1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency: on November 4, the average price of domestic LNG was 7633.33 yuan / ton, compared with 8276.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, the price decreased by 643 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.77%, and an increase of 102.83% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the domestic LNG market rose first and then declined, and then continued to decline, with a decline of about 8% during the week. On Monday, after the rise of feed gas price at the end of October, the domestic liquid price quickly rose to above 8000 yuan / ton, and the increase range of the liquid plant was about 1000 yuan. However, the rise was like a flash in the pan. On Tuesday, it began to fall rapidly, with a daily decrease of about 2% – 3%. Moreover, the liquid plant often adjusted the price twice, spit back most of the increase, and the focus shifted sharply downward. The continuous decline in prices this week was mainly due to the insufficient follow-up of downstream demand. After the sharp jump of the liquid plant, the bottom support was poor, the market trading atmosphere was not high, the liquid plant inventory increased, the sales pressure increased, and continued to reduce prices for shipment. In addition, since the 3rd, Hubei Huanggang liquid plant started sales, the market supply further increased, which was bad for the domestic LNG market. At present, 7200-7750 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 7690-8250 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 7550-8000 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 7630-7750 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 7500-7800 yuan / ton in Hebei and 8300-8700 yuan / ton in Shandong. The inlet gas price is about 6400-8510 yuan / ton. The domestic gas decreases greatly and the imported gas fluctuates.

Downstream products were mixed:

Methanol, the methanol market offer price in southern Shandong is around 3100 yuan / ton, the factory provides cash exchange, Linyi receives the local offer price and delivers it to cash exchange around 3000 yuan / ton, and the logistics offer is not available yet. The atmosphere is average, most of them wait and see. The methanol market in Dongying, Shandong Province negotiated to rise to 2860-2950 yuan / ton and sent to spot exchange. The transaction is general and there are different views. The methanol market in central Shandong increased to 2860-2950 yuan / ton through negotiation and sent to cash exchange. The quotation of the local methanol factory in central Shandong stabilized to 3200-3300 yuan / ton, and the factory provided cash exchange. The transaction was poor.

On the 4th, the market price of liquid ammonia in Shandong continued to decline, and the prices of some manufacturers decreased by 50-100 yuan / ton. The dealer’s offer has declined, and the downstream procurement takes the goods normally, focusing on just demand. At present, with the increase of the manufacturer’s shipment, there are more sources of goods in the market, and the inventory has increased significantly compared with the previous period. At present, the mainstream market price in this region is 4800-4950 yuan / ton. It is expected that the ammonia price may still decline in the near future.

For urea, the ex factory quotation of domestic urea fell on November 3, which was 20 yuan / ton lower than that on November 1, a decrease of 0.72%, and a year-on-year increase of 54.86%. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas have fallen sharply recently, and the cost support has weakened. Urea cost support weakened, downstream demand increased and urea supply decreased. In the future, the ex factory price of domestic urea is expected to decline slightly: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2700 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

LNG analysts of business society believe that: at present, there are insufficient positive expectations, insufficient bottom support after the liquid price rises in the early stage, tired downstream mentality, negative market trading atmosphere and pressure on liquid plant shipments. It is expected that the domestic LNG price will continue to reduce expectations in the short term.

Trade name: isooctanol

Latest price (November 3): 13100.00 yuan / ton

On November 3, the ex factory quotation of isooctanol in Shandong fell, down 366.67 yuan / ton or 2.72% compared with the quotation on November 1. The upstream propylene market rose slightly and the cost support was strengthened. The downstream DOP market fell slightly, and the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement weakened.

Recently, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong may fluctuate slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 13000 yuan / ton.

In October, the domestic Shunding market rose first and then fell. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of cis-polybutadiene rubber was 13220 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and then rose to the highest point of 15380 yuan / ton in the month. At the end of the month, the price fell back to 14820 yuan / ton, an increase of 12.10% over the beginning of the month.

In the middle and early ten days of October, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber market rose sharply in the early stage, and the ex factory price increased frequently. Within the month, the increase range was around 1800 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of business society, as of October 31, the ex factory price of Jihua / Fushun 1502 of PetroChina Northeast sales company was reported as 14700 yuan / ton; Market traders’ offers followed suit. In the middle and late October, with the rising price of Shunding, the downstream resisted the high price of Shunding, mostly purchased on demand, the transaction was slightly deadlocked, and the market price fell slightly at the end of the month

List of commencement of polybutadiene rubber in October.

In October, raw butadiene rose sharply, and the cost side was slightly supported. According to the monitoring of business society, as of October 31, the price of butadiene was 7991 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 14.02% compared with 7008 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest increase in the middle of the month was 20.36%.

In October, the natural rubber market rose and fell. At the beginning of the month, the price was 13184 yuan / ton, rose to 14263 yuan / ton within the month, and fell to 13723 yuan / ton at the end of the month. At the end of the month, it increased by 4.09% compared with the beginning of the month, with the highest increase of 8.94% in the month.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that although the high international crude oil price in October led to a sharp rise in the domestic petrochemical market, the rising momentum of raw butadiene is weak. In addition, the price of natural rubber also surged up and fell, and the supply and demand side is difficult to support the high price Shunding. It is expected that Shunding rubber may continue to fall in the future to find support.

1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of October 31, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha was 7685.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.60% over 6948.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha increased first and then decreased.

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of October 31, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 7325.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.64% over 6805.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of local refining straight run naphtha increased first and then decreased.

On October 31, the naphtha commodity index was 94.85, unchanged from yesterday, down 8.22% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 124.55% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the price of refined naphtha in this month rises first and then decreases. At present, the mainstream price of hydrogenated naphtha is about 7500-7800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 7200-7500 yuan / ton. In the near future, the downstream of the local refining market is mainly purchased on demand. As of the week of October 27, Singapore’s inventory of residual fuel oil (except asphalt), including fuel oil and low sulfur waxy residual oil, increased by 109000 barrels to a seven week high of 21.8 million barrels. During the week, light distillate stocks, including naphtha, gasoline and reformate, fell 157000 barrels to a two-week low of 12.187 million barrels. Medium distillate stocks increased by 976000 barrels to a five week high of 10.786 million barrels.

Upstream: international crude oil prices continued to rise in October. On the one hand, the current situation of global energy supply shortage is difficult to alleviate in the short term, especially natural gas. The European energy crisis is becoming more and more serious, and the EU natural gas inventory has reached the lowest level in recent ten years. Affected by the resonance of energy tension, crude oil inventories continue to decline. At present, OECD oil inventories have reached the lowest level since 2015. Moreover, recently, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies have no new production increase plan, the market supply expectation is still tight, and the crude oil price has risen to the highest level in seven years. On the other hand, the inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) was significantly positive. The U.S. crude oil inventory fell to the lowest level since 2018, superimposed on the increase in refinery demand, and the oil price was strongly supported in the short term. In addition, with the approach of winter in the northern hemisphere and the increase of heating demand, crude oil prices are supported.

Downstream: in October, the price of toluene rose continuously to a high level and fell slightly at the end of the month. On October 1, the price of toluene was 5700 / ton, 6770.2 yuan / ton on October 29, the lowest price in this month was 5700 yuan / ton, and the highest price in this month was 6930 yuan / ton, an increase of 18.78% over the beginning of the month; In October, mixed xylene opened the upward channel, and the price continued to rise in a wide range, falling at the end of the month. On October 1, the price of mixed xylene was 5860 / ton; On October 29, the price was 6830 yuan / ton, the lowest price in this month was 5860 yuan / ton, and the highest price in this month was 7060 yuan / ton, an increase of 16.55% over the beginning of the month; The price of p-xylene rose in October. By the end of the month, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, up 2.82% from 7100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there were 12 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in October 2021, including 10 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 62.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (29.09%), fuel oil (22.54%) and diesel (15.00%). There are 3 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were power coal (- 11.99%), methanol (- 7.27%) and petroleum coke (- 3.69%). The average increase and decrease this month was 6.93%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of the business society, the international crude oil rose sharply in October, supported by the cost of the local refined naphtha market. After the National Day holiday, some businesses just needed to replenish a small amount of goods, and the local refined naphtha market rose sharply; At the end of the month, affected by the decline of international crude oil and downstream product oil, the transaction in naphtha market was negative, the terminal just needed to prepare goods, and the market operation was cautious and mostly wait-and-see. It is expected that the price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha may be dominated by weakness in November.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, pure benzene rose continuously and the price rose broadly in the first half of October; In the second half of the month, prices began to fluctuate downward and fell deeply at the end of the month. On October 1, the price was 7880 yuan / ton; On October 29, the price was 7500-7700 yuan / ton (average price 7600 yuan / ton), the highest price of this month appeared on October 13, the price was 8580 yuan / ton, and the lowest price appeared on October 29, the price was 7600 yuan / ton. This month’s decline was 3.55%, an increase of 111.11% over the same period last year, and the difference between the highest and lowest prices in the month was 980 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and review

The first half of October: during the period of November 11, crude oil rose broadly, driving the relevant commodity markets to actively follow up. The cost side support was strong, the outer disk Asian pure benzene followed the rise, the external news was good, and the domestic pure benzene market followed the rise. Two new caprolactam units have been put into operation in the downstream of Shandong, and the downstream bidding is enthusiastic. The pure benzene enterprises have good shipments and the inventory has decreased. Multiple positive attacks, in the first half of the month, the price of pure benzene rose broadly.

With the weakening of downstream demand, the overall decline of pure benzene market and the impact of low price of hydrogenated benzene in the north, pure benzene fluctuated downward. Due to power restriction in East China, the downstream operating rate is not high as a whole, and the demand for pure benzene is weak. It was reported near the end of the month that the crude oil quota of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II was implemented, and the export volume of pure benzene in East China was expected to further increase. Superimposed on the general weakness of bulk commodities, the price of pure benzene fell rapidly, with a decline of nearly 9% in the last week.

This month, Sinopec raised the price twice and lowered the price twice, with a total increase of 700 yuan / ton to 8300-8400 yuan / ton twice and a total decrease of 800 yuan / ton to 7500-7600 yuan / ton twice.

In terms of crude oil, with the approaching winter in the northern hemisphere and the easing of the epidemic, energy demand is expected to increase. Global natural gas and coal prices soared, and some power plants were replaced by oil. The shortage of crude oil supply continued to drive the international oil price higher, with oil distribution and US oil both exceeding US $80 / barrel. Brent rose 6.07 USD / barrel this month, or 7.75%; WTI rose $8.54/barrel, or 11.38%.

In the external market, Asian pure benzene fell after rising in width this month. On October 29, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $961 / T, an increase of US $2 / T or 0.21% over September 30.

Downstream, styrene: styrene fluctuated and fell after a wide rise this month. On October 1, the production price in Shandong was 9190 yuan / ton, and on October 29, the price was 9480 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.16% this month and 39.41% over the same period last year.

Aniline: in October, aniline showed a broad upward trend as a whole. On October 1, the price in Shandong was 11000-11320 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11300-11500 yuan / ton; On October 29, the price in Shandong was 14000-14260 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 14500 yuan / ton; It increased by 26.87% compared with the beginning of the month and 111.44% compared with the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, the Iranian nuclear negotiations may be restarted, but the prospect is still uncertain. Crude oil supply is expected to be tight, the pattern is difficult to change, the global epidemic has eased, energy demand is expected to improve, and short-term crude oil prices are expected to remain high. The market is waiting for the OPEC + meeting to be held on November 4 to discuss the output policy. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of global climate, epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on output, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

Crude oil may fall, but the price is still high and the cost support is strong. If the production capacity of pure benzene of Zhejiang Petrochemical is improved, the supply of pure benzene will increase in the later stage. Some downstream still limit power, reduce load and stop, and weak demand limits the recovery of pure benzene prices. On the whole, pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly in early November. Continue to pay attention to the dynamic market of downstream, the dynamics of domestic pure benzene units, and the impact of the trend of crude oil and external disk on the price of pure benzene.

The price of orthobenzene rose strongly in October

According to the data monitoring of business society, the quotation of o-xylene continued to rise sharply in October. As of October 28, the listed executive price of o-xylene Sinopec was 6900 yuan / ton, an increase of 400 yuan / ton, or 6.15%, compared with 6500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The ortho benzene market remained strong in October.

Both upstream and downstream of the industrial chain

According to the monitoring data of business society, the upstream and downstream of the o-benzene industrial chain soared in October. As of October 28, the price of raw material mixed xylene increased by 20.48% and the price of phthalic anhydride increased by 15.56%. The cost of o-xylene increases with the rise of raw material price; The price of phthalic anhydride in the downstream rises, the demand for o-benzene rises, the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain rise together, and the driving force of o-benzene price rise increases.

Market Overview

According to the monitoring of business agency, affected by the favorable crude oil market in October, the price of mixed xylene soared, the cost of o-benzene rose, and the rising pressure of o-benzene continued to increase; The downstream phthalic anhydride price continued to rise, the market of phthalic anhydride was generally good in October, and the operating rate of plasticizer manufacturers increased in October. The demand for phthalic anhydride increased and transmitted to the upstream. The demand for o-xylene increased significantly, stimulating the price rise of o-xylene in October. In the future, the plasticizer market tends to stabilize, the rising power of phthalic anhydride weakens, the demand for o-xylene stabilizes, the recent downward trend of crude oil reappears, the price of mixed xylene may fall, and the future rising pressure of o-xylene price weakens. At the same time, due to the characteristics of o-xylene products, the price will be adjusted at the beginning of the month. Affected by the rising pressure in October, the quotation of o-xylene may be increased at the beginning of November, and then the rising pressure of o-xylene will be released, Or the price of o-xylene will remain stable for a long time in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou decreased. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 60000 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 46666.67 yuan / ton. The price decreased within the week by 22.22%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of yellow phosphorus was lowered in October. Due to the rapid rise in the price of yellow phosphorus last month, there was a strong wait-and-see mood in the yellow phosphorus Market after the National Day this month. Downstream procurement was more cautious and kept the price down, and it was just necessary to take the goods. Traders wait and see, and prices slowly decline. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 45000-46000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 45000-50000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 46000-50000 yuan / ton. The overall market trading of yellow phosphorus is relatively light, and the downstream enterprises are not willing to purchase at high prices, so they just need to take the goods.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic phosphate ore market rose in October. Supported by the continuous tight supply in Guizhou and Guangxi, some mining enterprises raised the prices of medium and high-end phosphate ore freight plants. As of the 26th, the quotation of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plants in Guizhou is around 620-650 yuan / ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate rock freight plants is around 550-600 yuan / ton. The supply of phosphate rock mines is still tight, and the supply contract is dominated by old customer orders. Phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that the probability of significant changes in the domestic phosphorus ore market is small, and the overall operation is dominated in the short term.

In terms of coke, the coke market was stable in October, the coke market price in Shandong Port was temporarily stable, and the inventory in the two ports rebounded slightly. At present, the mainstream spot exchange ex warehouse price of quasi primary coke in the port is 4250-4300 yuan / ton. The port market mentality is weak, the wait-and-see mood is strong, and the overall trading is not active. The quotation of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market is 4270 yuan / ton. The coke market is in strong operation, the expectation of coke enterprises to limit production is stricter, and the future expectation of coke supply is tight. At present, the cost of entering the furnace is high, and the price support mentality of coking enterprises is strong.

In terms of phosphoric acid, in October, the market price of phosphoric acid moved downward, the market gradually cooled down, and the focus moved down rapidly. At present, the production pressure of phosphoric acid manufacturers is reduced, the start-up is improved, the market supply is increased compared with the previous period, the offer of cargo holders is more stable, and some enterprises adjust the quotation in a narrow range according to their own inventory.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the price of yellow phosphorus fell this month, the overall market trading was relatively light, and the downstream enterprises did not have a strong willingness to purchase at high prices. They just needed to take the goods, and traders waited and waited, and the actual transaction price showed a slow downward trend. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be mainly weak in the short term, and there is no lack of possibility of decline.

Trade name: natural rubber (standard I)

Latest price: 13641 yuan / ton

Market analysis: the data monitoring of business agency (100ppi. Com) shows that the current oil price has stabilized after rising, and the global fuel supply is still tight; Following the policy intervention in coal prices last week, the upward momentum of basic raw materials weakened. Since the 19th, natural rubber has mainly weakened, and the market rebounded slightly on the 26th, with a range of about 100-200 yuan / ton. The market said that there are no very prominent influencing factors at present, and today’s small rebound also has an appropriate correction of continuous decline for many days; From the perspective of natural rubber industry, the long and short factors are obvious. From the perspective of supply, the foreign media reported on the 25th that the epidemic situation in beidanian Prefecture of Thailand was severe and the prevention and control was upgraded; Heavy rainfall has blocked rubber cutting activities in Kerala State in southern India. An Indian industry official said that the country’s natural rubber production may be greatly reduced in October and November. China’s domestic production areas will stop cutting in the middle and late of next month, and the support of natural rubber supply side will be strengthened; In terms of import and export, imported rubber has gradually arrived in Hong Kong. The data show that the amount of imported rubber has increased slightly month on month for four consecutive weeks since late September. Next, imported rubber will arrive in Hong Kong one after another, the volume will increase, and the inventory of natural rubber will increase rapidly. In terms of downstream demand, due to the impact of chips, fuel, epidemic situation and many other factors, the demand for cars and tires is weak, which does not play a strong supporting role in rubber.

Future forecast: in the future, we need to pay attention to the macro impact of global monetary policy, the driving role of crude oil and chemicals, the change of the arrival of imported rubber, the change of chip shortage and tight fuel supply, as well as the impact of environmental protection, power restriction and other policies on output. It is expected to show a weak shock trend in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity data monitoring, the titanium dioxide market is basically stable this week, and the domestic titanium dioxide price is 20950 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the titanium dioxide market was basically stable this week. Titanium dioxide enterprises are limited, and the overall market is insufficient. The market demand is relatively light, the downstream enterprises are limited, the operation is poor, the traders are more cautious in taking goods, the wait-and-see mood is more obvious, and they mainly purchase on demand. Up to now, the factory quotation including tax of rutile titanium dioxide in China is 19500-21800 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is between 17600-19500 yuan / ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the titanium concentrate in Panxi area was stable this week. The titanium ore market in Yunnan is relatively cold, the market inquiry is general, manufacturers mostly deliver early orders, and the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong. Up to now, the tax free quotation of 38 grade titanium ore is about 1600-1650 yuan / ton, that of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2360-2380 yuan / ton, and that of 47 grade 20 ore is about 2500-2550 yuan / ton.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price rose this week, the manufacturer’s inventory was general, and the downstream demand was good. The quotation increased from 883.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 888.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.57%, a year-on-year increase of 123.48% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the sulfuric acid market rose this week, and the sulfuric acid commodity index was 138.26 on October 22.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts of business society believe that: at present, the quotation of titanium dioxide market is strong, upstream and downstream purchase on demand, and the manufacturers have strong willingness to rise. Internationally, the demand for foreign trade is acceptable and there is no pressure in the short term. In terms of raw materials, titanium concentrate is temporarily stable, sulfuric acid rises, and the cost pressure of titanium dioxide is large. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will be more wait-and-see and consolidation in the short term.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite remained stable this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 3733.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3733.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, which was flat as a whole.

Recently, the overall high price of domestic soda ash has stabilized, and the rise of cost has slowed down. This week, the market price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite has remained stable. The market price range of domestic industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 3700-4100 yuan / ton, and most prices are concentrated near 3800 yuan / ton. The enterprise inventory remains low, and the overall supply of sodium pyrosulfite market is still tight. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not within their scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact each manufacturer for details).

This week, the price of domestic soda ash increased slightly by 1.43% and the price of sulfur increased by 2.29%. Overall, the rise of upstream raw materials has slowed down, the high cost has gradually stabilized, and the rising trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price will slow down in the future.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the overall rise in the cost of upstream raw materials has slowed down, and the inventory is still low. In the short term, the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to be stable, medium and strong.