According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market continued to rise on January 27. The average market price in East China was 5424 yuan / ton, up 1.92% from the previous trading day and 42.57% year-on-year. PTA futures 2205 closed at 5496, up 164, or 3.08%.

 

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In terms of supply, two sets of PTA units with a total of 5.3 million tons in East China announced the maintenance plan at the end of February, including 2 million tons of Yisheng Ningbo and 3.3 million tons / year of Yisheng new materials. In addition, the 3.3 million ton new capacity unit of Yisheng new materials phase II is planned to start commissioning on January 28, increasing supply and accumulating inventory. At present, the operating rate of PTA industry is around 86%.

 

Crude oil once again set a new high since October 2014. On January 26, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $87.35/barrel, up US $1.75 or 2.04%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $88.74/barrel, up US $1.66 or 1.90%. Brent crude oil contract in March rose above $90 for the first time since 2014. The main reason is that the supply tension is expected to continue to rise and boost oil prices, the tension between Russia and Ukraine is escalating, and the output increase of OPEC of the organization of petroleum exporting countries is lower than expected.

 

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With the Spring Festival approaching, the downstream polyester construction will fall seasonally, and it is difficult for the demand side to boost the market. The terminal textile enterprises have successively shut down for holidays, the procurement of raw materials has obviously weakened, the actual transactions are rare, most factories have been shut down, and the comprehensive starting rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to about 13%. Polyester factory quotation remained stable, and individual specifications rose slightly.

 

Business analysts believe that crude oil continues to push up PTA, but maintenance at the end of the month coexists with investment in new production capacity, and there is still pressure on the supply side. In addition, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, demand is poor, and PTA prices are expected to continue to rise weakly.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to the commodity data monitoring, the center of gravity of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus is downward. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 4066.67 yuan / ton on January 1 and 32250 yuan / ton on January 26. The price fell by 20.7% during the month.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The price focus of domestic yellow phosphorus market is downward. After the new year’s Day holiday, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus has increased, the overall market is relatively cold, the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, and the transaction of yellow phosphorus market is weak and downward. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching the end of the market, with few new orders and sporadic replenishment. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 31000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 34000 yuan / ton.

 

In terms of phosphate rock, as of January 26, 2022, the reference average price in the mainstream areas of 30% grade phosphate rock in China is around 700 yuan / ton. Compared with January 1 (the ex factory price of phosphate rock is 690 yuan / ton), the average price has increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 1.45%. At present, near the Spring Festival, the operating rate of domestic phosphorus ore mines is low, and the supply of phosphorus ore is still tight. Phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that on the eve of the Spring Festival, the domestic phosphorus ore market will be consolidated at a high level, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

 

In terms of coke, according to the price monitoring of business society, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shanxi increased by 2938 yuan / ton on January 26, an increase of 20.51% compared with January 1 (2438 yuan / ton of secondary metallurgical coke). At present, the on-site inventory is generally low. Downstream steel mills are also expected to increase their production restriction near the East Olympic Games. They purchase coke on demand, and there is still some demand for replenishment near the holidays. On the whole, in the recent environment of weak supply and demand, the coke market is expected to operate stably for the time being.

 

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In terms of phosphoric acid, in January, the domestic phosphoric acid market was running downward. At the end of the month, the market price of phosphoric acid was temporarily stable, and the start-up of enterprises was stable. Some small factories may have holidays in advance. Near the Spring Festival, downstream factories shut down and have holidays one after another, and the replenishment of positions was basically over. Phosphoric acid enterprises often occur in the surrounding areas. According to the monitoring data of business society, the reference price of phosphoric acid was 9966.67 yuan / ton on January 26, down 13.08% compared with January 1 (11466.67 yuan / ton).

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of the business agency, on the whole, the price of yellow phosphorus fell sharply this month. The phosphoric acid market moves downward, the downstream market is more resistant to the high price of yellow phosphorus, and the overall market demand is poor. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and the market is basically stagnant. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be stabilized temporarily in the short term.

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In 2021, the domestic aggregate MDI market rose and fell significantly, with a sharp overall shock. The price trend fluctuated significantly three times, and the mainstream curve showed a “W” trend. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI in East China remained at 18125 yuan / ton on January 1 and 20180 yuan / ton on December 31, with an overall increase of 11.34% in the whole year. The highest price point appeared in the middle of the first quarter, at 27750 yuan / ton on February 26, and the lowest price point appeared at 16775 yuan / ton on June 16, with the maximum amplitude of 39.55% in the whole year.

 

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Specifically, the first sharp price rise and fall occurred in the middle of the first quarter. After the Lunar New Year of the ox, the domestic aggregate MDI market price rose sharply. The price rise lasted more than 10 days. Basically, the quotation remained for only half a day, and increased again on the same day. In March, the guiding prices of Wanhua and keschuang were lower than the market price at that time. For a time, the volume was obvious, and the market price fell. On February 19 after the festival, the market price of domestic polymerized MDI was 19300 yuan / ton. As of March 4, the market price of polymerized MDI was 25750 yuan / ton, an increase of 33.52%. The highest price in the cycle appeared on February 26, 27750 yuan / ton, with an amplitude of 43.78%. From March 1 to March 4, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI fell by 4.98%. Traders generally responded that “a single negotiation mode was opened, the profit margins were basically exhausted, the low-cost goods were sold out, and the price entered the rising track again”. The main reasons are in two aspects: on the one hand, it is the high support of the raw material pure benzene market, on the other hand, it is the shortage of goods for plant maintenance. The heavy bus unit is scheduled to be overhauled on February 27, with a duration of about one month; The technical transformation of Wanhua Yantai plant was successful, and the capacity was expanded to 1.1 million tons / year. Foreign devices: the market has learned that the storage and maintenance plan of Huntsman devices in the United States in the first quarter.

 

However, the good times did not last long. In March, the market fell sharply. The main reason for the sharp decline in the market in March is poor demand and insufficient power. In March, mainstream manufacturers held steady on the price of plug-in brands, and there was little information on the supply side throughout the month, which is of little significance to market guidance. Traders were able to maintain a high level at the beginning of the month, but there was strong resistance in the downstream, and there were few high-level real orders. Traders gradually changed their mentality and turned to low-cost volume and let the price ship. For a time, the price market was slightly chaotic. Near the end of the month, the prices of plug-in brands of most mainstream production enterprises decreased month on month, and the domestic aggregate MDI market fell into a downturn as a whole.

 

The second sharp rise and fall in prices occurred in the middle of the second quarter, mainly because the production enterprises controlled the volume of shipments. The supply of the supplier’s factory to the distributor has been reduced. In addition, the units of Shanghai huntsman and Shanghai BASF have been under maintenance, and the order arrangement is slow. Other factories have strict quantity control and less delivery. This period of rise and fall did not last long and the range was not very large.

 

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The third sharp rise and fall in prices occurred at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter, the traditional peak season of “golden nine and silver ten”. The quotation of manufacturers should be significantly increased. The hurricane in the United States led to the temporary shutdown of foreign MDI devices, and the relative shortage of supply gave rise to the bullish sentiment of traders. However, the lower reaches slightly resisted the high price, the shipment of traders was not smooth, and the market entered a high consolidation period. Some suppliers’ factories store and repair plans in the later stage, and the supply of goods is tight; From September to October, the maintenance of devices in Europe and the Middle East was concentrated, the foreign supply was tightened, and most customers in downstream industries had low inventories. Under the premise of tight supply, the negotiated transaction price gradually pushed up, and the increase was obvious near the end of the month. However, after the National Day holiday, the downstream inquiry mood was not high, mainly digesting the early inventory, the shipment of traders was not smooth, and the aggregated MDI market continued to decline.

 

Towards the end of the year, the domestic aggregate MDI market rebounded slowly, and the weekly price of the factory continued to rise to maintain limited supply; Some suppliers’ factories deliver goods evenly, and the filling of spot goods is slow; Dealers have different attitudes. Mainstream dealers offer prices to maintain stability and negotiate shipment.

 

According to the previous monitoring chart of the aggregated MDI market by the business society, it can be seen that the domestic aggregated MDI market in the past five years was at the high level of the price market in the first quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter, with obvious ups and downs and a certain periodicity. Therefore, after the lunar new year in 2022, the aggregate MDI market is expected to go out of a new situation and open a high market. Throughout the year, the situation will continue according to the high level in the first quarter and the fourth quarter, and the situation sorted out in other periods of time.

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1、 Price trend

 

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As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell sharply this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market fell from 16833.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 13666.67 yuan / ton this weekend, down 3166.66 yuan / ton, or 18.81%. On the whole, isobutyraldehyde market fell sharply this week.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell sharply this week: the ex factory quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde this weekend was 13500 yuan / ton, which was 2500 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng isobutyraldehyde’s ex factory quotation this weekend is 14000 yuan / ton, which is 3300 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 13500 yuan / ton this weekend, down 3700 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

 

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From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde increased slightly this week. The quotation increased from 7886.80 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8192.60 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 3.88%, an increase of 9.43% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support was strengthened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the downstream industrial chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol increased slightly, and the quotation increased from 16520.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 16647.33 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.77%. Neopentyl glycol market rose first and then fell, and the downstream demand is general, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late January may decline slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly and the cost support increased, but there was a downward trend. The downstream neopentyl glycol market rose first and then fell, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market, the isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and decline slightly.

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Price trend

 

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According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of cryolite in Henan decreased slightly this week. On January 21, the average market price in Henan was 7287.50 yuan / ton, a month on month decrease of 0.17% and a year-on-year increase of 21.97%.

 

quotations analysis

 

The domestic cryolite market was sorted out at a high level. During the week, the quotations of enterprises in Henan and Shandong were mainly stable, and individual enterprises decreased slightly according to their own shipments. At present, the supply of cost raw materials is basically stable, which has little impact on cryolite enterprises. Affected by the heating in northern winter, the manufacturer’s limited production and output are reduced, and the price continues to operate at a high level. The field operators hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. As of January 21, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 7000-7600 yuan / ton, and that in Henan is 6700-8700 yuan / ton.

 

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The price trend of upstream soda ash decreased this week. As of January 21, the average market price was about 2187.50 yuan / ton, and the price decreased by 50 yuan / ton during the week, a decrease of 2.23%. This week, soda ash operated weakly, and soda ash manufacturers actively shipped near the Spring Festival, but the actual transaction was limited, the downstream demand was general, just needed to buy, and the market trading atmosphere was weak.

 

Downstream, the aluminum market fluctuated and rose. On January 21, the aluminum price was 21370.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.90% during the week compared with the price of 21180.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week. Near the Spring Festival, the cyclical accumulation effect before and after the festival tests the market tolerance. Recently, the aluminum price trend is good, the social destocking situation is OK, the supply and demand side is improved, and the aluminum price market is strong.

 

Future forecast

 

The domestic cryolite market operates at a high level, and the current situation of limited production of enterprises affected by heating in winter still exists. The downstream needs to purchase near the Spring Festival holiday. The on-site operators are waiting and watching. It is expected that the short-term cryolite trend will continue to operate stably temporarily, and pay attention to the downstream demand.

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Tin continued to rise throughout 2021, and the price of tin nearly doubled. At the beginning of 2021, the average market price in East China was 151887.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the year, the average price was 300037.50 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of 97.54%. In the futures market, LME tin rose by 91.19% in 2021, and the main contract of Shanghai tin rose by 86%.

 

On December 29, the tin commodity index was 151.70, down 0.06 points from yesterday, down 0.24% from the highest point 152.06 in the cycle (2021-10-21), and up 253.94% from the lowest point 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

 

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

 

Looking at the monthly K-bar chart of the tin market in 2021, most of the tin ingot Market rose in 2021. Except March and October, the other 10 months maintained an upward trend, of which the largest increase occurred in January, with a monthly increase of 13.78%; The biggest decline was in March, with a monthly decline of 5.56%.

 

Tight supply at mine end

 

The tin market will go up unilaterally in 2021, and the logic of maintaining the price rise throughout the year is that the supply side is tight. In terms of mine end supply, more than 90% of China’s tin mines depend on Myanmar’s imports. In 2020, affected by the reduction of local tin mines in Myanmar, China’s import data decreased significantly compared with previous years. In December last year, China imported about 16000 tons of tin concentrate, a month on month decrease of 7.82% and a year-on-year decrease of 19.12%, but December is the month with more tin concentrate imports in 2020. In 2020, China exported 158000 tons of tin concentrate, a year-on-year decrease of 11.27%. The data of 21 years is also not optimistic. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, China imported 11831 tons of tin ore sand and concentrate in November 2021, a month on month decrease of 40.35% and a year-on-year decrease of 32.53%; From January to November, China imported 170975 tons of tin ore sand and concentrate, with a year-on-year increase of 20.42%, of which the import from Myanmar accounted for 80.7% of the total import.

 

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The downstream demand is good and the acceptance is high

 

At present, the main application field of tin in China is the electronic industry. In the consumption structure of refined tin metal, solder accounts for about 44% and tin plate accounts for about 16%. Therefore, the development of the electronic industry, including the development of new energy industry, has a great impact on tin. In 2021, with the recovery of the global economy, the demand for 3C products, automobiles and new energy vehicles at the downstream terminals is relatively strong, and the downstream demand is good, which once again benefits the tin market and promotes the further strengthening of tin consumption. The overall application of tin in downstream commodities accounts for a relatively low proportion and uses less. Therefore, even if the price of tin rises all the way, it has little impact on the profits of downstream enterprises. Therefore, the downstream has a strong acceptance of high prices, which is also a factor contributing to the rise of tin prices in the past 21 years.

 

Looking at the historical price trend comparison chart of Tin over the years, we can intuitively find that the word “record high” has appeared frequently for tin prices in the past 21 years.

 

In the first quarter, the tin price rose and then fell. At the beginning of the year, the supply of imported ore in Myanmar continued to be tight, the domestic production was limited during the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic supply continued to be tight, and the tin price rose all the way. Later, with the gradual recovery of domestic production and transportation, the downstream demand was weak, the resistance to high price tin ingots was strong, the purchase intention was low, the domestic inventory accumulated, and the tin price began to fall.

 

Second and third quarter: Tin prices rose steadily. The mine side supply continued to be tight, the domestic tin mine output was difficult to increase, the global tin inventory continued to be low and other favorable factors boosted the tin price all the way up. Moreover, foreign demand is good, domestic inventory is transferred abroad, and domestic inventory continues to decline. During the same period, Nanfang mining will suspend the production of tin concentrate for 60% min, and some smelting enterprises will stop production, which will boost the tin market again, and the price will rise steadily.

 

Fourth quarter: in October, the downstream demand side was gradually weakened by the power restriction policy, and the peak production of solder and other industries had a limited impact on the overall demand for tin. On the whole, the smelter continues to be affected by double control of energy consumption, power restriction policy and shortage of raw materials. The output of refined tin is still low and the overall supply is still tight. Import: Myanmar’s import is still blocked, Mengbo port is still closed, the subsequent tin import is expected to decline, and the tight supply at the mine end will continue. Overall, the tin market is mixed with bad and good, but the supply is still low. Therefore, the tin price rises again after a slight fall.

 

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In the future, the tin price has been at an absolute high in history. The Spring Festival holiday is coming soon. It is expected that the supply and demand will weaken before and after the Spring Festival, and the inventory has shown some performance. The current absolute high price of tin has made the downstream used to purchasing on demand in 21 years. Globally, the terminal demand for tin is mainly concentrated in countries and regions with more developed semiconductors such as Europe, America, Japan and South Korea. In the past 22 years, with the intensification of economic recovery, the demand for tin in the electronic semiconductor industry is expected to be better. China’s consumption in the field of electronic products has also maintained a rapid growth. On the demand side, tin has many positive factors. Overall, tin will remain in a tight supply situation in 2022, and tin prices are expected to remain high.

 

Relevant data:

 

Global semiconductor sales hit a record high from January to November 2021: the semiconductor industry association (SIA) announced on January 3, 2022 that the global semiconductor sales in November 2021 was US $49.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.5% and a month on month increase of 1.5%. SIA represents 98% of U.S. semiconductor companies and nearly two-thirds of non-U.S. chip manufacturers.

 

The latest report data released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) in December showed that the global tin market had a surplus of 2100 tons from January to October 2021. From January to October 2021, the output of refined tin increased by 16000 tons compared with the same period last year, and the apparent demand increased by 1.7% to 321200 tons compared with the same period last year. In October 2021, the global refined tin output was 30100 tons and the consumption was 29900 tons.

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In 2021, the BDO market price was in a relatively high position, and the price trend went out of the most “distinctive” pace in the past five years. The annual market rose and fell sharply, and then rebounded strongly. Until the end of the year, the BDO price was mainly high and volatile. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic BDO production price was 12800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and rose to 30830 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with an annual price increase of 140.86%. The lowest price was 12800 yuan / ton on January 1 at the beginning of the year, and the highest price was 31500 yuan / ton in the middle and late of the first quarter on March 5, with a maximum amplitude of 146.09%. In a short period of time, the price rose rapidly, with a huge increase. Insiders lamented that BDO stepped out of the “six relatives” at the beginning of the year.

 

Trend chart of domestic BDO market in 2021:

 

Comparison chart of BDO price trend from 2017 to 2021:

 

Monthly K column chart of 1,4 butanediol (BDO) domestic production price:

 

BDO’s annual price quotation is divided into four stages: rapid rise stage in the first quarter, ladder decline stage in the second quarter, slow rebound stage in the third quarter, and high consolidation stage from the fourth quarter to the end of the year.

 

In the first stage, according to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic BDO manufacturers increased from 12800 yuan / ton on January 1 to 30700 yuan / ton on March 31, an increase of 139.84%.

 

Trend chart of domestic BDO market in the first quarter of 2021:

 

The domestic BDO market bottomed out and rebounded in the second half of 2020, and the rise continued until late November. After that, the market entered a high Stalemate Stage until mid January 2021. Supported by various favorable factors, such as reduced supply, limited transportation, bullish replenishment in the downstream, hot industry dark horse PBAT market, sharp increase in demand and so on, the state of the domestic BDO market in more than 20 days is “rising”.

 

Since the second half of 2020, PTMEG spandex industrial chain has been the most prominent downstream industry of BDO. The start of terminal weaving is high, the digestion of spandex is stable, and then the consumption of PTMEG is increased. As the largest downstream industry of BDO, PTMEG’s high-level operation also increases the consumption of raw materials. Other downstream industries are also developing healthily, with increased demand. Especially in the recent Spring Festival holiday, the State encourages “local Spring Festival”, and many large downstream factories “don’t stop work during holidays”. Therefore, many middle and downstream customers enter the market to make up their positions. At the same time, the downstream industry dark horse – PBAT industry, driven by the National Plastic restriction policy, the demand surged, thus increasing the digestion capacity of raw materials.

 

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In the second stage, according to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of domestic BDO manufacturers fell from 29825 yuan / ton on April 1 to 17485 yuan / ton on June 30, a decrease of 41.37%.

 

Trend chart of domestic BDO market in the second quarter of 2021:

 

In early April, the factory started stably and the supply was abundant; However, the terminal follow-up was weak, the high price raw materials squeezed the downstream profit space, the market was cautious to make up positions, the auction price continued to decline, and there was a strong bearish mood on the floor. The supplier’s shipping mentality and profit negotiation. By may, the supply and demand of raw materials were bad, and the BDO market was “unsustainable” in May. The delivery price of calcium carbide in Northwest China decreased significantly by 575 yuan / ton compared with April; Methanol in Northwest China decreased by 212.5 yuan / ton compared with April, and the cost of BDO raw materials decreased. In addition, although the unit was shut down for maintenance or catalyst replacement within the month, there was no obvious benefit at the supply end due to the digestion of early-stage inventory; The terminal demand is weak, the downstream market is cautious, and the BDO spot market falls again and again. In June, the domestic BDO market was affected by the change of purchase and marketing mentality of the industry. The decline continued in the middle of the first half of the year, turned sharply to the bottom in the second half of the year, rebounded and continued to rise. In the first and middle of May, in addition to the short shutdown of Xinjiang Meike phase II to replace the catalyst, many maintenance units were restarted and stabilized in May, and the market supply was abundant. Traders’ fear of falling mentality increased and made a narrow margin to speed up the pace of shipment.

 

In the third stage, according to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of domestic BDO manufacturers increased from 17325 yuan / ton on July 1 to 30125 yuan / ton on September 30, an increase of 73.88%.

 

Trend chart of domestic BDO market in the third quarter of 2021:

 

At the beginning of the third quarter, some factories released the maintenance news from July to August, and mainly delivered contract orders and spot controlled supply. The main traders had limited supply and strong willingness to be reluctant to sell. They mainly delivered early orders and offered few new orders. Some bulls continued to speculate, the middle and lower reaches continued to chase up and cover positions, and the focus of the negotiation was explored. In August, BDO market rose sharply and entered consolidation. Meike phase II has not been restarted. Lanshantun River and Xinye have been shut down for maintenance, and Shaanxi chemical has replaced the catalyst. In addition, due to the impact of rainstorm and epidemic situation, the transportation in some areas is slow, the supply of goods is tightened again, and the domestic BDO market continues to rise. After more than a month of rapid rise, BDO downstream has obvious resistance to high prices, and the positive transmission is not smooth. Traders have entered the wait-and-see stage, so the BDO market has entered a high consolidation period. With the restart of the unit, the positive support of the market weakened, and the domestic BDO market turned downward.

 

First fell and then rose, and the BDO market “rose again” in September. At the end of August and the beginning of September, the whole BDO domestic market was mainly on the sidelines at the beginning of the new moon. The overall supply and marketing is weak, and it seems that the market situation of BDO’s current round of “singing all the way” has come to an end. As BDO units such as great wall energy, Shaanxi black cat, Yanchang Petroleum, Cathay Xinhua and Shaanxi chemical all stop for maintenance at different times, the overall operating rate decreases, the supply of goods in the market is tight, the favorable support on the supply side appears, and the operator’s trading mentality is cautious. BDO market “recovery is in sight”. Then, the market is mainly affected by the continuation of multi device maintenance status, the overall supply of the market is tight, the factory mainly delivers contract orders, the spot volume is limited, the operator’s trading mentality is stable and preferred, and the domestic BDO market continues to rise.

 

In the fourth stage, according to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of domestic BDO manufacturers rose from 30125 yuan / ton on October 1 to 30830 yuan / ton on December 31, an increase of 2.34%, and the overall market fluctuated at a high level.

 

Trend chart of domestic BDO market in the fourth quarter of 2021:

 

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At the beginning of the fourth quarter, the supply continued to shrink. Although some enterprise devices were started and the maintenance was completed, some enterprise devices were still under maintenance. The overall operating rate declined, the supply decreased, and the BDO market ushered in a short rise. In October, the domestic BDO market continued the rising trend in September, the price continued to rise and the rise slowed down, which was in line with the traditional “golden nine silver ten” market performance of chemicals. The short-term BDO market supply is still tight due to multiple factors: some units are due for maintenance, but many new discontinued units are added; Delayed delivery of orders in some areas due to poor transportation; At present, the operating rate of normal enterprises is low, the production capacity is general, the enterprise inventory is relatively low, and the speculation mentality of traders makes the BDO market rise again.

 

In November, the domestic BDO market fell into a “dilemma”, and the overall price fluctuated at a high level. Manufacturers delivered more contract orders, the spot volume was limited, and the high offer actively supported the market. Part of the downstream industries give up profits for promotion, the transmission of high cost pressure is blocked, the ability to accept high prices is weak, and the focus of negotiation continues to rise. Therefore, the BDO market only rose slightly. The downstream has a mentality of resistance to high priced raw materials, and the focus is to explore obstacles, so the market is in a dilemma.

 

Near the end of the year. Most of the main manufacturers maintain a price guarding mentality and are cautious about going low, while the middle and lower reaches lack confidence in the future market, the spot follow-up is light, some manufacturers have a strong shipping mentality, and the focus of real orders moves down. Each device operates stably and the overall market supply is abundant. However, the start-up of downstream enterprises such as PTMEG and PBT declined slightly, and other downstream enterprises also maintained the follow-up of just needed orders. The actual demand decreased, and most of them were resistant to high prices. They mainly maintained contract procurement, and their enthusiasm for spot follow-up was not strong. “Breaking the bottleneck”, BDO market opened a downward channel.

 

Comparison chart of price trend of methanol-1,4 butanediol (BDO):

 

Comparison chart of price trend of calcium carbide-1,4-butanediol (BDO):

 
Rise and fall chart of BDO industrial chain in 2021:

 

At the beginning of 2022, the domestic BDO market is “upside down”. The overall market supply is loose. The load of PTMEG and PBT in the main downstream decreased and the digestibility decreased; Other downstream are also in conflict with high prices, and the intention to prepare goods before the festival is not strong. The price market “fell down the altar”. In 2021, the market trend of BDO has been “Crazy”, the high level has lasted for a long time, and the downstream has long had a mentality of resistance. Although the main production enterprises have placed their hopes on reducing supply by adjusting the unit operating rate and increasing maintenance, the downstream conflict caused by long-term high price makes the current social inventory still in a high position. With the downstream industries entering the holidays one after another, the demand side is even more difficult. The bad start seems to indicate that the BDO market is also time to “return to normal”.

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The rise of cobalt price slowed down in January

 

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According to the data monitoring of business society, the domestic cobalt price stabilized after a slight rise in January, and the cobalt market was blocked in entering the 5 era. As of January 18, the average cobalt price was 499100 yuan / ton, up 1.36% from the average cobalt price of 492400 yuan / ton on January 1. It can be seen from the weekly histogram of cobalt price rise and fall of business society that the cobalt price rose by 1.14% in the first week of January and only 0.02% in the second week. The rise of cobalt price slowed down, the high falling risk of cobalt price was high, and the breaking of cobalt price was blocked.

 

The international cobalt price fell slightly

 

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As can be seen from the trend chart of LME cobalt price, the LME cobalt price fell slightly in January, the high price of electrolytic cobalt fell, and the rising power of domestic cobalt Market weakened.

 

Market Overview

 

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at the business society, believes that the subsidy for new energy vehicles has declined, the sales volume of new energy vehicles may decline, the sales of mobile phones have increased continuously, and there is a tendency to take off. The demand growth of cobalt market slows down. The Spring Festival is approaching, downstream customers are facing holiday shutdown, and the demand growth of cobalt market is limited in January; On the supply side, the supply of cobalt raw materials returned to normal, and the supply of cobalt market increased. Overall, the supply of cobalt recovered, the demand was high but the growth was limited, the pressure of cobalt price breaking 5 was great, and the high shock of cobalt price before the festival is expected to stabilize.

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1、 Price data

 

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners continued to rise this week. On January 16, the average price in Shandong market was 3261.25 yuan / ton, up 1.56% from 3211.25 yuan / ton on January 10.

 

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On January 16, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 253.65, the same as yesterday, down 3.26% from the highest point 262.19 in the cycle (2021-09-29), and up 279.20% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

This week, the refinery delivered well and the transaction was positive. The inventory of some refineries was low and the price continued to rise.

 

Upstream: international crude oil prices rose this week. Although the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is still severe, the symptoms seem to be milder than the previous variants, and the oil price trend rose; In addition, the production increase plan of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) was implemented, the relatively conservative policy was in line with market expectations, and the oil price was supported. Some geopolitical factors such as the interruption of supply in Libya, the unrest in Kazakhstan and some political factors affect the supply expectation, and the international oil price has received some support.

 

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Downstream: the price of calcined coke rose this week; The market price of metal silicon decreased slightly; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fell. As of January 16, the price was 21180.00 yuan / ton.

 

According to the petroleum coke analysts of business society, the recent shipments of local refining manufacturers are good, the prices rise, and the increase is tightened. The downstream terminal purchases actively before the festival, and the inventory in the local refining market is low. At present, the price of local refining petroleum coke is high. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke may remain stable in the near future.

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Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

 

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According to the monitoring of business society, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite remained stable this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 2533.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2433.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week.

 

The overall market performance of sodium pyrosulfite this week is general. The market price range of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite is 2100-2600 yuan / ton, and most prices are concentrated near 2200 yuan / ton. Enterprises mainly complete the orders of old customers, and the increase of new orders is limited. The market transaction atmosphere is general, mainly fast in and fast out, which mainly needs support. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not within their scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact each manufacturer for details).

 

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From the beginning of January to today, the price of domestic soda ash continued to decline, with an overall decline of 17.13%, and the price of sulfur rebounded slightly, with an overall increase of 3.45%. In general, the cost of sodium pyrosulfite continued to decline as a whole, which will suppress the market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

 

Future forecast

 

Business analysts believe that, supported by the tight transportation capacity at the end of the year, the bottom of the market price of sodium pyrosulfite has been stable in the near future, the raw material cost remains weak, and the overall weak market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future is difficult to change.

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