Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the copper price in August surged. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 61571.67 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the copper price rose to 63808.33 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 3.63% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.75%.

According to the current chart of the business community, in August, the spot price of copper was basically higher than the futures price. The main contract was the expected price in two months. The main basis became larger, which was bad for buying hedging.

According to the LME inventory, the LME copper inventory in August was lower than that in July, and fell to the same level in June at the end of the month.

Macroscopically, the data of industrial added value, retail sales of consumer goods and fixed asset investment above designated scale in July were all lower than expected, while the real estate data weakened again to a new low. In August, the global energy crisis became more severe, and the economic prospects of Europe were even less ideal. However, the economic data of the United States is not ideal, and the global economy is in recession.

On the supply side, global copper smelting activities decreased in July, and the global copper dispersion index dropped to 46.5 from 46.7 in the previous month. There is still some interference in the global refined copper production. On the one hand, the energy supply problem in Europe is still fermenting, and the copper smelting operation rate may be affected and reduced by the natural gas consumption reduction plan implemented by EU countries; On the other hand, although the domestic smelting and maintenance activities are marginally reduced, some copper production areas have reduced the operating rate due to power limitation, and the growth of refined copper output may continue to be lower than expected. In addition, the reduction of crude copper produced from scrap copper leads to the tight supply of domestic cold materials, which also restricts the growth of refined copper output.

Demand: the recovery of terminal demand is not obvious, and the primary processing market has recovered. On the real estate side, due to the “loan suspension” and the financing problems of private real estate enterprises, the market confidence is insufficient, the supply and demand are weak, and the front and back end data are poor. In the household appliance sector, both domestic and external demand are weak, or it is difficult to have a good performance. At present, the proportion of copper used for new energy vehicles in the automobile sector is not high, and the overall demand is limited.

From the above, in August, copper showed a weak trend of both supply and demand. Rumors of domestic storage stimulated the market, and copper prices kept a moderate rebound trend. There is great uncertainty in the future China-U.S. relations. On September 21, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. The market sentiment is conservative and the rebound is still weak. In September, the domestic traditional peak season has a certain support for the copper price, and it is expected that the copper price may continue to fluctuate strongly in general.

Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic sodium pyrosulfite price has been steadily advancing this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 2683.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2683.33 yuan / ton at the weekend.

This week, the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite has been steadily advancing. The market price range of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite is 2600-2800 yuan / ton, and most of the prices are concentrated around 2600-2750 yuan / ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, mainly to complete the orders of old customers. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some enterprises that have not reported are not included in the scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact the manufacturers for details.).

This week, the price of domestic soda ash is weak and stable, falling by 0.38% in the week. The price of sulfur rises slightly, rising by 0.57% in the week. In general, the cost of raw materials in the upstream of sodium pyrosulfite is weak and stable, and the market price of sodium pyrosulfite is expected to be weak and stable in the future.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the overall cost of upstream raw materials is weak and stable, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will follow the overall cost and gradually weaken and stabilize.

1、 Price trend

Take the sulfuric acid rutile titanium dioxide with a large amount of goods sold in the domestic market as an example. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of titanium dioxide decreased this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide on August 1 was 18866.67 yuan / ton, and the average price on August 25 was 17500 yuan / ton. The price reduction rate within the month was 7.24%.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the domestic titanium dioxide market price continued to decline. The domestic titanium dioxide market is light, the market is weak, the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, and the order is more cautious. The inventory pressure of titanium dioxide manufacturers is large, and the factory price is reduced. After the two enterprises sent a letter to announce the rise in late this month, the price of some low-priced titanium dioxide in the market stopped falling and stabilized. Up to now, the quotation of domestic rutile titanium dioxide is between 15500-19500 yuan / ton; The quotation of anatase titanium dioxide is between 14000-16000 yuan / ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panzhihua Xichang region decreased this month. At present, the market operation is insufficient and the spot is tight. However, the downstream purchasers are under great pressure. They mainly wait and see, and the actual transaction situation is general. Small and medium-sized miners are under great pressure. Most enterprises are mainly supporting prices, and the overall market is weak. Up to now, the quotation excluding tax for 38-42 grade titanium ore is about 1420-1450 yuan / ton, the quotation excluding tax for 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2100-2120 yuan / ton, and the quotation for 47 grade 20 titanium ore is about 2300-2400 yuan / ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate will maintain stable operation, and the actual transaction price is a single negotiation.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers fell sharply this month According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the domestic sulfur price was 612 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month, and 358 yuan / ton on August 25, with a decrease of 41.5%. The upstream sulfur market has been adjusted at a low level recently, and the cost support is general. The market prices of hydrofluoric acid, titanium dioxide and ammonium sulfate in the downstream declined slightly, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers for sulfuric acid was general.

3、 Future forecast

Business society titanium dioxide analysts believe that the current domestic titanium dioxide market is weak. The raw material titanium concentrate decreased slightly, the sulfuric acid price fell more, the cost pressure was weak, and the overall market demand was weak. It is expected that the price of titanium dioxide will be weak and stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be mainly negotiated.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 24, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 6600 yuan / T, which was 766 yuan / t lower than that on August 1 (the average reference price of n-butanol was 7366 yuan / T), a decrease of 10.14%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that since August, the overall market of n-butanol in Shandong Province has shown a fluctuating downward trend. In the first ten days of August, affected by insufficient downstream demand, the n-butanol market continued to decline. As of August 15, the low-end price of the n-butanol market had dropped to about 6500 yuan / ton, with a drop of more than 10% in the first ten days. In late August, as the market price of n-butanol fell to the low point, the transaction in the market improved. After some factories took effect in destocking, the price increased slightly. On August 19, the market price of n-butanol was around 6700-6900 yuan / ton. However, the downstream operating rate is general, and the demand is still insufficient. Near the end of the month, the market price of n-butanol drops again. Some n-butanol factories reduce the price of n-butanol by about 100-200 yuan / ton. As of August 24, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China is around 6400-6800 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 10.14% in the month. At present, the trading volume of n-butanol in the market is general, and the trading volume is weak.

In terms of upstream propylene, since August, the overall propylene market in Shandong has been in a downward trend. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on August 23, the reference price of propylene was 6860.60 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.64% compared with that on August 1 (7348.60 yuan / ton).

Post market analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of the n-butanol market is weak, the confidence of the industry is general, the downstream operation is low, and the supply and demand transmission is relatively slow. The n-butanol datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong will mainly be operated in the interval, and more attention needs to be paid to the changes of raw materials and supply and demand.

Today (August 23), most of the domestic futures chemical industry sectors rose, of which PTA rose 3.98% to 5588 yuan. PTA in the spot market rose, with the average market price of 6200 yuan / ton, up 2.24% over the previous trading day and 24.88% year-on-year.

In addition, the current PTA start-up load is not high, and it is still in the de inventory state. At the same time, the downstream textile industry is about to enter the traditional peak season, and the temperature will start to drop this week. It is expected that the power restriction policy will be relaxed, so the terminal demand is expected to improve month on month. With the comprehensive promotion, the PTA price today ushered in an obvious rebound.

Business analysts believe that from the perspective of cost and supply and demand, PTA prices in the future are still under pressure.

In terms of PTA unit, the 1 million ton unit of chuanneng chemical was shut down on the evening of August 16, and the restart time is to be determined. Yisheng new materials has a total of 6.6 million tons of operating load of 90%, Fuhai Chuang 4.5 million tons, Yadong Petrochemical 700000 tons of load of 80%, Yisheng Dalian 2.25 million tons of unit load of 60%, and the recovery time is to be determined. At present, the industrial load has increased slightly to more than 71%. With the start-up of PTA pre maintenance units, the supply will rise slowly.

Affected by the new progress of the Iranian nuclear agreement and the fear of future economic recession, the international crude oil futures price fluctuated and weakened. As of August 22, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $90.36/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $96.48/barrel. It is expected that the drop in demand will still drive the oil price downward.

At present, the textile and clothing consumption is still in the off-season, and most of the large polyester factories maintain production reduction. The overall operating rate is around 77%, and it is difficult to significantly increase in the short term. Due to the impact of high temperature limit, the terminal weaving load is also kept at a low level, and the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is reduced to below 48%. Orders are still insufficient, and the stock of raw materials continues to be low. Therefore, in a comprehensive view, the situation of weak supply and demand still exists, and the impact of crude oil fluctuations still needs to be paid attention in the later stage.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on August 20 was 95.14, which was the same as yesterday, down 14.68% from the highest point 111.51 (2021-11-03) in the cycle, and up 14.78% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Commodity market: the data monitoring of the business association shows that the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market is relatively stable in the recent (August 11-20) period. The current main manufacturers have normal production, sufficient market inventory, general downstream demand, and relatively light transactions.

Industrial chain: upstream raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business agency, the recent (August 11-20) acrylonitrile market has gone up and down first. On the 20th, the domestic acrylonitrile spot market price was 8950 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.11% compared with 8940 yuan / ton on the 11th. The domestic acrylonitrile market is consolidated, the supply side is loose, the market trading atmosphere is slightly improved but still weak, and the acrylonitrile business offers are consolidated in a narrow range.

Raw material acrylic acid: according to the data of business agency, the quotation of acrylic acid in East China was relatively stable in that week (August 11-20), with the main price of about 8100 yuan / ton. At present, the cost and supply side are supported to a certain extent. The market transaction is mainly based on the demand, and the cautious wait-and-see attitude is strong. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be stable, medium and strong in the short term. More attention should be paid to market information and guidance.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, on August 11, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 7142 yuan / ton, and on August 20, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 6680 yuan / ton. The price of domestic liquefied natural gas fell by 6.47% in that day. The domestic LNG market trend is weak. The liquid price rebounded and stabilized at the weekend. At present, the cost side is still supported. Although the downstream demand is weak, the on-site supply is reduced. It is expected that the price of liquefied natural gas will be stable and upward in the short term.

Future forecast: in the middle of this month, the raw material cost changes little, the cost support is relatively stable, the market spot inventory is sufficient, and the downstream demand and transaction are general. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market will continue to be stable in the future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of August 19, 2022, the market price of organosilicon DMC in the mainstream region was 20680 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 15, 2022 (the reference price of organosilicon DMC was 18960 yuan / ton), the price increased by 1720 yuan / ton, or 9.07%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that this week (August 15-august 19), the domestic silicone DMC market ushered in an upward trend. Due to the impact of power limitation in some regions, the recent market of raw metal silicon has been rising all the way. Therefore, the support of cost for organosilicon DMC has been gradually strengthened. Since the beginning of this week, the market price of organosilicon DMC has been steadily rising. Shandong large factory has increased the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC for two consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 800 yuan / ton. On August 18, the organosilicon DMC of this factory was temporarily reported to be around 19700 yuan / ton. On August 19, Shandong large factory continued to increase the price of organosilicon DMC to break the 20000 mark, referring to 20800 yuan / ton, and increased by 1700 yuan / ton in the week. The price of organosilicon DMC of leading manufacturers has also been significantly increased, and the quotation is around 20800-21000 yuan / ton. As of August 19, the domestic market price of silicone DMC was around 20500-21000 yuan / ton, with an increase of more than 9% in the week. At present, the downstream demand is generally general, and the early stage has been prepared, and most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the current market.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, the price of metal silicon has soared by about 4500 yuan / ton in the last half month, an increase of 24.51% compared with the beginning of the month. As of August 18, according to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic 331 # metal silicon is 22400 yuan / ton. The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Huangpu port is 22300-22500 yuan / ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin port is 22400-22500 yuan / ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming is 22000-22200 yuan / ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Sichuan is 22000-22100 yuan / ton; Shanghai # 441 metal silicon price range is 23000-23100 yuan / ton. The main reasons for the sharp rise in the price of metal silicon are the high-temperature power shortage in Sichuan and the disturbance of the epidemic in Xinjiang. Xinjiang and Sichuan are the largest and third largest production areas of metal silicon in China. The production capacity of the main production areas in Xinjiang accounts for about 35%, and that of Sichuan accounts for about 20%. The two major production areas reduce production and increase production, driving the price of metal silicon to rise strongly.

Forecast of the future trend of silicone DMC Market

At present, the driving force of the upward trend of the silicone DMC market is mainly from the end of raw materials. The upward trend of raw materials drives the cost to increase. The quotation of the silicone DMC factory is strong, but the support given by the downstream demand side is general, and the demand side performance is still calm. The silicone DMC analysts of the business society believe that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market is mostly strong, and the operation is mainly based on consolidation, Whether the market can be continuously supported still needs to pay more attention to the news changes on the demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5783 yuan / ton on August 12, and the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5850 yuan / ton on August 18. This week, the price of chlorinated paraffin increased by 1.15%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of chlorinated paraffin increased, and the domestic operating rate was about 60%. The price of chlorinated paraffin raw liquid wax is rising, the price of raw liquid chlorine is mainly fluctuating, and the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is generally rising. The downstream demand for chlorinated paraffins is weak, and the market transaction is weak. The market trading atmosphere needs to be improved. As of August 18, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui Province was about 6000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China was 5000-5500 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax rose this week. The price of liquid wax continued to rise from the beginning of the week to the end of the week, following the change of crude oil market. The on-site transaction was acceptable. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine rose and fell this week, and the manufacturers have strong intention to support the price. The downstream demand is weak, and the just need to purchase is dominant.

3、 Future forecast

According to the chlorinated paraffin analyst of business club, the current market of chlorinated paraffin raw materials is strong, the price of liquid chlorine in some regions is increased, and the cost support is strengthened. However, the market demand is weak, the transaction is poor, and the trading volume on the floor is small. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will be weak and stable in the short term.

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, as of August 17, the average price of formic acid enterprises was 3766.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price on last Wednesday (August 10), down 3.42% compared with the price on July 17, and down 37.91% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

In the near future (August 10-August 17), the market price of 85% industrial grade formic acid in China has been running steadily. Recently, the upstream caustic soda, liquid ammonia weak finishing, and sulfuric acid prices have fallen. The market price of the main raw material methanol is low, the cost side supports the formic acid market generally, the downstream demand continues to be just needed to purchase, the enterprise’s normal shipment is the main factor, the market transaction is stable, and the negotiation focus of the industrial grade 85% formic acid market is stable.

Cost: upstream caustic soda, the price of caustic soda was adjusted and put into operation on August 16. The overall shipment of the market is relatively stable, the operating load of downstream alumina enterprises is not high, the market wait-and-see mood is strong, and the demand continues to be weak; Upstream liquid ammonia: on August 16, the liquid ammonia Market in Shandong remained stable, the market performance was still weak, and some dealers sold the products at a profit; Upstream sulfuric acid: on August 16, the domestic sulfuric acid market price was temporarily stable; For the upstream methanol, according to the monitoring data of the business association, on August 16, the reference price of methanol was 2458.00, a decrease of 3.8% compared with August 1 (2555.00).

According to the formic acid analyst of the business association, the current cost support is limited. The quotation of formic acid enterprises follows the market, and the downstream inquiry and purchase are based on demand. The market negotiation atmosphere is calm. It is expected that in the short term, 85% of the domestic industrial grade formic acid market will be stable, and more attention should be paid to the changes in raw material prices.

This week (from August 5 to August 12), the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese dropped slightly. The spot market price in East China was 16400 yuan / ton at the end of last week, and it was 16300 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 100 yuan / ton, down 0.61%.

Manganese ore: this week, the manganese ore market continued to decline, and the market divergence was large. Some of the miners holding the goods were not willing to ship, and they were willing to support the price. Another part of the traders had the initiative to ship, which led to the current port market maintaining a single negotiation state, and the overall transaction fell by more than 1 yuan / ton. On August 12, Tianjin Hong Kong and Macao block was around 47.5 yuan / ton, Gabon was around 45 yuan / ton, and South Africa Semi carbonated acid was 35 yuan / ton. Qinzhou Hong Kong and Macao block is about 50.5 yuan / ton, Gabon is about 47.8 yuan / ton, and South Africa Semi carbonated acid is about 36 yuan / ton. The port transactions remained relatively low, and the buyer’s price reduction was obvious.

The K-bar chart of commodity price reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the idea of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy and sell according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red indicates rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above weekly and monthly k-column diagram of electrolytic manganese that since March 2022, electrolytic manganese has continued to decline.

This week, the market price of electrolytic manganese continued to decline. At the beginning of this week, the mainstream price of electrolytic manganese market was around 14400-14800 yuan / ton, and the low-priced goods appeared frequently in the market, which once again affected the market mentality. In addition, the slow progress of steel bidding in this month made the steel factory have a strong mentality of price reduction. Overseas sales are generally weak, and the overall market price is expected to be weak in the weak market of supply and demand. The market is concerned about the new round of steel moves, and the wait-and-see mood is strong.

In terms of manganese and silicon, the price of silicon and manganese was slightly repaired this week, and the futures market price slightly improved. The main contract closed at 7400 yuan / ton, and the spot performance was temporarily general. In August, the steel bidding was accepted and delivered to the range of 7300-7400 yuan / ton, and the market transaction was improved. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the market price of silicon and manganese in Ningxia region (specification: femn68si18) on August 12 was about 7100-7200 yuan / ton.