According to the monitoring data of the business club, as of June 13, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 5716 yuan / ton. Compared with June 10, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 5616 yuan / ton), the price increased by 100 yuan / ton, or 1.78%. Compared with June 1, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 5350 yuan / ton), the price increased by 366 yuan / ton, or 6.85%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that in June, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market as a whole showed a steady upward trend. In this week, the market of dimethyl carbonate has been moving upward again. The increase in foreign trade orders has supported the upward movement of the market focus of dimethyl carbonate. In addition, the overall performance of the demand side has been improved in the steady resumption of work in the downstream. The inventory of dimethyl carbonate in the yard is low, and some factories arrange orders for sales. The sales pressure is small, and the atmosphere of price support is gradually rising. On June 13, the prices of some dimethyl carbonate factories were strongly increased by about 100-300 yuan / ton, The ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate is around 5700 yuan / ton, and the price of the higher end is around 5800-6000 yuan / ton. At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate is good, and the supply and demand transmission is smooth.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, on June 13, the domestic propylene oxide Market moved downward as a whole. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of June 13, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 11266.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.15% compared with June 1 (11633.33 yuan / ton). Recently, the raw material propylene market fell, the cost support weakened, the supply side was mainly stable, the downstream demand was cold, the factory inventory was controllable and the price was raised. The market trading atmosphere was general, and the market was running smoothly. With the downstream reduction follow-up, the market was gradually under pressure, and the price stalemate weakened.

Future trend analysis

At present, the operating rate of the on-site supply side of dimethyl carbonate is generally low, the on-site supply has decreased, and the supply side has also given some support to the market in the short term. The DMC data analyst of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is more stable and more stable, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the supply and demand side.

Cobalt price stopped falling and rebounded this week

According to the monitoring data of the business club, the cobalt market rebounded and adjusted this week, and the cobalt price stopped falling and rebounded. As of June 13, the cobalt price was 433700 yuan / ton, up 0.56% from 431300 yuan / ton on June 6 at the beginning of the week; Compared with the cobalt price of 445500 yuan / ton on June 1, it fell by 2.65%. This week, the cobalt price stopped falling and rebounded, and the cobalt market recovered.

Sales volume of new energy vehicles recovered

According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles in May were 466000 and 447000 respectively, with a month on month growth of 49.5% and 49.6% and a year-on-year growth of 1.1 times. From January to may, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles reached 2.071 million and 2.003 million respectively, an increase of 1.1 times year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles rose sharply on a month on month basis, the new energy vehicle market recovered, the demand of cobalt market recovered, the downward pressure of cobalt Market weakened, and the upward momentum increased.

Increase in ternary battery output

In terms of output, in May, China’s power battery output totaled 35.6gwh, up 157.9% year-on-year and 22.8% month on month. Among them, the output of ternary battery was 16.3gwh, accounting for 45.8% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 225.7% and a month on month increase of 58.2%; The output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 19.2gwh, accounting for 54.1% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 119.4% and a month on month increase of 3.3%. In terms of loading volume, China’s power battery loading volume reached 18.6gwh in May, with a year-on-year increase of 90.3% and a month on month increase of 39.9%. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 8.3gwh, accounting for 44.7% of the total, with a year-on-year increase of 59.0% and a month on month increase of 90.3%; The loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery was 10.2gwh, accounting for 55.1% of the total, with a year-on-year increase of 126.5% and a month on month increase of 15.1%. At present, lithium iron phosphate still leads the ternary battery in terms of output and loading volume, but the ternary battery has narrowed the gap with the market share of lithium iron phosphate in April. As more high-end consumer brands enter the new energy vehicle market, the utilization rate of ternary batteries will be improved. In addition, many plug-in hybrid and incremental models will also choose ternary batteries with higher energy density, which will help the growth of ternary battery output and loading volume. The output of ternary battery increases, the demand of cobalt market increases, and the momentum of cobalt market increases.

Market Overview

Baijiaxin, a data analyst of the business agency, believes that in May, the production and sales of the new energy automobile industry chain rose, the installed capacity and proportion of ternary batteries rose, the demand of the cobalt market recovered, and the upward momentum of cobalt prices increased and the downward pressure weakened. However, the international cobalt price has continued to fall sharply, the supply of cobalt raw materials has risen steadily, the current situation of supply exceeding demand in the cobalt market has not fundamentally changed, and the space for cobalt price rise is limited. Generally speaking, the demand of the cobalt market has warmed up, the decline of the cobalt price has been blocked, the oversupply of the cobalt market has not fundamentally changed, and the space for the rise of the cobalt price is limited. It is expected that the cobalt price will fluctuate strongly and stabilize in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the price of pure benzene rose continuously this week, with the price exceeding 10000 yuan. On June 2, the price of pure benzene was 8850-9300 yuan / ton (average price: 9167 yuan / ton). On Friday (June 10), the price of pure benzene was 9900-10050 yuan / ton (average price: 9984 yuan / ton). The average price increased by 8.91% compared with last week and 28% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Pure benzene rose strongly this week. External factors: recent strong rise in international crude oil and strong cost support. In addition, due to the strong increase in gasoline demand in the United States, a large number of toluene and xylene are required to invest in gasoline components, the disproportionation consumption is sharply reduced, the output of by-product pure benzene is significantly reduced, and the price of pure benzene in meijinpan is rising, driving the rise of pure benzene in Asia. Positive external news gave strong support to the domestic pure benzene market. Domestic factors: due to the high external price, the import of pure benzene in East China ports decreased, and the inventory continued to drop to 48000 tons. The lack of deliverable inventory led to strong short selling sentiment, and the prices in some parts of East China continued to rise. In the early stage of the main refinery, due to production cost factors, the output of pure benzene decreased and the price remained high. With multiple positive effects, pure benzene exceeded 10000 yuan.

This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 700 yuan / ton to 10000 yuan / ton.

In terms of external trading, Asian pure benzene rose in a wide range this week. On Thursday (June 9), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was $1452 / ton, up $91 / ton year-on-year, or 6.69%; The reference import price in East China was USD 1445 / T, with a year-on-year increase of USD 95 / T or 7.04%.

In terms of crude oil, due to the arrival of the peak driving season in the United States, driving demand growth, as well as the tightening of supply expectations under the background of Western sanctions against Russia, this week’s rise was dominated. As of June 10, Brent rose $2.29 per barrel, or 1.91%; WTI rose $1.8/barrel, or 1.51%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene rose broadly this week. The price was 10381.43 yuan / ton on June 2 and 11100 yuan / ton on June 10, up 6.92% from last week and 22.43% from the same period last year. The continuous rise of crude oil price has raised the prices of pure benzene and ethylene, resulting in the rise of styrene cost. There are many styrene enterprises in the site with equipment maintenance and supply reduction, which is conducive to the rise of styrene market. Styrene market transactions were acceptable, and spot prices continued to rise.

Aniline: boosted by the positive cost side, aniline rose continuously this week. On June 10, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12500 yuan / ton, up 5.51% over last week and 30.64% over the same period last year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In terms of crude oil, the short-term oil price is still running at a high point, with little change in supply and demand fundamentals. Supply tightening expectations and demand growth support oil prices. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions, etc. on crude oil prices.

Downstream: the main downstream product styrene: the international crude oil market is still at a high level, and the downstream is generally in general mood to take over the high price styrene. The cost and pressure of styrene coexist. Generally speaking, if the raw material level rises next week, the styrene market will follow suit.

The short-term crude oil and the external market are still at a high level, and under the influence of the external market high price, the East China port will continue to maintain a low inventory state. However, under the pressure of high cost, economic production reduction in the downstream and the arrival of summer maintenance season for main products will lead to negative demand for pure benzene in the future. In general, pure benzene still operates at a high level, but there is no lack of callback possibility. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market price trends, domestic logistics and transportation, and the dynamics of pure benzene and downstream devices on prices.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the domestic PA66 market maintained a weak and stable decline in the first ten days of June, and the spot prices of various brands were mostly reduced. As of June 9, the ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of the business club was about 25000 yuan / ton on average, up or down by -2.91% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic adipic acid price fluctuates in a narrow range. On the demand side, the adipic acid trading is not ideal, the domestic supply is abundant, and the port arrival level is average, so the overall support effect on PA66 spot is limited.

The upstream raw material adipic acid market fluctuated, adiponitrile market was abundant, and PA66 cost side support was poor. In terms of industrial operating rate, due to the continuous pressure on the profits of PA66 enterprises, the load level of domestic PA66 industry has decreased recently, but on the whole, the range is limited. The spot supply in the market is abundant, and the supply pressure is difficult to solve. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. On the demand side, at present, the terminal enterprises tend to follow up with the goods to maintain production, and have strong resistance to the high price supply. Although the health incidents in East China have been greatly alleviated and the logistics situation in many places has gradually recovered, the demand of domestic downstream factories has shrunk, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the merchants have great resistance to shipment. The transaction on the floor declined, and the seller’s mentality was not good, so he continued to give up profits.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the analysts of business agency, the spot price of PA66 fell in early June. The market of adiponitrile at the raw material end fluctuated weakly, and the cost side support of PA66 was poor. The load of PA66 enterprises was reduced in a narrow range, the pattern of sufficient supply in the yard remained unchanged, and the inventory pressure of enterprises and midstream increased. The demand side is short of goods, so it is expected that PA66 will continue to be affected by the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, since the end of May, the domestic DDGS market has declined weakly, and the mainstream quotation has fallen below 2900 yuan / ton. On May 25, the average market price of domestic DDGS was 2940 yuan / ton. On June 8, the average market price of domestic DDGS was 2883 yuan / ton, down 1.93%.

Demand supports domestic DDGS market to continue to rise

Since the end of May, the demand for terminal aquatic feed has gradually weakened, the market transaction is general, the alcohol factories are not confident in raising prices, and they have lowered the DDGS ex factory prices one after another. The domestic DDGS market fell weakly, falling to 2900 yuan / ton, a drop of more than 1%. Since June, the domestic DDGS market continued to decline until after the Dragon Boat Festival, the domestic DDGS price fell to 2880 yuan / ton, a decrease of nearly 2%.

Li Bing, an agricultural product analyst at the business community, believes that: the demand for terminal aquatic feed has become weak, and the negative pressure has been exerted, and the domestic DDGS will still be weak and downward in the future.

In May, the domestic dimethyl ether Market weakened as a whole, and the price showed a trend of twists and turns. The overall fluctuation range of Henan market price was limited. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4215.00 yuan / ton on May 1, and 4100.00 yuan / ton on May 30, with a decrease of 2.73% in the month, a decrease of 1.36% compared with April 1.

As of May 30, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

Region, Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi region, 4270 yuan / ton

Hebei region, 4100 yuan / ton

Henan region, 4100 yuan / ton

In May, the overall trend of domestic dimethyl ether Market was weak, and the price of dimethyl ether in Henan market showed a downward upward downward trend. During the May Day holiday, affected by the poor delivery, the manufacturer lowered the ex factory price to make profit for delivery. Subsequently, the market price of raw methanol rebounded, and the price of civil gas, a related product, rose driven by crude oil, which brought obvious support to the market, and the price of dimethyl ether continued to rise slightly. However, by the end of the month, affected by the insufficient terminal demand, the dimethyl ether Market returned to a weak position again, and the price fell.

In May, the domestic methanol market was still depressed. Although the rebound of raw coal prices has been supported, the low price of imported goods and the stalemate of downstream negotiations have limited the fluctuation of methanol prices. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 2745 yuan / ton at the beginning of May, and 2617 yuan / ton at the end of May. The price fell by 4.64% during the month and 2.06% year-on-year.

At present, the market price of raw material methanol is weak, and the civil price of related products liquefied gas is adjusted in a narrow range, which brings limited support to the market. The overall market supply is low, and the manufacturer’s inventory is relatively controllable. However, with the arrival of the traditional off-season, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the downstream market entry enthusiasm is limited, which has significantly hindered the dimethyl ether Market. It is expected that the price of dimethyl ether market may continue to decline in June.

From May 27 to June 2, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China was temporarily stable. The price was 80000 yuan / ton last weekend and 80000 yuan / ton this weekend, flat.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the concept of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent upward trend of the antimony ingot Market around the Spring Festival entered a stable period in mid March, entered a downward channel in mid April, slowed down at the end of April and stabilized in May.

Price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe this week (unit: USD / ton)

varieties., May 27, June 2, Up and down

European small metal antimony, 13800.,13600.,- two hundred

This week, the price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe continued to decline, but the overall downward trend slowed down. As of June 2, the price was $13600 / ton, which was lowered by $200 / ton weekly, and the market atmosphere was still weak.

This week, the price of antimony ingots was temporarily stable after falling, the price was stable, the market sentiment was mostly bearish, the downstream demand was depressed, which affected the market mentality of antimony ingots. The fundamentals had little change in the near future, especially the downstream demand for antimony oxide had not been significantly improved, and the downstream price depression mentality was also strong. Although the smelting and refining plants had a strong price support mentality in the near future, it was difficult to release the downstream demand, and the overall market mentality was greatly affected. However, the downstream antimony oxide manufacturers purchase at a lower price, and the price of antimony ingots remains stable and weak.

Price trend of antimony oxide this week (unit: yuan / ton)

varieties., May 27, June 2, Up and down

99.5% antimony trioxide, 69500.,69500., 0

99.8% antimony trioxide, 71500.,71500., 0

This week, the domestic antimony oxide market price was temporarily stable, but the overall market sales situation was still weak, and the support for antimony ingots was limited.

The supply and demand side dragged down, and the price of chloroform fell sharply in May. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of May 31, the price of chloroform apron in Shandong was 3350 yuan / ton, down 38.95% from 5487 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Since May, the start-up of domestic methane chloride plant has been raised to around 80-90%. Jinling unit in Shandong operates at 90% load, Dongyue unit operates at full load, Luxi unit operates at 80% load, and the start-up of Liwen, Meilan, Juhua and other enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is at the same high level. In addition, Dongying Huatai’s new 160000 T / a methane chloride unit in the last phase is planned to be put into operation in the near future, which further increases the domestic supply pressure.

In May, the spot price of raw methanol decreased slightly, and the cost side weakened slightly. According to the business agency, as of May 31, the price of methanol was 2617 yuan / ton, down 4.64% from 2745 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The production and sales of air conditioners are shrinking, and the demand for refrigerant is insufficient. The start-up of refrigerant R22 plant continues to be low, and the demand side is weak.

Future forecast: the analysts of the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the overall chloroform market is weak due to the lower cost and weaker downstream demand. However, after the sharp decline in May, the risk of chloroform decline is gradually reduced. It is expected that the price of chloroform will be weak and volatile in the later period.

The supply and demand side dragged down, and the price of chloroform fell sharply in May. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of May 31, the price of chloroform apron in Shandong was 3350 yuan / ton, down 38.95% from 5487 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Since May, the start-up of domestic methane chloride plant has been raised to around 80-90%. Jinling unit in Shandong operates at 90% load, Dongyue unit operates at full load, Luxi unit operates at 80% load, and the start-up of Liwen, Meilan, Juhua and other enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is at the same high level. In addition, Dongying Huatai’s new 160000 T / a methane chloride unit in the last phase is planned to be put into operation in the near future, which further increases the domestic supply pressure.

In May, the spot price of raw methanol decreased slightly, and the cost side weakened slightly. According to the business agency, as of May 31, the price of methanol was 2617 yuan / ton, down 4.64% from 2745 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The production and sales of air conditioners are shrinking, and the demand for refrigerant is insufficient. The start-up of refrigerant R22 plant continues to be low, and the demand side is weak.

Future forecast: the analysts of the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the overall chloroform market is weak due to the lower cost and weaker downstream demand. However, after the sharp decline in May, the risk of chloroform decline is gradually reduced. It is expected that the price of chloroform will be weak and volatile in the later period.

On June 1, the price of raw material dissolving pulp was expected to rise, and the comprehensive cost remained high. Some viscose staple fiber manufacturers raised their offer by 300-500 yuan / ton. Some manufacturers maintained their early quotations, and some even offered 16000 yuan / ton. However, the actual negotiation space was different according to the order, and the consignment atmosphere was deadlocked. The price of cotton yarn is stable, the shipment is general, the downstream orders are limited, and the yarn inventory is still large.

Trend chart of viscose staple fiber price

According to the price monitoring of the business club, as of June 1, 2022, the ex factory quotation of 1.2d*38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 15500 yuan / ton, 280 yuan / ton higher than yesterday’s price, a daily increase of 1.84%. The average ex factory price of cotton yarn (30s, ring spinning, first-class product) is 19100 yuan / ton, and the price is stable.

Supply and demand market

Recently, the overseas market is good, the domestic market trading atmosphere is general, the supply of viscose staple fiber remains in a tight balance, and the inventory is relatively fast. However, the price of conductive viscose staple fiber in the yarn factory is limited, the terminal demand has not improved, and the downstream orders are limited. At present, the stock of finished human cotton yarn is accumulated, local logistics is not smooth, the spot delivery of the yarn factory is still blocked, and the price negotiation is high.

Aftermarket forecast

Recently, foreign dissolving pulp devices have changed greatly and the supply has been continuously tight. There is still room for the rising of dissolving pulp, the cost has been pushed up, and it is difficult for viscose staple fiber factories to make concessions. However, the demand for textile terminals continues to be flat, difficult to improve, and the trading has always been general. Analysts from the business community predict that the price of viscose staple fiber will be stable, medium and strong, running at a high level.