In May, the aluminum price decreased first and then increased

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on May 31 was 20760 yuan / ton, down 0.32% from the average market price of 20826.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (5.1), and up 10.48% from the average market price of 18790 yuan / ton in the same period last year.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots was 24240 yuan / ton, and the recent deviation from the peak value fell by 14.36%. Starting from the recent recovery (december13,2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 10.06% in the recent period.

Introduction to aluminum ingot fundamentals in May

1. Social inventory of aluminum ingots in May

In May, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions remained within the range of 900000-980000 tons, close to the level of the same period in 2021 and at a relatively low level in recent 6 years. As of the 30th, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions was 955000 tons. From the perspective of zoning, the shipment speed of Foshan and Wuxi has increased in the short term, the arrival volume is low, and the delivery from the warehouse has warmed up; The inventory in Gongyi area has accumulated slightly, which is mainly based on the increase of downstream consumption. The regional price has a premium compared with other regions, and the arrival volume has increased.

2. import and export data of aluminum industry chain

According to the latest data of the General Administration of customs, China’s imports of unwrought non alloy aluminum in April 2022 were 34900 tons, a month on month decrease of 4600 tons, or 11.55%; A year-on-year decrease of 120700 tons, or 77.59%. From January to April of 2022, the cumulative import of domestic primary aluminum was 131400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 357500 tons, or 73.12%.

In April, the export of primary aluminum was 32000 tons, a month on month decrease of 10200 tons, a decrease of 24.20%, a year-on-year increase of 31600 tons, mainly to the Netherlands. The total export volume was 27400 tons, accounting for 85.49% of the total export volume. The total export volume of other countries (Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam and other countries) was 4700 tons, accounting for 14.51% of the total export volume. In April, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 596700 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 36.5%

3. policy information

In 2022, Shaanxi will further strengthen the work related to industrial energy conservation and carbon reduction in 2022, promote energy efficiency benchmarking in key industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia and calcium carbide, give play to the role of benchmarking and demonstration, promote the technological transformation of energy conservation and carbon reduction in key enterprises, and improve the benchmark level of energy efficiency and the proportion of benchmarking capacity.

Fujian Province has thoroughly implemented the implementation plan for pollution prevention and control, and implemented the national plan for improving the dual control system of energy consumption intensity and total amount. By 2025, the proportion of production capacity and data centers in key industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia and calcium carbide to reach the benchmark level of energy efficiency will exceed 30%. We will step up the elimination of backward production capacity and the elimination of excess production capacity, promote the green transformation and upgrading of traditional industries such as thermal power, steel, cement, petrochemical and chemical industry, promote the new development of the building materials industry, and guide the transformation from blast furnace converter long process steelmaking to electric furnace short process steelmaking.

Yunnan power grid issued the notice on liberalizing the power load of early limited electrolytic aluminum in Dali and Wenshan areas. The notice points out that the water supply in Yunnan Province is better than expected, and the small power generation capacity in Huangping area of Dali continues to increase. In combination with the favorable factors such as the commissioning of Wenshan 500kV Tianxing Substation Phase II on June 20, it is decided to fully release the power load of the Limited electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Dali and Wenshan areas from now until the end of the flood season on the premise that the replacement of capacity indicators is in place. It is beneficial to the production speed of Yunnan Aluminum Yixin, Yunnan Qiya, Yunnan Hongtai and other projects.

Aftermarket forecast

Domestic transportation conditions have gradually improved, market circulation has begun to return to normality, downstream consumer demand has a rising momentum, and it is expected that the price of aluminum ingots will be strong in the short term.

1、 Price data

As of May 29, the average ex factory price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8293.25 yuan / ton, up 0.45% from 8255.75 yuan / ton on May 23. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8200-8400 yuan / ton.

As of May 29, the average ex factory price of domestic locally refined straight run naphtha was 8165.00 yuan / ton, up 0.74% from 8105.00 yuan / ton on May 23. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight run naphtha was about 8100-8300 yuan / ton.

On May 29, the naphtha commodity index was 102.35, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.86% from the highest point 121.64 in the cycle (March 10, 2022), and up 142.31% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The local refined naphtha price was slightly lower this week, the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the terminal demand was not significantly positive, the market transaction was general, and the refinery shipment was positive.

Upstream: as the international crude oil price rises, the EU’s oil ban on sanctions against Russia has been delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remains unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. OPEC will adhere to the oil production agreement reached last year at the meeting on June 2, increasing the daily output by 432000 barrels in July, rejecting the Western call for faster production increase to reduce soaring oil prices. As the epidemic situation in Asia gradually eases, demand expectations tend to improve. However, the economic recession, the tightening of monetary policy and the spread of monkeypox virus have increased the uncertainty of oil demand prospects, which has led to pressure on oil prices to a certain extent.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business community, toluene rose broadly this week. On May 23, the price was 7810 yuan / ton, and on May 29, the price was 7910 yuan / ton, up 1.28% from last week. The price of mixed xylene rose this week. On May 23, the price was 7830 yuan / ton, and on May 29, the price was 7880 yuan / ton, up 0.64% from last week. In the PX market, the market price of paraxylene was stable this week, and the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9900 yuan / ton by the end of the weekend.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the energy analysts of business agency, the rising international crude oil price and the naphtha market cost support, but the market trading is general, and the terminal is not significantly good. The market just needs to purchase. The market is in a strong wait-and-see mood, and it is cautious to catch up. It is expected that the naphtha refining in the near future may be dominated by consolidation.

1、 Price trend

Ethylene glycol prices fluctuated in the low range this month. According to the data of business agency, on May 27, the average p value of oil based ethylene glycol was 4966.67 yuan / ton, down 41.66 yuan / ton compared with the previous statistical cycle.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of cost, the crude oil market is constrained by many factors. On the one hand, the expectation of tight global oil supply and rising demand has boosted the oil market. On the other hand, the market is still worried that the economic recession and high oil prices will curb oil demand. Brent crude oil futures fluctuated broadly around $110 / barrel in the month.

However, the operating rate of ethylene glycol decreased slightly within the month. At present, eg is economically poor. The cogeneration unit tends to EO Production, and the manufacturers mainly supply contract goods. The port inventory is still at a high level. As of May 26, the total inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China was 1184500 tons. The port shipment was poor, the spot supply was still sufficient, the domestic epidemic spread at many points, the logistics transportation and demand improvement process was blocked, and the downstream manufacturers were careful to stock up.

3、 Forecast: the double weak situation of ethylene glycol supply and demand is difficult to change, and the undervalued market will continue.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business agency, as of May 26, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 17500 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, up 4.17% compared with the same period last year

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, as of May 26, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 21166.67 yuan / ton, down 1.55% from the beginning of the week and 7.7% from the same period last year

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of refrigerant R22 was temporarily stable, the price of raw material chloroform continued to fall, the cost support became weaker, the downstream air conditioning industry did not reach the peak season, the demand was still not high, and the price of R22 was stable and fell. At present, the price of raw hydrofluoric acid is mostly 11730 yuan / ton, the price of chloroform is about 5487.5 yuan / ton, and the market price of R22 is mostly in the range of 17000-18000 yuan / ton. The quotation in Shandong is about 17000-17500 yuan / ton, that in Zhejiang is about 17000-17500 yuan / ton, that in Hunan is about 17500-18000 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is about 18000 yuan / ton.

The market of refrigerant R134a weakened this week, and the quotation of enterprises continued to decline, with the lowest price of about 18500 yuan / ton, and the market focus shifted downward. The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid fluctuates little, the price of trichloroethylene drops sharply, the cost support continues to weaken, the logistics has not been fully recovered, and the output and sales of the automobile industry are poor, the demand continues to be weak, the enterprise shipment is not smooth, the price reduction and inventory arrangement are the main, the actual transaction is lower than the offer, and the transaction is light. Up to now, the price of raw hydrofluoric acid is about 11730 yuan / ton. The market quotation of R134a is mostly in the range of 18300-25000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is lower than the offer. The quotation in Zhejiang is about 19000-25000 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is about 17000-17500 yuan / ton, that in Hunan is about 18500-19000 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is about 20500 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, on May 26, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market was temporarily stable, the operation of on-site devices was stable, the supply of goods was normal, and the market price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid was stable. The recent rise of fluorite price had a certain supporting impact on the hydrofluoric acid Market. In addition, the operating rate of downstream refrigerant industry was still at a low level, the actual demand was at a low level, and the purchase of hydrofluoric acid was limited, and the refrigerant price trend fell recently, However, the recent operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is stable, and it is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will be mainly stable.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the business community, the cost demand is weak, the market transaction atmosphere is light, and the overall focus of the refrigerant market moves downward. It is expected that there will be no positive factors in the short term. It is expected that R22 and R134a will continue to operate in a weak position, which is easy to fall but difficult to rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic hips on May 25 was 12333.33 yuan / ton, down 0.27% from 12366.67 yuan / ton on Wednesday (18th) and 9.09% from the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the hips market has weakened and the price has fallen slightly. The raw material styrene fluctuated and fell. In addition, the demand side was always weak. Both the buyer and the seller were on the sidelines. The merchant’s quotation mostly followed the market, and the mentality was negative. Hips market is generally stable and fluctuates in a narrow range. So far, the ex factory price of hips is mostly about 11400-14100 yuan / ton, and the price of GPPS 525 is mostly 10200-11500 yuan / ton. The PS market fluctuates slightly during the week.

In the international crude oil market, on May 24, the international crude oil futures rose and fell, and the market was still high. U.S. WTI crude oil futures fell, and the settlement price of the main contract was US $109.77/barrel, down US $0.52 or 0.47%; Brent crude oil futures rose slightly, and the settlement price of the main contract was US $113.56/barrel, up US $0.14 or 0.12%. There was little change in market fundamentals. Under the background of the Fed’s interest rate hike, the future economic uncertainty increased, and the market’s concern about the demand outlook offset the expectation of oil supply shortage.

In terms of raw materials, on May 24, the reference price of styrene was 10241.67, an increase of 5.22% compared with May 1 (9733.33). The international crude oil market is expected to rise, the downstream demand is slightly insufficient, and the cost and pressure of styrene coexist. Generally speaking, if the raw material level rises next week, the styrene market will follow the rise.

3、 Future forecast

The business agency believes that the current cost level fluctuates and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the hips market will fall steadily in the short term.

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether Market showed a trend of rising first and then stabilizing, and the market price in Henan was relatively strong. According to the monitoring data of Henan news agency, the average price of methyl ether rose by 43.00 yuan / ton on February 24, compared with the average price of 410.00 yuan / week on February 24.

As of May 24, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

Region, Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi Province, 4370 yuan / ton

Hebei Province, 4500 yuan / ton

Henan Province, 4250 yuan / ton

Recently, the domestic dimethyl ether Market has entered the consolidation stage after rising. At present, the price of dimethyl ether in Henan market is relatively strong, and the prices in Shandong and Hebei markets are stable and upward. At present, there are obvious positive factors in the market. Although the raw material methanol market is sideways consolidated, the civil LPG market rebounds driven by the rise of international crude oil, which is good for the market mentality. In addition, there is no obvious pressure on the shipment in Henan market, the mentality is relatively strong, and the price is mostly stable.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2655 yuan / ton on May 24, down 0.19% from the previous trading day and 0.56% year-on-year. On May 24, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell violently, and the main contract ma2209 closed at 2726 yuan / ton, down 87 yuan / ton compared with the closing of the previous trading day. The raw coal price and oil price are strong, and the downstream Tianjin Bohai Chemical MTO is expected to be put into operation, and the supply side is relatively abundant at present. Supply and demand game, methanol market or shock consolidation.

At present, the raw material methanol market fluctuates in a narrow range, and the civil price of related products liquefied gas is slightly adjusted back, which brings some support to the market. The shipment situation in Henan market is mild, and the manufacturer’s mentality is relatively strong. However, with the arrival of the traditional off-season, the terminal demand is expected to be weak, which has brought some restraint to the dimethyl ether Market. It is expected that the price of dimethyl ether market will continue to consolidate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3920 yuan / ton on May 16 and 4233 yuan / ton on May 23. The price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 7.99% this week.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate on May 16 was 3725 yuan / ton, and the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate on May 23 was 3950 yuan / ton. This week, the price of diammonium phosphate increased by 6.04%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the prices of raw sulfur and phosphate rock continued to rise, the cost pressure only increased, and the market of monoammonium phosphate rose again. The manufacturer’s inventory is tight, there is no sales pressure for the time being, and the downstream purchases on demand. The quotation of most enterprises is suspended and a small number of orders are received. This week, the factory quotation of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan is about 4500 yuan / ton, and the market quotation of 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 4400 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

The price of diammonium phosphate continued to rise this week due to the continuous rise of raw material prices. The domestic supply of diammonium is tight, the demand is reduced, and the focus is shifted to the export market. At present, most manufacturers still suspend quotation and a few receive orders. This week, the factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei is about 3700 yuan / ton, and the market quotation of 64% diammonium in Guizhou is about 4200 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

Raw phosphate rock market. The domestic phosphate ore market rose as a whole this week. The supply of phosphate rock is still tight. The supply of several mainstream domestic mines is tight, mainly for their own use. There is basically no external supply inventory, and some orders have been scheduled to June. The large price difference of phosphate rock at home and abroad also gives a certain impetus to the rise of phosphate rock market. This week, the reference average price in the mainstream areas of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is around 870 yuan / ton.

Raw sulfur market. The sulfur market is strong this week, the maintenance of domestic refineries is concentrated, the enterprise inventory is low, and there is no shipping pressure for the time being. The downstream purchase is followed up smoothly, and the sulfur market is in short supply. According to the inventory situation, enterprises in Shandong sorted out the upward quotation. The mainstream price of solid sulfur is about 4050-4100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 3900-4000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium phosphate analyst of business society believes that due to the high cost and price of ammonium phosphate, the supply of ammonium phosphate in the field is tight, and the transaction focus continues to move upward. Under the influence of high raw materials and low supply, the market of ammonium phosphate is expected to continue to rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 rose this week, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell. As of May 20, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for China viscosity 2.75-2.85 was about 16066.67 yuan / ton, up or down by + 1.90% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: upstream, the price of caprolactam continued to rise this week. Crude oil fluctuated violently under the influence of the increasingly tense situation in Eastern Europe. Raw materials pure benzene and caprolactam were supported. In addition, some caprolactam enterprises planned to overhaul their units in the early stage, resulting in reduced supply and rising prices. It is expected that the production of caprolactam will mainly rise in the short-term after finishing according to the market demand of caprolactam.

The upstream caprolactam market trend is positive, and the cost side support of PA6 this week is acceptable. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant was generally stable at about 70% in the month, with limited change. In terms of news, the tension between Russia and Ukraine remains, and the strong operation of international crude oil prices does not have the expected obvious support and transmission effect on the cost side of PA6. The supply side of PA6 has gradually turned from abundant to tight. The load of downstream enterprises has increased slightly this week, the demand has increased, and the on-site trading has improved. Recent health incidents have blocked the logistics in many places in East China, affecting some PA6 demand.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA6 has risen this week, the trend of caprolactam has risen as a whole, and the cost support of PA6 is OK. Downstream enterprises take goods against the high price supply, but the on-site supply is decreasing. It is expected that the PA6 market trend may be dominated by a narrow rise in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of May 19, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 11533.33 yuan / ton, down 1.70% from Monday, 0.29% from April 19, and 5.21% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Propylene oxide market fell this week. Recently, the market of propylene raw material is weak, the price of liquid chlorine raw material is down, the cost support is weakened, and some manufacturers at the supply end are in the process of plant maintenance, but the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, the purchase is reduced, the manufacturers’ shipment is poor, the inventory is gradually under pressure, and the price of propylene oxide is reduced. On the 19th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 10600-10700 yuan / ton.

For upstream propylene, on May 18, the reference price of propylene was 8560.60, an increase of 1.74% compared with May 1 (8414.60).

According to the monitoring data of downstream propylene glycol, as of May 18, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial propylene glycol is 12200 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on May 14, 2022 (the ex factory reference price of propylene glycol is 11433 yuan / ton), the average price is increased by 767 yuan / ton, or 6.71%.

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that at present, the support of the cost side is general and the demand side is slightly incremental, but it is still cold and the support of supply and demand is insufficient. It is expected that the propylene oxide market may still be under pressure in the short term.

In mid May, the domestic EVA market first opened and then stabilized. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 23166.67 yuan / ton on May 1 and 24233.33 yuan / ton on May 9, with an increase of 4.60% and 18.40% compared with the same period last year.

As of May 18, the ex factory quotation of EVA is as follows:

Products, manufactor., model., Ex factory price

EVA., yanshan petrochemical ., 18J3 ., 25000 yuan / ton

EVA., Beijing Organic, Y2022 ., 22000 yuan / ton

EVA., BASF Yangzi, V5110J., 26200 yuan / ton

In mid May, the domestic EVA market price rose first and then remained stable. The current price is relatively strong, and the ex factory quotation of petrochemical enterprises has not changed significantly. Last week, driven by the rise in the price of photovoltaic materials, the offers in the spot market rose one after another, with an obvious range. However, due to the strong rise, the downstream has limited ability to accept high prices, and the mentality is more cautious. Most of them just need to make up, the market transaction atmosphere is poor, the market continues to rise, the power is insufficient, and the price stabilizes.

On the whole, the international crude oil fluctuated and rose, which brought some support to the market in terms of cost. However, the current price is relatively high, the downstream has limited ability to accept high prices, poor enthusiasm for entering the market, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is general, which has brought some restraint to the rising market. It is expected that the EVA market may weaken in the short term.