1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou decreased. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 39333.33 yuan / ton last Thursday and 36250 yuan / ton this Thursday. The price decreased by 7.84% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Yellow phosphorus prices fell this week. The focus of the overall market is downward, and the manufacturer mainly sends early orders. The lower reaches are more resistant to the high price of yellow phosphorus, the transaction of new orders is limited, the wait-and-see mood is strong, the inquiry is general, the demand is just the main, and you can take it with you. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus is about 34000-36500 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, as of March 10, 2022, the reference average price in the mainstream areas of 30% grade phosphate rock in China is around 726 yuan / ton. Compared with March 1 (the ex factory price of phosphate rock is 710 yuan / ton), the average price has increased by 16 yuan / ton, or 2.35%. As the traditional peak season is approaching, the demand for phosphate fertilizer and other fertilizers downstream of phosphate rock terminal will further increase, and the downstream demand support and supply side will continue to be tight. The phosphate ore data division of business society believes that in the short term, China’s domestic phosphate ore market will continue to be dominated by high-level and strong operation.

In terms of coke, on March 10, the coke market of Shandong Port operated stably, medium and strong, and the price rose slightly. At present, the ex warehouse price of mainstream spot exchange of quasi primary coke in the port is 3500-3550 yuan / ton, with little change in inventory. The inquiry in the port market is good, the market mentality is strengthened, and the mentality of reluctant to sell is strengthened. Hebei Xingtai coke market price, the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 3280 yuan / ton, 400 yuan / ton higher than last month. As for the market price of Baotou coke, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke was 3100 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day and 400 yuan / ton higher than the same period last month. Ordos coke market price, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke was 2960 yuan / ton, flat compared with the previous trading day, up 400 yuan / ton compared with the same period last month.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid rose first and then fell this week. At present, the price of raw materials has been lowered, the cost support has been gradually weakened, the downstream just needs to take goods, and the sporadic high-end prices have fallen. It is expected that the phosphoric acid will be weak in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the price of yellow phosphorus fell this week, the downstream was more resistant to the high price of yellow phosphorus, was cautious in receiving orders, and the overall market demand weakened. The price of upstream phosphate rock increased slightly, the coke market operated stably, moderately and strongly, and the cost support was acceptable. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be mainly weak in the short term, and the downward range is limited.

In March (3.1-3.9), the CIS polybutadiene rubber market fell first and then rose. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of March 9, the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber in China was 13820 yuan / ton, up 1.02% from 13680 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the low point since March was 13540 yuan / ton.

In March, the ex factory price of polybutadiene rubber of domestic enterprises decreased first and then increased. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of March 9, the ex warehouse price of Daqing Shunding of Sinopec North China sales company was 13600 yuan / ton. On the one hand, after the festival, the downstream rework was slow, the demand side was weak, and the price of Shunding fell; On the other hand, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensified, the international crude oil price rose sharply, and the cost support strengthened. After the price of raw butadiene continued to rise, the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber rebounded.

Since March, the start-up of domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant has increased compared with the previous period, and the supply is mainly loose.

Since March, the price of butadiene has continued to rise sharply and the cost side has risen. According to the monitoring of business society, as of March 9, the price of butadiene was 9061 yuan / ton, up 8.32% from 8365 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In March, the natural rubber market rose slightly. According to the monitoring of business society, as of March 9, the price of natural rubber was 13480 yuan / ton, up 3.22% from 13060 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The price comparison chart of butadiene butadiene butadiene rubber and natural rubber butadiene rubber shows that the current butadiene rubber industry chain is mainly affected by the cost pressure of raw butadiene.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the price of raw materials has rebounded sharply, supported by the cost side. In addition, after the two sessions and the winter Paralympic Games, the downstream construction may increase significantly, and the demand side support is expected to increase. It is expected that the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber will be dominated in the later stage.

On March 7, the price of international crude oil futures rose sharply, reaching a maximum of $139 in Brent crude oil, the highest level since 2008. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $119.4/barrel, up US $3.72 or 3.2%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $123.21/barrel, up US $5.1 or 4.3%. The situation in Russia and Ukraine has further deteriorated, and the market is generally pessimistic about its third round of negotiations. The United States and the European Union consider banning the import of crude oil from Russia. At the same time, Iran’s oil is unlikely to return to the international market in the short term, and the supply interruption is expected to continue to push up the oil price.

As of the 7th, the third round of Russia Ukraine negotiations held in Belarus has ended. According to relevant media reports, the negotiations between the two sides have not achieved the expected results. The situation in Russia and Ukraine is still changing rapidly, and the prospect is full of great uncertainty, which also greatly magnifies the expectation of interruption of crude oil supply.

More importantly, the US and EU sanctions against Russia are still escalated. U.S. Secretary of state Blinken said recently that the United States is working with the European Union to study the possibility of prohibiting the import of Russian oil. Prior to this, the United States and its European allies imposed a series of sanctions on Russia. Although they also sacrificed the trump card of “swift” financial sanctions, they did not prohibit oil and gas transactions with Russia. The news further spread the panic caused by the market. The oil market shook on Monday. During the Asian trading session, the price of Brent crude oil futures in London once hit a high of US $139.13/barrel.

Judging from the current market reaction, the sanctions have had a real impact on the crude oil supply side. At present, Russia’s energy supply has begun to decline. Under the panic, some buyers dare not sell, the freight rates rise sharply, and it is difficult to find oil ships, which also brings difficulties to buyers. The current situation leads to a large discount on ural crude oil. According to statistics, the daily supply of crude oil in Russia is about 10 million barrels, of which the export volume is about 4-5 million barrels / day, and the daily export of refined oil is nearly 3 million barrels / day. If the sanctions further rise to the energy embargo, it will have a serious impact on the global oil supply.

Crude oil analysts of business news agency believe that the current situation in Russia and Ukraine is still a key factor affecting oil prices. Changes in the situation and the escalation of sanctions will exacerbate the volatility of oil prices. Although the current market supply expectation is pessimistic, the oil producing country OPEC + has stated that it will not increase additional production. Although the Iranian nuclear negotiations have made progress, the return of Iranian oil to the international market will not happen overnight, and the supply expectation will form a strong support for oil prices. However, at present, the response of oil prices has gradually deviated from the fundamentals, and the risk premium has risen sharply. At the same time, soaring oil prices bring high costs, which will seriously harm future demand and further lead to the fragility of the industrial chain. The market should beware of the arrival of vicious market.

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether Market showed a continuous upward trend, with an obvious increase during the week, and the price focus of Henan market rose. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3790.00 yuan / ton on February 28 and 4253.33 yuan / ton on March 7. The increase rate in the week was 12.23%, up 12.32% compared with February 1.

As of March 7, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

region . Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi region . 4440 yuan / ton

Hebei region . 4500 yuan / ton

Henan region . 4380-4400 yuan / ton

In March, the domestic dimethyl ether Market was favorable and sufficient, and all regions were the main players of the above. The main production areas in Henan increased significantly, and the price rose to 4400 yuan / ton. The market of raw methanol rose. The quotations of the main production enterprises in the main production areas were raised as scheduled, but some traders were cautious. With the sharp rise of the futures disk, the methanol spot market began to catch up, and the market price continued to jump. In addition, the civil market of liquefied gas is driven by the sharp rise of international crude oil, and the price has risen one after another. The enthusiasm for entering the market in the downstream buying up mentality is OK, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth as a whole, and there is no obvious pressure on the inventory. Shandong and Hebei also followed the rise.

On March 7, the methanol market in Henan rose sharply. The bidding and sales transaction of Henan energy is accepted at the factory of 3030-3045 yuan / ton, the quotation of other enterprises is stable, and the ex factory reference is 3000 yuan / ton; Luoyang market offer refers to the spot exchange of 3000 yuan / ton. The reference price of methanol in southern Shandong is around 3100 yuan / ton, and the factory provides cash exchange. The reference price of local goods received by Linyi is around 3100 yuan / ton and sent to cash exchange. The price of logistics goods is low. The methanol market in Dongying, Shandong Province increased to 3040-3060 yuan / ton through negotiation and sent to spot exchange. The transaction of methanol market in central Shandong rose to 3060-3070 yuan / ton and sent to cash exchange. The quotation of local methanol factory in central Shandong rose to 3100 yuan / ton, and the factory offered cash exchange. The transaction is OK. Purchase more carefully.

At present, the market price of raw material methanol is strong, the civil market price of liquefied gas rises sharply, there are sufficient favorable factors in the market, the domestic dimethyl ether Market is actively rising, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is OK, the market trading atmosphere is mild, the manufacturer’s inventory is controllable, and the mentality is strong. It is expected that the price of dimethyl ether market may rise steadily in the short term.

DOTP prices fluctuated and rose this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of DOTP fluctuated and rose this week, and the overall DOTP market rose. The price of DOTP rose by 12550 yuan / ton at the end of last month, up from 12550 yuan / ton at the end of last month. DOTP market rose sharply.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic isooctanol price fluctuated and rose this week, the crude oil price rose sharply this week, the chemical sector followed, and the isooctanol price fluctuated and rose. As of March 4, the price of isooctanol was 12966.67 yuan / ton, up 5.42% from 12300 yuan / ton on February 25 last weekend. The price of isooctanol rises sharply, the cost of DOTP rises, and the rising power of DOTP is large.

PTA prices stopped falling and rebounded

According to the price monitoring of business society, PTA prices stopped falling and rebounded this week, and PTA prices rose sharply. PTA prices rose by 6.80% this week. Conflicts broke out between Russia and Ukraine, crude oil prices rose sharply, and PTA prices rose. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has impacted the global energy market, stimulated the soaring price of crude oil, jointly reduced the burden and pressure of domestic PTA manufacturers, gradually warmed up the downstream polyester market and terminal loom industry, and the demand side has improved. It is expected that the PTA market will rise in the future, the cost of DOTP will rise, and there will be more negative and positive DOTP.

PVC market fluctuated and rose this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of PVC fluctuated and rose this week, and the PVC market rose. As of March 4, the price of PVC was 8750 yuan / ton, up 290 yuan / ton or 3.43% from 8460 yuan / ton on February 25 last weekend. The price of PVC rose this week, and the rigid demand for PVC increased; DOTP market is more favorable.

Future expectations

DOTP data analysts believe that with the intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the prices of DOTP raw materials isooctanol and PTA rose this week; Raw material prices rose and downstream demand picked up. In the future, the upward momentum of DOTP increases and the downward pressure decreases. It is expected that the price of DOTP will rise strongly in the future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene rose this week. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the week was 1256.25 US dollars / ton, and the average price of ethylene at the weekend was 1310.25 US dollars / ton, up 4.30%. The current price rose 6.39% month on month, and the current price rose 13.98% year-on-year.

This week, the external ethylene market generally showed an upward trend. Ethylene market prices in Asia rose. As of the 2nd, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1246-1256 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1246-1256 / ton. European ethylene market prices fell sharply. As of the 2nd, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1459-1467 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1270-1278 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States fluctuated slightly. As of the 2nd, the price was 816-834 yuan / ton. The external ethylene market rose sharply this week, which was mainly affected by the sharp rise of upstream crude oil. The price rise was gratifying, and the rise of ethylene in Europe and Asia was relatively large.

International: on March 2, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise sharply. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil both rose above the US $110 mark, and the settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $110.60/barrel, up US $7.19 or 7.0%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $112.93/barrel, up US $7.96 or 7.6%. Oil prices continued to rise amid the spread of war in Ukraine. The market is expected that the sanctions imposed on Russia may lead to a large withdrawal of oil assets, and the shortage of crude oil supply is expected to further increase in the coming months.

Recently, the market price of styrene fluctuated and rose. International crude oil rose sharply, pure benzene also increased greatly, and the cost side gave strong support to styrene. At present, on the inventory side, the market supply is still abundant, the downstream is expected to maintain rigid demand, and the supply and demand side continues to be deadlocked. Styrene is likely to follow the trend of crude oil.

Analysts expect that the price of crude oil will rise strongly, so analysts from the foreign news agency expect that the price of ethylene will rise strongly.

In February, the epoxy resin market showed a trend of first rising and then falling, and the double raw materials after the middle of the month showed a downward trend. The decline was obvious. The epoxy resin market was greatly affected by raw materials, and also showed a trend of rising and falling sharply in February. Near the end of the month, the market performance was low, and the on-site negotiations were cold. According to the monitoring data of the business society, the market offer of liquid epoxy resin in East China was 27200 yuan / ton on February 7, rose to 29200 yuan / ton on February 15, and the market offer at the end of the month was 27200-27500 yuan / ton. The decline was difficult to stop in March, and the market fell to 26000-27000 yuan / ton as of the press release.

One week after the commencement of the festival, the epoxy resin market negotiation was cold, mainly due to the decline of dual raw materials, the continuous decline of East China auction, the starting price of the on-site auction on the 21st fell to 16000 yuan / ton, and the market continued to fall to 17200 yuan / ton. The upstream and downstream of the short-term industrial chain were mainly bad, but the supply side was tight, and it is expected to operate stably in the short term.

In February, epichlorohydrin market rose first and then fell. After the festival, the price of raw material propylene rose, the glycerol market operated strongly, the cost support increased, the manufacturers had no pressure, the downstream terminals resumed work one after another, the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement increased, the market mentality improved, and the market price of epichlorohydrin increased. As the downstream just needs replenishment after the festival, the enthusiasm of market inquiry and procurement is weakened, the consumption is about long and the inventory is dominated, the mentality of cargo holders is under pressure, the price of epichlorohydrin is lower, the downstream demand is not followed up in the latter ten days, the market trading atmosphere is light, and the market is weak.

In terms of equipment, the overall operating rate of liquid resin is about 75%; The operating rate of solid resin is about 40%. Nantong Xingchen 150000 T / a unit was shut down for maintenance, and the operating rate of the industry declined.

From the perspective of business society, dual raw materials are down, and it is difficult to stop the downward trend under the downturn of demand. It is expected to weaken in the short term, adjust the operation, and pay attention to the upstream and downstream products of the industrial chain.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the TDI price in East China rose first and then fell in February. At the beginning of the month, the average price of TDI market was 18475 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of TDI was 19225 yuan / ton. It was increased by 750 yuan / ton within the month, with an overall increase of 4.06%. As of February 28, the reference value of domestic goods with tickets is around 18600-18700 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with tickets is around 18700-18900 yuan / ton.

As of February 28, the operation of domestic TDI plants is as follows:

The TDI market was strong in February, and the price rose first and then fell in the month. In the first half of the month, the market was still in a state of rapid rise before the festival. The on-site spot supply was tight, and major manufacturers successively raised the guidance price. The holders had a strong attitude of supporting the price, and the distribution market kept up with the rise. Although the market supply is still tight in the second half of the month, the downstream demand is less than expected, and the acceptance of high prices is not high. In addition, the export orders of the terminal industry are weakened, the downstream market entry is dominated by rigid demand, the offer of cargo holders is loose in a narrow range, and the TDI market is weak.

The upstream toluene market fluctuated upward. As of February 28, the price rose to 7363 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 21.62% over the price at the beginning of the month. After the Spring Festival, driven by the rise of the gasoline industry, toluene had a good start. However, the downstream industry resumed work slowly, the market demand was limited, and the price of toluene fell. In late February, the tension between Russia and Ukraine escalated, the short-term rise of crude oil was obvious, and toluene rose again.

According to the analysis of TDI data division of business society, the supply of TDI is favorable to the market, but the downstream demand is difficult to promote the continuous rise of prices. From the perspective of supply and demand performance, the short-term TDI market is weak. In terms of digesting the inventory situation in the later stage and the commencement of large factories, the post market situation is mainly stalemate and consolidation, and the specific follow-up situation in the downstream is concerned.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of February 28, the comprehensive price of PC market was 22050.00 yuan / ton. The price of PC this month was mainly stable. Compared with the same period last month, the price had not changed. The negotiation atmosphere was general, the downstream just needed to purchase, and the overall market operated stably and weakly.

In the first ten days of February, the overall domestic PC market mainly operated stably, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, lack of demand follow-up, strong wait-and-see atmosphere and general favorable support. The mainstream price is about 22000 yuan / ton, and the overall quotation is stable. At present, the supply side is normal, the logistics is smooth, the unit operating rate is positive, and the manufacturer’s willingness to ship is positive.

Upstream bisphenol A: the market is weak, the reference price is 18400-18500 yuan / ton, the focus of negotiation is low, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the transaction market is cold. On January 6, the bisphenol a commodity index was 173.13, unchanged from yesterday, down 38.86% from the highest point of 283.19 in the cycle (2021-04-16), and up 140.16% from the lowest point of 72.09 on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from March 1, 2020 to now).

In mid February, the overall domestic PC market was dominated by strong operation, the price rose slightly, the wait-and-see atmosphere remained, the favorable support was general, the mainstream price was about 22150 yuan / ton, the overall market quotation rose narrowly, the supply side was normal, the operating rate was normal, the logistics was smooth, and the manufacturer’s willingness to ship was positive.

Upstream bisphenol A: around 17900-18100 yuan / ton, the overall market has warmed up, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the follow-up atmosphere is general.

The rubber and plastic commodity index rose 45.55 points from the lowest point of 10603-13 in 2020, down from the highest point of 760.08-14 in 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

In late February, the overall domestic PC market was dominated by strong operation, with strong wait-and-see atmosphere, lack of demand follow-up, strong wait-and-see atmosphere and general favorable support. The mainstream price was about 22150 yuan / ton, and the overall quotation was stable. At present, the supply side is normal, the logistics is smooth, the unit operating rate is normal, and the manufacturer’s willingness to ship goods is positive.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: on February 27, the rubber and plastic index was 773 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 27.08% from the highest point 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 46.40% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

According to the PC analyst of business society, the PC market is expected to run smoothly in March.

On the 25th, aluminum prices operated smoothly

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on February 25 was 22830 yuan / ton, up 0.54% per day, up 5.73% from the average market price of 21593.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (2.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton in early January (January 1), it increased by 12.08%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 5.82% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 22.13% recently.

List of upstream and downstream inventory data

Raw material side: on February 25, China’s alumina port inventory totaled 398000 tons, down 20000 tons from last week. Including 60000 tons in Qingdao port, 220000 tons in Bayuquan, 72000 tons in Panjin Port, 38000 tons in Jinzhou port, 8000 tons in Qinzhou port, and no spot inventory in Lianyungang, Fangcheng port, Rizhao Port, Longkou port and Caofeidian.

As of the 24th, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in the mainstream market was 1118000 tons, and 15000 tons were accumulated in the week. In terms of inventory in the plant area, it has decreased on the whole, and it is in the state of de stocking on the whole within the week. At present, the manufacturer’s shipment pressure is relatively small.

market conditions

In the downstream market, at present, the price of aluminum ingots is relatively high, and there is little willingness to hoard goods in the downstream. In terms of outbound volume, except for a small month on month increase in Chongqing this week, Wuxi’s outbound volume decreased due to epidemic factors; The outbound volume in Foshan, Changzhou and Gongyi areas decreased; The ex warehouse volume in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin and Shenyang changed little month on month.

Future judgment

At present, the aluminum price is close to 23000 points again. At present, the impact of the Russian Ukrainian situation on the price of non-ferrous aluminum is released in advance in the early stage, and the recent response is flat. It is rumored that Western sanctions will not affect Russian aluminum exports; However, the approval process of beixi-2 has stalled, and the European energy problem is difficult to solve in the short term, which supports the high operation of overseas aluminum prices. Domestically, due to the epidemic situation in Baise, the domestic production capacity is expected to decline by about 0.44% in February compared with that in January. In the short term, aluminum prices will remain high.