According to the data of the business community, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil as of October 23 was 6630.00 yuan/ton (tax included), which was stable compared with the price of 6610.00 yuan/ton on October 17.

On October 23, the fuel oil commodity index was 134.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 1.05% from the peak of 135.70 (2022-06-21) in the cycle, and up 191.41% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The international crude oil price fluctuated downward, and the cost support of the ship fuel market was limited. According to the business community, as of October 23, the self raised low sulfur price of 180cst fuel oil in the Zhoushan area was 6600 yuan/ton, and the self raised low sulfur price of 120cst fuel oil was 6700 yuan/ton; The price of 180cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil in CNGC Shanghai is 6650 yuan/ton, and the price of 120cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil is 6750 yuan/ton.

International crude oil prices fell in shock. Since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to cut their production target by 2 million barrels per day during the National Day holiday, the expectation of tight crude oil supply has led to a rise in oil prices. However, the release of reserves in the United States followed. In addition, against the background of high global inflation, the market strengthened the expectation of the central bank to significantly increase interest rates. The expectation of economic recession risk weakened the demand for fuel. In the short term, it offset the positive impact of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies (OPEC+) to significantly reduce production, and the price of crude oil fell accordingly.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory increased, providing limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG): As of the week ended October 19, Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory fell 1.393 million barrels to 15.184 million barrels, a three-month low. Singapore’s medium distillate oil inventory decreased by 1.176 million barrels to 6.963 million barrels, the lowest level in four months. Singapore’s fuel oil inventory rose 839000 barrels to a two-week high of 21.04 million barrels.

Future forecast: the international crude oil market has been in shock recently, and the domestic raw material price is strong at present; Affected by the domestic epidemic situation, port refueling is currently limited, and the transaction is mainly just in demand. In the near future, the ship fuel market is mainly stable. At present, the 180CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6700 yuan/ton, and the 120CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6800 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be dominated in the near future.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business community, the domestic potassium sulfate market is stable and weak in the near future, and the spot prices of various brands are temporarily stable. As of October 22, the average price of 50 domestic potassium sulfate granules was 4100 yuan/ton, up or down by – 4.65% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Recently, the momentum of domestic potash fertilizer market continues to be low, the trading atmosphere is weak, the operating rate of potassium sulfate Mannheim type enterprises remains low, and the load of resource-based enterprises is yet to be restored. Before the festival, some enterprises such as SDIC Luoke produced compound fertilizer in autumn to increase the load, but the effect was limited, and the industry load was still around 24%. The supply of potassium sulfate enterprises is low, but there is generally a certain amount of inventory. There are abundant goods on the market, and the pressure on the supply side is obvious. The spot price is dragged down. The upstream potassium chloride is weak. Recently, the volume of goods passing through border trade and ports has decreased, but the overall supply of goods is abundant and the transaction is insufficient. Downstream potassium carbonate, potassium nitrate and other enterprises purchase slowly, and potassium chloride does not support processing potassium sulfate enterprises. Downstream consumption is weak, trading and investment in the northern market are rarely heard, the supply of goods is slow to ship, the mentality of businessmen is weak, and the market offer is low.

3、 Future market forecast

The potassium sulfate analysts of the business community believed that the domestic potassium sulfate market was stable in the middle of October, while the potassium chloride market was weak. The domestic potassium sulfate cost support is weak, the supply side is sufficient, and the demand side follow-up is poor. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price will operate at a low level due to the continuous poor demand in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 17, the price of lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product, was 160000 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium iron phosphate remained stable. Compared with the same period last week, the price of lithium iron phosphate remained unchanged. At present, the downstream just needs to purchase. The purchasing atmosphere is general, the supply is normal, and the operating rate is normal. Lithium iron phosphate is mainly ordered and delivered by contract customers. New orders are not accepted, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is fair, At present, the mainstream price range is 155000-160000 yuan/ton.

The price of lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product, is 160000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate is mainly stable, and the price range is maintained at 155000-160000 yuan/ton. At present, the downstream just needs to purchase. The purchasing atmosphere is general, and the overall market remains stable. The manufacturer’s supply of goods is limited to new customers. The contract customers are mainly responsible for ordering and shipping. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is fair.

Upstream lithium carbonate: As of October 13, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 521000 yuan/ton, up 3.95% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (October 9, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 501200 yuan/ton). Stable operation is the main factor. The industrial level is 505000 yuan/ton. The battery level is 530000 yuan/ton. With the arrival of the fourth quarter, there is a strong bullish atmosphere.

Chemical commodity index: On October 16, the chemical index was 1005 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.21% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 68.06% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the analysts of LiFePO4 from the business community, the market of LiFePO4 will remain stable and the mainstream price will remain at 155000-160000 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price trend of TDI in East China continued to rise. On October 18, the average market price in East China was 27166.67 yuan/ton, 26.95% higher than the price of 21400.00 yuan/ton on October 10, and 35.33% higher than the beginning of the month.

The TDI market is running on the strong side. The demand for TDI in the overseas market is strong. The factory maintains export orders as the main part. In terms of domestic supply, the TDI factory continues to supply in limited quantities. The spot market is tight, and the bullish atmosphere is strong. The holders of goods are reluctant to sell, and the quotations follow the market sharply. As of the 18th, the quotation range of domestic goods in the distribution market in East China is about 26000-27000 yuan/ton, and the quotation range of Shanghai goods is 27000-27500 yuan/ton. The actual order negotiation is the main part.

The upstream toluene market ran smoothly, and the price trend was temporarily stable. As of October 18, the domestic average price of toluene was about 7790 yuan/ton, up 1.43% from the beginning of the month. The downstream demand of toluene is weak, the terminal gasoline continues to fall, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the toluene market is weak.

According to the analysis of the future market trend, TDI data engineer of the business agency believed that the overseas market demand was strong, the domestic downstream demand was average, the factory continued to supply in limited quantities, the market spot was tight, the bullish atmosphere was strong, the supplier’s offer was firm, and the supplier’s benefit continued. It was expected that the TDI market would operate at a high level, and the downstream follow-up situation would be specifically concerned.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8368.57 yuan/ton on October 7, and the average price was 8528.57 yuan/ton on October 17, with an increase of 1.91% during the period, 6.87% higher than that on September 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 9980 yuan/ton on October 7 and 10050.00 yuan/ton on October 17, with an increase of 0.70% during the period, up 5.60% compared with August 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 8416.67 yuan/ton on October 7 and 8533.33 yuan/ton on October 17, with an increase of 1.39% during the period, 0.39% higher than that on August 1.

After the festival (October 7-17), the domestic polyethylene spot market rose as a whole, and the three major spot varieties showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with the increase greater than the decrease. During the holidays, international crude oil rose one after another, bringing obvious benefits to the market on the cost side. After the festival, the polyethylene market was driven higher by this. In addition, the downstream storage and replenishment demand after the festival, petrochemical enterprises had a strong mentality, and the ex factory price was higher. However, as the international crude oil stopped rising and fell after the festival, the market was in a bad mood. With the price rising, the downstream acceptance was limited, and they were somewhat resistant to the high price. The enthusiasm for entering the market became weaker, and the market transaction atmosphere became weaker than in the early stage. The price of polyethylene fell back, and the majority of shipments were made at the margin.

From October 7 to 17, the futures market of Liansu rose first and then fell. The decline was greater than the increase, which brought some bad news to the spot. On October 17, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2301 was 7896, the highest price was 7926, the lowest price was 7791, the closing price was 7809, the previous settlement price was 7898, the settlement price was 7855, down 89, the trading volume was 421259, the position was 421870, and the daily position increased 3908. (Quotation unit: yuan/ton)

In terms of current raw materials, the international crude oil price is weak and the cost side brings bad news. On the demand side, with the end of replenishment after the festival, the downstream has limited ability to accept high prices, and the enthusiasm for entering the market has weakened. On the supply side, the current market supply is mainly increased, and the market lacks of advantages. It is expected that the polyethylene spot market will mainly decline in the short term.

After the festival, DBP prices rose in shock

According to the data monitoring of the business community, after the festival, DBP changed from a weak trend, and DBP prices rose sharply. As of October 14, the DBP price was 10066.67 yuan/ton, up 5.96% from 9500 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month. After the festival, the price of raw materials rose sharply, and the accumulated post festival replenishment was more, and the DBP price rose sharply.

The price of raw material phthalic anhydride rose sharply after the festival

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride was 10637.50 yuan/ton as of October 14, up 3.28% from 10300 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month. After the festival, phthalic anhydride enterprises had a lot of maintenance. The price of ortho benzene rose sharply. The supply of phthalic anhydride was tight, and the cost was supported. After the festival, there was a lot of replenishment. The price of phthalic anhydride hit a new high again. The cost of DBP raw materials rose, and the momentum for the rise of DBP in the future market increased.

The price of n-butanol, a raw material, fell after a sharp rise

According to the price monitoring of the business community, after the National Day, the price of n-butanol rose sharply and then fell slightly, and the overall n-butanol market rose sharply. As of October 14, the price of n-butanol was 7500 yuan/ton, up 12.50% from 6666.67 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month. After the festival, the n-butanol manufacturer stopped production due to equipment maintenance, and the enterprise’s inventory was low. Downstream customers made more replenishment after the festival. The multiple advantages stimulated the price of n-butanol to soar. With the end of replenishment, the support for the rise of n-butanol weakened, and the price of n-butanol fell slightly. In general, the price of n-butanol rose sharply, the cost of DBP rose, and the momentum for DBP to rise was strong.

Future market expectation

According to DBP data analysts of the Business Club, due to the impact of holiday replenishment and factory maintenance, the prices of phthalic anhydride and n-butanol rose sharply after the festival, the prices of raw materials rose, the cost of plasticizer DBP rose, and the DBP price rose significantly. In the future, the price of phthalic anhydride will become stable, the price of n-butanol will fall back from its high level, the cost of plasticizer DBP will fall, and the rising support of DBP will weaken the downward pressure. It is expected that the price of DBP in the future will be weak and fluctuated.

The domestic BDO market is mainly on the sidelines. Although the manufacturers have a strong intention to set prices, and the published auction prices are mostly high and stable, the market price has a slight upward trend in the middle and late weeks, and the range is not about 200 yuan/ton. However, the downstream receiving intention is not strong, and it is difficult to make a deal at high prices. The buying and selling atmosphere is light.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from October 8 to 13, the average price of domestic BDO manufacturers at the beginning and end of the week remained at 14600 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 33.79% and a year-on-year decrease of 52.33%. In terms of market price, 14200-14700 yuan/ton was negotiated by the mainstream of spot apron in South China; 15000-16000 yuan/ton (delivered by acceptance); In East China, the spot apron mainstream negotiation is 14200-14500 yuan/ton; The barreled goods are negotiated for 15000-16000 yuan/ton (delivered by acceptance).

In terms of upstream raw materials, raw material calcium carbide: the domestic calcium carbide market is stable and small, road transportation is blocked, and the enterprise’s shipping speed slows down, but the downstream waiting for unloading is low, procurement is active, and the lack of regional arrival affects the downstream commencement. In the short term, the domestic calcium carbide market is expected to rise.

In terms of methanol, the business community monitored that the price of domestic methanol in East China ports fell after the festival, which was 3246 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2850 yuan/ton as of October 13. The price fell by 12.22% during the cycle. At present, the domestic methanol market is weak. BDO cost support is average.

In terms of downstream products, the main downstream PTMEG spandex industry mainly digested inventory, and the market did not fluctuate significantly; Other downstream companies have also followed up with contracts, while the spot market has weakened, restraining the trend of BDO market to some extent.

The manufacturer’s intention to support the market continued, the downstream just needed orders to follow up, and the high price delivery and investment were blocked. The market lacks the guidance of obvious positive factors. Business agency BDO analysts expect that the domestic BDO market will be dominated by shocks.

In October, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride by phthalic acid method continued to rise,Up to now, the quotation of phthalic anhydride by o-phthalic method is 10500 yuan/ton, rising 1.94% in the three days after the festival, mainly due to the tight supply and cost support. The phthalic anhydride market continues to rise, and the price of phthalic anhydride reaches an eight year high .

Supply side: the spot supply of phthalic anhydride plant maintenance is tight

Recently, the supply of phthalic anhydride on the site is very tight. Some domestic devices have been overhauled. The 120000 ton phthalic anhydride device in Tongling, Anhui Province has been overhauled and no goods have been sold. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride device of Xinyang Group has not been started. Affected by the overhaul device, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate has remained below 50%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is very tight. The price of phthalic anhydride on the site continues to rise, reaching an eight year high, The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is 10500-10600 yuan/ton, and the market price of phthalic anhydride in North China is 10400-10500 yuan/ton.

Cost end: the price of ortho benzene rises sharply

The price of domestic ortho benzene rose sharply. As of October 10, the price of ortho benzene was 9600 yuan/ton, up 6.67% in October. According to the manufacturer’s response, the supply of raw materials ortho benzene is tight in the near future, ortho benzene manufacturers are not enough to start construction, the factory has been shut down for maintenance, and phthalic anhydride manufacturers are hard to find supplies. The 160000 t/a ortho benzene unit of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. began to reduce the load gradually at the end of August, and the maintenance is expected to last for 3 months; Fuhaichuang 240000 t/a o-benzene plant has been shut down since the end of June; The 40000 t/a phthalic acid plant of Luoyang Petrochemical stopped production. In addition, the import volume of phthalic acid is not large, and the inventory of main ports has dropped to 8000 tons. The supply of phthalic acid is tight, which restricts the production of phthalic anhydride manufacturers. In addition, the price of phthalic acid has risen significantly. Supported by the cost positive factors, the phthalic anhydride market continues to rise.

Demand side: the higher DOP market demand is guaranteed

The downstream DOP market price trend of phthalic anhydride is rising. At present, the domestic DOP price is 10440 yuan/ton. The domestic DOP enterprises have started to work steadily, and the demand for phthalic anhydride is guaranteed. The mainstream DOP price is 10400-10600 yuan/ton. The rising downstream market is a good support for the phthalic anhydride market, and the phthalic anhydride price continues to rise.

In the future, the port’s ortho xylene inventory is low in the near future, the domestic ortho xylene manufacturers have carried out more maintenance, and the short-term supply of ortho xylene continues to be tight. In addition, the downstream plasticizer industry has gradually entered the peak sales season, and the actual demand has increased compared with the previous one. In addition, the supply of phthalic anhydride is tight, so there are still positive factors, and the market price of phthalic anhydride may rise slightly in the later period.

On September 29, the commodity index of hydrogenated benzene was 87.93, down 0.37 points from yesterday, down 18.71% from the highest point of 108.17 (2022-06-15) in the cycle, and up 193.20% from the lowest point of 29.99 on April 7, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to 2013-12-01 to now).

Crude oil: In September, crude oil continued to play a long short game, with strong negative market conditions and wide price shocks. The increase in interest rates in Europe and the United States has raised the market’s concern about economic recession and the pressure on crude oil demand, putting pressure on oil prices; However, European winter energy supply risks remain, supporting oil prices. As of September 28, Brent fell by 7.17 dollars/barrel, or 7.43%; WTI fell 7.4 dollars/barrel, or 8.26%.

Macroscopically, the continuous strengthening of the US dollar has put pressure on oil prices. In addition, the risk of economic recession is aggravated by the sharp interest rate increase of the global central bank, which then depresses the fuel demand. In addition, as the refinery entered the autumn overhaul period, the decline in operating rate led to the accumulation of crude oil, and many factors triggered a panic decline in the oil market.

Summary of Sinopec Pure Benzene Price Adjustment (Unit: yuan/ton)

Date., Adjusted Price., Adjusted Amount

September 6., 7750.,+150

September 20., 7850.,+100

In September 2022, Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene twice, with a cumulative increase of 250 yuan/ton. As of the 30th, 7850 yuan/ton had been implemented.

Other enterprises: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7980 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7950 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7953 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7950 yuan/ton, Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 8050 yuan/ton.

In September 2022, the market of hydrogenated benzene rose first and then fell. The ex factory price in North China was 7633.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 7900 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 3.49%.

Market price of domestic main hydrogenated benzene in September (unit: yuan/ton)

Market, price on August 30, price on September 30, up and down

East China, 7550 ～ 7650, 7900 ～ 8000,+350

Shandong, 7600 ～ 7700., 7700 ～ 7800.,+100

Looking at the trend chart in September, it can be found that the industrial chain was in an upward trend in most of the whole September, with only the price falling at the end of the month. In the middle and first ten days of the month, supported by the double positive effects of crude oil and styrene, pure benzene price shocks acted as the main driver, driving the overall industry chain to improve. The price of hydrogenated benzene in the upstream of crude benzene rose along with that of pure benzene, and the bidding price of crude benzene was continuously raised due to the boost. After entering the middle and late ten days, the crude oil market fell broadly, and the cost support began to weaken. In terms of downstream trend, styrene rose broadly in September and then fell back, while most other commodities rose in price. There was a general demand for goods in the downstream near the small and long holidays. The market procurement was active, and the improvement of the demand side drove pure benzene higher. As the price of pure benzene continues to rise, the market is increasingly afraid of high spirits. After the decline of both styrene and crude oil, the strength of pure benzene support falls back and the price drops. In terms of ports, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports rose to 64600 tons at the beginning of the month. Later, affected by typhoon weather, the import cargo ships were delayed, and the inventory at the end of the month again fell to a low level. Near the end of the month, the bad news from crude oil and styrene dominated, while the downstream stock preparation was basically ended, the market transaction weakened, and the price fell.

In the future market, crude oil rose at the end of the month. In terms of pure benzene inventory, the port may continue to accumulate stock in the near future. The downstream performance is fair in the near future. There is an expectation that new capacity will be put into production in the downstream. In general, the fundamental support remains. It is expected that after the festival, the price will be stable, moderate and strong. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of international crude oil situation, external market, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics, demand changes, etc. on the trend of the industrial chain.

From September 1 to September 30, 2022, the domestic coal tar production price will rise as a whole, with the price at the beginning of the month at 5915 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month at 6272.5 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 6.04%.

On September 29, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 216.29, down 2.24 points from yesterday, down 1.03% from the cycle’s highest point of 218.53 (2022-09-28), and up 358.73% from the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Changes of coal tar in Shanxi Province according to the bidding price this month (unit: yuan/ton)

Region, price on August 26, price on September 29, monthly rise and fall

Linfen., 5780., 6320.,+540

Lv Liang., 5700., 6270.,+570

Taiyuan., 5650., 6250.,+600

In September 2022, the bidding price of tar in Shanxi will rise as a whole. The bidding price in Shanxi will rise significantly, and the demand of downstream deep processing industry will improve. In particular, the price of industrial naphthalene and coal tar pitch will rise significantly, and the increase in raw material price will be highly accepted.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the monthly coal tar K column chart above that since January 2022, the coal tar market has risen for six consecutive months, only slightly declined in May, and the price remained stable in February. The weekly K column chart shows that the coal tar market has risen for 12 consecutive weeks, and the price has hit record highs for many times.

In September, the price of coal chemical deep processing market continued to rise, but the price of maleic anhydride remained temporarily stable, and most products increased significantly. Downstream commodities performed well, with high acceptance of raw tar price rise. Driven by downstream demand, tar prices continued to rise. In terms of operating rate, the operating rate of deep processing industry in September was maintained at about 50%, no significant change compared with the same period last month.

In September, the price of coal tar hit record highs for many times. Affected by profits, coking enterprises in terms of supply continuously pushed up the price of by-products this month. With the expected increase of production restriction of coking enterprises in October, by-products will face a shortage of supply at that time. The price of the downstream deep processing industry continued to rise this month, and the profit of the enterprise was fair, so the ability to accept the high price of raw tar was strong. However, with the continuous rise of tar, the downstream was more afraid of high prices. At the end of September, the downstream had a mentality of holding down the price, and tar prices in some regions slightly corrected. As of September 29, the mainstream price of coal tar in Shandong was 6060-6130 yuan/ton, Shanxi was 6180-6320 yuan/ton, and Hebei was 6000-6050 yuan/ton. The price in major domestic production areas has exceeded the 6000 yuan mark.

In the future market, affected by comprehensive factors in October, the operating rate of coking enterprises will decline, and the heating season will follow. At that time, the operating rate of coking enterprises will be low as a whole. Boosted by the rise in the price of raw coking coal, the coking enterprises have a strong attitude of price support in the near future, and the tar supply may become tense. Although the downstream deep processing industry also has the expectation of limited production, it still supports the demand for raw materials. From a comprehensive perspective, the business community expects that the tar market will still be supported in the short term and will remain at a high level. It is necessary to focus on the profit of downstream deep processing industry and the commencement of coking enterprises.

Related information:

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in August 2022, China’s coke output will be 39.11 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, 1.5 percentage points higher than that in July, and an increase of 310000 tons or 0.80% month on month. The average daily output in August will be 1.2616 million tons, an increase of 10000 tons or 0.8% compared with 1.2516 million tons in July, but still lower than the average daily output in the first seven months of this year.

From January to August 2022, the national coke output was 318.22 million tons, down 1.1% year on year, 1.3 percentage points less than that from January to July. The cumulative output from January to August was 477.33 million tons annually, higher than the level of 464.46 million tons in the whole year of 2021.