1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business club’s block list, the price of bromine has declined. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 45812.5 yuan / ton, while at the weekend, the average market price was 45187.5 yuan / ton, down 1.36%, up 71.96% over the same period last year. On July 16, the bromine commodity index was 158.55, unchanged from yesterday, down 1.90% from 161.62 (2021-07-01), the highest point in the cycle, and up 169.09% from 58.92, the lowest point on October 29, 2014（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

At present, the domestic bromine is declining, and the current mainstream price of enterprises is about 44000-45000 yuan / ton, and the price of bromine is weaker than that of the previous period. The main reason is that the downstream flame retardants and intermediates start with low load, and the purchase of bromine is reduced. There is a psychological resistance to the long-term rise of bromine. Due to the high temperature in summer, the number of maintenance enterprises in southern China also increases, and the bromine is mainly purchased on demand.

Raw materials: the domestic sulfur market continues to wait and see, and refineries in various regions offer stable prices according to their own shipment situation. Refineries in domestic areas operate normally, traders enter the market to purchase on demand, the external price is firm, and the attitude of the field operators is good. The downstream phosphate fertilizer stock is fair, the spot market is stable, the domestic and export orders perform well, which has good support for sulfur. The sulfur market in the future will wait and see to sort out and operate, and pay attention to the downstream follow-up situation.

Analysts from business news agency believe that the overall supply of bromine is insufficient for a long time, and the supply growth is relatively slow. However, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are under construction, the demand for bromine is reduced, and they are resistant to the high price of bromine. It is expected that the price of bromine in the short term will be weak in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

As of July 7, the overall price of viscose staple fiber showed a downward trend. In recent three months, the price of viscose staple fiber decreased by 2280 yuan / ton, or nearly 14.50%. Since March, the trading volume of textile market has turned weak, and most products have no glory in the future. Since the price of viscose staple fiber reached a high level at the beginning of March, there has been no adjustment, allowing the competitive products and downstream wantonly fall. In April, the sales of viscose staple fiber continued to be sluggish in March, and the price gradually declined.

From the monthly K-bar chart, the price of viscose staple fiber has been on the rise from September 20 to March 21, with a negative drop since April, and the price drop is the most obvious in May, with a drop of 8.85%.

From the perspective of upstream commercial cotton yarn, wood pulp has dropped by 10.66% in the past three months, and the spot price of wood pulp is still in a state of continuous supplement. In June, the performance of the downstream base paper market was weak, there was no obvious fluctuation in the white cardboard and coated paper markets, and the downstream purchasing continued the rigid demand strategy. At the beginning of the month, the price of pulp futures fluctuated weakly, which also made the spot price of wood pulp adjust with the fluctuation of futures price. Then, near the middle of June, the pulp futures price made another effort after several days of silence, and now it is in the downward finishing state, which also leads to the downward trend of the spot price of wood pulp. In the second quarter, the downstream paper products entered the off-season of consumption, the price rise of external quotation slowed down and the pressure of national policy increased, all of which made the price of wood pulp under pressure.

Business analysts believe that the output of viscose staple fiber is expected to remain low in July, but since mid July, the strength of rotation inspection of viscose staple fiber market may gradually slow down, and the overall supply of the industry will still show an upward trend. Since 2021 / 4 / 4, the 7-day moving average has been Undercrossing the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend, but the current two moving average have a trend of opposite. According to 2021 / 7 / 4 calculation, the probability of change of operation situation in the next 7 days (that is, the 7-day moving average crosses the 30 day moving average) is 50.39%（ Note: if the 7-day moving average crosses the 30 day moving average upward, the index will enter the upward channel; If the 7-day moving average crosses the 30 day moving average downward, the index will enter the downward channel.)

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of July 12, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 16033.33 yuan / ton, up 2.39% compared with last Monday (July 5), up 13.71% compared with June 12, and down 12.07% year on year in a three-month cycle.

In June, the overall trend of propylene oxide market fell by 4.90%, and the overall trend of the market first fell and then rose. In July, propylene oxide continued the rising trend in late June and rose slowly. At the beginning of last week, the manufacturers of propylene oxide had no pressure, the orders of downstream polyether increased steadily, and the market price was rising. The middle and lower reaches just need to follow up steadily, and the market was pushed up without pressure. At present, the market supply is tight, the downstream follow-up performance is positive, and the market continued to rise. On the 12th, the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 15200-15300 yuan / ton.

For upstream propylene, Shandong propylene market fluctuated and went down (7.5 ~ 7.9) this week. According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market went down slightly this week, with the market at 7804 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and the average price at the weekend of 7796 yuan / ton, down 0.1%.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the reference price of propylene glycol on July 9 was 16433.33, up 2.28% compared with July 1 (16066.67); For downstream soft foam polyether, on July 12, the market price of soft foam polyether in Shandong rose, the market price of raw material propylene oxide rose, the cost support was strengthened, and the market spot supply was short-term tight, the market price rose. At present, the mainstream quotation of common soft foam polyether in Shandong is around 15700-16000 yuan / ton.

Business community propylene oxide analysts believe that, overall, the current cost side has little impact, the market supply is tight, downstream just need to follow up actively, manufacturers are not under pressure, it is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may rise steadily, more specific trends still need to pay attention to market information guidance.

The cost is weakening, the downstream demand is weak, and the market price of cyclohexanone falls after rising. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of July 9, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market was 10700 yuan / ton, up 0.38% month on month and 78.33% year on year.

As of July 9, domestic cyclohexanone market summary:

region ., Price

East China 10800-11000 yuan / ton in cash

South China 11100-11200 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong Province 10600-10700 yuan / ton in cash

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene fell, from 8700 yuan / ton to 8550 yuan / ton in East China. Downstream, caprolactam started to maintain a low level, chemical fiber demand is light.

The cost support of cyclohexanone is weakening, and the downstream chemical fiber is expected to be mainly purchased at low price. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business community expect that the market of cyclohexanone will still go down in the short term.

According to data monitoring of business news agency, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate remained stable in July. On July 7, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 86600 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 86600 yuan / ton on July 1). On July 7, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90400 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with the beginning of the month (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90400 yuan / ton on July 1). On July 7, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was around 82000-90000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market was around 85000-92000 yuan / ton.

By observing the market changes, the price of lithium carbonate was stable again in July, and the market demand was stable. A few lithium carbonate enterprises slightly increased the price of industrial carbon and electric carbon, but the price of most manufacturers remained stable. In the second half of the year, the domestic market demand for lithium ore may continue to rise, coupled with the limited overseas supply, which makes the domestic spodumene concentrate will continue to be destocked. At present, there is a slight oversupply in the market, so the price remains stable.

The domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market in the lower reaches runs stably at a high level. At present, the spot supply side of the market continues to be tight. The demand in the lower reaches grows steadily, and the market offer is firm. In terms of LiFePO4, the market is mainly stable, LiFePO4 is arranged in a narrow range, the price has no obvious fluctuation, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the negotiation atmosphere is flat.

On July 6, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 220.64, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.53% from 405.10 (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 123.91% from 98.54, the lowest point on October 16, 2014（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business news agency, at present, the market demand for lithium carbonate is stable. Although the upward trend of price is still in progress, due to the increase of lithium carbonate production, the market is oversupplied and the profit margin is further compressed. It is expected that the short-term price of lithium carbonate will still be favorable.

The price of asphalt in some areas of Sinopec increased by 100 yuan / ton in Shandong and 50 yuan / ton in South China, while the price in other areas remained stable. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of July 6, the average spot price of domestic asphalt was 3480 yuan / ton, up 6.10% month on month and 45.76% year on year.

The closing price of asphalt futures was 3550 yuan / ton, up 62 yuan / ton from the previous working day. The asphalt market is slightly strong. Affected by the expected factors of Sinopec’s price rise, the market moves up to the front high pressure level. The short-term crude oil maintains a strong shock trend. There is no obvious bad news on the spot side. The supply of goods is relatively concentrated. Although the demand is limited, the market is still waiting for the demand to pick up, and the forecast futures market maintains a strong shock trend.

The international crude oil is high and strong, and the decrease of the starting load of some refineries drives the supply downward. The overall resource concentration is slightly higher, and the market low-cost resources are limited. The asphalt analysts of the business community expect that the asphalt spot market will be relatively strong in the short term.

Trade name: sulfuric acid

Latest price (July 5): 613.33 yuan / ton

On July 5, the price of sulfuric acid Market in Shandong increased by 10.00 yuan / ton, or 1.66%, compared with the quotation on July 2. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the sulfur market in the upstream has been rising step by step recently, and the cost support is good. Moreover, the bromine market in the downstream is also rising steadily, which has a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid.

Recently, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong may rise slightly, and the average price is about 640 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring of the business society, the price index of the domestic rare earth market rose in early July, the price of PR nd series rare earth rose, the price of heavy rare earth recovered, and the turning point of the domestic rare earth market has been found. According to the rare earth plate index of the business society, the rare earth index on July 1 was 494 points, up 6 points from yesterday, and down 50.60% from the peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), Compared with the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015, it has increased by 82.29%（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

From the rare earth index chart, it can be clearly seen that the domestic rare earth prices picked up in early July, and the prices of mainstream commodities in the rare earth market have increased to varying degrees recently, and the rare earth market has stopped falling and picked up. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic mainstream products such as neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy, praseodymium oxide and metallic praseodymium are gradually rising. As of July 2, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth is 480000 yuan / ton; The price of metal neodymium is 595000 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 487500 yuan / ton; The price of PR nd alloy is 602500 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium is 700000 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium oxide is 570000 yuan / ton, and all products have increased in varying degrees. Most of them have risen for 2 working days in a row. The turning point of domestic light rare earth market is now, and the market price is gradually rising.

The domestic rare earth market has stopped falling and recovered, the inflection point of supply and demand structure is coming, the demand for high-end magnetic materials is increasing, and the profit margin of rare earth industry chain is opening up. In the near future, China’s rare earth quota on the supply side may increase steadily, the supply rigidity is optimized, and the new energy efficiency standards are implemented. The proportion of frequency conversion air conditioners in domestic household appliances and NdFeB penetration rate will continue to increase, and the demand side is expected to continue to rise. The sales of new energy vehicles are relatively normal, and the demand for rare earth is high. The main rare earth raw materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth praseodymium neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. According to statistics, the sales of new energy vehicles are still good. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in May 2021, the sales volume of the automobile industry is expected to reach 2.224 million units, a month on month decrease of 2.1% and a year-on-year increase of 0.5%; From January to may, the cumulative sales volume of the automobile industry is estimated to be 10.951 million, a year-on-year increase of 37.6%. Recently, the downstream demand has increased more than before, and the market price of light rare earth has turned to the rising channel.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price trend of dysprosium in China is getting warmer, and the price of dysprosium oxide is 2.385 million yuan / ton as of the 2nd; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.38 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium metal is 3.265 million yuan / ton. The domestic price of terbium series rises correspondingly. The domestic price of terbium oxide is 6.525 million yuan / ton, and that of metal terbium is 8.3 million yuan / ton. The transaction of domestic rare earth market has improved, the leading magnetic material factory has continued to expand, the demand for replenishment has made the domestic heavy rare earth market prices warmer and higher, coupled with Myanmar’s ban on exports, the global supply of rare earth is more concentrated, and Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, the import source has decreased significantly, the market supply of heavy rare earth on the floor is general, the recent downstream procurement is active, and the market price trend has stopped falling and warmed up.

Recently, the “notice on industrial energy conservation supervision in 2021″ stressed that enterprises in key industries such as iron and steel, non-ferrous metal smelting, petrochemical and chemical industry, building materials and so on should be comprehensively investigated, and special supervision on the implementation of mandatory energy consumption quota standards per unit product should be carried out, so as to finally achieve full coverage of energy conservation supervision of enterprises in key industries during the “14th five year plan”. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the strengthening of government control over the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the overall demand of rare earth products is fair, the downstream demand has increased recently, the phenomenon of replenishment is frequent, and the price of domestic rare earth market has risen.

In 2021, the first batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation total amount control indicators increased significantly, which was related to the strong downstream demand. The Ministry of natural resources issued the total amount control indicators of rare earth mining in 2021. In 2021, the total amount control indicators of the first batch of rare earth mines (rare earth oxide REO, the same below) in China were 84000 tons, including 11490 tons of ionic (mainly medium and heavy rare earth) rare earth mines, The index of rock ore type (light) rare earth ore is 72510 tons. The first batch of tungsten concentrate (tungsten trioxide content 65%, the same below) has a total mining control index of 63000 tons, of which the main mining index is 46890 tons and the comprehensive utilization index is 16110 tons. In 2021, the total amount of rare earth and tungsten mining will continue to be controlled, the national policy will be favorable, and the domestic price of rare earth will rise.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, and the continuous demand, coupled with the normal start of domestic rare earth supply, the recent on-site transactions have increased, and the purchase is active. Business analyst Chen Ling expects that the market price of rare earth will maintain a rising trend in the future.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the large list of business agencies, the domestic PA6 market market adjustment and operation are mainly in June, and spot prices are adjusted narrowly. As of June 30, the main offer price of sample enterprises for Zhongwei 2.75-2.85 was about 15000 yuan / ton, up 2.97% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a rise of 23.29% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

In terms of caprolactam in the upstream, the trend of June was adjusted slightly. At the beginning of the month, international crude oil was stronger, but the benzene external market continued to decline, and the peripheral news was empty. In addition, styrene continued to decline, dragging the center of gravity of pure benzene. In the middle of the middle, the inventory of pure benzene port was low, and the domestic pure benzene price continued to rise, and then the fluctuation and consolidation, and lidocarbonamide stabilized. In the second ten days, the supply of pure benzene decreased continuously and the price was stronger. In addition, some caprolactam enterprises have been overhauled and the supply is tightened. It is expected that caprolactam may continue to rise in the short term.

The raw material caprolactam is narrow and vibrated, and it turns warm at the end of the month. The cost side support of PA6 is still acceptable. The spot market of PA6 in the first ten days was also stable, and the profit of PA6 polymerization enterprises in the next half of the month improved limited. At present, the traditional off-season impact of rubber and plastic industry is still in progress. Downstream factories tend to take goods only, and follow up is slow. The transaction on the site is weak, and the actual delivery and investment are mostly small orders. However, there are still some enterprises in the industry to maintain production lines, and the supply side is good for conventional spinning and slicing products. In addition, the strength of caprolactam at the end of the month, the spot price of PA6 at the end of the month rose.

3、 Post market forecast:

Analysts from business society think: the caprolactam market in the upper reaches of PA6 in June is generally stable and has been strong at the end of the month. PA6 cost side support is acceptable. Affected by off-season, the end-user consumption is low, downstream enterprises just need to buy mainly, the on-site investment is poor, and the wait-and-see mentality is strong. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 will rise in the short term or will be affected by the strong upstream.

Domestic cobalt price rises again

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the cobalt Market in June changed from the weak trend in the early stage, and the cobalt price has been rising continuously since the middle of June. As of June 30, the cobalt price was 365000 yuan / ton, up 6.52% from 342666.66 yuan / ton on June 17. In June, the price of cobalt rose again, whether the cobalt market can usher in another outbreak.

Cobalt market is good and stimulating

According to the statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics, the domestic mobile phone production in May 2021 was 132.533 million, up 16.9% year on year; In the past 21 years, the domestic mobile phone production rose year-on-year, with an increase of more than 10% in the past 21 years.

According to the latest data released by China Automobile Association, in May, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles were 217000, with a year-on-year growth of 1.5 times and 1.6 times respectively, continuing to refresh the historical record of the month. The great increase of new energy vehicle production and sales is good for the cobalt market, and the demand of cobalt market is expected to rise in the future.

According to the statistics of Gaishi automobile, in May, the global new energy vehicle market received good news and continued to recover. The monthly sales of new energy vehicles in all countries showed a three digit year-on-year growth, led by the growth rate of over 600% in the UK; Many countries have reopened, and business confidence has boosted economic recovery. Some government subsidies for electric vehicles and increased investment in crossover vehicles have injected a “booster” into the new energy market. The global new energy vehicle market has a bright future, and the demand for cobalt is expected to rise in the future.

Cobalt Market Risk news

It can be seen from the statistical data released by China Academy of information technology that in May 2021, the domestic market mobile phone shipment volume was 22.968 million, a year-on-year decrease of 32.0%. From January to may, the total domestic market mobile phone shipment volume was 148 million, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%. From the data of the first five months of 2021, the domestic mobile phone market still maintained rapid growth, showing an overall upward trend. However, in April and may 2021, the mobile phone shipment decreased year-on-year, the upward trend of the mobile phone market slowed down, and the upward momentum of the cobalt Market weakened.

According to the data released by the State Administration of market supervision and administration, up to now, Jiangnan motor has recalled some zhongtaiyun 100s electric vehicles, Tesla motor (Beijing) and Tesla motor (Shanghai) have recalled some imported and domestic model 3 and domestic model y electric vehicles, and Zhengzhou Daily has recalled some Shuaike pure electric vehicles, In 2021, the enterprises recalled 1.2838 million defective new energy vehicles, accounting for 22.13% of the total number of new energy vehicles. The recall of new energy vehicles with multi brand, multi quantity and high proportion will make consumers have doubts about the quality of new energy vehicles, or affect the sales of new energy vehicles in the future.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business news agency, believes that with the increase of mobile phone production, the global and domestic markets of new energy vehicles have risen sharply, and the demand for cobalt market has risen, and the cobalt market is more favorable. However, in April and may, the shipment volume of mobile phone market decreased year-on-year, the demand for cobalt in mobile phone market declined, the large-scale recall of new energy vehicles increased consumers’ worry about the quality of new energy vehicles, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the future may not be as expected. Generally speaking, the demand of cobalt market is expected to rise in the future, but the overall rise may not be as expected. The support for the rise of cobalt market is insufficient, and the power for the continuous rise of cobalt price is limited. It is expected that the cobalt price will not break the 400000 yuan mark in the future.