According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 17, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9700.00 yuan/ton, 0.26% higher than the price on Monday, and 1.39% higher than the price on November 1.

The propylene oxide market rose slightly this week. From the perspective of cost, the market price of raw propylene has fallen recently, and the cost support is insufficient. From the perspective of supply and demand: some units have fluctuated in the near future, the supply has shrunk for a short time, the factory shipments have been smooth, and the prices are not subject to pressure. The downstream follow up on demand, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is getting stronger. On the 17th, the mainstream quotation of the propylene oxide market in Shandong was around 9150-9300 yuan/ton.

On November 16, the reference price of upstream propylene was 7236.60, up 2.84% compared with November 1 (7036.60).

The propylene oxide analysts of the business community believe that the current cost support is average, and the supply side is not under pressure at present. However, under the expectation of supply increase, the downstream is mainly wait-and-see, and the market is cautious. It is expected that the propylene oxide market will be weak in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

The price of domestic fluorite rose slightly. As of the 14th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3200 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from 3175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. At present, the price remains at a high level.

Supply side: the supply of low level raw materials is tight when the mine starts

The operating rate of domestic supply side remains low, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral survey is still difficult. Mining enterprises are faced with increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient starting of fluorite mines, shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials, limited starting of fluorite flotation, insufficient spot supply, serious epidemic in some regions, difficult transportation of fluorite, very tight supply of fluorite, and high fluorite prices.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid market rose, refrigerant price temporarily stabilized

The price trend of downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose. As of the 14th, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was 11185.71 yuan/ton, up 6.97% from the end of October. The domestic hydrofluoric acid market trend rose. In some northern regions, the epidemic situation was repeated, some devices were stopped, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid was reduced. The rising price of the hydrofluoric acid market formed a positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the fluorite market price remained high.

The market of downstream refrigerant products of the terminal is fair, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the demand for R22 market applications is guaranteed. The market quotation of R22 is between 18000-20000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price has not changed much, the trichloroethylene price remains unchanged, the cost support is still in place, and the R134a trading focus remains stable. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 25000-27000 yuan/ton. Previously, downstream refrigerant enterprises were all trading at a loss in order to compete for HFC production quota. With the implementation of three generation refrigerant quota, the history of quota competition in the refrigerant industry is coming to an end, which also provides a basis for the price increase of the industrial chain.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry in the downstream, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, has been continuously developed in emerging fields. It is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite cathode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand of new energy, semiconductor and other fields driving, the outlook of the fluorochemical industry chain has been supported in the long run.

Future market forecast: North fluorite enterprises are about to enter a seasonal shutdown period. In addition to the recent shortage of raw material fluorite ore supply, the refrigerant industry began to stock up in the fourth quarter. The new energy, semiconductor and new material industries developed rapidly, supporting the demand for fluorite for a long time. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, believes that the price of fluorite market is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price index of the domestic rare earth market fell slightly, and the domestic rare earth market was weak and hard to change. On November 14, the rare earth index was 628 points, down 2.90% from the beginning of the month, down 37.64% from the peak of 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and up 131.73% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The prices of domestic metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have declined to varying degrees. As of the 15th, the price of praseodymium and neodymium metal was 785000 yuan/ton, down 0.63% from the beginning of the month; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 642500 yuan/ton, 0.39% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of neodymium oxide was 715,000 yuan/ton, down 2.72% from the beginning of the month; The price of neodymium metal was 905000 yuan/ton, 0.55% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of praseodymium metal was 905000 yuan/ton, 4.23% lower than that at the beginning of the month; The price of praseodymium oxide was 665,000 yuan/ton, 8.28% lower than the price at the beginning of the month.

The circulation of light rare earths in China has decreased, the inventory of enterprises is overstocked, and the downstream inquiry list is cold. The procurement is poor, and the market situation of light rare earths is weak. The supply of light rare earths is mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia. Due to the limited transportation in Baotou and other regions, the manufacturer’s shipment is limited, and the production of enterprises is relatively normal, but the transportation is relatively difficult, and the spot supply has decreased.

Recently, the inventory of downstream magnetic material merchants still exists, and some manufacturers mainly digest the inventory. The purchasing mood is not good, resulting in the scarcity of orders, the difficulty of dealers in shipping, and the decline of rare earth market.

According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in China will reach 2.599 million and 2.505 million respectively in October 2022, up 11.1% and 6.9% year on year. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 762000 and 714000 respectively, with year-on-year growth of 87.6% and 81.7%, and the market share reached 28.5%. The production and sales of automobiles rose, the demand in the new energy field was still supported, and the decline in the domestic rare earth market was limited.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioners in the downstream of rare earths are in sustainable development. In the short term, the epidemic situation in some regions is repeated, the downstream procurement is limited, and the orders of magnetic material manufacturers are poor. The downstream businesses mainly digest the inventory. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, expects that the rare earth market is weak and difficult to change. In the long run, the demand for rare earths is still guaranteed, and there is no lack of the possibility of recovery.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market fell from 6833.33 yuan/ton at the weekend to 6500.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 4.88%. On November 13, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 32.99, unchanged from yesterday, 68.75% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and 9.53% higher than the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell slightly this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market of isobutyraldehyde upstream raw material market rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 7000.60 yuan/ton at the weekend to 7330.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 4.71%. The upstream raw material market price rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand, it had a positive impact on the isobutyraldehyde price. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol was adjusted at a low level, with the price of 9666.67 yuan/ton. The market of neopentyl glycol was consolidated at a low level, and the downstream demand was general, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future market forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in the middle and late November may fall slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly, with good cost support. However, the market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream market was consolidated at a low level, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement was general. The isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business community believe that the short-term isobutyraldehyde market may be subject to slight shock and decline under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, since November 6, the hydrogen peroxide market has warmed up and the price has risen. On November 6, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 823 yuan/ton. On November 11, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market was 846 yuan/ton, up 2.83%.

Increase in terminal demand Hydrogen peroxide market rose in a volatile manner

Since November 6, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals has improved, the number of orders has increased, and the market has improved. The prices of some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have risen. The hydrogen peroxide market in Anhui is relatively stable, with the mainstream quotation of 950 yuan/ton. The overall domestic hydrogen peroxide market has improved from the beginning of the month.

Li Bing, an hydrogen peroxide analyst from the business community, believes that the terminal demand will recover and the hydrogen peroxide market will rise in the future.

According to the data of the bulk commodity list of the business community, the formaldehyde market in Shandong was consolidated this week. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1383.33 yuan/ton. The current price fell 3.04% month on month and 16.16% year on year.

formaldehyde

This week, the formaldehyde market price in Shandong was stable. From the above figure, we can see that the recent fluctuation of formaldehyde market is not large, and this week it continues to be weak and consolidated. As of November 9, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1350-1400 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range, with average cost support. Due to the impact of public security incidents, logistics and transportation were not smooth, and the formaldehyde market was rarely traded. Recently, the situation has improved slightly, but the market has not improved significantly.

Upstream methanol: the market in East China rebounded at a low level, and the transaction was fair. Futures stopped falling and rebounded, production facilities of major enterprises in some regions stopped, supply decreased, and market buying improved. The logistics in some regions is limited but the demand is weak, and the downstream receiving price is weak.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has slightly retreated, giving formaldehyde a certain cost support. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative predicted that the formaldehyde price in Shandong would increase mainly due to shocks in the near future.

On November 7, Hong Kong stock fell to 15000 tons, which was the lowest point in the new year. The acetone market rebounded from the bottom, and major mainstream markets rose one after another. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average offer of acetone market in East China on November 7 was 5800 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton or 6.8% compared with the previous trading day; Across the country, acetone was quoted at 5887 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton or 3.2% compared with the previous trading day. On November 7, the offer was around 5800 yuan/ton in the East China market, 5900 yuan/ton in the South China region, and 5900-5950 yuan/ton in the North China and Shandong surrounding regions

Hong Kong stock fell to a new low in the year, and the expected arrivals were insufficient. In November, the supply of imported goods was obviously insufficient. It was reported that only a ship of 1000 tons from South Korea arrived at the port, while the port replenishment in November was mainly concentrated in the first ten days. It was reported that 6000 and 1000 tons were added to West China and Hengyang ports on the 8th, 3000 tons were added to West China ports on the 11th, and 10000 tons were still arriving at West China ports on the way until the 15th. At present, only 5000 tons from Saudi Arabia were added to West China ports at the end of the month.

The domestic operating rate is 70%, which is low compared with 90% of the annual level.

Some factories raised their listing prices to boost the market. Although there are only a small number of enterprises in this increase, it still provides a good support for the market. The mentality of the commodity holders is extremely large. In the case of relatively tight supply, the offer has been greatly raised, and it is difficult to clinch a deal at a low price of the actual order.

The market continued to decline for 15 days, with a large decline and rebounded from the bottom. Since the end of October, with the start of the settlement day, a new round of pricing cycle has been started, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is not high. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the daily price in East China was 6100 yuan/ton on October 20, and the acetone market had dropped to 5430 yuan/ton by November 6. The market continued to fall. The end plants mainly digested the contracts, and the market once entered a half month downturn, However, as the market fell all the way, some intermediate traders had low inventory expectations and market inquiry intentions, and the trading atmosphere was improved.

From the perspective of the business community, on the morning of the 8th, Lihua Yiweiyuan Acetone increased by 200 yuan/ton again, and executed 6100 yuan/ton. However, HKEx is currently at a low level, and there is no inventory pressure on the production enterprises. Today, we focus on the adjustment of major factories. It is expected that the market will continue to rise today. In the short term, acetone will still have a rising trend, and in the long term, we will focus on the production of new devices.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong Province increased from 9000.00 yuan/ton at the weekend to 9533.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 5.93%, and a year-on-year decrease of 27.04%. On November 6, the isooctanol commodity index was 70.10, unchanged from yesterday, down 49.02% from the highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle, and up 99.43% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and increased downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong mainstream isooctanol manufacturers rose slightly this week.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week, with the price dropping from 7340.60 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7000.60 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decline of 4.63%, 12.59% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market price fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand, the price of isooctanol was negatively affected.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP factory price rose slightly this week. The DOP price rose from 10,030.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10,320.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 2.89%, and a year-on-year drop of 17.11%. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly, and downstream customers increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol.

Insufficient upstream support, increased downstream demand, and the future market of isooctanol is bullish

In the middle and late November, Shandong’s isooctanol market may rise slightly. Although the upstream propylene market declined slightly and the cost support was insufficient, the downstream DOP market rose slightly and the downstream demand increased. According to the isooctanol analysts of the business community, the short-term domestic isooctanol market may rise slightly due to the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

Price trend of ethylene oxide in October

According to the data of the business cooperative, the average price of domestic ethylene oxide spot market on November 4 was 6800 yuan/ton, which was the same as the market average price at the beginning of the month (11.1); It was 9.33% lower than the average market price of 7500 yuan/ton on October 1.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

The price of ethylene oxide was dragged down by the downstream and moved down in October.

Fundamentals Overview

1. The domestic production capacity increased slightly. In October, 730,000 tons of new units were put into production in Satellite Petrochemical, and the domestic ethylene oxide production capacity increased to 7.51 million tons.

Later, Sanjiang Chemical, Shenghong Refining and Chemical, Hainan Refining and Chemical and other units are planned to be put into production. Among them, the 500000 t/a ethylene oxide unit of Sanjiang Chemical, which was originally planned to be put into operation in October 2022, will be put into operation in 2023, and the 100000 t/a ethylene oxide unit of Shenghong Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. and the 300000 t/a ethylene oxide unit of Hainan Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. are expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter.

2. The downstream demand is poor. The demand for polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer in the main downstream is expected to weaken greatly due to insufficient terminal building construction conditions. At present, the inventory of polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer enterprises has accumulated to a medium high level, the enthusiasm of enterprises for production has decreased, and the purchasing atmosphere for ethylene oxide is weak.

Future market forecast

The terminal demand is weak and the demand is restrained. Ethylene oxide mainly operates weakly in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 3, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 7533 yuan/ton, which was 533 yuan/ton higher than that on October 30 before the festival (the reference average price of n-butanol was 7000 yuan/ton), or 7.62% higher.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (10.31-11.03), the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province saw a rebound in the rising market, which has risen by more than 7% this week. The main factors supporting the rising market of n-butanol are from the following two aspects:

First, on the supply side, in the near future, due to the impact of special periods, the logistics and transportation in some areas of Shandong Province are limited, and the delivery to some n-butanol manufacturers is limited. In addition, the previous shutdown and maintenance of the factory currently occupy the space and restart, the spot supply inventory in the n-butanol plant is not high, and the overall supply pressure is small. The supply side gave support to the n-butanol market.

Second, on the demand side, at the end of October (October 30), the market price of n-butanol had fallen to a lower level, and the buying atmosphere in the downstream market had warmed up. In this week, the supply side of n-butanol had decreased. Under the condition that the downstream construction was stable, the on-site trading atmosphere had improved, the purchasing mentality was good, the goods were actively prepared, and the demand was ushering in a phased increase. The demand side also gives high support to n-butanol.

As of November 3, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China was around 7500-7700 yuan/ton, and the price increase this week was around 300-600 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream propylene, in November, the domestic propylene market as a whole continued the downward trend at the end of October. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene was 7004.60 yuan/ton on November 2, a decrease of 0.45% compared with November 1 (7036.60 yuan/ton).

Post market analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market is good, the sales pressure of n-butanol is not big, and the mentality of the industry is strong. In terms of cost, the downward trend of propylene price is difficult to provide effective support for n-butanol. The n-butanol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the situation of the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province is mainly rising slightly, and the momentum for continuous growth is limited. More attention should be paid to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.