1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 fell this week. The average price of domestic PVC was 7348.75 yuan / ton last Friday and 6850 yuan / ton this Friday. The price fell by 6.79% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic spot market of PVC continued to decline this week. Futures prices fell today, dampening sentiment in the spot market. The wait-and-see mood of downstream enterprises and traders is obvious, downstream procurement is cautious, orders are mainly received on demand, and the delivery and transaction of PVC spot market is general. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone is mostly around 6450-7100 yuan / ton.

In terms of international crude oil, the price of international crude oil futures plummeted on July 5. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $99.50 / barrel, down $8.93 or 8.2%;, The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $102.77 / barrel, down $10.73 or 9.5%. Oil prices recorded the largest one-day decline since March, with Brent down nearly 10%, mainly due to the rising market concerns about the global economic recession, pressure on the commodity sector, and bearish energy commodities such as crude oil. Taking into consideration, under the premise of tight supply and demand, the driving force of sharp decline is not very strong, but the oil market may intensify the shock in the future, the amplitude will increase, and the market risk will also increase.

In terms of calcium carbide, on July 8, the average price of calcium carbide was 3850 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.32% compared with the average price of 3800 yuan / ton on July 1. The factory prices of calcium carbide manufacturers were mostly stable this week, and the prices of some enterprises rose. The price of blue carbon in the upstream fell slightly, the cost support weakened, the PVC market in the downstream fell slightly, and the demand for calcium carbide weakened. It is expected that in the short term, the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will temporarily stabilize and consolidate.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

PVC analysts of business agency believe that the spot price of PVC fell this week. At present, the demand of PVC spot market is light. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly receiving orders on demand, and the transaction atmosphere is general. Futures prices fell today, dampening sentiment in the spot market. It is expected that the PVC market will operate weakly and stably in the short term.

Summary of precious metal spot price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver market in early trading on July 7 was 4191.67 yuan / kg, down 4.55% from the average price of 4391.67 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (July 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 4770 yuan / kg, a decrease of 12.12%.

On July 7, the spot market price of gold was 377.02 yuan / g, a daily decrease of 2.16%, which was 3.41% lower than the average early market price of 395.54 yuan / g at the beginning of the month (July 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 1.25%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Policy Overview

1. Domestic news

The central bank today conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 3 billion yuan, with the bid winning interest rate of 2.10%, unchanged from the previous period. As 80billion yuan of reverse repo expired today, 77billion yuan of net withdrawal was achieved on that day.

At the end of June, China’s gold reserves were reported at US $113.8 billion; China’s foreign exchange reserves in June were 3071.27 billion US dollars, expected to be 3113 billion US dollars, with a previous value of 3127.78 billion US dollars, a decrease of 56.51 billion US dollars month on month.

2. International news

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the meeting. Among them, most officials of the Federal Reserve believe that the growth risk tends to be downward, and it may take some time to reduce the inflation rate to 2%. If inflation continues, the Fed believes that a “more restrictive” level of interest rates is possible. Fed officials believe that the FOMC meeting in July will raise interest rates by 50 basis points or 75 basis points, and expect economic growth to rebound in the second quarter.

The Russian State Duma (the lower house of parliament) passed a bill stipulating that information about the size of Russia’s gold and foreign exchange reserves should be classified as state secrets. In addition, in order to reduce foreign currency deposits in banks, Russia allows banks to implement negative interest rates on foreign currency deposits of legal entities.

Aftermarket forecast

In terms of international policy, the expectation that some central banks in the world will significantly raise interest rates and the monetary policy of major central banks as a whole will be tightened is intensifying. In particular, the Federal Reserve will control inflation by raising interest rates, and the price of interest-free asset precious metals is under pressure. Precious metal prices are expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term.

At the beginning of July, the domestic propane market rose steadily, and the Shandong market rebounded slightly. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6025.75 yuan / ton on July 1 and 6050.75 yuan / ton on July 6, with an increase of 0.41% during the period and 25.06% over the same period last year.

As of July 6, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region, July 6th

South China, 5700-5850 yuan / ton

North China, 3000-6150 yuan / ton

Shandong region, 5950-6100 yuan / ton

Northeast China, 6100-6250 yuan / ton

At the beginning of the month, the domestic propane market remained stable on the whole, and the propane Market in Shandong increased by a narrow margin. With the introduction of CP price in July, propylene and butane fell, but the decline was less than expected, which brought relative support to the domestic market. In addition, the price of international crude oil market rose, which was good for the market mentality in terms of cost. The downstream market entry enthusiasm is mild, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable. At present, the upstream inventory of Shandong market is mostly in a controllable state, and most manufacturers are mainly supporting prices.

Saudi Aramco announced in July 2022 that both propylene and butane fell. Propane was $725 / ton, down $25 / ton from the previous month; Butane was $725 / ton, down $25 / ton from the previous month.

At present, the market price of propane in Shandong is mostly around 6000 yuan / ton, the upstream inventory is temporarily pressureless, and the downstream market entry atmosphere is slightly improved. However, with the sharp decline of international crude oil, the bad market mentality on the news side has significantly restrained the rebound market. In addition, there is no improvement in terminal demand. It is expected that the price of propane market may weaken in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business news agency, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 216666.67 yuan / ton on January 1, 2022. As of June 30, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 473333.34 yuan / ton, and the market rose 118.46% in half a year.

In the first quarter, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market rose steadily, with a quarterly increase of 120.92%. In January, the price of raw material spodumene was high, the price of lithium carbonate kept rising, and lithium hydroxide actively followed the rise of raw materials. The superposition of supply and demand performed well, and the market operated strongly. In February, the cost support was still strong, the overall operating rate of the market was about 60%, the supply side was tight, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry and procurement was ok, and the lithium hydroxide market continued to rise. In March, the price of raw materials was high, and the demand for lithium hydroxide from downstream high nickel manufacturers increased. The price of lithium hydroxide rose steadily. At the end of the month, the pace of market trading was slightly slower, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong.

In the second quarter, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market first fell and then rose, with a quarterly decline of 1.11%. In April, the upstream lithium carbonate Market weakened, some manufacturers released new capacity, the overall supply increment, the domestic downstream spot purchase demand slowed down, and the performance of high nickel was poor. Due to the downward impact of lithium carbonate price and slightly weak demand, the high level of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market loosened and the price fell slightly. In May, the foreign lithium hydroxide market price was relatively strong, the domestic market demand side was light, and the market was weak and stable. In the second half of the month, with the price of upstream lithium carbonate rising slightly, the cost side support increased, the supply increased slightly, and the construction of downstream high nickel material plants recovered slightly, but the market purchasing mentality was cautious. In June, the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream increased slightly, which raised the support for the lithium hydroxide Market, increased the market supply, slightly increased the enthusiasm of inquiry in the downstream, and the market rose steadily. In the late ten days, there was little demand for high nickel, the enthusiasm of market inquiry and procurement weakened, the market transaction atmosphere was flat, and the price of lithium hydroxide operated stably.

The price of lithium carbonate in the upstream increased steadily after stabilizing in June 2022 according to the price monitoring of the business community. On June 30, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 459000 yuan / ton, which was 1.77% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 451000 yuan / ton on June 1). On June 30, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 478000 yuan / ton, up 1.49% from the average price at the beginning of the month (June 1, the average price of carbon in East China was 471000 yuan / ton).

The lithium hydroxide analyst of business club believes that in July, the cost side support is still there, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is general, and the market transaction is just in need. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market may be stable, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the guidance of market news.

From June 24 to July 1, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene increased slightly, from 7777 yuan / ton last weekend to 7805 yuan / ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.36%.

On June 30, the price of international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $105.76 / barrel, down $4.02 or 3.7%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $109.03 / barrel, down $3.42 or 3.04%. The main reason was that the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (opec+) confirmed that its production increase in August was consistent with the previously announced increase, and the supply tension was expected to ease slightly, and the oil price was under pressure.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

June 6, 9500.,+200

June 8, 9700.,+200

June 10, 10000.,+300

June 22, 9800.,-200

June 27, 9600.,-200

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene was reduced by 200 yuan / ton on June 27, 2022, and 9600 yuan / ton was implemented.

Other enterprises: Jingbo Petrochemical quote 9350 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical quote 9300 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical quote 9353 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quote 9400 yuan / ton, Hongrun Petrochemical quote 9450 yuan / ton.

This week, the hydrogenated benzene market fluctuated, and the overall price increased slightly. Boosted by the strong crude oil and styrene prices at the beginning of the week, the domestic pure benzene market operated strongly at the beginning of the week, and the market performed well. Later, as crude oil and styrene weakened, Sinopec lowered its listing price by 200 yuan / ton, putting downward pressure on the pure benzene market. The trend of benzene hydrogenation enterprises was basically stable in the first half of the week, and the price was slightly corrected in the second half of the week due to the weakness of pure benzene. As of the weekend, crude oil continued to be under pressure, the focus of pure benzene market negotiation fell, and the market price fell again. The domestic price of pure benzene was 9250-9600 yuan / ton. On the whole, although there are many negative factors in the pure benzene market at present, the downstream demand starts to release with the price of pure benzene falling, and the sales of pure benzene is acceptable. Fundamental crude oil is still in a high consolidation trend, and it is expected that pure benzene prices will remain in a high consolidation trend, with limited downward space, boosted by demand.

The crude benzene market maintained a high consolidation trend this week. Shandong implemented 7880-7885 yuan / ton, an increase of 10 yuan / ton compared with last week. The fluctuations in other domestic regions this week were relatively small, and the overall concentration was 10-50 yuan / ton. In terms of coking enterprises, the recent sharp decline in coke has affected the profits of coking enterprises. Coking enterprises have taken the initiative to limit production. At present, the general production limit is about 30%, and the supply of crude benzene is reduced compared with the previous period. Boosted by the reduction in output, although the basic market this week is slightly under pressure, the bidding price of crude benzene this week remains high and volatile. In the future, the business news agency believes that although the downstream hydrogenation benzene enterprises have suffered losses recently and have some resistance to high priced crude benzene, the recent commencement of hydrogenation benzene enterprises is OK, the demand for crude benzene still exists, and the recent supply of crude benzene is tight. It is expected that the recent trend of crude benzene will be mainly high-level consolidation, with limited downward space.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate Market was at a high level this week, with limited changes in spot prices. As of July 1, the average price of domestic potassium sulfate 50 particles was 5566.67 yuan / ton, up or down 0% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week.

This week, the momentum of the domestic potash fertilizer market has weakened, and the operating rate of potassium sulfate Mannheim enterprises has stabilized, with the overall operating rate of about 45%, and the on-site supply is tight. In terms of potassium chloride, the domestic potassium price fell steadily, the procurement of downstream enterprises such as potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate slowed down, while the arrival of border trade surged, the supply of potassium chloride was expected to increase, the spot offer was loose, and the support for processing potassium sulfate enterprises was weakened. At present, the on-site offer of potassium sulfate is temporarily stable, there are few new orders of potassium sulfate, the trading is general, and the on-site inventory rises.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of business agency believe that the high price of domestic potassium sulfate is strong this week, and the market of potassium chloride is falling. Domestic potassium sulfate cost side support is loose, the demand side follow-up is general, and the supply side maintains a flat tight pattern. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic potassium sulfate price may fall due to the falling cost and weak demand.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of June 29, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 12700.00 yuan / ton. In June, the price of DMF was narrow and strong. From 12550 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 12700 yuan / ton at the end of the month, the price at the beginning of the month increased by 1.2% compared with that at the end of the month, or about 100 yuan / ton. As a whole, the price in June was narrow, and the mainstream price range was 12500-12700 yuan / ton.

From June 13 to June 20 in the first ten days of June, the domestic DMF price was weak, the mainstream price range was 12500-13000 yuan / ton, the transaction atmosphere was ok, the negotiation atmosphere was positive, the manufacturers shipped smoothly, the downstream just needed to purchase, the logistics was smooth, and the upstream methanol: the average price of the domestic methanol market was 2715 yuan / ton. Recently, the oil price fell, and the methanol futures market of plastics, PP and other commodities fell. In terms of spot, the production cost of methanol has weakened slightly, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The domestic methanol market may be stable in the near future.

In the middle of June, the domestic DMF price operated smoothly. At present, the mainstream price range is 12500-13000 yuan / ton. The transaction atmosphere is acceptable, the negotiation atmosphere is positive, the manufacturers’ shipment is smooth, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the logistics is smooth. Upstream methanol: as of June 20, the domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range. The price was relatively higher, rising first and then falling. The main reason was that the market demand improved and the receiving price rose. However, after the methanol futures fell in the middle of the week, the trading atmosphere became weaker, and the atmosphere of the domestic methanol spot market was light, and the price fell slightly.

From late June to June 23, the domestic DMF price has been running smoothly. At present, the mainstream price range is 12500-13000 yuan / ton, the transaction atmosphere is acceptable, the negotiation atmosphere is positive, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the logistics is smooth. Upstream methanol: as of June 20, the domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range. The price was relatively higher, rising first and then falling. The main reason was that the market demand improved and the receiving price rose. However, after the methanol futures fell in the middle of the week, the trading atmosphere became weaker, and the atmosphere of the domestic methanol spot market was light, and the price fell slightly.

Chemical commodity index: on June 28, the chemical index was 1165 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 16.79% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 94.82% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the analysts of business agency DMF, it is expected that the DMF market will operate stably in July, with a narrow range of strong operation. (if you want to know more about the latest market trends of the industrial chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business club to obtain commodity information and master commodity prices)

According to the data monitored by the business club, the average price of domestic rubber grade premium white carbon black was 6325.00 yuan / ton as of June 29. In June, the overall market for white carbon black operated smoothly with little price change. The price was mainly stable. The cost of white carbon black was supported to a certain extent. The downstream just needed to purchase, and the willingness to prepare goods was not strong. At present, the market supply was normal, the market transaction atmosphere was general, and the overall market maintained a balance between supply and demand, The price fluctuates little.

In the first ten days of May, the market price of white carbon black was stable from June 6 to June 10. Compared with the same period last week, there was no change in the price. The overall market supply and demand was balanced. The downstream just needed to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics was smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere was flat. The upstream hydrochloric acid: mainly operated stably. The recent market price of upstream liquid chlorine was adjusted at a high level, with general cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market was adjusted at a high level, and the price of polyaluminum chloride was adjusted at a low level, The downstream purchase intention is average.

In mid May, the market price of white carbon black was stable from June 13 to June 17. Compared with the same period last week, there was no change in the price. The overall market supply and demand was balanced. The downstream just needed to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics was smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere was flat. The price of upstream hydrochloric acid: domestic hydrochloric acid fell slightly. The average market price fell from 287.50 yuan / ton last weekend to 275.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 4.35%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year increase was 19.57%. On June 16, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 72.37, unchanged from yesterday, down 47.52% from the highest point 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 302.50% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

In late May, the market price of white carbon black was stable. Compared with the same period last week, there was no change in the price. The overall market supply and demand was balanced. The downstream just needed to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics was smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere was flat. The upstream hydrochloric acid: as of June 24, the upstream cost of hydrochloric acid was generally supported, the downstream ammonium chloride market was high, the price of polyaluminum chloride was low, and the downstream purchase intention was general, In the short term, the hydrochloric acid market will mainly operate stably.

Chemical commodity index: on June 28, the chemical index was 1165 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 16.79% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 94.82% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

According to the white carbon black analyst of business agency, it is expected that the white carbon black market will mainly operate stably in the short term, which can improve the balance of market supply and demand, and the range of price fluctuation is limited. (if you want to know more about the market dynamics of the industrial chain, you are welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business club, obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 fell sharply within 7 days. On June 20, the average price of domestic PVC was 8385 yuan / ton, and on June 27, the average price was 7472.5 yuan / ton. The price fell by 10.88% within 7 days.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the PVC domestic spot market continued to decline, and the futures price fell for 13 consecutive working days, dampening the sentiment of the spot market. At present, the confidence of PVC spot market is still insufficient. Downstream enterprises and traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. They are cautious in taking goods, have a weak willingness to purchase, and have a poor delivery in the PVC spot market. As of the 27th, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone is mostly around 7050-7800 yuan / ton. The quotation of Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang is relatively high, around 7700-7800 yuan / ton.

International crude oil. On June 27, the price of international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $109.57/barrel, up US $1.95 or 1.81%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $110.98/barrel, up US $1.88 or 1.72%. The market is mainly affected by the expectation of supply tightening.

Ethylene, internationally, on June 27, Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted 981 US dollars / ton; CFR Southeast Asia quotation is USD 1101 / ton. On June 27, the U.S. ethylene market was $572 / ton. Recently, the U.S. ethylene market has been stable with average demand. As of the 27th, the domestic ethylene market price was around 7900 yuan / ton. Manufacturers’ shipping atmosphere was light, and the main force maintained a cautious offer.

As for calcium carbide, as of the 27th, the average ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers of calcium carbide was 3833.33 yuan / ton. Within 7 days, the factory price of calcium carbide manufacturers fell slightly. The price of raw material blue carbon fell slightly, the cost support of calcium carbide weakened, but the downstream PVC market fell slightly, the downstream demand weakened, and the power for calcium carbide to rise was insufficient. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fall in a narrow range in early July.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

PVC analysts of business club believe that at present, PVC is in the off-season, domestic demand is weak, and market transactions are poor. The accumulated inventory is obvious, the market confidence is insufficient, the downstream is cautious in taking goods, and the operating rate is not high. It is expected that the PVC market will be weak and stable in the short term.

1、 Price data

As of June 26, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8701.00 yuan / ton, down 1.05% from 8793.25 yuan / ton on June 20. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8600-8700 yuan / ton.

As of June 26, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic locally refined straight run naphtha was 8400.00 yuan / ton, down 1.83% from 8556.67 yuan / ton on June 20. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight run naphtha was about 8400-8500 yuan / ton.

On June 26, the naphtha commodity index was 107.39, unchanged from yesterday, down 11.71% from the highest point 121.64 in the cycle (March 10, 2022), and up 154.24% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the local refining naphtha price fell at a high level, the international crude oil price fell, the naphtha market cost support was limited, the market mentality was pessimistic, the terminal demand was not significantly positive, and the refineries continued to reduce prices and actively shipped.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fell, the market returned to fundamentals, and the crude oil supply price was under tight support. However, affected by the expectation of interest rate hike by many central banks across the country, the market was worried about the economic recession, and the oil price was still fluctuating in the range. The US inflation in May exceeded expectations. The CPI soared to 8.6% year-on-year. The US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike of 75 basis points also set a record. The fear of further increasing the risk of global economic recession, coupled with the uncertainty of the epidemic, has led to major changes in market expectations. The dollar rose again, risky assets were sold off again, and the stock market, bulk commodities and other fields fell on a large scale. Crude oil bears the brunt. It is already at a relatively high level in history. Under the condition that the tight supply situation has not changed, the panic has dealt a heavy blow to the oil price.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business community, toluene continued to decline this week. On June 17, the price was 9060 yuan / ton, and on June 24, the price was 8570 yuan / ton, down 5.41% from last week. Mixed xylene continued its decline this week, and the price fell broadly. On June 17, the price was 8840 yuan / ton, and on June 24, the price was 8270 yuan / ton, down 6.45% from last week. In the PX market, the market price of paraxylene was stable this week. By the end of the week, the ex factory price of domestic paraxylene was 10900 yuan / ton, up 67.69% year-on-year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the energy analysts of business agency, the international crude oil price fell, the naphtha market cost support was limited, the market trading was cautious, the wait-and-see mood was strong, the terminal demand was not significantly good, and the refineries cut prices and shipped. It is expected that naphtha refining in the near future may decline slightly.