1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the price of pure benzene rose continuously this week, with the price exceeding 10000 yuan. On June 2, the price of pure benzene was 8850-9300 yuan / ton (average price: 9167 yuan / ton). On Friday (June 10), the price of pure benzene was 9900-10050 yuan / ton (average price: 9984 yuan / ton). The average price increased by 8.91% compared with last week and 28% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Pure benzene rose strongly this week. External factors: recent strong rise in international crude oil and strong cost support. In addition, due to the strong increase in gasoline demand in the United States, a large number of toluene and xylene are required to invest in gasoline components, the disproportionation consumption is sharply reduced, the output of by-product pure benzene is significantly reduced, and the price of pure benzene in meijinpan is rising, driving the rise of pure benzene in Asia. Positive external news gave strong support to the domestic pure benzene market. Domestic factors: due to the high external price, the import of pure benzene in East China ports decreased, and the inventory continued to drop to 48000 tons. The lack of deliverable inventory led to strong short selling sentiment, and the prices in some parts of East China continued to rise. In the early stage of the main refinery, due to production cost factors, the output of pure benzene decreased and the price remained high. With multiple positive effects, pure benzene exceeded 10000 yuan.

This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 700 yuan / ton to 10000 yuan / ton.

In terms of external trading, Asian pure benzene rose in a wide range this week. On Thursday (June 9), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was $1452 / ton, up $91 / ton year-on-year, or 6.69%; The reference import price in East China was USD 1445 / T, with a year-on-year increase of USD 95 / T or 7.04%.

In terms of crude oil, due to the arrival of the peak driving season in the United States, driving demand growth, as well as the tightening of supply expectations under the background of Western sanctions against Russia, this week’s rise was dominated. As of June 10, Brent rose $2.29 per barrel, or 1.91%; WTI rose $1.8/barrel, or 1.51%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene rose broadly this week. The price was 10381.43 yuan / ton on June 2 and 11100 yuan / ton on June 10, up 6.92% from last week and 22.43% from the same period last year. The continuous rise of crude oil price has raised the prices of pure benzene and ethylene, resulting in the rise of styrene cost. There are many styrene enterprises in the site with equipment maintenance and supply reduction, which is conducive to the rise of styrene market. Styrene market transactions were acceptable, and spot prices continued to rise.

Aniline: boosted by the positive cost side, aniline rose continuously this week. On June 10, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12500 yuan / ton, up 5.51% over last week and 30.64% over the same period last year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In terms of crude oil, the short-term oil price is still running at a high point, with little change in supply and demand fundamentals. Supply tightening expectations and demand growth support oil prices. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions, etc. on crude oil prices.

Downstream: the main downstream product styrene: the international crude oil market is still at a high level, and the downstream is generally in general mood to take over the high price styrene. The cost and pressure of styrene coexist. Generally speaking, if the raw material level rises next week, the styrene market will follow suit.

The short-term crude oil and the external market are still at a high level, and under the influence of the external market high price, the East China port will continue to maintain a low inventory state. However, under the pressure of high cost, economic production reduction in the downstream and the arrival of summer maintenance season for main products will lead to negative demand for pure benzene in the future. In general, pure benzene still operates at a high level, but there is no lack of callback possibility. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market price trends, domestic logistics and transportation, and the dynamics of pure benzene and downstream devices on prices.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the domestic PA66 market maintained a weak and stable decline in the first ten days of June, and the spot prices of various brands were mostly reduced. As of June 9, the ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of the business club was about 25000 yuan / ton on average, up or down by -2.91% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic adipic acid price fluctuates in a narrow range. On the demand side, the adipic acid trading is not ideal, the domestic supply is abundant, and the port arrival level is average, so the overall support effect on PA66 spot is limited.

The upstream raw material adipic acid market fluctuated, adiponitrile market was abundant, and PA66 cost side support was poor. In terms of industrial operating rate, due to the continuous pressure on the profits of PA66 enterprises, the load level of domestic PA66 industry has decreased recently, but on the whole, the range is limited. The spot supply in the market is abundant, and the supply pressure is difficult to solve. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. On the demand side, at present, the terminal enterprises tend to follow up with the goods to maintain production, and have strong resistance to the high price supply. Although the health incidents in East China have been greatly alleviated and the logistics situation in many places has gradually recovered, the demand of domestic downstream factories has shrunk, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the merchants have great resistance to shipment. The transaction on the floor declined, and the seller’s mentality was not good, so he continued to give up profits.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the analysts of business agency, the spot price of PA66 fell in early June. The market of adiponitrile at the raw material end fluctuated weakly, and the cost side support of PA66 was poor. The load of PA66 enterprises was reduced in a narrow range, the pattern of sufficient supply in the yard remained unchanged, and the inventory pressure of enterprises and midstream increased. The demand side is short of goods, so it is expected that PA66 will continue to be affected by the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, since the end of May, the domestic DDGS market has declined weakly, and the mainstream quotation has fallen below 2900 yuan / ton. On May 25, the average market price of domestic DDGS was 2940 yuan / ton. On June 8, the average market price of domestic DDGS was 2883 yuan / ton, down 1.93%.

Demand supports domestic DDGS market to continue to rise

Since the end of May, the demand for terminal aquatic feed has gradually weakened, the market transaction is general, the alcohol factories are not confident in raising prices, and they have lowered the DDGS ex factory prices one after another. The domestic DDGS market fell weakly, falling to 2900 yuan / ton, a drop of more than 1%. Since June, the domestic DDGS market continued to decline until after the Dragon Boat Festival, the domestic DDGS price fell to 2880 yuan / ton, a decrease of nearly 2%.

Li Bing, an agricultural product analyst at the business community, believes that: the demand for terminal aquatic feed has become weak, and the negative pressure has been exerted, and the domestic DDGS will still be weak and downward in the future.

In May, the domestic dimethyl ether Market weakened as a whole, and the price showed a trend of twists and turns. The overall fluctuation range of Henan market price was limited. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4215.00 yuan / ton on May 1, and 4100.00 yuan / ton on May 30, with a decrease of 2.73% in the month, a decrease of 1.36% compared with April 1.

As of May 30, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

Region, Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi region, 4270 yuan / ton

Hebei region, 4100 yuan / ton

Henan region, 4100 yuan / ton

In May, the overall trend of domestic dimethyl ether Market was weak, and the price of dimethyl ether in Henan market showed a downward upward downward trend. During the May Day holiday, affected by the poor delivery, the manufacturer lowered the ex factory price to make profit for delivery. Subsequently, the market price of raw methanol rebounded, and the price of civil gas, a related product, rose driven by crude oil, which brought obvious support to the market, and the price of dimethyl ether continued to rise slightly. However, by the end of the month, affected by the insufficient terminal demand, the dimethyl ether Market returned to a weak position again, and the price fell.

In May, the domestic methanol market was still depressed. Although the rebound of raw coal prices has been supported, the low price of imported goods and the stalemate of downstream negotiations have limited the fluctuation of methanol prices. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 2745 yuan / ton at the beginning of May, and 2617 yuan / ton at the end of May. The price fell by 4.64% during the month and 2.06% year-on-year.

At present, the market price of raw material methanol is weak, and the civil price of related products liquefied gas is adjusted in a narrow range, which brings limited support to the market. The overall market supply is low, and the manufacturer’s inventory is relatively controllable. However, with the arrival of the traditional off-season, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the downstream market entry enthusiasm is limited, which has significantly hindered the dimethyl ether Market. It is expected that the price of dimethyl ether market may continue to decline in June.

From May 27 to June 2, 2022, the market price of antimony ingots in East China was temporarily stable. The price was 80000 yuan / ton last weekend and 80000 yuan / ton this weekend, flat.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the concept of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent upward trend of the antimony ingot Market around the Spring Festival entered a stable period in mid March, entered a downward channel in mid April, slowed down at the end of April and stabilized in May.

Price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe this week (unit: USD / ton)

varieties., May 27, June 2, Up and down

European small metal antimony, 13800.,13600.,- two hundred

This week, the price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe continued to decline, but the overall downward trend slowed down. As of June 2, the price was $13600 / ton, which was lowered by $200 / ton weekly, and the market atmosphere was still weak.

This week, the price of antimony ingots was temporarily stable after falling, the price was stable, the market sentiment was mostly bearish, the downstream demand was depressed, which affected the market mentality of antimony ingots. The fundamentals had little change in the near future, especially the downstream demand for antimony oxide had not been significantly improved, and the downstream price depression mentality was also strong. Although the smelting and refining plants had a strong price support mentality in the near future, it was difficult to release the downstream demand, and the overall market mentality was greatly affected. However, the downstream antimony oxide manufacturers purchase at a lower price, and the price of antimony ingots remains stable and weak.

Price trend of antimony oxide this week (unit: yuan / ton)

varieties., May 27, June 2, Up and down

99.5% antimony trioxide, 69500.,69500., 0

99.8% antimony trioxide, 71500.,71500., 0

This week, the domestic antimony oxide market price was temporarily stable, but the overall market sales situation was still weak, and the support for antimony ingots was limited.

The supply and demand side dragged down, and the price of chloroform fell sharply in May. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of May 31, the price of chloroform apron in Shandong was 3350 yuan / ton, down 38.95% from 5487 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Since May, the start-up of domestic methane chloride plant has been raised to around 80-90%. Jinling unit in Shandong operates at 90% load, Dongyue unit operates at full load, Luxi unit operates at 80% load, and the start-up of Liwen, Meilan, Juhua and other enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is at the same high level. In addition, Dongying Huatai’s new 160000 T / a methane chloride unit in the last phase is planned to be put into operation in the near future, which further increases the domestic supply pressure.

In May, the spot price of raw methanol decreased slightly, and the cost side weakened slightly. According to the business agency, as of May 31, the price of methanol was 2617 yuan / ton, down 4.64% from 2745 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The production and sales of air conditioners are shrinking, and the demand for refrigerant is insufficient. The start-up of refrigerant R22 plant continues to be low, and the demand side is weak.

Future forecast: the analysts of the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the overall chloroform market is weak due to the lower cost and weaker downstream demand. However, after the sharp decline in May, the risk of chloroform decline is gradually reduced. It is expected that the price of chloroform will be weak and volatile in the later period.

The supply and demand side dragged down, and the price of chloroform fell sharply in May. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of May 31, the price of chloroform apron in Shandong was 3350 yuan / ton, down 38.95% from 5487 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Since May, the start-up of domestic methane chloride plant has been raised to around 80-90%. Jinling unit in Shandong operates at 90% load, Dongyue unit operates at full load, Luxi unit operates at 80% load, and the start-up of Liwen, Meilan, Juhua and other enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is at the same high level. In addition, Dongying Huatai’s new 160000 T / a methane chloride unit in the last phase is planned to be put into operation in the near future, which further increases the domestic supply pressure.

In May, the spot price of raw methanol decreased slightly, and the cost side weakened slightly. According to the business agency, as of May 31, the price of methanol was 2617 yuan / ton, down 4.64% from 2745 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The production and sales of air conditioners are shrinking, and the demand for refrigerant is insufficient. The start-up of refrigerant R22 plant continues to be low, and the demand side is weak.

Future forecast: the analysts of the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the overall chloroform market is weak due to the lower cost and weaker downstream demand. However, after the sharp decline in May, the risk of chloroform decline is gradually reduced. It is expected that the price of chloroform will be weak and volatile in the later period.

On June 1, the price of raw material dissolving pulp was expected to rise, and the comprehensive cost remained high. Some viscose staple fiber manufacturers raised their offer by 300-500 yuan / ton. Some manufacturers maintained their early quotations, and some even offered 16000 yuan / ton. However, the actual negotiation space was different according to the order, and the consignment atmosphere was deadlocked. The price of cotton yarn is stable, the shipment is general, the downstream orders are limited, and the yarn inventory is still large.

Trend chart of viscose staple fiber price

According to the price monitoring of the business club, as of June 1, 2022, the ex factory quotation of 1.2d*38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 15500 yuan / ton, 280 yuan / ton higher than yesterday’s price, a daily increase of 1.84%. The average ex factory price of cotton yarn (30s, ring spinning, first-class product) is 19100 yuan / ton, and the price is stable.

Supply and demand market

Recently, the overseas market is good, the domestic market trading atmosphere is general, the supply of viscose staple fiber remains in a tight balance, and the inventory is relatively fast. However, the price of conductive viscose staple fiber in the yarn factory is limited, the terminal demand has not improved, and the downstream orders are limited. At present, the stock of finished human cotton yarn is accumulated, local logistics is not smooth, the spot delivery of the yarn factory is still blocked, and the price negotiation is high.

Aftermarket forecast

Recently, foreign dissolving pulp devices have changed greatly and the supply has been continuously tight. There is still room for the rising of dissolving pulp, the cost has been pushed up, and it is difficult for viscose staple fiber factories to make concessions. However, the demand for textile terminals continues to be flat, difficult to improve, and the trading has always been general. Analysts from the business community predict that the price of viscose staple fiber will be stable, medium and strong, running at a high level.

In May, the aluminum price decreased first and then increased

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on May 31 was 20760 yuan / ton, down 0.32% from the average market price of 20826.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (5.1), and up 10.48% from the average market price of 18790 yuan / ton in the same period last year.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots was 24240 yuan / ton, and the recent deviation from the peak value fell by 14.36%. Starting from the recent recovery (december13,2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 10.06% in the recent period.

Introduction to aluminum ingot fundamentals in May

1. Social inventory of aluminum ingots in May

In May, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions remained within the range of 900000-980000 tons, close to the level of the same period in 2021 and at a relatively low level in recent 6 years. As of the 30th, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions was 955000 tons. From the perspective of zoning, the shipment speed of Foshan and Wuxi has increased in the short term, the arrival volume is low, and the delivery from the warehouse has warmed up; The inventory in Gongyi area has accumulated slightly, which is mainly based on the increase of downstream consumption. The regional price has a premium compared with other regions, and the arrival volume has increased.

2. import and export data of aluminum industry chain

According to the latest data of the General Administration of customs, China’s imports of unwrought non alloy aluminum in April 2022 were 34900 tons, a month on month decrease of 4600 tons, or 11.55%; A year-on-year decrease of 120700 tons, or 77.59%. From January to April of 2022, the cumulative import of domestic primary aluminum was 131400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 357500 tons, or 73.12%.

In April, the export of primary aluminum was 32000 tons, a month on month decrease of 10200 tons, a decrease of 24.20%, a year-on-year increase of 31600 tons, mainly to the Netherlands. The total export volume was 27400 tons, accounting for 85.49% of the total export volume. The total export volume of other countries (Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam and other countries) was 4700 tons, accounting for 14.51% of the total export volume. In April, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 596700 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 36.5%

3. policy information

In 2022, Shaanxi will further strengthen the work related to industrial energy conservation and carbon reduction in 2022, promote energy efficiency benchmarking in key industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia and calcium carbide, give play to the role of benchmarking and demonstration, promote the technological transformation of energy conservation and carbon reduction in key enterprises, and improve the benchmark level of energy efficiency and the proportion of benchmarking capacity.

Fujian Province has thoroughly implemented the implementation plan for pollution prevention and control, and implemented the national plan for improving the dual control system of energy consumption intensity and total amount. By 2025, the proportion of production capacity and data centers in key industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia and calcium carbide to reach the benchmark level of energy efficiency will exceed 30%. We will step up the elimination of backward production capacity and the elimination of excess production capacity, promote the green transformation and upgrading of traditional industries such as thermal power, steel, cement, petrochemical and chemical industry, promote the new development of the building materials industry, and guide the transformation from blast furnace converter long process steelmaking to electric furnace short process steelmaking.

Yunnan power grid issued the notice on liberalizing the power load of early limited electrolytic aluminum in Dali and Wenshan areas. The notice points out that the water supply in Yunnan Province is better than expected, and the small power generation capacity in Huangping area of Dali continues to increase. In combination with the favorable factors such as the commissioning of Wenshan 500kV Tianxing Substation Phase II on June 20, it is decided to fully release the power load of the Limited electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Dali and Wenshan areas from now until the end of the flood season on the premise that the replacement of capacity indicators is in place. It is beneficial to the production speed of Yunnan Aluminum Yixin, Yunnan Qiya, Yunnan Hongtai and other projects.

Aftermarket forecast

Domestic transportation conditions have gradually improved, market circulation has begun to return to normality, downstream consumer demand has a rising momentum, and it is expected that the price of aluminum ingots will be strong in the short term.

1、 Price data

As of May 29, the average ex factory price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8293.25 yuan / ton, up 0.45% from 8255.75 yuan / ton on May 23. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8200-8400 yuan / ton.

As of May 29, the average ex factory price of domestic locally refined straight run naphtha was 8165.00 yuan / ton, up 0.74% from 8105.00 yuan / ton on May 23. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight run naphtha was about 8100-8300 yuan / ton.

On May 29, the naphtha commodity index was 102.35, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.86% from the highest point 121.64 in the cycle (March 10, 2022), and up 142.31% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The local refined naphtha price was slightly lower this week, the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the terminal demand was not significantly positive, the market transaction was general, and the refinery shipment was positive.

Upstream: as the international crude oil price rises, the EU’s oil ban on sanctions against Russia has been delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remains unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. OPEC will adhere to the oil production agreement reached last year at the meeting on June 2, increasing the daily output by 432000 barrels in July, rejecting the Western call for faster production increase to reduce soaring oil prices. As the epidemic situation in Asia gradually eases, demand expectations tend to improve. However, the economic recession, the tightening of monetary policy and the spread of monkeypox virus have increased the uncertainty of oil demand prospects, which has led to pressure on oil prices to a certain extent.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business community, toluene rose broadly this week. On May 23, the price was 7810 yuan / ton, and on May 29, the price was 7910 yuan / ton, up 1.28% from last week. The price of mixed xylene rose this week. On May 23, the price was 7830 yuan / ton, and on May 29, the price was 7880 yuan / ton, up 0.64% from last week. In the PX market, the market price of paraxylene was stable this week, and the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9900 yuan / ton by the end of the weekend.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the energy analysts of business agency, the rising international crude oil price and the naphtha market cost support, but the market trading is general, and the terminal is not significantly good. The market just needs to purchase. The market is in a strong wait-and-see mood, and it is cautious to catch up. It is expected that the naphtha refining in the near future may be dominated by consolidation.