According to the monitoring of business agency, the price index of domestic rare earth market has declined. Recently, the rare earth market has continued to fall. Recently, the price of domestic praseodymium neodymium series has fallen sharply, and the price of terbium Series in heavy rare earth market has continued to fall. On April 1, the rare earth index was 862 points, down 16 points from yesterday, down 14.40% from the highest point 1007 in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 218.08% from the lowest point 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).
This week, the price trend of domestic light rare earth market continued to decline, and the price of praseodymium neodymium series, the mainstream of rare earth market, fell sharply. In terms of products:
It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic metal neodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, metal praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have declined. As of the 2nd day, the price of neodymium oxide in rare earth in China was 965000 yuan / ton, down 9.81%; The price of neodymium was 1.21 million yuan / ton, down 9.36%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 945000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 5.97%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 905000 yuan / ton, down 8.59%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 1.12 million yuan / ton, a decrease of 8.20%; The price of metal praseodymium was 1.22 million yuan / ton, with the price falling by 8.61%, and the trend of domestic rare earth market fell sharply.
The price of rare earth in the domestic market fell sharply, mainly due to the relatively light downstream procurement and consumption of inventory. In addition, affected by the epidemic, some downstream production was affected and downstream demand was limited. In addition, affected by the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the downstream magnetic material enterprises continued to reduce inventory, the demand for spot procurement was weak, and the trend of rare earth market fell. Due to the decrease in demand, the supply of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide of some large upstream groups is normal, the demand for permanent magnet changes little, and the new energy industry is relatively normal. The downstream magnetic material enterprises continue to reduce inventory, the market wait-and-see mood is strong, the demand for spot procurement is weak, and some trading enterprises continue to ship at low prices. The sales of new energy vehicles are normal, the demand for rare earth is normal, the delivery of rare earth oxides is poor, and the price drops. The rare earth metal factory is more cautious in purchasing without lock orders, and the market price of rare earth in the field continues to fall.
The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing, and the peak season of rare earth demand is over. However, the launch of relevant policies in the rare earth industry is expected, and the market price of rare earth is still supported. At present, the inventory of neodymium praseodymium oxide is much lower than that in the early stage, and the buyers are affected by the mood of buying up or not buying down, and the price in the floor is declining. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in March 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 1.422 million and 1.43 million respectively, up 4 times and 3.6 times month on month, down 44.5% and 43.3% year-on-year. The automobile production and sales have declined. Recently, the demand in the field of new energy is normal, the delivery situation in the domestic light rare earth market is poor, and the price continues to decline. Affected by this, the price trend of domestic heavy rare earth market accelerated to fall.
As can be seen from the trend chart, the price of dysprosium Series in China fell sharply. As of the 2nd day, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.6 million yuan / ton, down 8.93%; Dysprosium ferroalloy price was 2.59 million yuan / ton, down 8.96%; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.665 million yuan / ton, a decrease of 8.03%; The price of terbium Series in China has declined. The price of terbium oxide in China is 13 million yuan / ton and the price of metal terbium is 16.75 million yuan / ton. The price trend of heavy rare earths has declined, the transaction market in the domestic rare earth market has fallen, and the leading magnetic material factory has not actively purchased, which has led to the decline of the domestic heavy rare earth market. Due to the insufficient raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the areas where light rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places, the reduction of this part of supply has little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in the areas where light rare earth mines are used. However, Myanmar’s export is limited, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated, Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on products in the domestic heavy rare earth market. Recently, the on-site procurement is not active, and the on-site heavy rare earth price trend has fallen sharply.
In addition, the national policy supports the rare earth market. The first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022 are in line with expectations, and the industry pattern continues to be optimized. On the 28th, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the ore indicators and smelting separation indicators were 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the index is in line with expectations, and the state is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply index. The first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators in 2022 are + 20% year-on-year, and the growth rate is lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year + 27.3% / 27.6%). It is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still focused on light rare earths. Among the mining indicators in 2022, rock ore type rare earths (mainly light rare earths) were 89310 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 23.2%, and ionic rare earths were 11490 tons, with a year-on-year balance. It is expected that the increment will be concentrated in light rare earths, which will be a long-term trend, and there is still support from domestic rare earths.
Although the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth is guaranteed in terms of demand, the recent downstream procurement is relatively negative, the accumulation of rare earth enterprises is increasing, the recent on-site transaction market is cold, and the supply enterprises will continue to restart in the later stage. Chen Ling, a business analyst, predicts that the price trend of rare earth market will continue to decline in the later stage.