Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, in mid February, the domestic PA66 market continued to operate weakly, and the spot prices of various brands fell. As of February 17, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 35000 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 2.78% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, adipic acid market operates steadily, some markets are slightly loose, dealers’ offer is still high, and manufacturers are still generally very competitive. The price of raw material pure benzene is high and the cost support is obvious. It is expected that the high level of adipic acid market will stabilize in the near future. The overall supply of adiponitrile is still tight, citing the domestic production cost of PA66.

The price of adipic acid, the raw material in the upstream, is loose in a narrow range, the supply of adiponitrile is limited, and the cost side support of PA66 is acceptable. Recently, the operating rate of the industry has been at a high level, and the load level of domestic PA66 industry has basically returned to normal. The inventory position in Hong Kong is not high, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is limited. In terms of demand, the current buyer’s follow-up situation is biased towards the just need to maintain production, and the transaction resistance of high-priced goods sources has increased. The smooth flow of goods in the venue is poor, the seller’s mentality is affected, and the offer continues to yield profits.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 continued to fall in mid February. The supply of adiponitrile at the raw material end has not improved, the adipic acid market returns high and narrow, and the cost side support of PA66 is OK. The load of PA66 enterprise returned to normal and was in a high position, and the support of the supply side to the spot was weakened. Downstream users have a deep resistance to the supply of high priced goods. At present, the downstream demand is sluggish and the trading atmosphere on the floor is poor. It is expected that PA66 may maintain a stable and weak market in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic hips on February 11 was 11733.33 yuan / ton, up from 11233.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 4.45% during the week and 4.76% month on month.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of raw styrene rose first and then fell, and the cost side supported the rise of hips price. The benzene market also rose simultaneously. After the Spring Festival, the market gradually recovered, downstream enterprises started one after another, the demand increased, the market trading atmosphere improved, the cost and demand side supported, and the hips price increased. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream ex factory price of hips was mostly about 11400-14300 yuan / ton, and the price of benzene was mostly 9600-10500 yuan / ton. The PS market rose steadily during the week.

In the international crude oil market, the price of international crude oil futures rose sharply on February 11. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $93.10/barrel, up US $3.22 or 3.6%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $94.44/barrel, up US $3.03 or 3.3%. Oil prices hit a new high in more than seven years, mainly due to the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which exacerbated concerns about the shortage of global energy supply.

In terms of raw materials, the market price of styrene rose first and then fell this week, with a small overall decline. On February 7, East China styrene closed near 9050-9350 yuan / ton. On February 11, it was 8850-9000 yuan / ton, down near 200-300 yuan / ton. The above is the tank price in Zhangjiagang. On February 7, South China styrene closed at 9300-9350 yuan / ton. On February 11, it was 8800-8850 yuan / ton, down by 500 yuan / ton. The delivery price of the above factories.

3、 Future forecast

The business community believes that after the Spring Festival, the hips market is rising, but the raw material styrene is still in a state of excess fundamentals, and the probability is weak. Therefore, it is expected that the hips market will be generally stable and watch carefully.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of sulfur (granular sulfur) in East China this week was stable and upward. The quotation of sulfur was 2170 yuan / ton on February 11. Compared with 2150 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, it increased by 0.93% during the week and 3.50% month on month.

The domestic sulfur market continued to rise, the downstream sulfuric acid market continued to improve and the progress of phosphate fertilizer was stable. The shipment of sulfur enterprises was smooth, and the mentality of the operators was positive. During the week, refineries in various regions raised their quotations according to their shipment and inventory. The price of sulfur fixation increased significantly in North China, and increased by 20 yuan / ton in East China and Shandong at the same time; The price of liquid sulfur fluctuated significantly. The price of liquid sulfur in Shandong and East China increased by 130-150 yuan / ton, while the price of liquid sulfur in North China increased by 300-330 yuan / ton. The price of sulfur particles in China as of February 11 is as follows:

region varieties February 7th February 11th Rise and fall

East China Sulfur (particle) 2140-2230 yuan / ton 2160-2250 yuan / ton 0

North China Sulfur (particle) 1870-2060 yuan / ton 2120-2310 yuan / ton two hundred and fifty

Shandong region Sulfur (particle) 2110 yuan / ton 2130 yuan / ton twenty

The downstream phosphate fertilizer market was reorganized and operated. On Monday, the ammonium market trend was stable, the atmosphere in the venue was mainly wait-and-see, the amount of enterprises to be issued was sufficient, and the manufacturers had the intention to raise the price in the future. Diammonium rose slightly during the week, the fertilizer storage market improved, the market demand increased, and the buying gas in Northeast China was good. However, due to the large number of early orders, some enterprises suspended receiving orders. From the perspective of supply and demand performance, the market of ammonium phosphate is stable and good.

According to the sulfur analyst of business society, the domestic port has a small amount of arrival and circulation, and the on-site cargo holders have a strong intention to support the price. Coupled with the positive support of the downstream market, the inventory of domestic sulfur refineries is not under pressure, and the enterprise shipment is smooth. It is expected that the sulfur market will continue to operate at a high level in the future, and pay attention to the market follow-up.

2.14 aluminum price callback

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on February 14 was 22710 yuan / ton, down 1.03% per day, up 5.17% from the average market price of 21593.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (2.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton in early January (January 1), it increased by 11.49%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen 6.31% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 21.49% recently.

Main cause of callback

On the 11th, the aluminum price began to callback at a high level, interrupting the continuous rising market in the early stage.

The recent correction of aluminum price, on the one hand, is based on the rapid rise of aluminum price in a short time after the festival, and the downstream undertaking is weak; According to insiders, the aluminum price exceeded 23000 yuan / ton last week, and the market turnover decreased sharply. On the other hand, considering the Winter Olympics after the festival, the resumption rate of downstream aluminum rod plants and profiles in the northern region was lower than expected. Affected by the rise of aluminum price, the overall mood of replenishing and preparing warehouses in the downstream was not high, and the centralized resumption time of processing plants was in the second half of this month.

Future forecast

After the quarter, the aluminum price rose sharply. After breaking through 23000 points, the long short game intensified, the downstream wait-and-see mood was strong, and the taking of goods decreased sharply. It is expected that the recent high-level shock operation will be dominated.

Aluminum price callback on the 11th

According to the data of business agency, on February 11, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 22946.67 yuan / ton, down 1.53% per day, up 6.27% from the average market price of 21593.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (2.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton in early January (January 1), it increased by 12.65%.

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 5.34% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 22.75% recently.

Main driving force of strong operation

Yesterday, the aluminum price broke through 23000 yuan / ton again and began to callback today. On the one hand, the total inventory of the company is 26690 tons, which is lower than that of the previous week. LME inventory was 880975 tons, an increase of 119025 tons over the previous trading day.

From a fundamental point of view, the internal and external reasons for the strong aluminum price remain.

There are three internal reasons for the recent strong operation of aluminum price:

1. The circulation of aluminum ingots in some areas of Guangxi has been blocked due to public health events, and the aluminum ingot inventory in Baise has basically changed to the factory inventory; Baise is the largest aluminum production city in Guangxi. According to the data, the completed production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Guangxi is about 2.82 million tons, of which the completed production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Baise is 2.32 million tons, accounting for more than 80% of the total production capacity in Guangxi. However, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in Guangxi has been insufficient due to power and other reasons. By the end of January, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Guangxi was about 1.98 million tons, of which the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Baise was 1.73 million tons, It accounts for 4% – 5% of the national operation capacity.

2. On the cost side, alumina prices rose slightly. Affected by the Winter Olympics, the operating capacity of alumina in Shanxi, Shandong and Henan has been reduced, about 15 million, with an average daily production reduction of 40000 tons. After the festival, there is more inventory digestion, and there is a large demand for replenishment of aluminum plants.

3. From the inventory data, the social inventory accumulation data of the Spring Festival is good. As of July 7, the domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 866000 tons, which is not much larger than that before the festival. In addition, there are more export orders from downstream enterprises recently, and the market sentiment is rising.

The external factors mainly focus on the production reduction caused by the early European energy problems.

Future forecast

The fundamentals of aluminum ingots have improved and the demand is expected to rise. After the quarter, the aluminum price rose sharply. After breaking through 23000 points, the long short game intensified, the downstream wait-and-see mood was strong, and the taking of goods decreased sharply. It is expected that the recent high-level shock operation will be dominated.

Market price of main domestic hydrogenated benzene Market on February 10 (unit: yuan / ton)

Market, Price on February 10

East China, eight thousand and twenty-five

Shandong Province, eight thousand and twenty-five

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

January 11, 7400.,+100

January 14, 7550.,+150

January 19, 7700.,+150

February 7, 8100.,+400

On February 7, 2021, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene by 400 yuan / ton, 8100 yuan / ton, and Qilu Petrochemical by 8050 yuan / ton.

Other enterprises: Dongming Petrochemical offers 8200 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical 8100 yuan / ton, Jincheng Petrochemical 8250 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical 8103 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical 8100 yuan / ton, Hongrun petrochemical 8450 yuan / ton.

Basically, after the festival, the prices of pure benzene and crude oil rose. Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene to 8100 yuan / ton. Although the crude oil price rebounded slightly near the weekend, the overall industrial chain is still upward. The price of hydrogenated benzene increased with pure benzene. At present, the mainstream ex factory price is 8100 yuan / ton. Crude oil rebounded slightly on the 9th, styrene prices continued to fall on the 10th, and pure benzene weakened slightly with styrene. Today, the mainstream price of domestic pure benzene is 8050-8450 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrogenated benzene also decreased slightly.

Trade name: formic acid

Latest price (February 9): 4566.67 yuan / ton

On February 9, the formic acid market was mainly stable, and the prices of some enterprises increased, up 0.74% compared with the previous trading day and 5.43% compared with the prices on January 9. Recently, the market of methanol, the main raw material, has been operating at a high level, with certain support on the cost side. After the festival, downstream enterprises have resumed work one after another, mainly in need of replenishment, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable.

It is expected that the formic acid market may be stable in the short term

1、 Toluene price summary:

The quotation of Shijiazhuang refining and chemical company is 6100 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical Company is 6100 yuan / ton,

Yangba offers 6250 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical offers 6300 yuan / ton,

Changling refinery offers 6350 yuan / ton,

Shandong Jingbo Petrochemical offers 7500 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, the number of active oil rigs in the United States this week was 497, an increase of 2 month on month and 198 year-on-year, according to the data released by Baker Hughes on the 4th. The market is worried that the severe cold weather in the United States may lead to the interruption of oil supply, adding to the geopolitical tension, and the international oil price continues to rise.

During the Spring Festival, the crude oil market rose broadly, driving the general rise of relevant commodities, and toluene followed the rise of crude oil. Sinopec raised prices in a wide range, the market actively followed the rise, and toluene welcomed the “good start”.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market continued to rise on January 27. The average market price in East China was 5424 yuan / ton, up 1.92% from the previous trading day and 42.57% year-on-year. PTA futures 2205 closed at 5496, up 164, or 3.08%.

In terms of supply, two sets of PTA units with a total of 5.3 million tons in East China announced the maintenance plan at the end of February, including 2 million tons of Yisheng Ningbo and 3.3 million tons / year of Yisheng new materials. In addition, the 3.3 million ton new capacity unit of Yisheng new materials phase II is planned to start commissioning on January 28, increasing supply and accumulating inventory. At present, the operating rate of PTA industry is around 86%.

Crude oil once again set a new high since October 2014. On January 26, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $87.35/barrel, up US $1.75 or 2.04%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $88.74/barrel, up US $1.66 or 1.90%. Brent crude oil contract in March rose above $90 for the first time since 2014. The main reason is that the supply tension is expected to continue to rise and boost oil prices, the tension between Russia and Ukraine is escalating, and the output increase of OPEC of the organization of petroleum exporting countries is lower than expected.

With the Spring Festival approaching, the downstream polyester construction will fall seasonally, and it is difficult for the demand side to boost the market. The terminal textile enterprises have successively shut down for holidays, the procurement of raw materials has obviously weakened, the actual transactions are rare, most factories have been shut down, and the comprehensive starting rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to about 13%. Polyester factory quotation remained stable, and individual specifications rose slightly.

Business analysts believe that crude oil continues to push up PTA, but maintenance at the end of the month coexists with investment in new production capacity, and there is still pressure on the supply side. In addition, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, demand is poor, and PTA prices are expected to continue to rise weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity data monitoring, the center of gravity of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus is downward. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 4066.67 yuan / ton on January 1 and 32250 yuan / ton on January 26. The price fell by 20.7% during the month.

2、 Market analysis

The price focus of domestic yellow phosphorus market is downward. After the new year’s Day holiday, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus has increased, the overall market is relatively cold, the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, and the transaction of yellow phosphorus market is weak and downward. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching the end of the market, with few new orders and sporadic replenishment. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 31000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 34000 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, as of January 26, 2022, the reference average price in the mainstream areas of 30% grade phosphate rock in China is around 700 yuan / ton. Compared with January 1 (the ex factory price of phosphate rock is 690 yuan / ton), the average price has increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 1.45%. At present, near the Spring Festival, the operating rate of domestic phosphorus ore mines is low, and the supply of phosphorus ore is still tight. Phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that on the eve of the Spring Festival, the domestic phosphorus ore market will be consolidated at a high level, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

In terms of coke, according to the price monitoring of business society, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shanxi increased by 2938 yuan / ton on January 26, an increase of 20.51% compared with January 1 (2438 yuan / ton of secondary metallurgical coke). At present, the on-site inventory is generally low. Downstream steel mills are also expected to increase their production restriction near the East Olympic Games. They purchase coke on demand, and there is still some demand for replenishment near the holidays. On the whole, in the recent environment of weak supply and demand, the coke market is expected to operate stably for the time being.

In terms of phosphoric acid, in January, the domestic phosphoric acid market was running downward. At the end of the month, the market price of phosphoric acid was temporarily stable, and the start-up of enterprises was stable. Some small factories may have holidays in advance. Near the Spring Festival, downstream factories shut down and have holidays one after another, and the replenishment of positions was basically over. Phosphoric acid enterprises often occur in the surrounding areas. According to the monitoring data of business society, the reference price of phosphoric acid was 9966.67 yuan / ton on January 26, down 13.08% compared with January 1 (11466.67 yuan / ton).

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of the business agency, on the whole, the price of yellow phosphorus fell sharply this month. The phosphoric acid market moves downward, the downstream market is more resistant to the high price of yellow phosphorus, and the overall market demand is poor. The Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and the market is basically stagnant. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be stabilized temporarily in the short term.