1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, caprolactam increased by 25.45% in 2021, with the largest increase of 55.73% in the year. On January 1, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 11000 yuan / ton, and on December 30, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 13800 yuan / ton. The highest price of caprolactam in the year is 16300 yuan / ton, and the lowest price in the year is 10466 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

In 2021, the market trend of caprolactam first rose and then fell. The price of caprolactam fluctuated and rose from the middle of January, and began to fluctuate and fall to the end of the year after rising to the highest price in October. The biggest increase in the year was in February, with an increase of 23.05%. The biggest decline in the year was in November, with a decline of 9.12%.

From January 2021 to October 2021, the price of caprolactam fluctuated and increased by 47.05%. The market of raw material pure benzene has strengthened, and the price has risen sharply, which has strong and powerful support for the cost of caprolactam. Caprolactam entered the peak maintenance season in March, and the sharp decline in spot supply supported the spot price of caprolactam. At the same time, after the Spring Festival, the downstream PA6 operation level recovered rapidly, the demand increased, and the caprolactam price was raised. The cost, supply and demand of domestic caprolactam are favorable, and the market direction is clear. Caprolactam market trend is optimistic. In October, the price of caprolactam rose to the highest price of 16300 yuan / ton in the year.

From November 2021 to December 2021, the price of caprolactam continued to decline, with a decrease of 14.68%. The raw material pure benzene is in a downward trend, and the cost support is insufficient. The units of some caprolactam enterprises were restarted, and the supply increased. The downstream slice Market is light and the demand side is weak. Under the dual pressure of cost and demand, caprolactam ran down from weak in November to the end of the year.

In 2021, the total capacity of caprolactam was 5.39 million tons, an increase of 1.06 million tons compared with last year, an increase of 24.48%. In 2021, the total import volume of caprolactam from January to November was 101715.01 tons, and the total export volume from January to November was about 2531.35 tons. The import volume decreased and the export volume increased compared with last year.

New capacity of the enterprise. In 2021, Fujian Shenyuan put into operation 200000 tons of caprolactam, with a production capacity of 600000 tons. Inner Mongolia Qinghua Group 200000 tons put into operation. Xuyang group expanded its production capacity from 200000 tons to 300000 tons. Hualu Hengsheng production capacity of 300000 tons was successfully put into operation.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that the cost support is good in 2021 due to the enhanced trend of raw material market. The caprolactam unit is overhauled in turn, the supply end is tight, and the demand for caprolactam increases. Under multiple favorable conditions, caprolactam has a better trend this year and the market weakened at the end of the year. 2021 is coming to an end, and the short-term market is running smoothly.

In December, after that, the power of consumer terminals was insufficient, and manufacturers preferred to ship to the warehouse. It was difficult to be optimistic about the overall market. There was no positive support at the upstream and downstream, and the price of viscose staple fiber fell sharply twice.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business society, as of December 29, the domestic ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 12180 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1780 yuan / ton compared with the price at the end of November, a decrease of 12.75%.

During this period, it experienced two sharp declines. The first time: on December 2, 2021, the domestic ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 13180 yuan / ton, a decrease of about 780 yuan / ton compared with the end of November, and the price reduction range was 5.59%; The second time: on December 27, the domestic ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 12180 yuan / ton, down about 680 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, with a price reduction of 5.29%.

Light demand for textile terminals

Since November, the signing quantity of chemical fiber plants has been poor, and the downstream terminal demand has weakened obviously. Affected by this, the wait-and-see mood of downstream weaving, fabric enterprises and middlemen has increased, and the procurement has slowed down significantly or even suspended. In December, the textile terminal weaving market continued to weaken, and the operating load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang was around 62%. There are no new orders in the hands of some factories. In addition, the production inventory risk is high, and the new year is approaching, the start-up rate of terminal weaving may continue to decline. At present, the procurement of weaving factories is moderately followed up, focusing on cautious procurement.

Upstream staple and pulp Market

In December, the plan of converting some pulp units to dissolved pulp may be shelved due to the market. Due to the weakness of viscose staple fiber market, the quotation of raw pulp fell slightly. The inquiry of domestic dissolved pulp is limited, the trading volume is under pressure, and the price is loose with the imported pulp. In the spot market, recently, the average quotation of broad-leaved dissolved pulp in the outer market is around 910 US dollars / ton, and the price of domestic dissolved pulp is 6500-7000 yuan / ton. The actual transaction can be negotiated, but the transaction is not good.

The price of cotton yarn followed the decline

In December, cotton yarn continued its weak operation, the price continued to fall with the raw viscose staple fiber, the trading atmosphere was weak, and the downstream terminal demand was weak. According to the price monitoring of the business society, as of December 29, 2021, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30s, ring spinning, first-class products) was 18266 yuan / ton, down nearly 1000 yuan / ton compared with the end of November, with a decrease of 5.20%.

In December, with the downward adjustment of the price of viscose staple fiber, the upstream raw material, and the continuous holiday and shutdown of terminal factories near the Spring Festival, there were many negative factors on the fundamentals. The manufacturers expressed pessimistic attitude towards the future market. Analysts of the business society expect that the short-term human cotton yarn market will be mainly sorted downward.

Judging from the current market situation, due to the insufficient demand for orders, the domestic terminal demand is difficult to improve. In December, with the downward adjustment of the price of upstream raw viscose staple fiber and the continuous suspension of terminal factories near the Spring Festival, the accumulation of products in the downstream textile factories is becoming more and more obvious. In addition, the cash flow pressure before the Spring Festival is large, the textile factories began to clear their warehouses and collect money, The purchase intention of human cotton yarn decreased significantly. There are many negative fundamentals. Manufacturers are pessimistic about the outlook. Business analysts expect that the short-term cotton yarn market will be mainly sorted down.

Future forecast

According to the experience of previous years, there will be a wave of “xiaoyangchun” market in the raw material market in late December to replenish the stock for the Spring Festival, but this wave of “xiaoyangchun” has failed this year. The later trend of the sticky short market mainly depends on the upstream and downstream game and the demand of downstream terminals. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the terminal factories are going to have holidays and stop production one after another. There are many negative fundamentals and the new year is approaching. It is expected that the market situation of viscose staple fiber will remain weak in the future, and the price may have been dominated by weak consolidation.

In December, the price focus of propane market still shifted downward, and the overall trend was first restrained and then increased. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 5770.75 yuan / ton on December 1 and 5435.75 yuan / ton on December 28, with a decrease of 5.81% during the month and 16.51% compared with November 1.

As of December 28, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

region December 28th

East China 5450-5500 yuan / ton

North China 5350-5450 yuan / ton

Shandong region 5250-5450 yuan / ton

Northeast China 5400-5500 yuan / ton

In December, the domestic propane market continued to decline, the center of gravity still shifted downward, and the trend of the South and North markets was weak. Although the international crude oil rose sharply in December, it brought Limited benefits to the propane Market. In December, CP prices fell sharply, which brought obvious bad news to the domestic market. The supply in Shandong market was relatively sufficient, and the cooling of the weather in the first half of the month was not obvious. The terminal demand was limited, the downstream market entry enthusiasm was not high, the manufacturer’s shipment was general, and the profit making shipment was dominated one after another. Until the end of the month, the continuous increase of international crude oil brought some support to the market, and the terminal demand increased significantly after the winter solstice. The downstream market entry enthusiasm was better than that in the early stage, the manufacturer’s mentality was strong, and the price rebounded.

Saudi Aramco announced in December 2021 that both propylene and butane fell. Propane was 790 USD / T, down 80 USD / T from the previous month; Butane was 770 USD / T, down 60 USD / T from the previous month.

At present, the international crude oil is rising, the news is good, the market mentality is good, and the north and South markets are rising to varying degrees. The terminal demand has increased, the downstream market is active, and the market trading atmosphere is better than that in the early stage. However, near the end of the month, CP will be introduced in January, and it is expected to fall, which will bring some restraint to the market. The propane market is expected to rise first and then fall in January.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the TDI market price trend this week was stable, medium and small. On December 24, the average market price in East China was 16125 yuan / ton. Compared with 16100 yuan / ton on December 18, the average market price in the week increased by 0.16% and 12.17% month on month.

The domestic TDI market is dominated by consolidation and operation. Last week, most domestic devices were shut down for maintenance, the on-site spot supply was tight, and the TDI offer rose to a high level. This week, some devices in the market were restarted, but the short-term on-site spot supply is still tight, the market suppliers occupy a dominant position, the price holders are keen to keep their prices, the offer is high and stable, the downstream inquiry is rational, and the market purchase is mainly in demand, The market transaction is light, and the atmosphere in the venue is more cautious. As of the 24th, the reference for domestic goods with tickets in the mainstream market in East China is about 15200-15500 yuan / ton, and that for Shanghai goods with tickets is 15500-15800 yuan / ton, mainly through real order negotiation. The dealer’s quotation was adjusted according to the market news, and the price remained high and stable during the week.

The upstream toluene market continued to decline, and the price decreased by 4.33% within the week. As of December 24, the domestic average price of toluene was 5530.00 yuan / ton. Toluene port inventory increases, market supply accumulates, while downstream demand maintains rigid demand, the enthusiasm for entering the market procurement is weak, the mentality of operators is negative, and the focus of toluene market continues to move downward.

According to the analysis of TDI data division of business society, at present, the supply of goods in the domestic TDI market continues to be tight, and the supply side continues to be good. However, the sales volume of terminal products is general, and the market demand is weak, resulting in cold transactions in the market, which suppresses the increase of TDI from the demand side. The market is in a state of supply-demand game, and the short-term TDI market is in a stalemate. As the supply side enterprise devices recover, The price may be reduced in the later stage. Pay attention to the supplier’s devices and downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on January 1 was 2440 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on December 24 was 3600 yuan / ton. The overall increase in the whole year was 47.54%, and the maximum increase in the year was 48.57%. The highest price of diammonium phosphate in the year is 3625 yuan / ton, and the lowest price in the year is 2440 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

The total capacity of diammonium phosphate in 2020 is 20.82 million tons, and there is no new capacity in 2021 compared with last year. The total output of diammonium phosphate from January to November in 2021 is 13.0565 million tons. In 2020, the total output of diammonium phosphate will be 12.7752 million tons. This year is 2.20% higher than last year. The total export volume from January to November 2021 is about 6.2177 million tons, and the export volume in 2020 is about 5.73 million tons, an increase of 18.72% over last year.

In 2021, the price of diammonium phosphate continued to rise from the beginning of the year. After rising to the highest price in August, it began to operate smoothly until the end of the year. The biggest increase in the year was in February, with an increase of 16.47%. The biggest decline in the year was in April, with a decline of 1.59%.

In the first stage (January March), the price of diammonium phosphate rose continuously, with an increase of 29.10%.

The price of diammonium increased in January. Mainly due to the tight supply of goods in the field, the upward trend of raw materials, the stable demand for winter storage, the increase of inquiry heat in the downstream, no pressure on sales of diammonium phosphate enterprises, queuing for delivery, strong price support and strong positive support, diammonium phosphate has a strong trend. In February, the market was still relatively stable, the price was not loose, and the mentality of the industry was good. After the Spring Festival, the calm was broken, diammonium rose sharply, most enterprises stopped reporting and did not collect money, and mainly issued early orders. In March, domestic orders were received in limited quantity, and the market supply was tight. In spring farming season, the demand side was strongly supported, and the trend of diammonium phosphate was strong in the situation of supply exceeding demand.

In the first stage (April May), the price of diammonium phosphate fell by 2.65%.

Since April, the rise of diammonium phosphate has been suspended, the price tends to be stable, and diammonium phosphate has entered the stalemate operation stage. The domestic market is weak, and enterprises and traders are mainly export-oriented. There is a large amount of enterprises to be issued. Some enterprises have been overhauled, and the market supply has decreased. The downstream demand for diammonium is insufficient, and the spring farming market has entered the closing stage.

In the third stage (June August), the price of diammonium phosphate increased by 17.55%.

Since June, the price of diammonium has started to rise again. The atmosphere of the export market is good, the waiting volume is large, and the supply of goods is tight. Some enterprises stop for maintenance, most enterprises suspend their quotation, and the actual transaction can be negotiated. The price of raw materials is high. Supported by the cost, it rose to the highest point of 3625 yuan / ton in August. From the second half of August, the price of diammonium tends to stabilize. The pending orders of diammonium decreased and the market trend gradually weakened. Due to the poor price of urea, the trend of downstream compound fertilizer is weak, the demand for diammonium is reduced, and the overall market is weak. The quotation of most enterprises was suspended and the unit was operated under reduced load. The progress of winter storage market is slow, and there is no clear guidance in the market.

In the fourth stage (September December), the price of diammonium phosphate fell by 0.14%

Continuing the trend at the end of August, the market of diammonium began to stabilize from September to the end of the year. Diammonium phosphate has a large number of domestic orders. Most enterprises still mainly send early orders and do not receive payment temporarily. Most enterprises have no quotation for the time being. Under the influence of power and production restriction and environmental protection, diammonium continues to operate at a high level. Although the price of raw materials rose, the cost support was good. However, the progress of winter storage market is slow, the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are cautious in taking goods, and the transaction on the site is not ideal.

3、 Future forecast

According to ammonium phosphate analysts of business society, the overall performance of diammonium phosphate Market in 2021 is strong. Since the beginning of the year, the price has risen continuously to a high level. Due to power and production restriction and environmental protection, the price of raw materials rose, the supply of diammonium was insufficient, the downstream demand was actively followed up, and multiple advantages led to the sharp rise of diammonium market. At the end of the year, demand began to weaken and ended weakly and steadily. It is expected that the recent market will be dominated by weak and stable operation.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices continued to decline this week. The average price of domestic isopropanol was 6783.33 yuan / ton last Thursday and 6850 yuan / ton this Thursday. The price increased by 0.98% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: comparison of price trend of acetone and isopropanol from October to December

The domestic isopropanol market picked up slightly this week. The raw material acetone market continued the downturn trend, and the cost suppressed the market mentality. The downstream orders were received cautiously, the buying enthusiasm was limited, and the price picked up slowly. Up to now, most quotations of Shandong isopropanol are about 6700-6800 yuan / ton; Most quotation ranges of Jiangsu isopropanol are about 7050 yuan / ton; Most quotations of isopropanol in Zhejiang are about 7000 yuan / ton. Internationally, on December 14, the U.S. isopropanol closed down, and the European isopropanol market closed basically stable.

In terms of raw acetone, the domestic acetone market continued to be depressed. On December 15, the offer in East China market was 5275 yuan / ton and on December 22, it was 5240 yuan / ton, which continued to run at a low level. In terms of the national market, as of the 22nd, the bottom rebound in East China was 50 yuan / ton, the negotiation was 5180-5200 yuan / ton, the offer in Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas was 5200 yuan / ton, and the offer in South China was 5350 yuan / ton. The business agency expects the short-term acetone market range to be sorted and operated, and the reference price negotiated in East China is 5150-5200 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw propylene, as of the 22nd, the trend of propylene (Shandong) tends to be stable, and the mainstream price of propylene in Shandong is 7400-7450 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of crude oil fluctuates all the way, which has limited boost to the propylene market. The downstream market is dominated by just demand, the procurement atmosphere is not high, the market supply is sufficient, and the demand pull is limited.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst of the chemical branch of business society believes that the domestic isopropanol market has warmed up slightly. The prices of raw materials acetone and propylene are still weak, and the cost support is insufficient. Operators should wait and see. It is expected that in the short term, the isopropanol market will be dominated by stalemate, consolidation and operation.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 22, the average price of organosilicon DMC market quotation in mainstream areas was 24330 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on December 1 (reference price 30800 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 6470 yuan / ton, a decrease of 21.1%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that in early December, the domestic silicone DMC market was weak and operated. After the big factories in Shandong continuously reduced the silicone DMC quotation at the end of November, the silicone DMC yard maintained a weak sorting operation at the beginning of this month. On the 3rd, some high-end quotation monomer factories in the early stage reduced the DMC ex factory price by about 200-300 yuan / ton, The mainstream ex factory price of organosilicon DMC is 30100-31000 yuan / ton, and the average price is 30600 yuan / ton. After a few days of temporary stable operation of the market, the cost support for organosilicon DMC continues to loosen due to the reduction of the price of raw metal silicon. In addition, the downstream demand performance is still insufficient, and the transaction of new orders is limited. Under the pressure of both cost and demand, it will start on the 7th, The domestic organosilicon DMC market has opened a road of sharp decline. Shandong big factory took the lead in reducing the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC by 2500 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of organosilicon DMC of this factory fell to 27400 yuan / ton. Then, the air atmosphere was filled in the field, and major monomer factories followed suit to reduce the ex factory price of organic silicon DMC. On the 9th, the price of organosilicon DMC experienced a steep decline, The low-end quotation of organosilicon DMC in the venue fell to 25200 yuan / ton, with a maximum drop of nearly 5000 yuan / ton. However, under the lack of effective support, the silicone DMC market continued to run downward. On the 17th, the average price of domestic silicone DMC fell below the 24000 yuan level, and the average price has fallen to 23900 yuan / ton, a decrease of 22.40% compared with the beginning of the month.

After the price of silicone DMC has fallen to a relatively low level, the phased stock of downstream manufacturers has increased, and the atmosphere in the venue has improved. On the 21st, the domestic organosilicon DMC market finally saw a slight recovery. The large factories in Shandong raised the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC to 24500 yuan / ton, and then some other monomer factories also raised the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC to 500 yuan / ton. At present, as of the 22nd, the ex factory price of domestic organosilicon DMC is 24000-25000 yuan / ton, and the average price is 24300 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 21.1% in the month.

In terms of index, it can be seen from the k-column chart of silicone DMC week that since November, the domestic silicone DMC market has continued to decline at a high level. At present, the silicone DMC commodity index on December 21 was 123.40, up 0.2 points from yesterday, down 62.52% from the highest point of 329.21 in the cycle (2021-10-10), and up 75.28% from the lowest point of 70.40 on July 27, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to the period since September 1, 2011)

In terms of upstream metal silicon, in December, the domestic metal silicon 441# market fell sharply. At the beginning of the month, the metal silicon shipment was poor and the market trading atmosphere was light. In the late stage, the metal silicon price showed a slight upward trend, but the downstream still needed some time to digest the price rise. It was difficult for the high price silicon, and the terminal demand of domestic aluminum alloy and silicone plants was weak. In addition, under the influence of the epidemic, Jiangsu and Zhejiang stopped production and started again. However, due to the slowdown of production at the end of the year, the purchase demand for raw materials is low. It is expected that the rise and fall will not be too large in the short term. According to the monitoring data of business society, the reference price of metal silicon was 22090 yuan / ton on December 21, down 21.05% compared with December 1 (27980 yuan / ton).

Future trend forecast of silicone DMC Market

At present, the market price of silicone DMC is expected to pick up, but the market of downstream silicone products is weak and the support for silicone DMC is limited. The silicone DMC datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the silicone DMC market will be adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

In recent years, China’s polypropylene production capacity has expanded rapidly, and the industry has developed rapidly. The worldwide public health events in 2021 are still affecting people’s production and life on a large scale, but domestic polypropylene enterprises and employees forge ahead, stabilize supply and ensure construction, and the production supply of various models is relatively abundant throughout the year; All new production lines are tested step by step to produce materials, which contributes to the backbone of the domestic polypropylene market. The continuous practice of accurate domestic epidemic prevention policies has enabled the market to return to the supply and demand market as soon as possible. The growing demand of terminal industry is the main driving force for the rapid growth of domestic polypropylene industry. According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic polypropylene market in 2021 is generally stable. As of December 21, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic manufacturers and traders is about 8150.00 yuan / ton, the price of most brand products has dropped to the price level at the beginning of the year, the output and consumption have increased, and the supply and demand are booming.

Cause analysis

It is hard to say that the opening market of 2021 is positive for polypropylene. The upstream propylene undertakes the declining market last year, the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is too high, and the shipment situation is cold. At the same time, logistics has also been greatly affected, which has a negative impact on PP market. In February, the inventory accumulation of PetroChina and PetroChina began gradually before the inventory Festival. The inventory position of plastic weaving and BOPP plants was relatively high. The stagflation adjustment in injection molding and wire drawing was also highly related to short-term oversupply. By the middle and late February, although the units of Donghua energy Ningbo phase II project began to be put into operation and the social inventory was high, the original PP price was weak in the strong country. The superimposed cold disaster in the United States caused a reduction in crude oil production and a rise in the price of remote raw oil. At the same time, many chemical enterprises in the disaster stricken areas of the United States stopped production, and the devices were frequently overhauled. Similarly, affected by the earthquake in Japan, the plant was also shut down on a large scale. The industry is worried about the insufficient supply of chemicals, has strengthened its mentality towards the price of bulk commodities, and the global PP generally rose sharply. Domestically, affected by the local spring festival advocacy, the downstream has resumed work rapidly this year, the accumulated demand has increased in advance, the market has warmed up rapidly, and the supply in Northeast China has even been tight to a certain extent. In March, the price of PP was at a high level, affecting the purchase of downstream factories, and the spot price stagnated and fell. In the first quarter, the domestic epidemic prevention situation was stable and good, and PP fiber material and PP melt blown material, one of the important epidemic prevention materials, also fell after rising. Fortunately, the demand at home and abroad is still stable, but there are varying degrees of excess suppliers in the fiber material and melt blown material manufacturing market, and the enterprise profits begin to shrink. ExxonMobil, jumeilai and other high melting fiber products of major international manufacturers have been reduced one after another.

In the second quarter, with the end of the rise in the upstream propylene price in late April, the price fell sharply, PP was also unstable, and the spot price fluctuated widely. In the first quarter, the overall average operating rate of domestic polypropylene plants was about 93%, which was at a historical high. The competition in the industry was strengthened, the profits of some PP polymerization enterprises were upside down in the second quarter, and there was a certain degree of contradiction between supply and demand in the PP market. It is worth mentioning that in the second quarter, China’s overseas export orders increased commendably, but the impact on the market was less than expected. The increase of trading resistance was one of the main reasons for the market in the second quarter. By June, the decline of upstream propylene stopped and the support of PP cost side rebounded. The traditional off-season demand affects the decline of demand, and the power restriction policy in some regions affects the industrial load, but the overall supply situation is relatively stable. At the end of the second quarter, the high international oil price supported the products related to the chemical industry chain, and the low inventory of petrochemical plants after going to the warehouse. These two advantages neutralized the negative effects, and the prices of polypropylene wire drawing and fiber products were strong. However, melt blown PP decreased significantly. At the end of June, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material pph-y1500 sample enterprises was about 9733.33 yuan / ton, falling below the 10000 yuan mark. The saturation of the domestic melt blown cloth manufacturing market has not improved for a long time, the departure of production enterprises has become prominent, and the number of units still shipping at the end of the year has decreased significantly. The overseas epidemic prevention market focuses more on the demand for oxygen generator and other equipment products, and the pulling effect on melt blown PP industry is not obvious. It is difficult to meet the demand for melt blown materials, and it is expected that the price market may continue to be weak.

Polypropylene products entered the market in the second half of the year, the overall shock was weak in the first and middle of the third quarter, and the spot price was adjusted in a narrow range. The load of downstream enterprises is not high, and the off-season characteristic of weak demand follow-up continues until the beginning of the traditional peak season “golden nine and silver ten” of PP industry. In the traditional peak season of 2021, the sharp rise of coal trend is indispensable. The PP market in September was mainly affected by the cost side benefit, of which the coal PP was the most obvious. During the period of plant restart and new capacity start-up, although the overall load of the industry was as high as 90%, the supply was high. However, the key “golden nine” demand driving force is limited. According to the survey of business analysts, the horizontal comparison of centralized replenishment intensity in PP market in September this year was weaker than that in previous years. During this period, the admission of environmental protection policies regulated the operating rate of upstream and downstream enterprises of PP, the feedback of downstream enterprises on high price sources was poor, and the shipment fluency of merchants was general, which formed resistance to the rise of spot price. In the third quarter, the rise of PP was mainly driven by the rise of propylene and coal on the cost side. After long-term adjustment, the price of PP fiber materials and melt blown materials, which rose due to worldwide health events, finally returned to rationality in 2021.

In October, the industry went up and down sharply. In terms of energy, the national development and Reform Commission strengthened the investigation and punishment of capital malicious speculation of coal, and the coal price stagnated and corrected. Coupled with the inflow of low-cost sources of propylene after the festival, the price began to callback further. There are many adjustment and reduction in the upstream, and the PP cost end support collapses. Local environmental protection policies continue to affect the industry and its downstream operating rate. The downstream demand is lower than that in the same period of previous years, dragging down the spot price of PP. Although the purchase follow-up of end users was not timely, the automobile and other industries just needed to be stable, raised a certain amount of demand, reduced the supply of low-cost goods in the field, and stabilized after the merchant reported the decline. The bottom building energy of downstream industries expresses the fall resistance property of PP. In terms of meltblown materials, the epidemic situation rebounded briefly in a small range in October and stabilized after rising. The supply pattern of meltblown materials in the field is still abundant, and the pulling effect of the spot market is seriously diluted. At present, the domestic polypropylene market is in a weak operation, repaired after the sharp fall of international oil price, and the propylene market is in sufficient supply to maintain a volatile downward trend. PP supply remained stable, and the on-site maintenance production line decreased. The downstream operating rate is still average, and businesses stabilized after falling.

Near the new year, some new production lines have landed around New Year’s day. 2022 and even 2023 are still the years of rapid development of China’s polypropylene industry. Domestic PP enterprises not only have made great progress in output, but also pay attention to the research and development of new products. New PP products for various purposes emerge one after another. If all recent projects start up and produce materials one after another, China’s PP production capacity will increase by about 8.7 million tons / year, and the total production capacity is expected to reach about 37.7 million tons / year. In the pattern of large-scale increase in supply, polypropylene prices can still return to the same period last year. In addition to the impact of global macro inflation, the development of terminal enterprises is an important new force supporting China’s PP industry chain.

Commodity index: on December 20, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 108.15, up 0.09 points from yesterday, down 3.01% from the highest point of 111.51 points in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 30.47% from the lowest point of 82.89 points on August 2, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Data monitoring shows that in the first and middle of December, the market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China was flat after a slight shock, that is, the mainstream market price on the 1st was about 17987.5 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price on the 20th was about 17700 yuan / ton, down 1.6%. Recently, the market demand is weak, the transaction is general, and the market is slightly weak.

International crude oil fundamentals play a long and short game. The Omicron strain still hinders economic recovery. Recently, IEA’s expectation of excess crude oil supply continues to pressurize the oil price, but OPEC + maintains a moderate increase in production policy, tight supply forms a strong support for the oil market, and the crude oil price may rise slightly; Despite the impact of environmental protection and dual control policies in winter, limited production and shutdown in many places, and the commencement of basic chemicals affect the market supply, due to the low heat of downstream demand, the ex factory price of water treatment products has been adjusted slightly. Since December, the polyacrylamide market has experienced a slight decrease, but the overall adjustment range is not very large.

Raw material acrylonitrile, the market of raw material acrylonitrile fluctuated and decreased by about 300 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream quotation in the market is 15100 yuan / ton. The market expects that acrylonitrile will weaken in the near future, and there is no risk of sharp decline. So far this month, the supply has been gradually released, the domestic trade ships in East China port will arrive, the new production capacity is expected, and the pessimistic expectation is aggravated. The time for the centralized shutdown and restart of acrylamide plants in Ningbo is not clear, the production is limited by environmental protection in the North, the industrial operating rate is slightly high, at the same time, the emergency response of heavy pollution natural gas, and the shutdown of mining and downstream water treatment demand enterprises. The buyer should follow up carefully, The circulation of goods slowed down, and the market price was obviously depressed.

As shown in the figure above, the market price of raw acrylic acid fell in the first and middle of December. The average price of acrylic acid in East China on the 1st was 17000 yuan / ton, and the average market price on the 20th was 13100 yuan / ton, down 22.94%. last week (December 13-december 17) the quotations of acrylic acid enterprises in East China were mixed, and the overall price rose slightly. Recently, the raw material propylene market was consolidated and operated, the cost support was limited, the spot supply in the early market was improved, the demand side was not followed up, the inquiry and transaction performance were general, the price of acrylic acid fell, the market negotiation gradually bottomed out, the overseas mainstream devices were force majeure, and the export inquiry turned better , the prices of some enterprises increased. At present, the price of raw material propylene is mainly stable, the cost support is general, and the market inquiry atmosphere is good. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market may be stable, medium and strong, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

LNG is used in the production process. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas fluctuated all the way in the first and middle of December: the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on the 1st was 6773.33 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on the 20th was 4440 yuan / ton, a sharp drop of 34.45%, and the focus shifted down sharply. The LNG analyst of business society believes that at present, there is still no obvious improvement in demand, the market continues to be sluggish in the peak season, and there is a certain pressure on shipment in some regions or affected by public health events. It is expected that domestic LNG is still expected to decline in the short term.

As for the future market, bulk commodities are weak, raw material prices are weak, market support is unstable, downstream demand is general, and there is no risk of significant weakening of polyacrylamide trend,; Although the environmental protection and dual control policies in many cities in winter led to manufacturers’ production restriction and shutdown, the weak demand led to a weak market. In the current environment, polyacrylamide market is expected to fluctuate slightly in the short term.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China fell from 4933.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 4866.67 yuan / ton this weekend, down 66.66 yuan / ton, down 1.35%, up 16.33% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell slightly this week, and there is still a downward trend at the weekend. On December 17, the calcium carbide commodity index was 127.51, down 0.87 points from yesterday, down 39.92% from the highest point of 212.23 points in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 129.79% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to the period since September 1, 2011)

Upstream cost support weakened and downstream demand declined

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganone quoted 4950 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, which fell by 50 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Inner Mongolia Zoomlion quoted 4750 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, down 150 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The quotation of calcium carbide in Xingping, Ningxia this weekend is 4900 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market, the ex factory quotation of Lantan fell slightly this week. The quotation of Shenmu small materials this weekend is 1650 yuan / ton, which is 20 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; The quotation of Sinoma this weekend is 1670 yuan / ton, which is 30 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; The quotation of bulk materials this weekend is 1700 yuan / ton, which is 30 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend. The price of upstream raw materials fell slightly and the cost support weakened, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

From the downstream market, the ex factory price of PVC fell slightly this week. The price of PVC this week fell from 8790.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 8440.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 3.98%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.56%. PVC prices fell slightly this week, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

Downstream products lack the power to rise, and calcium carbide fell slightly in the aftermarket

In late December, the calcium carbide market may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon fell slightly, the cost support of calcium carbide weakened, and the downstream PVC market also showed a downward trend. It was difficult for the market to improve, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in late December.