1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda at the beginning of the week was 1940 yuan/ton, and the average market price of baking soda at the weekend was 1911 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.49. On August 25th, the baking soda commodity index was 126.84, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 46.22% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 43.70% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is declining, with a factory price of around 1400-1500 yuan/ton. Due to poor downstream demand, it is expected to operate weakly in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The current average market price is 1810 yuan/ton.

Business analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been weak recently, and the upstream raw material soda ash has been weak recently. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. It is expected that the price of baking soda will be weak in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has declined. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3437.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72% from the early week price of 3462.5 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 9.78%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and low fluorite inventory

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The rectification action is coming to an end in August, but the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of starting fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. However, the import of fluorite from Mongolia has a significant impact on the northern fluorite market, and the trend of fluorite.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid demand, weak refrigerant, low operating level

Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market has fluctuated at a low level, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China is negotiated at 10500-11000 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market is consolidating weakly, with some units still being shut down recently. There is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, and manufacturers have low orders for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. The overall production of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%, which has dragged down the domestic fluorite market. Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase on demand, and the domestic fluorite market is sluggish.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal continues to be deadlocked due to poor demand transmission. After entering the off-season of production, market production demand weakens. In addition, refrigerant companies have poor stocking conditions and are not actively purchasing upstream products. The market for some refrigerant products has declined, and as a result, the fluorite market is weak and difficult to change.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense, nuclear industry, etc., including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market is still supported.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market trend has declined, and the demand for downstream refrigerants has weakened. In addition, imported fluorite sources have formed a certain impact on the market, and there are many negative factors. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that fluorite prices will fluctuate at a low level in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 19th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 2263 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31% from the reference average price of 2293 yuan/ton on August 13th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

The domestic urea market prices have fallen this week. As of August 19th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 2020-2045 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 2050 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 2040 yuan/ton, and in Hubei region it is around 2035 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, both supply and demand in the urea market have been weak. On the supply side, the urea market supply decreased this week compared to last week. In terms of demand, there has been a decrease in agricultural and industrial demand, with a focus on maintaining essential needs. Downstream compound fertilizers and melamine have stable operating rates and market conditions, and are cautious in purchasing urea, often purchasing at low prices.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of the urea market is weak and downward, and the market is not optimistic. In the absence of an increase in demand, it is expected that the domestic urea market prices will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China maintained stable operation this week. As of August 16th, the average market price in East China was 14100 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of 14100 yuan/ton on August 16th. There was no increase or decrease during the week, but a year-on-year decrease of 25.27%.

This week, the TDI market is in a state of consolidation and operation, and the market is in a stalemate. The enterprise quotation follows the market trend, and the sales situation is average. The downstream wait-and-see attitude is obvious. In order to stimulate sales, there are signs of loosening in the TDI market, and the actual transaction center has slightly shifted downwards.

The upstream toluene market continues to decline, and the overall market atmosphere is bearish, putting pressure on the price of toluene to decline. On the supply side, with the increase of port cargo, the supply is relatively loose, and the overall negative impact on the market is significant. Recently, prices have continued to decline.

In terms of future analysis, the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current TDI market trading is stable, and the supply side benefits have been exhausted. There is currently no new positive support in the market, and it is expected that the TDI market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of domestic polyester filament has declined this week. Currently, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, POY (150D/48F), offer prices of 7600-7800 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity), offer prices of 9100-9400 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F), offer prices of 8100-8300 yuan/ton.

In early August, the polyester factory began a new round of promotions, with prices for polyester filament reduced compared to before, offering discounts ranging from 100-200 yuan/ton. The increase in inventory pressure in polyester factories is the most important reason for promotions, as the overall inventory in the polyester market is concentrated between 11-24 days. Secondly, in terms of raw materials, the PTA internal price has dropped from the highest point of 6110 yuan/ton to the current 5600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 510 yuan/ton; The internal price of ethylene glycol has dropped from the highest of 4820 yuan/ton to the current 4596 yuan/ton, a decrease of 224 yuan/ton. The decline in raw material prices has provided polyester factories with greater profit margins, which has also prompted them to lower prices and offer discounts.

Overall, the recent market trend of polyester filament has shown a downward adjustment in prices, and the future development of the market will be influenced by various factors, including raw material prices, market supply and demand, export situation, and policy environment.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the average price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market was 15783.33 yuan last Friday, and 15816.67 yuan/ton this Friday, with a price increase of 0.21%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market has remained stable with small fluctuations. The price of titanium concentrate on raw materials has slightly increased, while the price of sulfuric acid has remained stable. The production cost pressure of titanium dioxide is still significant due to the influence of raw materials. This week, Longqi has a large number of orders on hand, with a slight increase in new order quotes. Most manufacturers’ quotes are mainly stable. Traders’ quotations are relatively flexible, with prices fluctuating on the market, and overall the volatility is relatively small. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 15400-16300 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14200-15000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region has slightly increased. At present, the spot market is still tight, and the price of titanium ore is running at a high level. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises are generally in the market, and they are more cautious about titanium concentrate, with a focus on urgent needs and cautious procurement. As of now, the price of 38-42 grade titanium ore without tax is around 1620-1650 yuan/ton, the price of 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2280-2300 yuan/ton, and the price of 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2400-2500 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate continues to operate at a high level, and the specific transaction price will be discussed on a case by case basis.

3、 Future forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market has remained stable with small fluctuations this week, and trading on the market is relatively flexible. This week, the price of titanium concentrate has risen, the price of sulfuric acid remains high and firm, and the cost pressure of titanium dioxide is significant. Downstream market demand is not good, so we should wait and see, and be cautious in transactions. In the short term, the market is mainly stable, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of PET water bottles has slightly rebounded this month, and the volatile operation shows a certain downward trend. As of July 31st, the average price of PET water bottle grade is 7130 yuan/ton.

Raw material market: On July 30th, Brent crude oil benchmark price was $79.05 per barrel. Compared to $85.26 per barrel at the beginning of this month, it has decreased by -7.28%. The WTI crude oil benchmark price is $74.73 per barrel. Compared to the $81.74 per barrel at the beginning of this month, it has decreased by -8.57%.

The price of ethylene glycol was relatively strong in the first half of July, and then began to decline slightly. Currently, the price is beginning to digest sideways. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4640 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.729% compared to the average price of 4561.67 yuan/ton in the East China market on July 1st. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the driving effect of inventory factors on prices in the early stage is weakening under the expected increase in imports. Currently, inventory levels are relatively low, which provides some support for prices; In terms of demand, downstream polyester is reducing production to maintain prices, coupled with lower than expected terminal demand in the weaving industry, the industry is weak, and demand is weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market surged and fell back in July. The market is generally concerned about weak demand for crude oil, and European and American crude oil futures fell to the lowest level in six weeks. The weak fundamentals and downward cost support have dragged down PTA cost support and dragged down market quotes. As of the end of July, the operating rate of the domestic PTA industry was around 82%. In August, there were still many restarts of PTA plants in China, and the utilization rate of PTA production capacity will further improve. The expectation of a rebound in PTA supply is obvious. At present, there is almost no official announcement of the August maintenance plan for PTA large plants, and the implementation of the downstream polyester factory production reduction plan has led to the expectation of weak PTA demand, resulting in inventory accumulation for PTA in August.

On the supply and demand side, some sources of goods are still tight, and there is still some support on the supply side. Holders of goods should be cautious in shipping at low prices.

The PET analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current bottle grade PET market is generally stable with small fluctuations, and compared to the raw material side, it shows strong resilience against downturns. It is expected that the market will remain within a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term. However, the actual evolution of this pattern will closely depend on the dynamic changes in the raw material market and the implementation of subsequent production equipment maintenance plans. Specifically, fluctuations in raw material prices and the implementation of maintenance plans will become key factors affecting the future trend of the PET market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic BDO market experienced narrow fluctuations in July. From July 1st to 30th, the average price of BDO in China first rose from 9035 yuan/ton and then fell to 8942 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.03% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 18.54%.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic BDO market was deadlocked and negotiations were slow. There are many maintenance and replacement devices, and the market supply of goods has decreased. Production enterprises mainly have the intention to maintain prices. Downstream on-demand procurement, and the main downstream PTMEG market is declining. The industry is adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude, and the market trading focus is temporarily stable

In mid month, the domestic BDO market operated weakly, with contract orders trading and light spot negotiations. Recently, the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry has decreased, the supply of spot goods in the market has decreased, and the supply side’s stable market mentality continues. But the actual demand downstream is average, and the export price of new production capacity is relatively low. The overall market situation is deadlocked due to the game between supply and demand.

At the end of the month, the domestic BDO market was weak and deadlocked, approaching the settlement cycle, with a mainly cautious and wait-and-see attitude. Follow up on urgent orders downstream of the terminal, the game between supply and demand continues, and the market trading center is deadlocked.

As the end of the month approaches, the domestic BDO market has shifted downwards, with light trading volume in spot orders. The actual follow-up of downstream terminals is average, and the purchasing and sales mentality of operators is bearish, with sporadic small spot orders negotiated for discounts, resulting in a downward shift in the market price range.

Supply side: In terms of equipment, the Shaanxi Black Cat equipment stopped and replaced the agent, but after some maintenance equipment was restarted in the early stage, the negative operation increased. The market supply of goods showed an increasing trend, and the positive support from the supply side weakened. The impact of favorable factors on the BDO supply side has weakened.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The maintenance of some PVC enterprises in Inner Mongolia has led to an increase in external sales of calcium carbide, and some enterprises have experienced an increase in load. The overall market supply is sufficient, and the calcium carbide market has narrowly declined. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market was mainly weak and volatile in July, and the BDO cost side was affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, downstream industries such as PTMEG spandex, PBT, and PBAT have seen a decline in market conditions, with most downstream terminals experiencing losses in profits. Under cost pressure, there is a bargaining sentiment towards raw material inventory. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

Future predictions indicate that most maintenance equipment will restart, leading to a significant increase in market supply and weak support from the supply side. Although the main downstream PTMEG maintenance equipment has also restarted, other downstream operations are average, with limited increase in raw material digestion and intensified pressure on the supply and demand sides. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market will mainly operate weakly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak and fluctuating recently (July 17-July 29). As of July 29, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 14011 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50% from 14082 yuan/ton on July 17, with a peak of 14223 yuan/ton during the cycle. On the one hand, raw material prices have slightly decreased, and on the other hand, downstream production has decreased, and there is resistance to high priced sources of goods. The overall market is in a weak consolidation state.

On the one hand, in recent days (7.17-7.29), there has been a certain increase in the supply of raw materials from domestic and foreign raw material production areas. The price of natural rubber raw materials has slightly decreased, and the cost has weakened in the face of the domestic natural rubber market support. As of July 26th, the price of Thai glue was 63.00 baht/kg, slightly lower than the price in mid July; As of the 29th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas was around 13400 yuan/ton, slightly lower than the price in mid July.

On the other hand, the speed of natural rubber inventory turnover has slowed down. As of July 21, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 476100 tons, a decrease of 0.38% compared to the previous period.

Downstream all steel tire production has slightly decreased, and demand has weakened due to the weak support of the natural rubber market. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, resulting in a slight drop in natural rubber prices. As of July 24th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.4%.

Market forecast: Currently, the supply of raw materials at home and abroad is gradually increasing, and the price of natural rubber raw materials is slightly falling; In addition, downstream tire companies have seen a slight decrease in production and are cautious about purchasing high priced goods; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will consolidate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic isopropanol market fluctuated and fell this week. On Monday, the average price of isopropanol in China was 8450 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 8380 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 0.83% during the week.

This week, the domestic isopropanol market fluctuated and fell. On Wednesday, the propylene process unit of Zhejiang Xinhua was shut down for maintenance, resulting in a slight increase in on-site prices in Jiangsu. Prices have fallen again over the weekend. Overall, the market performance is average, with a strong wait-and-see attitude within the market. Downstream inquiries are average, and there is a strong need to purchase goods. Actual orders are cautious. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 8200-8350 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 8500-8600 yuan/ton, while in the South China region, the price is around 8775 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the market price of acetone has fallen this week. The average price of acetone on Monday was 7742.5 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 7450 yuan/ton. Overall, the price decreased by 3.78%. At present, the fundamentals of acetone continue to decline, and traders are actively shipping at low prices. Downstream factories purchase according to demand, and it is expected that the short-term acetone price in the East China market will be between 7300-7400 yuan/ton.

In terms of propylene, the propylene market fell first and then rose this week. On Monday, the average domestic propylene price was 7145.75 yuan/ton, and on Friday, the average price was 7140.75 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 0.07%. At present, the inventory of enterprises is low and there is no pressure. Downstream purchases are made according to demand, and it is expected that the market will experience slight fluctuations and consolidation in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the isopropanol market price has fluctuated and fallen this week. The acetone market is declining, while the propylene market prices are fluctuating and consolidating, with average cost support. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average, with a focus on essential needs. It is expected that the isopropanol market will operate weakly in the short term.