Zinc prices bottomed out and rebounded this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, the zinc price hit the bottom and rebounded this week, and the zinc market fluctuated and rose. As of November 23, the price of zinc was 23898.00 yuan / ton, up 1.74% from 23490 yuan / ton on November 12; This week, the zinc market recovered and rose, and the zinc price fluctuated and rose.

Glencore zinc equipment has been overhauled again

Impacted by high energy prices, the tide of shutdown affected more areas. Glencore said in a statement sent by e-mail on Monday that the portovesme production line with an annual output of 100000 tons of zinc sulfide will be maintained by the end of December; Glencore equipment maintenance, zinc prices rose.

The output of zinc concentrate decreased month on month

The zinc concentrate output of new century in the third quarter of 2021 was 28900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.06% and a month on month decrease of 8.95%. The zinc concentrate output of Titan mining in the third quarter of 2021 was 1300T, with a year-on-year increase of 18.18% and a month on month increase of 23.81%. Trevali mining’s zinc concentrate output in the third quarter of 2021 was 37400 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 11.22% and a month on month decrease of 5.61%. The output of zinc concentrate of several major mining enterprises decreased month on month in the third quarter, and the supply of zinc city decreased.

Galvanized sheet market fell

According to the data test of business society, the market of galvanized sheet continued to decline in November, limited by the impact of electricity, epidemic situation and demand decline, the output of galvanized sheet continued to decline in November, and the trend continued to decline in October. At present, it has fallen to the lowest level of this year. The demand of zinc market has declined, and there is great downward pressure on zinc market.

Market overview and future forecast

Analysts of business society believe that due to the impact of limited electricity and epidemic situation, the demand of zinc market is weak, the downward pressure of zinc market is large, and the zinc price continued to decline in November; However, on Monday, Glencore announced the overhaul of 100000 tons of zinc sulfide equipment, which greatly reduced the supply expectation of zinc market. The overall supply and demand of zinc city are both weak, but the short-term supply is greatly reduced, which stimulates the sharp rise of zinc price. In the future, concerns about the expansion of the European energy crisis stimulated the rise of zinc prices. Overall, the short-term supply of zinc in the market decreased greatly, and the zinc price fluctuated and rose in the short-term future.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the average price of acetic acid was 7220 yuan / ton on November 19. Compared with 7120 yuan / ton on November 13, it increased by 100 yuan / ton, or 1.40%, and decreased by 5.12% month on month. As of November 19, the market price of acetic acid in various regions in China rose and fell as follows:

region November 13th November 19th

South China 7250-7350 yuan / ton 7150-7250 yuan / ton

North China 7000-7100 yuan / ton 7000-7100 yuan / ton

Shandong region 7000-7150 yuan / ton 7000-7150 yuan / ton

Jiangsu region 7100-7200 yuan / ton 7000-7100 yuan / ton

Zhejiang region 7200-7300 yuan / ton 7100-7200 yuan / ton

The domestic acetic acid market was sorted out and operated. Most of the acetic acid enterprises in the field were mainly on the sidelines for a while. The quotation was stable and small during the week, and the downstream demand continued to be rational. The acetic acid manufacturers negotiated shipment, and the actual transaction price was low. The domestic acetic acid plants operated normally, the market supply was stable, and the delivery of new orders in the field was insufficient. Most of the operators were on the sidelines.

In the downstream, the market of ethyl acetate fluctuated and decreased this week, and the overall price decreased by 0.35% during the week. As of November 19, the price of ethyl acetate in East China was 9616.67 yuan / ton. The manufacturer’s plant started stably, the market supply was sufficient, the downstream demand was weak, the orders were less, and the ethyl acetate Market was weak.

According to the acetic acid analysts of business society, most domestic acetic acid manufacturers operate smoothly, the market supply is stable, while the downstream demand is general, the transaction of new orders in the market is insufficient, the short-term acetic acid market is sorted and operated, and there may be a downward trend in the future. Pay attention to the downstream transaction.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price trend of cryolite in Henan was stable this week. On November 19, the average market price in Henan was 7150.00 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on November 13, the price in the week was flat, with a month-on-month increase of 4.00%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic cryolite market is running strongly, the supply of raw materials is tight, the price is high, and the high cost supports the maintenance of the high cryolite price. At present, the cryolite enterprise inventory is low, and the enterprise maintains negotiation and shipment. As of November 19, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 7000-7600 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan is 6500-8600 yuan / ton. The devices of domestic cryolite enterprises operate normally, the shipment of enterprises is relatively stable, the market supply is tight, and the operators wait and see.

The trend of cryolite is still mainly affected by the upstream. The market of soda ash is weak this week, with the price falling by 2.06% during the week. On the whole, the price is still high. The overall operating rate of the market is slightly lower than last week, the weekly output is reduced, the supply of goods is still tight, and the supply of raw materials is tight, which supports the high operation of cryolite market. In the downstream, the aluminum market was adjusted and lowered. On November 19, the aluminum price was 18553.33 yuan / ton, an overall decrease of 4.51% compared with the price of 19430.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week. The market continued to be weak, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum accumulated. In the downstream, the aluminum market was adjusted downward during the week at the stage of digesting the increase of the early aluminum industry.

3、 Future forecast

The domestic cryolite market remains stable at a high level, and the shortage of upstream raw materials gives strong support to the market. Cryolite enterprises wait and see the market consolidation, and the cryolite trend continues at a high level in the later stage. Pay specific attention to the upstream raw materials.

1、 Price trend

Taking the rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process with large volume in the domestic market as an example, according to the data of the bulk list of business society, the titanium dioxide market is basically stable this week, and the price of domestic titanium dioxide is 20950 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

The titanium dioxide market was basically stable this week. The market demand for titanium dioxide is relatively light. At present, it is in the off-season of titanium dioxide. The market inquiry is general, and the transaction of new orders is weakened. Traders are more cautious in taking goods, wait-and-see and purchase on demand. Up to now, the factory quotation including tax of rutile titanium dioxide in China is 19500-21800 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is between 17600-19500 yuan / ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi area decreased slightly this week. The titanium ore market in Yunnan is relatively cold, the market inquiry is general, manufacturers mostly deliver early orders, and the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong. Up to now, the tax free quotation of 38 grade titanium ore is about 1430-1500 yuan / ton, that of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2280 yuan / ton, and that of 47 grade 20 ore is about 2500-2550 yuan / ton. The downstream titanium dioxide enterprise market is relatively cold, with a strong wait-and-see mood. It mainly purchases on demand, and the overall market operates weakly and stably. It is expected that the price of titanium concentrate will still be reduced slightly in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be mainly discussed.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price fell slightly this week, the upstream sulfur market fell slightly recently, the cost support was insufficient, some sulfuric acid manufacturers had insufficient operation, the load was reduced, the downstream formic acid and bromine market fell slightly, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was weakened. So far, the average price of sulfuric acid in Shandong is 733.33 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts of business society believe that the titanium dioxide market is weak and stable at present. In terms of raw materials, the prices of titanium concentrate and sulfuric acid have been reduced, which is not enough support, and the downstream market is relatively light. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will be more wait-and-see and consolidation in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of November 17, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 17400 yuan / ton, down 0.95% from last Thursday (November 11) and 5.95% from October 17.

The acrylic acid market was weak this week (11.11-11.17). Recently, the price of raw material propylene is weak, the cost support is loose, and the market supply is abundant, but the demand side is light, the downstream buying mentality is cautious, the operation enthusiasm is not high, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the market transaction at high prices is weak, and the price of acrylic acid is weak.

For upstream propylene, the overall propylene market in Shandong decreased by 100 yuan / ton on the 16th, and the average propylene price in Shandong was 7792 yuan / ton, down 1.33% from the 15th. The downstream gas buying is insufficient, especially the weakness of polypropylene, the main demand, is difficult to change. Propylene enterprises take the goods in line with the trend, and the price is reduced. There is no obvious positive effect on the propylene market, and it is expected that the propylene market will be weak in the near future.

According to the acrylic acid analysts of business society, at present, the price of raw propylene is declining, the cost support is insufficient, and the market demand is low, while the supply is relatively sufficient. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be dominated by weak operation in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of November 16, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 19666.67 yuan / ton, down 1.82% compared with the price on Friday (November 12), 5.87% compared with the price on October 16, and 38.88% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

The epichlorohydrin market has fallen recently. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has weakened steadily, the cost side support is general, the price of raw material glycerol is high, the cost pressure is obvious, the downstream operation enthusiasm is not high, the cautious wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, multidimensional just needs to purchase, the enterprise shipment is under pressure, the weak demand side has dragged down the lack of market confidence, and the focus of negotiation is lower.

For upstream propylene, on November 15, the reference price of propylene was 7897.33, down 0.11% compared with the price on November 12 and 3.4% compared with November 1 (8175.50).

Downstream epoxy resin, on November 15, the liquid epoxy resin Market in East China weakened and adjusted, and the offer was negotiated and delivered in barrels of 30500-31000 yuan / ton. The range of dual raw material market was adjusted weakly, including the offer of raw material bisphenol A of 16000 yuan / ton, which was supported by bad cost.

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of business society, to sum up, at present, the cost support of propylene method is loose, and the cost pressure of glycerol method is obvious, but the demand side support is temporarily weak. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may sort out the weak game in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, the average early trading price of silver market on November 15 was 5100.67 yuan / kg, a decrease of 1.19% compared with the average early trading price of spot market on the previous working day (November 12); Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 8.10%.

On November 15, the spot market price of gold was 381.31 yuan / g, down 0.26% from the spot market price of 382.32 yuan / G on the previous working day (November 12), and an increase of 3.17% from the early average price of 369.60 yuan / G on the spot market price in early November (November 1); Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of gold was 392.70 yuan / g, down 2.90%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

The convergence of precious metal gold and silver is relatively good, the price amplitude of silver is large, and the direction is basically the same. Recently, at the end of September, the price of silver fell rapidly, and the rise and fall of precious metal prices converged. After the return of the national day, the price of silver hit the bottom and rebounded. The fluctuation amplitude of silver price is large, the price trend of gold and silver tends to narrow, and the recent price fluctuation of silver is relatively stable.

List of precious metal gold and silver position data

As of November 12, 2021, the holdings of SPDR gold ETF were 975.99 tons, an increase of 0.58 tons over last week. SLV silver ETF held 17051.96 tons, an increase of 122.33 tons over last week.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Future forecast

International: the PPI of the United States rose 8.6% year-on-year in October and remained at a high level for more than 10 years; In October, CPI soared by 6.2% year-on-year, the largest increase since 1990, and core CPI increased by 4.2% year-on-year. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States last week was 267000, a new low since the epidemic, and the market expects 260000. In November, the initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 66.8 from 71.7 in October, a 10-year low. Consumers expect inflation to rise to 4.9% in the coming year, the highest level since 2008. Job vacancies in jolts in the United States in September were 10.438 million, higher than the market expectation of 10.3 million.

Domestic: PPI and CPI data are higher than expected, reflecting certain domestic inflation. After the data are released, the price of precious metals has responded. It is expected that the price of precious metals will stabilize in the short term.

Ethylene oxide was lowered twice this week, with a decrease of 1100 yuan / ton. At present, the ex factory price of ethylene oxide in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China is 8500 yuan / ton, and that in Central China is 8700 yuan / ton.

The impact of downstream on the market occupies the mainstream factor. Under the influence of “bimodal La Nina”, many places encounter extreme climate, and heavy snowfall occurs in many places in the north, especially in the northeast. The infrastructure industry is basically paralyzed and the demand is cold. In addition, the monomer production capacity is already excess, and the monomer manufacturers are in a difficult situation and dilemma. The upstream ethylene is weak and volatile, and the supply of ethylene oxide is sufficient. The manufacturers have successively adjusted their sales strategies and sold goods with a small profit. At present, the profit margin of ethylene oxide is around 300 yuan.

The demand side pulls the crotch, and the market has a strong bearish atmosphere. Market participants speculate that the price may continue to decline next week, which does not rule out the possibility of manufacturers limiting production to support the market.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the recent domestic POM market is sideways, and the high spot price remains firm. As of November 11, the average offer price of POM injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 19700 yuan / ton, up or down 0% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream formaldehyde, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell and the market was poor. At present, after the introduction of the new price in Shaanxi and Mongolia, the shipment situation is different, the freight is high, the traders operate carefully, and most downstream purchase on demand. The demand of downstream plate factories was general, the procurement maintained rigid demand, and the formaldehyde market fell.

Upstream formaldehyde fell, and POM cost side support weakened. In terms of industrial load, there are still several polymerization plants whose production lines have not been restored to production after maintenance, the overall operating rate is less than 80%, and the market supply is still insufficient. The tight supply pattern in the site remains unchanged, and there are benefits at the POM supply end. The reference price of Shenhua Ningmei mc90 is about 19300 yuan / ton, with cash withdrawal. The reference price of Tianye Chemical is about 19800 yuan / ton. The ex factory reference price of Yuntianhua M90 is about 20000 yuan / ton, which is subject to firm negotiation. The merchant’s inventory position is not high. Try to make a high offer. The downstream feedback on the high price supply after the rise is general.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market is high and stable, the upstream formaldehyde market is poor, and the cost support of POM is weak. The on-site supply remains low, and the imported materials do not arrive at the port in time, which is good at the supply end. In terms of demand, terminal enterprises just need to take goods, and the actual trading is light, which forms resistance to the rise of spot. POM market is expected to remain high in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, copper prices fell slightly on the 8th, with the spot price of 70690 yuan / ton, down 0.72% from the previous day.

U.S. stocks fell back from high levels, and Lun copper closed down $94 overnight. The weakness of domestic real estate caused demand concerns, as well as the obstruction of copper concentrate transportation in Northwest China, and the accumulation of short-term transportation port inventory. China’s energy shortage and rising electricity prices in Europe also pose the risk of reduced demand from metal users. However, copper inventory is still low, LME inventory continues to decline to nearly 100000 tons, and the inventory in the previous period decreased to the low level of 37000 tons, which supports the copper price. It is expected that the short-term copper price will still be dominated by a wide range of shocks.