1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 16, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 18166.67 yuan/ton, 0.93% higher than the price of 18000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 21.01% lower than the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 16, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25666.67 yuan/ton, 0.65% higher than the price of 25500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 10.98% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Refrigerant R22 fundamentals ran slightly stronger overall this week, and the prices quoted by enterprises rose slightly. The price of raw material trichloromethane continued to rise in the month, hydrofluoric acid was weak and stable as a whole, and the cost of raw materials rose slightly. Supported by the cost, the price of R22 rose slightly.

Since September, the price of hydrofluoric acid has remained weak and stable as a whole, the price of trichloroethylene has remained strong, and the cost of raw materials has continued to rise. Supported by the cost and demand, the price of domestic refrigerant R134a has continued to rise.

In terms of raw materials, the overall domestic hydrofluoric acid price remained relatively low in September, which will suppress the domestic R134a price in the future.

3、 Future market forecast

Refrigerant analysts from the business community believe that the cost of raw materials continues to rise, the manufacturer’s inventory is relatively low, and it is expected that domestic R22 and R134a prices will continue to run strongly in the short term, supported by costs and demand.

After returning from the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the domestic DME market price returned to the rising trend, and the Henan market price increased significantly. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4115.00 yuan/ton on September 12 and 4160 yuan/ton on September 15, with a rise of 1.09% during the period and a drop of 3.95% compared with the same period last year.

As of September 15, the market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, mainstream quotation

Jiangxi, 4300 yuan/ton

Hebei, 4560 yuan/ton

Henan Province, 4050-4160 yuan/ton

After the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, the domestic dimethyl ether market generally rose. There are obvious positive factors in the market. In terms of cost, the rise of the raw material methanol market has provided some support. Although the civil market of liquefied gas related products has insufficient momentum to continue to rise, the overall price is firm. The supply in Shandong and Hebei is low, which is good for the market mentality. The downstream will focus on replenishment after the festival. The enthusiasm for entering the market is good. The manufacturer’s shipment is mild, the mentality is strong, and the price has been adjusted continuously.

On September 15, the methanol market in Northeast China rose partially, and the shipments of some mainstream enterprises in Heilongjiang Province were about 2700 yuan/ton; The main traders delivered Liaoning Panjin at about 2900-2920 yuan/ton. The prices of enterprises in southern Shandong are concentrated around 2850 yuan/ton, while the local prices in Linyi are around 2870-2910 yuan/ton.

At present, the raw material methanol market is mainly adjusted, which brings some support in terms of cost. The supply in Shandong and Hebei markets is low, which is good for the market mentality. In addition, there is a demand for replenishment in the downstream after the festival. The enthusiasm for entering the market is good. The mentality of the manufacturers is relatively strong, and the price is higher. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market is still dominated by gains.

On the second day after the festival, the domestic MIBK market rose slightly. The overall negotiation range was 9550-9700 yuan/ton, which was 50-100 yuan/ton higher than the previous long-term stalemate.

First of all, the cost support is strong. With the increase of acetone at the raw material end, the pressure from the cost side increases. The acetone negotiation in East China is 5150 yuan/ton, and that in South China is 5300 yuan/ton. In the afternoon, it was mainly affected by the typhoon, and the short futures of interval transportation were restricted. The price holding sentiment of the holders increased, and the offer rose, which was strongly supported by the cost.

At present, the operating rate of MIBK industry is around 80%, and the supply side is generally stable. It is estimated that there may be a shutdown maintenance plan in the later period, and the details are being followed up.

The business agency expects that the domestic MIBK market will be stable or increase, but the increase is limited by the demand side release. It is expected that the market in East China will negotiate 9600-9700 yuan/ton in the near future.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell slightly this week, with the price dropping 1.08% from 4633.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 4583.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week. The factory price of potassium chloride in China is temporarily stable this week. This week, the factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is 4480 yuan/ton. On September 12, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 120.61, unchanged from yesterday, 16.67% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 144.74 (2022-06-21), and 24.71% higher than the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of domestic mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers fell slightly this week: the ex factory price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake at the weekend was about 4480 yuan/ton. Xiangyang youdeshi’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 4400 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 4850 yuan/ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 4500 yuan/ton this weekend, a drop of 150 yuan/ton compared with last weekend. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is about 4000-4200 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is about 4100-4300 yuan/ton. 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade is about 4000 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate was adjusted at a low level this week, with the price of 9475.00 yuan/ton, up 16.74% year on year. This week, the factory price of potassium nitrate was adjusted at a low level, with a price of 6800.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 24.39% over the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride has consolidated at a low level, and the demand of downstream customers for potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of September, the overall trend of potassium chloride market was dominated by narrow fluctuation and decline. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has been consolidated at a high level, the downstream market of potassium chloride has declined slightly, the downstream demand has weakened, and the purchase is just needed. International potash fertilizer prices fell slightly. Potassium chloride analysts from the business community believe that the domestic potassium chloride import price may fall slightly in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of September 6, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of silicone DMC market quotation in the mainstream regions of China is referenced at 19320 yuan / ton, which is 320 yuan / ton lower than the price on September 1, 2022 (reference price of 19640 yuan / ton), a decrease of 1.63%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that in the first ten days of August, with the support of the high raw material market, the focus of the silicone DMC market was also moving upward. However, with the fall of the raw material market in the second ten days, the cost support became weaker, and the silicone DMC market was also weak. In September, the appearance of traditional Jinjiu in the silicone DMC market was not obvious. In the first two days of the month, the silicone DMC market was still dominated by the continuation of the decline at the end of August. Some suppliers with higher prices in the previous period continued to adjust the silicone DMC price downward, and the gap between the high and low prices in the silicone DMC market narrowed. Then the market was weak and consolidated, and there was no obvious rise and fall. It can be said that the adjustment of the rise and fall in the market was more cautious. Until September 5, Shandong large factories slightly increased the ex factory price of silicone DMC, with a cumulative increase of around 200 yuan / ton in the past two days. Other monomer factories and suppliers mostly kept stable quotations. At present, as of September 6, the domestic silicone DMC market price is around 18900-19800 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, since September (9.1-9.5), the domestic metal silicon (Product Name: 441 #) market has shown an overall upward trend. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, on September 5, the reference price of metallic silicon was 19760 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.02% compared with September 1 (19560.00 yuan / ton).

Silicone DMC market forecast

In recent days, the market of raw metal silicon has recovered, which has led to a slight rise in the market of silicone DMC. The overall trend of the silicone DMC market is relatively conservative, and the rhythm of downstream stock preparation before the festival is slowly opened. The silicone DMC data analyst of business club believes that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market will mainly operate in a stable and small dynamic range, and the specific trend needs to pay attention to the news changes on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of neopentyl glycol in the mainstream domestic market fell from 10000.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 9966.67 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.33%. On September 4, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 48.03, which was the same as yesterday, down 53.64% from the highest point 103.61 in the cycle (September 22, 2021), and up 3.09% from the lowest point 46.59 on August 20, 2022. (Note: period refers to September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of the mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol fell: the weekend sales price of Jinan aochen Wanhua neopentyl glycol was 9900 yuan / ton, which decreased by 1000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The weekend sales price of Zibo deshengfeng neopentyl glycol is 10200 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend. The weekend sales price of kemico Shandong neopentyl glycol is 9800 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market rose from 7166.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7733.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 7.91%. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost was well supported. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of September, the market trend of neopentyl glycol mainly rose slightly. The market price of isobutyraldehyde in the upstream rose slightly, and the cost support was good. The market price of coatings in the downstream was general, and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement was weakened. Analysts of neopentyl glycol of business club believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the market price of neopentyl glycol in the short term may rise slightly.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of September 2, 2022, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol was 8533 yuan / ton, which was 200 yuan / ton lower than that on August 29 (8733 yuan / ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business association that this week (8.29-9.2), the domestic n-propanol market was in a downward trend. At the beginning of the week, there was little change in the market of zhengpropanol, and the news was relatively calm. Since the middle of the week, the market of n-propanol in Shandong has been in a downward trend. Large factories in Shandong have reduced the ex factory price of n-propanol, which has driven the market of n-propanol downward as a whole, with a reduction range of around 100-300 yuan / ton. As of September 2 this weekend, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 8000-8200 yuan / ton, and the high-end price is around 8500 yuan / ton. At present, the trading atmosphere of zhengpropanol in the market is OK, and the downstream continues to be dominated by just needed purchases. Dealers around the world still have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has its own differences. Actual single negotiation is the main way, and we will wait and see the price change and shipment of raw materials in the future market.

Prediction of the future market trend of n-propanol

N-propanol is mainly used as a solvent, and also used in pharmaceuticals, paints and cosmetics. It has low toxicity. At present, the domestic downstream demand side of n-propanol is relatively stable, and the supply and demand side is quite normal. The business community’s n-propanol statistician believes that in the short term, how stable and dynamic China’s domestic n-propanol market will be? More attention should be paid to the news changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the data monitoring of business association, the dichloromethane market fluctuated and rose slightly in August. As of August 31, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2900 yuan / ton, up 2.20% from 2837 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point in the month was 3177 yuan / ton. Since the beginning of the year, dichloromethane has been declining all the way. After falling to the lowest point of the year in July, manufacturers supported by costs have a strong willingness to support prices, and the price of dichloromethane rose in the first and middle of August; However, restricted by the supply and demand side, the increase was limited, and the price of dichloromethane fell slightly in the middle and late August.

In August, the start-up of domestic methane chloride plants did not change much, and the overall supply was loose.

In August, the market of raw material methanol fell first and then rose. The spot price fluctuated and consolidated in the range of 150 yuan / ton, which has a certain support for dichloromethane. According to the business agency, as of August 31, the price of methanol was 2540 yuan / ton, down 0.59% from 2555 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The low point in the month was 2412 yuan / ton and the high point was 2568 yuan / ton. In August, the high-temperature weather was the peak of electricity consumption, and the coal supply was relatively tight. In addition, the methanol supply for the maintenance of the methanol unit in the early stage was too tight. The cost of methanol was supported by the supply side, and the price was adjusted in a narrow range at a high level. It can be seen from the “methanol dichloromethane price trend comparison” chart that the current methanol cost continued to support dichloromethane.

In August, the high-temperature weather had a certain after-sales demand support for refrigerant R32. The start-up of pharmaceutical, detergent and other industries was stable but weak, and the demand for dichloromethane had a certain support.

Future forecast: the analysts of methane chloride data of business club believe that the supply side is under pressure at present, and there is no obvious bright spot in demand. It is expected that dichloromethane will continue to shake and consolidate in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate was 4650 yuan / ton on August 1, and the average market price of powdered monoammonium phosphate was 3400 yuan / ton on August 31. The market price of monoammonium phosphate fell by 26.88% this month.

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 4425 yuan / ton on August 1, and the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 4350 yuan / ton on August 31. The market price of diammonium phosphate fell by 1.69% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price trend of monoammonium phosphate declined this month. The price of raw sulfur has stopped falling and rebounded, but the market is still unstable, and the market is still in a wait-and-see mood. The high level of raw phosphate rock fell slightly. Most of the ammonium phosphate manufacturers suspended their quotations, the traders’ quotations were chaotic, and the ammonium phosphate market was quiet. In late August, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises picked up, and the raw material monoammonium was still mainly purchased on demand. As of August 31, the ex factory price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei is 2800-3000 yuan / ton, and the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 3000-3500 yuan / ton. The actual transaction can be negotiated.

The market price of diammonium phosphate fell this month. The domestic demand for diammonium is relatively small in the off-season, and the export market is not good. It is waiting for the release of market demand in autumn. A small amount of downstream procurement. Most of the manufacturers of ammonium phosphate still suspended their quotations, and the dealers’ quotations were chaotic, and most of them were sold at reduced prices. As of August 31, the market price of 64% of diammonium in Guizhou was 4150-4350 yuan / ton, and the market price of 64% of diammonium in Yunnan was 4200-4600 yuan / ton. The actual transaction was negotiated.

The raw material is phosphorus ore. In the middle and early ten days of August, the domestic medium and high-grade phosphate ore market continued to be consolidated and operated at a high level. The on-site supply was still tight, and the downstream demand was mainly based on demand. Near the end of the month, after the downstream phosphate fertilizer market turned cold, the terminal demand support of the phosphate ore market was loosened, and the market price in the field was weaker than that in the previous period. On August 22, some mining enterprises with higher prices in the previous period slightly reduced the price of 30% phosphate rock by 50-80 yuan / ton, and the difference between high and low prices in the field was narrowed. As of August 31, the market price of 30% phosphate ore in China was near 1068 yuan / ton, The specific price is also related to factors such as powder to block ratio. The specific price is discussed on a single basis. The market price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 850-980 yuan / ton. The specific price is discussed on a single basis. At present, the market of phosphate rock quarry is light, and the downstream purchase is moderate, and the transaction is generally general.

Raw material sulfur. Sulfur prices in East China rose slightly this month. The sulfur market is waiting to be sorted out and put into operation. The port cargo carriers are bullish and reluctant to sell. Due to the weak downstream market, the demand for sulfur in the domestic market is weak. The operators in the field have different attitudes. Most of the sulfur is mainly stable. Some manufacturers increase their prices according to their own shipping conditions. The overall downstream demand is general. The market purchase just needs to be followed up. The mood of waiting and waiting in the field is strong. As of the 30th, the price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong Province was between 1190-1290 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur was between 990-1150 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium phosphate analyst of the business community believes that the current market trend of ammonium phosphate raw materials is weak and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream demand side has not been improved yet, waiting for the release of fertilizer in autumn. The quotation of traders is disorderly, and a single negotiation is the main one. The market performance of ammonium phosphate is still flat, and it is expected that the price trend of ammonium phosphate will remain weak in the short term.

It can be seen from the above figure that the mainstream market price of domestic urea in this month generally fell first and then rose: the price of urea first fell from 2438.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2312.00 yuan / ton on August 10, down 5.17%, and then rose to 2400.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 3.81%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease was 2.04%.

On August 30, the urea commodity index was 111.63, which was the same as yesterday, down 26.72% from the highest point 152.33 in the cycle (May 15, 2022), and up 100.77% from the lowest point 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

In August, the urea price fluctuated and fell, with the highest drop of 1.01% in a single week. According to the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream market price of urea in China has risen and fallen this month.

Insufficient upstream support and general downstream demand

From the data of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream products of urea in this month as a whole have seen a slight drop: the price of liquefied natural gas has dropped slightly, from 6520.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 5752.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 11.78%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.67% compared with the same period of last year. The price of liquid ammonia was adjusted at a low level. The price fluctuated in a narrow range of 3780 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 1.73% over the same period of last year. In this month, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose sharply, from 7233.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8466.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 17.05%.

From the demand side, the agricultural demand is weakened and the industrial demand is insufficient. The agricultural demand in some areas has been eliminated. The operating load of compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants is low, the industrial demand is insufficient, the price of melamine rises sharply, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is enhanced. In terms of supply, some areas in the South have limited power and stopped production, and the daily output of urea has dropped to about 140000 tons.

Urea may rebound at the bottom in the future

The urea market may rebound at the bottom in the middle and early September. Although the prices of anthracite and natural gas in the upstream have dropped slightly, the cost support is insufficient. However, in September, the production of compound fertilizer manufacturers is expected to gradually increase, the industrial demand increases, and the agricultural demand follows up as needed. Urea may rebound at the bottom in the future.