1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 fell sharply within 7 days. On June 20, the average price of domestic PVC was 8385 yuan / ton, and on June 27, the average price was 7472.5 yuan / ton. The price fell by 10.88% within 7 days.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the PVC domestic spot market continued to decline, and the futures price fell for 13 consecutive working days, dampening the sentiment of the spot market. At present, the confidence of PVC spot market is still insufficient. Downstream enterprises and traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. They are cautious in taking goods, have a weak willingness to purchase, and have a poor delivery in the PVC spot market. As of the 27th, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone is mostly around 7050-7800 yuan / ton. The quotation of Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang is relatively high, around 7700-7800 yuan / ton.

International crude oil. On June 27, the price of international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $109.57/barrel, up US $1.95 or 1.81%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $110.98/barrel, up US $1.88 or 1.72%. The market is mainly affected by the expectation of supply tightening.

Ethylene, internationally, on June 27, Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 981 US dollars / ton; CFR Southeast Asia quotation is USD 1101 / ton. On June 27, the U.S. ethylene market was $572 / ton. Recently, the U.S. ethylene market has been stable with average demand. As of the 27th, the domestic ethylene market price was around 7900 yuan / ton. Manufacturers’ shipping atmosphere was light, and the main force maintained a cautious offer.

As for calcium carbide, as of the 27th, the average ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers of calcium carbide was 3833.33 yuan / ton. Within 7 days, the factory price of calcium carbide manufacturers fell slightly. The price of raw material blue carbon fell slightly, the cost support of calcium carbide weakened, but the downstream PVC market fell slightly, the downstream demand weakened, and the power for calcium carbide to rise was insufficient. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fall in a narrow range in early July.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

PVC analysts of business club believe that at present, PVC is in the off-season, domestic demand is weak, and market transactions are poor. The accumulated inventory is obvious, the market confidence is insufficient, the downstream is cautious in taking goods, and the operating rate is not high. It is expected that the PVC market will be weak and stable in the short term.

1、 Price data

As of June 26, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8701.00 yuan / ton, down 1.05% from 8793.25 yuan / ton on June 20. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8600-8700 yuan / ton.

As of June 26, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic locally refined straight run naphtha was 8400.00 yuan / ton, down 1.83% from 8556.67 yuan / ton on June 20. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight run naphtha was about 8400-8500 yuan / ton.

On June 26, the naphtha commodity index was 107.39, unchanged from yesterday, down 11.71% from the highest point 121.64 in the cycle (March 10, 2022), and up 154.24% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the local refining naphtha price fell at a high level, the international crude oil price fell, the naphtha market cost support was limited, the market mentality was pessimistic, the terminal demand was not significantly positive, and the refineries continued to reduce prices and actively shipped.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fell, the market returned to fundamentals, and the crude oil supply price was under tight support. However, affected by the expectation of interest rate hike by many central banks across the country, the market was worried about the economic recession, and the oil price was still fluctuating in the range. The US inflation in May exceeded expectations. The CPI soared to 8.6% year-on-year. The US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike of 75 basis points also set a record. The fear of further increasing the risk of global economic recession, coupled with the uncertainty of the epidemic, has led to major changes in market expectations. The dollar rose again, risky assets were sold off again, and the stock market, bulk commodities and other fields fell on a large scale. Crude oil bears the brunt. It is already at a relatively high level in history. Under the condition that the tight supply situation has not changed, the panic has dealt a heavy blow to the oil price.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business community, toluene continued to decline this week. On June 17, the price was 9060 yuan / ton, and on June 24, the price was 8570 yuan / ton, down 5.41% from last week. Mixed xylene continued its decline this week, and the price fell broadly. On June 17, the price was 8840 yuan / ton, and on June 24, the price was 8270 yuan / ton, down 6.45% from last week. In the PX market, the market price of paraxylene was stable this week. By the end of the week, the ex factory price of domestic paraxylene was 10900 yuan / ton, up 67.69% year-on-year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the energy analysts of business agency, the international crude oil price fell, the naphtha market cost support was limited, the market trading was cautious, the wait-and-see mood was strong, the terminal demand was not significantly good, and the refineries cut prices and shipped. It is expected that naphtha refining in the near future may decline slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business society, toluene continued to decline this week. On June 17, the price was 9060 yuan / ton, and on Friday (June 24), the price was 8570 yuan / ton, down 5.41% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 48.24%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil and the external market weakened, and the external news was poor. The PX market in the downstream of toluene weakened, the terminal demand was poor, the gasoline blending market continued to fall, the market demand was light, and the mentality of the operators was poor.

In terms of external trading, toluene in Asia fell violently this week. On Thursday (June 23), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was $1210 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of $45 / ton, or 3.59%.

In terms of crude oil, the expectation of tight global oil supply still exists, but the market is worried that the expectation of the Federal Reserve to significantly raise interest rates may lead to a recession in the U.S. economy, and crude oil fell this week. As of June 24, Brent’s price was flat this week compared with last week; WTI fell $1.94/barrel, or 1.77%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China rose continuously this week. On June 17, the price was 17325 yuan / ton, and on June 24, the price was 17700 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.16% over last week and 28.26% over the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On Friday (June 24), the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 10900 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 67.69% compared with the same period last year. As of the 23rd, the closing price in Asia was USD 1275 / T FOB Korea and USD 1293 / T CFR China

In terms of gasoline, the gasoline price in Shandong fell violently this week. On June 17, the price was 9516.8 yuan / ton, and on June 24, the price was 9157 yuan / ton, down 3.78% from last week and up 15.57% from the same period last year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In terms of crude oil, crude oil is playing a long and short game. The expectation of tight supply and demand growth give support to the oil price. The expectation of interest rate hikes in many countries drag down the economy, but the short-term oil price is still high. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions, etc. on crude oil prices.

The trend of crude oil is full of uncertainty, toluene in the external market still has a downward trend, and the trend of domestic toluene returns to the demand side. The downstream demand is poor, the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and toluene may continue to weaken. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise steadily this week. On June 23, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 460000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.66% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on June 19, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 457000 yuan / ton). On June 23, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 478000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.63% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on June 19, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 475000 yuan / ton).

According to the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate still increased this week. At present, the production performance of upstream manufacturers is stable, and the market is more active in lithium carbonate inquiry, but there are few zero order transactions, mainly for just in need purchase. With the optimistic market recovery after the outbreak, the lithium carbonate market is very expensive.

The price of downstream lithium hydroxide is stable, the price of upstream spodumene is high, and the price of upstream lithium carbonate is rising steadily, which supports the price support mentality of manufacturers. The supply side is mainly stable, the downstream procurement demand is average, the inventory is mainly digested, the market transaction is flat, and the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market price is stable.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream is running smoothly. At present, the supply of the manufacturer is still tight, and the supply is obviously insufficient. The contract customers are mainly responsible for arranging orders and delivering goods, and the number of new orders is limited. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, and the price remains high. The price in the upstream is still high, and the price continues to rise. The cost pressure of lithium iron phosphate remains.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business club, due to the high price of lithium carbonate, the willingness of the downstream market to receive goods is not strong, and the overall market has strong game sentiment. They mostly take a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the short-term price of lithium carbonate will be temporarily stable.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of June 22, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 4533.33 yuan / ton, down 3.55% compared with last Wednesday (June 15), 29.17% compared with May 22, and 17.07% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently, the market price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid fell. In the recent period, the price of upstream products has been mainly adjusted and operated, the price of main raw material methanol has fallen, the cost side is generally supported, the supply side is mainly stable, and the downstream is mostly off-season. The enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement is not high, the demand side performance is not good, the enterprise is under pressure to ship, and the wait-and-see operation is carried out after the price of 85% formic acid weakens.

In terms of cost: upstream caustic soda, the price of caustic soda shall be adjusted and operated, downstream shall be purchased on demand, and it is comprehensively estimated that it will be mainly adjusted in the later stage; On June 21, the reference price of upstream liquid ammonia was 4873.33, a decrease of 7.88% compared with that on June 1 (5290.00); Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price was temporarily stable on June 21; As for upstream methanol, according to the monitoring data of shanghaishe, on June 21, the reference price of methanol was 2705.00, up 3.34% compared with that on June 1 (2617.50). On June 21, the ex factory quotation of methanol enterprises in Shandong was lowered.

According to the formic acid analysts of business agency, the main raw material methanol is weak, the cost support is limited, the supply side has not changed, and the demand side is light. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may be under pressure.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of June 21, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 18900.00 yuan / ton, up 0.89% compared with the price on June 15, up 1.07% compared with the price on May 21, and down 2.24% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently, the market quotation of epichlorohydrin is mainly stable, and the prices of some enterprises are adjusted. Recently, the raw material propylene market is weak, the cost support is weakened, some units are shut down for maintenance, and the market supply is reduced, but the downstream demand is poor, the buying atmosphere is light, and the epichlorohydrin price is stable and waiting for adjustment.

The upstream propylene, according to the monitoring data of business news agency, the reference price of propylene was 7938.25 on June 20, a decrease of 1.76% compared with June 1 (8080.60).

For downstream epoxy resin, on June 20, the reference price of epoxy resin was 23675.00, a decrease of 6.97% compared with June 1 (25450.00).

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, the current supply side has certain support, the cost side support is weak, and the lack of follow-up on the demand side drags down the market. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may be weak in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, as of June 19, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil was 6690.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 2.20% from 6546.00 yuan / ton on June 13.

On June 19, the fuel oil commodity index was 135.49, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a new high in the cycle, up 194.03% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The price of international crude oil fell, the bidding price of domestic asphalt and Fukuang shale oil rose, and the cost of ship fuel market supported the price rise. According to the business news agency, as of June 19, the price of 180CST self raised low sulfur fuel oil and 120cst self raised low sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan was 6700 yuan / ton and 6800 yuan / ton respectively; The price of 180CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 6700 yuan / ton, and the price of 120cst self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6800 yuan / ton.

The decline in international crude oil prices is mainly due to the resonance impact of the general decline in the stock market and bulk commodities. Bulk commodity prices are generally at historical highs. Once the market is in trouble, a broad shock correction is inevitable. However, the fundamentals in key areas such as crude oil and agricultural products have not been reversed. In particular, the Russian Ukrainian war has led to tight supply. Therefore, it is expected that it will take time to peak or reverse the downward trend.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, supporting fuel oil prices. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of June 15, Singapore’s fuel oil storage fell by 1.228 million barrels to a four week low of 21.194 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate oil inventory soared by 1.167 million barrels, hitting an 8-week high of 7.958 million barrels. Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory increased by 691000 barrels, reaching a 15 month high of 15.812 million barrels.

Future forecast: the price of raw materials in the domestic ship fuel market is high, the bidding price of asphalt and Fukuang shale oil is rising, and the cost support price in the ship fuel market is rising, but the market terminal demand is weak, the receiving of goods is limited, and the overall transaction in the market is light. At present, the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST is about 6700 yuan / ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120cst is about 6800 yuan / ton. It is a single discussion. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be mainly consolidated in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, aniline was stable and small this week. On June 10, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12500 yuan / ton; On June 17, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12500 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 29.23% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

On the cost side, pure benzene: crude oil and pure benzene in the outer disk fell broadly, and the external information guidance weakened. The centralized maintenance period of domestic pure benzene enterprises is coming to an end, and Jiujiang Petrochemical’s new pure benzene capacity is put into operation; East China port inventory showed signs of warming, and the supply side increased. Downstream styrene and other products lost profits. Under the pressure of cost, some units were shut down and reduced in demand. Multiple negative drag, pure benzene fell this week. On Friday (June 17), the price of pure benzene was 9400-10000 yuan / ton (the average price was 9851 yuan / ton), which was 1.34% lower than last week and 27.1% higher than the same period last year.

Nitric acid: domestic nitric acid rose this week. On June 10, the domestic production price of nitric acid was 2800 yuan / ton, and on June 17, it was 2883.33 yuan / ton. The price increased by 2.98% compared with last week and 25.36% compared with the same period last year.

Pure benzene continued to weaken, but the price was still at a high level. The price of nitric acid rose, and the cost pressure of aniline remained. The price followed the price of raw materials. At present, the inventory level of aniline enterprises is normal, the factory mainly delivers goods, and the demand is normal.

3、 Aftermarket expectation

On the cost side, in terms of pure benzene, the supply increases and the demand weakens. It is expected that pure benzene will still fall.

In terms of nitric acid, the recent shipment of nitric acid is good, and the price of nitric acid is expected to rise.

Pure benzene may still fall, and aniline’s profit margin may increase; The downstream gas buying is acceptable, and the trend of aniline is expected to be stable. Pay attention to the trend of raw materials, downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline prices.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the PC market fell this week, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of June 16, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of business club was about 20183.33 yuan / ton, up or down -3.43% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the domestic bisphenol a market continued to be weak this week, and the price continued to fall. The current sluggish terminal demand is the main negative factor in the market. With the increase of inventory, the pressure on the goods holders and factories accumulates, and the shipment is slow. At present, the cost side is acceptable, the goods holders follow the market, and the business community expects a short-term weak adjustment.

The upstream bisphenol a market weakened, and the PC cost side support was cut. In terms of industry load, the domestic PC enterprises’ load was sideways this week. In the early stage, the supply side was pressured due to the resumption of some units in western Shandong, which was difficult to support the price. At present, the main benefit in the market is that the international crude oil in the far upstream also fell due to the influence of the Federal Reserve in the second half of the week. The downstream demand is weak, the operating rate of terminal enterprises is limited due to various factors, and the goods taking situation is poor. The impact of domestic health incidents on some parts of East China is gradually decreasing, but some transportation recovery is still slow. The venue has gradually entered the off-season pattern, with small orders taking the lead, buyers’ mentality of buying up but not buying down spreading, merchants’ confidence is not strong, and offer to make profits on the market.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the business analysts, the domestic PC market fell this week, the upstream bisphenol a market weakened, and the cost side’s support effect on PC weakened. On the supply side, there is abundant supply of goods on the floor, on the demand side, spot trading is relatively light, and the actual trading volume on the floor is insufficient. It is expected that the spot price may continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1690 yuan / ton on June 6, and 1646 yuan / ton on June 10. The price of ammonium sulfate fell by 2.55% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate fell this week. At present, the trading atmosphere on the floor is flat, and the new orders are generally traded. In order to relieve the shipping pressure, ammonium sulfate enterprises have lowered their prices. Downstream purchases are mainly on demand, which is inconsistent with high prices. The bidding price of ammonium sulfate was lowered this week, and some caprolactam enterprises were overhauled. As of June 10, the main factory price of coking ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1550 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is about 1500 yuan / ton. For power plant grade ammonium sulfate, the factory quotation of mainstream ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1575 yuan / ton. The mainstream factory quotation of Hexian ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1670 yuan / ton.

The market price of downstream compound fertilizer continued to be high this week. As the price of raw materials continues to rise, the cost support is strong, and the compound fertilizer market is strong. This week, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises decreased, and most enterprises’ quotations were suspended. Dealers take goods carefully, and the trend of compound fertilizer market is still dominant in the short term.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The ammonium sulphate analysts of the business agency believe that the price of ammonium sulphate has fallen from the high level after rising in the early stage. At present, domestic demand is general, there is no good news on the floor, and the export market is weak. The downstream is cautious in taking goods, and the manufacturer’s quotation is lowered to reduce inventory. It is expected that in the short term, the price of ammonium sulfate will fall in a weak and volatile manner.