Ethylene oxide fell sharply by 500 yuan / ton on Wednesday, followed by another 200 yuan / ton in Jihua on Thursday. At present, the mainstream market price is 6550 yuan / ton, the ex factory price in Central China is 6650 yuan / ton, and Jihua is 6350 yuan / ton.

Upstream, the interest rate hike of the European Central Bank triggered demand concerns, the price of international crude oil futures fell, and the trading on the floor has been relatively quiet. Insiders tried to weigh the supply tightness caused by the weak energy demand and the reduction of Russian oil after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Naphtha spot valuation fell to $78.14 / barrel. Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 860 US dollars / ton in the week. As of the closing of Asia on July 21, the spot price difference between ethylene and naphtha was $104.5 / ton, and the continuous loss situation of cracking unit has not been alleviated. Moreover, the domestic epidemic is sporadic, and the sealing and control policy may aggravate the low profit situation in the downstream, which continues to pose pressure on the demand side of naphtha.

Affected by the falling price and the pressure on inventory, some ethylene oxide manufacturers consider reducing the load. Based on the current external price, ethylene oxide is currently losing about 300 yuan. The 650000 ton ethylene glycol unit of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. was shut down for maintenance due to failure in the evening of 20 and is expected to restart next Monday.

Downstream monomer manufacturers follow up, manufacturers’ spot inventory pressure is large, traders are under pressure to ship, insiders are in a strong wait-and-see mood, the overall follow-up is limited, and the increase in demand is weak. There is no obvious good news to boost the market.

Forecast: EO has fallen to the low point in two years. Although the demand side is constrained, there is little downside space left, and it is expected to run at a low and weak level.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6116 yuan / ton on July 15, and the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5883 yuan / ton on July 21. The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 fell by 3.81% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 fell this week. At present, the price of liquid chlorine, the raw material of chlorinated paraffin, is running downward, and the cost support is weak. The market demand for chlorinated paraffin is weak, and there are many downstream companies that need to be purchased. The industry is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. The operating rate of chlorinated paraffin enterprises this week is about 60%. As of July 21, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui Province was about 5800 yuan / ton, that in Northeast China was about 5800 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong Province was about 6000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax rose slightly this week. Liquid wax follows the changes of crude oil market and plays a leading role in the trend. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine continued to fall this week. There are limited transactions on the floor and weak demand. The trend of liquid chlorine in the off-season market was poor, and some chlor alkali manufacturers suffered losses.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the chlorinated paraffin analyst of business society, the current market demand for chlorinated paraffin is low, and there are few transactions on the floor, making it difficult to change the weak market in the short term. In the case of poor raw material market and weak demand, the chlorinated paraffin market is expected to continue to decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of soda ash was adjusted and operated this week. The average market price of light soda ash was 2910 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2890 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The price fell by 0.69%, up 51.59% over the same period last year. On July 14, the commodity index of light soda ash was 148.21, down 0.51 points from yesterday, down 21.62% from the highest point of 189.10 in the cycle (2021-11-07), and up 134.70% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of soda ash was adjusted and operated this week. The mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2850-3000 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2850-3000 yuan / ton.

On the demand side: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the glass price fell slightly this week. The average price of glass on Monday was 20.35 yuan / square meter, and the average price this weekend was 20.21 yuan / square meter. The price fell within the week, with a range of 0.69%. Raw material prices lack support for the glass market. The terminal real estate market has not improved significantly, downstream enterprises are not enthusiastic about purchasing, and the glass market is dominated by rigid demand. It is expected that the glass spot market will be weak in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 27th week of 2022 (7.4-7.8), there was a total of 1 commodity rising, 3 commodities falling and 1 commodity rising or falling to zero in the price rise and fall list of the chlor alkali industry. The main commodities rising are: calcium carbide (1.32%); The main commodities that fell were PVC (-5.42%), caustic soda (-0.65%), and light soda (-0.34%). The average rise and fall this week was -1.02%.

According to the analysts of the business agency, the survey data of the business agency shows that the price of soda ash is mainly stable and small, and the overall trading atmosphere is general. The overall wait-and-see attitude of the downstream, weak demand, the supply and demand game between the buyer and the seller, and it is comprehensively expected that the later soda ash price consolidation operation will be the main, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the bulk commodity list data of shanghaishe, the recent weak consolidation of Shandong formaldehyde market, the average price of Shandong formaldehyde is 1213.33 yuan / ton, the current price fell by 6.19% month on month, and the current price fell by 9.45% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the formaldehyde market price in Shandong has been weak. From the above figure, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has been mainly volatile and falling in the past two months, and the recent market has been basically stable. As of July 19, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1200-1220 yuan / ton. Recently, the methanol market has not fluctuated much, the cost support is general, the downstream operating rate has not been greatly improved, the just needed procurement has been maintained, the formaldehyde manufacturers have stably shipped, and the market is weak and consolidated.

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market was in a downturn, and the decline slowed down. The receiving price in northern Shandong, the main end market, is down synchronously, and the inventory of raw materials in local downstream factories is high, causing serious vehicle crushing. The production cost of methanol may be weakened, the supply of methanol will not be reduced, and the downstream rigid demand will prevail. Methanol analysts at business club predict that in the short term, the domestic methanol market may still decline at a low level.

This week, the methanol market was adjusted at a low level, the cost support was general, the construction of downstream plate factories did not improve, the demand for formaldehyde in the field was limited, formaldehyde manufacturers shipped normally, the market transaction was light, and the formaldehyde market was weak.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has a downward trend, and the demand of downstream wood panel plants continues to be poor. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the chemical branch of shanghaishe predict that the recent decline in formaldehyde prices in Shandong is mainly weak.

As of July 17, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 6556.00 yuan / ton (including tax), down 0.30% from 6576.00 yuan / ton on July 11, according to the data of business news agency.

On July 17, the fuel oil commodity index was 132.78, unchanged from yesterday, down 2.15% from the highest point 135.70 in the cycle (2022-06-21), and up 188.15% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The international crude oil price fell, and the cost support of ship fuel market was limited. According to the business news agency, as of July 17, the quotation of 180CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan area of zhongran was 6650 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120cst self extracting low sulfur fuel oil was 6750 yuan / ton; The quotation of 180CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 6500 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120cst self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6600 yuan / ton.

The international crude oil price fell, and the market was mainly affected by the strengthening of the US dollar. The expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates increased the risk of economic recession; Superimposed on the repeated outbreaks in Asia, the possible blockade measures will suppress demand.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, supporting fuel oil prices. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of July 13, Singapore’s fuel oil storage fell by 587000 barrels to a two-week low of 20.821 million barrels. Singapore’s light distillate stocks fell 1.681 million barrels to a two-week low of 15.158 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate stocks fell by 52000 barrels to a five week low of 7.619 million barrels.

Aftermarket forecast: the domestic ship fuel market has a strong wait-and-see mood, the downstream receiving mentality is cautious, the market terminal demand is less, the transaction is light, the rigid demand is dominant, and the ship fuel market price is slightly downward. At present, the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST is about 6500 yuan / ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120cst is about 6600 yuan / ton, which is a single discussion. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market may be dominated by weakness in the near future.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic hydrochloric acid price fell slightly this week, and the average market price fell from 260.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 226.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 12.82%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell by 1.45% year-on-year. On July 15, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 59.65, unchanged from yesterday, down 56.74% from the highest point 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 231.76% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream procurement is general

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week. Dongming Petrochemical hydrochloric acid quoted 250 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend. Wen Shui synthetic hydrochloric acid is quoted at 180 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Liaocheng Huatong hydrochloric acid quoted 150 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Xiangcheng San’an hydrochloric acid quoted 350 yuan / ton this weekend, down 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is low, and the cost support is insufficient. The market price of downstream polyaluminum chloride fell slightly, from about 2230.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 2210.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 0.90%, up 28.24% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; The market price of ammonium chloride fell slightly, from 1540.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 1472.50 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 4.38%. On the whole, the upstream support is insufficient, and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is weakened.

Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and late July, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fall in a narrow range. The market of upstream liquid chlorine has been adjusted at a low level recently, and the cost support is insufficient. The market prices of downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride have declined slightly, and the downstream purchase intention is general. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has suffered a slight shock and decline recently.

In the first ten days of July, the market situation of nitrile rubber continued to be weak. According to the monitoring of business community, the price of nitrile rubber was 19025 yuan / ton as of July 10, down 2.44% from 19500 yuan / ton on July 1.

Since July, Lanzhou Petrochemical’s 100000 t / a nitrile rubber plant has been operating normally, and the start-up of nitrile rubber industry has increased slightly compared with the previous period. Except for some brands, the supply of nitrile rubber in the market is still relatively sufficient.

In the first ten days of July, the prices of butadiene and acrylonitrile fell, and the cost side weakened. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of July 10, the price of butadiene was 10184 yuan / ton, down 2.09% from 10402 yuan / ton on July 1; As of July 10, the price of acrylonitrile was 10700 yuan / ton, down 1.47% from 10860 on July 1.

The downstream operation of nitrile rubber continued to be low, and the demand side was weak. According to the business agency, the downstream insulation foaming, rubber hose and other industries started in the vicinity of 50-60%, and more on-demand procurement, NBR market fell slightly.

Aftermarket forecast: NBR analysts of business society believe that at present, the supply and demand of NBR are deadlocked, and the international crude oil price is lower again. It is expected that the NBR market will be in a weak consolidation state in the short term.

As of July 13, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 473333.34 yuan / ton, the same as that of last Tuesday (July 5), and the same as that of June 13, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.11% in a three-month cycle, according to the bulk list data of business agency.

Recently (7.5-7.13), the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market has operated stably. Recently, the price of upstream lithium carbonate has been stable, the cost has a certain support, the supply side has not changed much, and the demand side has warmed up, but the market transaction atmosphere is relatively light, and the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market negotiation focus is stable.

The price of lithium carbonate in the upstream has been stable recently. According to the bulk list data of business society, the reference price of lithium carbonate was 459000.00 on July 12, unchanged from July 1.

The lithium hydroxide analyst of business club believes that at present, the cost side support still exists, and the market transaction atmosphere is flat. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market price may be stable, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from July 4 to 11, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China fell from 11100 yuan / ton to 10960 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.26% in the week, and the price fell by 8.28% month on month, up 2.43% year on year.

This week, the domestic cyclohexanone market was depressed, the raw material pure benzene market was weak and fell, and the cost of cyclohexanone was lack of support. In the cyclohexanone market, the overall supply and demand are weak, and the downstream is more rigid, which needs to be followed up.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of July 11:

region ., Price

East China, 11300-11400 yuan / ton cash delivery

South China, 11450-11550 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong region, 11000-11100 yuan / ton cash delivery

Raw material pure benzene: the price of pure benzene fluctuated and fell. The main factor causing the price decline is the cost caused by the deep decline of crude oil and the collapse of macro psychological support.

Downstream caprolactam: the spot price of caprolactam has increased slightly. Recently, the burden of caprolactam devices has been reduced and more maintenance has been carried out, the supply has been reduced, and the caprolactam enterprises have suffered serious losses.

Pure benzene fluctuates at a high level, and the cost side is generally supported. Downstream demand has not improved significantly for the time being. Cyclohexanone enterprises are at a loss and the supply is relatively small. Cyclohexanone analysts of business agency predict that the short-term cyclohexanone market is dominated by stalemate and consolidation.

DOTP prices fell sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of DOTP fell this week, and the market of DOTP fell. As of July 11, the price of DOTP was 9287.50 yuan / ton, down 5.23% from 9800 yuan / ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of DOTP fell sharply this week, setting a new low for the year.

The price of isooctanol fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of isooctanol fell sharply this week, and the market of isooctanol fell. As of July 11, the price of isooctanol was 8333.33 yuan / ton, down 6.37% from 8900 yuan / ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. This week, the price of isooctanol fell sharply, the cost of DOTP fell, and the downward pressure on the DOTP market increased.

PTA price fluctuation adjustment this week

According to the price monitoring of business agency, PTA price fluctuated and adjusted this week, and the high crude oil price fluctuated and adjusted. PTA market fluctuated and warmed up. As of July 11, PTA price was 6685 yuan / ton, up 1.15% from the PTA price of 6609.25 yuan / ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. The high crude oil price fluctuated and adjusted, the PTA price fluctuated and warmed up, the cost pressure of DOTP weakened, and the positive momentum of DOTP remained under great downward pressure.

Aftermarket expectations

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, the high crude oil price was adjusted by shock this week, PTA prices recovered by a slight shock, isooctanol prices fell sharply in the off-season demand, DOTP costs fell, and the upward momentum of DOTP remained under increasing downward pressure. In the future, the decline in the cost of DOTP raw materials accumulated in the off-season of the market, and the downward pressure on DOTP increased. It is expected that the price of DOTP will fluctuate and fall in the future.