Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, the average early trading price of silver market on November 15 was 5100.67 yuan / kg, a decrease of 1.19% compared with the average early trading price of spot market on the previous working day (November 12); Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 8.10%.

On November 15, the spot market price of gold was 381.31 yuan / g, down 0.26% from the spot market price of 382.32 yuan / G on the previous working day (November 12), and an increase of 3.17% from the early average price of 369.60 yuan / G on the spot market price in early November (November 1); Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of gold was 392.70 yuan / g, down 2.90%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

The convergence of precious metal gold and silver is relatively good, the price amplitude of silver is large, and the direction is basically the same. Recently, at the end of September, the price of silver fell rapidly, and the rise and fall of precious metal prices converged. After the return of the national day, the price of silver hit the bottom and rebounded. The fluctuation amplitude of silver price is large, the price trend of gold and silver tends to narrow, and the recent price fluctuation of silver is relatively stable.

List of precious metal gold and silver position data

As of November 12, 2021, the holdings of SPDR gold ETF were 975.99 tons, an increase of 0.58 tons over last week. SLV silver ETF held 17051.96 tons, an increase of 122.33 tons over last week.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Future forecast

International: the PPI of the United States rose 8.6% year-on-year in October and remained at a high level for more than 10 years; In October, CPI soared by 6.2% year-on-year, the largest increase since 1990, and core CPI increased by 4.2% year-on-year. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week was 267000, a new low since the epidemic, and the market expects 260000. In November, the initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 66.8 from 71.7 in October, a 10-year low. Consumers expect inflation to rise to 4.9% in the coming year, the highest level since 2008. Job vacancies in jolts in the United States in September were 10.438 million, higher than the market expectation of 10.3 million.

Domestic: PPI and CPI data are higher than expected, reflecting certain domestic inflation. After the data are released, the price of precious metals has responded. It is expected that the price of precious metals will stabilize in the short term.

Ethylene oxide was lowered twice this week, with a decrease of 1100 yuan / ton. At present, the ex factory price of ethylene oxide in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China is 8500 yuan / ton, and that in Central China is 8700 yuan / ton.

The impact of downstream on the market occupies the mainstream factor. Under the influence of “bimodal La Nina”, many places encounter extreme climate, and heavy snowfall occurs in many places in the north, especially in the northeast. The infrastructure industry is basically paralyzed and the demand is cold. In addition, the monomer production capacity is already excess, and the monomer manufacturers are in a difficult situation and dilemma. The upstream ethylene is weak and volatile, and the supply of ethylene oxide is sufficient. The manufacturers have successively adjusted their sales strategies and sold goods with a small profit. At present, the profit margin of ethylene oxide is around 300 yuan.

The demand side pulls the crotch, and the market has a strong bearish atmosphere. Market participants speculate that the price may continue to decline next week, which does not rule out the possibility of manufacturers limiting production to support the market.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the recent domestic POM market is sideways, and the high spot price remains firm. As of November 11, the average offer price of POM injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 19700 yuan / ton, up or down 0% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream formaldehyde, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell and the market was poor. At present, after the introduction of the new price in Shaanxi and Mongolia, the shipment situation is different, the freight is high, the traders operate carefully, and most downstream purchase on demand. The demand of downstream plate factories was general, the procurement maintained rigid demand, and the formaldehyde market fell.

Upstream formaldehyde fell, and POM cost side support weakened. In terms of industrial load, there are still several polymerization plants whose production lines have not been restored to production after maintenance, the overall operating rate is less than 80%, and the market supply is still insufficient. The tight supply pattern in the site remains unchanged, and there are benefits at the POM supply end. The reference price of Shenhua Ningmei mc90 is about 19300 yuan / ton, with cash withdrawal. The reference price of Tianye Chemical is about 19800 yuan / ton. The ex factory reference price of Yuntianhua M90 is about 20000 yuan / ton, which is subject to firm negotiation. The merchant’s inventory position is not high. Try to make a high offer. The downstream feedback on the high price supply after the rise is general.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market is high and stable, the upstream formaldehyde market is poor, and the cost support of POM is weak. The on-site supply remains low, and the imported materials do not arrive at the port in time, which is good at the supply end. In terms of demand, terminal enterprises just need to take goods, and the actual trading is light, which forms resistance to the rise of spot. POM market is expected to remain high in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, copper prices fell slightly on the 8th, with the spot price of 70690 yuan / ton, down 0.72% from the previous day.

U.S. stocks fell back from high levels, and Lun copper closed down $94 overnight. The weakness of domestic real estate caused demand concerns, as well as the obstruction of copper concentrate transportation in Northwest China, and the accumulation of short-term transportation port inventory. China’s energy shortage and rising electricity prices in Europe also pose the risk of reduced demand from metal users. However, copper inventory is still low, LME inventory continues to decline to nearly 100000 tons, and the inventory in the previous period decreased to the low level of 37000 tons, which supports the copper price. It is expected that the short-term copper price will still be dominated by a wide range of shocks.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of November 9, the reference average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 10266 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on November 7; Compared with November 1 (the reference average price of butanone was 10333 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.65%.

In November, the supply of domestic butanone market was tight to support the market, but the demand side was always general. At the beginning of the month, the domestic butanone market continued to push up, which was weak. On the 3rd, the quotation of individual butanone factories decreased slightly, with a downward range of about 200 yuan / ton. Subsequently, butanone factories in Shandong increased the ex factory price of butanone slightly, and the overall butanone market corrected slightly.

On the 8th of this week, the butanone market operated steadily as a whole. The inventory of butanone market was still tight, the improvement of downstream procurement enthusiasm was limited, the trading atmosphere on the floor was quiet, and the cargo holders operated according to the market and negotiated according to the actual order and quantity. On the 9th, the butanone factory had less shipping pressure, the factory quotation remained strong, the overall trading atmosphere in the market was general, and the downstream small orders were mainly followed up. As of September 9, the butanone market in Shandong had been consolidated and operated. The ex factory price of butanone was around 10100-10300 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of butanone in South China was around 10200-10500 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of butanone in Jiangsu was around 10100-10400 yuan / ton.

According to the business agency, the following are the reference prices of butanone market in some parts of China in November

product region November 9

Butanone Shandong 10100-10300 yuan / ton

Butanone south China 10200-10500 yuan / ton

Butanone Jiangsu 10100-10400 yuan / ton

In the upstream, according to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 5424.00 yuan / ton on November 5 and 5500.00 yuan / ton on November 8, up 1.40% from last Friday and 4.30% from October 1. On August 8, the Shandong civil gas market remained stable on the whole. At the weekend, some manufacturers slightly increased the ex factory quotation according to their own situation, but the overall fluctuation range was limited. At present, the mainstream transaction price of Shandong civil appliances is 5350-5400 yuan / ton, and the downstream maintains replenishment on demand. The manufacturers’ shipment is relatively positive, and the overall transaction atmosphere in the market is mild. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term, or mainly in a narrow range.

Internationally, on November 8, the international oil price rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $81.93/barrel, up US $0.66 or 0.8%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $83.43/barrel, up US $0.69 or 0.83%. The sustained global economic recovery supports energy demand, and the current supply performance is insufficient.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the improvement of transactions in the domestic butanone market is limited. Therefore, the butanone analysts of business society expect that the domestic butanone market will still maintain consolidation and operation in the short term. The specific future trend also needs to pay more attention to inventory and downstream demand.

The spot tin market price (10.29-11.05) fluctuated upward this week. The average price in the domestic market was 2777637.50 yuan / ton last weekend and 290387.50 yuan / ton this weekend, up 4.59% this week.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As shown in the figure above, tin prices have fallen for two consecutive weeks.

The futures market continued to strengthen this week. Although the dollar fluctuated upward at the beginning of the week, the base metals were generally under pressure, and most of the fluctuated downward trend. The spot market followed the trend of the futures market, and the price continued to rebound. However, on November 1, the latest data of LME tin inventory was 680 tons, including 285 tons in Port Klang, which was the lowest in recent 30 years,. Tin prices rebounded on the support of low inventories. The spot market price is rising, and the fear of heights is gradually rising. The market mostly maintains premium shipment, and the transaction is general. Some of the quotation is suspended. The downstream still maintains on-demand procurement, and the transaction is limited within the week. In terms of supply and demand, the import side has not recovered, the import volume continues to be low, the market supply is still tight, and low inventory is the main driver of tin price rise.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 44th week (11.1-11.5) of 2021, there are 13 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including 7 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 31.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were praseodymium neodymium oxide (9.41%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (9.30%) and metal neodymium (8.38%). A total of 9 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 3 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.6% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were silicon (- 22.21%), aluminum (- 7.78%) and zinc (- 5.18%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.67%, and the nonferrous metal market rose more and fell less.

In the future, the business community believes that the impact of power restriction policy on the market has been very small. Tight supply supports the rise of tin price, which is difficult to be alleviated in the short term. It is expected that tin price will still maintain a strong trend of shock.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency: on November 4, the average price of domestic LNG was 7633.33 yuan / ton, compared with 8276.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, the price decreased by 643 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.77%, and an increase of 102.83% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the domestic LNG market rose first and then declined, and then continued to decline, with a decline of about 8% during the week. On Monday, after the rise of feed gas price at the end of October, the domestic liquid price quickly rose to above 8000 yuan / ton, and the increase range of the liquid plant was about 1000 yuan. However, the rise was like a flash in the pan. On Tuesday, it began to fall rapidly, with a daily decrease of about 2% – 3%. Moreover, the liquid plant often adjusted the price twice, spit back most of the increase, and the focus shifted sharply downward. The continuous decline in prices this week was mainly due to the insufficient follow-up of downstream demand. After the sharp jump of the liquid plant, the bottom support was poor, the market trading atmosphere was not high, the liquid plant inventory increased, the sales pressure increased, and continued to reduce prices for shipment. In addition, since the 3rd, Hubei Huanggang liquid plant started sales, the market supply further increased, which was bad for the domestic LNG market. At present, 7200-7750 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 7690-8250 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 7550-8000 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 7630-7750 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 7500-7800 yuan / ton in Hebei and 8300-8700 yuan / ton in Shandong. The inlet gas price is about 6400-8510 yuan / ton. The domestic gas decreases greatly and the imported gas fluctuates.

Downstream products were mixed:

Methanol, the methanol market offer price in southern Shandong is around 3100 yuan / ton, the factory provides cash exchange, Linyi receives the local offer price and delivers it to cash exchange around 3000 yuan / ton, and the logistics offer is not available yet. The atmosphere is average, most of them wait and see. The methanol market in Dongying, Shandong Province negotiated to rise to 2860-2950 yuan / ton and sent to spot exchange. The transaction is general and there are different views. The methanol market in central Shandong increased to 2860-2950 yuan / ton through negotiation and sent to cash exchange. The quotation of the local methanol factory in central Shandong stabilized to 3200-3300 yuan / ton, and the factory provided cash exchange. The transaction was poor.

On the 4th, the market price of liquid ammonia in Shandong continued to decline, and the prices of some manufacturers decreased by 50-100 yuan / ton. The dealer’s offer has declined, and the downstream procurement takes the goods normally, focusing on just demand. At present, with the increase of the manufacturer’s shipment, there are more sources of goods in the market, and the inventory has increased significantly compared with the previous period. At present, the mainstream market price in this region is 4800-4950 yuan / ton. It is expected that the ammonia price may still decline in the near future.

For urea, the ex factory quotation of domestic urea fell on November 3, which was 20 yuan / ton lower than that on November 1, a decrease of 0.72%, and a year-on-year increase of 54.86%. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas have fallen sharply recently, and the cost support has weakened. Urea cost support weakened, downstream demand increased and urea supply decreased. In the future, the ex factory price of domestic urea is expected to decline slightly: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2700 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

LNG analysts of business society believe that: at present, there are insufficient positive expectations, insufficient bottom support after the liquid price rises in the early stage, tired downstream mentality, negative market trading atmosphere and pressure on liquid plant shipments. It is expected that the domestic LNG price will continue to reduce expectations in the short term.

Trade name: isooctanol

Latest price (November 3): 13100.00 yuan / ton

On November 3, the ex factory quotation of isooctanol in Shandong fell, down 366.67 yuan / ton or 2.72% compared with the quotation on November 1. The upstream propylene market rose slightly and the cost support was strengthened. The downstream DOP market fell slightly, and the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement weakened.

Recently, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong may fluctuate slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 13000 yuan / ton.

In October, the domestic Shunding market rose first and then fell. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of cis-polybutadiene rubber was 13220 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and then rose to the highest point of 15380 yuan / ton in the month. At the end of the month, the price fell back to 14820 yuan / ton, an increase of 12.10% over the beginning of the month.

In the middle and early ten days of October, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber market rose sharply in the early stage, and the ex factory price increased frequently. Within the month, the increase range was around 1800 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of business society, as of October 31, the ex factory price of Jihua / Fushun 1502 of PetroChina Northeast sales company was reported as 14700 yuan / ton; Market traders’ offers followed suit. In the middle and late October, with the rising price of Shunding, the downstream resisted the high price of Shunding, mostly purchased on demand, the transaction was slightly deadlocked, and the market price fell slightly at the end of the month

List of commencement of polybutadiene rubber in October.

In October, raw butadiene rose sharply, and the cost side was slightly supported. According to the monitoring of business society, as of October 31, the price of butadiene was 7991 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 14.02% compared with 7008 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest increase in the middle of the month was 20.36%.

In October, the natural rubber market rose and fell. At the beginning of the month, the price was 13184 yuan / ton, rose to 14263 yuan / ton within the month, and fell to 13723 yuan / ton at the end of the month. At the end of the month, it increased by 4.09% compared with the beginning of the month, with the highest increase of 8.94% in the month.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that although the high international crude oil price in October led to a sharp rise in the domestic petrochemical market, the rising momentum of raw butadiene is weak. In addition, the price of natural rubber also surged up and fell, and the supply and demand side is difficult to support the high price Shunding. It is expected that Shunding rubber may continue to fall in the future to find support.

1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of October 31, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha was 7685.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.60% over 6948.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha increased first and then decreased.

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of October 31, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 7325.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.64% over 6805.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of local refining straight run naphtha increased first and then decreased.

On October 31, the naphtha commodity index was 94.85, unchanged from yesterday, down 8.22% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 124.55% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the price of refined naphtha in this month rises first and then decreases. At present, the mainstream price of hydrogenated naphtha is about 7500-7800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 7200-7500 yuan / ton. In the near future, the downstream of the local refining market is mainly purchased on demand. As of the week of October 27, Singapore’s inventory of residual fuel oil (except asphalt), including fuel oil and low sulfur waxy residual oil, increased by 109000 barrels to a seven week high of 21.8 million barrels. During the week, light distillate stocks, including naphtha, gasoline and reformate, fell 157000 barrels to a two-week low of 12.187 million barrels. Medium distillate stocks increased by 976000 barrels to a five week high of 10.786 million barrels.

Upstream: international crude oil prices continued to rise in October. On the one hand, the current situation of global energy supply shortage is difficult to alleviate in the short term, especially natural gas. The European energy crisis is becoming more and more serious, and the EU natural gas inventory has reached the lowest level in recent ten years. Affected by the resonance of energy tension, crude oil inventories continue to decline. At present, OECD oil inventories have reached the lowest level since 2015. Moreover, recently, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies have no new production increase plan, the market supply expectation is still tight, and the crude oil price has risen to the highest level in seven years. On the other hand, the inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) was significantly positive. The U.S. crude oil inventory fell to the lowest level since 2018, superimposed on the increase in refinery demand, and the oil price was strongly supported in the short term. In addition, with the approach of winter in the northern hemisphere and the increase of heating demand, crude oil prices are supported.

Downstream: in October, the price of toluene rose continuously to a high level and fell slightly at the end of the month. On October 1, the price of toluene was 5700 / ton, 6770.2 yuan / ton on October 29, the lowest price in this month was 5700 yuan / ton, and the highest price in this month was 6930 yuan / ton, an increase of 18.78% over the beginning of the month; In October, mixed xylene opened the upward channel, and the price continued to rise in a wide range, falling at the end of the month. On October 1, the price of mixed xylene was 5860 / ton; On October 29, the price was 6830 yuan / ton, the lowest price in this month was 5860 yuan / ton, and the highest price in this month was 7060 yuan / ton, an increase of 16.55% over the beginning of the month; The price of p-xylene rose in October. By the end of the month, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, up 2.82% from 7100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there were 12 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in October 2021, including 10 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 62.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (29.09%), fuel oil (22.54%) and diesel (15.00%). There are 3 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were power coal (- 11.99%), methanol (- 7.27%) and petroleum coke (- 3.69%). The average increase and decrease this month was 6.93%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of the business society, the international crude oil rose sharply in October, supported by the cost of the local refined naphtha market. After the National Day holiday, some businesses just needed to replenish a small amount of goods, and the local refined naphtha market rose sharply; At the end of the month, affected by the decline of international crude oil and downstream product oil, the transaction in naphtha market was negative, the terminal just needed to prepare goods, and the market operation was cautious and mostly wait-and-see. It is expected that the price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha may be dominated by weakness in November.