From June 24 to July 1, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene increased slightly, from 7777 yuan / ton last weekend to 7805 yuan / ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.36%.

On June 30, the price of international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $105.76 / barrel, down $4.02 or 3.7%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $109.03 / barrel, down $3.42 or 3.04%. The main reason was that the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (opec+) confirmed that its production increase in August was consistent with the previously announced increase, and the supply tension was expected to ease slightly, and the oil price was under pressure.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

June 6, 9500.,+200

June 8, 9700.,+200

June 10, 10000.,+300

June 22, 9800.,-200

June 27, 9600.,-200

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene was reduced by 200 yuan / ton on June 27, 2022, and 9600 yuan / ton was implemented.

Other enterprises: Jingbo Petrochemical quote 9350 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical quote 9300 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical quote 9353 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quote 9400 yuan / ton, Hongrun Petrochemical quote 9450 yuan / ton.

This week, the hydrogenated benzene market fluctuated, and the overall price increased slightly. Boosted by the strong crude oil and styrene prices at the beginning of the week, the domestic pure benzene market operated strongly at the beginning of the week, and the market performed well. Later, as crude oil and styrene weakened, Sinopec lowered its listing price by 200 yuan / ton, putting downward pressure on the pure benzene market. The trend of benzene hydrogenation enterprises was basically stable in the first half of the week, and the price was slightly corrected in the second half of the week due to the weakness of pure benzene. As of the weekend, crude oil continued to be under pressure, the focus of pure benzene market negotiation fell, and the market price fell again. The domestic price of pure benzene was 9250-9600 yuan / ton. On the whole, although there are many negative factors in the pure benzene market at present, the downstream demand starts to release with the price of pure benzene falling, and the sales of pure benzene is acceptable. Fundamental crude oil is still in a high consolidation trend, and it is expected that pure benzene prices will remain in a high consolidation trend, with limited downward space, boosted by demand.

The crude benzene market maintained a high consolidation trend this week. Shandong implemented 7880-7885 yuan / ton, an increase of 10 yuan / ton compared with last week. The fluctuations in other domestic regions this week were relatively small, and the overall concentration was 10-50 yuan / ton. In terms of coking enterprises, the recent sharp decline in coke has affected the profits of coking enterprises. Coking enterprises have taken the initiative to limit production. At present, the general production limit is about 30%, and the supply of crude benzene is reduced compared with the previous period. Boosted by the reduction in output, although the basic market this week is slightly under pressure, the bidding price of crude benzene this week remains high and volatile. In the future, the business news agency believes that although the downstream hydrogenation benzene enterprises have suffered losses recently and have some resistance to high priced crude benzene, the recent commencement of hydrogenation benzene enterprises is OK, the demand for crude benzene still exists, and the recent supply of crude benzene is tight. It is expected that the recent trend of crude benzene will be mainly high-level consolidation, with limited downward space.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate Market was at a high level this week, with limited changes in spot prices. As of July 1, the average price of domestic potassium sulfate 50 particles was 5566.67 yuan / ton, up or down 0% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week.

This week, the momentum of the domestic potash fertilizer market has weakened, and the operating rate of potassium sulfate Mannheim enterprises has stabilized, with the overall operating rate of about 45%, and the on-site supply is tight. In terms of potassium chloride, the domestic potassium price fell steadily, the procurement of downstream enterprises such as potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate slowed down, while the arrival of border trade surged, the supply of potassium chloride was expected to increase, the spot offer was loose, and the support for processing potassium sulfate enterprises was weakened. At present, the on-site offer of potassium sulfate is temporarily stable, there are few new orders of potassium sulfate, the trading is general, and the on-site inventory rises.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of business agency believe that the high price of domestic potassium sulfate is strong this week, and the market of potassium chloride is falling. Domestic potassium sulfate cost side support is loose, the demand side follow-up is general, and the supply side maintains a flat tight pattern. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic potassium sulfate price may fall due to the falling cost and weak demand.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of June 29, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 12700.00 yuan / ton. In June, the price of DMF was narrow and strong. From 12550 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 12700 yuan / ton at the end of the month, the price at the beginning of the month increased by 1.2% compared with that at the end of the month, or about 100 yuan / ton. As a whole, the price in June was narrow, and the mainstream price range was 12500-12700 yuan / ton.

From June 13 to June 20 in the first ten days of June, the domestic DMF price was weak, the mainstream price range was 12500-13000 yuan / ton, the transaction atmosphere was ok, the negotiation atmosphere was positive, the manufacturers shipped smoothly, the downstream just needed to purchase, the logistics was smooth, and the upstream methanol: the average price of the domestic methanol market was 2715 yuan / ton. Recently, the oil price fell, and the methanol futures market of plastics, PP and other commodities fell. In terms of spot, the production cost of methanol has weakened slightly, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The domestic methanol market may be stable in the near future.

In the middle of June, the domestic DMF price operated smoothly. At present, the mainstream price range is 12500-13000 yuan / ton. The transaction atmosphere is acceptable, the negotiation atmosphere is positive, the manufacturers’ shipment is smooth, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the logistics is smooth. Upstream methanol: as of June 20, the domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range. The price was relatively higher, rising first and then falling. The main reason was that the market demand improved and the receiving price rose. However, after the methanol futures fell in the middle of the week, the trading atmosphere became weaker, and the atmosphere of the domestic methanol spot market was light, and the price fell slightly.

From late June to June 23, the domestic DMF price has been running smoothly. At present, the mainstream price range is 12500-13000 yuan / ton, the transaction atmosphere is acceptable, the negotiation atmosphere is positive, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the logistics is smooth. Upstream methanol: as of June 20, the domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range. The price was relatively higher, rising first and then falling. The main reason was that the market demand improved and the receiving price rose. However, after the methanol futures fell in the middle of the week, the trading atmosphere became weaker, and the atmosphere of the domestic methanol spot market was light, and the price fell slightly.

Chemical commodity index: on June 28, the chemical index was 1165 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 16.79% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 94.82% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the analysts of business agency DMF, it is expected that the DMF market will operate stably in July, with a narrow range of strong operation. (if you want to know more about the latest market trends of the industrial chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business club to obtain commodity information and master commodity prices)

According to the data monitored by the business club, the average price of domestic rubber grade premium white carbon black was 6325.00 yuan / ton as of June 29. In June, the overall market for white carbon black operated smoothly with little price change. The price was mainly stable. The cost of white carbon black was supported to a certain extent. The downstream just needed to purchase, and the willingness to prepare goods was not strong. At present, the market supply was normal, the market transaction atmosphere was general, and the overall market maintained a balance between supply and demand, The price fluctuates little.

In the first ten days of May, the market price of white carbon black was stable from June 6 to June 10. Compared with the same period last week, there was no change in the price. The overall market supply and demand was balanced. The downstream just needed to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics was smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere was flat. The upstream hydrochloric acid: mainly operated stably. The recent market price of upstream liquid chlorine was adjusted at a high level, with general cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market was adjusted at a high level, and the price of polyaluminum chloride was adjusted at a low level, The downstream purchase intention is average.

In mid May, the market price of white carbon black was stable from June 13 to June 17. Compared with the same period last week, there was no change in the price. The overall market supply and demand was balanced. The downstream just needed to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics was smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere was flat. The price of upstream hydrochloric acid: domestic hydrochloric acid fell slightly. The average market price fell from 287.50 yuan / ton last weekend to 275.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 4.35%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year increase was 19.57%. On June 16, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 72.37, unchanged from yesterday, down 47.52% from the highest point 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 302.50% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

In late May, the market price of white carbon black was stable. Compared with the same period last week, there was no change in the price. The overall market supply and demand was balanced. The downstream just needed to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics was smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere was flat. The upstream hydrochloric acid: as of June 24, the upstream cost of hydrochloric acid was generally supported, the downstream ammonium chloride market was high, the price of polyaluminum chloride was low, and the downstream purchase intention was general, In the short term, the hydrochloric acid market will mainly operate stably.

Chemical commodity index: on June 28, the chemical index was 1165 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 16.79% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 94.82% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

According to the white carbon black analyst of business agency, it is expected that the white carbon black market will mainly operate stably in the short term, which can improve the balance of market supply and demand, and the range of price fluctuation is limited. (if you want to know more about the market dynamics of the industrial chain, you are welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business club, obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 fell sharply within 7 days. On June 20, the average price of domestic PVC was 8385 yuan / ton, and on June 27, the average price was 7472.5 yuan / ton. The price fell by 10.88% within 7 days.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the PVC domestic spot market continued to decline, and the futures price fell for 13 consecutive working days, dampening the sentiment of the spot market. At present, the confidence of PVC spot market is still insufficient. Downstream enterprises and traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. They are cautious in taking goods, have a weak willingness to purchase, and have a poor delivery in the PVC spot market. As of the 27th, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone is mostly around 7050-7800 yuan / ton. The quotation of Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang is relatively high, around 7700-7800 yuan / ton.

International crude oil. On June 27, the price of international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $109.57/barrel, up US $1.95 or 1.81%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $110.98/barrel, up US $1.88 or 1.72%. The market is mainly affected by the expectation of supply tightening.

Ethylene, internationally, on June 27, Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 981 US dollars / ton; CFR Southeast Asia quotation is USD 1101 / ton. On June 27, the U.S. ethylene market was $572 / ton. Recently, the U.S. ethylene market has been stable with average demand. As of the 27th, the domestic ethylene market price was around 7900 yuan / ton. Manufacturers’ shipping atmosphere was light, and the main force maintained a cautious offer.

As for calcium carbide, as of the 27th, the average ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers of calcium carbide was 3833.33 yuan / ton. Within 7 days, the factory price of calcium carbide manufacturers fell slightly. The price of raw material blue carbon fell slightly, the cost support of calcium carbide weakened, but the downstream PVC market fell slightly, the downstream demand weakened, and the power for calcium carbide to rise was insufficient. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fall in a narrow range in early July.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

PVC analysts of business club believe that at present, PVC is in the off-season, domestic demand is weak, and market transactions are poor. The accumulated inventory is obvious, the market confidence is insufficient, the downstream is cautious in taking goods, and the operating rate is not high. It is expected that the PVC market will be weak and stable in the short term.

1、 Price data

As of June 26, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8701.00 yuan / ton, down 1.05% from 8793.25 yuan / ton on June 20. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8600-8700 yuan / ton.

As of June 26, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic locally refined straight run naphtha was 8400.00 yuan / ton, down 1.83% from 8556.67 yuan / ton on June 20. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight run naphtha was about 8400-8500 yuan / ton.

On June 26, the naphtha commodity index was 107.39, unchanged from yesterday, down 11.71% from the highest point 121.64 in the cycle (March 10, 2022), and up 154.24% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the local refining naphtha price fell at a high level, the international crude oil price fell, the naphtha market cost support was limited, the market mentality was pessimistic, the terminal demand was not significantly positive, and the refineries continued to reduce prices and actively shipped.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fell, the market returned to fundamentals, and the crude oil supply price was under tight support. However, affected by the expectation of interest rate hike by many central banks across the country, the market was worried about the economic recession, and the oil price was still fluctuating in the range. The US inflation in May exceeded expectations. The CPI soared to 8.6% year-on-year. The US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike of 75 basis points also set a record. The fear of further increasing the risk of global economic recession, coupled with the uncertainty of the epidemic, has led to major changes in market expectations. The dollar rose again, risky assets were sold off again, and the stock market, bulk commodities and other fields fell on a large scale. Crude oil bears the brunt. It is already at a relatively high level in history. Under the condition that the tight supply situation has not changed, the panic has dealt a heavy blow to the oil price.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business community, toluene continued to decline this week. On June 17, the price was 9060 yuan / ton, and on June 24, the price was 8570 yuan / ton, down 5.41% from last week. Mixed xylene continued its decline this week, and the price fell broadly. On June 17, the price was 8840 yuan / ton, and on June 24, the price was 8270 yuan / ton, down 6.45% from last week. In the PX market, the market price of paraxylene was stable this week. By the end of the week, the ex factory price of domestic paraxylene was 10900 yuan / ton, up 67.69% year-on-year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the energy analysts of business agency, the international crude oil price fell, the naphtha market cost support was limited, the market trading was cautious, the wait-and-see mood was strong, the terminal demand was not significantly good, and the refineries cut prices and shipped. It is expected that naphtha refining in the near future may decline slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business society, toluene continued to decline this week. On June 17, the price was 9060 yuan / ton, and on Friday (June 24), the price was 8570 yuan / ton, down 5.41% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 48.24%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil and the external market weakened, and the external news was poor. The PX market in the downstream of toluene weakened, the terminal demand was poor, the gasoline blending market continued to fall, the market demand was light, and the mentality of the operators was poor.

In terms of external trading, toluene in Asia fell violently this week. On Thursday (June 23), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was $1210 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of $45 / ton, or 3.59%.

In terms of crude oil, the expectation of tight global oil supply still exists, but the market is worried that the expectation of the Federal Reserve to significantly raise interest rates may lead to a recession in the U.S. economy, and crude oil fell this week. As of June 24, Brent’s price was flat this week compared with last week; WTI fell $1.94/barrel, or 1.77%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China rose continuously this week. On June 17, the price was 17325 yuan / ton, and on June 24, the price was 17700 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.16% over last week and 28.26% over the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On Friday (June 24), the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 10900 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 67.69% compared with the same period last year. As of the 23rd, the closing price in Asia was USD 1275 / T FOB Korea and USD 1293 / T CFR China

In terms of gasoline, the gasoline price in Shandong fell violently this week. On June 17, the price was 9516.8 yuan / ton, and on June 24, the price was 9157 yuan / ton, down 3.78% from last week and up 15.57% from the same period last year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In terms of crude oil, crude oil is playing a long and short game. The expectation of tight supply and demand growth give support to the oil price. The expectation of interest rate hikes in many countries drag down the economy, but the short-term oil price is still high. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions, etc. on crude oil prices.

The trend of crude oil is full of uncertainty, toluene in the external market still has a downward trend, and the trend of domestic toluene returns to the demand side. The downstream demand is poor, the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and toluene may continue to weaken. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise steadily this week. On June 23, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 460000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.66% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on June 19, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 457000 yuan / ton). On June 23, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 478000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.63% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on June 19, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 475000 yuan / ton).

According to the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate still increased this week. At present, the production performance of upstream manufacturers is stable, and the market is more active in lithium carbonate inquiry, but there are few zero order transactions, mainly for just in need purchase. With the optimistic market recovery after the outbreak, the lithium carbonate market is very expensive.

The price of downstream lithium hydroxide is stable, the price of upstream spodumene is high, and the price of upstream lithium carbonate is rising steadily, which supports the price support mentality of manufacturers. The supply side is mainly stable, the downstream procurement demand is average, the inventory is mainly digested, the market transaction is flat, and the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market price is stable.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream is running smoothly. At present, the supply of the manufacturer is still tight, and the supply is obviously insufficient. The contract customers are mainly responsible for arranging orders and delivering goods, and the number of new orders is limited. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, and the price remains high. The price in the upstream is still high, and the price continues to rise. The cost pressure of lithium iron phosphate remains.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business club, due to the high price of lithium carbonate, the willingness of the downstream market to receive goods is not strong, and the overall market has strong game sentiment. They mostly take a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the short-term price of lithium carbonate will be temporarily stable.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of June 22, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 4533.33 yuan / ton, down 3.55% compared with last Wednesday (June 15), 29.17% compared with May 22, and 17.07% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently, the market price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid fell. In the recent period, the price of upstream products has been mainly adjusted and operated, the price of main raw material methanol has fallen, the cost side is generally supported, the supply side is mainly stable, and the downstream is mostly off-season. The enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement is not high, the demand side performance is not good, the enterprise is under pressure to ship, and the wait-and-see operation is carried out after the price of 85% formic acid weakens.

In terms of cost: upstream caustic soda, the price of caustic soda shall be adjusted and operated, downstream shall be purchased on demand, and it is comprehensively estimated that it will be mainly adjusted in the later stage; On June 21, the reference price of upstream liquid ammonia was 4873.33, a decrease of 7.88% compared with that on June 1 (5290.00); Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price was temporarily stable on June 21; As for upstream methanol, according to the monitoring data of shanghaishe, on June 21, the reference price of methanol was 2705.00, up 3.34% compared with that on June 1 (2617.50). On June 21, the ex factory quotation of methanol enterprises in Shandong was lowered.

According to the formic acid analysts of business agency, the main raw material methanol is weak, the cost support is limited, the supply side has not changed, and the demand side is light. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may be under pressure.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of June 21, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 18900.00 yuan / ton, up 0.89% compared with the price on June 15, up 1.07% compared with the price on May 21, and down 2.24% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently, the market quotation of epichlorohydrin is mainly stable, and the prices of some enterprises are adjusted. Recently, the raw material propylene market is weak, the cost support is weakened, some units are shut down for maintenance, and the market supply is reduced, but the downstream demand is poor, the buying atmosphere is light, and the epichlorohydrin price is stable and waiting for adjustment.

The upstream propylene, according to the monitoring data of business news agency, the reference price of propylene was 7938.25 on June 20, a decrease of 1.76% compared with June 1 (8080.60).

For downstream epoxy resin, on June 20, the reference price of epoxy resin was 23675.00, a decrease of 6.97% compared with June 1 (25450.00).

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, the current supply side has certain support, the cost side support is weak, and the lack of follow-up on the demand side drags down the market. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may be weak in the short term.