1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride rose this week. As of February 20, the average price of maleic anhydride by benzene hydrogenation remained at 14166.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.19% compared with the average price of 14000.00 yuan / ton on February 14, and an increase of 26.11% compared with the same period last month.

On February 20, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 133.45, unchanged from yesterday, down 19.82% from the highest point of 166.43 in the cycle (2021-12-15), and up 160.75% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started to decline this week. Recently, the downstream unsaturated resin market price is high and the operation is slow. As of the 20th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 13500 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 13500 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 14000 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 13500 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 14000 yuan / ton. With the end of the Winter Olympics, the spot supply will increase.

Upstream, the price of pure benzene continued to decline this week. The average price of pure benzene was 8130 yuan / ton on February 11 and 7690 yuan / ton on February 18, down 440 yuan / ton or 5.41% from last week. This week, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong fell, from 8025 yuan / ton on February 10 to 7750 yuan / ton on February 17, down 275 yuan / ton. In terms of n-butane, the price in Shandong was 6980 yuan / ton as of February 20.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that at present, the domestic maleic anhydride market is at a high level, the downstream resin manufacturers start slowly, the price is high, the just need to purchase is general, and the high price of maleic anhydride is under pressure. With the end of the Winter Olympics, the spot supply will increase. It is expected that the recent maleic anhydride market will be dominated by high-level consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on February 18 was 9666.67 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton from 9866.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 2.03% during the week and up 91.42% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The phosphoric acid market was generally stable this week, with individual adjustments. This week, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus was temporarily stable and the support was OK. Most phosphoric acid enterprises returned to the market. Except for some areas in the North affected by the Winter Olympic Games, the commencement was delayed and the overall commencement of the market increased gradually, but the downstream demand continued to wait-and-see, the heat of inquiry was not high, and the trading was not warm. According to the monitoring of business agency, the current quotation in Sichuan is 9500-10000 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is about 9000-9500 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 10500-11000 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 10500-11500 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is 9500-12000 yuan / ton.

region product Specifications date Price (yuan / ton)

Sichuan region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade February 18th 9500-10000

Yunnan region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade February 18th 9000-9500

Jiangsu region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade February 18th 9500-12000

Hubei region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade January 30th 10500-11000

Shandong region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade January 30th 10500-11500

Recently, the domestic phosphorus ore market has been steadily sorted out and operated, the downstream demand has been launched one after another, and the market change in the field is limited. The quotation of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant in Guizhou is around 660-680 yuan / ton, the price of 28% grade phosphate rock freight plant is around 580-630 yuan / ton, the quotation of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant in Guangxi is around 630-680 yuan / ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate rock freight plant is around 570-630 yuan / ton. Phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mainly adjust and operate in a stable and narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

On February 17, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 32375.00, an increase of 0.39% compared with February 1 (32250.00). Recently, the domestic yellow phosphorus market price has been stable. The overall market trading situation is acceptable, there are many downstream inquiries, mainly just need replenishment, and the transaction of new orders is limited. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will mainly run at a high level in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of the chemical branch of business society, at present, most enterprises have started work, and the raw material price is temporarily stable, while the downstream market remains on the sidelines and just needs to purchase. It is expected that the phosphoric acid price will continue to maintain a stable trend in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, in mid February, the domestic PA66 market continued to operate weakly, and the spot prices of various brands fell. As of February 17, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 35000 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 2.78% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, adipic acid market operates steadily, some markets are slightly loose, dealers’ offer is still high, and manufacturers are still generally very competitive. The price of raw material pure benzene is high and the cost support is obvious. It is expected that the high level of adipic acid market will stabilize in the near future. The overall supply of adiponitrile is still tight, citing the domestic production cost of PA66.

The price of adipic acid, the raw material in the upstream, is loose in a narrow range, the supply of adiponitrile is limited, and the cost side support of PA66 is acceptable. Recently, the operating rate of the industry has been at a high level, and the load level of domestic PA66 industry has basically returned to normal. The inventory position in Hong Kong is not high, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is limited. In terms of demand, the current buyer’s follow-up situation is biased towards the just need to maintain production, and the transaction resistance of high-priced goods sources has increased. The smooth flow of goods in the venue is poor, the seller’s mentality is affected, and the offer continues to yield profits.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 continued to fall in mid February. The supply of adiponitrile at the raw material end has not improved, the adipic acid market returns high and narrow, and the cost side support of PA66 is OK. The load of PA66 enterprise returned to normal and was in a high position, and the support of the supply side to the spot was weakened. Downstream users have a deep resistance to the supply of high priced goods. At present, the downstream demand is sluggish and the trading atmosphere on the floor is poor. It is expected that PA66 may maintain a stable and weak market in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic hips on February 11 was 11733.33 yuan / ton, up from 11233.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 4.45% during the week and 4.76% month on month.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of raw styrene rose first and then fell, and the cost side supported the rise of hips price. The benzene market also rose simultaneously. After the Spring Festival, the market gradually recovered, downstream enterprises started one after another, the demand increased, the market trading atmosphere improved, the cost and demand side supported, and the hips price increased. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream ex factory price of hips was mostly about 11400-14300 yuan / ton, and the price of benzene was mostly 9600-10500 yuan / ton. The PS market rose steadily during the week.

In the international crude oil market, the price of international crude oil futures rose sharply on February 11. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $93.10/barrel, up US $3.22 or 3.6%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $94.44/barrel, up US $3.03 or 3.3%. Oil prices hit a new high in more than seven years, mainly due to the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which exacerbated concerns about the shortage of global energy supply.

In terms of raw materials, the market price of styrene rose first and then fell this week, with a small overall decline. On February 7, East China styrene closed near 9050-9350 yuan / ton. On February 11, it was 8850-9000 yuan / ton, down near 200-300 yuan / ton. The above is the tank price in Zhangjiagang. On February 7, South China styrene closed at 9300-9350 yuan / ton. On February 11, it was 8800-8850 yuan / ton, down by 500 yuan / ton. The delivery price of the above factories.

3、 Future forecast

The business community believes that after the Spring Festival, the hips market is rising, but the raw material styrene is still in a state of excess fundamentals, and the probability is weak. Therefore, it is expected that the hips market will be generally stable and watch carefully.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of sulfur (granular sulfur) in East China this week was stable and upward. The quotation of sulfur was 2170 yuan / ton on February 11. Compared with 2150 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, it increased by 0.93% during the week and 3.50% month on month.

The domestic sulfur market continued to rise, the downstream sulfuric acid market continued to improve and the progress of phosphate fertilizer was stable. The shipment of sulfur enterprises was smooth, and the mentality of the operators was positive. During the week, refineries in various regions raised their quotations according to their shipment and inventory. The price of sulfur fixation increased significantly in North China, and increased by 20 yuan / ton in East China and Shandong at the same time; The price of liquid sulfur fluctuated significantly. The price of liquid sulfur in Shandong and East China increased by 130-150 yuan / ton, while the price of liquid sulfur in North China increased by 300-330 yuan / ton. The price of sulfur particles in China as of February 11 is as follows:

region varieties February 7th February 11th Rise and fall

East China Sulfur (particle) 2140-2230 yuan / ton 2160-2250 yuan / ton 0

North China Sulfur (particle) 1870-2060 yuan / ton 2120-2310 yuan / ton two hundred and fifty

Shandong region Sulfur (particle) 2110 yuan / ton 2130 yuan / ton twenty

The downstream phosphate fertilizer market was reorganized and operated. On Monday, the ammonium market trend was stable, the atmosphere in the venue was mainly wait-and-see, the amount of enterprises to be issued was sufficient, and the manufacturers had the intention to raise the price in the future. Diammonium rose slightly during the week, the fertilizer storage market improved, the market demand increased, and the buying gas in Northeast China was good. However, due to the large number of early orders, some enterprises suspended receiving orders. From the perspective of supply and demand performance, the market of ammonium phosphate is stable and good.

According to the sulfur analyst of business society, the domestic port has a small amount of arrival and circulation, and the on-site cargo holders have a strong intention to support the price. Coupled with the positive support of the downstream market, the inventory of domestic sulfur refineries is not under pressure, and the enterprise shipment is smooth. It is expected that the sulfur market will continue to operate at a high level in the future, and pay attention to the market follow-up.

2.14 aluminum price callback

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on February 14 was 22710 yuan / ton, down 1.03% per day, up 5.17% from the average market price of 21593.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (2.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton in early January (January 1), it increased by 11.49%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen 6.31% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 21.49% recently.

Main cause of callback

On the 11th, the aluminum price began to callback at a high level, interrupting the continuous rising market in the early stage.

The recent correction of aluminum price, on the one hand, is based on the rapid rise of aluminum price in a short time after the festival, and the downstream undertaking is weak; According to insiders, the aluminum price exceeded 23000 yuan / ton last week, and the market turnover decreased sharply. On the other hand, considering the Winter Olympics after the festival, the resumption rate of downstream aluminum rod plants and profiles in the northern region was lower than expected. Affected by the rise of aluminum price, the overall mood of replenishing and preparing warehouses in the downstream was not high, and the centralized resumption time of processing plants was in the second half of this month.

Future forecast

After the quarter, the aluminum price rose sharply. After breaking through 23000 points, the long short game intensified, the downstream wait-and-see mood was strong, and the taking of goods decreased sharply. It is expected that the recent high-level shock operation will be dominated.

Aluminum price callback on the 11th

According to the data of business agency, on February 11, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 22946.67 yuan / ton, down 1.53% per day, up 6.27% from the average market price of 21593.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (2.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton in early January (January 1), it increased by 12.65%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 5.34% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 22.75% recently.

Main driving force of strong operation

Yesterday, the aluminum price broke through 23000 yuan / ton again and began to callback today. On the one hand, the total inventory of the company is 26690 tons, which is lower than that of the previous week. LME inventory was 880975 tons, an increase of 119025 tons over the previous trading day.

From a fundamental point of view, the internal and external reasons for the strong aluminum price remain.

There are three internal reasons for the recent strong operation of aluminum price:

1. The circulation of aluminum ingots in some areas of Guangxi has been blocked due to public health events, and the aluminum ingot inventory in Baise has basically changed to the factory inventory; Baise is the largest aluminum production city in Guangxi. According to the data, the completed production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Guangxi is about 2.82 million tons, of which the completed production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Baise is 2.32 million tons, accounting for more than 80% of the total production capacity in Guangxi. However, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in Guangxi has been insufficient due to power and other reasons. By the end of January, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Guangxi was about 1.98 million tons, of which the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Baise was 1.73 million tons, It accounts for 4% – 5% of the national operation capacity.

2. On the cost side, alumina prices rose slightly. Affected by the Winter Olympics, the operating capacity of alumina in Shanxi, Shandong and Henan has been reduced, about 15 million, with an average daily production reduction of 40000 tons. After the festival, there is more inventory digestion, and there is a large demand for replenishment of aluminum plants.

3. From the inventory data, the social inventory accumulation data of the Spring Festival is good. As of July 7, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 866000 tons, which is not much larger than that before the festival. In addition, there are more export orders from downstream enterprises recently, and the market sentiment is rising.

The external factors mainly focus on the production reduction caused by the early European energy problems.

Future forecast

The fundamentals of aluminum ingots have improved and the demand is expected to rise. After the quarter, the aluminum price rose sharply. After breaking through 23000 points, the long short game intensified, the downstream wait-and-see mood was strong, and the taking of goods decreased sharply. It is expected that the recent high-level shock operation will be dominated.

Market price of main domestic hydrogenated benzene Market on February 10 (unit: yuan / ton)

Market, Price on February 10

East China, eight thousand and twenty-five

Shandong Province, eight thousand and twenty-five

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

January 11, 7400.,+100

January 14, 7550.,+150

January 19, 7700.,+150

February 7, 8100.,+400

On February 7, 2021, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene by 400 yuan / ton, 8100 yuan / ton, and Qilu Petrochemical by 8050 yuan / ton.

Other enterprises: Dongming Petrochemical offers 8200 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical 8100 yuan / ton, Jincheng Petrochemical 8250 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical 8103 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical 8100 yuan / ton, Hongrun petrochemical 8450 yuan / ton.

Basically, after the festival, the prices of pure benzene and crude oil rose. Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene to 8100 yuan / ton. Although the crude oil price rebounded slightly near the weekend, the overall industrial chain is still upward. The price of hydrogenated benzene increased with pure benzene. At present, the mainstream ex factory price is 8100 yuan / ton. Crude oil rebounded slightly on the 9th, styrene prices continued to fall on the 10th, and pure benzene weakened slightly with styrene. Today, the mainstream price of domestic pure benzene is 8050-8450 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrogenated benzene also decreased slightly.

Trade name: formic acid

Latest price (February 9): 4566.67 yuan / ton

On February 9, the formic acid market was mainly stable, and the prices of some enterprises increased, up 0.74% compared with the previous trading day and 5.43% compared with the prices on January 9. Recently, the market of methanol, the main raw material, has been operating at a high level, with certain support on the cost side. After the festival, downstream enterprises have resumed work one after another, mainly in need of replenishment, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable.

It is expected that the formic acid market may be stable in the short term

1、 Toluene price summary:

The quotation of Shijiazhuang refining and chemical company is 6100 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical Company is 6100 yuan / ton,

Yangba offers 6250 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical offers 6300 yuan / ton,

Changling refinery offers 6350 yuan / ton,

Shandong Jingbo Petrochemical offers 7500 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, the number of active oil rigs in the United States this week was 497, an increase of 2 month on month and 198 year-on-year, according to the data released by Baker Hughes on the 4th. The market is worried that the severe cold weather in the United States may lead to the interruption of oil supply, adding to the geopolitical tension, and the international oil price continues to rise.

During the Spring Festival, the crude oil market rose broadly, driving the general rise of relevant commodities, and toluene followed the rise of crude oil. Sinopec raised prices in a wide range, the market actively followed the rise, and toluene welcomed the “good start”.