According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate has been rising this week. On January 13, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 313600 yuan / ton, which was 8.51% higher than that in early Zhou (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 289000 yuan / ton on January 9). On January 13, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 336000 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.53% compared with that in early Zhou (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 304000 yuan / ton on January 9). As of January 13, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market is about 270000 ~ 330000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market is about 320000 ~ 366000 yuan / ton.

By observing the market changes, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise sharply this week, the market supply is still low, and the quotations of some traders for industrial carbon and electric carbon are increasing. As the Spring Festival approaches, the lithium salt plant enters the maintenance period, resulting in the continuous reduction of lithium salt output. However, under the background of strong downstream stock demand, lithium salt prices continue to rise. At present, the goods preparation in the downstream market in February and March is not optimistic, and the market order inquiry and procurement demand will continue. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream manufacturers may reduce production due to the shortage of lithium carbonate raw materials.

The downstream lithium hydroxide Market is strong and upward. Since the beginning of the year, the lithium hydroxide inventory has continued to fall, and the lithium hydroxide has a strong follow-up mood. The cost support is strong, the supply side is relatively stable, the demand side is active, and the market is bullish.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream increased, the overall market negotiation focus was high, the inventory was low, the downstream just needed to purchase, and the transaction atmosphere was acceptable. Driven by raw materials, the manufacturing cost of lithium iron phosphate has increased significantly. On the demand side and terminal, battery enterprises prepare goods at the end of the year. The substitution of lithium iron phosphate for lithium ternary manganate in small power is still continuing, and the power demand is up.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business society, at present, the output of lithium carbonate has declined for nine consecutive weeks, the gap between supply and demand is still widening, and the production scheduling demand for cathode materials remains high. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will rise in the short term under the condition that the upstream shipment situation is still tight and the downstream stock mood remains unchanged.

According to the monitoring data of business society, the average market price of silicone DMC in mainstream areas at the beginning of the year was 21833 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of silicone DMC at the end of the year was 25800 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 18.17% in the whole year. The annual maximum amplitude reached 191.05%.

It can be seen from the k-column trend chart of silicone DMC monitored by the business society that the overall domestic silicone DMC market rose and fell in 2021. In the first half of 2021, January was the month with the largest decline in the whole year, and the organosilicon DMC decreased by 34.5% in that month. In the second half of 2021, organosilicon DMC experienced an increase in the first four months and a decline in the last two months. September was the month with the largest increase in 2021. In that month, organosilicon DMC increased by 68.8%. The annual price of organosilicon DMC reached a high point. On October 8, the average ex factory price of organosilicon DMC broke the 60000 mark. With reference to 63866 yuan / ton, the price reached a record high in recent ten years, It also created the annual maximum amplitude of 191%.

In the first quarter, affected by the sharp decline of silicone DMC at the end of 2020, weak market demand and limited transmission, silicone DMC has continued to be weak and entered 2021. In January, the domestic silicone DMC market fluctuated slightly. The ex factory price of silicone DMC in that month was around 21000-21500 yuan / ton, and the overall price range was mainly adjusted. In February, the goods preparation was opened before the Spring Festival, the downstream demand for silicone DMC increased, the market price rose steadily, the atmosphere after the festival continued to warm up, and the upstream and downstream transmission was smooth, with an increase of 12.16% in February. In March, the export of downstream silica gel and other products continued to support the strong rise of silicone DMC market. In March, the price of silicone dmc8 was adjusted, and the high-end offer exceeded 30000 yuan / ton, with an increase of 23.52% in March and an overall increase of 33.89% in the first quarter.

In the second quarter, the organosilicon DMC market first fell and then rose. In April and may, after the organosilicon DMC market broke through the 30000 mark, the downstream wait-and-see increased, and the on-site supply and demand game appeared. The organosilicon DMC market fell and the effective support was insufficient, and the factory quotation gradually decreased. At the end of May, the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC fell to 26000-27000 yuan / ton, with a cumulative decline of 8.78% for two consecutive months. In June, supported by the high operation of raw metal silicon and the increase of downstream demand, the market price of silicone DMC opened the upward road again, and the on-site supply was tight. At the end of June, the average ex factory price of silicone DMC returned to the 30000 era, with an increase of 14.62% in June and an overall increase of 4.56% in the second quarter.

In the third quarter, organosilicon DMC ushered in a historic moment. The high price exceeded 63000 yuan / ton, with a quarterly increase of 107%

In the third quarter, in July, the performance of the domestic silicone DMC market was “calm”, and the overall market was stable. Only a few manufacturers increased the ex factory price of silicone DMC slightly, and the silicone DMC increased by 0.33% in July. In August, the silicone DMC market continued to operate steadily in the first ten days. In the middle and late ten days, driven by the cost given by the sharp rise in the raw material market, the silicone DMC price also began to rise broadly. At the end of August, the ex factory high price of silicone DMC exceeded 37500 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 19.02%. In September, when the golden age came, the downstream demand performed well, and the dual control policy on energy consumption was introduced, which led to a sharp rise in the silicone DMC market. There was a shortage of spot goods on the site, and it was difficult to find a single order. At the end of September, the high price of silicone DMC exceeded 63000 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 66% in September and 107% in the second quarter, up 250.37% year-on-year in September 2020.

Negative pressure on silicone DMC to return to the 25000 Era

In the fourth quarter, in October, when the national day came back, the domestic silicone DMC market went down at a high level, the downstream start-up decreased negative, and the demand weakened. Large factories in Shandong continuously significantly reduced the ex factory price of silicone DMC. There was a strong bearish mood on the floor, and the raw material support was gradually loosened. At the end of October, the average price of silicone DMC fell to 46666 yuan / ton, a decrease of 26.28% in the month. In November, the market of raw metal silicon continued to be weak, the cost support of silicone DMC was greatly loosened, the downstream continued to be bearish towards silicone DMC, the demand was cautious, the overall performance of the venue was weak in both supply and demand, and the decline of silicone DMC intensified. In November, the silicone DMC market fell back to around 30000 / T, with a monthly decline of 34%. In December, at the beginning of the month, the silicone DMC market continued to fall deeply, and the cost and demand support continued to loosen. On December 19, the average price of silicone DMC fell to 23900 yuan / ton. The market entered the lowest market in the whole year, and the low price increased the enthusiasm of downstream demand. Silicone DMC ushered in a slight correction. As of December 31, the ex factory price of domestic silicone DMC was 25500-26300 yuan / ton, and the average price was 25800 yuan / ton, It fell 16.23% in December and 59.24% in the fourth quarter.

2021 summary and 2022 market forecast

2021 is an extraordinary year for the domestic silicone DMC market. In this year, the market has experienced a sharp rise and fall. The unprecedented high price will always be recorded in the history of silicone DMC. The negative factors are gradually revealed. In the fourth quarter, the silicone DMC market fell rapidly and sharply. The market basically returned to the level at the beginning of the year at the end of the year. Towards the end of the year, The silicone DMC market has picked up slightly, which also brings warm expectations for the coming 2022. The silicone DMC datagrapher of business society believes that at the beginning of 2022, the domestic silicone DMC market will continue to operate stably, moderately and strongly, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific changes of raw materials, demand and on-site inventory supply.

1、 Price trend of polyester staple fiber in 2021

Pf spot price trend

In 2021, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber showed a double peak M-shape and fluctuated sharply. The first peak appeared at the end of February and early March, and the second peak appeared in mid and late October. The trend of cash and futures is similar to that of ethylene glycol in the whole year. According to the price test of business agency, on December 31, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 7076 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 18.98%. The highest price was 8398 yuan / ton on October 20, and the lowest price was 5948 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year. In the futures market, the main short fiber futures closed at 7070 yuan / ton on December 31, up 10.09% year-on-year. The highest price was 8578 yuan / ton on February 26, and the lowest price was 6400 yuan / ton on the first trading day at the beginning of the year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Pf industry chain price trend

PTA spot price trend

Eg spot price trend

Spot price trend of polyester yarn

In the first quarter, it showed a sharp rise and a slight decline, with a sharp rise in the quarter. After rising unilaterally from January to February, the high in March fell. The staple fiber futures market saw the highest price of 8578 yuan / ton on February 26. During the Spring Festival, the international oil price fluctuated and rose sharply, driving the prices of raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol to rise sharply. The cost rose sharply, the unit was shut down for maintenance, and the downstream goods were prepared after the festival. The polyester staple fiber increased significantly under the negative inventory. In March, after rising at the beginning of the month, the international oil price fluctuated and fell all the way, the high point fell by nearly 13%, and the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol fell sharply. The cost dropped greatly, the trade middlemen sold goods, the downstream pre festival goods were fully prepared until the procurement was insufficient, the production and sales of polyester staple fiber decreased greatly, and the futures and spot goods were greatly callback.

The second quarter showed a narrow shock W-shaped trend, with a slight decline in the quarter. In this quarter, the price of upstream raw materials fluctuated greatly, the downstream weaving and terminal orders decreased under the condition of early order overdraft, the short fiber manufacturers continued to accumulate the warehouse, and the processing fee continued to compress or even lose money. However, as the international oil price fluctuated all the way up in June (almost showing a unilateral upward trend, and the crude oil futures in New York closed up 9.61% for the whole month), PTA, a staple fiber raw material, also rose significantly with the crude oil price. In addition, the continuous increase in the overhaul of staple fiber devices in June led to a decline in production capacity. In addition, the epidemic affected part of the return of orders in Southeast Asia, the production and sales of domestic polyester staple fiber were better than expected, and the staple fiber period Spot prices bottomed out in June and nearly recovered the land lost at the beginning of the quarter. However, the main short fiber raw material ethylene glycol futures closed down slightly in June.

The third quarter showed a large shock n-type trend, with a small rise in the quarter. The shock increased in July, decreased in August and rebounded in September. In July, inertia continued the upward trend of shock in the previous month. In August, the price of polyester staple fiber fluctuated and fell due to the pressure of cost, supply and demand. In August, the international crude oil price fluctuated and fell, and the prices of raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol fell. The downstream yarn weaving market demand is flat, the domestic and export markets have declined, mainly buy as you use, and the transaction is light. In September, affected by cost boost and double control production reduction, the price of polyester staple fiber bottomed out and rebounded. In September, the international crude oil price fluctuated higher, the prices of raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol rebounded, the power and production of main producing provinces were limited due to the dual control of energy consumption, the production and shutdown of polyester staple fiber devices were reduced, the maintenance was increased, and the supply was greatly reduced. However, the inventory of downstream yarn weaving Market and traders was low, so there was a demand for replenishment.

In the fourth quarter, it showed a trend of sharply rising, falling and stabilizing. The shock rose sharply in October, the high level fell in November, and the bottom stabilized and rose slightly in December. In October, driven by the rise of raw materials first and then the decline of raw materials, the price of polyester staple fiber rose sharply and then fell slightly. In October, after the international crude oil price hit a new high in nearly seven years, the spot prices of raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol rebounded. The dual control of energy consumption and power and production restriction in the main producing provinces this month still had a great impact, and the resumption of production of short fiber factories was slow. In addition, affected by domestic coal power control and cracking down on futures speculation, the industrial chain futures market overreacted, and the short fiber futures fell sharply. The collapse of cost and weak demand in November led to a sharp drop of more than 10% in polyester staple fiber, which was almost unilateral. In November, the international crude oil price fell sharply under the pressure of the release of oil reserves by the United States and the spread of the latest mutant strain “Omicron”. At the end of the month, WTI New York crude oil CFD barely closed below 67, with a monthly decline of nearly 20%. The prices of raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol followed the sharp decline. Both the current and future prices fell by more than 10%. The order performance of downstream yarn and weaving Market is still weak, The polyester plant plans to reduce production by 20% in the last ten days. In November, the domestic power rationing policy was basically cancelled, the units overhauled in the early stage were restarted one after another, the start-up picked up, the tight supply and demand situation was improved, and the storage was slowly accumulated. In addition, xinfengming Zhonglei staple fiber device has been produced in the middle of this month. In December, raw materials stabilized and rebounded, and double section goods preparation led to the bottom recovery of staple fiber prices. In December, the crude oil inventory of the United States decreased, the production of some oil producing countries was interrupted, and the crude oil price fluctuated and rose. The prices of raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol followed the rise. The downstream yarn and weaving Market is close to new year’s day and the Spring Festival holiday, there is a demand for goods storage, and the purchase is increased. The power rationing policy has basically ended, the short fiber supply has improved, and the price has increased steadily.

Import and export data of polyester staple fiber in 2021 and new capacity of polyester staple fiber in the next two years

3、 2022 forecast

Business analysts believe that in the short term, the international crude oil price rebounds slowly and the cost side support of polyester staple fiber is strengthened. In some provinces of China, COVID-19 local cases continue to affect the polyester industry chain upstream and downstream start up and production and marketing, nearly Spring Festival, many textile enterprises ahead of time to leave. It is expected that the short-term polyester staple fiber will show a strong shock trend.

Overall:

In terms of supply, the annual staple fiber supply is expected to rise. However, the supply pressure in the first half of the year was small, the short fiber inventory pressure in the first quarter was small, the new short fiber production capacity was gradually released in the second quarter, and the textile industry also entered the traditional peak season. However, in the second half of the year, with the gradual operation of the new unit, the short fiber supply pressure is large.

In terms of demand, there is a lack of obvious positive support, and the expected demand for the whole year may be weak as a whole. It is still unclear whether the tight short fiber supply situation in the whole year can be alleviated.

In terms of cost, the cost focus of staple fiber is expected to move down. In 2022, under the expectation of the improvement of the epidemic situation and the tightening of monetary liquidity, the crude oil price may be under pressure, and the annual oil price may rise and fall. The domestic expected supply increment of PTA and ethylene glycol is greater than the demand increment, the supply exceeds the demand, the cumulative reservoir pressure increases, and the crude oil price support is weak. It is expected that the PTA and ethylene glycol prices will fluctuate weakly throughout the year.

In the whole year, under the expectation of increased supply pressure, weak demand recovery and downward shift of cost focus, it is expected that the short fiber in 2022 may show an upward trend first and then an downward trend. The price may rise both before and after the Spring Festival and national day. The change of raw material price and the release rhythm of new production capacity may dominate the price trend of staple fiber. In addition, the epidemic situation, demand and macro policy also need to be paid close attention.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol rose sharply this week. The average price of domestic mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol rose from 13333.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 16020.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 20.15%.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol increased this week: the distribution price of Shanghai Qihua Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 16500 yuan / ton, which increased by 3000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; The weekend distribution price of Shandong Zhiying Jihua neopentyl glycol is 14560 yuan / ton, which is 1560 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week. Jinan aochen Wanhua neopentyl glycol weekend distribution price is 17000 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation has increased by 3500 yuan / ton

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the isobutyraldehyde market rose sharply this week. The average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market increased from 9733.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 14400.00 yuan / ton this weekend, up 4666.67 yuan / ton, or 47.95%. The market price of upstream raw materials rose sharply, and the cost support was strengthened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of neopentyl glycol in the middle and late January may rise slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market rose sharply, the cost support was strengthened, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was weak. Analysts of neopentyl glycol of business society believe that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

DOP prices rose sharply after the festival

According to the data monitoring of business society, DOP prices rose sharply after the festival, and the DOP market recovered. As of January 7, the DOP price was 10275 yuan / ton, up 5.12% from 9775 yuan / ton on January 1. After the festival, customers’ demand for replenishment rose, and DOP prices rose sharply.

The price of isooctanol rose sharply

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the domestic isooctanol price rose sharply after the festival, and the isooctanol rebounded and rose in late December. After the festival, customers replenished actively, stimulating the rise of isooctanol price, and the sharp rise of crude oil price. In addition, the low start of isooctanol stimulated the rise of isooctanol price. The market was cautious about purchasing high-end prices, and the market was still cautious about the future trend of isooctanol. In the future, the support for the rise of isooctanol price is insufficient, the downward pressure of plasticizer DOP remains, and the upward momentum is weakened.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride continued the trend of phthalic anhydride in December after the festival, and the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and rose. Downstream demand was stable, phthalic anhydride prices rose, downward pressure on DOP weakened, and upward momentum increased.

PVC market shock rebound

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the PVC price fluctuated and rose after the festival, and the PVC market became warmer. As of January 7, the price of PVC was 8340 yuan / ton, up 0.24% from 8320 yuan / ton on January 1. The spring festival atmosphere is getting stronger and the terminal enterprises are reducing their burdens one after another. Affected by the low real estate boom, the orders of terminal building materials are lower than those in previous years, and the rigid demand for PVC raw material procurement is expected to decrease one after another. Considering the preparation before the holiday, there is still a rigid demand; The overall demand for plasticizer is insufficient, and the DOP market is relatively bad.

Future expectations

DOP data analysts of business society believe that after the festival, the prices of raw materials isooctanol and phthalic anhydride fluctuated, the cost of DOP rose, and the price of DOP rose sharply. In the future, the rising support of raw materials is insufficient, the support of DOP cost is limited, and the downstream demand is insufficient. The rising power of DOP in the future is weakened, and the downward pressure remains. It is expected that the price of DOP will be weak and stabilize.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency: on January 6, the average price of domestic LNG was 4993.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 283 yuan / ton compared with 4710 yuan / ton before New Year’s day, an increase of 6.02% during the cycle and a decrease of 6.96% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

After the new year’s Day holiday, the domestic LNG price continued to rise, rising nearly 7% for three days, and the focus shifted upward. At the end of the new year’s Day holiday, the logistics recovered, the shipping atmosphere of the liquid plant was good, the liquid level decreased, the supply of imported gas decreased, and the price increased continuously, which boosted the rising atmosphere of domestic liquid plants. The daily rise rate on the first working day after the Festival was 0.78%, and the prices in some regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Henan rose. On the 5th, the trading and trading of the property market was actively repaired, and the liquid plants with low prices also rose, with the daily increase of domestic liquid prices of 1.33%. On the 6th, the increase expanded, Shaanxi increased by 300 yuan / ton, and other regions also actively followed the increase. At the same time, due to the improvement of trading in recent days, the inventory pressure of liquid plant was reduced, so that the price was pushed up. The auction of Northwest gas source ended in the second week of January, and the transaction price was 2.93-2.97 yuan / m3, up 0.05 yuan / m3 compared with the low-end and 0.08 yuan / m3 compared with the high-end of the previous cycle. The trading volume is 21 million cubic meters. At present, 4720-5100 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 4910-5070 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 4850-5250 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 4770-4950 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 5170-5500 yuan / ton in Hebei and 5200-5700 yuan / ton in Henan. The price of inlet gas is about 5050-6900 yuan / ton.

According to the weekly increase and decrease from October 11, 2021 to January 2, 2022, the domestic liquefied natural gas cycle showed mixed gains and losses, with an increase of 17.75% on October 11 and a decrease of 15.97% on December 6, and then began to rise continuously.

region Specifications January 6th December 31st Rise and fall

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 4720-5100 4650-4950 + 70/+150

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 4910-5070 4350-5050 + 560/+50

Shanxi liquified natural gas 4850-5250 4600-5200 -+ 250/+50

Ningxia liquified natural gas 4770-4950 4730-4780 + 40/+170

Henan liquified natural gas 5200-5700 4950-5350 + 250/+350

Hebei liquified natural gas 5170-5500 4950-5100 + 220/+400

Downstream products fell more or rose less:

Methanol, the negotiation range of methanol market in Dongying, Shandong Province on January 6 was 2330-2350 yuan / ton, which was delivered to cash exchange. The transaction was general, but most of them were cautious about the short-term future market. Most of the transactions in the methanol market in central Shandong are delivered to cash exchange at 2360-2380 yuan / ton. The quotation of the local methanol factory in central Shandong is stable to 2550 yuan / ton, and the factory provides cash exchange. The market is bullish. The offer price of methanol in southern Shandong is 2480 yuan / ton. The factory provides cash exchange nearby. Linyi receives the local offer price of about 2480 yuan / ton and sends it to cash exchange. The logistics offer is limited. The downstream receiving is cautious and the market negotiation is general.

Liquid ammonia, on the 6th, the market of liquid ammonia in Shandong stabilized. Today, the manufacturer’s quotation is generally stable, the manufacturer ships normally, and the inventory pressure is relieved. At present, the market demand is acceptable, the dealer’s offer price has little change compared with that before the festival, the downstream procurement is normal, and the market inventory continues to go. Today, the mainstream price in the region is 4000-4200 yuan / ton. The market is expected to operate steadily in the near future.

Urea, the domestic urea market rose on January 6, the prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas were adjusted at a low level recently, and the cost support was weakened. From the perspective of demand: the promotion of agricultural demand is accelerated, and industrial demand is mainly wait-and-see. Agricultural fertilizer preparation began to increase in some areas, and the winter storage of chemical fertilizer is expected to accelerate. The market price of melamine was adjusted at a low level, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation was weakened. In terms of supply, some gas head enterprises stopped production for maintenance, and the daily output of urea decreased slightly. On the whole, urea cost support weakened, downstream demand increased, urea supply was insufficient, and urea rose slightly in the future.

3、 Future forecast

The LNG analyst of business agency believes that after the new year’s day, the market trading atmosphere has improved, the inventory pressure of the liquid plant has been reduced, and a new round of Northwest feed gas price rise has improved the overnight liquid market. It is expected that the price will continue to rise in the short term.

The price of acetic anhydride fell still in December

According to the monitoring data of business society, the decline of acetic anhydride price slowed down in December. As of December 31, the price of acetic anhydride was 10350 yuan / ton, down 10.20% from 11525 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The acetic anhydride market remained weak in December, and the price of acetic anhydride continued to fall.

The price of raw material acetic acid fell

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in business society, the price of acetic acid fell by 6.07% in December. Although the price of acetic acid increased slightly in December, the price of acetic acid at the end of the month increased by 50 yuan / ton compared with the lowest price in the month, but it failed to form an upward trend for a long time. Acetic acid market is mainly cold.

Methanol prices fell sharply in December

According to the monitoring data of the business society, the methanol price fell sharply in December, and the methanol market continued to decline. As of December 31, the methanol price was 2375 yuan / ton, down 14.26% from 2770 yuan / ton on December 1 at the beginning of the month; The domestic methanol market fell sharply. The cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the pressure of acetic anhydride decline increased.

Outlook

Analysts of acetic anhydride data of business agency believe that the price of raw acetic acid fell and the price of methanol fell sharply in December. The cost of acetic anhydride decreased; The enthusiasm of downstream purchasing is cold, and customers are cautious. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, the demand was general, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

In December, the domestic styrene butadiene market declined weakly. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of butylbenzene 1502 was 13383 yuan / ton at the beginning of February and 12233 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 8.59% from the beginning of the month.

In December, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber started stably, the supply side was loose, and the merchant’s offer was loose. Later, the merchant’s offer fell with the decrease of the ex factory price of styrene butadiene manufacturers. Styrene butadiene rubber prices fell slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of December 31, the ex factory price of Jihua / Fushun 1502 of PetroChina Northeast sales company was reported as 12100 yuan / ton.

List of styrene butadiene rubber commencement in December.

Styrene butadiene rubber enterprise Unit capacity start

Qilu Petrochemical 230000 T / A normal operation

Jilin Petrochemical 140000 T / A Three line operation

Yangzi Petrochemical 100000 t / A normal operation

Shenhua chemical 170000 T / A Three line operation

Lanzhou Petrochemical 150000t / A Three line operation

Fushun Petrochemical 200000 t / A Four line operation

Bridgestone 50000 / year normal operation

Zhejiang Weitai 100000 / year Two line operation

Hangzhou Yibang 100000 / year Two line operation

According to the business agency, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber enterprises basically operated normally in December, the construction started higher than that in November, and the supply side was loose.

In December, the raw material butadiene fell sharply and styrene rose. Although the price of styrene rose, it was still low after rebounding this month due to the large decline in the early stage, and the cost was not supported by styrene butadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business society, as of December 31, the price of butadiene was 4451 yuan / ton, down 27.26% from 6120 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; As of December 31, the price of styrene was 8400 yuan / ton, up 7.87% from 7787 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In December, the natural rubber market fluctuated and consolidated. The price at the beginning of the month was 13770 yuan / ton, the low point in the month was 132250 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 13748 yuan / ton, down 0.16% from the beginning of the month.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the supply side is loose and the cost side support is weak. It is expected that the SBR will be weak in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

In December, under the cost support and demand suppression, the styrene price fell slowly after rising sharply, rebounded at the end of the month and rose as a whole. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of styrene was 7787.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and rose all the way to 8400.00 yuan / ton by mid December, up 7.87%. After that, it began to fall. To the 23rd, the price of styrene was 8000.00 yuan / ton, down 4.76% from the mid month high, but still up 2.73% from the beginning of the month. From the 23rd to the 31st, driven by the impact of cost support and the decline of port inventory, the price rebounded. On the 31st, the price of styrene was 8400 yuan / ton, up 7.87% from the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

This month, under the influence of cost support and obvious destocking performance of wharf inventory due to incremental pick-up, the styrene price superimposed the market’s short expectation that Wanhua and lihuayi will be put into operation, which generally showed a slow decline after a sharp rise, and rebounded at the end of the month.

At the beginning of the month, the international crude oil entered the state of rising consolidation. The market situation of pure benzene, the raw material at the cost side, became one of the driving forces for the bottom support and slight rise of styrene. The short upsurge of pure benzene Market in Shandong promoted the rise of futures prices during the cycle, thus driving the spot to rise slightly.

By mid to late October, crude oil rebounded after falling, and the macro performance was acceptable, but it had no support for styrene. Due to the continuous rise of pure benzene inventory at the port, the operators tend to be cautious about the future market. The spot price of pure benzene is slightly corrected. The fundamentals of styrene are good, its output is slightly reduced, the downstream demand is stable, and the wharf inventory has obvious destocking performance due to the increase of delivery. However, Wanhua and lihuayi are about to be put into operation, the market expectation is short, the position increase of styrene futures is down, and the spot of styrene is down slightly.

From the end of the last ten days to the end of the month, after the crude oil price rose, the outer disk price of pure benzene rose sharply, and the domestic spot and far month negotiations actively pursued the outer disk. Due to the impact of the health incident of the Yangtze River pilot, the unloading cycle of the main commercial inventory of pure benzene was prolonged, and the arrival of some ships in transit was expected to be delayed, resulting in large households filling the air and raising the market price. The cost side supports the strength of styrene price, coupled with the decline of styrene port inventory, short-term spot tension in some domestic regions, obvious market rally mentality, and the spot price of styrene rebounds gradually.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that after entering January, due to the reduction of imported shipments from January to February, new styrene units are put into operation, and the extension of the unloading period of pure benzene import ships in the river, pure benzene is expected to be transferred to the warehouse removal stage, and the price of pure benzene may fluctuate at a high level. The cost support of styrene is still strong, but the supply and demand of styrene itself is not optimistic. With the production of Wanhua and the recovery of the supply of parking devices in the early stage, the domestic supply increases, while the downstream is still in the off-season, and the inventories of the three downstream are at a high level, so the demand for styrene has not improved. On the whole, there is a collision between good and bad. If the cost support is relaxed in the later stage, It will drive the correction of styrene price.

Commodity index: the polyacrylamide commodity index on December 31 was 105.96, the same as yesterday, down 4.98% from the highest point of 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 27.83% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Data monitoring shows that in December, the market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China continued to decline. The mainstream price on the 1st was about 17987.5 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 31st was about 17342.86 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 3.58%. The supply of goods is brisk this month, but the market demand is general.

On the macro level, the expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories last week boosted oil prices, and tight supply formed a strong support for the oil market. Recently, international crude oil rose strongly. As of December 28, the settlement price of the main contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was reported at $75.98/barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was reported at $78.67/barrel.

As shown in the figure above, according to the price monitoring of the trading society, 78 commodities rose month on month in December 2021, mainly in the chemical sector (35 in total) and the non-ferrous sector (13 in total), and the commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top three commodities were chloroform (41.13%), lithium carbonate (37.11%) and dichloromethane (36.91%). A total of 141 commodities decreased month on month, mainly in chemical industry (62 in total) and rubber and plastics (19 in total), and commodities with a decrease of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the chemical sector; The commodities with the top three declines were melamine (- 40.08%), liquefied natural gas (- 30.46%) and baking soda (- 29.05%). The average rise and fall this month was – 1.69%.

Industrial chain: the price of raw material acrylonitrile continued to fluctuate and decrease this month, and the range gradually expanded. In particular, it decreased for 4 consecutive days in the last week, with a total monthly decrease of 2000 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream quotation in the domestic market has fallen from 15400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to about 13400 yuan / ton.

As shown in the figure above, the market price of raw acrylic acid fell sharply this month. On the 1st, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 17000 yuan / ton, and on the 31st, the average market price was 13200 yuan / ton, down 22.35%. After the acrylic acid market fell sharply, the prices of some enterprises rose slightly. At the beginning of the month, the price of raw propylene was lowered, the cost support was weakened, the inventory of production plants was low, the downstream was mainly purchased on demand, and the market was weak and stable. With the price of raw propylene rising first and then falling, the supply of acrylic acid is sufficient, coupled with the weak follow-up of downstream demand, the market inquiry and transaction are depressed, and the price has fallen sharply. In the second half of the month, the market negotiation gradually bottomed out, the overseas mainstream units were force majeure, the export inquiry turned better, the prices of some enterprises increased, the raw propylene market was consolidated and operated, the cost support was limited, the downstream procurement was mainly on demand, and the market inquiry and transaction performance were general. The analysis shows that at present, the price of raw material propylene is mainly stable, with little impact on the cost, and the downstream goods are mainly prepared on demand. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be consolidated and operated stably in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

LNG is used in the production process. In the fourth quarter, domestic LNG prices rose first and then fell, and the peak season was not prosperous. In October, the demand for urban fuel increased, the price of raw materials increased, the overhaul of liquid plants, the tightening of market supply and other multiple positive superposition, which boosted the increase of liquid price by nearly 30% and shifted the focus upward. Early November is the highest point of the year, and then the downlink channel is opened. The downward trend did not stop in December, and Xinjiang fell to around 2000 yuan. Near the end of the month, the temperature has dropped sharply recently, the market trading atmosphere has improved, and the inventory pressure of liquid plants has been reduced. With the shutdown of some liquid plants and the consideration of cost, the domestic liquid price has continued to rise.

As for the future, the market of raw material acrylonitrile decreased significantly and the decline increased, the price of acrylic acid increased weakly, and the support of cost market was seriously unstable; At present, some enterprises in the main domestic production areas have stopped work before the Spring Festival, with sufficient supply in the market and general downstream demand. It is predicted that the trend of polyacrylamide will be stable and weak in the future. If the raw material price continues to decline frequently and sharply, it is likely that the polyacrylamide market will decline sharply.