DOP prices fell sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, DOP prices fell sharply this week, and the high level of DOP market fell back. As of March 17, the DOP price was 12350 yuan / ton, down 4.82% from 12975 yuan / ton on March 11 last week; Compared with the DOP price of 11900 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of the month, an increase of 3.78%.

The price of isooctanol fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic isooctanol market fell from a high level this week. As of March 17, the price of isooctanol was 12733.33 yuan / ton, down 6.60% from 13633.33 yuan / ton on March 11 last week. Since the release of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the high price of isooctanol has fallen. This week, the price of isooctanol has fallen sharply, the cost of DOP has decreased, the upward momentum of DOP has weakened, and the downward pressure has increased.

Phthalic anhydride prices fell this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the high price of phthalic anhydride fell this week. As of March 17, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8925 yuan / ton, down 2.46% from 9150 yuan / ton on March 11 last week. The high price of phthalic anhydride fell this week, the cost of DOP raw materials decreased, the cost support weakened, and the downward pressure increased; The price of phthalic anhydride fell, the upward support of DOP weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Future expectations

DOP data analysts of business agency believe that with the easing of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of crude oil fell sharply, isooctanol and phthalic anhydride fell sharply, the price of DOP raw materials fell, the upward momentum of DOP weakened, and the downward pressure increased. In the future, the demand for plasticizer is adjusted weakly, the upward momentum of DOP is weakened, the downward pressure is increased, and the price of DOP is expected to fall.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of March 16, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 12116.67 yuan / ton, down 2.28% from last Wednesday (March 9), 0.41% from February 16, and 9.58% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

The market price of propylene oxide has fallen recently. Last Wednesday, the price of raw propylene was high, the cost support was obvious, the supply was mainly stable, the downstream demand was general, and the price operated strongly under the strong cost support. With the gradual decline of the price of raw propylene, the cost support was gradually weakened, the market supply was abundant, the demand side was cold, and the market price of epoxypropane was low, On the 16th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 11100-11300 yuan / ton.

For upstream propylene, on March 15, the reference price of propylene was 8544.17, up 1.31% compared with March 1 (8433.83).

Downstream propylene glycol, according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on March 15, the domestic propylene glycol market was mainly stable, and the average ex factory price of propylene glycol was 15233 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that of the previous working day.

The propylene oxide analyst of business agency believes that at present, the price of raw material propylene has fallen, the cost support has weakened, the supply side has more negative operation, the downstream demand performance is cold, and the market trading in some regions has been delayed and limited. It is expected that the propylene oxide market may be calm and wait-and-see in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1363 yuan / ton on March 7 and 1816 yuan / ton on March 15. The price of ammonium sulfate increased by 33.25%.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the price of ammonium sulfate has risen continuously, with an increase of 300-600 yuan / ton, and the market rebounded strongly. As the price of urea at home and abroad continues to rise, it is good for the market of ammonium sulfate. Downstream enterprises purchase intensively, the atmosphere in the venue heats up rapidly, and the industry is mostly bullish. At present, the supply of ammonium sulfate is tight. This week, the bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate enterprises increased significantly, and the internal grade ammonium sulfate also rose rapidly, but the downstream still has a mentality of resistance to the high price ammonium sulfate. As of March 15, the factory quotation of coking grade ammonium sulfate and mainstream ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1820 yuan / ton. The mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Hebei is about 1800 yuan / ton. Hexene grade ammonium sulfate, the factory quotation in Shandong is 1750-1850 yuan / ton.

Recently, due to the continuous rise of urea price, the resistance in the downstream of urea has been strengthened, and the rise of urea has driven the sharp rise of ammonium sulfate Market. At present, the supply of urea is sufficient, and urea will mainly rise slightly in the future. This week, the downstream compound fertilizer was put into operation at a high level. Due to the sharp rise of compound fertilizer raw materials, compound fertilizer enterprises mostly take a wait-and-see attitude. Most enterprises suspend collection and quotation. Under the pressure of cost, the short-term compound fertilizer market is mainly consolidated, waiting for the information guidance.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium sulfate analyst of the business agency believes that with the advent of spring ploughing and the peak season of domestic fertilizer use, dealers are actively taking goods. The bullish atmosphere in ammonium sulfate field is strong, and the demand side is waiting for continuous follow-up. The rise of urea is good for the market of ammonium sulfate. Ammonium sulfate is expected to continue the upward trend in the short term, but it is already at a high level and the rising space is limited. High level vibration operation is the main.

This week, the domestic propane market continued to rise, the power was insufficient, and the price fell significantly. Most of the Shandong market fell back below 7000 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 7163.25 yuan / ton on March 6 and 7438.25 yuan / ton on March 14. The decline rate in the week was 3.32%, an increase of 62.93% compared with the same period last year.

As of March 14, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

region . March 14th

East China . 6850-7350 yuan / ton

North China 6800-7200 yuan / ton

Shandong region . 6850-7000 yuan / ton

Northeast China . 6900-7000 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic propane Market as a whole showed a rising and falling trend. The decline of Shandong propane market was greater than the increase, and most of the prices fell back below 7000 yuan / ton. Driven by the rise of international crude oil in the early part of the week, Shandong propane market continued to rise, mainly upward. In the late part of the week, the international crude oil fell significantly, with a bad market mentality, coupled with the obvious resistance of the downstream to high prices, poor enthusiasm for entering the market, weak market trading atmosphere, blocked manufacturers’ shipments and obvious price drop.

Saudi Aramco announced in March 2022 that both propylene and butane increased. Propane was 895 dollars / ton, an increase of 120 dollars / ton over the previous month; Butane 920 US dollars / ton, up 145 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

On the whole, the current international crude oil continues to fluctuate, which brings limited support to the market. The lower reaches have limited ability to accept high prices, are cautious and wait-and-see, while the southern and northern markets are dominated by weakness. It is expected that the price of propane market may still fall in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3233 yuan / ton on March 7 and 3250 yuan / ton on March 11. The price of monoammonium phosphate rose by 0.52% this week.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 3645 yuan / ton on March 7 and 3645 yuan / ton on March 1. The price of diammonium phosphate was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

Monoammonium phosphate market continued the upward trend this week. As the price of raw materials continued to rise and the cost side continued to exert pressure, the quotation of monoammonium phosphate enterprises increased and the focus of transaction shifted upward. Most enterprises suspended or received a small amount of orders. In the short term, the price of raw materials may continue to rise, and monoammonium will continue to operate at a high level. At present, the mainstream factory quotation of 55 powder ammonium in Henan is about 3300 yuan / ton, the mainstream factory quotation of 55 powder ammonium in Anhui is about 3400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory quotation of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei is about 3200 yuan / ton. The actual transaction can be negotiated.

The market of diammonium phosphate was adjusted at a high level this week. At present, there is a large amount of diammonium to be sent and there are sufficient orders. With the rise of raw materials and the increase of cost pressure, most enterprises suspend quotation and order receiving, and mainly issue early orders. The fertilizer for spring ploughing is increased, and the downstream is purchased on demand. The order is received carefully. The factory quotation of 64% mainstream diammonium in Hubei is 3600-3650 yuan / ton, that of 64% mainstream diammonium in Yunnan is 3500-3600 yuan / ton, and that of North China is 3750-3850 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

The price of raw phosphate rock rose this week. At present, the reference average price in the mainstream areas of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is around 726 yuan / ton. With the arrival of spring ploughing and sowing season, the downstream of phosphate rock ushers in the peak demand season, the demand performance is good, the on-site trading atmosphere is active, the supply of phosphate rock is more tight, and the intention of mining enterprises to support the price is enhanced. On March 10, domestic mining enterprises in Guizhou and Guangxi raised the market price of medium and high-end phosphorus ore one after another. Among them, the 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou increased by 10-20 yuan / ton, and the low-end price in the field continued to decrease.

The price of raw sulfur continued to rise this week. On March 8, the price of sulfur in East China increased by 15.97% over a single day. At present, the sulfur market is operating at a high level, and individual domestic refineries follow up. The price adjustment range is generally 200-350 yuan / ton. The sulfur market is operating strongly. The reason for the sharp rise is mainly due to the high level of the port market. It is difficult to find the supply of goods in the port. The cargo holders are reluctant to sell, and have a strong intention to rise. The mentality of domestic refineries is positive. Coupled with the steady progress of the downstream phosphate fertilizer market, the price of solid-liquid sulfur runs at a high level.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium phosphate analyst of business society believes that at present, due to the rising trend of ammonium phosphate raw materials and the increasing pressure of enterprises, the manufacturers increase the price according to the trend. Downstream procurement is cautious, focusing on just demand. It is expected that in the short term, the price of Monoammonium will continue to rise steadily, and the price of diammonium will be adjusted and operated at a high level, mainly maintaining the ex factory price in the early stage. It is suggested to pay attention to the changes of raw material market.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou decreased. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 39333.33 yuan / ton last Thursday and 36250 yuan / ton this Thursday. The price decreased by 7.84% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Yellow phosphorus prices fell this week. The focus of the overall market is downward, and the manufacturer mainly sends early orders. The lower reaches are more resistant to the high price of yellow phosphorus, the transaction of new orders is limited, the wait-and-see mood is strong, the inquiry is general, the demand is just the main, and you can take it with you. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus is about 34000-36500 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, as of March 10, 2022, the reference average price in the mainstream areas of 30% grade phosphate rock in China is around 726 yuan / ton. Compared with March 1 (the ex factory price of phosphate rock is 710 yuan / ton), the average price has increased by 16 yuan / ton, or 2.35%. As the traditional peak season is approaching, the demand for phosphate fertilizer and other fertilizers downstream of phosphate rock terminal will further increase, and the downstream demand support and supply side will continue to be tight. The phosphate ore data division of business society believes that in the short term, China’s domestic phosphate ore market will continue to be dominated by high-level and strong operation.

In terms of coke, on March 10, the coke market of Shandong Port operated stably, medium and strong, and the price rose slightly. At present, the ex warehouse price of mainstream spot exchange of quasi primary coke in the port is 3500-3550 yuan / ton, with little change in inventory. The inquiry in the port market is good, the market mentality is strengthened, and the mentality of reluctant to sell is strengthened. Hebei Xingtai coke market price, the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 3280 yuan / ton, 400 yuan / ton higher than last month. As for the market price of Baotou coke, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke was 3100 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day and 400 yuan / ton higher than the same period last month. Ordos coke market price, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke was 2960 yuan / ton, flat compared with the previous trading day, up 400 yuan / ton compared with the same period last month.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid rose first and then fell this week. At present, the price of raw materials has been lowered, the cost support has been gradually weakened, the downstream just needs to take goods, and the sporadic high-end prices have fallen. It is expected that the phosphoric acid will be weak in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the price of yellow phosphorus fell this week, the downstream was more resistant to the high price of yellow phosphorus, was cautious in receiving orders, and the overall market demand weakened. The price of upstream phosphate rock increased slightly, the coke market operated stably, moderately and strongly, and the cost support was acceptable. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be mainly weak in the short term, and the downward range is limited.

In March (3.1-3.9), the CIS polybutadiene rubber market fell first and then rose. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of March 9, the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber in China was 13820 yuan / ton, up 1.02% from 13680 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the low point since March was 13540 yuan / ton.

In March, the ex factory price of polybutadiene rubber of domestic enterprises decreased first and then increased. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of March 9, the ex warehouse price of Daqing Shunding of Sinopec North China sales company was 13600 yuan / ton. On the one hand, after the festival, the downstream rework was slow, the demand side was weak, and the price of Shunding fell; On the other hand, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensified, the international crude oil price rose sharply, and the cost support strengthened. After the price of raw butadiene continued to rise, the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber rebounded.

Since March, the start-up of domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant has increased compared with the previous period, and the supply is mainly loose.

Since March, the price of butadiene has continued to rise sharply and the cost side has risen. According to the monitoring of business society, as of March 9, the price of butadiene was 9061 yuan / ton, up 8.32% from 8365 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In March, the natural rubber market rose slightly. According to the monitoring of business society, as of March 9, the price of natural rubber was 13480 yuan / ton, up 3.22% from 13060 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The price comparison chart of butadiene butadiene butadiene rubber and natural rubber butadiene rubber shows that the current butadiene rubber industry chain is mainly affected by the cost pressure of raw butadiene.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the price of raw materials has rebounded sharply, supported by the cost side. In addition, after the two sessions and the winter Paralympic Games, the downstream construction may increase significantly, and the demand side support is expected to increase. It is expected that the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber will be dominated in the later stage.

On March 7, the price of international crude oil futures rose sharply, reaching a maximum of $139 in Brent crude oil, the highest level since 2008. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $119.4/barrel, up US $3.72 or 3.2%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $123.21/barrel, up US $5.1 or 4.3%. The situation in Russia and Ukraine has further deteriorated, and the market is generally pessimistic about its third round of negotiations. The United States and the European Union consider banning the import of crude oil from Russia. At the same time, Iran’s oil is unlikely to return to the international market in the short term, and the supply interruption is expected to continue to push up the oil price.

As of the 7th, the third round of Russia Ukraine negotiations held in Belarus has ended. According to relevant media reports, the negotiations between the two sides have not achieved the expected results. The situation in Russia and Ukraine is still changing rapidly, and the prospect is full of great uncertainty, which also greatly magnifies the expectation of interruption of crude oil supply.

More importantly, the US and EU sanctions against Russia are still escalated. U.S. Secretary of state Blinken said recently that the United States is working with the European Union to study the possibility of prohibiting the import of Russian oil. Prior to this, the United States and its European allies imposed a series of sanctions on Russia. Although they also sacrificed the trump card of “swift” financial sanctions, they did not prohibit oil and gas transactions with Russia. The news further spread the panic caused by the market. The oil market shook on Monday. During the Asian trading session, the price of Brent crude oil futures in London once hit a high of US $139.13/barrel.

Judging from the current market reaction, the sanctions have had a real impact on the crude oil supply side. At present, Russia’s energy supply has begun to decline. Under the panic, some buyers dare not sell, the freight rates rise sharply, and it is difficult to find oil ships, which also brings difficulties to buyers. The current situation leads to a large discount on ural crude oil. According to statistics, the daily supply of crude oil in Russia is about 10 million barrels, of which the export volume is about 4-5 million barrels / day, and the daily export of refined oil is nearly 3 million barrels / day. If the sanctions further rise to the energy embargo, it will have a serious impact on the global oil supply.

Crude oil analysts of business news agency believe that the current situation in Russia and Ukraine is still a key factor affecting oil prices. Changes in the situation and the escalation of sanctions will exacerbate the volatility of oil prices. Although the current market supply expectation is pessimistic, the oil producing country OPEC + has stated that it will not increase additional production. Although the Iranian nuclear negotiations have made progress, the return of Iranian oil to the international market will not happen overnight, and the supply expectation will form a strong support for oil prices. However, at present, the response of oil prices has gradually deviated from the fundamentals, and the risk premium has risen sharply. At the same time, soaring oil prices bring high costs, which will seriously harm future demand and further lead to the fragility of the industrial chain. The market should beware of the arrival of vicious market.

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether Market showed a continuous upward trend, with an obvious increase during the week, and the price focus of Henan market rose. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3790.00 yuan / ton on February 28 and 4253.33 yuan / ton on March 7. The increase rate in the week was 12.23%, up 12.32% compared with February 1.

As of March 7, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

region . Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi region . 4440 yuan / ton

Hebei region . 4500 yuan / ton

Henan region . 4380-4400 yuan / ton

In March, the domestic dimethyl ether Market was favorable and sufficient, and all regions were the main players of the above. The main production areas in Henan increased significantly, and the price rose to 4400 yuan / ton. The market of raw methanol rose. The quotations of the main production enterprises in the main production areas were raised as scheduled, but some traders were cautious. With the sharp rise of the futures disk, the methanol spot market began to catch up, and the market price continued to jump. In addition, the civil market of liquefied gas is driven by the sharp rise of international crude oil, and the price has risen one after another. The enthusiasm for entering the market in the downstream buying up mentality is OK, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth as a whole, and there is no obvious pressure on the inventory. Shandong and Hebei also followed the rise.

On March 7, the methanol market in Henan rose sharply. The bidding and sales transaction of Henan energy is accepted at the factory of 3030-3045 yuan / ton, the quotation of other enterprises is stable, and the ex factory reference is 3000 yuan / ton; Luoyang market offer refers to the spot exchange of 3000 yuan / ton. The reference price of methanol in southern Shandong is around 3100 yuan / ton, and the factory provides cash exchange. The reference price of local goods received by Linyi is around 3100 yuan / ton and sent to cash exchange. The price of logistics goods is low. The methanol market in Dongying, Shandong Province increased to 3040-3060 yuan / ton through negotiation and sent to spot exchange. The transaction of methanol market in central Shandong rose to 3060-3070 yuan / ton and sent to cash exchange. The quotation of local methanol factory in central Shandong rose to 3100 yuan / ton, and the factory offered cash exchange. The transaction is OK. Purchase more carefully.

At present, the market price of raw material methanol is strong, the civil market price of liquefied gas rises sharply, there are sufficient favorable factors in the market, the domestic dimethyl ether Market is actively rising, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is OK, the market trading atmosphere is mild, the manufacturer’s inventory is controllable, and the mentality is strong. It is expected that the price of dimethyl ether market may rise steadily in the short term.

DOTP prices fluctuated and rose this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of DOTP fluctuated and rose this week, and the overall DOTP market rose. The price of DOTP rose by 12550 yuan / ton at the end of last month, up from 12550 yuan / ton at the end of last month. DOTP market rose sharply.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic isooctanol price fluctuated and rose this week, the crude oil price rose sharply this week, the chemical sector followed, and the isooctanol price fluctuated and rose. As of March 4, the price of isooctanol was 12966.67 yuan / ton, up 5.42% from 12300 yuan / ton on February 25 last weekend. The price of isooctanol rises sharply, the cost of DOTP rises, and the rising power of DOTP is large.

PTA prices stopped falling and rebounded

According to the price monitoring of business society, PTA prices stopped falling and rebounded this week, and PTA prices rose sharply. PTA prices rose by 6.80% this week. Conflicts broke out between Russia and Ukraine, crude oil prices rose sharply, and PTA prices rose. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has impacted the global energy market, stimulated the soaring price of crude oil, jointly reduced the burden and pressure of domestic PTA manufacturers, gradually warmed up the downstream polyester market and terminal loom industry, and the demand side has improved. It is expected that the PTA market will rise in the future, the cost of DOTP will rise, and there will be more negative and positive DOTP.

PVC market fluctuated and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of PVC fluctuated and rose this week, and the PVC market rose. As of March 4, the price of PVC was 8750 yuan / ton, up 290 yuan / ton or 3.43% from 8460 yuan / ton on February 25 last weekend. The price of PVC rose this week, and the rigid demand for PVC increased; DOTP market is more favorable.

Future expectations

DOTP data analysts believe that with the intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the prices of DOTP raw materials isooctanol and PTA rose this week; Raw material prices rose and downstream demand picked up. In the future, the upward momentum of DOTP increases and the downward pressure decreases. It is expected that the price of DOTP will rise strongly in the future.