According to the monitoring data of business society, as of April 19, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol is 11766 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on April 15, 2022 (propylene glycol ex factory reference price of 12533 yuan / ton), the average price is reduced by 767 yuan / ton, down 6.12%. Compared with the price on April 1, 2022 (propylene glycol ex factory reference price of 14133 yuan / ton), the average price is reduced by 2367 yuan / ton, down 16.75%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that in April, under the influence of public health events, logistics and transportation in some parts of China were not smooth, the downstream demand for propylene glycol recovered slowly, and the market price of propylene glycol went down all the way. This week, the follow-up of downstream demand was still limited, and the new orders were general. On the 18th and 19th consecutive days, propylene glycol factories adjusted the ex factory price of propylene glycol again, with a reduction range of 500-1000 yuan / ton, Although the propylene glycol units in some regions have shutdown maintenance plans and the propylene glycol inventory has decreased moderately, the market continues to be weak, and the early inventory has accumulated. Therefore, the support performance of the supply side is general. The propylene glycol market is greatly restricted by the demand side, and the overall supply and demand conduction block of the market appears. As of April 19, the ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol is around 11500-12000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 6.12% in the two days of the week. At present, the atmosphere of propylene glycol on-site trading is light, and the downstream goods are prepared carefully, focusing on actual order negotiation.

On the upstream propylene oxide side, the recent (4.11-4.18) propylene oxide market fell. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has been consolidated and operated, with certain support on the cost side. The supply side devices are mainly stable, the demand side is cold, and the reduction follow-up is mainly. The market trading atmosphere is weak. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 11566.67 yuan / ton as of April 18, down 3.88% compared with the price on April 1 (propylene oxide price reference 12033.33 yuan / ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, the downstream demand of propylene glycol recovers slowly. The propylene glycol data division of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is mainly sorted and operated in a narrow range. In the long term, the downstream demand will be improved after the logistics and transportation are restored one after another. With the support of demand, the propylene glycol market can mostly recover and operate in the low valley. The specific trend also needs to pay more attention to the basic changes of supply and demand and the follow-up of new orders.

1、 Price data

As of April 17, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8065.75 yuan / ton, down 2.98% from 8313.25 yuan / ton on April 11. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8000 yuan / ton.

As of April 17, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 7882.50 yuan / ton, down 2.75% from 8105.00 yuan / ton on April 11. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 7900 yuan / ton.

On April 17, the naphtha commodity index was 99.55, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.16% from the highest point of 121.64 in the cycle (2022-03-10), and up 135.68% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha continued to fall this week. At present, the demand for olefins and aromatics in naphtha terminals is weak, affected by public health events in many places in China, transportation is limited, refinery shipments are blocked, and the market wait-and-see mood is strong.

Upstream: international crude oil prices rose, and it was reported that the EU might draft a bill banning the import of Russian oil. The expectation of oil product shortage caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine surfaced again, and the oil price was strongly supported. The escalating geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine has led to the rise of oil prices. Under the background of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Russia, as the world’s second largest oil exporter, has been expected to be interrupted due to Western sanctions, and the price trend of crude oil market has risen.

The price of toluene fell by 7350 yuan on March 15 of last week, compared with 7150 yuan on March 15 of this week. Mixed xylene fell broadly this week. The price was 7420 yuan / ton on April 8 and 7130 yuan / ton on April 15, down 3.91% from last week. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene this week was temporarily stable, and the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton by the end of the weekend.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the rise of international crude oil prices supports the naphtha market. At present, the naphtha market has strong wait-and-see mood, weak terminal demand, the impact of public health events in many domestic places, limited transportation, and refineries reduce prices and ship goods. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may be dominated by consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6737 yuan / ton on April 11 and 6737 yuan / ton on April 15. The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

Chlorinated paraffin 52 prices were generally stable this week. The supply of chlorinated paraffin is acceptable, but the downstream demand is general. The raw material market is stable and the cost support is good. The price of chlorinated paraffin in Shandong decreased, and the market in other regions was stable. As of April 15, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is about 7000 yuan / ton, that in Shaanxi is about 6800 yuan / ton, that in Northeast is about 6700 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is about 6150 yuan / ton.

Crude oil market, on April 14, the international crude oil futures price closed up. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $106.95/barrel, up US $2.70 or 2.6%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $111.70/barrel, up US $2.92 or 2.7%. As of Thursday, oil prices rose for three consecutive times, rising nearly 9% on the weekly line. It is reported that the EU may draft a bill banning the import of Russian oil. The expectation of oil product shortage caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has surfaced again, and the oil price has been strongly supported.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax rose steadily this week, the liquid wax shipped smoothly, and the transaction was OK. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the liquid chlorine market is stable this week. Due to the epidemic situation, the transportation is greatly affected and the goods are not transported smoothly.

3、 Future forecast

According to the chlorinated paraffin analyst of business society, at present, the cost support of chlorinated paraffin is good, the demand side performance is low, and the chlorinated paraffin is generally weak and stable. It is expected that the market of chlorinated paraffin will run smoothly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of soda ash is stable and small this week. The average price of light soda ash rose to 2612.2 yuan / week over the same period last year. On April 13, the commodity index of light soda ash was 133.97, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.15% from the highest point of 189.10 in the cycle (2021-11-07), and up 112.15% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of soda ash is stable and small this week. The mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2600-2700 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2700-2800 yuan / ton. Data show that the overall operating rate of soda ash during the week is 88.01%, and the output of soda ash during the week is 583400 tons.

Demand: according to the monitoring of business society, the glass price rose slightly this week. The average price of glass on Monday was 24.44 yuan / m2, and the average price on the weekend was 24.54 yuan / m2. The price increased by 0.41% during the week. The North China market is mainly organized and operated. Most of the Shahe area is still closed due to the impact of the epidemic, and the overall inventory is high. The overall market trading situation of the market in East China is general, more wait-and-see, the pressure of logistics and transportation still exists, and the market price is relatively stable. The overall production and sales in Central China are acceptable, and the price of glass market is stable. Individual enterprises in South China’s glass spot market have raised their prices, mainly just in need of procurement.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the 14th week of 2022 (4.4-4.8), there were two kinds of commodities rising, two kinds of commodities falling and one kind of commodity rising or falling to zero. The main commodities rising are: caustic soda (9.04%), light soda ash (0.48%); The main commodities falling were calcium carbide (- 4.89%) and PVC (- 0.22%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.88%.

Analysts of the business society believe that: soda ash market operates stably and slightly, the market trading atmosphere is acceptable, and there are many appropriate purchases in the downstream. Due to the impact of public health events, the transportation is not smooth. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term soda ash consolidation market will operate, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the chloroform market has remained high and strong since April (4.1-4.13). As of April 13, the price of chloroform apron in Shandong was 5925 yuan / ton, stable.

According to the business agency, the shutdown of 380000 T / a methane chloride unit in Dongyue on April 9 and the shutdown of Jinling Dawang unit since March have led to a slight decline in the overall operation of domestic methane chloride units and alleviated the pressure on the supply side.

In April, the price of raw methanol fell again, and the cost support was weak. According to the business agency, as of April 13, the price of methanol was 2812 yuan / ton, down 8.39% from 3070 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The downstream refrigerant production and sales are not smooth, the plant operating load is low, and the demand for chloroform is weakened.

Analysts of methane chloride data of business society believe that at present, the support of downstream demand for trichloromethane is weakened, and the price of raw methanol has fallen sharply. It is expected that the price of trichloromethane may fall in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of caustic soda is running well. On April 6, the average price of Shandong market was 1166 yuan / ton, and on April 12, the average price of Shandong market was about 1260 yuan / ton. The price increased by 8.06%, and the price increased by 169.52% compared with the same period last year. On April 11, the caustic soda commodity index was 176.98, unchanged from yesterday, down 33.33% from the highest point 265.47 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 171.82% from the lowest point 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Caustic soda prices are running well. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1100-1300 yuan / ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation of 32% liquid alkali in Hebei is about 1200-1400 yuan / ton. Some caustic soda enterprises have little inventory pressure in the near future, so they start to operate with reduced load.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the 14th week of 2022 (4.4-4.8), there were two kinds of commodities rising, two kinds of commodities falling and one kind of commodity rising or falling to zero. The main commodities rising are: caustic soda (9.04%), light soda ash (0.48%); The main commodities falling were calcium carbide (- 4.89%) and PVC (- 0.22%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.88%.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda is mainly in good operation, and some caustic soda enterprises have little pressure on load reduction and inventory in the near future. The downstream has a good enthusiasm for trading and investment in the near future, which is affected by public health events and transportation. It is comprehensively expected that the subsequent consolidation of caustic soda is mainly based on the operation of the market, depending on the demand of the downstream market.

1、 Price summary on April 8:

The quotation of Shijiazhuang refining and chemical company is 7200 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical Company is 7250 yuan / ton,

Yangba offers 7450 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical offers 7300 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical offers 7250 yuan / ton,

Changling Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 7550 yuan / ton,

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, the market was bearish, the supply and demand fundamentals were still affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the market was worried about the long-term impact of the release of oil reserves on the market, and the international oil price rebounded.

Today, the price of toluene in South China of Sinopec decreased by 100 yuan / ton.

Although crude oil rebounded last Friday, under the influence of domestic public health events, logistics and transportation were blocked, gasoline prices continued to fall, toluene market fundamentals were weak, operators’ mentality was poor, and prices weakened.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 2953.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2930.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.78%, up 38.64% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On April 8, the urea commodity index was 136.28, down 0.93 points from yesterday, down 5.73% from the highest point 144.57 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 145.11% from the lowest point 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is increased, and the urea supply is sufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea is quoted at 3150 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2860 yuan / ton this weekend, down 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2900 yuan / ton this weekend, down 35 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Yangmei plain urea is quoted at 2870 yuan / ton this weekend, which is 20 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 7374.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7216.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 2.14%, up 109.16% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; Coal prices have risen slightly recently. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly. The quotation increased from 4936.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4953.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.34%, a year-on-year increase of 25.83% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 11933.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 11766.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.40%.

From the perspective of demand: strong agricultural demand and normal industrial demand. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer has entered the peak season, and dealers take goods actively. However, affected by the epidemic, urea shipment is blocked and freight rates rise sharply. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant, plate plant and melamine plant is high, and the bargain hunting is followed up appropriately. In terms of supply, the urea plant in Shanxi resumed production, the urea supply increased, and the daily output returned to more than 160000 tons. At the same time, many departments have taken measures to ensure the orderly release of agricultural materials supply and light storage sources, and the policy of ensuring supply and stable price remains unchanged. On the whole, the cost of urea is generally supported, the downstream demand increases, the supply of urea increases, and the aftermarket urea fluctuates mainly in a narrow range.

The future price of urea is bearish

In the middle and early April, the domestic urea market may fluctuate and fall slightly, dominated by consolidation. Urea analysts of business society believe that the upstream market fell slightly and the cost support is general. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer has entered the peak season. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant and plate plant is high, and the downstream demand increases. On the whole, the cost support of urea is weakened, the downstream demand is good, the urea supply is normal, and the future urea is dominated by a slight shock and decline.

Aluminum price lowered on April 7

According to the data of business agency, on April 7, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 22036.67 yuan / ton, a daily decrease of 2.02%, a year-on-year increase of 25.76%, down 3.09% from the average market price of 22740 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (4.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1), an increase of 8.18%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 9.09% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 17.89% recently.

Main reasons for aluminum price reduction on April 7

1. According to the inventory data, the main social inventory has remained above 1 million tons in the near future. At present, it has risen slightly, and the inventory is about 1.075 million tons; According to the delivery data of major regions, the domestic weekly delivery volume increased month on month and decreased year on year, and the delivery volume of Wuxi, Shanghai and Shenyang decreased slightly.

2. The price is high in the early stage, with 23000 yuan mark. After many games between the supplier and the demander, the downstream operating rate is narrowed and the supplier is suppressed in the short term.

1、 Price summary of mixed xylene on April 2:

Qingdao refinery offers 7200 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang Refinery offers 7050 yuan / ton,

Jiujiang Petrochemical offers 7700 yuan / ton, and Yangba offers 7600 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 7700 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical quoted 7650 yuan / ton,

Changling refinery offers 7800 yuan / ton,

Shandong Jingbo Petrochemical offers 7300 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 7500 yuan / ton, and Hongrun offers 7250 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

 
3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, the EU announced that it would speed up the formulation of a new round of sanctions against Russia, but there was still no agreement among Member States. In addition, market participants are worried about the slowing demand of public health events, and oil prices are under pressure.

Today, the price of mixed xylene in Sinopec South China was reduced by 250 yuan / ton.

During the festival, crude oil rose as a whole, and the price of mixed xylene in outer Asia rose with it. The domestic market is affected by public health events and other factors, the logistics and transportation are limited, the actual transaction in the market is light, and the mentality of the operators is poor.