1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency: on January 6, the average price of domestic LNG was 4993.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 283 yuan / ton compared with 4710 yuan / ton before New Year’s day, an increase of 6.02% during the cycle and a decrease of 6.96% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

After the new year’s Day holiday, the domestic LNG price continued to rise, rising nearly 7% for three days, and the focus shifted upward. At the end of the new year’s Day holiday, the logistics recovered, the shipping atmosphere of the liquid plant was good, the liquid level decreased, the supply of imported gas decreased, and the price increased continuously, which boosted the rising atmosphere of domestic liquid plants. The daily rise rate on the first working day after the Festival was 0.78%, and the prices in some regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Henan rose. On the 5th, the trading and trading of the property market was actively repaired, and the liquid plants with low prices also rose, with the daily increase of domestic liquid prices of 1.33%. On the 6th, the increase expanded, Shaanxi increased by 300 yuan / ton, and other regions also actively followed the increase. At the same time, due to the improvement of trading in recent days, the inventory pressure of liquid plant was reduced, so that the price was pushed up. The auction of Northwest gas source ended in the second week of January, and the transaction price was 2.93-2.97 yuan / m3, up 0.05 yuan / m3 compared with the low-end and 0.08 yuan / m3 compared with the high-end of the previous cycle. The trading volume is 21 million cubic meters. At present, 4720-5100 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 4910-5070 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 4850-5250 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 4770-4950 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 5170-5500 yuan / ton in Hebei and 5200-5700 yuan / ton in Henan. The price of inlet gas is about 5050-6900 yuan / ton.

According to the weekly increase and decrease from October 11, 2021 to January 2, 2022, the domestic liquefied natural gas cycle showed mixed gains and losses, with an increase of 17.75% on October 11 and a decrease of 15.97% on December 6, and then began to rise continuously.

region Specifications January 6th December 31st Rise and fall

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 4720-5100 4650-4950 + 70/+150

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 4910-5070 4350-5050 + 560/+50

Shanxi liquified natural gas 4850-5250 4600-5200 -+ 250/+50

Ningxia liquified natural gas 4770-4950 4730-4780 + 40/+170

Henan liquified natural gas 5200-5700 4950-5350 + 250/+350

Hebei liquified natural gas 5170-5500 4950-5100 + 220/+400

Downstream products fell more or rose less:

Methanol, the negotiation range of methanol market in Dongying, Shandong Province on January 6 was 2330-2350 yuan / ton, which was delivered to cash exchange. The transaction was general, but most of them were cautious about the short-term future market. Most of the transactions in the methanol market in central Shandong are delivered to cash exchange at 2360-2380 yuan / ton. The quotation of the local methanol factory in central Shandong is stable to 2550 yuan / ton, and the factory provides cash exchange. The market is bullish. The offer price of methanol in southern Shandong is 2480 yuan / ton. The factory provides cash exchange nearby. Linyi receives the local offer price of about 2480 yuan / ton and sends it to cash exchange. The logistics offer is limited. The downstream receiving is cautious and the market negotiation is general.

Liquid ammonia, on the 6th, the market of liquid ammonia in Shandong stabilized. Today, the manufacturer’s quotation is generally stable, the manufacturer ships normally, and the inventory pressure is relieved. At present, the market demand is acceptable, the dealer’s offer price has little change compared with that before the festival, the downstream procurement is normal, and the market inventory continues to go. Today, the mainstream price in the region is 4000-4200 yuan / ton. The market is expected to operate steadily in the near future.

Urea, the domestic urea market rose on January 6, the prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas were adjusted at a low level recently, and the cost support was weakened. From the perspective of demand: the promotion of agricultural demand is accelerated, and industrial demand is mainly wait-and-see. Agricultural fertilizer preparation began to increase in some areas, and the winter storage of chemical fertilizer is expected to accelerate. The market price of melamine was adjusted at a low level, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation was weakened. In terms of supply, some gas head enterprises stopped production for maintenance, and the daily output of urea decreased slightly. On the whole, urea cost support weakened, downstream demand increased, urea supply was insufficient, and urea rose slightly in the future.

3、 Future forecast

The LNG analyst of business agency believes that after the new year’s day, the market trading atmosphere has improved, the inventory pressure of the liquid plant has been reduced, and a new round of Northwest feed gas price rise has improved the overnight liquid market. It is expected that the price will continue to rise in the short term.

The price of acetic anhydride fell still in December

According to the monitoring data of business society, the decline of acetic anhydride price slowed down in December. As of December 31, the price of acetic anhydride was 10350 yuan / ton, down 10.20% from 11525 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The acetic anhydride market remained weak in December, and the price of acetic anhydride continued to fall.

The price of raw material acetic acid fell

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in business society, the price of acetic acid fell by 6.07% in December. Although the price of acetic acid increased slightly in December, the price of acetic acid at the end of the month increased by 50 yuan / ton compared with the lowest price in the month, but it failed to form an upward trend for a long time. Acetic acid market is mainly cold.

Methanol prices fell sharply in December

According to the monitoring data of the business society, the methanol price fell sharply in December, and the methanol market continued to decline. As of December 31, the methanol price was 2375 yuan / ton, down 14.26% from 2770 yuan / ton on December 1 at the beginning of the month; The domestic methanol market fell sharply. The cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the pressure of acetic anhydride decline increased.

Outlook

Analysts of acetic anhydride data of business agency believe that the price of raw acetic acid fell and the price of methanol fell sharply in December. The cost of acetic anhydride decreased; The enthusiasm of downstream purchasing is cold, and customers are cautious. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, the demand was general, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

In December, the domestic styrene butadiene market declined weakly. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of butylbenzene 1502 was 13383 yuan / ton at the beginning of February and 12233 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 8.59% from the beginning of the month.

In December, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber started stably, the supply side was loose, and the merchant’s offer was loose. Later, the merchant’s offer fell with the decrease of the ex factory price of styrene butadiene manufacturers. Styrene butadiene rubber prices fell slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of December 31, the ex factory price of Jihua / Fushun 1502 of PetroChina Northeast sales company was reported as 12100 yuan / ton.

List of styrene butadiene rubber commencement in December.

Styrene butadiene rubber enterprise Unit capacity start

Qilu Petrochemical 230000 T / A normal operation

Jilin Petrochemical 140000 T / A Three line operation

Yangzi Petrochemical 100000 t / A normal operation

Shenhua chemical 170000 T / A Three line operation

Lanzhou Petrochemical 150000t / A Three line operation

Fushun Petrochemical 200000 t / A Four line operation

Bridgestone 50000 / year normal operation

Zhejiang Weitai 100000 / year Two line operation

Hangzhou Yibang 100000 / year Two line operation

According to the business agency, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber enterprises basically operated normally in December, the construction started higher than that in November, and the supply side was loose.

In December, the raw material butadiene fell sharply and styrene rose. Although the price of styrene rose, it was still low after rebounding this month due to the large decline in the early stage, and the cost was not supported by styrene butadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business society, as of December 31, the price of butadiene was 4451 yuan / ton, down 27.26% from 6120 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; As of December 31, the price of styrene was 8400 yuan / ton, up 7.87% from 7787 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In December, the natural rubber market fluctuated and consolidated. The price at the beginning of the month was 13770 yuan / ton, the low point in the month was 132250 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 13748 yuan / ton, down 0.16% from the beginning of the month.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the supply side is loose and the cost side support is weak. It is expected that the SBR will be weak in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

In December, under the cost support and demand suppression, the styrene price fell slowly after rising sharply, rebounded at the end of the month and rose as a whole. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of styrene was 7787.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and rose all the way to 8400.00 yuan / ton by mid December, up 7.87%. After that, it began to fall. To the 23rd, the price of styrene was 8000.00 yuan / ton, down 4.76% from the mid month high, but still up 2.73% from the beginning of the month. From the 23rd to the 31st, driven by the impact of cost support and the decline of port inventory, the price rebounded. On the 31st, the price of styrene was 8400 yuan / ton, up 7.87% from the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

This month, under the influence of cost support and obvious destocking performance of wharf inventory due to incremental pick-up, the styrene price superimposed the market’s short expectation that Wanhua and lihuayi will be put into operation, which generally showed a slow decline after a sharp rise, and rebounded at the end of the month.

At the beginning of the month, the international crude oil entered the state of rising consolidation. The market situation of pure benzene, the raw material at the cost side, became one of the driving forces for the bottom support and slight rise of styrene. The short upsurge of pure benzene Market in Shandong promoted the rise of futures prices during the cycle, thus driving the spot to rise slightly.

By mid to late October, crude oil rebounded after falling, and the macro performance was acceptable, but it had no support for styrene. Due to the continuous rise of pure benzene inventory at the port, the operators tend to be cautious about the future market. The spot price of pure benzene is slightly corrected. The fundamentals of styrene are good, its output is slightly reduced, the downstream demand is stable, and the wharf inventory has obvious destocking performance due to the increase of delivery. However, Wanhua and lihuayi are about to be put into operation, the market expectation is short, the position increase of styrene futures is down, and the spot of styrene is down slightly.

From the end of the last ten days to the end of the month, after the crude oil price rose, the outer disk price of pure benzene rose sharply, and the domestic spot and far month negotiations actively pursued the outer disk. Due to the impact of the health incident of the Yangtze River pilot, the unloading cycle of the main commercial inventory of pure benzene was prolonged, and the arrival of some ships in transit was expected to be delayed, resulting in large households filling the air and raising the market price. The cost side supports the strength of styrene price, coupled with the decline of styrene port inventory, short-term spot tension in some domestic regions, obvious market rally mentality, and the spot price of styrene rebounds gradually.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that after entering January, due to the reduction of imported shipments from January to February, new styrene units are put into operation, and the extension of the unloading period of pure benzene import ships in the river, pure benzene is expected to be transferred to the warehouse removal stage, and the price of pure benzene may fluctuate at a high level. The cost support of styrene is still strong, but the supply and demand of styrene itself is not optimistic. With the production of Wanhua and the recovery of the supply of parking devices in the early stage, the domestic supply increases, while the downstream is still in the off-season, and the inventories of the three downstream are at a high level, so the demand for styrene has not improved. On the whole, there is a collision between good and bad. If the cost support is relaxed in the later stage, It will drive the correction of styrene price.

Commodity index: the polyacrylamide commodity index on December 31 was 105.96, the same as yesterday, down 4.98% from the highest point of 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 27.83% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Data monitoring shows that in December, the market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China continued to decline. The mainstream price on the 1st was about 17987.5 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 31st was about 17342.86 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 3.58%. The supply of goods is brisk this month, but the market demand is general.

On the macro level, the expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories last week boosted oil prices, and tight supply formed a strong support for the oil market. Recently, international crude oil rose strongly. As of December 28, the settlement price of the main contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was reported at $75.98/barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was reported at $78.67/barrel.

As shown in the figure above, according to the price monitoring of the trading society, 78 commodities rose month on month in December 2021, mainly in the chemical sector (35 in total) and the non-ferrous sector (13 in total), and the commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top three commodities were chloroform (41.13%), lithium carbonate (37.11%) and dichloromethane (36.91%). A total of 141 commodities decreased month on month, mainly in chemical industry (62 in total) and rubber and plastics (19 in total), and commodities with a decrease of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the chemical sector; The commodities with the top three declines were melamine (- 40.08%), liquefied natural gas (- 30.46%) and baking soda (- 29.05%). The average rise and fall this month was – 1.69%.

Industrial chain: the price of raw material acrylonitrile continued to fluctuate and decrease this month, and the range gradually expanded. In particular, it decreased for 4 consecutive days in the last week, with a total monthly decrease of 2000 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream quotation in the domestic market has fallen from 15400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to about 13400 yuan / ton.

As shown in the figure above, the market price of raw acrylic acid fell sharply this month. On the 1st, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 17000 yuan / ton, and on the 31st, the average market price was 13200 yuan / ton, down 22.35%. After the acrylic acid market fell sharply, the prices of some enterprises rose slightly. At the beginning of the month, the price of raw propylene was lowered, the cost support was weakened, the inventory of production plants was low, the downstream was mainly purchased on demand, and the market was weak and stable. With the price of raw propylene rising first and then falling, the supply of acrylic acid is sufficient, coupled with the weak follow-up of downstream demand, the market inquiry and transaction are depressed, and the price has fallen sharply. In the second half of the month, the market negotiation gradually bottomed out, the overseas mainstream units were force majeure, the export inquiry turned better, the prices of some enterprises increased, the raw propylene market was consolidated and operated, the cost support was limited, the downstream procurement was mainly on demand, and the market inquiry and transaction performance were general. The analysis shows that at present, the price of raw material propylene is mainly stable, with little impact on the cost, and the downstream goods are mainly prepared on demand. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be consolidated and operated stably in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

LNG is used in the production process. In the fourth quarter, domestic LNG prices rose first and then fell, and the peak season was not prosperous. In October, the demand for urban fuel increased, the price of raw materials increased, the overhaul of liquid plants, the tightening of market supply and other multiple positive superposition, which boosted the increase of liquid price by nearly 30% and shifted the focus upward. Early November is the highest point of the year, and then the downlink channel is opened. The downward trend did not stop in December, and Xinjiang fell to around 2000 yuan. Near the end of the month, the temperature has dropped sharply recently, the market trading atmosphere has improved, and the inventory pressure of liquid plants has been reduced. With the shutdown of some liquid plants and the consideration of cost, the domestic liquid price has continued to rise.

As for the future, the market of raw material acrylonitrile decreased significantly and the decline increased, the price of acrylic acid increased weakly, and the support of cost market was seriously unstable; At present, some enterprises in the main domestic production areas have stopped work before the Spring Festival, with sufficient supply in the market and general downstream demand. It is predicted that the trend of polyacrylamide will be stable and weak in the future. If the raw material price continues to decline frequently and sharply, it is likely that the polyacrylamide market will decline sharply.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, caprolactam increased by 25.45% in 2021, with the largest increase of 55.73% in the year. On January 1, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 11000 yuan / ton, and on December 30, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 13800 yuan / ton. The highest price of caprolactam in the year is 16300 yuan / ton, and the lowest price in the year is 10466 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

In 2021, the market trend of caprolactam first rose and then fell. The price of caprolactam fluctuated and rose from the middle of January, and began to fluctuate and fall to the end of the year after rising to the highest price in October. The biggest increase in the year was in February, with an increase of 23.05%. The biggest decline in the year was in November, with a decline of 9.12%.

From January 2021 to October 2021, the price of caprolactam fluctuated and increased by 47.05%. The market of raw material pure benzene has strengthened, and the price has risen sharply, which has strong and powerful support for the cost of caprolactam. Caprolactam entered the peak maintenance season in March, and the sharp decline in spot supply supported the spot price of caprolactam. At the same time, after the Spring Festival, the downstream PA6 operation level recovered rapidly, the demand increased, and the caprolactam price was raised. The cost, supply and demand of domestic caprolactam are favorable, and the market direction is clear. Caprolactam market trend is optimistic. In October, the price of caprolactam rose to the highest price of 16300 yuan / ton in the year.

From November 2021 to December 2021, the price of caprolactam continued to decline, with a decrease of 14.68%. The raw material pure benzene is in a downward trend, and the cost support is insufficient. The units of some caprolactam enterprises were restarted, and the supply increased. The downstream slice Market is light and the demand side is weak. Under the dual pressure of cost and demand, caprolactam ran down from weak in November to the end of the year.

In 2021, the total capacity of caprolactam was 5.39 million tons, an increase of 1.06 million tons compared with last year, an increase of 24.48%. In 2021, the total import volume of caprolactam from January to November was 101715.01 tons, and the total export volume from January to November was about 2531.35 tons. The import volume decreased and the export volume increased compared with last year.

New capacity of the enterprise. In 2021, Fujian Shenyuan put into operation 200000 tons of caprolactam, with a production capacity of 600000 tons. Inner Mongolia Qinghua Group 200000 tons put into operation. Xuyang group expanded its production capacity from 200000 tons to 300000 tons. Hualu Hengsheng production capacity of 300000 tons was successfully put into operation.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that the cost support is good in 2021 due to the enhanced trend of raw material market. The caprolactam unit is overhauled in turn, the supply end is tight, and the demand for caprolactam increases. Under multiple favorable conditions, caprolactam has a better trend this year and the market weakened at the end of the year. 2021 is coming to an end, and the short-term market is running smoothly.

In December, after that, the power of consumer terminals was insufficient, and manufacturers preferred to ship to the warehouse. It was difficult to be optimistic about the overall market. There was no positive support at the upstream and downstream, and the price of viscose staple fiber fell sharply twice.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business society, as of December 29, the domestic ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 12180 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1780 yuan / ton compared with the price at the end of November, a decrease of 12.75%.

During this period, it experienced two sharp declines. The first time: on December 2, 2021, the domestic ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 13180 yuan / ton, a decrease of about 780 yuan / ton compared with the end of November, and the price reduction range was 5.59%; The second time: on December 27, the domestic ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 12180 yuan / ton, down about 680 yuan / ton compared with the previous day, with a price reduction of 5.29%.

Light demand for textile terminals

Since November, the signing quantity of chemical fiber plants has been poor, and the downstream terminal demand has weakened obviously. Affected by this, the wait-and-see mood of downstream weaving, fabric enterprises and middlemen has increased, and the procurement has slowed down significantly or even suspended. In December, the textile terminal weaving market continued to weaken, and the operating load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang was around 62%. There are no new orders in the hands of some factories. In addition, the production inventory risk is high, and the new year is approaching, the start-up rate of terminal weaving may continue to decline. At present, the procurement of weaving factories is moderately followed up, focusing on cautious procurement.

Upstream staple and pulp Market

In December, the plan of converting some pulp units to dissolved pulp may be shelved due to the market. Due to the weakness of viscose staple fiber market, the quotation of raw pulp fell slightly. The inquiry of domestic dissolved pulp is limited, the trading volume is under pressure, and the price is loose with the imported pulp. In the spot market, recently, the average quotation of broad-leaved dissolved pulp in the outer market is around 910 US dollars / ton, and the price of domestic dissolved pulp is 6500-7000 yuan / ton. The actual transaction can be negotiated, but the transaction is not good.

The price of cotton yarn followed the decline

In December, cotton yarn continued its weak operation, the price continued to fall with the raw viscose staple fiber, the trading atmosphere was weak, and the downstream terminal demand was weak. According to the price monitoring of the business society, as of December 29, 2021, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30s, ring spinning, first-class products) was 18266 yuan / ton, down nearly 1000 yuan / ton compared with the end of November, with a decrease of 5.20%.

In December, with the downward adjustment of the price of viscose staple fiber, the upstream raw material, and the continuous holiday and shutdown of terminal factories near the Spring Festival, there were many negative factors on the fundamentals. The manufacturers expressed pessimistic attitude towards the future market. Analysts of the business society expect that the short-term human cotton yarn market will be mainly sorted downward.

Judging from the current market situation, due to the insufficient demand for orders, the domestic terminal demand is difficult to improve. In December, with the downward adjustment of the price of upstream raw viscose staple fiber and the continuous suspension of terminal factories near the Spring Festival, the accumulation of products in the downstream textile factories is becoming more and more obvious. In addition, the cash flow pressure before the Spring Festival is large, the textile factories began to clear their warehouses and collect money, The purchase intention of human cotton yarn decreased significantly. There are many negative fundamentals. Manufacturers are pessimistic about the outlook. Business analysts expect that the short-term cotton yarn market will be mainly sorted down.

Future forecast

According to the experience of previous years, there will be a wave of “xiaoyangchun” market in the raw material market in late December to replenish the stock for the Spring Festival, but this wave of “xiaoyangchun” has failed this year. The later trend of the sticky short market mainly depends on the upstream and downstream game and the demand of downstream terminals. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the terminal factories are going to have holidays and stop production one after another. There are many negative fundamentals and the new year is approaching. It is expected that the market situation of viscose staple fiber will remain weak in the future, and the price may have been dominated by weak consolidation.

In December, the price focus of propane market still shifted downward, and the overall trend was first restrained and then increased. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 5770.75 yuan / ton on December 1 and 5435.75 yuan / ton on December 28, with a decrease of 5.81% during the month and 16.51% compared with November 1.

As of December 28, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

region December 28th

East China 5450-5500 yuan / ton

North China 5350-5450 yuan / ton

Shandong region 5250-5450 yuan / ton

Northeast China 5400-5500 yuan / ton

In December, the domestic propane market continued to decline, the center of gravity still shifted downward, and the trend of the South and North markets was weak. Although the international crude oil rose sharply in December, it brought Limited benefits to the propane Market. In December, CP prices fell sharply, which brought obvious bad news to the domestic market. The supply in Shandong market was relatively sufficient, and the cooling of the weather in the first half of the month was not obvious. The terminal demand was limited, the downstream market entry enthusiasm was not high, the manufacturer’s shipment was general, and the profit making shipment was dominated one after another. Until the end of the month, the continuous increase of international crude oil brought some support to the market, and the terminal demand increased significantly after the winter solstice. The downstream market entry enthusiasm was better than that in the early stage, the manufacturer’s mentality was strong, and the price rebounded.

Saudi Aramco announced in December 2021 that both propylene and butane fell. Propane was 790 USD / T, down 80 USD / T from the previous month; Butane was 770 USD / T, down 60 USD / T from the previous month.

At present, the international crude oil is rising, the news is good, the market mentality is good, and the north and South markets are rising to varying degrees. The terminal demand has increased, the downstream market is active, and the market trading atmosphere is better than that in the early stage. However, near the end of the month, CP will be introduced in January, and it is expected to fall, which will bring some restraint to the market. The propane market is expected to rise first and then fall in January.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the TDI market price trend this week was stable, medium and small. On December 24, the average market price in East China was 16125 yuan / ton. Compared with 16100 yuan / ton on December 18, the average market price in the week increased by 0.16% and 12.17% month on month.

The domestic TDI market is dominated by consolidation and operation. Last week, most domestic devices were shut down for maintenance, the on-site spot supply was tight, and the TDI offer rose to a high level. This week, some devices in the market were restarted, but the short-term on-site spot supply is still tight, the market suppliers occupy a dominant position, the price holders are keen to keep their prices, the offer is high and stable, the downstream inquiry is rational, and the market purchase is mainly in demand, The market transaction is light, and the atmosphere in the venue is more cautious. As of the 24th, the reference for domestic goods with tickets in the mainstream market in East China is about 15200-15500 yuan / ton, and that for Shanghai goods with tickets is 15500-15800 yuan / ton, mainly through real order negotiation. The dealer’s quotation was adjusted according to the market news, and the price remained high and stable during the week.

The upstream toluene market continued to decline, and the price decreased by 4.33% within the week. As of December 24, the domestic average price of toluene was 5530.00 yuan / ton. Toluene port inventory increases, market supply accumulates, while downstream demand maintains rigid demand, the enthusiasm for entering the market procurement is weak, the mentality of operators is negative, and the focus of toluene market continues to move downward.

According to the analysis of TDI data division of business society, at present, the supply of goods in the domestic TDI market continues to be tight, and the supply side continues to be good. However, the sales volume of terminal products is general, and the market demand is weak, resulting in cold transactions in the market, which suppresses the increase of TDI from the demand side. The market is in a state of supply-demand game, and the short-term TDI market is in a stalemate. As the supply side enterprise devices recover, The price may be reduced in the later stage. Pay attention to the supplier’s devices and downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on January 1 was 2440 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on December 24 was 3600 yuan / ton. The overall increase in the whole year was 47.54%, and the maximum increase in the year was 48.57%. The highest price of diammonium phosphate in the year is 3625 yuan / ton, and the lowest price in the year is 2440 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

The total capacity of diammonium phosphate in 2020 is 20.82 million tons, and there is no new capacity in 2021 compared with last year. The total output of diammonium phosphate from January to November in 2021 is 13.0565 million tons. In 2020, the total output of diammonium phosphate will be 12.7752 million tons. This year is 2.20% higher than last year. The total export volume from January to November 2021 is about 6.2177 million tons, and the export volume in 2020 is about 5.73 million tons, an increase of 18.72% over last year.

In 2021, the price of diammonium phosphate continued to rise from the beginning of the year. After rising to the highest price in August, it began to operate smoothly until the end of the year. The biggest increase in the year was in February, with an increase of 16.47%. The biggest decline in the year was in April, with a decline of 1.59%.

In the first stage (January March), the price of diammonium phosphate rose continuously, with an increase of 29.10%.

The price of diammonium increased in January. Mainly due to the tight supply of goods in the field, the upward trend of raw materials, the stable demand for winter storage, the increase of inquiry heat in the downstream, no pressure on sales of diammonium phosphate enterprises, queuing for delivery, strong price support and strong positive support, diammonium phosphate has a strong trend. In February, the market was still relatively stable, the price was not loose, and the mentality of the industry was good. After the Spring Festival, the calm was broken, diammonium rose sharply, most enterprises stopped reporting and did not collect money, and mainly issued early orders. In March, domestic orders were received in limited quantity, and the market supply was tight. In spring farming season, the demand side was strongly supported, and the trend of diammonium phosphate was strong in the situation of supply exceeding demand.

In the first stage (April May), the price of diammonium phosphate fell by 2.65%.

Since April, the rise of diammonium phosphate has been suspended, the price tends to be stable, and diammonium phosphate has entered the stalemate operation stage. The domestic market is weak, and enterprises and traders are mainly export-oriented. There is a large amount of enterprises to be issued. Some enterprises have been overhauled, and the market supply has decreased. The downstream demand for diammonium is insufficient, and the spring farming market has entered the closing stage.

In the third stage (June August), the price of diammonium phosphate increased by 17.55%.

Since June, the price of diammonium has started to rise again. The atmosphere of the export market is good, the waiting volume is large, and the supply of goods is tight. Some enterprises stop for maintenance, most enterprises suspend their quotation, and the actual transaction can be negotiated. The price of raw materials is high. Supported by the cost, it rose to the highest point of 3625 yuan / ton in August. From the second half of August, the price of diammonium tends to stabilize. The pending orders of diammonium decreased and the market trend gradually weakened. Due to the poor price of urea, the trend of downstream compound fertilizer is weak, the demand for diammonium is reduced, and the overall market is weak. The quotation of most enterprises was suspended and the unit was operated under reduced load. The progress of winter storage market is slow, and there is no clear guidance in the market.

In the fourth stage (September December), the price of diammonium phosphate fell by 0.14%

Continuing the trend at the end of August, the market of diammonium began to stabilize from September to the end of the year. Diammonium phosphate has a large number of domestic orders. Most enterprises still mainly send early orders and do not receive payment temporarily. Most enterprises have no quotation for the time being. Under the influence of power and production restriction and environmental protection, diammonium continues to operate at a high level. Although the price of raw materials rose, the cost support was good. However, the progress of winter storage market is slow, the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are cautious in taking goods, and the transaction on the site is not ideal.

3、 Future forecast

According to ammonium phosphate analysts of business society, the overall performance of diammonium phosphate Market in 2021 is strong. Since the beginning of the year, the price has risen continuously to a high level. Due to power and production restriction and environmental protection, the price of raw materials rose, the supply of diammonium was insufficient, the downstream demand was actively followed up, and multiple advantages led to the sharp rise of diammonium market. At the end of the year, demand began to weaken and ended weakly and steadily. It is expected that the recent market will be dominated by weak and stable operation.