According to the monitoring data of business agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on August 20 was 95.14, which was the same as yesterday, down 14.68% from the highest point 111.51 (2021-11-03) in the cycle, and up 14.78% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Commodity market: the data monitoring of the business association shows that the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market is relatively stable in the recent (August 11-20) period. The current main manufacturers have normal production, sufficient market inventory, general downstream demand, and relatively light transactions.

Industrial chain: upstream raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business agency, the recent (August 11-20) acrylonitrile market has gone up and down first. On the 20th, the domestic acrylonitrile spot market price was 8950 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.11% compared with 8940 yuan / ton on the 11th. The domestic acrylonitrile market is consolidated, the supply side is loose, the market trading atmosphere is slightly improved but still weak, and the acrylonitrile business offers are consolidated in a narrow range.

Raw material acrylic acid: according to the data of business agency, the quotation of acrylic acid in East China was relatively stable in that week (August 11-20), with the main price of about 8100 yuan / ton. At present, the cost and supply side are supported to a certain extent. The market transaction is mainly based on the demand, and the cautious wait-and-see attitude is strong. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stable, medium and strong in the short term. More attention should be paid to market information and guidance.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on August 11, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 7142 yuan / ton, and on August 20, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 6680 yuan / ton. The price of domestic liquefied natural gas fell by 6.47% in that day. The domestic LNG market trend is weak. The liquid price rebounded and stabilized at the weekend. At present, the cost side is still supported. Although the downstream demand is weak, the on-site supply is reduced. It is expected that the price of liquefied natural gas will be stable and upward in the short term.

Future forecast: in the middle of this month, the raw material cost changes little, the cost support is relatively stable, the market spot inventory is sufficient, and the downstream demand and transaction are general. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market will continue to be stable in the future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of August 19, 2022, the market price of organosilicon DMC in the mainstream region was 20680 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 15, 2022 (the reference price of organosilicon DMC was 18960 yuan / ton), the price increased by 1720 yuan / ton, or 9.07%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that this week (August 15-august 19), the domestic silicone DMC market ushered in an upward trend. Due to the impact of power limitation in some regions, the recent market of raw metal silicon has been rising all the way. Therefore, the support of cost for organosilicon DMC has been gradually strengthened. Since the beginning of this week, the market price of organosilicon DMC has been steadily rising. Shandong large factory has increased the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC for two consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 800 yuan / ton. On August 18, the organosilicon DMC of this factory was temporarily reported to be around 19700 yuan / ton. On August 19, Shandong large factory continued to increase the price of organosilicon DMC to break the 20000 mark, referring to 20800 yuan / ton, and increased by 1700 yuan / ton in the week. The price of organosilicon DMC of leading manufacturers has also been significantly increased, and the quotation is around 20800-21000 yuan / ton. As of August 19, the domestic market price of silicone DMC was around 20500-21000 yuan / ton, with an increase of more than 9% in the week. At present, the downstream demand is generally general, and the early stage has been prepared, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the current market.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, the price of metal silicon has soared by about 4500 yuan / ton in the last half month, an increase of 24.51% compared with the beginning of the month. As of August 18, according to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic 331 # metal silicon is 22400 yuan / ton. The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Huangpu port is 22300-22500 yuan / ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin port is 22400-22500 yuan / ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming is 22000-22200 yuan / ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Sichuan is 22000-22100 yuan / ton; Shanghai # 441 metal silicon price range is 23000-23100 yuan / ton. The main reasons for the sharp rise in the price of metal silicon are the high-temperature power shortage in Sichuan and the disturbance of the epidemic in Xinjiang. Xinjiang and Sichuan are the largest and third largest production areas of metal silicon in China. The production capacity of the main production areas in Xinjiang accounts for about 35%, and that of Sichuan accounts for about 20%. The two major production areas reduce production and increase production, driving the price of metal silicon to rise strongly.

Forecast of the future trend of silicone DMC Market

At present, the driving force of the upward trend of the silicone DMC market is mainly from the end of raw materials. The upward trend of raw materials drives the cost to increase. The quotation of the silicone DMC factory is strong, but the support given by the downstream demand side is general, and the demand side performance is still calm. The silicone DMC analysts of the business society believe that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market is mostly strong, and the operation is mainly based on consolidation, Whether the market can be continuously supported still needs to pay more attention to the news changes on the demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5783 yuan / ton on August 12, and the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5850 yuan / ton on August 18. This week, the price of chlorinated paraffin increased by 1.15%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of chlorinated paraffin increased, and the domestic operating rate was about 60%. The price of chlorinated paraffin raw liquid wax is rising, the price of raw liquid chlorine is mainly fluctuating, and the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is generally rising. The downstream demand for chlorinated paraffins is weak, and the market transaction is weak. The market trading atmosphere needs to be improved. As of August 18, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui Province was about 6000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China was 5000-5500 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax rose this week. The price of liquid wax continued to rise from the beginning of the week to the end of the week, following the change of crude oil market. The on-site transaction was acceptable. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine rose and fell this week, and the manufacturers have strong intention to support the price. The downstream demand is weak, and the just need to purchase is dominant.

3、 Future forecast

According to the chlorinated paraffin analyst of business club, the current market of chlorinated paraffin raw materials is strong, the price of liquid chlorine in some regions is increased, and the cost support is strengthened. However, the market demand is weak, the transaction is poor, and the trading volume on the floor is small. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will be weak and stable in the short term.

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, as of August 17, the average price of formic acid enterprises was 3766.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price on last Wednesday (August 10), down 3.42% compared with the price on July 17, and down 37.91% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

In the near future (August 10-August 17), the market price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China has been running steadily. Recently, the upstream caustic soda, liquid ammonia weak finishing, and sulfuric acid prices have fallen. The market price of the main raw material methanol is low, the cost side supports the formic acid market generally, the downstream demand continues to be just needed to purchase, the enterprise’s normal shipment is the main factor, the market transaction is stable, and the negotiation focus of the industrial grade 85% formic acid market is stable.

Cost: upstream caustic soda, the price of caustic soda was adjusted and put into operation on August 16. The overall shipment of the market is relatively stable, the operating load of downstream alumina enterprises is not high, the market wait-and-see mood is strong, and the demand continues to be weak; Upstream liquid ammonia: on August 16, the liquid ammonia Market in Shandong remained stable, the market performance was still weak, and some dealers sold the products at a profit; Upstream sulfuric acid: on August 16, the domestic sulfuric acid market price was temporarily stable; For the upstream methanol, according to the monitoring data of the business association, on August 16, the reference price of methanol was 2458.00, a decrease of 3.8% compared with August 1 (2555.00).

According to the formic acid analyst of the business association, the current cost support is limited. The quotation of formic acid enterprises follows the market, and the downstream inquiry and purchase are based on demand. The market negotiation atmosphere is calm. It is expected that in the short term, 85% of the domestic industrial grade formic acid market will be stable, and more attention should be paid to the changes in raw material prices.

This week (from August 5 to August 12), the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese dropped slightly. The spot market price in East China was 16400 yuan / ton at the end of last week, and it was 16300 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 100 yuan / ton, down 0.61%.

Manganese ore: this week, the manganese ore market continued to decline, and the market divergence was large. Some of the miners holding the goods were not willing to ship, and they were willing to support the price. Another part of the traders had the initiative to ship, which led to the current port market maintaining a single negotiation state, and the overall transaction fell by more than 1 yuan / ton. On August 12, Tianjin Hong Kong and Macao block was around 47.5 yuan / ton, Gabon was around 45 yuan / ton, and South Africa Semi carbonated acid was 35 yuan / ton. Qinzhou Hong Kong and Macao block is about 50.5 yuan / ton, Gabon is about 47.8 yuan / ton, and South Africa Semi carbonated acid is about 36 yuan / ton. The port transactions remained relatively low, and the buyer’s price reduction was obvious.

The K-bar chart of commodity price reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the idea of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy and sell according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red indicates rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above weekly and monthly k-column diagram of electrolytic manganese that since March 2022, electrolytic manganese has continued to decline.

This week, the market price of electrolytic manganese continued to decline. At the beginning of this week, the mainstream price of electrolytic manganese market was around 14400-14800 yuan / ton, and the low-priced goods appeared frequently in the market, which once again affected the market mentality. In addition, the slow progress of steel bidding in this month made the steel factory have a strong mentality of price reduction. Overseas sales are generally weak, and the overall market price is expected to be weak in the weak market of supply and demand. The market is concerned about the new round of steel moves, and the wait-and-see mood is strong.

In terms of manganese and silicon, the price of silicon and manganese was slightly repaired this week, and the futures market price slightly improved. The main contract closed at 7400 yuan / ton, and the spot performance was temporarily general. In August, the steel bidding was accepted and delivered to the range of 7300-7400 yuan / ton, and the market transaction was improved. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the market price of silicon and manganese in Ningxia region (specification: femn68si18) on August 12 was about 7100-7200 yuan / ton.

According to the data of business agency, as of August 14, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 6520.00 yuan / ton (tax included), up 0.15% from 6510.00 yuan / ton on August 8.

On August 14, the fuel oil commodity index was 132.05, which was the same as yesterday, down 2.69% from the highest point 135.70 in the cycle (June 21, 2022), and up 186.57% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The rise of international crude oil prices is supported by the cost of ship fuel market. According to the business news agency, as of August 14, the price of 180CST fuel oil from Zhoushan region of China National combustion Corporation was 6550 yuan / ton, and the price of 120cst fuel oil from Zhoushan region was 6650 yuan / ton; In Shanghai, the price of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6500 yuan / ton, and the price of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6600 yuan / ton.

International crude oil prices rose, and US gasoline inventories fell sharply last week; In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised the growth forecast of oil demand this year, and the data level eased the expected pressure of demand decline caused by economic recession; Combined with the soaring price of natural gas, the demand for oil as an alternative energy has been boosted. On the other hand, gasoline stocks in the United States have dropped significantly; In addition, the CPI data of the United States in July showed that inflation was lower than expected and risk appetite improved, boosting the upward trend of oil prices.

The decrease of fuel oil inventory in Singapore supports the price of fuel oil. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of August 10, Singapore’s fuel oil storage fell by 939000 barrels, to the lowest level since July 2019, reaching 17.07 million barrels; Light distillate oil inventories rose 250000 barrels to reach a two-week high of 17.667 million barrels; Medium distillate stocks fell by 964000 barrels to a two-week low of 7.402 million barrels.

Future forecast: the rise of international crude oil will boost the ship fuel market. At present, the domestic ship fuel market is mainly on a wait-and-see basis, with light transactions, limited terminal demand and just need to purchase. This week, the overall price of ship fuel market remained stable. At present, the market price of 180CST low sulfur fuel oil is about 6500 yuan / ton, and the market price of 120cst low sulfur fuel oil is about 6600 yuan / ton, which is a single discussion. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will be sorted out in the near future.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the low level of the domestic PA66 market rose slightly this week, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell. As of August 12, the average ex factory price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding grade sample enterprises of business agency was about 21150 yuan / ton, up or down 1.93% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, the domestic adipic acid price continued to be weak this week. The confidence of the upstream pure benzene market is poor, and the cost side is still bad. At present, the inventory pressure is not reduced, and the price reduction of the manufacturer’s inventory has suppressed the market mentality, and the market demand is weak. In addition, the domestic adiponitrile of Tianchen Tianchen Qixiang adiponitrile production line was shipped step by step, starting to replace some imported sources.

The market of adipic acid, the upstream raw material, is still weak, the bad news of adiponitrile continues, and the cost side support of PA66 is weak. In terms of industrial operating rate, the load level of domestic PA66 industry continued to drop in the early period due to the continuous pressure on the profits of PA66 enterprises. At present, the spot supply in the market has contracted, and the supply pressure has been partially eased. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. On the demand side, the current end-user enterprises tend to follow up with goods to maintain production, and have strong resistance to high price goods. In the traditional off-season, the demand of downstream factories shrinks, and the merchants have great resistance to shipment. The on-site transaction is still light. However, the reduction of low-end goods supply has reinforced the mentality of merchants, narrowed the margin of profit, and some brands of products have tried to rise.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 eased this week. The raw material side adiponitrile market is weak, and the cost side support of PA66 is weakened. The load of PA66 enterprises is low, the contradiction between supply and demand in the field is weakened, the demand side is short of goods, and the transaction is light. It is expected that PA66 will continue to be affected by the slow follow-up of the downstream in the short term and will mainly be sorted out and operated.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5883 yuan / ton on August 5, and the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5783 yuan / ton on August 11. This week, the price of chlorinated paraffin dropped by 1.70%.

2、 Market analysis

Chlorinated paraffin prices fell this week. The price of chlorinated paraffin raw material liquid chlorine and liquid wax decreased, and the cost support was insufficient. The downstream demand for chlorinated paraffins is weak, the trading volume in the field is general, and the downstream is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. This week, the operating rate of chlorinated paraffin enterprises is about 60%. As of August 11, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is about 5800 yuan / ton, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast is 5000-5500 yuan / ton, and the market quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong is 5850-6000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax fell first and then rose this week. The price of liquid wax began to fall at the beginning of the week following the change of crude oil market, and the market began to strengthen on Wednesday. The on-site transaction is average. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine rose and fell this week, and the overall market was stable. Shandong has a large inventory of liquid chlorine, the price is mainly downward, and the market demand is insufficient.

3、 Future forecast

The chlorinated paraffin analyst of business club believes that the current market demand for chlorinated paraffin is sluggish, the trading atmosphere is poor, and the trading volume on the floor is relatively small. The raw material market weakened, the cost of chlorinated paraffin decreased, and the raw material market rebounded slightly at the weekend. It is expected that the price range of chlorinated paraffins will be dominated by weak and volatile operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, the price of mixed xylene declined slightly this week. On July 29, the price was 8160 yuan / ton; On Friday (August 5), the price was 8090 yuan / ton, 0.86% lower than last week and 36.2% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

During the week, due to the broad decline of crude oil, the external toluene was weak, and the support of external news was weak, which led to the decline of mixed xylene. However, the demand of downstream PX for mixed xylene is acceptable, the enterprise inventory level is low, and the tight supply limits the decline.

In the external market, the mixed xylene in Asia fell sharply this week. On Thursday (August 4), the price of imported mixed xylene from South Korea was US $962 / T, a year-on-year decrease of US $54 / T, a decrease of 5.31%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 965 US dollars / ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 54 US dollars / ton, or 5.3%.

In terms of crude oil, the US crude oil and gasoline inventories increased, adding to the weak economic data, the market worried about the slowdown of oil demand, and the crude oil fell broadly in the week. As of August 5, Brent price of this week has dropped by 15.09 USD / barrel or 13.72% compared with last week; WTI fell by 9.61 USD / barrel, or 9.74%.

On the downstream side, in the PX market, the domestic PX price fell sharply this week. On July 29, the price was 9550 yuan / ton, and on Friday (August 5), the price was 9000 yuan / ton, down 5.76% from last week and up 23.29% from the same period last year.

In the ox market, the price of ox in East China fell this week. On Friday (August 5), the price of ox in East China was 8000 yuan / ton, down 3.61% from last week and up 26.98% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong fell after rising this week. On July 29, the price was 8541 yuan / ton, and on August 5, the price was 8555 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.17% over last week and 10.55% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the oil market is stuck. Due to the weak economic data caused by the interest rate hikes of many countries, the pressure of crude oil decline increases. However, OPEC + has limited production capacity and oil supply is still tight. Crude oil is a long and short game, and the trend is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic situation, etc. on crude oil prices.

The demand for downstream PX still exists, and the short-term supply of mixed xylene continues to be tight, supporting the price. In the later period, if the decline of crude oil is suspended, mixed xylene may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, and the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory and outer disk on mixed xylene price.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 9, the pet water bottle level pet price of this week has been operating in a narrow range, with the current average price of 8980 yuan / ton. The overall market has been operating in a narrow range, the focus of negotiation is stable, the market supply and demand are balanced, and the logistics delivery is smooth at present.

The domestic pet price is operating in a narrow range and weak. This week, the price has been reduced slightly. At present, the market operation rate is normal, the manufacturers are active in shipping, the logistics is smooth, the profit is given away, the market transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, the downstream readiness is general, and the cost is lack of support. At present, the mainstream price is about 8900 yuan / ton. This week, the price has been reduced slightly. In the short term, pet is stable, medium and weak.

Upstream ethylene glycol: the latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on August 4 was 4441.67 yuan / ton, down 1.3% from the previous trading day and 20.21% year-on-year.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: on August 8, the rubber and plastic index was 717 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 32.36% from the highest point 1060 points in the cycle (March 14, 2012), and up 35.80% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now).

Pet analysts of business agency believe that the pet market is expected to operate in a narrow range in the short term. (if you want to know more about the latest market trends of the industrial chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business association to obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).