From May 27 to June 2, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China was temporarily stable. The price was 80000 yuan / ton last weekend and 80000 yuan / ton this weekend, flat.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the concept of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent upward trend of the antimony ingot Market around the Spring Festival entered a stable period in mid March, entered a downward channel in mid April, slowed down at the end of April and stabilized in May.

Price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe this week (unit: USD / ton)

varieties., May 27, June 2, Up and down

European small metal antimony, 13800.,13600.,- two hundred

This week, the price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe continued to decline, but the overall downward trend slowed down. As of June 2, the price was $13600 / ton, which was lowered by $200 / ton weekly, and the market atmosphere was still weak.

This week, the price of antimony ingots was temporarily stable after falling, the price was stable, the market sentiment was mostly bearish, the downstream demand was depressed, which affected the market mentality of antimony ingots. The fundamentals had little change in the near future, especially the downstream demand for antimony oxide had not been significantly improved, and the downstream price depression mentality was also strong. Although the smelting and refining plants had a strong price support mentality in the near future, it was difficult to release the downstream demand, and the overall market mentality was greatly affected. However, the downstream antimony oxide manufacturers purchase at a lower price, and the price of antimony ingots remains stable and weak.

Price trend of antimony oxide this week (unit: yuan / ton)

varieties., May 27, June 2, Up and down

99.5% antimony trioxide, 69500.,69500., 0

99.8% antimony trioxide, 71500.,71500., 0

This week, the domestic antimony oxide market price was temporarily stable, but the overall market sales situation was still weak, and the support for antimony ingots was limited.

The supply and demand side dragged down, and the price of chloroform fell sharply in May. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of May 31, the price of chloroform apron in Shandong was 3350 yuan / ton, down 38.95% from 5487 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Since May, the start-up of domestic methane chloride plant has been raised to around 80-90%. Jinling unit in Shandong operates at 90% load, Dongyue unit operates at full load, Luxi unit operates at 80% load, and the start-up of Liwen, Meilan, Juhua and other enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is at the same high level. In addition, Dongying Huatai’s new 160000 T / a methane chloride unit in the last phase is planned to be put into operation in the near future, which further increases the domestic supply pressure.

In May, the spot price of raw methanol decreased slightly, and the cost side weakened slightly. According to the business agency, as of May 31, the price of methanol was 2617 yuan / ton, down 4.64% from 2745 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The production and sales of air conditioners are shrinking, and the demand for refrigerant is insufficient. The start-up of refrigerant R22 plant continues to be low, and the demand side is weak.

Future forecast: the analysts of the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the overall chloroform market is weak due to the lower cost and weaker downstream demand. However, after the sharp decline in May, the risk of chloroform decline is gradually reduced. It is expected that the price of chloroform will be weak and volatile in the later period.

The supply and demand side dragged down, and the price of chloroform fell sharply in May. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of May 31, the price of chloroform apron in Shandong was 3350 yuan / ton, down 38.95% from 5487 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Since May, the start-up of domestic methane chloride plant has been raised to around 80-90%. Jinling unit in Shandong operates at 90% load, Dongyue unit operates at full load, Luxi unit operates at 80% load, and the start-up of Liwen, Meilan, Juhua and other enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is at the same high level. In addition, Dongying Huatai’s new 160000 T / a methane chloride unit in the last phase is planned to be put into operation in the near future, which further increases the domestic supply pressure.

In May, the spot price of raw methanol decreased slightly, and the cost side weakened slightly. According to the business agency, as of May 31, the price of methanol was 2617 yuan / ton, down 4.64% from 2745 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The production and sales of air conditioners are shrinking, and the demand for refrigerant is insufficient. The start-up of refrigerant R22 plant continues to be low, and the demand side is weak.

Future forecast: the analysts of the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the overall chloroform market is weak due to the lower cost and weaker downstream demand. However, after the sharp decline in May, the risk of chloroform decline is gradually reduced. It is expected that the price of chloroform will be weak and volatile in the later period.

On June 1, the price of raw material dissolving pulp was expected to rise, and the comprehensive cost remained high. Some viscose staple fiber manufacturers raised their offer by 300-500 yuan / ton. Some manufacturers maintained their early quotations, and some even offered 16000 yuan / ton. However, the actual negotiation space was different according to the order, and the consignment atmosphere was deadlocked. The price of cotton yarn is stable, the shipment is general, the downstream orders are limited, and the yarn inventory is still large.

Trend chart of viscose staple fiber price

According to the price monitoring of the business club, as of June 1, 2022, the ex factory quotation of 1.2d*38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 15500 yuan / ton, 280 yuan / ton higher than yesterday’s price, a daily increase of 1.84%. The average ex factory price of cotton yarn (30s, ring spinning, first-class product) is 19100 yuan / ton, and the price is stable.

Supply and demand market

Recently, the overseas market is good, the domestic market trading atmosphere is general, the supply of viscose staple fiber remains in a tight balance, and the inventory is relatively fast. However, the price of conductive viscose staple fiber in the yarn factory is limited, the terminal demand has not improved, and the downstream orders are limited. At present, the stock of finished human cotton yarn is accumulated, local logistics is not smooth, the spot delivery of the yarn factory is still blocked, and the price negotiation is high.

Aftermarket forecast

Recently, foreign dissolving pulp devices have changed greatly and the supply has been continuously tight. There is still room for the rising of dissolving pulp, the cost has been pushed up, and it is difficult for viscose staple fiber factories to make concessions. However, the demand for textile terminals continues to be flat, difficult to improve, and the trading has always been general. Analysts from the business community predict that the price of viscose staple fiber will be stable, medium and strong, running at a high level.

In May, the aluminum price decreased first and then increased

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on May 31 was 20760 yuan / ton, down 0.32% from the average market price of 20826.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (5.1), and up 10.48% from the average market price of 18790 yuan / ton in the same period last year.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots was 24240 yuan / ton, and the recent deviation from the peak value fell by 14.36%. Starting from the recent recovery (december13,2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 10.06% in the recent period.

Introduction to aluminum ingot fundamentals in May

1. Social inventory of aluminum ingots in May

In May, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions remained within the range of 900000-980000 tons, close to the level of the same period in 2021 and at a relatively low level in recent 6 years. As of the 30th, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions was 955000 tons. From the perspective of zoning, the shipment speed of Foshan and Wuxi has increased in the short term, the arrival volume is low, and the delivery from the warehouse has warmed up; The inventory in Gongyi area has accumulated slightly, which is mainly based on the increase of downstream consumption. The regional price has a premium compared with other regions, and the arrival volume has increased.

2. import and export data of aluminum industry chain

According to the latest data of the General Administration of customs, China’s imports of unwrought non alloy aluminum in April 2022 were 34900 tons, a month on month decrease of 4600 tons, or 11.55%; A year-on-year decrease of 120700 tons, or 77.59%. From January to April of 2022, the cumulative import of domestic primary aluminum was 131400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 357500 tons, or 73.12%.

In April, the export of primary aluminum was 32000 tons, a month on month decrease of 10200 tons, a decrease of 24.20%, a year-on-year increase of 31600 tons, mainly to the Netherlands. The total export volume was 27400 tons, accounting for 85.49% of the total export volume. The total export volume of other countries (Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam and other countries) was 4700 tons, accounting for 14.51% of the total export volume. In April, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 596700 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 36.5%

3. policy information

In 2022, Shaanxi will further strengthen the work related to industrial energy conservation and carbon reduction in 2022, promote energy efficiency benchmarking in key industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia and calcium carbide, give play to the role of benchmarking and demonstration, promote the technological transformation of energy conservation and carbon reduction in key enterprises, and improve the benchmark level of energy efficiency and the proportion of benchmarking capacity.

Fujian Province has thoroughly implemented the implementation plan for pollution prevention and control, and implemented the national plan for improving the dual control system of energy consumption intensity and total amount. By 2025, the proportion of production capacity and data centers in key industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia and calcium carbide to reach the benchmark level of energy efficiency will exceed 30%. We will step up the elimination of backward production capacity and the elimination of excess production capacity, promote the green transformation and upgrading of traditional industries such as thermal power, steel, cement, petrochemical and chemical industry, promote the new development of the building materials industry, and guide the transformation from blast furnace converter long process steelmaking to electric furnace short process steelmaking.

Yunnan power grid issued the notice on liberalizing the power load of early limited electrolytic aluminum in Dali and Wenshan areas. The notice points out that the water supply in Yunnan Province is better than expected, and the small power generation capacity in Huangping area of Dali continues to increase. In combination with the favorable factors such as the commissioning of Wenshan 500kV Tianxing Substation Phase II on June 20, it is decided to fully release the power load of the Limited electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Dali and Wenshan areas from now until the end of the flood season on the premise that the replacement of capacity indicators is in place. It is beneficial to the production speed of Yunnan Aluminum Yixin, Yunnan Qiya, Yunnan Hongtai and other projects.

Aftermarket forecast

Domestic transportation conditions have gradually improved, market circulation has begun to return to normality, downstream consumer demand has a rising momentum, and it is expected that the price of aluminum ingots will be strong in the short term.

1、 Price data

As of May 29, the average ex factory price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8293.25 yuan / ton, up 0.45% from 8255.75 yuan / ton on May 23. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8200-8400 yuan / ton.

As of May 29, the average ex factory price of domestic locally refined straight run naphtha was 8165.00 yuan / ton, up 0.74% from 8105.00 yuan / ton on May 23. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight run naphtha was about 8100-8300 yuan / ton.

On May 29, the naphtha commodity index was 102.35, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.86% from the highest point 121.64 in the cycle (March 10, 2022), and up 142.31% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The local refined naphtha price was slightly lower this week, the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the terminal demand was not significantly positive, the market transaction was general, and the refinery shipment was positive.

Upstream: as the international crude oil price rises, the EU’s oil ban on sanctions against Russia has been delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remains unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. OPEC will adhere to the oil production agreement reached last year at the meeting on June 2, increasing the daily output by 432000 barrels in July, rejecting the Western call for faster production increase to reduce soaring oil prices. As the epidemic situation in Asia gradually eases, demand expectations tend to improve. However, the economic recession, the tightening of monetary policy and the spread of monkeypox virus have increased the uncertainty of oil demand prospects, which has led to pressure on oil prices to a certain extent.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business community, toluene rose broadly this week. On May 23, the price was 7810 yuan / ton, and on May 29, the price was 7910 yuan / ton, up 1.28% from last week. The price of mixed xylene rose this week. On May 23, the price was 7830 yuan / ton, and on May 29, the price was 7880 yuan / ton, up 0.64% from last week. In the PX market, the market price of paraxylene was stable this week, and the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9900 yuan / ton by the end of the weekend.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the energy analysts of business agency, the rising international crude oil price and the naphtha market cost support, but the market trading is general, and the terminal is not significantly good. The market just needs to purchase. The market is in a strong wait-and-see mood, and it is cautious to catch up. It is expected that the naphtha refining in the near future may be dominated by consolidation.

1、 Price trend

Ethylene glycol prices fluctuated in the low range this month. According to the data of business agency, on May 27, the average p value of oil based ethylene glycol was 4966.67 yuan / ton, down 41.66 yuan / ton compared with the previous statistical cycle.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of cost, the crude oil market is constrained by many factors. On the one hand, the expectation of tight global oil supply and rising demand has boosted the oil market. On the other hand, the market is still worried that the economic recession and high oil prices will curb oil demand. Brent crude oil futures fluctuated broadly around $110 / barrel in the month.

However, the operating rate of ethylene glycol decreased slightly within the month. At present, eg is economically poor. The cogeneration unit tends to EO Production, and the manufacturers mainly supply contract goods. The port inventory is still at a high level. As of May 26, the total inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China was 1184500 tons. The port shipment was poor, the spot supply was still sufficient, the domestic epidemic spread at many points, the logistics transportation and demand improvement process was blocked, and the downstream manufacturers were careful to stock up.

3、 Forecast: the double weak situation of ethylene glycol supply and demand is difficult to change, and the undervalued market will continue.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business agency, as of May 26, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 17500 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, up 4.17% compared with the same period last year

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, as of May 26, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 21166.67 yuan / ton, down 1.55% from the beginning of the week and 7.7% from the same period last year

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of refrigerant R22 was temporarily stable, the price of raw material chloroform continued to fall, the cost support became weaker, the downstream air conditioning industry did not reach the peak season, the demand was still not high, and the price of R22 was stable and fell. At present, the price of raw hydrofluoric acid is mostly 11730 yuan / ton, the price of chloroform is about 5487.5 yuan / ton, and the market price of R22 is mostly in the range of 17000-18000 yuan / ton. The quotation in Shandong is about 17000-17500 yuan / ton, that in Zhejiang is about 17000-17500 yuan / ton, that in Hunan is about 17500-18000 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is about 18000 yuan / ton.

The market of refrigerant R134a weakened this week, and the quotation of enterprises continued to decline, with the lowest price of about 18500 yuan / ton, and the market focus shifted downward. The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid fluctuates little, the price of trichloroethylene drops sharply, the cost support continues to weaken, the logistics has not been fully recovered, and the output and sales of the automobile industry are poor, the demand continues to be weak, the enterprise shipment is not smooth, the price reduction and inventory arrangement are the main, the actual transaction is lower than the offer, and the transaction is light. Up to now, the price of raw hydrofluoric acid is about 11730 yuan / ton. The market quotation of R134a is mostly in the range of 18300-25000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is lower than the offer. The quotation in Zhejiang is about 19000-25000 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is about 17000-17500 yuan / ton, that in Hunan is about 18500-19000 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is about 20500 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, on May 26, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market was temporarily stable, the operation of on-site devices was stable, the supply of goods was normal, and the market price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid was stable. The recent rise of fluorite price had a certain supporting impact on the hydrofluoric acid Market. In addition, the operating rate of downstream refrigerant industry was still at a low level, the actual demand was at a low level, and the purchase of hydrofluoric acid was limited, and the refrigerant price trend fell recently, However, the recent operation of hydrofluoric acid plant is stable, and it is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will be mainly stable.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of the business community, the cost demand is weak, the market transaction atmosphere is light, and the overall focus of the refrigerant market moves downward. It is expected that there will be no positive factors in the short term. It is expected that R22 and R134a will continue to operate in a weak position, which is easy to fall but difficult to rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic hips on May 25 was 12333.33 yuan / ton, down 0.27% from 12366.67 yuan / ton on Wednesday (18th) and 9.09% from the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the hips market has weakened and the price has fallen slightly. The raw material styrene fluctuated and fell. In addition, the demand side was always weak. Both the buyer and the seller were on the sidelines. The merchant’s quotation mostly followed the market, and the mentality was negative. Hips market is generally stable and fluctuates in a narrow range. So far, the ex factory price of hips is mostly about 11400-14100 yuan / ton, and the price of GPPS 525 is mostly 10200-11500 yuan / ton. The PS market fluctuates slightly during the week.

In the international crude oil market, on May 24, the international crude oil futures rose and fell, and the market was still high. U.S. WTI crude oil futures fell, and the settlement price of the main contract was US $109.77/barrel, down US $0.52 or 0.47%; Brent crude oil futures rose slightly, and the settlement price of the main contract was US $113.56/barrel, up US $0.14 or 0.12%. There was little change in market fundamentals. Under the background of the Fed’s interest rate hike, the future economic uncertainty increased, and the market’s concern about the demand outlook offset the expectation of oil supply shortage.

In terms of raw materials, on May 24, the reference price of styrene was 10241.67, an increase of 5.22% compared with May 1 (9733.33). The international crude oil market is expected to rise, the downstream demand is slightly insufficient, and the cost and pressure of styrene coexist. Generally speaking, if the raw material level rises next week, the styrene market will follow the rise.

3、 Future forecast

The business agency believes that the current cost level fluctuates and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the hips market will fall steadily in the short term.

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether Market showed a trend of rising first and then stabilizing, and the market price in Henan was relatively strong. According to the monitoring data of Henan news agency, the average price of methyl ether rose by 43.00 yuan / ton on February 24, compared with the average price of 410.00 yuan / week on February 24.

As of May 24, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

Region, Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi Province, 4370 yuan / ton

Hebei Province, 4500 yuan / ton

Henan Province, 4250 yuan / ton

Recently, the domestic dimethyl ether Market has entered the consolidation stage after rising. At present, the price of dimethyl ether in Henan market is relatively strong, and the prices in Shandong and Hebei markets are stable and upward. At present, there are obvious positive factors in the market. Although the raw material methanol market is sideways consolidated, the civil LPG market rebounds driven by the rise of international crude oil, which is good for the market mentality. In addition, there is no obvious pressure on the shipment in Henan market, the mentality is relatively strong, and the price is mostly stable.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2655 yuan / ton on May 24, down 0.19% from the previous trading day and 0.56% year-on-year. On May 24, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell violently, and the main contract ma2209 closed at 2726 yuan / ton, down 87 yuan / ton compared with the closing of the previous trading day. The raw coal price and oil price are strong, and the downstream Tianjin Bohai Chemical MTO is expected to be put into operation, and the supply side is relatively abundant at present. Supply and demand game, methanol market or shock consolidation.

At present, the raw material methanol market fluctuates in a narrow range, and the civil price of related products liquefied gas is slightly adjusted back, which brings some support to the market. The shipment situation in Henan market is mild, and the manufacturer’s mentality is relatively strong. However, with the arrival of the traditional off-season, the terminal demand is expected to be weak, which has brought some restraint to the dimethyl ether Market. It is expected that the price of dimethyl ether market will continue to consolidate in the short term.