excluding tax for 38-42 grade titanium ore is about 1420-1450 yuan / ton, the quotation excluding tax for 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2100-2120 yuan / ton, and the quotation for 47 grade 20 titanium ore is about 2300-2400 yuan / ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate will maintain stable operation, and the actual transaction price is a single negotiation.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers fell sharply this month According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the domestic sulfur price was 612 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month, and 358 yuan / ton on August 25, with a decrease of 41.5%. The upstream sulfur market has been adjusted at a low level recently, and the cost support is general. The market prices of hydrofluoric acid, titanium dioxide and ammonium sulfate in the downstream declined slightly, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers for sulfuric acid was general.

3、 Future forecast

Business society titanium dioxide analysts believe that the current domestic titanium dioxide market is weak. The raw material titanium concentrate decreased slightly, the sulfuric acid price fell more, the cost pressure was weak, and the overall market demand was weak. It is expected that the price of titanium dioxide will be weak and stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be mainly negotiated.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 24, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 6600 yuan / T, which was 766 yuan / t lower than that on August 1 (the average reference price of n-butanol was 7366 yuan / T), a decrease of 10.14%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that since August, the overall market of n-butanol in Shandong Province has shown a fluctuating downward trend. In the first ten days of August, affected by insufficient downstream demand, the n-butanol market continued to decline. As of August 15, the low-end price of the n-butanol market had dropped to about 6500 yuan / ton, with a drop of more than 10% in the first ten days. In late August, as the market price of n-butanol fell to the low point, the transaction in the market improved. After some factories took effect in destocking, the price increased slightly. On August 19, the market price of n-butanol was around 6700-6900 yuan / ton. However, the downstream operating rate is general, and the demand is still insufficient. Near the end of the month, the market price of n-butanol drops again. Some n-butanol factories reduce the price of n-butanol by about 100-200 yuan / ton. As of August 24, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China is around 6400-6800 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 10.14% in the month. At present, the trading volume of n-butanol in the market is general, and the trading volume is weak.

In terms of upstream propylene, since August, the overall propylene market in Shandong has been in a downward trend. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on August 23, the reference price of propylene was 6860.60 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.64% compared with that on August 1 (7348.60 yuan / ton).

Post market analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of the n-butanol market is weak, the confidence of the industry is general, the downstream operation is low, and the supply and demand transmission is relatively slow. The n-butanol datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong will mainly be operated in the interval, and more attention needs to be paid to the changes of raw materials and supply and demand.

Today (August 23), most of the domestic futures chemical industry sectors rose, of which PTA rose 3.98% to 5588 yuan. PTA in the spot market rose, with the average market price of 6200 yuan / ton, up 2.24% over the previous trading day and 24.88% year-on-year.

In addition, the current PTA start-up load is not high, and it is still in the de inventory state. At the same time, the downstream textile industry is about to enter the traditional peak season, and the temperature will start to drop this week. It is expected that the power restriction policy will be relaxed, so the terminal demand is expected to improve month on month. With the comprehensive promotion, the PTA price today ushered in an obvious rebound.

Business analysts believe that from the perspective of cost and supply and demand, PTA prices in the future are still under pressure.

In terms of PTA unit, the 1 million ton unit of chuanneng chemical was shut down on the evening of August 16, and the restart time is to be determined. Yisheng new materials has a total of 6.6 million tons of operating load of 90%, Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million tons, Yadong Petrochemical 700000 tons of load of 80%, Yisheng Dalian 2.25 million tons of unit load of 60%, and the recovery time is to be determined. At present, the industrial load has increased slightly to more than 71%. With the start-up of PTA pre maintenance units, the supply will rise slowly.

Affected by the new progress of the Iranian nuclear agreement and the fear of future economic recession, the international crude oil futures price fluctuated and weakened. As of August 22, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $90.36/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $96.48/barrel. It is expected that the drop in demand will still drive the oil price downward.

At present, the textile and clothing consumption is still in the off-season, and most of the large polyester factories maintain production reduction. The overall operating rate is around 77%, and it is difficult to significantly increase in the short term. Due to the impact of high temperature limit, the terminal weaving load is also kept at a low level, and the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is reduced to below 48%. Orders are still insufficient, and the stock of raw materials continues to be low. Therefore, in a comprehensive view, the situation of weak supply and demand still exists, and the impact of crude oil fluctuations still needs to be paid attention in the later stage.