According to the monitoring data of business agency, from July 4 to 11, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China fell from 11100 yuan / ton to 10960 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.26% in the week, and the price fell by 8.28% month on month, up 2.43% year on year.

This week, the domestic cyclohexanone market was depressed, the raw material pure benzene market was weak and fell, and the cost of cyclohexanone was lack of support. In the cyclohexanone market, the overall supply and demand are weak, and the downstream is more rigid, which needs to be followed up.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of July 11:

region ., Price

East China, 11300-11400 yuan / ton cash delivery

South China, 11450-11550 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong region, 11000-11100 yuan / ton cash delivery

Raw material pure benzene: the price of pure benzene fluctuated and fell. The main factor causing the price decline is the cost caused by the deep decline of crude oil and the collapse of macro psychological support.

Downstream caprolactam: the spot price of caprolactam has increased slightly. Recently, the burden of caprolactam devices has been reduced and more maintenance has been carried out, the supply has been reduced, and the caprolactam enterprises have suffered serious losses.

Pure benzene fluctuates at a high level, and the cost side is generally supported. Downstream demand has not improved significantly for the time being. Cyclohexanone enterprises are at a loss and the supply is relatively small. Cyclohexanone analysts of business agency predict that the short-term cyclohexanone market is dominated by stalemate and consolidation.

DOTP prices fell sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of DOTP fell this week, and the market of DOTP fell. As of July 11, the price of DOTP was 9287.50 yuan / ton, down 5.23% from 9800 yuan / ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of DOTP fell sharply this week, setting a new low for the year.

The price of isooctanol fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of isooctanol fell sharply this week, and the market of isooctanol fell. As of July 11, the price of isooctanol was 8333.33 yuan / ton, down 6.37% from 8900 yuan / ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. This week, the price of isooctanol fell sharply, the cost of DOTP fell, and the downward pressure on the DOTP market increased.

PTA price fluctuation adjustment this week

According to the price monitoring of business agency, PTA price fluctuated and adjusted this week, and the high crude oil price fluctuated and adjusted. PTA market fluctuated and warmed up. As of July 11, PTA price was 6685 yuan / ton, up 1.15% from the PTA price of 6609.25 yuan / ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. The high crude oil price fluctuated and adjusted, the PTA price fluctuated and warmed up, the cost pressure of DOTP weakened, and the positive momentum of DOTP remained under great downward pressure.

Aftermarket expectations

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, the high crude oil price was adjusted by shock this week, PTA prices recovered by a slight shock, isooctanol prices fell sharply in the off-season demand, DOTP costs fell, and the upward momentum of DOTP remained under increasing downward pressure. In the future, the decline in the cost of DOTP raw materials accumulated in the off-season of the market, and the downward pressure on DOTP increased. It is expected that the price of DOTP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 fell this week. The average price of domestic PVC was 7348.75 yuan / ton last Friday and 6850 yuan / ton this Friday. The price fell by 6.79% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic spot market of PVC continued to decline this week. Futures prices fell today, dampening sentiment in the spot market. The wait-and-see mood of downstream enterprises and traders is obvious, downstream procurement is cautious, orders are mainly received on demand, and the delivery and transaction of PVC spot market is general. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone is mostly around 6450-7100 yuan / ton.

In terms of international crude oil, the price of international crude oil futures plummeted on July 5. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $99.50 / barrel, down $8.93 or 8.2%;, The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $102.77 / barrel, down $10.73 or 9.5%. Oil prices recorded the largest one-day decline since March, with Brent down nearly 10%, mainly due to the rising market concerns about the global economic recession, pressure on the commodity sector, and bearish energy commodities such as crude oil. Taking into consideration, under the premise of tight supply and demand, the driving force of sharp decline is not very strong, but the oil market may intensify the shock in the future, the amplitude will increase, and the market risk will also increase.

In terms of calcium carbide, on July 8, the average price of calcium carbide was 3850 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.32% compared with the average price of 3800 yuan / ton on July 1. The factory prices of calcium carbide manufacturers were mostly stable this week, and the prices of some enterprises rose. The price of blue carbon in the upstream fell slightly, the cost support weakened, the PVC market in the downstream fell slightly, and the demand for calcium carbide weakened. It is expected that in the short term, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will temporarily stabilize and consolidate.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

PVC analysts of business agency believe that the spot price of PVC fell this week. At present, the demand of PVC spot market is light. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly receiving orders on demand, and the transaction atmosphere is general. Futures prices fell today, dampening sentiment in the spot market. It is expected that the PVC market will operate weakly and stably in the short term.

Summary of precious metal spot price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver market in early trading on July 7 was 4191.67 yuan / kg, down 4.55% from the average price of 4391.67 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (July 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 4770 yuan / kg, a decrease of 12.12%.

On July 7, the spot market price of gold was 377.02 yuan / g, a daily decrease of 2.16%, which was 3.41% lower than the average early market price of 395.54 yuan / g at the beginning of the month (July 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 1.25%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Policy Overview

1. Domestic news

The central bank today conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 3 billion yuan, with the bid winning interest rate of 2.10%, unchanged from the previous period. As 80billion yuan of reverse repo expired today, 77billion yuan of net withdrawal was achieved on that day.

At the end of June, China’s gold reserves were reported at US $113.8 billion; China’s foreign exchange reserves in June were 3071.27 billion US dollars, expected to be 3113 billion US dollars, with a previous value of 3127.78 billion US dollars, a decrease of 56.51 billion US dollars month on month.

2. International news

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the meeting. Among them, most officials of the Federal Reserve believe that the growth risk tends to be downward, and it may take some time to reduce the inflation rate to 2%. If inflation continues, the Fed believes that a “more restrictive” level of interest rates is possible. Fed officials believe that the FOMC meeting in July will raise interest rates by 50 basis points or 75 basis points, and expect economic growth to rebound in the second quarter.

The Russian State Duma (the lower house of parliament) passed a bill stipulating that information about the size of Russia’s gold and foreign exchange reserves should be classified as state secrets. In addition, in order to reduce foreign currency deposits in banks, Russia allows banks to implement negative interest rates on foreign currency deposits of legal entities.

Aftermarket forecast

In terms of international policy, the expectation that some central banks in the world will significantly raise interest rates and the monetary policy of major central banks as a whole will be tightened is intensifying. In particular, the Federal Reserve will control inflation by raising interest rates, and the price of interest-free asset precious metals is under pressure. Precious metal prices are expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term.

At the beginning of July, the domestic propane market rose steadily, and the Shandong market rebounded slightly. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6025.75 yuan / ton on July 1 and 6050.75 yuan / ton on July 6, with an increase of 0.41% during the period and 25.06% over the same period last year.

As of July 6, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region, July 6th

South China, 5700-5850 yuan / ton

North China, 3000-6150 yuan / ton

Shandong region, 5950-6100 yuan / ton

Northeast China, 6100-6250 yuan / ton

At the beginning of the month, the domestic propane market remained stable on the whole, and the propane Market in Shandong increased by a narrow margin. With the introduction of CP price in July, propylene and butane fell, but the decline was less than expected, which brought relative support to the domestic market. In addition, the price of international crude oil market rose, which was good for the market mentality in terms of cost. The downstream market entry enthusiasm is mild, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable. At present, the upstream inventory of Shandong market is mostly in a controllable state, and most manufacturers are mainly supporting prices.

Saudi Aramco announced in July 2022 that both propylene and butane fell. Propane was $725 / ton, down $25 / ton from the previous month; Butane was $725 / ton, down $25 / ton from the previous month.

At present, the market price of propane in Shandong is mostly around 6000 yuan / ton, the upstream inventory is temporarily pressureless, and the downstream market entry atmosphere is slightly improved. However, with the sharp decline of international crude oil, the bad market mentality on the news side has significantly restrained the rebound market. In addition, there is no improvement in terminal demand. It is expected that the price of propane market may weaken in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business news agency, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 216666.67 yuan / ton on January 1, 2022. As of June 30, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 473333.34 yuan / ton, and the market rose 118.46% in half a year.

In the first quarter, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market rose steadily, with a quarterly increase of 120.92%. In January, the price of raw material spodumene was high, the price of lithium carbonate kept rising, and lithium hydroxide actively followed the rise of raw materials. The superposition of supply and demand performed well, and the market operated strongly. In February, the cost support was still strong, the overall operating rate of the market was about 60%, the supply side was tight, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry and procurement was ok, and the lithium hydroxide market continued to rise. In March, the price of raw materials was high, and the demand for lithium hydroxide from downstream high nickel manufacturers increased. The price of lithium hydroxide rose steadily. At the end of the month, the pace of market trading was slightly slower, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong.

In the second quarter, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market first fell and then rose, with a quarterly decline of 1.11%. In April, the upstream lithium carbonate Market weakened, some manufacturers released new capacity, the overall supply increment, the domestic downstream spot purchase demand slowed down, and the performance of high nickel was poor. Due to the downward impact of lithium carbonate price and slightly weak demand, the high level of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market loosened and the price fell slightly. In May, the foreign lithium hydroxide market price was relatively strong, the domestic market demand side was light, and the market was weak and stable. In the second half of the month, with the price of upstream lithium carbonate rising slightly, the cost side support increased, the supply increased slightly, and the construction of downstream high nickel material plants recovered slightly, but the market purchasing mentality was cautious. In June, the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream increased slightly, which raised the support for the lithium hydroxide Market, increased the market supply, slightly increased the enthusiasm of inquiry in the downstream, and the market rose steadily. In the late ten days, there was little demand for high nickel, the enthusiasm of market inquiry and procurement weakened, the market transaction atmosphere was flat, and the price of lithium hydroxide operated stably.

The price of lithium carbonate in the upstream increased steadily after stabilizing in June 2022 according to the price monitoring of the business community. On June 30, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 459000 yuan / ton, which was 1.77% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 451000 yuan / ton on June 1). On June 30, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 478000 yuan / ton, up 1.49% from the average price at the beginning of the month (June 1, the average price of carbon in East China was 471000 yuan / ton).

The lithium hydroxide analyst of business club believes that in July, the cost side support is still there, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is general, and the market transaction is just in need. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market may be stable, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the guidance of market news.

From June 24 to July 1, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene increased slightly, from 7777 yuan / ton last weekend to 7805 yuan / ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.36%.

On June 30, the price of international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $105.76 / barrel, down $4.02 or 3.7%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $109.03 / barrel, down $3.42 or 3.04%. The main reason was that the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (opec+) confirmed that its production increase in August was consistent with the previously announced increase, and the supply tension was expected to ease slightly, and the oil price was under pressure.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

June 6, 9500.,+200

June 8, 9700.,+200

June 10, 10000.,+300

June 22, 9800.,-200

June 27, 9600.,-200

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene was reduced by 200 yuan / ton on June 27, 2022, and 9600 yuan / ton was implemented.

Other enterprises: Jingbo Petrochemical quote 9350 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical quote 9300 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical quote 9353 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quote 9400 yuan / ton, Hongrun Petrochemical quote 9450 yuan / ton.

This week, the hydrogenated benzene market fluctuated, and the overall price increased slightly. Boosted by the strong crude oil and styrene prices at the beginning of the week, the domestic pure benzene market operated strongly at the beginning of the week, and the market performed well. Later, as crude oil and styrene weakened, Sinopec lowered its listing price by 200 yuan / ton, putting downward pressure on the pure benzene market. The trend of benzene hydrogenation enterprises was basically stable in the first half of the week, and the price was slightly corrected in the second half of the week due to the weakness of pure benzene. As of the weekend, crude oil continued to be under pressure, the focus of pure benzene market negotiation fell, and the market price fell again. The domestic price of pure benzene was 9250-9600 yuan / ton. On the whole, although there are many negative factors in the pure benzene market at present, the downstream demand starts to release with the price of pure benzene falling, and the sales of pure benzene is acceptable. Fundamental crude oil is still in a high consolidation trend, and it is expected that pure benzene prices will remain in a high consolidation trend, with limited downward space, boosted by demand.

The crude benzene market maintained a high consolidation trend this week. Shandong implemented 7880-7885 yuan / ton, an increase of 10 yuan / ton compared with last week. The fluctuations in other domestic regions this week were relatively small, and the overall concentration was 10-50 yuan / ton. In terms of coking enterprises, the recent sharp decline in coke has affected the profits of coking enterprises. Coking enterprises have taken the initiative to limit production. At present, the general production limit is about 30%, and the supply of crude benzene is reduced compared with the previous period. Boosted by the reduction in output, although the basic market this week is slightly under pressure, the bidding price of crude benzene this week remains high and volatile. In the future, the business news agency believes that although the downstream hydrogenation benzene enterprises have suffered losses recently and have some resistance to high priced crude benzene, the recent commencement of hydrogenation benzene enterprises is OK, the demand for crude benzene still exists, and the recent supply of crude benzene is tight. It is expected that the recent trend of crude benzene will be mainly high-level consolidation, with limited downward space.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate Market was at a high level this week, with limited changes in spot prices. As of July 1, the average price of domestic potassium sulfate 50 particles was 5566.67 yuan / ton, up or down 0% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week.

This week, the momentum of the domestic potash fertilizer market has weakened, and the operating rate of potassium sulfate Mannheim enterprises has stabilized, with the overall operating rate of about 45%, and the on-site supply is tight. In terms of potassium chloride, the domestic potassium price fell steadily, the procurement of downstream enterprises such as potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate slowed down, while the arrival of border trade surged, the supply of potassium chloride was expected to increase, the spot offer was loose, and the support for processing potassium sulfate enterprises was weakened. At present, the on-site offer of potassium sulfate is temporarily stable, there are few new orders of potassium sulfate, the trading is general, and the on-site inventory rises.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of business agency believe that the high price of domestic potassium sulfate is strong this week, and the market of potassium chloride is falling. Domestic potassium sulfate cost side support is loose, the demand side follow-up is general, and the supply side maintains a flat tight pattern. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic potassium sulfate price may fall due to the falling cost and weak demand.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of June 29, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 12700.00 yuan / ton. In June, the price of DMF was narrow and strong. From 12550 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 12700 yuan / ton at the end of the month, the price at the beginning of the month increased by 1.2% compared with that at the end of the month, or about 100 yuan / ton. As a whole, the price in June was narrow, and the mainstream price range was 12500-12700 yuan / ton.

From June 13 to June 20 in the first ten days of June, the domestic DMF price was weak, the mainstream price range was 12500-13000 yuan / ton, the transaction atmosphere was ok, the negotiation atmosphere was positive, the manufacturers shipped smoothly, the downstream just needed to purchase, the logistics was smooth, and the upstream methanol: the average price of the domestic methanol market was 2715 yuan / ton. Recently, the oil price fell, and the methanol futures market of plastics, PP and other commodities fell. In terms of spot, the production cost of methanol has weakened slightly, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The domestic methanol market may be stable in the near future.

In the middle of June, the domestic DMF price operated smoothly. At present, the mainstream price range is 12500-13000 yuan / ton. The transaction atmosphere is acceptable, the negotiation atmosphere is positive, the manufacturers’ shipment is smooth, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the logistics is smooth. Upstream methanol: as of June 20, the domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range. The price was relatively higher, rising first and then falling. The main reason was that the market demand improved and the receiving price rose. However, after the methanol futures fell in the middle of the week, the trading atmosphere became weaker, and the atmosphere of the domestic methanol spot market was light, and the price fell slightly.

From late June to June 23, the domestic DMF price has been running smoothly. At present, the mainstream price range is 12500-13000 yuan / ton, the transaction atmosphere is acceptable, the negotiation atmosphere is positive, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the logistics is smooth. Upstream methanol: as of June 20, the domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range. The price was relatively higher, rising first and then falling. The main reason was that the market demand improved and the receiving price rose. However, after the methanol futures fell in the middle of the week, the trading atmosphere became weaker, and the atmosphere of the domestic methanol spot market was light, and the price fell slightly.

Chemical commodity index: on June 28, the chemical index was 1165 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 16.79% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 94.82% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the analysts of business agency DMF, it is expected that the DMF market will operate stably in July, with a narrow range of strong operation. (if you want to know more about the latest market trends of the industrial chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business club to obtain commodity information and master commodity prices)

According to the data monitored by the business club, the average price of domestic rubber grade premium white carbon black was 6325.00 yuan / ton as of June 29. In June, the overall market for white carbon black operated smoothly with little price change. The price was mainly stable. The cost of white carbon black was supported to a certain extent. The downstream just needed to purchase, and the willingness to prepare goods was not strong. At present, the market supply was normal, the market transaction atmosphere was general, and the overall market maintained a balance between supply and demand, The price fluctuates little.

In the first ten days of May, the market price of white carbon black was stable from June 6 to June 10. Compared with the same period last week, there was no change in the price. The overall market supply and demand was balanced. The downstream just needed to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics was smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere was flat. The upstream hydrochloric acid: mainly operated stably. The recent market price of upstream liquid chlorine was adjusted at a high level, with general cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market was adjusted at a high level, and the price of polyaluminum chloride was adjusted at a low level, The downstream purchase intention is average.

In mid May, the market price of white carbon black was stable from June 13 to June 17. Compared with the same period last week, there was no change in the price. The overall market supply and demand was balanced. The downstream just needed to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics was smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere was flat. The price of upstream hydrochloric acid: domestic hydrochloric acid fell slightly. The average market price fell from 287.50 yuan / ton last weekend to 275.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 4.35%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year increase was 19.57%. On June 16, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 72.37, unchanged from yesterday, down 47.52% from the highest point 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 302.50% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

In late May, the market price of white carbon black was stable. Compared with the same period last week, there was no change in the price. The overall market supply and demand was balanced. The downstream just needed to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics was smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere was flat. The upstream hydrochloric acid: as of June 24, the upstream cost of hydrochloric acid was generally supported, the downstream ammonium chloride market was high, the price of polyaluminum chloride was low, and the downstream purchase intention was general, In the short term, the hydrochloric acid market will mainly operate stably.

Chemical commodity index: on June 28, the chemical index was 1165 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 16.79% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 94.82% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

According to the white carbon black analyst of business agency, it is expected that the white carbon black market will mainly operate stably in the short term, which can improve the balance of market supply and demand, and the range of price fluctuation is limited. (if you want to know more about the market dynamics of the industrial chain, you are welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business club, obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).