According to the data of business agency, as of June 19, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil was 6690.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 2.20% from 6546.00 yuan / ton on June 13.

On June 19, the fuel oil commodity index was 135.49, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a new high in the cycle, up 194.03% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The price of international crude oil fell, the bidding price of domestic asphalt and Fukuang shale oil rose, and the cost of ship fuel market supported the price rise. According to the business news agency, as of June 19, the price of 180CST self raised low sulfur fuel oil and 120cst self raised low sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan was 6700 yuan / ton and 6800 yuan / ton respectively; The price of 180CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 6700 yuan / ton, and the price of 120cst self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6800 yuan / ton.

The decline in international crude oil prices is mainly due to the resonance impact of the general decline in the stock market and bulk commodities. Bulk commodity prices are generally at historical highs. Once the market is in trouble, a broad shock correction is inevitable. However, the fundamentals in key areas such as crude oil and agricultural products have not been reversed. In particular, the Russian Ukrainian war has led to tight supply. Therefore, it is expected that it will take time to peak or reverse the downward trend.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, supporting fuel oil prices. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of June 15, Singapore’s fuel oil storage fell by 1.228 million barrels to a four week low of 21.194 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate oil inventory soared by 1.167 million barrels, hitting an 8-week high of 7.958 million barrels. Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory increased by 691000 barrels, reaching a 15 month high of 15.812 million barrels.

Future forecast: the price of raw materials in the domestic ship fuel market is high, the bidding price of asphalt and Fukuang shale oil is rising, and the cost support price in the ship fuel market is rising, but the market terminal demand is weak, the receiving of goods is limited, and the overall transaction in the market is light. At present, the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST is about 6700 yuan / ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120cst is about 6800 yuan / ton. It is a single discussion. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be mainly consolidated in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, aniline was stable and small this week. On June 10, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12500 yuan / ton; On June 17, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12500 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 29.23% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

On the cost side, pure benzene: crude oil and pure benzene in the outer disk fell broadly, and the external information guidance weakened. The centralized maintenance period of domestic pure benzene enterprises is coming to an end, and Jiujiang Petrochemical’s new pure benzene capacity is put into operation; East China port inventory showed signs of warming, and the supply side increased. Downstream styrene and other products lost profits. Under the pressure of cost, some units were shut down and reduced in demand. Multiple negative drag, pure benzene fell this week. On Friday (June 17), the price of pure benzene was 9400-10000 yuan / ton (the average price was 9851 yuan / ton), which was 1.34% lower than last week and 27.1% higher than the same period last year.

Nitric acid: domestic nitric acid rose this week. On June 10, the domestic production price of nitric acid was 2800 yuan / ton, and on June 17, it was 2883.33 yuan / ton. The price increased by 2.98% compared with last week and 25.36% compared with the same period last year.

Pure benzene continued to weaken, but the price was still at a high level. The price of nitric acid rose, and the cost pressure of aniline remained. The price followed the price of raw materials. At present, the inventory level of aniline enterprises is normal, the factory mainly delivers goods, and the demand is normal.

3、 Aftermarket expectation

On the cost side, in terms of pure benzene, the supply increases and the demand weakens. It is expected that pure benzene will still fall.

In terms of nitric acid, the recent shipment of nitric acid is good, and the price of nitric acid is expected to rise.

Pure benzene may still fall, and aniline’s profit margin may increase; The downstream gas buying is acceptable, and the trend of aniline is expected to be stable. Pay attention to the trend of raw materials, downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline prices.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the PC market fell this week, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of June 16, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of business club was about 20183.33 yuan / ton, up or down -3.43% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the domestic bisphenol a market continued to be weak this week, and the price continued to fall. The current sluggish terminal demand is the main negative factor in the market. With the increase of inventory, the pressure on the goods holders and factories accumulates, and the shipment is slow. At present, the cost side is acceptable, the goods holders follow the market, and the business community expects a short-term weak adjustment.

The upstream bisphenol a market weakened, and the PC cost side support was cut. In terms of industry load, the domestic PC enterprises’ load was sideways this week. In the early stage, the supply side was pressured due to the resumption of some units in western Shandong, which was difficult to support the price. At present, the main benefit in the market is that the international crude oil in the far upstream also fell due to the influence of the Federal Reserve in the second half of the week. The downstream demand is weak, the operating rate of terminal enterprises is limited due to various factors, and the goods taking situation is poor. The impact of domestic health incidents on some parts of East China is gradually decreasing, but some transportation recovery is still slow. The venue has gradually entered the off-season pattern, with small orders taking the lead, buyers’ mentality of buying up but not buying down spreading, merchants’ confidence is not strong, and offer to make profits on the market.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the business analysts, the domestic PC market fell this week, the upstream bisphenol a market weakened, and the cost side’s support effect on PC weakened. On the supply side, there is abundant supply of goods on the floor, on the demand side, spot trading is relatively light, and the actual trading volume on the floor is insufficient. It is expected that the spot price may continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1690 yuan / ton on June 6, and 1646 yuan / ton on June 10. The price of ammonium sulfate fell by 2.55% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate fell this week. At present, the trading atmosphere on the floor is flat, and the new orders are generally traded. In order to relieve the shipping pressure, ammonium sulfate enterprises have lowered their prices. Downstream purchases are mainly on demand, which is inconsistent with high prices. The bidding price of ammonium sulfate was lowered this week, and some caprolactam enterprises were overhauled. As of June 10, the main factory price of coking ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1550 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is about 1500 yuan / ton. For power plant grade ammonium sulfate, the factory quotation of mainstream ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1575 yuan / ton. The mainstream factory quotation of Hexian ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1670 yuan / ton.

The market price of downstream compound fertilizer continued to be high this week. As the price of raw materials continues to rise, the cost support is strong, and the compound fertilizer market is strong. This week, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises decreased, and most enterprises’ quotations were suspended. Dealers take goods carefully, and the trend of compound fertilizer market is still dominant in the short term.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The ammonium sulphate analysts of the business agency believe that the price of ammonium sulphate has fallen from the high level after rising in the early stage. At present, domestic demand is general, there is no good news on the floor, and the export market is weak. The downstream is cautious in taking goods, and the manufacturer’s quotation is lowered to reduce inventory. It is expected that in the short term, the price of ammonium sulfate will fall in a weak and volatile manner.

According to the monitoring data of the business club, as of June 13, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 5716 yuan / ton. Compared with June 10, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 5616 yuan / ton), the price increased by 100 yuan / ton, or 1.78%. Compared with June 1, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 5350 yuan / ton), the price increased by 366 yuan / ton, or 6.85%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that in June, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market as a whole showed a steady upward trend. In this week, the market of dimethyl carbonate has been moving upward again. The increase in foreign trade orders has supported the upward movement of the market focus of dimethyl carbonate. In addition, the overall performance of the demand side has been improved in the steady resumption of work in the downstream. The inventory of dimethyl carbonate in the yard is low, and some factories arrange orders for sales. The sales pressure is small, and the atmosphere of price support is gradually rising. On June 13, the prices of some dimethyl carbonate factories were strongly increased by about 100-300 yuan / ton, The ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate is around 5700 yuan / ton, and the price of the higher end is around 5800-6000 yuan / ton. At present, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate is good, and the supply and demand transmission is smooth.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, on June 13, the domestic propylene oxide Market moved downward as a whole. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of June 13, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 11266.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.15% compared with June 1 (11633.33 yuan / ton). Recently, the raw material propylene market fell, the cost support weakened, the supply side was mainly stable, the downstream demand was cold, the factory inventory was controllable and the price was raised. The market trading atmosphere was general, and the market was running smoothly. With the downstream reduction follow-up, the market was gradually under pressure, and the price stalemate weakened.

Future trend analysis

At present, the operating rate of the on-site supply side of dimethyl carbonate is generally low, the on-site supply has decreased, and the supply side has also given some support to the market in the short term. The DMC data analyst of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is more stable and more stable, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the supply and demand side.

Cobalt price stopped falling and rebounded this week

According to the monitoring data of the business club, the cobalt market rebounded and adjusted this week, and the cobalt price stopped falling and rebounded. As of June 13, the cobalt price was 433700 yuan / ton, up 0.56% from 431300 yuan / ton on June 6 at the beginning of the week; Compared with the cobalt price of 445500 yuan / ton on June 1, it fell by 2.65%. This week, the cobalt price stopped falling and rebounded, and the cobalt market recovered.

Sales volume of new energy vehicles recovered

According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles in May were 466000 and 447000 respectively, with a month on month growth of 49.5% and 49.6% and a year-on-year growth of 1.1 times. From January to may, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles reached 2.071 million and 2.003 million respectively, an increase of 1.1 times year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles rose sharply on a month on month basis, the new energy vehicle market recovered, the demand of cobalt market recovered, the downward pressure of cobalt Market weakened, and the upward momentum increased.

Increase in ternary battery output

In terms of output, in May, China’s power battery output totaled 35.6gwh, up 157.9% year-on-year and 22.8% month on month. Among them, the output of ternary battery was 16.3gwh, accounting for 45.8% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 225.7% and a month on month increase of 58.2%; The output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 19.2gwh, accounting for 54.1% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 119.4% and a month on month increase of 3.3%. In terms of loading volume, China’s power battery loading volume reached 18.6gwh in May, with a year-on-year increase of 90.3% and a month on month increase of 39.9%. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 8.3gwh, accounting for 44.7% of the total, with a year-on-year increase of 59.0% and a month on month increase of 90.3%; The loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery was 10.2gwh, accounting for 55.1% of the total, with a year-on-year increase of 126.5% and a month on month increase of 15.1%. At present, lithium iron phosphate still leads the ternary battery in terms of output and loading volume, but the ternary battery has narrowed the gap with the market share of lithium iron phosphate in April. As more high-end consumer brands enter the new energy vehicle market, the utilization rate of ternary batteries will be improved. In addition, many plug-in hybrid and incremental models will also choose ternary batteries with higher energy density, which will help the growth of ternary battery output and loading volume. The output of ternary battery increases, the demand of cobalt market increases, and the momentum of cobalt market increases.

Market Overview

Baijiaxin, a data analyst of the business agency, believes that in May, the production and sales of the new energy automobile industry chain rose, the installed capacity and proportion of ternary batteries rose, the demand of the cobalt market recovered, and the upward momentum of cobalt prices increased and the downward pressure weakened. However, the international cobalt price has continued to fall sharply, the supply of cobalt raw materials has risen steadily, the current situation of supply exceeding demand in the cobalt market has not fundamentally changed, and the space for cobalt price rise is limited. Generally speaking, the demand of the cobalt market has warmed up, the decline of the cobalt price has been blocked, the oversupply of the cobalt market has not fundamentally changed, and the space for the rise of the cobalt price is limited. It is expected that the cobalt price will fluctuate strongly and stabilize in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the price of pure benzene rose continuously this week, with the price exceeding 10000 yuan. On June 2, the price of pure benzene was 8850-9300 yuan / ton (average price: 9167 yuan / ton). On Friday (June 10), the price of pure benzene was 9900-10050 yuan / ton (average price: 9984 yuan / ton). The average price increased by 8.91% compared with last week and 28% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Pure benzene rose strongly this week. External factors: recent strong rise in international crude oil and strong cost support. In addition, due to the strong increase in gasoline demand in the United States, a large number of toluene and xylene are required to invest in gasoline components, the disproportionation consumption is sharply reduced, the output of by-product pure benzene is significantly reduced, and the price of pure benzene in meijinpan is rising, driving the rise of pure benzene in Asia. Positive external news gave strong support to the domestic pure benzene market. Domestic factors: due to the high external price, the import of pure benzene in East China ports decreased, and the inventory continued to drop to 48000 tons. The lack of deliverable inventory led to strong short selling sentiment, and the prices in some parts of East China continued to rise. In the early stage of the main refinery, due to production cost factors, the output of pure benzene decreased and the price remained high. With multiple positive effects, pure benzene exceeded 10000 yuan.

This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 700 yuan / ton to 10000 yuan / ton.

In terms of external trading, Asian pure benzene rose in a wide range this week. On Thursday (June 9), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was $1452 / ton, up $91 / ton year-on-year, or 6.69%; The reference import price in East China was USD 1445 / T, with a year-on-year increase of USD 95 / T or 7.04%.

In terms of crude oil, due to the arrival of the peak driving season in the United States, driving demand growth, as well as the tightening of supply expectations under the background of Western sanctions against Russia, this week’s rise was dominated. As of June 10, Brent rose $2.29 per barrel, or 1.91%; WTI rose $1.8/barrel, or 1.51%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene rose broadly this week. The price was 10381.43 yuan / ton on June 2 and 11100 yuan / ton on June 10, up 6.92% from last week and 22.43% from the same period last year. The continuous rise of crude oil price has raised the prices of pure benzene and ethylene, resulting in the rise of styrene cost. There are many styrene enterprises in the site with equipment maintenance and supply reduction, which is conducive to the rise of styrene market. Styrene market transactions were acceptable, and spot prices continued to rise.

Aniline: boosted by the positive cost side, aniline rose continuously this week. On June 10, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12500 yuan / ton, up 5.51% over last week and 30.64% over the same period last year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In terms of crude oil, the short-term oil price is still running at a high point, with little change in supply and demand fundamentals. Supply tightening expectations and demand growth support oil prices. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions, etc. on crude oil prices.

Downstream: the main downstream product styrene: the international crude oil market is still at a high level, and the downstream is generally in general mood to take over the high price styrene. The cost and pressure of styrene coexist. Generally speaking, if the raw material level rises next week, the styrene market will follow suit.

The short-term crude oil and the external market are still at a high level, and under the influence of the external market high price, the East China port will continue to maintain a low inventory state. However, under the pressure of high cost, economic production reduction in the downstream and the arrival of summer maintenance season for main products will lead to negative demand for pure benzene in the future. In general, pure benzene still operates at a high level, but there is no lack of callback possibility. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market price trends, domestic logistics and transportation, and the dynamics of pure benzene and downstream devices on prices.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the domestic PA66 market maintained a weak and stable decline in the first ten days of June, and the spot prices of various brands were mostly reduced. As of June 9, the ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of the business club was about 25000 yuan / ton on average, up or down by -2.91% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic adipic acid price fluctuates in a narrow range. On the demand side, the adipic acid trading is not ideal, the domestic supply is abundant, and the port arrival level is average, so the overall support effect on PA66 spot is limited.

The upstream raw material adipic acid market fluctuated, adiponitrile market was abundant, and PA66 cost side support was poor. In terms of industrial operating rate, due to the continuous pressure on the profits of PA66 enterprises, the load level of domestic PA66 industry has decreased recently, but on the whole, the range is limited. The spot supply in the market is abundant, and the supply pressure is difficult to solve. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. On the demand side, at present, the terminal enterprises tend to follow up with the goods to maintain production, and have strong resistance to the high price supply. Although the health incidents in East China have been greatly alleviated and the logistics situation in many places has gradually recovered, the demand of domestic downstream factories has shrunk, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the merchants have great resistance to shipment. The transaction on the floor declined, and the seller’s mentality was not good, so he continued to give up profits.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the analysts of business agency, the spot price of PA66 fell in early June. The market of adiponitrile at the raw material end fluctuated weakly, and the cost side support of PA66 was poor. The load of PA66 enterprises was reduced in a narrow range, the pattern of sufficient supply in the yard remained unchanged, and the inventory pressure of enterprises and midstream increased. The demand side is short of goods, so it is expected that PA66 will continue to be affected by the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, since the end of May, the domestic DDGS market has declined weakly, and the mainstream quotation has fallen below 2900 yuan / ton. On May 25, the average market price of domestic DDGS was 2940 yuan / ton. On June 8, the average market price of domestic DDGS was 2883 yuan / ton, down 1.93%.

Demand supports domestic DDGS market to continue to rise

Since the end of May, the demand for terminal aquatic feed has gradually weakened, the market transaction is general, the alcohol factories are not confident in raising prices, and they have lowered the DDGS ex factory prices one after another. The domestic DDGS market fell weakly, falling to 2900 yuan / ton, a drop of more than 1%. Since June, the domestic DDGS market continued to decline until after the Dragon Boat Festival, the domestic DDGS price fell to 2880 yuan / ton, a decrease of nearly 2%.

Li Bing, an agricultural product analyst at the business community, believes that: the demand for terminal aquatic feed has become weak, and the negative pressure has been exerted, and the domestic DDGS will still be weak and downward in the future.

In May, the domestic dimethyl ether Market weakened as a whole, and the price showed a trend of twists and turns. The overall fluctuation range of Henan market price was limited. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4215.00 yuan / ton on May 1, and 4100.00 yuan / ton on May 30, with a decrease of 2.73% in the month, a decrease of 1.36% compared with April 1.

As of May 30, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

Region, Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi region, 4270 yuan / ton

Hebei region, 4100 yuan / ton

Henan region, 4100 yuan / ton

In May, the overall trend of domestic dimethyl ether Market was weak, and the price of dimethyl ether in Henan market showed a downward upward downward trend. During the May Day holiday, affected by the poor delivery, the manufacturer lowered the ex factory price to make profit for delivery. Subsequently, the market price of raw methanol rebounded, and the price of civil gas, a related product, rose driven by crude oil, which brought obvious support to the market, and the price of dimethyl ether continued to rise slightly. However, by the end of the month, affected by the insufficient terminal demand, the dimethyl ether Market returned to a weak position again, and the price fell.

In May, the domestic methanol market was still depressed. Although the rebound of raw coal prices has been supported, the low price of imported goods and the stalemate of downstream negotiations have limited the fluctuation of methanol prices. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 2745 yuan / ton at the beginning of May, and 2617 yuan / ton at the end of May. The price fell by 4.64% during the month and 2.06% year-on-year.

At present, the market price of raw material methanol is weak, and the civil price of related products liquefied gas is adjusted in a narrow range, which brings limited support to the market. The overall market supply is low, and the manufacturer’s inventory is relatively controllable. However, with the arrival of the traditional off-season, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the downstream market entry enthusiasm is limited, which has significantly hindered the dimethyl ether Market. It is expected that the price of dimethyl ether market may continue to decline in June.