1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly this month, and the average price of domestic mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol fell from 17733.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 17533.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 200 yuan / ton, or 1.13%. On April 29, the commodity index of neopentyl glycol was 84.50, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.44% from the highest point of 103.61 in the cycle (2021-09-22), and up 31.50% from the lowest point of 64.26 on January 3, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now).

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol fell slightly this month: the distribution price of Shanghai Qihua Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the end of the month was 17300 yuan / ton, which was 200 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month; The selling price of Jinan aochen Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the end of the month was 17800 yuan / ton, which increased by 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; The selling price of Shandong Zhiying Jihua neopentyl glycol at the end of the month was 17500 yuan / ton, which was 500 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price has twists and turns this month. The quotation first fell from 13566.67 yuan / ton on April 1 to 13066.67 yuan / ton on April 6, down 3.69%, then rose to 14600.00 yuan / ton on April 11, up 11.73%, and finally fell to 14166.67 yuan / ton on April 30, down 2.97%. Overall, the isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly this month, up 4.42% for the whole month. There is a downward trend at the end of the month. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, which had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol due to the influence of supply and demand.

3、 Future forecast

The overall trend of neopentyl glycol market in the middle and early days of may may may decline slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market has a downward trend at the end of the month, the cost support is weakened, the downstream coating market is general, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak. Analysts of neopentyl glycol of business society believe that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may decline slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price data

According to the data of business agency, as of April 28, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 6310.00 yuan / ton, down 1.25% from 6390.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

On April 28, the fuel oil commodity index was 127.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 2.47% from the highest point of 131.04 in the cycle (2022-03-24), and up 177.34% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of domestic fuel oil 180CST fell this month, and the high price of domestic marine oil raw materials supported the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business agency, as of April 28, the self raised low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 6300 yuan / ton of 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area were 6200 yuan / ton; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 6400 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6500 yuan / ton.

The international crude oil shock in April was mainly due to the lower than expected increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories. The market is still dominated by concerns about tight global oil supply in the future. The market is intertwined with long and short, the global economic recovery slows down, the Federal Reserve’s expectation of raising interest rates rises, and the domestic epidemic suppresses demand, and oil prices are under pressure. On the other hand, the EU is considering imposing an oil ban on Russia, tightening supply expectations, limiting the decline in oil prices, and the recent crude oil price range has fluctuated.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, which supported fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of April 27, Singapore’s fuel inventory decreased by 3.959 million barrels to a seven month low of 19.144 million barrels. As of the week of April 27, Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory increased by 268000 barrels to 13.266 million barrels, the highest since March 30. As of the week of April 27, Singapore’s medium distillate stocks fell 1.98 million barrels to a three week low of 7.043 million barrels.

3、 Future forecast

The international crude oil price fluctuates, and the cost of ship fuel market is high. At present, the ship fuel market is mainly stable temporarily. Affected by the epidemic, the transportation of ship fuel market is blocked, the market wait-and-see mood is strong, the market just needs to be dominated, and the overall transaction is light. At present, the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST is about 6200-6300 yuan / ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120cst is about 6300-6400 yuan / ton. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market may be dominated by consolidation in the near future.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market rose slightly on April 27, with the average market price of 6240 yuan / ton, up 0.70% from the previous day and 33.88% year-on-year. PTA futures 2209 closed 6124, up 124, or 2.07%.

The 1.2 million ton PTA unit of Zhongtai Petrochemical began to heat up on April 24 and has not been discharged yet. The 1.2 million ton unit of hailun Petrochemical stopped on April 26, and the restart time is to be determined. The 1 million ton unit of chuanneng chemical stopped on April 13 and is planned to restart around the middle of May. At present, the start-up of the industry has increased to around 73%.

The price of international crude oil futures rose significantly. On April 26, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $101.70/barrel, up US $3.16 or 3.21%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $104.99/barrel, up US $2.67 or 2.61%. Investors weighed the impact of the epidemic situation and anti epidemic blockade measures in some Asian countries and regions on the prospects of economic growth and energy demand, as well as the expectation of tightening energy supply caused by the Russian Ukrainian war, and the oil price rebounded.

The downstream demand was weak, and the product inventory accumulation and loss of polyester factory increased. According to statistics, as of April 22, the inventory of POY, FDY, DTY and staple fiber were 32.3 days, 30.8 days, 36.4 days and 12.8 days respectively, all at a high level in recent years. At the same time, the transportation of raw materials in some factories is difficult, and the polyester load is gradually reduced, from 87% in early April to around 77%.

Business analysts believe that the rebound in crude oil prices pushed up PTA, but the overall operating load of polyester in the downstream was low. Before May Day, the actual demand recovered slowly, and the market continued to follow the cost fluctuation in the short term and rose cautiously.

In April, the domestic propane market fluctuated frequently as a whole, and the price center of Shandong market shifted downward, showing an “m” shape trend as a whole. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6698.25 yuan / ton on April 1 and 6613.25 yuan / ton on April 26. The decline range in the month was 1.27%, up 44.77% compared with the same period last year.

As of April 26, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region, April 22nd

South China, 6350-6450 yuan / ton

North China, 6400-6700 yuan / ton

Shandong Province, 6450-6650 yuan / ton

Northeast China, 6100-6600 yuan / ton

In April, the overall fluctuation range of domestic propane market was limited, and the price fluctuated in a narrow range. The trend of Shandong propane Market showed an “m” shape in the month. At the beginning of April, the CP price rise was introduced in April and affected by the Qingming holiday. The demand for inventory and replenishment before and after the downstream Festival helped the rise of propane market price. However, with the downstream delisting after the festival, the international crude oil went down and the market mentality was bad. The manufacturer’s shipment was blocked and the profit delivery was mainly made. In the middle of the month, driven by the rebound of international crude oil, the propane Market followed the rise. By the end of the month, the market was still restrained by insufficient terminal demand, the market trading atmosphere was limited, and the market price of propane in Shandong fell back to weakness.

Saudi Aramco announced in April 2022 that both propylene and butane increased. Propane was 940 USD / T, up 45 USD / T from the previous month; Butane is 960 US dollars / ton, up 40 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

Near the end of the month, the domestic propane markets in the South and North are mainly horizontal consolidation, and the price fluctuation is small. The decline of international crude oil prices is bad for the market mentality, but the May Day holiday is coming, the market trading atmosphere is mild, and the price before the festival is relatively strong. It is expected that the price of propane market will continue to consolidate in the short term.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners rebounded after falling this week. On April 24, the average price of Shandong market was 5198.75 yuan / ton, down 0.05% from 5201.25 yuan / ton on April 18.

On April 24, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 404.35, up 0.58 points from yesterday, down 0.29% from the highest point 405.52 in the cycle (2022-04-17), and up 504.50% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of petroleum coke in refineries rebounded after falling this week, and the trading improved in the second half of the week. Refinery shipments were positive, downstream carbon enterprises purchased before the festival, and the local coking price was partially corrected.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuates, the market is intertwined, the global economic recovery slows down, the Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to heat up, and the domestic epidemic depresses demand, and the oil price is under pressure. On the other hand, the EU is considering imposing an oil ban on Russia, tightening supply expectations, limiting the decline in oil prices, and the recent crude oil price range has fluctuated.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke rose this week; The market price of metallic silicon has been lowered; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fluctuated. As of April 24, the price was 21810.00 yuan / ton.

Petroleum coke analysts of business agency believe that: the high price of international crude oil fluctuates, and the price cost of petroleum coke is supported by local refining; Refinery shipments were positive, downstream carbon enterprises purchased before the festival, and the local coking price was partially corrected. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke may rise slightly in the near future.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 9180.00 yuan / ton on April 17 and 9220.00 yuan / ton on April 24. The increase rate in the week was 0.44%, up 4.42% compared with March 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 11850.00 yuan / ton on April 17 and 11850.00 yuan / ton on April 24. The price remained stable during the week, up 2.01% from March 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 9883.33 yuan / ton on April 17 and 9883.33 yuan / ton on April 24. The price remained stable during the week, up 7.62% from March 1.

This week, the price of polyethylene in the domestic spot market was strong and the overall fluctuation range was small. The three major varieties in East China all rose steadily, among which the LLDPE market was stable and upward, and the LDPE and HDPE markets were sideways. This week, the international crude oil price fluctuated and rose, which brought some positive support to the market in terms of cost. In addition, currently in the maintenance season, there is little pressure on market supply. However, there is no significant change in terminal demand, the downstream maintains replenishment on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is still limited. The merchant’s mentality is general, and the price has not been significantly adjusted for the time being.

This week, Liansu futures market fluctuated downward, bringing Limited benefits to the spot market. On April 22, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2209 was 8955, the highest price was 8968, the lowest price was 8854, the closing price was 8872, the former settlement price was 8954, the settlement price was 8905, down 82, or 0.92%, the trading volume was 321826, the position was 260546, and the daily position was increased by 10838. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the support brought by the cost to the market is relatively obvious. In the later stage, there is still a reduction expectation in the market supply of polyethylene market, and the pressure on the market supply is small, but the continued weak demand has significantly restrained the market. It is expected that the price of PE spot market will continue to be adjusted in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of April 21, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 11666.67 yuan / ton, up 0.86% from Monday, down 3.05% from March 21, and up 2.64% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

The propylene oxide market rose this week. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has been adjusted and operated, the price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the cost pressure is obvious, which supports the price support mentality of manufacturers. The supply side is mainly stable, the demand side is generally in general, and the focus of market negotiation has increased slightly. On the 21st, the mainstream price of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 11100-11300 yuan / ton.

Upstream propylene, on the 20th, the propylene market was recently consolidated and operated. The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 8450-8550 yuan / ton. The overall upward trend of crude oil on the cost side has played a certain supporting role for propylene, but the cost pressure of downstream polypropylene has not decreased, the demand is flat, and the commencement is limited. At the same time, other downstream products of propylene are in general, and the propylene market is deadlocked under the drag of demand.

For downstream propylene glycol, on April 20, the reference price of propylene glycol was 11600.00, a decrease of 17.92% compared with April 1 (14133.33).

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that at present, the cost support is strong, and the supply and demand support is slightly weak to restrain the increase. However, with the replenishment demand in the downstream before May Day, it is expected that the propylene oxide market may be sorted out in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the changes of raw material prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of baking soda is stable and dynamic. At present, the average market price of baking soda is 2526.67 yuan / ton. On April 19, the commodity index of baking soda was 167.70, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.89% from the highest point 235.84 in the cycle (2021-11-10), and up 89.99% from the lowest point 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda is stable and dynamic, and the demand in the downstream market is general in the near future. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan is about 2500-2700 yuan / ton. Raw materials: at present, the average market price of soda ash is 2612.5 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a year-on-year increase of 49.12%. Soda ash price consolidation and operation, and appropriate purchase in the downstream. The trading atmosphere of the market is general. Affected by public health events and transportation, it is comprehensively expected that soda ash will be stable and dynamic.

Demand: in the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food is general. The price of raw materials and soda ash has been adjusted and operated, and the downstream glass has warmed up a little recently. The market trading atmosphere is mild, the enterprise shipment is acceptable, and the soda ash finishing and operation market is comprehensively expected. In the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food is generally in the near future. Generally speaking, the price of baking soda may maintain the consolidation operation in the short term, depending on the demand of the downstream market.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of April 19, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol is 11766 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on April 15, 2022 (propylene glycol ex factory reference price of 12533 yuan / ton), the average price is reduced by 767 yuan / ton, down 6.12%. Compared with the price on April 1, 2022 (propylene glycol ex factory reference price of 14133 yuan / ton), the average price is reduced by 2367 yuan / ton, down 16.75%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that in April, under the influence of public health events, logistics and transportation in some parts of China were not smooth, the downstream demand for propylene glycol recovered slowly, and the market price of propylene glycol went down all the way. This week, the follow-up of downstream demand was still limited, and the new orders were general. On the 18th and 19th consecutive days, propylene glycol factories adjusted the ex factory price of propylene glycol again, with a reduction range of 500-1000 yuan / ton, Although the propylene glycol units in some regions have shutdown maintenance plans and the propylene glycol inventory has decreased moderately, the market continues to be weak, and the early inventory has accumulated. Therefore, the support performance of the supply side is general. The propylene glycol market is greatly restricted by the demand side, and the overall supply and demand conduction block of the market appears. As of April 19, the ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol is around 11500-12000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 6.12% in the two days of the week. At present, the atmosphere of propylene glycol on-site trading is light, and the downstream goods are prepared carefully, focusing on actual order negotiation.

On the upstream propylene oxide side, the recent (4.11-4.18) propylene oxide market fell. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has been consolidated and operated, with certain support on the cost side. The supply side devices are mainly stable, the demand side is cold, and the reduction follow-up is mainly. The market trading atmosphere is weak. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 11566.67 yuan / ton as of April 18, down 3.88% compared with the price on April 1 (propylene oxide price reference 12033.33 yuan / ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, the downstream demand of propylene glycol recovers slowly. The propylene glycol data division of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is mainly sorted and operated in a narrow range. In the long term, the downstream demand will be improved after the logistics and transportation are restored one after another. With the support of demand, the propylene glycol market can mostly recover and operate in the low valley. The specific trend also needs to pay more attention to the basic changes of supply and demand and the follow-up of new orders.

1、 Price data

As of April 17, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8065.75 yuan / ton, down 2.98% from 8313.25 yuan / ton on April 11. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8000 yuan / ton.

As of April 17, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 7882.50 yuan / ton, down 2.75% from 8105.00 yuan / ton on April 11. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 7900 yuan / ton.

On April 17, the naphtha commodity index was 99.55, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.16% from the highest point of 121.64 in the cycle (2022-03-10), and up 135.68% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha continued to fall this week. At present, the demand for olefins and aromatics in naphtha terminals is weak, affected by public health events in many places in China, transportation is limited, refinery shipments are blocked, and the market wait-and-see mood is strong.

Upstream: international crude oil prices rose, and it was reported that the EU might draft a bill banning the import of Russian oil. The expectation of oil product shortage caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine surfaced again, and the oil price was strongly supported. The escalating geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine has led to the rise of oil prices. Under the background of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Russia, as the world’s second largest oil exporter, has been expected to be interrupted due to Western sanctions, and the price trend of crude oil market has risen.

The price of toluene fell by 7350 yuan on March 15 of last week, compared with 7150 yuan on March 15 of this week. Mixed xylene fell broadly this week. The price was 7420 yuan / ton on April 8 and 7130 yuan / ton on April 15, down 3.91% from last week. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene this week was temporarily stable, and the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton by the end of the weekend.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the rise of international crude oil prices supports the naphtha market. At present, the naphtha market has strong wait-and-see mood, weak terminal demand, the impact of public health events in many domestic places, limited transportation, and refineries reduce prices and ship goods. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may be dominated by consolidation.