2.14 aluminum price callback

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on February 14 was 22710 yuan / ton, down 1.03% per day, up 5.17% from the average market price of 21593.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (2.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton in early January (January 1), it increased by 11.49%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen 6.31% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 21.49% recently.

Main cause of callback

On the 11th, the aluminum price began to callback at a high level, interrupting the continuous rising market in the early stage.

The recent correction of aluminum price, on the one hand, is based on the rapid rise of aluminum price in a short time after the festival, and the downstream undertaking is weak; According to insiders, the aluminum price exceeded 23000 yuan / ton last week, and the market turnover decreased sharply. On the other hand, considering the Winter Olympics after the festival, the resumption rate of downstream aluminum rod plants and profiles in the northern region was lower than expected. Affected by the rise of aluminum price, the overall mood of replenishing and preparing warehouses in the downstream was not high, and the centralized resumption time of processing plants was in the second half of this month.

Future forecast

After the quarter, the aluminum price rose sharply. After breaking through 23000 points, the long short game intensified, the downstream wait-and-see mood was strong, and the taking of goods decreased sharply. It is expected that the recent high-level shock operation will be dominated.

Aluminum price callback on the 11th

According to the data of business agency, on February 11, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 22946.67 yuan / ton, down 1.53% per day, up 6.27% from the average market price of 21593.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (2.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton in early January (January 1), it increased by 12.65%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 5.34% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 22.75% recently.

Main driving force of strong operation

Yesterday, the aluminum price broke through 23000 yuan / ton again and began to callback today. On the one hand, the total inventory of the company is 26690 tons, which is lower than that of the previous week. LME inventory was 880975 tons, an increase of 119025 tons over the previous trading day.

From a fundamental point of view, the internal and external reasons for the strong aluminum price remain.

There are three internal reasons for the recent strong operation of aluminum price:

1. The circulation of aluminum ingots in some areas of Guangxi has been blocked due to public health events, and the aluminum ingot inventory in Baise has basically changed to the factory inventory; Baise is the largest aluminum production city in Guangxi. According to the data, the completed production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Guangxi is about 2.82 million tons, of which the completed production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Baise is 2.32 million tons, accounting for more than 80% of the total production capacity in Guangxi. However, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in Guangxi has been insufficient due to power and other reasons. By the end of January, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Guangxi was about 1.98 million tons, of which the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Baise was 1.73 million tons, It accounts for 4% – 5% of the national operation capacity.

2. On the cost side, alumina prices rose slightly. Affected by the Winter Olympics, the operating capacity of alumina in Shanxi, Shandong and Henan has been reduced, about 15 million, with an average daily production reduction of 40000 tons. After the festival, there is more inventory digestion, and there is a large demand for replenishment of aluminum plants.

3. From the inventory data, the social inventory accumulation data of the Spring Festival is good. As of July 7, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 866000 tons, which is not much larger than that before the festival. In addition, there are more export orders from downstream enterprises recently, and the market sentiment is rising.

The external factors mainly focus on the production reduction caused by the early European energy problems.

Future forecast

The fundamentals of aluminum ingots have improved and the demand is expected to rise. After the quarter, the aluminum price rose sharply. After breaking through 23000 points, the long short game intensified, the downstream wait-and-see mood was strong, and the taking of goods decreased sharply. It is expected that the recent high-level shock operation will be dominated.

Market price of main domestic hydrogenated benzene Market on February 10 (unit: yuan / ton)

Market, Price on February 10

East China, eight thousand and twenty-five

Shandong Province, eight thousand and twenty-five

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

January 11, 7400.,+100

January 14, 7550.,+150

January 19, 7700.,+150

February 7, 8100.,+400

On February 7, 2021, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene by 400 yuan / ton, 8100 yuan / ton, and Qilu Petrochemical by 8050 yuan / ton.

Other enterprises: Dongming Petrochemical offers 8200 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical 8100 yuan / ton, Jincheng Petrochemical 8250 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical 8103 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical 8100 yuan / ton, Hongrun petrochemical 8450 yuan / ton.

Basically, after the festival, the prices of pure benzene and crude oil rose. Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene to 8100 yuan / ton. Although the crude oil price rebounded slightly near the weekend, the overall industrial chain is still upward. The price of hydrogenated benzene increased with pure benzene. At present, the mainstream ex factory price is 8100 yuan / ton. Crude oil rebounded slightly on the 9th, styrene prices continued to fall on the 10th, and pure benzene weakened slightly with styrene. Today, the mainstream price of domestic pure benzene is 8050-8450 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrogenated benzene also decreased slightly.

Trade name: formic acid

Latest price (February 9): 4566.67 yuan / ton

On February 9, the formic acid market was mainly stable, and the prices of some enterprises increased, up 0.74% compared with the previous trading day and 5.43% compared with the prices on January 9. Recently, the market of methanol, the main raw material, has been operating at a high level, with certain support on the cost side. After the festival, downstream enterprises have resumed work one after another, mainly in need of replenishment, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable.

It is expected that the formic acid market may be stable in the short term

1、 Toluene price summary:

The quotation of Shijiazhuang refining and chemical company is 6100 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical Company is 6100 yuan / ton,

Yangba offers 6250 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical offers 6300 yuan / ton,

Changling refinery offers 6350 yuan / ton,

Shandong Jingbo Petrochemical offers 7500 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, the number of active oil rigs in the United States this week was 497, an increase of 2 month on month and 198 year-on-year, according to the data released by Baker Hughes on the 4th. The market is worried that the severe cold weather in the United States may lead to the interruption of oil supply, adding to the geopolitical tension, and the international oil price continues to rise.

During the Spring Festival, the crude oil market rose broadly, driving the general rise of relevant commodities, and toluene followed the rise of crude oil. Sinopec raised prices in a wide range, the market actively followed the rise, and toluene welcomed the “good start”.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market continued to rise on January 27. The average market price in East China was 5424 yuan / ton, up 1.92% from the previous trading day and 42.57% year-on-year. PTA futures 2205 closed at 5496, up 164, or 3.08%.

In terms of supply, two sets of PTA units with a total of 5.3 million tons in East China announced the maintenance plan at the end of February, including 2 million tons of Yisheng Ningbo and 3.3 million tons / year of Yisheng new materials. In addition, the 3.3 million ton new capacity unit of Yisheng new materials phase II is planned to start commissioning on January 28, increasing supply and accumulating inventory. At present, the operating rate of PTA industry is around 86%.

Crude oil once again set a new high since October 2014. On January 26, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $87.35/barrel, up US $1.75 or 2.04%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $88.74/barrel, up US $1.66 or 1.90%. Brent crude oil contract in March rose above $90 for the first time since 2014. The main reason is that the supply tension is expected to continue to rise and boost oil prices, the tension between Russia and Ukraine is escalating, and the output increase of OPEC of the organization of petroleum exporting countries is lower than expected.

With the Spring Festival approaching, the downstream polyester construction will fall seasonally, and it is difficult for the demand side to boost the market. The terminal textile enterprises have successively shut down for holidays, the procurement of raw materials has obviously weakened, the actual transactions are rare, most factories have been shut down, and the comprehensive starting rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to about 13%. Polyester factory quotation remained stable, and individual specifications rose slightly.

Business analysts believe that crude oil continues to push up PTA, but maintenance at the end of the month coexists with investment in new production capacity, and there is still pressure on the supply side. In addition, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, demand is poor, and PTA prices are expected to continue to rise weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity data monitoring, the center of gravity of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus is downward. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 4066.67 yuan / ton on January 1 and 32250 yuan / ton on January 26. The price fell by 20.7% during the month.

2、 Market analysis

The price focus of domestic yellow phosphorus market is downward. After the new year’s Day holiday, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus has increased, the overall market is relatively cold, the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, and the transaction of yellow phosphorus market is weak and downward. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching the end of the market, with few new orders and sporadic replenishment. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 31000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 34000 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, as of January 26, 2022, the reference average price in the mainstream areas of 30% grade phosphate rock in China is around 700 yuan / ton. Compared with January 1 (the ex factory price of phosphate rock is 690 yuan / ton), the average price has increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 1.45%. At present, near the Spring Festival, the operating rate of domestic phosphorus ore mines is low, and the supply of phosphorus ore is still tight. Phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that on the eve of the Spring Festival, the domestic phosphorus ore market will be consolidated at a high level, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

In terms of coke, according to the price monitoring of business society, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shanxi increased by 2938 yuan / ton on January 26, an increase of 20.51% compared with January 1 (2438 yuan / ton of secondary metallurgical coke). At present, the on-site inventory is generally low. Downstream steel mills are also expected to increase their production restriction near the East Olympic Games. They purchase coke on demand, and there is still some demand for replenishment near the holidays. On the whole, in the recent environment of weak supply and demand, the coke market is expected to operate stably for the time being.

In terms of phosphoric acid, in January, the domestic phosphoric acid market was running downward. At the end of the month, the market price of phosphoric acid was temporarily stable, and the start-up of enterprises was stable. Some small factories may have holidays in advance. Near the Spring Festival, downstream factories shut down and have holidays one after another, and the replenishment of positions was basically over. Phosphoric acid enterprises often occur in the surrounding areas. According to the monitoring data of business society, the reference price of phosphoric acid was 9966.67 yuan / ton on January 26, down 13.08% compared with January 1 (11466.67 yuan / ton).

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of the business agency, on the whole, the price of yellow phosphorus fell sharply this month. The phosphoric acid market moves downward, the downstream market is more resistant to the high price of yellow phosphorus, and the overall market demand is poor. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and the market is basically stagnant. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be stabilized temporarily in the short term.

In 2021, the domestic aggregate MDI market rose and fell significantly, with a sharp overall shock. The price trend fluctuated significantly three times, and the mainstream curve showed a “W” trend. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI in East China remained at 18125 yuan / ton on January 1 and 20180 yuan / ton on December 31, with an overall increase of 11.34% in the whole year. The highest price point appeared in the middle of the first quarter, at 27750 yuan / ton on February 26, and the lowest price point appeared at 16775 yuan / ton on June 16, with the maximum amplitude of 39.55% in the whole year.

Specifically, the first sharp price rise and fall occurred in the middle of the first quarter. After the Lunar New Year of the ox, the domestic aggregate MDI market price rose sharply. The price rise lasted more than 10 days. Basically, the quotation remained for only half a day, and increased again on the same day. In March, the guiding prices of Wanhua and keschuang were lower than the market price at that time. For a time, the volume was obvious, and the market price fell. On February 19 after the festival, the market price of domestic polymerized MDI was 19300 yuan / ton. As of March 4, the market price of polymerized MDI was 25750 yuan / ton, an increase of 33.52%. The highest price in the cycle appeared on February 26, 27750 yuan / ton, with an amplitude of 43.78%. From March 1 to March 4, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI fell by 4.98%. Traders generally responded that “a single negotiation mode was opened, the profit margins were basically exhausted, the low-cost goods were sold out, and the price entered the rising track again”. The main reasons are in two aspects: on the one hand, it is the high support of the raw material pure benzene market, on the other hand, it is the shortage of goods for plant maintenance. The heavy bus unit is scheduled to be overhauled on February 27, with a duration of about one month; The technical transformation of Wanhua Yantai plant was successful, and the capacity was expanded to 1.1 million tons / year. Foreign devices: the market has learned that the storage and maintenance plan of Huntsman devices in the United States in the first quarter.

However, the good times did not last long. In March, the market fell sharply. The main reason for the sharp decline in the market in March is poor demand and insufficient power. In March, mainstream manufacturers held steady on the price of plug-in brands, and there was little information on the supply side throughout the month, which is of little significance to market guidance. Traders were able to maintain a high level at the beginning of the month, but there was strong resistance in the downstream, and there were few high-level real orders. Traders gradually changed their mentality and turned to low-cost volume and let the price ship. For a time, the price market was slightly chaotic. Near the end of the month, the prices of plug-in brands of most mainstream production enterprises decreased month on month, and the domestic aggregate MDI market fell into a downturn as a whole.

The second sharp rise and fall in prices occurred in the middle of the second quarter, mainly because the production enterprises controlled the volume of shipments. The supply of the supplier’s factory to the distributor has been reduced. In addition, the units of Shanghai huntsman and Shanghai BASF have been under maintenance, and the order arrangement is slow. Other factories have strict quantity control and less delivery. This period of rise and fall did not last long and the range was not very large.

The third sharp rise and fall in prices occurred at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter, the traditional peak season of “golden nine and silver ten”. The quotation of manufacturers should be significantly increased. The hurricane in the United States led to the temporary shutdown of foreign MDI devices, and the relative shortage of supply gave rise to the bullish sentiment of traders. However, the lower reaches slightly resisted the high price, the shipment of traders was not smooth, and the market entered a high consolidation period. Some suppliers’ factories store and repair plans in the later stage, and the supply of goods is tight; From September to October, the maintenance of devices in Europe and the Middle East was concentrated, the foreign supply was tightened, and most customers in downstream industries had low inventories. Under the premise of tight supply, the negotiated transaction price gradually pushed up, and the increase was obvious near the end of the month. However, after the National Day holiday, the downstream inquiry mood was not high, mainly digesting the early inventory, the shipment of traders was not smooth, and the aggregated MDI market continued to decline.

Towards the end of the year, the domestic aggregate MDI market rebounded slowly, and the weekly price of the factory continued to rise to maintain limited supply; Some suppliers’ factories deliver goods evenly, and the filling of spot goods is slow; Dealers have different attitudes. Mainstream dealers offer prices to maintain stability and negotiate shipment.

According to the previous monitoring chart of the aggregated MDI market by the business society, it can be seen that the domestic aggregated MDI market in the past five years was at the high level of the price market in the first quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter, with obvious ups and downs and a certain periodicity. Therefore, after the lunar new year in 2022, the aggregate MDI market is expected to go out of a new situation and open a high market. Throughout the year, the situation will continue according to the high level in the first quarter and the fourth quarter, and the situation sorted out in other periods of time.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell sharply this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market fell from 16833.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 13666.67 yuan / ton this weekend, down 3166.66 yuan / ton, or 18.81%. On the whole, isobutyraldehyde market fell sharply this week.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell sharply this week: the ex factory quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde this weekend was 13500 yuan / ton, which was 2500 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng isobutyraldehyde’s ex factory quotation this weekend is 14000 yuan / ton, which is 3300 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 13500 yuan / ton this weekend, down 3700 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde increased slightly this week. The quotation increased from 7886.80 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8192.60 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 3.88%, an increase of 9.43% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support was strengthened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the downstream industrial chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol increased slightly, and the quotation increased from 16520.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 16647.33 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.77%. Neopentyl glycol market rose first and then fell, and the downstream demand is general, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late January may decline slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly and the cost support increased, but there was a downward trend. The downstream neopentyl glycol market rose first and then fell, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market, the isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and decline slightly.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of cryolite in Henan decreased slightly this week. On January 21, the average market price in Henan was 7287.50 yuan / ton, a month on month decrease of 0.17% and a year-on-year increase of 21.97%.

quotations analysis

The domestic cryolite market was sorted out at a high level. During the week, the quotations of enterprises in Henan and Shandong were mainly stable, and individual enterprises decreased slightly according to their own shipments. At present, the supply of cost raw materials is basically stable, which has little impact on cryolite enterprises. Affected by the heating in northern winter, the manufacturer’s limited production and output are reduced, and the price continues to operate at a high level. The field operators hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. As of January 21, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 7000-7600 yuan / ton, and that in Henan is 6700-8700 yuan / ton.

The price trend of upstream soda ash decreased this week. As of January 21, the average market price was about 2187.50 yuan / ton, and the price decreased by 50 yuan / ton during the week, a decrease of 2.23%. This week, soda ash operated weakly, and soda ash manufacturers actively shipped near the Spring Festival, but the actual transaction was limited, the downstream demand was general, just needed to buy, and the market trading atmosphere was weak.

Downstream, the aluminum market fluctuated and rose. On January 21, the aluminum price was 21370.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.90% during the week compared with the price of 21180.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week. Near the Spring Festival, the cyclical accumulation effect before and after the festival tests the market tolerance. Recently, the aluminum price trend is good, the social destocking situation is OK, the supply and demand side is improved, and the aluminum price market is strong.

Future forecast

The domestic cryolite market operates at a high level, and the current situation of limited production of enterprises affected by heating in winter still exists. The downstream needs to purchase near the Spring Festival holiday. The on-site operators are waiting and watching. It is expected that the short-term cryolite trend will continue to operate stably temporarily, and pay attention to the downstream demand.