Price trend of ethylene oxide in October

According to the data of the business cooperative, the average price of domestic ethylene oxide spot market on November 4 was 6800 yuan/ton, which was the same as the market average price at the beginning of the month (11.1); It was 9.33% lower than the average market price of 7500 yuan/ton on October 1.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

The price of ethylene oxide was dragged down by the downstream and moved down in October.

Fundamentals Overview

1. The domestic production capacity increased slightly. In October, 730,000 tons of new units were put into production in Satellite Petrochemical, and the domestic ethylene oxide production capacity increased to 7.51 million tons.

Later, Sanjiang Chemical, Shenghong Refining and Chemical, Hainan Refining and Chemical and other units are planned to be put into production. Among them, the 500000 t/a ethylene oxide unit of Sanjiang Chemical, which was originally planned to be put into operation in October 2022, will be put into operation in 2023, and the 100000 t/a ethylene oxide unit of Shenghong Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. and the 300000 t/a ethylene oxide unit of Hainan Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. are expected to be put into operation in the fourth quarter.

2. The downstream demand is poor. The demand for polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer in the main downstream is expected to weaken greatly due to insufficient terminal building construction conditions. At present, the inventory of polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer enterprises has accumulated to a medium high level, the enthusiasm of enterprises for production has decreased, and the purchasing atmosphere for ethylene oxide is weak.

Future market forecast

The terminal demand is weak and the demand is restrained. Ethylene oxide mainly operates weakly in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 3, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 7533 yuan/ton, which was 533 yuan/ton higher than that on October 30 before the festival (the reference average price of n-butanol was 7000 yuan/ton), or 7.62% higher.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (10.31-11.03), the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province saw a rebound in the rising market, which has risen by more than 7% this week. The main factors supporting the rising market of n-butanol are from the following two aspects:

First, on the supply side, in the near future, due to the impact of special periods, the logistics and transportation in some areas of Shandong Province are limited, and the delivery to some n-butanol manufacturers is limited. In addition, the previous shutdown and maintenance of the factory currently occupy the space and restart, the spot supply inventory in the n-butanol plant is not high, and the overall supply pressure is small. The supply side gave support to the n-butanol market.

Second, on the demand side, at the end of October (October 30), the market price of n-butanol had fallen to a lower level, and the buying atmosphere in the downstream market had warmed up. In this week, the supply side of n-butanol had decreased. Under the condition that the downstream construction was stable, the on-site trading atmosphere had improved, the purchasing mentality was good, the goods were actively prepared, and the demand was ushering in a phased increase. The demand side also gives high support to n-butanol.

As of November 3, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China was around 7500-7700 yuan/ton, and the price increase this week was around 300-600 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream propylene, in November, the domestic propylene market as a whole continued the downward trend at the end of October. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene was 7004.60 yuan/ton on November 2, a decrease of 0.45% compared with November 1 (7036.60 yuan/ton).

Post market analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the market is good, the sales pressure of n-butanol is not big, and the mentality of the industry is strong. In terms of cost, the downward trend of propylene price is difficult to provide effective support for n-butanol. The n-butanol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the situation of the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province is mainly rising slightly, and the momentum for continuous growth is limited. More attention should be paid to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride fell slightly this month, and the price of potassium chloride fell from 4066.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3900.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 4.10%. On October 30, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 102.63, unchanged from yesterday, 29.09% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 144.74 (2022-06-21), and 6.12% higher than the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of domestic mainstream potassium chloride dealers fell slightly this month: the arrival price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake at the end of the month was about 3660-3880 yuan/ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the price was temporarily stable, mainly based on contracts. At the end of this month, Xiangyang Youdeshi’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 3800 yuan/ton, a drop of 200 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month. At the end of this month, Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 4200 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the month. At the end of this month, Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 3700 yuan/ton, a drop of 300 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of this month. At the end of the month, 62% of the white potassium in the port was about 3600-3700 yuan/ton, 60% of the red granules in the port was about 3600-3700 yuan/ton, and 62% of the Russian white potassium in the border trade was about 3500-3600 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate fell slightly this month, from 9375.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9250.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 1.33%, up 15.99% year-on-year. The factory price of potassium nitrate fell slightly this month, from 6425.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6162.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a 4.09% drop, 8.59% higher than the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, and the downstream demand for potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Future market forecast

The market trend of potassium chloride in the first half of November may slightly fluctuate and fall, mainly finishing. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangger is stable, mainly based on contracts. The price of imported potassium chloride fell slightly. The downstream agricultural demand is weakened, the industrial demand is general, and the rigid demand procurement is dominant. In the future, the price of potassium chloride may fall in shock.

1、 Trend analysis

On the 1st, the nickel price rose significantly. According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the average price of nickel in the spot market was 194716.67 yuan/ton, up 4.56% from the previous trading day and 33.6% year on year; Nickel futures note rose 3.94% on the day.

Typhoon Landed Philippines Nickel Mine and Its Transportation Was Blocked

Typhoon “Nig” has landed in the Philippines and is gradually close to the coast of South China. Affected by the typhoon, the transportation of nickel ore is blocked. The price of nickel ore is still strong and the cost support is strong. In addition, with the arrival of the rainy season in the Philippines, shipments began to decrease, mine bidding prices soared, and supply side disturbances drove up mine prices.

LME may restrict the Russian nickel transaction

It is rumored that the London Metal Exchange (LME) in September issued a discussion on metal processing in Russia, which ended on October 28. Most market participants expect that the decision to restrict Russian nickel trading will be announced soon. The possibility of supply interruption of Russian Nickel as the main deliverable in LME nickel market has sharply increased the market sentiment.

The typhoon rainy season superimposed Russian nickel trade or limited rumors, and the new energy industry has a strong momentum of development. The demand for nickel for power batteries is growing, the price of battery grade nickel sulfate is rising, and the explicit inventory of pure nickel still remains destocking, leading to a sharp rise in nickel prices. However, the seasonal demand of “Gold Nine Silver Ten” faded, the demand growth slowed down, and the nickel fundamentals were weak. In addition, the factors that Russian nickel or a large number of domestic nickel and nickel beans joined the delivery in the previous period in the later period limited the space for nickel price to rise.

Downstream stainless steel price drop

In the first half of October, the price of stainless steel kept rising, which drove large steel mills to step up procurement. However, since the last ten days, the price of stainless steel has fallen back, and the recovery of terminal consumption has slowed down. The downward transmission of demand is limited. At present, the downstream are mostly wait-and-see.

According to the annual nickel price comparison chart of the business community in recent three years, the price in November is still stronger than that in October. The supply side is tight, but the demand for “Gold Nine Silver Ten” has subsided. In the case of weak supply and demand, nickel price is easily affected by macro factors, and the price fluctuates greatly. It is expected that the nickel price will continue to fluctuate in a wide range in the short term, and there is no condition for unilateral rise temporarily.

Commodity index: According to the monitoring of the business community, the natural rubber commodity index on October 31 was 33.12, down 0.92 points from yesterday, down 66.88% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01) in the cycle, and up 21.41% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: Trend of mainstream prices of natural rubber in October 2022

Commodity market: According to the monitoring of the business agency, the main spot market of natural rubber (Baodao full milk) in East China was about 12310 yuan/ton on October 1, and about 11170 yuan/ton on October 31, with a monthly drop of 9.26%. This price is not only the lowest since the same period in October 2021, but also the lowest since the same period in 2020. The market is very poor.

Figure 3: Weekly K Histogram of Natural Rubber Market in 2022

Industry: The monitoring of the business community shows that the current market atmosphere is empty, and the situation of oversupply is prominent. Supply: The global supply is stable, the current rubber production is still in the peak season, and the spot inventory continues to be high. Demand: The foreign demand continues to be sluggish, the tire enterprises’ orders are limited, the operating rate is low, the tire inventory is high, the supply pressure is high, and the demand for natural rubber procurement continues to be weak. Import: Statistics show that the export volume of natural rubber from Thailand, the main producer, in the first three quarters of the year increased by about 1% to 870000 tons. The export volume of Vietnam in the first three quarters is expected to increase by about 50% year on year. As the largest consumer of natural rubber, China’s import volume from the two countries in the first three quarters of the year is expected to increase by about 14% compared with last year. Exports: customs data show that China’s tire exports fell in September on a month on month basis, and the year-on-year growth rate of export value also fell significantly. Inventory: By the end of last week, the number of arrivals had increased, and domestic port inventory and social inventory had rebounded slightly. In terms of replacement rubber, the price of mixed rubber has continued to decline recently, and the price difference between all latex and mixed rubber has continued to widen.

Recent hot spots:

1. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers disclosed that from January to September 2022, the industrial added value of China’s automobile manufacturing industry increased by 6.9% year on year, 2.4 percentage points higher than that from January to August, and 3.7 percentage points higher than that of the manufacturing industry in the same period.

2. On October 25, the European Tyre and Rubber Manufacturers Association (ETRMA) released market data showing that in the third quarter of 2022, the sales volume of replacement tyres in Europe fell by 9% year-on-year to 63.53 million.

3. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in September 2022, China’s output of rubber tire casings was 754.54 million, an increase of 9.2% year on year. From January to September, the output of rubber tire casing decreased by 4.1% over the same period of last year to 63931.7 million.

4. On October 24, the General Administration of Customs released tire export data for September 2022 and the first three quarters. Among them, in September, China’s rubber tire exports totaled 600000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 70000 tons, or 1.8%; The export amount was RMB 10.601 billion, up 9.1% year on year, down 5.8 percentage points.

5. According to the data of the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), the sales volume of passenger cars in the European Union increased by 9.6% to 787870 in September, two consecutive months and 4.4% in August. However, this growth is mainly due to the low comparison base in September 2021, when the shortage of semiconductors hindered automobile production; In the first three quarters of 2022, the European passenger car market shrank by 9.9% to 6.78 million vehicles.

6. In September 2022, China’s heavy truck market will sell about 52000 vehicles (invoicing caliber), up 13% month on month and 12% lower than 59200 vehicles in the same period last year. 52,000 units are the lowest sales volume in September since 2016, and September this year is also the 17th consecutive month of decline in the heavy truck market since May last year. Downstream demand is sluggish and inventory is high, and heavy truck sales are less than expected..

Figure 4: Comparison Chart of Annual Spot Market Trend of Natural Rubber from 2020 to 2022

As can be seen from the above figure, the natural rubber market continued to fall in October 2022, much worse than that in the same period of 2020 and 2021.

Future forecast: China’s tire export was under pressure in the third quarter, and continued to fall back in September. At present, the market pessimism is spreading. Many exporters report poor sales in foreign markets, economic recession expectations, weak overseas demand, and the impact of multiple public health events on the industry continues to be negative. The supply is strong, the downstream demand of natural rubber continues to be weak, the market is pessimistic, and the export situation is poor. Excluding the factors of technical rebound, it is expected that the weakness of natural rubber in the future market will continue in the short term.

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, as of October 28, 2022, the domestic market price of diethylene glycol was 5600 yuan/ton. Compared with October 1, 2022 (the reference price of diethylene glycol was 5193 yuan/ton), the price increased by 307 yuan/ton, or 7.83%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring of the business community that the diethylene glycol market has been rising as a whole since October (10.1-10.28). In early October, after the National Day holiday, the diethylene glycol market ushered in a broad upward trend. There are two main factors supporting the rise of the market focus of diethylene glycol. In terms of cost, the high rise of raw material ethylene glycol after the festival gives diethylene glycol cost support. In terms of supply, the low volume of goods in the diethylene glycol warehouse area after the festival gave support to the diethylene glycol market due to the tight supply side. As of October 19, the market price of diethylene glycol was around 5550-5650 yuan/ton.

In the middle and late October, the downstream’s acceptance of high prices decreased, and the diethylene glycol market fell slightly, but the fundamentals were good and continued to support the market. From the 24th, the diethylene glycol market was strong and rising again. The diethylene glycol market price was around 5600-5800 yuan/ton. However, near the end of the month, the diethylene glycol market price fell slightly due to the decline of crude oil and the reduction of shipments.

As of October 28, the market price of diethylene glycol was around 5500-5700 yuan/ton, exceeding 7% in October. At present, the trading atmosphere in the diethylene glycol field is general, and the actual orders are mainly negotiated according to the quantity.

At present, the trading and investment atmosphere in the diethylene glycol market is slightly weak, and the supply and demand transmission is general. The diethylene glycol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the diethylene glycol market will mostly adjust its operation in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1440 yuan/ton on October 1, and 1510 yuan/ton on October 27. The price of ammonium sulfate rose 4.86% this month.

2、 Market analysis

According to the weekly rise and fall chart from August 1, 2022 to October 23, 2022, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate has increased a lot in the cycle. The maximum increase was 9.96% in the week of August 29, and the maximum decrease was -5.61% in the week of August 1. Since October, it has risen slightly, with the largest increase of 1.85% in the week of October 3.

Ammonium sulfate prices rose sharply this month. Ammonium sulfate market fluctuated slightly, with fair trading atmosphere and increased inquiries. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the high price is still a wait-and-see attitude. Due to the stable terminal demand, the manufacturer’s price is mainly high. Due to the epidemic situation and environmental protection, the operating rate of coke plants decreased, and the supply of ammonium sulfate decreased. At present, the market is not very volatile, and the industry is mainly cautious. As of October 27, the main factory quotation of coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong was about 1490 yuan/ton, and that in Hebei was about 1450 yuan/ton. Domestic ammonium sulfate, the factory quotation in Shandong is 1450-1590 yuan/ton.

The downstream compound fertilizer market demand was flat this month, with weak stable operation as the main factor. The wait-and-see mood was strong, waiting for the introduction of the winter reserve policy. The construction of compound fertilizer plants declined, and the demand for raw materials weakened. The urea cost is well supported, and the agricultural demand is small. The production of urea in Shanxi is limited to 150000 tons per day. In the future, urea rose slightly in shock, which was beneficial to the ammonium sulfate market.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the ammonium sulfate analyst of the business agency, the demand for ammonium sulfate has been flat in recent days, and the transactions on the market are average. The downstream still resists the high price of ammonium sulfate, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. The supply of ammonium sulfate in the plant is reduced due to the reduction of the operating rate of the manufacturer. It is expected that in the short term, the ammonium sulfate market will continue to operate mainly in shock and consolidation, and the price will fluctuate in a narrow range.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 26, 2022, the reference price of the domestic silicone DMC market was 17640 yuan/ton. Compared with the price on October 1, 2022 (the reference price of the silicone DMC was 18200 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 560 yuan/ton, or 3.08%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since October (10.1-10.26), the overall domestic silicone DMC market has shown a weak downward trend, and the market focus has been gradually explored in the sorting process. The main factors influencing the decline of silicone DMC market are as follows:

1、 On the demand side, after the National Day holiday, the silicone DMC market started steadily. However, after the festival, the demand side was cautious, the downstream had a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the market mentality was general. The overall stock removal after the festival was less than expected. In the middle of October, with insufficient demand support, some manufacturers began to reduce the price of organic silicon DMC, with a reduction rate of 200-500 yuan/ton.

2、 In terms of cost, after the National Day holiday, although the metal silicon market was operating at a high level, due to the general impact of trading orders, most monomer plants still actively took orders by exchanging price for quantity. Therefore, the overall support of cost was general.

3、 In terms of supply, in October, the overall inventory of silicone DMC was under pressure, the shipment was slow, the downstream replenishment was rigorous, and the contradiction between supply and demand was prominent.

Near the end of the month, the overall market situation of silicone DMC has a slight recovery trend. Since October 24, Shandong Dachang has raised the ex factory price of silicone DMC twice, with a cumulative increase of 300 yuan/ton. In the past two days, the market order taking phenomenon has improved. In addition, the monomer factory is actively adjusting the operating rate and moderately reducing the supply pressure. As of October 26, the domestic market price of silicone DMC has referred to 17600-18000 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, since October (10.1-10.25), the domestic metal silicon (product name: 441 #) market has been running steadily and upward. On October 25, the reference price of metal silicon was 21690 yuan/ton, up 2.02% compared with October 1 (21260 yuan/ton).

Prediction of the future trend of silicone DMC market

At present, the trading and investment atmosphere in the silicone DMC market is moderate. Towards the end of the month, Shandong’s big factories have continuously raised the price of silicone DMC to give the industry some confidence. The silicone DMC data analyst of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market will mainly operate stably and in a consolidated way, and more attention should be paid to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

The market of plasticizer rose sharply and fell sharply

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the plasticizer market will rise and fall sharply in 2022, with the highest prices of DOP and DOTP being 13400 yuan/ton and 13550 yuan/ton respectively, the lowest prices of DOP and DOTP being 8775 yuan/ton and 8975 yuan/ton respectively, and the price difference being 4625 yuan/ton and 4575 yuan/ton respectively; The corresponding maximum price of DBP is 12333.33 yuan/ton, the minimum price is 8600 yuan/ton, and the price difference is 3733.33 yuan/ton. The price difference between the highest and lowest prices of DBP is significantly lower than that of DOP and DOTP. The overall plasticizer market is choppy and the trend of DBP is relatively stable.

DBP capacity and operating rate

DBP capacity expanded to reach the peak of 1.05 million tons/year in 2015, and then the capacity contracted, and some units were in a long-term shutdown or unstable production state; By 2021, the DBP capacity will shrink to 850000 tons (including some long-term shutdown devices); In recent years, some small DBP enterprises have begun to withdraw from the market, and the capacity of DBP plants has shown signs of shrinking. However, due to the expansion of major large plants, the capacity of DBP plants is relatively stable. The overcapacity of plasticizer market will be particularly prominent in 2022, and the operating rate of DOP and DOTP enterprises will drop from about 60% in previous years to less than 50% in 2022; However, the situation of DBP overcapacity is relatively stable. The operating rate of DBP enterprises is maintained at about 30% to 40% all the year round. With its unique performance and specific downstream, the market is relatively stable for the time being. The capacity and operating rate of DBP in 2022 will not change much compared with previous years.

Future market expectation

Analysts of DBP data from Business Press believed that DBP could not completely exit the plasticizer industry in a short time. First of all, it has experienced time and quality inspection in the application of plastic processing fields such as film, leather products, wire and cable, footwear and other terminal products; Second, there is a certain gap between the application performance of some environment-friendly plasticizers and DBP in aging resistance, flexibility, etc. The decline in the proportion of DBP plasticizers will be the trend of the times, and the elimination or conversion of backward DBP production capacity will also be the mainstream of future enterprises. As the downstream demand, capacity and operating rate of DBP have been relatively stable in recent years, the future price trend of plasticizer DBP mainly depends on the price trend of raw materials phthalic anhydride and n-butanol. Recently, the prices of phthalic anhydride and n-butanol have fallen, and it is expected that the future DBP prices will fall in shock.

According to the data of the business community, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil as of October 23 was 6630.00 yuan/ton (tax included), which was stable compared with the price of 6610.00 yuan/ton on October 17.

On October 23, the fuel oil commodity index was 134.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 1.05% from the peak of 135.70 (2022-06-21) in the cycle, and up 191.41% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The international crude oil price fluctuated downward, and the cost support of the ship fuel market was limited. According to the business community, as of October 23, the self raised low sulfur price of 180cst fuel oil in the Zhoushan area was 6600 yuan/ton, and the self raised low sulfur price of 120cst fuel oil was 6700 yuan/ton; The price of 180cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil in CNGC Shanghai is 6650 yuan/ton, and the price of 120cst self raised low sulfur of fuel oil is 6750 yuan/ton.

International crude oil prices fell in shock. Since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) agreed to cut their production target by 2 million barrels per day during the National Day holiday, the expectation of tight crude oil supply has led to a rise in oil prices. However, the release of reserves in the United States followed. In addition, against the background of high global inflation, the market strengthened the expectation of the central bank to significantly increase interest rates. The expectation of economic recession risk weakened the demand for fuel. In the short term, it offset the positive impact of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies (OPEC+) to significantly reduce production, and the price of crude oil fell accordingly.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory increased, providing limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG): As of the week ended October 19, Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory fell 1.393 million barrels to 15.184 million barrels, a three-month low. Singapore’s medium distillate oil inventory decreased by 1.176 million barrels to 6.963 million barrels, the lowest level in four months. Singapore’s fuel oil inventory rose 839000 barrels to a two-week high of 21.04 million barrels.

Future forecast: the international crude oil market has been in shock recently, and the domestic raw material price is strong at present; Affected by the domestic epidemic situation, port refueling is currently limited, and the transaction is mainly just in demand. In the near future, the ship fuel market is mainly stable. At present, the 180CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6700 yuan/ton, and the 120CST low sulfur market price of fuel oil is about 6800 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be dominated in the near future.