According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on September 29 was 110.47, unchanged from yesterday, 22.55% lower than the peak of 142.64 points (2021-11-01) in the cycle, and 31.01% higher than the lowest point of 84.32 points on August 18, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

 

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According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic market of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride rose first and then fell in September. The market reported 2095 yuan/ton on the first day, 2043.75 yuan/ton on the 29th, with a slight monthly decrease of 2.45%. Among them, the highest price of this month was 2131.25 yuan/ton on September 7, and the lowest price was 2027.5 yuan/ton on September 20, with a maximum monthly amplitude of 4.87%. Since September, affected by the rising cost of raw materials and energy, in the first ten days of this year, manufacturers have offered one price a day or one price for one product. The market is bullish, and the prices of enterprises with tight supply have risen by tens to hundreds of yuan. However, the actual transaction prices of manufacturers with large inventories have increased only limited, and the external quotations are also relatively moderate; In the middle and late ten days, the factory started work normally, the inventory was sufficient, the driving role of raw material factors was weakened, and the market fell back. At the beginning of this month, this round of upward market of polyaluminum chloride had temporarily ended. Due to the restriction of some logistics vehicles during the National Day, the difficulty in finding vehicles and the increase of transportation costs have a certain impact on the market of polyaluminum chloride. With the arrival of the National Day holiday, the procurement is flat, and the market is expected to continue to be stable in the future.

 

Raw hydrochloric acid: In September, the domestic hydrochloric acid market generally rose. The price of hydrochloric acid fell from 163.33 yuan/ton on September 1 to 153.3 yuan/ton on September 10, a decline of 6.12%. Later, it rose to 166.67 yuan/ton on September 24, up 8.70%. The price at the end of the month fell 43.27% year-on-year. Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose and fell with each other this month, and the downstream demand was average. From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream liquid chlorine market has risen sharply, providing good support for hydrochloric acid; The downstream market is less supportive, and the downstream manufacturers are less active in purchasing hydrochloric acid. According to the analysis, the recent market of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate slightly.

 

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LNG for production. According to the data of the business community, the market of LNG in September was volatile and rising, and the overall trend was positive: the average price of domestic LNG on the 29th was 7176 yuan/ton, up 1284 yuan/ton or 21.79% from 5892 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and up 14.09% from the same period last year. Among them, the highest price in this month is 7176 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the lowest price is 5892 yuan/ton on the first day. The market situation in this month is basically going all the way. At present, it is near the National Day holiday, and a large number of goods are replenished downstream due to transportation considerations. There was a strong buying atmosphere on the floor, and the rising trend continued. With the maintenance of the Sino Russian pipeline, the on-site supply is reduced. It is expected that the domestic LNG price trend will continue to rise in the short term.

 

Future forecast: the supply and demand level is relatively stable, the limited transportation market during the National Day holiday is flat, and the polyaluminum chloride market is expected to continue to be stable, moderate and small after the festival.

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1、 Price data

 

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According to the data of the business society, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil as of September 28 was 6550.00 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from 6560.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

 

On September 28, the fuel oil commodity index was 132.66, down 0.61 points from yesterday, 2.24% from the peak of 135.70 (2022-06-21) in the cycle, and 187.89% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

This month, the price of domestic 180CST fuel oil rose first and then fell. At the end of the month, the price of domestic marine oil raw materials fell, and the cost support of 180CST fuel oil was limited. According to the business community, as of September 28, the self raised low sulfur price of 180cst fuel oil in the Zhoushan area was 6550 yuan/ton, and the self raised low sulfur price of 120cst fuel oil was 6650 yuan/ton; The price of 180cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil in CNGC Shanghai is 6550 yuan/ton, and the price of 120cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil is 6650 yuan/ton.

 

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In September, the trend of international crude oil prices was volatile and downward. The decline of crude oil prices was mainly due to the trade-off between the supply risk of Russian oil and the concern about economic recession caused by the Federal Reserve leading the global central bank to raise interest rates. The US strategic oil reserves fell continuously, hitting a 38 year low. OPEC+, an oil producing country, will increasingly demand for reducing inventory and increasing oil prices, and its idle capacity has been very limited, so it will be very difficult to increase production in the later period. Moreover, Western sanctions against Russia are still escalating, the effective period of the oil shipping ban is getting closer and closer, and the supply side is still on the high side in the near future.

 

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, supporting fuel oil prices. It is reported that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG): As of the week of September 28, Singapore’s fuel oil depot had dropped by 1.069 million barrels to a two-week low of 22.331 million barrels.

 

3、 Future market forecast

 

In September, the international crude oil price fell in shock, and the domestic raw material price fell, which was bad for the domestic ship fuel market; Before the festival, the downstream of the ship fuel market has been stocking up. At present, the ship fuel market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and it mainly needs to purchase. At present, the 180CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6500-6700 yuan/ton, and the 120CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6600-6800 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be dominated in the near future.

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1、 Price summary on September 27:

 

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Shijiazhuang Refining&Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 7650 yuan/ton, Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. offered 7600 yuan/ton,

 

Yangba quoted 7800 yuan/ton,

 

Guangzhou Petrochemical offered 7650 yuan/ton, Maoming Petrochemical offered 7600 yuan/ton,

 

Changling Refining&Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 7750 yuan/ton,

 

2、 Fluctuation trend:

 

 

3、 Analysis and comments:

 

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In terms of crude oil, the OPEC+meeting is coming, and the market expects that the meeting policy may be aimed at reducing supply; Before the arrival of Hurricane Ian, the supply in the US Gulf region was limited, and international oil prices rebounded yesterday.

 

Today, Sinopec lowered toluene by 100 yuan/ton in East China.

 

Crude oil rebounded and gasoline rose slightly, which was good for the toluene market. However, the market negotiation was weak, and the price of toluene in Sinopec East China was lowered, so the operators were cautious.

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According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, as of September 27, the average price quoted by formic acid enterprises was 3500.00 yuan/ton, down 4.55% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, 16.67% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, and 55.70% year-on-year.

 

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In September, after the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market rose slightly at the beginning of the month, the enterprise quotation was mainly stable, and the high-end price of some enterprises was loose. In the first ten days of this year, the price of upstream raw materials rose and fell with each other, and the cost support was average. Mainstream production enterprises started at a low level. The main downstream formate market followed up and improved, and the improvement in supply and demand supported a small rise in the price of formic acid. In the middle of the year, the impact of cost is small, the enterprise’s shipment is fair, and the demand of Jinjiuyinshi is less than expected. The downstream pharmaceutical, rubber, leather, pesticide and other industries purchase on demand. The overall market price is stable, and some enterprises’ high-end prices are loose. In the last ten days, the cost has little impact. Downstream goods are prepared in an orderly manner as required. The market has no obvious fluctuations. The focus of negotiation is stable.

 

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In terms of cost: upstream caustic soda, the price of caustic soda on the 27th was supported by a positive trend, while downstream demand was good due to the preparation of goods before the festival, and it was expected that the trend would be better in the later period; Upstream liquid ammonia, on the 26th, the market of liquid ammonia in Shandong was light and stable, and the market was deadlocked; For upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price was temporarily stable on September 27; On September 26, the reference price of upstream methanol was 2740.00, an increase of 8.39% compared with September 1 (2528.00).

 

The formic acid analysts of the business community believe that the current cost side has some support. The supply and demand side mainly purchases on demand, and the market stock is orderly. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will be mainly stable, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of 55% powdered monoammonium in Sichuan on September 19 was 3100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 55% powdered monoammonium in Sichuan on September 26 was 3116 yuan/ton. The market price of monoammonium phosphate rose 0.54% this week.

 

According to the data from the bulk list of business cooperatives, the average price of 64% of diammonium phosphate in the Yunnan Guizhou region was 3966 yuan/ton on September 19, and 3983 yuan/ton on September 26. The market price of diammonium phosphate rose 0.42% this week.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Ammonium phosphate inquiry increased this week, and the market demand was running well. The price of raw sulfur has been raised and the cost support is good. The demand of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises followed up, and the domestic monoammonium phosphate rose steadily. The domestic diammonium phosphate market has a good turnover, with downstream procurement on demand, and new orders have increased. As of September 26, 55% of the factory price of powdered monoammonium in Hubei was 2850-2950 yuan/ton, 55% in Sichuan was 2850-3500 yuan/ton, and 73% in Sichuan was 6150 yuan/ton. The ex factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 3700-3800 yuan/ton, the quotation of 64% diammonium in Yunnan is about 4000 yuan/ton, and the quotation of 64% diammonium in Guizhou is about 3800 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

 

In terms of raw sulfur, the price of sulfur in East China rose this week, with an average price of 1323.33 yuan/ton on September 26. The sulfur price of refinery enterprises in Shandong Province has been raised. The mainstream price of solid sulfur is about 1250-1470 yuan/ton, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 1250-1430 yuan/ton, and the price is increased by 50-100 yuan/ton, subject to the actual transaction price. On the downstream side, the sulphuric acid market was consolidated and operated. The price in some regions was raised. The ammonium phosphate market was mainly stable. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm was good, and the demand for sulfur procurement increased. The price of refineries in Shandong Province was raised. The surrounding sulphuric acid manufacturers were active in purchasing, and the enterprise shipments were smooth. In addition, the price in the port market was rising, which boosted the industry’s mentality, and the sulfur market was consolidated.

 

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In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic market for medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore continued to operate steadily this week. As of September 26, the reference price of phosphate rock was 1064.00. The site is generally quiet, with little change in information. At present, the supply side is still tight, and the supply side continues to provide high support for the market. From the demand side, the low commencement of downstream phosphate fertilizer has brought some concern to the market.

 

3、 Future market forecast

 

Ammonium phosphate analysts from the business community believe that the recent market for ammonium phosphate raw materials is good and the cost support is favorable. The fertilizer market began to start in autumn, the downstream demand increased, and the trading and investment in the market increased. It is expected that in the short term, the market price of ammonium phosphate will be mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range.

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The butadiene rubber market rose slightly this week (9.16-9.23). According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China was 13040 yuan/ton as of September 23, up 0.46% from 12980 yuan/ton last Friday. The ex factory price of two barrels of oil of butadiene rubber was basically stable this week. Only the northeast sales company of CNPC raised the ex factory price of butadiene rubber by 100 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 23, the ex factory price of butadiene rubber of northeast sales company of CNPC reported 12700 yuan/ton The offer from merchants was firm. As of the 23rd, the offer from the butadiene rubber market was 12800~13400 yuan/ton, and the private butadiene mainstream was 12500~12700 yuan/ton.

 

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The short-term maintenance of 150000 t/a cis-1,4-polybutadiene unit of Sichuan Petrochemical Corporation, the shutdown of Taixiang Yubu for maintenance, the load reduction operation of Haopu and Zhenhua units, the pressure on the short-term supply side is relieved, and the supply side forms a support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber.

 

The butadiene market fell slightly this week (9.14-9.21), but the price has still risen since September, which continues to support the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 23, the price of butadiene was 8937 yuan/ton, down 1.74% from 9096 yuan/ton last Friday, and up 3.18% from 8662 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

 

The natural rubber market rose slightly this week, but the price was lower than that of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, which was insufficient to support cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of natural rubber was 12152 yuan/ton as of September 23, up 0.43% from 12100 yuan/ton last Friday.

 

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Since September, the commencement of downstream tire enterprises has not seen a significant increase, and the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has been supported to some extent, but the strength is not great. In addition, the domestic tire output from January to August declined year on year, and the overall demand was weaker than last year. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in August 2022, China’s output of rubber tire casings was 72.265 million, down 2.2% year on year. From January to August, the output of rubber tire casing decreased by 5.6% to 56422.1 million pieces compared with the same period last year.

 

Future market forecast: according to the analysts of the business community, the supply pressure of the butadiene rubber production chain has eased, the demand side just needs weak support, and the cost side is going up. It is expected that the price of butadiene rubber will be strong in the short term, and the changes in the supply and demand side still need to be concerned in the medium and long term.

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After the domestic butadiene market rose, the main reason was the increase in supply. This week, the major producers in Northeast China, Beibei Huajin and Fushun Petrochemical, started external bidding. At the same time, the external market performance was weak, the downstream cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber starting load decreased, and the demand was poor. It was difficult to continue the rise in the domestic butadiene market.

 

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According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from September 16 to 22, the domestic butadiene market price rose from 9032 yuan/ton to 9148 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.28%, 16.15% month on month and 19.56% year on year. In terms of price, the delivery price in Shandong Luzhong is 9300-9400 yuan/ton, and the self lifting price in East China is 8700-8900 yuan/ton.

 

For enterprises, the butadiene price of Sinopec sales companies is 9000 yuan/ton. The 160000 t/a butadiene extraction unit of Fushun Petrochemical was in stable operation, 210 tons of goods were sold abroad through competitive bidding, and the bidding base price was 9000 yuan/ton. The 64000 t/a butadiene extraction unit of Shenhua Ningxia Coal is operating normally. At present, a small amount of goods are exported, and the price is reduced by 700 yuan/ton to 8600 yuan/ton.

 

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In terms of external market: as of the closing on September 21, the price of Asian butadiene external market remained stable: FOB Korea closed at 945-955 US dollars/ton; CFR China closed at US $985-995 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 1495-1505 dollars/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1485-1495 euros/ton.

 

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia, FOB Korea, 945-955 US dollars/ton, 0 yuan/ton

Asia, CFR China, 985-995 USD/ton, 0 USD/ton

Europe and America, FOB Rotterdam, 1495-1505 USD/ton, 0 USD/ton

Europe., FD Northwest Europe., 1485-1495 euros/ton., 0 euros/ton

 

At present, the supply side benefits disappear, while the downstream synthetic rubber market trend is weak, and the demand side support is relatively limited. Butadiene analysts from the business community predict that the domestic butadiene market may decline in the short term.

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1. Related information

 

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1.1 In August, China’s refined copper (electrolytic copper) output was 917000 tons, up 3.9% year on year

 

From January to August, the output of refined copper (electrolytic copper) was 7.118 million tons, up 2.6% year on year; China’s copper production in August was 1.965 million tons, up 7.3% year on year. From January to August, the copper production was 14.184 million tons, up 4.3% year on year.

 

1.2 China Nonferrous Metals News: Can China’s crude copper refining capacity continue to expand?

 

By the end of 2021, China has a worldwide copper rough refining capacity of 8.82 million tons/year, and a global copper concentrate copper bearing capacity of 3.24 million tons/year in the same period.

 

In terms of production capacity, the self-sufficiency rate of crude copper refining resources in China is only 36.7%, while the copper bearing capacity of two major copper mine projects, Las Bambas Copper Mine and Toromocho Copper Mine, which are held by Chinese enterprises in Peru, totals 700000 tons/year. Both normal production is affected by different degrees due to community problems, and the actual resource security is lower.

 

From the perspective of resource supply, industrial operation, demand situation and corporate responsibility, China’s copper rough refining capacity should not continue to expand without the supply of its own copper resources.

 

2. Panel condition

 

The copper price continued to fluctuate in a narrow range yesterday, with 2714 net positions reduced and 8875 net positions reduced in the domestic market.

 

On the macro level, the results of the interest meeting are about to be released. Today, the market sentiment is weak. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 75bp with a high probability in September. Within the market expectation, the market sentiment will recover after the boots are landed.

 

Fundamentally, the average premium of Copper Changjiang Nonferrous Metals is 830 yuan/ton, which is still at a historical high. The LME (0-3) premium is 68 dollars/ton. At the same time, the inventory of the world’s three major exchanges continues to decline to 184100 tons. Both sides of the copper market may be playing a game around delivery, which is weaker than at the beginning of the week.

 

In the short term, the macro emotional disturbance will intensify next week, but the back structure of high premium+low inventory will continue to strengthen, and the long short game will intensify. It is expected that the volatility of copper prices will intensify in the week.

 

Strong supply and demand support.

 

On the supply side, the copper concentrate port stock is 971000 tons, and the TC is at 81.6 dollars/dry ton, so the supply at the mine side is acceptable. In August, the domestic refined copper output was 917000 tons, up 3.9% year on year, and the smelting capacity was running smoothly.

 

From the perspective of copper exports and output, exports in August fell by 38.6% year on year, but the overall growth from January to August was still 6% year on year; The domestic output in August was 1.965 million tons, up 7.3% year on year. The domestic market and export consumption are performing well, and the current peak consumption season of Jinjiuyinshi is still expected.

 

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3. Core logic

 

In the short term, with the support of fundamentals, the mood at the early stage of the interest meeting was weak. After the boots landed, the copper price may be strengthened by stages, and it is expected that the copper price will first decrease and then increase. Short term focus on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase plan in September.

 

4. Spot transaction

 

According to Shanghai Metal Network, transactions in the spot market were average yesterday, with the premium falling by 95 yuan/ton. Copper prices rebounded slightly. The spot premium was lower than the day before yesterday. In the session, the main stream of Pingshui copper rose by 630 yuan, and the good copper rose by about 650 yuan. The wet copper and differential copper were reported to be scarce.

 

5. Strategy Suggestions

 

It is suggested that speculators operate in a range, and short-term periodic bull opportunities can be concerned; It is better to purchase on demand at the industrial end. Pay attention to the risk points such as the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate increase signal, consumption and epidemic situation.

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The domestic methanol market rose and fell back, the methanol price rose significantly in the early stage, the recent rise slowed down, and the prices in some regions fell back. The international crude oil price fluctuated at a high level, while the coal price supported at a high level. At present, the main reasons that affect the methanol price are supply and demand. Most of the early maintenance devices have been restarted, and new devices such as Jiutai and Kunpeng have been put into operation. The supply has increased. However, the demand is general, most of them are rigid, and there is no sign of increase in the short term. Traders are mainly wait-and-see, and the international demand is poor. The rise of methanol market has slowed down, and the market is mainly volatile.

 

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According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of East China ports in the domestic methanol market fell from 2726 yuan/ton to 2710 yuan/ton from September 13 to 20. During the cycle, the price fell by 0.60%, with the maximum amplitude of 2.77%. The price rose by 14.25% month on month and fell by 11.55% year on year.

 

As of the closing of September 20, the methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell back in shock. The MA2301 contract was opened at 2686 yuan/ton, with the highest price of 2722 yuan/ton and the lowest price of 2657 yuan/ton. The closing price of the MA2301 contract was 2660 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, the position of the MA2301 contract was 1332300 hands, up 71100 hands from the previous trading day.

 

Summary of methanol market prices by regions as of September 20:

 

Region, price

Qinghai region, no quotation

Shanxi Province, 2600-2630 yuan/ton

Liaoning Province, about 2900-2920 yuan/ton

Fujian, 2700-2730 yuan/ton

Two Lakes region, about 2785-2830 yuan/ton

Anhui Province, about 2820-2870 yuan/ton

Henan Province, 2800 yuan/ton

 

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The price of products in the methanol industry chain has risen and fallen, the price of natural gas in the upstream product of methanol has been stable, the average price of coal has risen in a narrow range, and the cost of methanol is well supported; Among the downstream products, the price of methane chloride in Shandong increased the most; Among related products, Shandong’s ethylene glycol price rose the most.

 

In terms of external market, as of September 19, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 365.00-366.00 dollars/ton. US Gulf Methanol Market closed at 104.75-105.75 cents/gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market was closed.

 

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 365.00-366.00 USD/ton, 0 USD/ton

Europe, America, Gulf of America, 104.75-105.75 cents/gallon, 0 cents/gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam,/Euro/ton,/Euro/ton

In the early stage, the shortage of supply has absorbed some of the benefits. In terms of downstream demand, each product is slightly different: BMW Hebi, the main producer of dimethyl ether, plans to restart and its output may increase; In terms of acetic acid, Hualu plans to reduce the output of acetic acid around the 20th; In terms of formaldehyde, Shandong Lianyi’s inventory decreased as expected, and the output may decrease; The start-up of other downstream MTBE and MTO units is relatively stable. The short-term supply has increased, while the demand side has no obvious positive effect. Methanol analysts of the business community predict that the domestic methanol market may weaken.

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On September 19, the domestic futures market closed, with most of the commodity futures falling, led by energy chemicals, among which PTA fell by more than 3%. PTA spot price fell with each other. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of the domestic PTA spot market was 6579 yuan/ton on September 19, down 2.02% from the previous trading day and up 33.10% year on year.

 

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In terms of devices, with the restart of Sichuan Energy Chemical’s 1 million ton device after a short shutdown, the load of two sets of 3.3 million ton devices of Eason New Materials increased by 80%, and the PTA load increased to more than 70%. However, in general, PTA spot stocks are still relatively small and continue to be de stocked. According to statistics, as of September 15, the domestic PTA social inventory was 2025900 tons.

 

In the crude oil market, the good news on the supply side and the bad news on the demand side are playing a game. In particular, the geopolitical tension is becoming more serious, and the oil price is subject to more interference factors, which will further aggravate the shock of the oil market. Under the tight supply and demand of PX itself, PTA cost side support is relatively strong.

 

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Due to the gradual easing of the high-temperature weather in the terminal weaving in the near future, the starting load continues to rise, and the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is more than 71%. However, even in the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” inventory level, it is difficult to achieve the level of previous years. Therefore, the demand side of polyester remained flat, which led to the increased pressure on the polyester factory to go out of the warehouse and the difficulty in effectively improving the commencement.

 

Analysts from the business community believe that although some devices have been restarted or the load has been increased recently, the short-term supply of PTA is difficult to increase significantly, which will still support the price of PTA. However, the sustainability of the downstream demand side warming remains to be further observed.

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