According to the data of business agency, as of August 14, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 6520.00 yuan / ton (tax included), up 0.15% from 6510.00 yuan / ton on August 8.

On August 14, the fuel oil commodity index was 132.05, which was the same as yesterday, down 2.69% from the highest point 135.70 in the cycle (June 21, 2022), and up 186.57% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The rise of international crude oil prices is supported by the cost of ship fuel market. According to the business news agency, as of August 14, the price of 180CST fuel oil from Zhoushan region of China National combustion Corporation was 6550 yuan / ton, and the price of 120cst fuel oil from Zhoushan region was 6650 yuan / ton; In Shanghai, the price of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6500 yuan / ton, and the price of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6600 yuan / ton.

International crude oil prices rose, and US gasoline inventories fell sharply last week; In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised the growth forecast of oil demand this year, and the data level eased the expected pressure of demand decline caused by economic recession; Combined with the soaring price of natural gas, the demand for oil as an alternative energy has been boosted. On the other hand, gasoline stocks in the United States have dropped significantly; In addition, the CPI data of the United States in July showed that inflation was lower than expected and risk appetite improved, boosting the upward trend of oil prices.

The decrease of fuel oil inventory in Singapore supports the price of fuel oil. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of August 10, Singapore’s fuel oil storage fell by 939000 barrels, to the lowest level since July 2019, reaching 17.07 million barrels; Light distillate oil inventories rose 250000 barrels to reach a two-week high of 17.667 million barrels; Medium distillate stocks fell by 964000 barrels to a two-week low of 7.402 million barrels.

Future forecast: the rise of international crude oil will boost the ship fuel market. At present, the domestic ship fuel market is mainly on a wait-and-see basis, with light transactions, limited terminal demand and just need to purchase. This week, the overall price of ship fuel market remained stable. At present, the market price of 180CST low sulfur fuel oil is about 6500 yuan / ton, and the market price of 120cst low sulfur fuel oil is about 6600 yuan / ton, which is a single discussion. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will be sorted out in the near future.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the low level of the domestic PA66 market rose slightly this week, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell. As of August 12, the average ex factory price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding grade sample enterprises of business agency was about 21150 yuan / ton, up or down 1.93% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, the domestic adipic acid price continued to be weak this week. The confidence of the upstream pure benzene market is poor, and the cost side is still bad. At present, the inventory pressure is not reduced, and the price reduction of the manufacturer’s inventory has suppressed the market mentality, and the market demand is weak. In addition, the domestic adiponitrile of Tianchen Tianchen Qixiang adiponitrile production line was shipped step by step, starting to replace some imported sources.

The market of adipic acid, the upstream raw material, is still weak, the bad news of adiponitrile continues, and the cost side support of PA66 is weak. In terms of industrial operating rate, the load level of domestic PA66 industry continued to drop in the early period due to the continuous pressure on the profits of PA66 enterprises. At present, the spot supply in the market has contracted, and the supply pressure has been partially eased. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. On the demand side, the current end-user enterprises tend to follow up with goods to maintain production, and have strong resistance to high price goods. In the traditional off-season, the demand of downstream factories shrinks, and the merchants have great resistance to shipment. The on-site transaction is still light. However, the reduction of low-end goods supply has reinforced the mentality of merchants, narrowed the margin of profit, and some brands of products have tried to rise.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 eased this week. The raw material side adiponitrile market is weak, and the cost side support of PA66 is weakened. The load of PA66 enterprises is low, the contradiction between supply and demand in the field is weakened, the demand side is short of goods, and the transaction is light. It is expected that PA66 will continue to be affected by the slow follow-up of the downstream in the short term and will mainly be sorted out and operated.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5883 yuan / ton on August 5, and the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5783 yuan / ton on August 11. This week, the price of chlorinated paraffin dropped by 1.70%.

2、 Market analysis

Chlorinated paraffin prices fell this week. The price of chlorinated paraffin raw material liquid chlorine and liquid wax decreased, and the cost support was insufficient. The downstream demand for chlorinated paraffins is weak, the trading volume in the field is general, and the downstream is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. This week, the operating rate of chlorinated paraffin enterprises is about 60%. As of August 11, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is about 5800 yuan / ton, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast is 5000-5500 yuan / ton, and the market quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong is 5850-6000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax fell first and then rose this week. The price of liquid wax began to fall at the beginning of the week following the change of crude oil market, and the market began to strengthen on Wednesday. The on-site transaction is average. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine rose and fell this week, and the overall market was stable. Shandong has a large inventory of liquid chlorine, the price is mainly downward, and the market demand is insufficient.

3、 Future forecast

The chlorinated paraffin analyst of business club believes that the current market demand for chlorinated paraffin is sluggish, the trading atmosphere is poor, and the trading volume on the floor is relatively small. The raw material market weakened, the cost of chlorinated paraffin decreased, and the raw material market rebounded slightly at the weekend. It is expected that the price range of chlorinated paraffins will be dominated by weak and volatile operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, the price of mixed xylene declined slightly this week. On July 29, the price was 8160 yuan / ton; On Friday (August 5), the price was 8090 yuan / ton, 0.86% lower than last week and 36.2% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

During the week, due to the broad decline of crude oil, the external toluene was weak, and the support of external news was weak, which led to the decline of mixed xylene. However, the demand of downstream PX for mixed xylene is acceptable, the enterprise inventory level is low, and the tight supply limits the decline.

In the external market, the mixed xylene in Asia fell sharply this week. On Thursday (August 4), the price of imported mixed xylene from South Korea was US $962 / T, a year-on-year decrease of US $54 / T, a decrease of 5.31%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was 965 US dollars / ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 54 US dollars / ton, or 5.3%.

In terms of crude oil, the US crude oil and gasoline inventories increased, adding to the weak economic data, the market worried about the slowdown of oil demand, and the crude oil fell broadly in the week. As of August 5, Brent price of this week has dropped by 15.09 USD / barrel or 13.72% compared with last week; WTI fell by 9.61 USD / barrel, or 9.74%.

On the downstream side, in the PX market, the domestic PX price fell sharply this week. On July 29, the price was 9550 yuan / ton, and on Friday (August 5), the price was 9000 yuan / ton, down 5.76% from last week and up 23.29% from the same period last year.

In the ox market, the price of ox in East China fell this week. On Friday (August 5), the price of ox in East China was 8000 yuan / ton, down 3.61% from last week and up 26.98% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong fell after rising this week. On July 29, the price was 8541 yuan / ton, and on August 5, the price was 8555 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.17% over last week and 10.55% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the oil market is stuck. Due to the weak economic data caused by the interest rate hikes of many countries, the pressure of crude oil decline increases. However, OPEC + has limited production capacity and oil supply is still tight. Crude oil is a long and short game, and the trend is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic situation, etc. on crude oil prices.

The demand for downstream PX still exists, and the short-term supply of mixed xylene continues to be tight, supporting the price. In the later period, if the decline of crude oil is suspended, mixed xylene may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, and the impact of mixed xylene and downstream device dynamics, port inventory and outer disk on mixed xylene price.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 9, the pet water bottle level pet price of this week has been operating in a narrow range, with the current average price of 8980 yuan / ton. The overall market has been operating in a narrow range, the focus of negotiation is stable, the market supply and demand are balanced, and the logistics delivery is smooth at present.

The domestic pet price is operating in a narrow range and weak. This week, the price has been reduced slightly. At present, the market operation rate is normal, the manufacturers are active in shipping, the logistics is smooth, the profit is given away, the market transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, the downstream readiness is general, and the cost is lack of support. At present, the mainstream price is about 8900 yuan / ton. This week, the price has been reduced slightly. In the short term, pet is stable, medium and weak.

Upstream ethylene glycol: the latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on August 4 was 4441.67 yuan / ton, down 1.3% from the previous trading day and 20.21% year-on-year.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: on August 8, the rubber and plastic index was 717 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 32.36% from the highest point 1060 points in the cycle (March 14, 2012), and up 35.80% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now).

Pet analysts of business agency believe that the pet market is expected to operate in a narrow range in the short term. (if you want to know more about the latest market trends of the industrial chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business association to obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).

The price of acetic anhydride fell this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell this week. As of August 8, the price of acetic anhydride was 6225 yuan / ton, down 3.86% from 6475 yuan / ton on July 31 last weekend. This week, the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and fell. The quotation of some acetic anhydride enterprises fell below 6000 yuan / ton. The cost fell and the demand was weak. This week, the market of acetic anhydride fell weakly.

This week, the price of raw material acetic acid fell sharply

It can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in the business community that the price of acetic acid fell this week. As of August 8, the price of acetic acid was 3400 yuan / ton, down 3.20% from 3512.50 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month; The demand is insufficient, the price of acetic acid drops sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride drops, and the pressure of acetic anhydride drop increases.

This week, methanol prices fell first and then rose

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business club that the methanol price first fell and then rose this week. As of August 8, the price of methanol was 2546.67 yuan / ton, down 0.33% from 2555 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. The energy crisis has been alleviated. The price of methanol fell first and then increased. The cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride has decreased. The driving force for acetic anhydride to rise has weakened and the downward pressure remains.

Future outlook

According to the analysis of acetic anhydride data of business club, this week, raw material methanol fell first and then rose, the price of acetic acid fell sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, the price of acetic anhydride fell, and the quotations of some acetic anhydride enterprises fell below 6000 yuan / ton. In general, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased and the demand was weak, and the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply. The demand for cost reduction is insufficient, and the pressure for acetic anhydride to fall is increased. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate slightly in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 5, the average price of domestic industrial grade excellent cyclohexane in this week was 9233.33 yuan / ton. The price of cyclohexane in this week was mainly stable. At present, the operating rate is normal, the logistics is smooth, the transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is stable, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 9100 yuan / ton, the purchasing atmosphere is general, the stable operation is mainly maintained, the negotiation focus is stable, and the price fluctuation range this week is not large.

The average price of domestic industrial grade excellent cyclohexane is 9833.33 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 9200 yuan / ton. The overall market supply and demand of cyclohexane is balanced, and the downstream just needs to be purchased. The negotiation focus is stable and the supply side is normal.

Upstream pure benzene: East China: Yangzi Petrochemical offers 8450 yuan / ton; South China: Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8450 yuan / ton; Central China: Wuhan ethylene offers 8450 yuan / ton;

Chemical index: on August 5, the chemical index was 978 points, down 3 points from yesterday, down 30.14% from the highest point 1400 points (October 23, 2021) in the cycle, and up 63.55% from the lowest point 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now)

According to the cyclohexane analyst of business club, it is expected that the cyclohexane market will operate smoothly in the short term. (if you want to obtain more commodity information and master commodity prices, please subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate market fell this week, and the spot prices of various brands fell. As of August 4, the average price of domestic potassium sulfate 50 particles was 5200 yuan / ton, up or down -2.80% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

This week, the momentum of the domestic potash fertilizer market continued to be weak. The operating rate of potassium sulfate Mannheim enterprises remained low, and the overall operating rate decreased to 40%. Affected by this, the on-site supply of potassium sulfate is limited, but the downstream consumption is poor. In addition, due to the impact of the previous export policy, the on-site supply pressure is high. In terms of upstream potassium chloride, the arrival of border trade and ports increased this week, and the increase in the supply of goods caused the price decline of both imported and domestic goods. The procurement of downstream enterprises such as potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate was general, which weakened the support for processing potassium sulfate enterprises. At present, the market quotation of potassium sulfate has fallen, and the profit situation of enterprises is poor. In particular, some quotations in Northeast China have broken through the loss line, and there are few new orders. Traders react that the downstream follow-up is slow, and the trading is limited.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of business agency believe that the domestic potassium sulfate market fell this week, while the potassium chloride market fell. The cost support of domestic potassium sulfate is weakened, and the supply side is OK, but the follow-up of the demand side is poor, and the superimposed export orders are reduced. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price may continue to weaken in the short term due to poor demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, toluene fell violently this month, and the price fell broadly. The price of toluene was 8900 yuan / ton on July 1 and 7640 yuan / ton on July 28, down 14.16% from the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 31.72%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil fell broadly this month, coupled with the weakening market interest in Asian American arbitrage, toluene in Asia fell deeply, and the support of external news was weak. Domestically, the downstream market of toluene is generally poor, the demand of the gasoline industry is weak, and the downstream market for high priced toluene is poor. Poor domestic demand has become an important factor to suppress the price of toluene. Under the influence of multiple bad news in the month, toluene fell broadly.

In the external market, the price of toluene in Asia fell sharply this month. On July 28, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was $960 / ton, down $265 / ton, or 21.63%.

In terms of crude oil, there was a long short game in crude oil during the month, and concerns about tight supply remained, but the Federal Reserve and many central banks increased interest rates, intensifying market concerns about economic recession, and crude oil fluctuated widely. As of July 28, Brent fell by $7.67 / barrel, or 6.68%; WTI fell $9.34 / barrel, or 8.83%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell continuously this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of domestic goods was 17625 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 15975 yuan / ton, down 9.36% from the beginning of the month and up 5.33% from the same period last year.

In the PX market, domestic PX prices stabilized after falling in the middle of this month. The price was 10000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9550 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price fell by 4.5% compared with the beginning of the month and increased by 34.51% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the gasoline market in Shandong Province was weak this month, and the price fell violently. The price was 9092 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 8479 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 6.75% from the beginning of the month and up 6.9% from the same period last year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the macro side is still affected by the economy. The interest rate hikes of central banks in many countries bring downward risks to the economy, and the outlook for global commodities is also affected by it; However, the logic of medium and short-term supply and demand fundamentals has not changed, the expectation of supply tightening has not been lifted, and the trend of crude oil is still full of uncertainty. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ production increase decision, US crude oil and refined oil inventory dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

Crude oil shocks, and the cost side support is loose; Toluene exports have weakened, domestic demand is sluggish, the contradiction between supply and demand has increased, and toluene may continue to decline. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, toluene device dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on toluene price.

From July 1 to July 28, 2022, the domestic coal tar production price fluctuated upward. The price at the beginning of the month was 5387.5 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 5537.5 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 2.78%.

On July 27, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 188.62, unchanged from yesterday, down 0.55% from the highest point of 189.66 in the cycle (2022-05-18), and up 300.04% from the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Changes in the bidding price of coal, coke and oil in Shanxi in July 2022 (unit: yuan / ton)

Region, price on July 1, price on July 28, monthly rise and fall

Linfen, 5370, 5500, +130

Luliang., 5400., 5500., +100

Taiyuan, 5440, 5560, +120

In July 2022, the bidding price of tar in Shanxi Province rose as a whole. Recently, the construction of coking enterprises was low, the overall output of tar fell significantly, the downstream losses were serious, and the market demand was still in stock, supporting the consolidation of high tar prices.

In July, the overall trend of the coal tar market fell first and then rose. The overall trend was dominated. After a slight decline at the beginning of the month, the price continued to rise. At the beginning of the month, the performance of the domestic tar market was mixed. The bidding price in Shanxi fell and led to the weakness of the northwest western region. The bidding price in other regions increased slightly, and some regions were temporarily stable. The overall performance of the domestic coal tar bidding market this month was significantly different from each region, with both ups and downs. The main rule is that Shandong affects Hebei and its surrounding areas, and Shanxi affects the price in the northwest, but on the whole, the price still rises slightly. In terms of supply, coking enterprises have suffered serious losses this month. Up to now, they have reduced their losses by five rounds, with a loss of about 500 yuan / ton. The production restriction of coking enterprises has been increasing. According to the current supply and demand situation of the coke market, it is difficult to improve the sales situation of the downstream steel market in the short term, and the production capacity of coking enterprises will still be in a low state in the short term. Therefore, the output of coal tar as a by-product will also be at a low level in the short term, and the mentality of coke enterprises to be reluctant to sell and support prices is obvious. In the downstream, affected by the high price of raw materials, the performance of the deep processing market is not satisfactory. The production enthusiasm of enterprises is low, and the support for tar demand is limited.

In terms of supply: after the four rounds of raising and lowering of coke prices, the current coking enterprises have suffered serious losses, and the coking enterprises have further increased their efforts to limit production, with most enterprises limiting production by 30-50%. With the strengthening of production restriction, the current overall supply of coke is tightening, and the output of related by-products fell significantly this month.

On the whole, the downstream deep-processing enterprises continue to perform in the doldrums and have strong resistance to high price tar. In the future, the business community believes that the overall tar market is in a weak pattern of supply and demand. Although the supply of the tar market is tight, but the downstream demand is slightly reduced, the tar price is difficult to fluctuate greatly, and the overall trend remains stable and weak.

Relevant information:

According to the National Bureau of statistics, in June 2022, China’s raw coal output was 379.313 million tons, an increase of 15.3% year-on-year; From January to June, the cumulative output was 219.357 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 11.0%. In June 2022, China’s coke output was 41.458 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%; From January to June, the cumulative output was 239.503 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5%.